chore(P3): baseline 落库下沉 + MatchPredictPanel 拆分 + 多 worker/CSRF 文档

P3-2 baseline 落库从路由下沉到服务层(predict_baseline 内直接落库),
删除路由层 _persist_baseline,三种模式统一 result.prediction_id,对外 JSON 不变。

P3-1 MatchPredictPanel.PredictionPanel 拆为 OutcomePanel/AgentsPanel/ReasoningPanel
三个子组件,本文件保留 PredictModal/PredictProgress/Spinner,对外导出路径不变。

P3-3 docs 加 ⚠️ 多 worker 陷阱红字 + STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER 环境变量(启动期强制拒绝多 worker)。
P3-4 docs 新增「同站部署 vs 跨站 CSRF」节。

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/MatchPredictPanel.tsx

@@ -6,37 +6,11 @@
  */
 import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 import TeamSideTag from '../../../components/TeamSideTag'
-import type { AgentReport, Match, Prediction } from '../types'
-import { AGENT_LABELS, CN_NUM, OUTCOME_LABEL } from '../types'
-
-/** 置信度细线:0~1 数值的低调可视化 */
-function Meter({ value }: { value: number }) {
-  const pct = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Math.round(value * 100)))
-  return (
-    <div className="h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
-      <div className="h-px bg-press transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${pct}%` }} />
-    </div>
-  )
-}
-
-/** home_edge(-1~1,正=利主队)的可视化:以中线为原点的双向细条 */
-function EdgeBar({ value }: { value: number }) {
-  const v = Math.max(-1, Math.min(1, value))
-  const half = Math.abs(v) * 50
-  return (
-    <div className="relative h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
-      <span className="absolute left-1/2 top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 bg-ink-400" />
-      <span
-        className={`absolute top-0 h-px transition-all duration-500 ${v >= 0 ? 'bg-press' : 'bg-ink-600'}`}
-        style={
-          v >= 0
-            ? { left: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
-            : { right: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
-        }
-      />
-    </div>
-  )
-}
+import type { Match, Prediction } from '../types'
+import { AGENT_LABELS } from '../types'
+import { AgentsPanel } from './AgentsPanel'
+import { OutcomePanel } from './OutcomePanel'
+import { ReasoningPanel } from './ReasoningPanel'
 
 function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
   return (
@@ -53,77 +27,73 @@ function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
 }
 
 /** 胜平负一行文字:选中的红字加方块标记,未选中的退灰 */
-function OutcomeLine({
-  pick,
-  confidence,
+.**
+ * P3-1:PredictionPanel 不再自绘,改为组合三个子组件:
+ *   OutcomePanel(比分/胜平负/成本) / AgentsPanel(专家意见) / ReasoningPanel(终裁/降级)。
+ * 渲染输出与拆分前完全一致(仅降级警示 + 报头 + 元信息仍在此处)。
+ */
+function PredictionPanel({
+  prediction,
+  match,
+  embedded = false,
 }: {
-  pick: string | null
-  confidence: number | null
+  prediction: Prediction
+  match: Match
+  /** 弹窗嵌入模式:弹窗已提供报头,这里省略自带版头 */
+  embedded?: boolean
 }) {
-  const options = ['1', 'X', '2'] as const
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+  const reports = prediction.agent_outputs ?? []
+  const okReports = reports.filter(r => r.status === 'ok')
+
   return (
-    <div>
-      <div className="flex items-baseline justify-center gap-6 sm:gap-10">
-        {options.map(o => {
-          const on = pick === o
-          return (
-            <div key={o} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1">
-              <span className={`flex items-center gap-1.5 text-sm ${on ? 'font-semibold text-press' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
-                {on && <span className="inline-block h-2 w-2 bg-press" aria-hidden="true" />}
-                {OUTCOME_LABEL[o]}
-              </span>
-              {on && confidence !== null && (
-                <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
-                  置信 {Math.round(confidence * 100)}%
-                </span>
-              )}
-            </div>
-          )
-        })}
+    <article className={embedded ? 'bg-paper-50' : 'border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50'}>
+      {!embedded && (
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-2 border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
+        <h3 className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+          预测版 ·
+          <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+          {homeName}
+          <span>对</span>
+          <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+          {awayName}
+        </h3>
+        <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+          {prediction.provider} / {prediction.model}
+          {prediction.latency_ms !== null && ` · ${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`}
+        </span>
       </div>
-      {pick && confidence !== null && (
-        <div className="mx-auto mt-3 max-w-xs">
-          <Meter value={confidence} />
-          <p className="mt-1 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">主观置信度,非统计概率</p>
-        </div>
       )}
-    </div>
-  )
-}
 
-/** 预测成本展示:耗时 + token + 限流余量 */
-function PredictionCost({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
-  const latency = prediction.latency_ms != null ? `${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s` : null
-  const tokens = prediction.prompt_tokens != null || prediction.completion_tokens != null
-    ? `${prediction.prompt_tokens ?? '?'}/${prediction.completion_tokens ?? '?'}`
-    : null
+      <div className="space-y-7 px-4 py-6 sm:px-5">
+        {degraded && (
+          <div className="border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-4 py-3">
+            <p className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-press-dark">
+              {prediction.status === 'failed' ? '预测失败' : '预测降级(degraded)'}
+            </p>
+            <p className="mt-1.5 whitespace-pre-wrap text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+              {prediction.reasoning || '所有专家均无有效数据或调用失败,无法生成可靠比分。'}
+            </p>
+          </div>
+        )}
 
-  if (!latency && !tokens && prediction.rate_limit_remaining == null) return null
+        {!degraded && <OutcomePanel prediction={prediction} match={match} />}
 
-  return (
-    <div className="border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-2xs text-ink-500">
-      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1">
-        {latency && (
-          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
-            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">⏱</span>耗时 {latency}
-          </span>
-        )}
-        {tokens && (
-          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
-            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">Tok</span>prompt/completion: {tokens}
-          </span>
-        )}
-        {prediction.rate_limit_remaining != null && prediction.rate_limit_remaining <= 3 && (
-          <span className="text-press" title="每分钟最多 10 次预测">
-            剩余配额: {prediction.rate_limit_remaining}/10(分钟)
-          </span>
-        )}
+        <p className="text-center text-2xs text-ink-500">
+          `多专家模式 · ${okReports.length}/${reports.length} 路有效`
+          {prediction.prompt_version && ` · prompt ${prediction.prompt_version}`}
+        </p>
+
+        <AgentsPanel prediction={prediction} />
+
+        <ReasoningPanel prediction={prediction} />
       </div>
-    </div>
+    </article>
   )
 }
 
-/** 预测过程阶段(按时长模拟;结果到达即跳到完成) */
 function PredictProgress() {
   const [elapsed, setElapsed] = useState(0)
   useEffect(() => {
@@ -199,256 +169,6 @@ function PredictProgress() {
     </div>
   )
 }
-
-const STATUS_BADGE: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
-  ok: { label: '正常', cls: 'text-ink-500' },
-  no_data: { label: '无数据', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
-  error: { label: '调用失败', cls: 'text-press' },
-  parse_error: { label: '解析失败', cls: 'text-press' },
-}
-
-const SUFFICIENCY_LABEL: Record<string, string> = {
-  high: '充分',
-  medium: '一般',
-  low: '偏少',
-  none: '无',
-}
-
-/** 单路专家意见:汉字编号 + 细线行 */
-function AgentCard({ report: r, no }: { report: AgentReport; no: string }) {
-  const badge = STATUS_BADGE[r.status] ?? { label: r.status, cls: 'text-ink-400' }
-  const inactive = r.status !== 'ok'
-
-  return (
-    <details className="group border-b border-ink-200">
-      <summary className="flex cursor-pointer list-none items-baseline gap-2.5 px-1 py-3">
-        <span className="font-serif text-sm text-ink-400">{no}</span>
-        <span className="text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{AGENT_LABELS[r.agent] ?? r.agent}</span>
-        <span className={`text-2xs ${badge.cls}`}>{badge.label}</span>
-
-        <span className="ml-auto flex items-baseline gap-3 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
-          {r.status === 'ok' && r.subjective_confidence !== null && (
-            <span>信心 {Math.round(r.subjective_confidence * 100)}%</span>
-          )}
-          {r.status === 'ok' && r.probable_score && (
-            <span className="font-serif font-bold text-ink-800">{r.probable_score}</span>
-          )}
-          <svg viewBox="0 0 20 20" className="h-3 w-3 self-center text-ink-300 transition-transform group-open:rotate-90" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true">
-            <path d="M7.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0l4 4a1 1 0 010 1.4l-4 4a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L10.6 10 7.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
-          </svg>
-        </span>
-      </summary>
-
-      <div className="space-y-3 px-1 pb-4 pl-7">
-        {/* 无数据 / 失败时给出明确说明,避免用户以为是空白 bug */}
-        {inactive && (
-          <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
-            {r.status === 'no_data' && '该维度没有可用数据,已跳过 LLM 分析以节省额度(不影响其他专家)。'}
-            {r.status === 'error' && '该专家调用失败,本次结论未纳入其视角(fail-open 设计,不阻断整体预测)。'}
-            {r.status === 'parse_error' && '模型输出未通过格式校验,该报告已丢弃。'}
-          </p>
-        )}
-
-        {!inactive && r.home_edge !== null && (
-          <div>
-            <div className="mb-1.5 flex items-baseline justify-between text-2xs">
-              <span className="text-ink-500">主队优势</span>
-              <span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${r.home_edge > 0 ? 'text-press' : r.home_edge < 0 ? 'text-ink-700' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
-                {r.home_edge > 0 ? '+' : ''}{r.home_edge.toFixed(2)}
-              </span>
-            </div>
-            <EdgeBar value={r.home_edge} />
-            <div className="mt-1 flex justify-between text-2xs text-ink-400">
-              <span>利客队</span>
-              <span>利主队</span>
-            </div>
-          </div>
-        )}
-
-        {r.analysis && (
-          <p className="font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{r.analysis}</p>
-        )}
-
-        {r.key_evidence.length > 0 && (
-          <ul className="space-y-1.5">
-            {r.key_evidence.map((e, i) => (
-              <li key={i} className="flex gap-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
-                <span className="flex-shrink-0 text-ink-300" aria-hidden="true">—</span>
-                <span>{e}</span>
-              </li>
-            ))}
-          </ul>
-        )}
-
-        {r.exp_home_goals !== null && r.exp_away_goals !== null && (
-          <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">
-            进球期望 <span className="font-serif font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{r.exp_home_goals.toFixed(1)} - {r.exp_away_goals.toFixed(1)}</span>
-          </p>
-        )}
-
-        {!inactive && (
-          <p className="border-t border-ink-100 pt-2.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">
-            数据充分度 {SUFFICIENCY_LABEL[r.data_sufficiency] ?? r.data_sufficiency}
-            <span className="mx-2 text-ink-200">|</span>
-            <span className="font-mono">{r.model}</span>
-            {r.latency_ms !== null && <span className="ml-2 tabular-nums">{r.latency_ms}ms</span>}
-          </p>
-        )}
-      </div>
-    </details>
-  )
-}
-
-function PredictionPanel({
-  prediction,
-  match,
-  embedded = false,
-}: {
-  prediction: Prediction
-  match: Match
-  /** 弹窗嵌入模式:弹窗已提供报头,这里省略自带版头 */
-  embedded?: boolean
-}) {
-  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
-  const [expertsOpen, setExpertsOpen] = useState(false)
-  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
-  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
-  const reports = prediction.agent_outputs ?? []
-  const okReports = reports.filter(r => r.status === 'ok')
-
-  return (
-    <article className={embedded ? 'bg-paper-50' : 'border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50'}>
-      {!embedded && (
-      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-2 border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
-        <h3 className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
-          预测版 ·
-          <TeamSideTag side="home" />
-          {homeName}
-          <span>对</span>
-          <TeamSideTag side="away" />
-          {awayName}
-        </h3>
-        <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
-          {prediction.provider} / {prediction.model}
-          {prediction.latency_ms !== null && ` · ${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`}
-        </span>
-      </div>
-      )}
-
-      <div className="space-y-7 px-4 py-6 sm:px-5">
-        {/* ── degraded / failed 态:醒目警示 + 原因,不展示虚假比分 ── */}
-        {degraded && (
-          <div className="border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-4 py-3">
-            <p className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-press-dark">
-              {prediction.status === 'failed' ? '预测失败' : '预测降级(degraded)'}
-            </p>
-            <p className="mt-1.5 whitespace-pre-wrap text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
-              {prediction.reasoning || '所有专家均无有效数据或调用失败,无法生成可靠比分。'}
-            </p>
-          </div>
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 主结论(仅 success 展示) ── */}
-        {!degraded && (
-          <>
-            <div className="text-center">
-              <p className="font-serif text-5xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900 sm:text-6xl">
-                {prediction.pred_home_goals ?? '-'}
-                <span className="mx-3 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>
-                {prediction.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}
-              </p>
-              <p className="mt-3 text-2xs tracking-[0.5em] text-ink-400">预测比分</p>
-              {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals != null && prediction.alt_pred_away_goals != null && (
-                <p className="mt-2 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
-                  备选{' '}
-                  <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-600">
-                    {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals}<span className="mx-0.5 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>{prediction.alt_pred_away_goals}
-                  </span>
-                </p>
-              )}
-            </div>
-
-            <div className="border-y border-ink-200 py-4">
-              <OutcomeLine pick={prediction.pred_1x2} confidence={prediction.subjective_confidence} />
-            </div>
-          </>
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 成本信息(耗时 + token + 限流余量) ── */}
-        {!degraded && (
-          <PredictionCost prediction={prediction} />
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 元信息 ── */}
-        <p className="text-center text-2xs text-ink-500">
-          `多专家模式 · ${okReports.length}/${reports.length} 路有效`
-          {prediction.prompt_version && ` · prompt ${prediction.prompt_version}`}
-        </p>
-
-        {/* ── 终裁/降级说明意见 ── */}
-        {prediction.reasoning && degraded && (
-          <section>
-            <h4 className="section-head mb-2">降级原因</h4>
-            <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
-              <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
-            </blockquote>
-          </section>
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 专家意见(多模式):可折叠 + 状态摘要 + 权重条形图 ── */}
-        {reports.length > 0 && (
-          <section>
-            <button
-              onClick={() => setExpertsOpen(o => !o)}
-              className="flex w-full items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 pb-2 text-left"
-            >
-              <span className="section-head mb-0">五路专家意见({okReports.length}/{reports.length} 路有效)</span>
-              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">{expertsOpen ? '收起' : '展开'}</span>
-            </button>
-
-            {/* 权重条形图(仅 success 且有权重时显示) */}
-            {!degraded && prediction.agent_weights && Object.keys(prediction.agent_weights).length > 0 && (
-              <div className="mt-3 space-y-1.5">
-                <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">终裁权重分布</span>
-                {Object.entries(prediction.agent_weights)
-                  .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])
-                  .map(([k, v]) => (
-                    <div key={k} className="grid grid-cols-[96px_minmax(0,1fr)_40px] items-center gap-2">
-                      <span className="truncate text-2xs text-ink-500">{AGENT_LABELS[k] ?? k}</span>
-                      <div className="h-1.5 bg-paper-100">
-                        <div className="h-full bg-press" style={{ width: `${Math.round(v * 100)}%` }} />
-                      </div>
-                      <span className="text-right text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">{Math.round(v * 100)}%</span>
-                    </div>
-                  ))}
-              </div>
-            )}
-
-            {expertsOpen && (
-              <div className="mt-2">
-                {reports.map((r, i) => (
-                  <AgentCard key={r.agent} report={r} no={CN_NUM[i] ?? String(i + 1)} />
-                ))}
-              </div>
-            )}
-          </section>
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 终裁意见(success) ── */}
-        {prediction.reasoning && !degraded && (
-          <section>
-            <h4 className="section-head mb-3">终裁意见</h4>
-            <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
-              <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
-            </blockquote>
-          </section>
-        )}
-      </div>
-    </article>
-  )
-}
-
-/** 预测弹窗:进行中显示过程可视化,完成后显示预测版,失败显示原因 */
 export function PredictModal({
   match,
   predicting,