fix(P0-01): missing score 不得变 0:0 — score_status + CHECK 约束

新增 matches.score_status(known/missing/unknown):
- 替换 ck_matches_finished_has_score 为 ck_matches_score_integrity:
  known → 必须有分; missing/unknown → goals 必须 NULL(不伪造 0:0)
- normalize: 完赛缺分不再静默降级为 scheduled,改设 score_status=missing
- events ingest: 创建/更新 Match 同步 score_status(比分由缺变 known / 确认缺分 missing)
- slices(form/h2h/home_away)/backtest: 显式加 score_status='known' 过滤完赛样本
- 迁移 0022 回填现有数据(绝不 UPDATE goals=0)

测试 tests/test_p0_score_status.py(9/9):约束存在性/Match 构造/normalize 行为。
54 相关测试全绿。

alembic/versions/0022_match_score_status.py

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+"""P0-01: 比分可信度——score_status + 允许完赛缺分(NULL,禁止伪造 0:0)
+
+替换 ck_matches_finished_has_score:引入 score_status(known/missing/unknown),
+完赛 + score_status=missing 时 home/away_goals 必须 NULL(不伪造比分)。
+
+Revision ID: 0022_match_score_status
+Revises: 0021_match_source_event_id_unique
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0022_match_score_status'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0021_match_source_event_id_unique'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 1) 新增 score_status 列(默认 unknown)
+    op.add_column(
+        'matches',
+        sa.Column('score_status', sa.String(20), server_default='unknown', nullable=False),
+    )
+
+    # 2) 按现有数据回填 score_status(绝不写 goals=0):
+    #    - 有比分(两列均非 NULL) → known
+    #    - 无比分 + 完赛 → missing(缺分)
+    #    - 其余 → unknown
+    op.execute(
+        "UPDATE matches SET score_status = 'known'"
+        " WHERE home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL"
+    )
+    op.execute(
+        "UPDATE matches SET score_status = 'missing'"
+        " WHERE match_status = 'finished' AND home_goals IS NULL AND away_goals IS NULL"
+    )
+
+    # 3) 删除旧约束,加新约束
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_finished_has_score', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_score_status_enum', 'matches',
+        "score_status IN ('known', 'missing', 'unknown')",
+    )
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_score_integrity', 'matches',
+        "match_status <> 'finished'"
+        " OR (score_status = 'known' AND home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)"
+        " OR (score_status IN ('missing', 'unknown') AND home_goals IS NULL AND away_goals IS NULL)",
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_score_integrity', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_score_status_enum', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_finished_has_score', 'matches',
+        "match_status <> 'finished' OR (home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)",
+    )
+    op.remove_column('matches', 'score_status')

src/data/bzzoiro_events.py

@@ -202,6 +202,7 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                         match_date=nm.date,
                         match_date_date=_to_date(nm.date),
                         match_status=nm.match_status,
+                        score_status=nm.score_status,
                         home_goals=nm.home_goals,
                         away_goals=nm.away_goals,
                         home_ht_goals=nm.home_ht_goals,
@@ -238,6 +239,16 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                         existing_match.away_goals = nm.away_goals
                         existing_match.home_ht_goals = nm.home_ht_goals
                         existing_match.away_ht_goals = nm.away_ht_goals
+                        # 比分由缺变有 → 标记 known
+                        existing_match.score_status = "known"
+                        changed = True
+                    elif (
+                        nm.match_status == "finished"
+                        and nm.home_goals is None
+                        and existing_match.score_status == "unknown"
+                    ):
+                        # 确认完赛仍缺分 → 标记 missing(不伪造 0:0)
+                        existing_match.score_status = "missing"
                         changed = True
                     if existing_match.match_stage is None and nm.match_stage:
                         existing_match.match_stage = nm.match_stage

src/data/normalize.py

@@ -35,6 +35,8 @@ class NormalizedMatch:
     home_team: str
     away_team: str
     match_status: str = "finished"
+    # P0-01:比分可信度。known=可靠比分;missing=完赛缺分;unknown=待定。
+    score_status: str = "unknown"
     home_goals: int | None = None
     away_goals: int | None = None
     season_label: str = ""
@@ -217,5 +219,11 @@ def normalize_bzzoiro(raw: dict, league_type: str) -> NormalizedMatch | None:
     m.away_red_cards = _to_int(raw.get("away_red_cards", raw.get("red_cards_away")))
 
     if m.match_status == "finished" and m.home_goals is None:
-        m.match_status = "scheduled"
+        # P0-01: 完赛缺分不再静默降级为 scheduled(那会丢失「已完赛」事实);
+        # 保留 status=finished,score_status=missing,goals=NULL(禁止伪造 0:0)。
+        m.score_status = "missing"
+    elif m.home_goals is not None and m.away_goals is not None:
+        m.score_status = "known"
+    else:
+        m.score_status = "unknown"
     return m

src/db/models.py

@@ -88,6 +88,9 @@ class Match(Base):
         index=True,
     )
     match_status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(20), default="scheduled")
+    # P0-01:比分可信度标记。known=有可靠比分;missing=完赛但缺分(保留 NULL 不伪造 0:0);
+    # unknown=待定(无比分且未确认完赛)。禁止把缺分写成 0:0。
+    score_status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(20), server_default="unknown", nullable=False)
     home_goals: Mapped[int | None] = mapped_column(Integer)
     away_goals: Mapped[int | None] = mapped_column(Integer)
     home_ht_goals: Mapped[int | None] = mapped_column(Integer)
@@ -127,10 +130,19 @@ class Match(Base):
             "match_date_date",
             unique=True,
         ),
-        # DB-5: 数据库级约束 — 已完赛比赛必须有比分
+        # P0-01:比分可信度约束(替代原 ck_matches_finished_has_score):
+        #   - score_status=known → 必须有比分(非 NULL)
+        #   - score_status=missing → 必须 NULL(完赛缺分,禁止伪造 0:0)
+        #   - score_status=unknown → 必须 NULL
         CheckConstraint(
-            "match_status <> 'finished' OR (home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)",
+            "score_status IN ('known', 'missing', 'unknown')",
-            name="ck_matches_finished_has_score",
+            name="ck_matches_score_status_enum",
+        ),
+        CheckConstraint(
+            "match_status <> 'finished'"
+            " OR (score_status = 'known' AND home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)"
+            " OR (score_status IN ('missing', 'unknown') AND home_goals IS NULL AND away_goals IS NULL)",
+            name="ck_matches_score_integrity",
         ),
         CheckConstraint(
             "match_status IN ('finished', 'scheduled', 'in_play', 'paused', 'postponed', 'cancelled', 'suspended')",

src/llm/backtest.py

@@ -130,6 +130,7 @@ async def _get_historical_matches(
             selectinload(Match.away_team),
         )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        .where(Match.score_status == "known")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .where(Match.away_goals.is_not(None))
     )

src/llm/slices/form.py

@@ -74,6 +74,7 @@ async def _get_form(db, team_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) -> list[Match]:
             selectinload(Match.away_team),
         )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        .where(Match.score_status == "known")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .where((Match.home_team_id == team_id) | (Match.away_team_id == team_id))
         .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())

src/llm/slices/h2h.py

@@ -74,6 +74,7 @@ async def _get_h2h(db, home_id: int, away_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) ->
             selectinload(Match.away_team),
         )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        .where(Match.score_status == "known")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .where(
             ((Match.home_team_id == home_id) & (Match.away_team_id == away_id))

src/llm/slices/home_away.py

@@ -68,6 +68,7 @@ async def _get_home_away(db, team_id: int, side: str, before, *, limit: int = 10
             selectinload(Match.away_team),
         )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        .where(Match.score_status == "known")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
         .limit(limit)

tests/test_p0_score_status.py

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+"""P0-01 回归测试: missing score 不得变 0:0。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p0_score_status.py -v
+(无需真实 PG;用 fake DB + 模型元数据断言。)
+"""
+import pytest
+
+from src.db.models import League, Match, Team
+
+
+# ── fake DB(对齐现有测试约定) ────────────────────────────────────
+class _FakeResult:
+    def __init__(self, items): self._items = list(items)
+    def scalars(self): return self
+    def all(self): return list(self._items)
+    def scalar_one_or_none(self): return self._items[0] if self._items else None
+
+
+class _FakeDB:
+    def __init__(self): self.added = []
+    def add(self, obj): self.added.append(obj)
+    async def execute(self, stmt): return _FakeResult([])
+    async def flush(self):
+        for o in self.added:
+            if getattr(o, "id", None) is None:
+                o.id = 1
+
+
+def _league(lid=1):
+    lg = League(id=lid, code="E0", name="Test", country="X")
+    return lg
+
+
+def _teams():
+    return Team(id=10, name="Arsenal FC", name_zh="阿森纳"), Team(id=20, name="Chelsea FC", name_zh="切尔西")
+
+
+class TestScoreStatusConstraintPresence:
+    """模型必须定义 score_status 相关 CHECK 约束。"""
+
+    def test_score_status_column_exists(self):
+        cols = {c.name for c in Match.__table__.columns}
+        assert "score_status" in cols
+
+    def test_score_integrity_check_exists(self):
+        names = {c.name for c in Match.__table__.constraints if c.name}
+        # 新约束 ck_matches_score_integrity 必须存在
+        assert any("score_integrity" in n for n in names), \
+            f"ck_matches_score_integrity 未找到,现有约束: {names}"
+
+    def test_old_finished_has_score_check_removed(self):
+        names = {c.name for c in Match.__table__.constraints}
+        assert "ck_matches_finished_has_score" not in names, \
+            "旧约束 ck_matches_finished_has_score 应已被替换"
+
+
+class TestMatchAcceptsMissingScore:
+    """Match 对象层面: 完赛 + score_status=missing + goals=NULL 必须可构造。"""
+
+    def test_construct_finished_missing_null_goals(self):
+        home, away = _teams()
+        m = Match(
+            id=1, league_id=_league().id, home_team_id=home.id, away_team_id=away.id,
+            match_date="2026-01-01 15:00:00+00:00",
+            match_status="finished", score_status="missing",
+            home_goals=None, away_goals=None,
+        )
+        assert m.home_goals is None
+        assert m.away_goals is None
+        assert m.score_status == "missing"
+
+    def test_add_to_fake_db(self):
+        db = _FakeDB()
+        home, away = _teams()
+        m = Match(
+            league_id=_league().id, home_team_id=home.id, away_team_id=away.id,
+            match_date="2026-01-01 15:00:00+00:00",
+            match_status="finished", score_status="missing",
+            home_goals=None, away_goals=None,
+        )
+        db.add(m)
+
+    def test_server_default_is_unknown(self):
+        """score_status 列的 server_default 必须为 unknown(DB 插入未显式赋值时兜底)。"""
+        col = Match.__table__.c.score_status
+        assert col.server_default is not None
+        assert "unknown" in str(col.server_default.arg)
+
+
+class TestNormalizeNoDowngrade:
+    """normalize_bzzoiro 不得把完赛缺分静默降级为 scheduled。"""
+
+    def _raw(self, status="finished", home_score=None, away_score=None):
+        return {
+            "event_date": "2026-01-01 15:00:00",
+            "status": status,
+            "home_team": "Arsenal",
+            "away_team": "Chelsea",
+            "home_score": home_score,
+            "away_score": away_score,
+        }
+
+    def test_finished_missing_score_keeps_finished(self):
+        from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
+        m = normalize_bzzoiro(self._raw("finished", None, None), "E0")
+        assert m is not None
+        assert m.match_status == "finished", "完赛缺分不得降级为 scheduled"
+        assert m.score_status == "missing"
+        assert m.home_goals is None
+        assert m.away_goals is None
+
+    def test_finished_with_score_is_known(self):
+        from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
+        m = normalize_bzzoiro(self._raw("finished", 2, 1), "E0")
+        assert m.match_status == "finished"
+        assert m.score_status == "known"
+        assert m.home_goals == 2 and m.away_goals == 1
+
+    def test_scheduled_no_score_is_unknown(self):
+        from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
+        m = normalize_bzzoiro(self._raw("scheduled", None, None), "E0")
+        assert m.match_status == "scheduled"
+        assert m.score_status == "unknown"
+        assert m.home_goals is None