全量修复:预测系统正确性、安全性与部署问题

P0 严重问题修复: - 修复 form_slice/stats_slice 主客身份反转(历史比赛视角错误) - 修复 understat.py httpx 未导入导致的 NameError - 修复 LLM 解析失败时静默产生假成功预测(0-0 平局+置信度0.5) 预测路径修复: - multi-agent 路径增加 backtest cutoff 透传,回测防泄漏生效 - H2H 切片汇总统计改为从当前主队视角计数 - 预测唯一约束增加 mode+run_type 维度,防止回测覆盖实盘预测伤停管线修复: - IntegrityError 后不再整批回滚丢数据(改用逐条 flush) - return_date 正确解析并写入 - retrieved_at 比较统一用 date() 避免当天数据不可见 - 唯一索引改为 partial unique index(排除 NULL 重复) - HTTP 缓存 TTL 从 7 天改为 6 小时安全与连接管理: - /api/v1/predict 增加内存滑动窗口限流(10次/分钟/IP) - 预测路由改用短 session 模式,LLM 调用期间不持有 DB 连接 Docker 部署修复: - 修复 .dockerignore 排除 *.md 导致 COPY README.md 失败 - 容器内 DATABASE_URL 使用 postgres 服务名(非 localhost) - 启动时自动执行 alembic upgrade head - 前端改用多阶段构建(Dockerfile.frontend) 新增测试(5个文件,24+用例): - test_p0_home_away.py: 主客身份反转回归测试 - test_p0_parse_failure.py: LLM 解析失败回归测试 - test_multi_agent_cutoff.py: multi-agent cutoff 透传测试 - test_h2h_perspective.py: H2H 视角测试 - test_injuries_pipeline.py: 伤停管线 5 项修复测试 - test_predict_protection.py: 限流+短 session 测试 - test_prediction_unique_constraint.py: 唯一约束测试迁移: - 0012_injuries_partial_unique_and_return_date.py - 0013_predictions_unique_constraint_mode_run_type.py
2026-09-19 06:43:55 +00:00
parent 11efe91ce9
commit bee330f31f
27 changed files with 1666 additions and 137 deletions
@@ -0,0 +1,227 @@
+"""回归测试: multi-agent 预测路径 backtest cutoff / provider / model 透传。
+
+验证:
+  1. predict_match_multi 正确计算并传递 cutoff
+  2. cutoff 贯穿到所有 5 个专家切片
+  3. prediction_cutoff_at 记录的是真正的 cutoff,而非 match_dt
+  4. backtest=True 时「赛后才 available 的 xG」不会出现在切片里
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from unittest.mock import MagicMock
+
+import pytest
+
+from src.llm.context_builder import MatchHeader
+
+
+def _make_header(match_dt=None) -> MatchHeader:
+    from datetime import datetime, timezone
+    if match_dt is None:
+        match_dt = datetime(2026, 1, 15, 20, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+    return MatchHeader(
+        match_id=999, home_name="利物浦", away_name="阿森纳",
+        league_name="英超", season="2025-2026",
+        match_date="2026-01-15 20:00 UTC",
+        match_dt=match_dt, stage=None,
+        home_team_id=1, away_team_id=2, league_id=1,
+    )
+
+
+class TestMultiAgentCutoffPropagation:
+    """验证 cutoff 在 multi-agent 路径中正确计算和传递。"""
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_backtest_computes_cutoff_from_match_dt_minus_1_day(self):
+        """backtest=True → cutoff = match_dt - 1 天,传给所有切片。"""
+        from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+        import src.llm.agents.orchestrator as orch
+
+        match_dt = datetime(2026, 1, 15, 20, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+        header = _make_header(match_dt)
+
+        captured_before = []
+        orig_run_specialists = orch.run_specialists
+
+        async def mock_run_specialists(header, *, version, before=None):
+            captured_before.append(before)
+            return []
+
+        orch.run_specialists = mock_run_specialists
+        orch.load_match_header = lambda mid, db=None: header
+        orch._agent_provider = lambda agent_id, **kw: MagicMock(model="test")
+
+        try:
+            try:
+                await orch.predict_match_multi(999, backtest=True)
+            except Exception:
+                pass  # 后续 aggregator 调用会因 mock 不全而失败,不影响 cutoff 测试
+
+            assert len(captured_before) == 1
+            expected_cutoff = match_dt - timedelta(days=1)
+            assert captured_before[0] == expected_cutoff, (
+                f"backtest cutoff 应为 {expected_cutoff},实际 {captured_before[0]}"
+            )
+        finally:
+            orch.run_specialists = orig_run_specialists
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_explicit_cutoff_at_overrides_backtest(self):
+        """显式 cutoff_at 优先于 backtest 自动计算。"""
+        from datetime import datetime, timezone
+        import src.llm.agents.orchestrator as orch
+
+        match_dt = datetime(2026, 1, 15, 20, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+        explicit_cutoff = datetime(2026, 1, 10, 12, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+        header = _make_header(match_dt)
+
+        captured_before = []
+        orig_run_specialists = orch.run_specialists
+
+        async def mock_run_specialists(header, *, version, before=None):
+            captured_before.append(before)
+            return []
+
+        orch.run_specialists = mock_run_specialists
+        orch.load_match_header = lambda mid, db=None: header
+        orch._agent_provider = lambda agent_id, **kw: MagicMock(model="test")
+
+        try:
+            try:
+                await orch.predict_match_multi(999, backtest=True, cutoff_at=explicit_cutoff)
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+
+            assert captured_before[0] == explicit_cutoff
+        finally:
+            orch.run_specialists = orig_run_specialists
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_normal_mode_cutoff_is_match_dt(self):
+        """非回测模式,无显式 cutoff → cutoff = match_dt。"""
+        from datetime import datetime, timezone
+        import src.llm.agents.orchestrator as orch
+
+        match_dt = datetime(2026, 1, 15, 20, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+        header = _make_header(match_dt)
+
+        captured_before = []
+        orig_run_specialists = orch.run_specialists
+
+        async def mock_run_specialists(header, *, version, before=None):
+            captured_before.append(before)
+            return []
+
+        orch.run_specialists = mock_run_specialists
+        orch.load_match_header = lambda mid, db=None: header
+        orch._agent_provider = lambda agent_id, **kw: MagicMock(model="test")
+
+        try:
+            try:
+                await orch.predict_match_multi(999, backtest=False)
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+
+            assert captured_before[0] == match_dt
+        finally:
+            orch.run_specialists = orig_run_specialists
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_prediction_cutoff_at_stored_not_match_dt(self):
+        """Prediction 写入时 prediction_cutoff_at = 真正 cutoff,非 match_dt。"""
+        from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+        from src.llm.predict import _predict_single, PredictResult
+
+        match_dt = datetime(2026, 1, 15, 20, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+        expected_cutoff = match_dt - timedelta(days=1)
+
+        # Mock build_context to return a context with cutoff
+        import src.llm.predict as pred
+        orig_build = pred.build_context
+
+        class FakeContext:
+            text = "fake"
+            match_dt = match_dt
+            cutoff = expected_cutoff
+
+        async def fake_build(match_id, **kw):
+            return FakeContext()
+
+        pred.build_context = fake_build
+        pred._upsert_prediction = lambda session, **kw: MagicMock(id=1, **kw.get("values", {}))
+
+        try:
+            # 此处只验证 cutoff 参数传递,实际 LLM 调用会被 mock 阻断
+            # 重点: build_context 被调用时传入 backtest=True 和正确的 cutoff
+            call_args = {}
+            async def tracking_build(match_id, **kw):
+                call_args.update(kw)
+                return FakeContext()
+            pred.build_context = tracking_build
+
+            try:
+                await _predict_single(999, backtest=True)
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+
+            assert call_args.get("backtest") is True, "backtest=True 应传递给 build_context"
+        finally:
+            pred.build_context = orig_build
+
+
+class TestBacktestXgNotVisible:
+    """P0-3 延伸:回测时赛后才 available 的统计数据不应出现在切片。"""
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_stats_slice_respects_cutoff_for_xg_availability(self):
+        """available_at > cutoff 的 xG 数据不应被切片使用。"""
+        from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+        from unittest.mock import MagicMock
+
+        cutoff = datetime(2026, 1, 13, 20, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)  # match_date - 2天
+        match_dt = datetime(2026, 1, 15, 20, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+
+        # 创建一场历史比赛,其 xG 在 match_date 之后才 available
+        hist_match = MagicMock()
+        hist_match.id = 500
+        hist_match.home_team_id = 1  # 利物浦主场
+        hist_match.away_team_id = 3
+        hist_match.home_goals = 2
+        hist_match.away_goals = 0
+        hist_match.home_team = MagicMock(id=1, name="利物浦", name_zh=None)
+        hist_match.away_team = MagicMock(id=3, name="诺维奇", name_zh=None)
+
+        # xG: available_at 在比赛日之后(1月16日),cutoff(1月13日)看不到
+        stats = MagicMock()
+        stats.home_xg = 2.5
+        stats.away_xg = 0.3
+        stats.home_shots = 15
+        stats.away_shots = 4
+        stats.home_shots_on_target = 6
+        stats.away_shots_on_target = 1
+        stats.home_possession = 65.0
+        stats.available_at = datetime(2026, 1, 16, 10, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)  # 赛后才有
+        hist_match.stats = stats
+
+        header = _make_header(match_dt)
+
+        import src.llm.context_builder as cb
+        orig_get_form = cb._get_form
+
+        async def mock_get_form(db, team_id, before, *, limit=10):
+            # before=cutoff(1月13日),比赛在1月15日,满足 before 条件
+            if before is not None and before < match_dt:
+                return [hist_match]
+            return []
+
+        cb._get_form = mock_get_form
+
+        try:
+            result = await cb.stats_slice(header, limit=10, before=cutoff)
+            text = str(result)
+            # xG 在 cutoff 之后才 available,不应出现在切片
+            assert "2.50" not in text, f"xG 2.50 不应在切片中(available_at > cutoff):\n{text}"
+            # 但无比分时仍应显示进球数据
+            assert "无比分数据" in text or "场均进球" in text, f"无比分时仍应显示基本数据:\n{text}"
+        finally:
+            cb._get_form = orig_get_form