diff --git a/src/api/routes/predict.py b/src/api/routes/predict.py
index 3204df3..a599c75 100644
--- a/src/api/routes/predict.py
+++ b/src/api/routes/predict.py
@@ -2,10 +2,12 @@
 
 安全改进:
   - 限流: 每分钟 10 次 / IP(内存实现)
+  - P1-D: 全局 LLM 并发限制(默认 4),防止过多并发 LLM 调用压垮服务
   - DB 连接: 短 session 模式,LLM 调用期间不持有连接
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+import asyncio
 import logging
 
 from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException, Query, Request
@@ -22,6 +24,21 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1", tags=["predict"])
 
+# P1-D: 全局 LLM 并发限制。与 orchestrator 内的 match 级 Semaphore(8) 并存,
+# 此处在路由层限制单实例全 LLM 调用(所有模式汇总),默认 4。
+_GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE = asyncio.Semaphore(4)
+
+
+async def _predict_with_concurrency(req: PredictRequest) -> PredictResult:
+    """P1-D: 在全局 LLM 并发限制下执行预测。"""
+    async with _GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE:
+        return await predict_match(
+            req.match_id,
+            model=req.model,
+            prompt_version=req.prompt_version,
+            mode=req.mode,
+        )
+
 
 @router.post("/predict", response_model=PredictOut, dependencies=[Depends(rate_limit_predict)])
 async def predict(req: PredictRequest, request: Request):
@@ -42,14 +59,9 @@ async def predict(req: PredictRequest, request: Request):
         if m.match_status == "finished":
             raise HTTPException(400, "该比赛已完赛,不再支持预测")
 
-    # 2. 预测调用(不持有任何 DB 连接)
+    # 2. 预测调用(不持有任何 DB 连接,受全局 LLM 并发限制)
     try:
-        result = await predict_match(
-            req.match_id,
-            model=req.model,
-            prompt_version=req.prompt_version,
-            mode=req.mode,
-        )
+        result = await _predict_with_concurrency(req)
     except ValueError as e:
         msg = str(e)
         if "已结算" in msg:
diff --git a/src/api/schemas.py b/src/api/schemas.py
index 4ec0e2a..2c55eaf 100644
--- a/src/api/schemas.py
+++ b/src/api/schemas.py
@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ class MatchListOut(BaseModel):
 
 class PredictRequest(BaseModel):
     match_id: int
-    provider: str | None = None
+    # P1-D: 删除未接线的 provider 字段(符合"名不副实则删除");provider 由服务端配置决定。
     model: str | None = None
     prompt_version: str | None = None
     mode: str = Field(
diff --git a/tests/test_p1_d_concurrency.py b/tests/test_p1_d_concurrency.py
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..ebd6500
--- /dev/null
+++ b/tests/test_p1_d_concurrency.py
@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+"""P1-D 回归测试: 全局 LLM 并发限制 + provider 字段已删除。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p1_d_concurrency.py -v
+"""
+import asyncio
+from unittest.mock import patch
+
+import pytest
+
+from src.api.routes import predict as predict_mod
+
+
+class TestGlobalLLMConcurrency:
+    """P1-D: 全局 LLM 并发限制(默认 4)。"""
+
+    def test_semaphore_exists_with_limit(self):
+        """路由模块必须存在 _GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE 且 value <= 4。"""
+        assert hasattr(predict_mod, "_GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE")
+        sem = predict_mod._GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE
+        assert isinstance(sem, asyncio.Semaphore)
+        assert sem._value == 4, f"期望并发限制 4,实际 {sem._value}"
+
+    def test_predict_with_concurrency_limits_parallel(self):
+        """P1-D: 并发调用 _predict_with_concurrency 不得超过信号量限制。"""
+        max_concurrent = 0
+        current = 0
+        lock = asyncio.Lock()
+
+        async def fake_predict(match_id, **kwargs):
+            nonlocal current, max_concurrent
+            async with lock:
+                current += 1
+                max_concurrent = max(max_concurrent, current)
+            await asyncio.sleep(0.05)  # 模拟 LLM 调用
+            async with lock:
+                current -= 1
+            return type("R", (), {"prediction_id": 1, "provider": "p", "model": "m",
+                                  "prompt_version": "v1", "pred_home_goals": 1.0,
+                                  "pred_away_goals": 0.0, "pred_1x2": "1",
+                                  "subjective_confidence": 0.5, "reasoning": "",
+                                  "status": "success", "context": "",
+                                  "latency_ms": 0, "raw": {}})()
+
+        req = type("Req", (), {"match_id": 1, "model": None, "prompt_version": None, "mode": "single"})()
+
+        async def run():
+            with patch.object(predict_mod, "predict_match", fake_predict):
+                # 启动 10 个并发请求
+                tasks = [predict_mod._predict_with_concurrency(req) for _ in range(10)]
+                await asyncio.gather(*tasks)
+
+        asyncio.run(run())
+        # 最大并发不得超过信号量限制(4)
+        assert max_concurrent <= 4, f"并发 {max_concurrent} 超过限制 4"
+
+
+class TestProviderFieldRemoved:
+    """P1-D: PredictRequest 的 provider 字段必须已删除(未接线)。"""
+
+    def test_predict_request_no_provider(self):
+        from src.api.schemas import PredictRequest
+
+        fields = set(PredictRequest.model_fields.keys())
+        assert "provider" not in fields, f"PredictRequest 应已删除 provider 字段,现有: {fields}"
+
+    def test_predict_request_still_has_core_fields(self):
+        from src.api.schemas import PredictRequest
+
+        fields = set(PredictRequest.model_fields.keys())
+        for required in ("match_id", "model", "prompt_version", "mode"):
+            assert required in fields, f"缺少核心字段 {required}"