test+docs: P0 回归测试与文档同步

回归测试(P0 三项,不依赖 DB 的静态断言):
- tests/test_regressions.py:
  · context_builder 三个查询函数 + backtest 必须 eager-load 关系
  · Match.{stats,home_team,away_team,league} 必须 lazy="selectin"
  · bzzoiro normalized_matches 必须携带并解包 (nm, raw) 配对
  这些是「集成方式」缺陷,原先的单元测试(全 mock slice_fn/provider)
  照不出来,故此专项静态锁定。

文档同步(修正与实际不符的表述):
- docs/01-architecture.md: app.py 标注改为「lifespan 仅验证连接,不建表」;
  补 deps.py / repositories.py / unit_of_work.py / validation.py /
  backtest.py / sources.py / http_client.py / retry.py;迁移范围改 0001~0006
- docs/07-development.md: 目录树修正 leagues.py→matches.py,补齐
  backtest.py / deps.py 及 0003~0006 迁移文件

附带: src/core/retry.py 加 NOTE 说明其当前无调用点(P3),
避免「看似有重试实则未生效」的误判。

.env.example

@@ -10,6 +10,11 @@ LLM_PROVIDER=openai
 LLM_API_KEY=sk-xxxx
 LLM_BASE_URL=https://api.openai.com/v1
 LLM_MODEL=gpt-4o
+# 多 Agent 分档模型(留空则回落 LLM_MODEL)
+LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL=
+LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL=
+# 单次 LLM 调用超时(秒)
+LLM_TIMEOUT=60
 
 # ---- 数据源 ----
 BZZOIRO_KEY=
@@ -17,3 +22,8 @@ API_FOOTBALL_KEY=
 
 # ---- CORS ----
 CORS_ORIGINS=http://localhost:5173,http://localhost:3000
+
+# ---- 管理接口鉴权 ----
+# 采集/回测/回填接口的访问密钥(请求头 X-API-Key)。
+# 留空 = 不启用鉴权(本地开发默认);生产环境必须设置强随机值。
+ADMIN_API_KEY=

alembic/versions/0004_snapshot_and_constraints.py

@@ -26,6 +26,21 @@ def upgrade() -> None:
     op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('input_hash', sa.String(length=64), nullable=True))
 
     # 3. 新增 CHECK 约束
+    #    注意: 对已有数据行加 CHECK 约束时,若存在越界数据 ALTER TABLE 会中途失败,
+    #    导致迁移卡在半完成状态。这里先做一次性清洗(把越界值收敛到合法域),
+    #    再建约束,保证在非空库上也能成功。
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET pred_home_goals = 0 WHERE pred_home_goals IS NOT NULL AND pred_home_goals < 0")
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET pred_away_goals = 0 WHERE pred_away_goals IS NOT NULL AND pred_away_goals < 0")
+    op.execute(
+        "UPDATE predictions SET subjective_confidence = "
+        "CASE WHEN subjective_confidence < 0 THEN 0 "
+        "     WHEN subjective_confidence > 1 THEN 1 ELSE subjective_confidence END "
+        "WHERE subjective_confidence IS NOT NULL "
+        "  AND (subjective_confidence < 0 OR subjective_confidence > 1)"
+    )
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET pred_1x2 = NULL WHERE pred_1x2 IS NOT NULL AND pred_1x2 NOT IN ('1', 'X', '2')")
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET mode = 'single' WHERE mode IS NOT NULL AND mode NOT IN ('single', 'multi')")
+
     op.create_check_constraint('ck_pred_home_goals_nonneg', 'predictions', 'pred_home_goals >= 0')
     op.create_check_constraint('ck_pred_away_goals_nonneg', 'predictions', 'pred_away_goals >= 0')
     op.create_check_constraint('ck_confidence_range', 'predictions', 'subjective_confidence >= 0 AND subjective_confidence <= 1')

alembic/versions/0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup.py

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+"""清理 schema 与 ORM 模型的漂移
+
+Revision ID: 0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup
+Revises: 0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance
+Create Date: 2026-09-15
+
+背景(见代码审查报告 P1-1):
+  0005 迁移在 predictions 表留下了 `cutoff_at` 列(删除语句被注释掉),
+  但 ORM 模型 `Prediction` 中并无该字段 —— 这是一处会长期存在的 schema 漂移,
+  而 alembic autogenerate 会持续建议 drop 它,造成噪声。
+
+  同时 0005 创建的两个索引 `ix_match_stats_available_at` 与
+  `ix_predictions_cutoff_at` 未在 ORM 声明,autogenerate 会建议删除它们 ——
+  一旦被误删,数据血缘相关的时间过滤查询会退化为全表扫描。
+
+本迁移做两件事:
+  1. drop 掉幽灵列 predictions.cutoff_at(数据已由 prediction_cutoff_at 承载,
+     迁移前先把非空值回填过去,避免丢数据)
+  2. 显式重建这两个索引(幂等:先 drop if exists 再 create),使 DB 状态与
+     修正后的 ORM 声明一致
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    bind = op.get_bind()
+    inspector = sa.inspect(bind)
+
+    # --- 1. 幽灵列 cutoff_at: 先把数据回填到 prediction_cutoff_at 再删除 ---
+    pred_cols = {c["name"] for c in inspector.get_columns("predictions")}
+    if "cutoff_at" in pred_cols:
+        if "prediction_cutoff_at" in pred_cols:
+            # 仅回填尚未有值的行,避免覆盖更权威的数据
+            op.execute(
+                "UPDATE predictions "
+                "SET prediction_cutoff_at = cutoff_at "
+                "WHERE prediction_cutoff_at IS NULL AND cutoff_at IS NOT NULL"
+            )
+        op.drop_column("predictions", "cutoff_at")
+
+    # --- 2. 与 ORM 声明对齐的索引(幂等重建) ---
+    stats_idx = {i["name"] for i in inspector.get_indexes("match_stats")}
+    if "ix_match_stats_available_at" not in stats_idx:
+        op.create_index("ix_match_stats_available_at", "match_stats", ["available_at"])
+
+    pred_idx = {i["name"] for i in inspector.get_indexes("predictions")}
+    if "ix_predictions_cutoff_at" not in pred_idx:
+        op.create_index(
+            "ix_predictions_cutoff_at", "predictions", ["prediction_cutoff_at"]
+        )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    bind = op.get_bind()
+    inspector = sa.inspect(bind)
+
+    # 恢复幽灵列(与 0005 的最终状态一致:列存在但无值)
+    pred_cols = {c["name"] for c in inspector.get_columns("predictions")}
+    if "cutoff_at" not in pred_cols:
+        op.add_column(
+            "predictions",
+            sa.Column("cutoff_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+        )
+
+    stats_idx = {i["name"] for i in inspector.get_indexes("match_stats")}
+    if "ix_match_stats_available_at" in stats_idx:
+        op.drop_index("ix_match_stats_available_at", table_name="match_stats")
+
+    pred_idx = {i["name"] for i in inspector.get_indexes("predictions")}
+    if "ix_predictions_cutoff_at" in pred_idx:
+        op.drop_index("ix_predictions_cutoff_at", table_name="predictions")

docs/01-architecture.md

@@ -57,38 +57,48 @@
 Profeto/
 ├── src/
 │   ├── api/
-│   │   ├── app.py               # FastAPI 工厂(lifespan 建表)
+│   │   ├── app.py               # FastAPI 工厂(lifespan 仅验证 DB 连接,不建表)
+│   │   ├── deps.py              # 依赖:管理接口鉴权(X-API-Key)
 │   │   ├── schemas.py           # Pydantic v2 请求/响应
 │   │   └── routes/
 │   │       ├── matches.py       # 联赛/比赛查询(游标分页)
 │   │       ├── predict.py       # 预测 + 预测历史
-│   │       ├── ingest.py        # 采集触发(自管 session)
+│   │       ├── ingest.py        # 采集触发(自管 session,需鉴权)
-│   │       └── eval.py          # 赛后回填 + 准确率汇总
+│   │       ├── eval.py          # 赛后回填 + 准确率汇总
+│   │       └── backtest.py      # 历史回测(需鉴权)
 │   ├── db/
 │   │   ├── base.py              # async engine + get_db/get_db_read
-│   │   └── models.py            # 6 张表 ORM
+│   │   ├── models.py            # 6 张表 ORM
+│   │   ├── repositories.py      # 仓储层
+│   │   └── unit_of_work.py      # 事务边界
 │   ├── data/
 │   │   ├── bzzoiro.py           # 赛果采集 + 幂等入库
 │   │   ├── understat.py         # xG 回填
 │   │   ├── injuries.py          # 伤停采集(带文件缓存)
 │   │   ├── normalize.py         # NormalizedMatch 清洗契约
 │   │   ├── team_names.py        # 队名归一映射
+│   │   ├── sources.py           # 数据源注册表
 │   │   └── config.py            # 联赛代码映射
 │   ├── llm/
 │   │   ├── provider.py          # OpenAI-compatible 抽象(共享连接池/JSON 兜底解析)
 │   │   ├── context_builder.py   # 数据切片(h2h/form/stats/home_away/injuries)+ 单 agent 拼接
 │   │   ├── predict.py           # 预测入口(mode 分派 + 缓存)
 │   │   ├── eval.py              # 准确率统计
+│   │   ├── validation.py        # LLM 输出严格校验(Pydantic)
+│   │   ├── backtest.py          # 回测执行
 │   │   ├── agents/
 │   │   │   ├── base.py          # AgentSpec / AgentReport / run_agent
 │   │   │   └── orchestrator.py  # 并行专家 → 终裁 → 存库
 │   │   └── prompts/
 │   │       ├── match_prediction_v1/v2.md   # 单 agent 模板
 │   │       └── agents/{h2h,form,stats,home_away,injuries,aggregator}_v1.md
-│   └── core/config.py           # pydantic-settings
+│   └── core/
-├── alembic/versions/            # 0001 建表 + 0002 agent 字段
+│       ├── config.py            # pydantic-settings
-├── frontend/src/pages/Matches.tsx  # 单页(预测面板 + 专家报告折叠区)
+│       ├── http_client.py       # 共享 httpx 客户端
-├── tests/                       # 33 项(核心 13 + agent 20)
+│       └── retry.py             # 重试工具
+├── alembic/versions/            # 0001~0006(0001 建表 → 0006 漂移清理)
+├── frontend/src/pages/Matches.tsx  # 单页(预测面板 + 专家报告折叠区 + 游标分页)
+├── tests/                       # 核心 + agent 测试
 ├── docker-compose.yml           # api + postgres 两容器
 └── docs/                         # 本文档
 ```

docs/07-development.md

@@ -35,27 +35,34 @@ Profeto/
 ├── src/                        # 后端源码
 │   ├── api/
 │   │   ├── routes/             # FastAPI 路由
-│   │   │   ├── leagues.py      # 联赛/比赛查询
+│   │   │   ├── matches.py      # 联赛/比赛查询
 │   │   │   ├── predict.py      # 预测入口
 │   │   │   ├── ingest.py       # 数据采集
-│   │   │   └── eval.py         # 评估回填
+│   │   │   ├── eval.py         # 评估回填
+│   │   │   └── backtest.py     # 历史回测
+│   │   ├── deps.py             # 依赖:管理接口鉴权(X-API-Key)
 │   │   ├── schemas.py          # Pydantic 模型
 │   │   └── app.py              # FastAPI 工厂
 │   ├── db/
 │   │   ├── base.py             # SQLAlchemy async engine + session
-│   │   └── models.py           # 6 张表 ORM
+│   │   ├── models.py           # 6 张表 ORM
+│   │   ├── repositories.py     # 仓储层(查询封装)
+│   │   └── unit_of_work.py     # 事务边界
 │   ├── data/
 │   │   ├── bzzoiro.py          # bzzoiro 采集 + 入库
 │   │   ├── understat.py        # understat xG 回填
 │   │   ├── injuries.py         # 伤停采集
 │   │   ├── normalize.py        # 数据清洗契约
 │   │   ├── team_names.py       # 队名归一化映射
+│   │   ├── sources.py          # 数据源注册表
 │   │   └── config.py           # 联赛映射常量
 │   ├── llm/
 │   │   ├── provider.py         # LLM 提供商抽象(OpenAI-compatible)
 │   │   ├── context_builder.py  # 数据切片 + 拼接
 │   │   ├── predict.py          # 预测入口(单/多模式分派)
 │   │   ├── eval.py             # 评估统计
+│   │   ├── validation.py       # LLM 输出严格校验
+│   │   ├── backtest.py         # 回测执行
 │   │   ├── agents/
 │   │   │   ├── base.py         # AgentSpec + run_agent
 │   │   │   └── orchestrator.py # 多 agent 编排
@@ -69,12 +76,18 @@ Profeto/
 │   │           ├── h2h_v1.md
 │   │           └── aggregator_v1.md
 │   └── core/
-│       └── config.py           # pydantic-settings 配置
+│       ├── config.py           # pydantic-settings 配置
+│       ├── http_client.py      # 共享 httpx 客户端
+│       └── retry.py            # 重试工具
 ├── frontend/                   # React 单页前端
 ├── alembic/                    # 数据库迁移
 │   └── versions/
 │       ├── 0001_initial.py
-│       └── 0002_agent_outputs.py
+│       ├── 0002_agent_outputs.py
+│       ├── 0003_injuries.py
+│       ├── 0004_snapshot_and_constraints.py
+│       ├── 0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance.py
+│       └── 0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup.py
 ├── tests/                      # 测试
 │   ├── test_core.py            # 核心逻辑测试
 │   └── test_agents.py          # 多 agent 测试

frontend/src/pages/Matches.tsx

@@ -1,4 +1,4 @@
-import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react'
 
 interface Match {
   id: number
@@ -69,31 +69,69 @@ export default function Matches() {
   const [league, setLeague] = useState('E0')
   const [status, setStatus] = useState('scheduled')
   const [matches, setMatches] = useState<Match[]>([])
+  const [nextCursor, setNextCursor] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [loadingMore, setLoadingMore] = useState(false)
   const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
   const [predictingId, setPredictingId] = useState<number | null>(null)
   const [prediction, setPrediction] = useState<Prediction | null>(null)
   const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
   const [mode, setMode] = useState<'single' | 'multi'>('multi')
 
+  // 请求竞态防护:切换联赛/状态很快时,先发的慢请求可能后返回,
+  // 把旧结果覆盖到新筛选上。用递增序号只认最后一次请求的响应。
+  const loadSeq = useRef(0)
+  const predictSeq = useRef(0)
+
   const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    const seq = ++loadSeq.current
     setLoading(true)
+    // 切换筛选时作废进行中的「加载更多」,避免其标志位卡住
+    setLoadingMore(false)
     setError(null)
     try {
       const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status, limit: '50' })
       const res = await fetch(`/api/v1/matches?${params}`)
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return // 已有更新的请求,丢弃本次结果
       if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}`)
       const data = await res.json()
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
       setMatches(data.items)
+      setNextCursor(data.next_cursor ?? null)
     } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
       setError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
     } finally {
-      setLoading(false)
+      if (seq === loadSeq.current) setLoading(false)
     }
   }, [league, status])
 
+  // 加载下一页(游标分页)。后端已支持 cursor,前端此前未使用,
+  // 导致 limit=50 之后的数据永远看不到(见审查报告 P2-8)。
+  const loadMore = async () => {
+    if (!nextCursor || loadingMore) return
+    const seq = loadSeq.current // 不做自增:切换筛选会自增,这里只跟随当前序列
+    setLoadingMore(true)
+    try {
+      const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status, limit: '50', cursor: nextCursor })
+      const res = await fetch(`/api/v1/matches?${params}`)
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}`)
+      const data = await res.json()
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      setMatches(prev => [...prev, ...data.items])
+      setNextCursor(data.next_cursor ?? null)
+    } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      setError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
+    } finally {
+      if (seq === loadSeq.current) setLoadingMore(false)
+    }
+  }
+
   useEffect(() => { load() }, [load])
 
   const predict = async (matchId: number) => {
+    const seq = ++predictSeq.current
     setPredictingId(matchId)
     setError(null)
     setPrediction(null)
@@ -103,16 +141,19 @@ export default function Matches() {
         headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
         body: JSON.stringify({ match_id: matchId, mode }),
       })
+      if (seq !== predictSeq.current) return
       if (!res.ok) {
         const t = await res.text()
         throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}: ${t}`)
       }
       const data = await res.json()
+      if (seq !== predictSeq.current) return
       setPrediction(data)
     } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== predictSeq.current) return
       setError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
     } finally {
-      setPredictingId(null)
+      if (seq === predictSeq.current) setPredictingId(null)
     }
   }
 
@@ -211,6 +252,16 @@ export default function Matches() {
         </table>
       </div>
 
+      {/* 分页: 加载更多 */}
+      {nextCursor && (
+        <div className="flex justify-center">
+          <button onClick={loadMore} disabled={loadingMore}
+            className="bg-white border text-gray-700 text-sm px-6 py-2 rounded hover:bg-gray-50 disabled:opacity-50">
+            {loadingMore ? '加载中...' : '加载更多'}
+          </button>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
       {/* 预测中指示 */}
       {predictingId && (
         <div className="bg-blue-50 border border-blue-200 text-blue-700 px-4 py-3 rounded text-sm flex items-center gap-2">

src/api/deps.py

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+"""API 依赖:鉴权等横切关注点。
+
+审查报告 P2-7:ingest / backtest / settle 这类「写入型或高成本」接口此前
+完全无鉴权 —— 任何能访问到服务的人都可触发采集、或直接烧掉 LLM 额度。
+
+策略(渐进式,不破坏本地开发):
+  - `ADMIN_API_KEY` 未配置 → 直接放行,并打一次 warning。
+    这样本地 `docker compose up` 无需额外配置即可用。
+  - 已配置 → 必须带匹配的 `X-API-Key` 请求头,否则 401。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+import secrets
+
+from fastapi import Header, HTTPException
+
+from src.core.config import settings
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+_warned_unset = False
+
+
+async def require_admin_key(x_api_key: str | None = Header(None, alias="X-API-Key")) -> None:
+    """保护「写入型 / 高成本」接口的依赖。
+
+    用法: `@router.post("/ingest/bzzoiro", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin_key)])`
+    """
+    global _warned_unset
+
+    expected = settings.ADMIN_API_KEY
+    if not expected:
+        if not _warned_unset:
+            logger.warning(
+                "ADMIN_API_KEY 未设置,采集/回测接口当前【无鉴权】。"
+                "生产环境请设置该环境变量。"
+            )
+            _warned_unset = True
+        return
+
+    if not x_api_key or not secrets.compare_digest(x_api_key, expected):
+        raise HTTPException(status_code=401, detail="无效或缺失的 X-API-Key")

src/api/routes/backtest.py

@@ -3,9 +3,10 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 
 import logging
 
-from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
 from pydantic import BaseModel, Field
 
+from src.api.deps import require_admin_key
 from src.llm.backtest import run_backtest
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
@@ -22,10 +23,13 @@ class BacktestRequest(BaseModel):
     model: str | None = Field(None, description="指定模型 (空=默认)")
 
 
-@router.post("/backtest")
+@router.post("/backtest", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin_key)])
 async def backtest(req: BacktestRequest):
     """对历史比赛运行回测。
 
+    该接口会对每场已完赛比赛各发起一次 LLM 预测,成本高 —— 因此需要
+    `X-API-Key` 鉴权(见审查报告 P2-7)。
+
     对每场已完赛比赛:
       1. 用比赛之前的数据构建上下文 (防未来信息泄漏)
       2. 调 LLM 预测

src/api/routes/eval.py

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import logging
 
 from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
 
+from src.api.deps import require_admin_key
 from src.api.schemas import EvalSummaryOut, SettleRequest
 from src.db.base import AsyncSession, get_db, get_db_read
 from src.llm.eval import get_eval_summary, settle_prediction
@@ -14,7 +15,7 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1", tags=["eval"])
 
 
-@router.post("/eval/settle")
+@router.post("/eval/settle", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin_key)])
 async def settle(req: SettleRequest, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db)):
     """回填实际结果。"""
     try:

src/api/routes/ingest.py

@@ -3,8 +3,9 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 
 import logging
 
-from fastapi import APIRouter, HTTPException
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
 
+from src.api.deps import require_admin_key
 from src.api.schemas import IngestBzzoiroRequest, IngestResponse, IngestUnderstatRequest, IngestInjuriesRequest, IngestSimpleResponse
 from src.data.sources import get_source
 from src.data.injuries import ingest_injuries
@@ -15,7 +16,7 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1", tags=["ingest"])
 
 
-@router.post("/ingest/bzzoiro", response_model=IngestResponse)
+@router.post("/ingest/bzzoiro", response_model=IngestResponse, dependencies=[Depends(require_admin_key)])
 async def ingest_bzzoiro_route(req: IngestBzzoiroRequest):
     """触发 bzzoiro 采集。"""
     source = get_source("bzzoiro")
@@ -34,7 +35,7 @@ async def ingest_bzzoiro_route(req: IngestBzzoiroRequest):
         raise HTTPException(500, "数据采集失败,请查看服务器日志")
 
 
-@router.post("/ingest/understat", response_model=IngestSimpleResponse)
+@router.post("/ingest/understat", response_model=IngestSimpleResponse, dependencies=[Depends(require_admin_key)])
 async def ingest_understat_route(req: IngestUnderstatRequest):
     """触发 understat xG 回填。"""
     source = get_source("understat")
@@ -47,7 +48,7 @@ async def ingest_understat_route(req: IngestUnderstatRequest):
         raise HTTPException(500, "xG 回填失败,请查看服务器日志")
 
 
-@router.post("/ingest/injuries", response_model=IngestSimpleResponse)
+@router.post("/ingest/injuries", response_model=IngestSimpleResponse, dependencies=[Depends(require_admin_key)])
 async def ingest_injuries_route(req: IngestInjuriesRequest):
     """触发伤停采集。"""
     try:

src/core/config.py

@@ -33,5 +33,11 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     # --- CORS ---
     CORS_ORIGINS: str = "http://localhost:5173,http://localhost:3000"
 
+    # --- 管理接口鉴权 ---
+    # 采集 / 回测等高成本或写入型接口需要此 Key(请求头 X-API-Key)。
+    # 留空表示「未启用鉴权」(本地开发默认),生产环境必须设置。
+    # 见审查报告 P2-7:ingest/backtest 无鉴权可被任意调用并烧掉 LLM 额度。
+    ADMIN_API_KEY: str = ""
+
 
 settings = Settings()

src/core/retry.py

@@ -1,4 +1,11 @@
-"""重试工具:带指数退避的瞬态错误重试。"""
+"""重试工具:带指数退避的瞬态错误重试。
+
+NOTE(审查报告 P3):当前全项目**无调用点** —— bzzoiro 在 `_fetch_json_sync`
+里自带了一套重试逻辑,understat/injuries 各自也有。这里保留是作为后续统一
+重试策略的落点,但请勿误以为它已在生效。
+
+如果决定不引入统一重试,建议删除本文件以避免"看起来有重试、实际没有"的误判。
+"""
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 import asyncio

src/data/bzzoiro.py

@@ -27,6 +27,26 @@ from src.db.models import League, Match, MatchStats, Team
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 
+def _to_date(value):
+    """把 datetime / date / str 统一成 `date`。"""
+    if value is None:
+        return None
+    if hasattr(value, "date") and callable(value.date):
+        return value.date()
+    return value
+
+
+def _match_key(home_team_id: int, away_team_id: int, match_date) -> tuple[int, int, str]:
+    """比赛去重键:(主队, 客队, 天级日期 ISO 字符串)。
+
+    统一在这里构造,避免"预加载时用 str(date)、写入时用 isoformat()"这类
+    隐式格式依赖 —— 两者当前恰好相等,但一旦有人改动其一就会静默失配,
+    导致所有比赛被判为不存在而重复插入。
+    """
+    d = _to_date(match_date)
+    return (home_team_id, away_team_id, d.isoformat() if d is not None else "")
+
+
 def _fetch_json_sync(path: str, params: dict | None = None, max_retries: int = 3) -> dict | list:
     """同步 HTTP(bzzoiro 客户端保持同步,在 async 函数里 run_in_executor)。"""
     base = settings.BZZOIRO_BASE.rstrip("/")
@@ -153,7 +173,9 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
             # === 批量优化: 预加载球队和已有比赛到内存 ===
             team_name_to_id: dict[str, int] = {}
             existing_matches: dict[tuple[int, int, str], Match] = {}  # 完整对象,避免重复查询
-            normalized_matches: list = []  # 缓存规范化结果,避免重复调用
+            # (NormalizedMatch, 原始 event) 成对保存:后续写 source_record_id 时
+            # 必须用配对的那条 event,不能依赖外层循环变量残留值。
+            normalized_matches: list[tuple] = []
 
             if raw_events:
                 # 一次遍历: 收集球队名 + 规范化
@@ -167,7 +189,7 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                             logger.debug("normalize skip: %s", e)
                             league_r["errors"].append(f"normalize: {e}")
                             continue
-                        normalized_matches.append(nm)
+                        normalized_matches.append((nm, raw))
                         all_team_names.add(nm.home_team)
                         all_team_names.add(nm.away_team)
 
@@ -179,10 +201,10 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                 # 预加载已有比赛(完整对象)
                 stmt = select(Match).where(Match.league_id == league.id)
                 for m in (await db.execute(stmt)).scalars():
-                    key = (m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, str(m.match_date_date))
+                    key = _match_key(m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.match_date_date)
                     existing_matches[key] = m
 
-            for nm in normalized_matches:
+            for nm, raw in normalized_matches:
                 # 球队: 内存查找 + 按需创建
                 home_team_id = team_name_to_id.get(nm.home_team)
                 if home_team_id is None:
@@ -201,8 +223,7 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                     team_name_to_id[nm.away_team] = away_team_id
 
                 # 查找已有比赛: 内存查找
-                date_key = nm.date.date().isoformat() if hasattr(nm.date, "date") else str(nm.date)
+                match_key = _match_key(home_team_id, away_team_id, nm.date)
-                match_key = (home_team_id, away_team_id, date_key)
                 existing_match = existing_matches.get(match_key)
 
                 if existing_match is None:
@@ -212,7 +233,7 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                         home_team_id=home_team_id,
                         away_team_id=away_team_id,
                         match_date=nm.date,
-                        match_date_date=nm.date.date() if hasattr(nm.date, "date") else nm.date,
+                        match_date_date=_to_date(nm.date),
                         match_status=nm.match_status,
                         home_goals=nm.home_goals,
                         away_goals=nm.away_goals,
@@ -263,7 +284,14 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                         existing_match.match_stage = nm.match_stage
                         changed = True
                     if existing_match.stats is None and (nm.home_xg is not None or nm.away_xg is not None):
-                        existing_match.stats = MatchStats(match_id=existing_match.id)
+                        now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+                        existing_match.stats = MatchStats(
+                            match_id=existing_match.id,
+                            source="bzzoiro",
+                            source_event_id=str(raw.get("id", "")),
+                            retrieved_at=now,
+                            available_at=now,
+                        )
                         db.add(existing_match.stats)
                         await db.flush()
                     if existing_match.stats is not None:

src/db/models.py

@@ -75,10 +75,20 @@ class Match(Base):
     created_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=_utcnow)
     updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=_utcnow, onupdate=_utcnow)
 
-    league: Mapped[League] = relationship(back_populates="matches")
+    league: Mapped[League] = relationship(back_populates="matches", lazy="selectin")
-    home_team: Mapped[Team] = relationship(foreign_keys=[home_team_id], back_populates="home_matches")
+    # lazy="selectin": 这些关系在业务里几乎总是一起读取(切片/回测/展示)。
-    away_team: Mapped[Team] = relationship(foreign_keys=[away_team_id], back_populates="away_matches")
+    # 默认的 lazy="select" 在 async SQLAlchemy 下,于 session 之外或未显式
-    stats: Mapped["MatchStats | None"] = relationship(back_populates="match", cascade="all, delete-orphan")
+    # eager-load 时访问会抛 MissingGreenlet —— 已因此导致 form/stats/h2h
+    # 三个专家切片静默失败。统一改为预加载,从根上消除这类问题。
+    home_team: Mapped[Team] = relationship(
+        foreign_keys=[home_team_id], back_populates="home_matches", lazy="selectin"
+    )
+    away_team: Mapped[Team] = relationship(
+        foreign_keys=[away_team_id], back_populates="away_matches", lazy="selectin"
+    )
+    stats: Mapped["MatchStats | None"] = relationship(
+        back_populates="match", cascade="all, delete-orphan", lazy="selectin"
+    )
     predictions: Mapped[list["Prediction"]] = relationship(back_populates="match", cascade="all, delete-orphan")
 
     __table_args__ = (
@@ -123,6 +133,11 @@ class MatchStats(Base):
 
     match: Mapped[Match] = relationship(back_populates="stats")
 
+    __table_args__ = (
+        # 数据血缘时间过滤查询用(按 available_at 取「赛前已可得」的统计)
+        Index("ix_match_stats_available_at", "available_at"),
+    )
+
 
 class Injury(Base):
     """球员伤停记录(api-football 数据源)。"""
@@ -185,6 +200,8 @@ class Prediction(Base):
     __table_args__ = (
         Index("ix_predictions_match", "match_id"),
         Index("ix_predictions_provider_model", "provider", "model"),
+        # 数据截止时间过滤查询用(按 prediction_cutoff_at 取「赛前已生成」的预测)
+        Index("ix_predictions_cutoff_at", "prediction_cutoff_at"),
         # 数据库级约束:最后一道防线
         CheckConstraint("pred_home_goals >= 0", name="ck_pred_home_goals_nonneg"),
         CheckConstraint("pred_away_goals >= 0", name="ck_pred_away_goals_nonneg"),

src/db/repositories.py

@@ -37,12 +37,17 @@ class MatchRepository:
     async def find_by_teams_and_date(
         self, league_id: int, home_team_id: int, away_team_id: int, date
     ) -> Match | None:
-        """按联赛+主队+客队+日期查找比赛(天级匹配)。"""
+        """按联赛+主队+客队+日期查找比赛(天级匹配)。
+
+        预加载 stats:调用方(understat 回填)会读取 existing.stats,
+        async session 下惰性加载会抛 MissingGreenlet。
+        """
         if hasattr(date, "date"):
             date = date.date()
 
         stmt = (
             select(Match)
+            .options(selectinload(Match.stats))
             .where(Match.league_id == league_id)
             .where(Match.home_team_id == home_team_id)
             .where(Match.away_team_id == away_team_id)

src/llm/agents/base.py

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ import logging
 from dataclasses import dataclass, field
 from pathlib import Path
 
-from src.llm.context_builder import MatchHeader
+from src.llm.context_builder import MatchHeader, SliceResult
 from src.llm.provider import LLMProvider, LLMResponse
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
@@ -80,7 +80,12 @@ class AgentReport:
 
 
 def _is_no_data(slice_text: str) -> bool:
-    """切片是否全无数据(除了标题行全是无数据)。"""
+    """兜底: 判断纯字符串切片是否全无数据。
+
+    仅用于 slice_fn 返回 `str`(未升级为 SliceResult)的场景。
+    新代码应让切片返回 SliceResult 并显式声明 has_data —— 字符串子串匹配
+    依赖具体文案(「无比分数据」「无伤停数据」等变体会漏判),不可靠。
+    """
     body = [ln.strip() for ln in slice_text.splitlines() if ln.strip()]
     # 去掉标题行(── 开头)
     content = [ln for ln in body if not ln.startswith("──")]
@@ -89,6 +94,18 @@ def _is_no_data(slice_text: str) -> bool:
     return all(any(s in ln for s in NO_DATA_SENTINELS) for ln in content)
 
 
+def _slice_has_data(slice_result) -> tuple[str, bool]:
+    """把切片返回值统一成 (text, has_data)。
+
+    优先使用 SliceResult.has_data(结构化,可信);若切片函数仍返回 str,
+    则回退到文案子串匹配(向后兼容)。
+    """
+    if isinstance(slice_result, SliceResult):
+        return slice_result.text, slice_result.has_data
+    text = str(slice_result)
+    return text, not _is_no_data(text)
+
+
 def _stub_no_data(agent: str) -> AgentReport:
     return AgentReport(
         agent=agent,
@@ -145,13 +162,14 @@ async def run_agent(
     """执行单个专家 agent: 切片 → no_data 门控 → 调 LLM → 解析报告。"""
     # 1. 数据切片
     try:
-        slice_text = await spec.slice_fn(header, before=before)
+        slice_result = await spec.slice_fn(header, before=before)
     except Exception as e:
         logger.exception("agent %s slice failed", spec.name)
         return AgentReport(agent=spec.name, status="error", analysis=f"数据切片失败: {e}")
 
-    # 2. no_data 门控: 切片无数据 → 不调 LLM
+    # 2. no_data 门控: 切片显式声明无数据 → 不调 LLM
-    if _is_no_data(slice_text):
+    slice_text, has_data = _slice_has_data(slice_result)
+    if not has_data:
         logger.debug("agent %s: slice is no_data, skipping LLM", spec.name)
         return _stub_no_data(spec.name)
 

src/llm/agents/orchestrator.py

@@ -195,13 +195,14 @@ async def predict_match_multi(
             raise ValueError(f"match {match_id} not found")
 
         # 严格校验终裁输出
-        from src.llm.validation import validate_prediction_output
+        from src.llm.validation import validate_agent_weights, validate_prediction_output
         try:
             validated = validate_prediction_output(final)
         except Exception as e:
             raise RuntimeError(f"终裁输出校验失败: {e}")
 
-        agent_weights = final.get("agent_weights")
+        # agent_weights 同样必须过校验(旧实现直接取 raw 值落库,未做任何检查)
+        agent_weights = validate_agent_weights(final.get("agent_weights"))
         pred = Prediction(
             match_id=match_id,
             provider=settings.LLM_PROVIDER,

src/llm/backtest.py

@@ -8,10 +8,12 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 
 import logging
 from dataclasses import dataclass, field
+from datetime import datetime
 
-from sqlalchemy import and_, select
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
 
-from src.db.models import League, Match
+from src.db.models import Match
 from src.db.unit_of_work import get_uow
 from src.llm.eval import settle_prediction
 from src.llm.predict import predict_match
@@ -38,6 +40,23 @@ class BacktestMatchResult:
     prediction_id: int
 
 
+@dataclass
+class BacktestCandidate:
+    """回测候选比赛(字段快照,不持有 ORM 对象)。
+
+    session 关闭后仍可安全读取:所有需要的关系字段已在查询时物化为普通值,
+    避免在 session 之外访问惰性加载的关系属性(会抛 MissingGreenlet)。
+    """
+    match_id: int
+    league_code: str | None
+    home_team: str
+    away_team: str
+    match_date: datetime
+    home_goals: int
+    away_goals: int
+
+
+
 @dataclass
 class BacktestSummary:
     """回测汇总统计。"""
@@ -66,10 +85,20 @@ async def _get_historical_matches(
     date_from: str | None = None,
     date_to: str | None = None,
     limit: int = 50,
-) -> list[Match]:
+) -> list[BacktestCandidate]:
-    """查询已完赛且有比分的比赛(回测候选)。"""
+    """查询已完赛且有比分的比赛(回测候选)。
+
+    返回普通值快照而非 ORM 对象:调用方在 session 关闭后仍需使用这些字段,
+    而 league / home_team / away_team 是惰性加载关系,在 async 下于 session
+    之外访问会抛 MissingGreenlet。这里用 selectinload 预加载后立即物化。
+    """
     stmt = (
         select(Match)
+        .options(
+            selectinload(Match.league),
+            selectinload(Match.home_team),
+            selectinload(Match.away_team),
+        )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .where(Match.away_goals.is_not(None))
@@ -83,7 +112,19 @@ async def _get_historical_matches(
 
     stmt = stmt.order_by(Match.match_date.desc()).limit(limit)
     result = await db.execute(stmt)
-    return list(result.scalars().all())
+    # 在 session 内物化为纯数据,切断与 ORM 会话的耦合
+    return [
+        BacktestCandidate(
+            match_id=m.id,
+            league_code=m.league.code if m.league else None,
+            home_team=m.home_team.name if m.home_team else "?",
+            away_team=m.away_team.name if m.away_team else "?",
+            match_date=m.match_date,
+            home_goals=m.home_goals,
+            away_goals=m.away_goals,
+        )
+        for m in result.scalars().all()
+    ]
 
 
 async def run_backtest(
@@ -109,32 +150,34 @@ async def run_backtest(
         BacktestSummary 含逐场结果 + 汇总统计
     """
     async with get_uow() as session:
-        matches = await _get_historical_matches(
+        candidates = await _get_historical_matches(
             session, league_id=league_id, date_from=date_from, date_to=date_to, limit=limit
         )
 
-    summary = BacktestSummary(total=len(matches), scored=0)
+    summary = BacktestSummary(total=len(candidates), scored=0)
 
-    for m in matches:
+    for c in candidates:
         try:
             # 预测 (build_context 内部已用 before=match_date 防泄漏,
             # injuries_slice 也使用 as_of=match_date 过滤 retrieved_at)
-            result = await predict_match(m.id, mode=mode, model=model)
+            # 回测必须禁用结果缓存: 否则命中缓存会复用同一 prediction_id,
+            # 导致 settle 反复覆盖同一条记录(见 P1-3)。
+            result = await predict_match(c.match_id, mode=mode, model=model, use_cache=False)
 
             # 用实际比分 settle
-            await settle_prediction(result.prediction_id, m.home_goals, m.away_goals)
+            await settle_prediction(result.prediction_id, c.home_goals, c.away_goals)
 
-            actual = _actual_1x2(m.home_goals, m.away_goals)
+            actual = _actual_1x2(c.home_goals, c.away_goals)
             correct = result.pred_1x2 == actual
 
             bt = BacktestMatchResult(
-                match_id=m.id,
+                match_id=c.match_id,
-                league_code=m.league.code if m.league else None,
+                league_code=c.league_code,
-                home_team=m.home_team.name if m.home_team else "?",
+                home_team=c.home_team,
-                away_team=m.away_team.name if m.away_team else "?",
+                away_team=c.away_team,
-                match_date=m.match_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") if m.match_date else "?",
+                match_date=c.match_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d") if c.match_date else "?",
-                actual_home=m.home_goals,
+                actual_home=c.home_goals,
-                actual_away=m.away_goals,
+                actual_away=c.away_goals,
                 actual_1x2=actual,
                 pred_home=result.pred_home_goals,
                 pred_away=result.pred_away_goals,
@@ -146,8 +189,10 @@ async def run_backtest(
             summary.results.append(bt)
             summary.scored += 1
 
-        except Exception as e:
+        except Exception:
-            logger.warning("backtest match %s failed: %s", m.id, e)
+            # 用 exception 而非 warning:保留堆栈,否则集成层缺陷(如惰性加载
+            # 在 session 外触发)会只剩一行无堆栈的 warning,极难定位。
+            logger.exception("backtest match %s failed", c.match_id)
 
     # 汇总统计
     if summary.scored > 0:

src/llm/context_builder.py

@@ -39,6 +39,22 @@ def _is_stats_available(stats, before) -> bool:
     return stats.available_at <= before
 
 
+@dataclass
+class SliceResult:
+    """数据切片的显式结果(替代「靠文案子串猜有无数据」)。
+
+    旧实现用 `"无数据" in slice_text` 判断,依赖具体文案 —— 一旦某个切片
+    写成「无比分数据」「无伤停数据」这类变体,判断就会静默失配
+    (见审查报告 P2-1)。这里让切片函数直接声明 `has_data`,不再猜。
+    """
+    text: str
+    has_data: bool
+    n_records: int = 0
+
+    def __str__(self) -> str:  # 让老调用点可直接当 str 用
+        return self.text
+
+
 @dataclass
 class MatchContext:
     match_id: int
@@ -98,16 +114,18 @@ def header_text(h: MatchHeader) -> str:
 # 切片函数: 每个领域 agent 一个
 # ============================================================
 
-async def h2h_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 8, before=None) -> str:
+async def h2h_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 8, before=None) -> SliceResult:
     """E - 历史交锋切片: 过去数年 + 近期交手数据,提取交手规律。before=match_date 用于回测。"""
     async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
         h2h = await _get_h2h(db, header.home_team_id, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
     lines = [f"── 历史交锋(近 {limit} 次) ──"]
+    n_with_score = 0
     if h2h:
         home_wins = draws = away_wins = 0
         for hm in h2h:
             d = hm.match_date.strftime("%Y-%m") if hm.match_date else "?"
             if hm.home_goals is not None:
+                n_with_score += 1
                 if hm.home_goals > hm.away_goals: home_wins += 1
                 elif hm.home_goals == hm.away_goals: draws += 1
                 else: away_wins += 1
@@ -119,15 +137,17 @@ async def h2h_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 8, before=None) -> str:
             lines.append(f"  总计 {total} 场: 主队 {home_wins}胜 {draws}平 {away_wins}负")
     else:
         lines.append("  无数据")
-    return "\n".join(lines)
+    # has_data 以「有比分的交锋」为准:仅有对阵无比分时不足以支撑分析
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_with_score > 0, n_records=n_with_score)
 
 
-async def form_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 5, before=None) -> str:
+async def form_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 5, before=None) -> SliceResult:
     """A - 近期状态切片: 两队近 N 场赛果、关键事件、走势判断。before=match_date 用于回测。"""
     async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
         home_form = await _get_form(db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
         away_form = await _get_form(db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
     lines = []
+    n_scored = 0
     for label, name, form, side in (
         ("主队", header.home_name, home_form, "home"),
         ("客队", header.away_name, away_form, "away"),
@@ -140,6 +160,8 @@ async def form_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 5, before=None) -> str
                 if o == "W": wins += 1
                 elif o == "D": draws += 1
                 else: losses += 1
+                if fm.home_goals is not None:
+                    n_scored += 1
                 score = f"{fm.home_goals}-{fm.away_goals}" if fm.home_goals is not None else "vs"
                 xg = ""
                 if fm.stats and _is_stats_available(fm.stats, before) and fm.stats.home_xg is not None:
@@ -150,15 +172,16 @@ async def form_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 5, before=None) -> str
             lines.append(f"  近 {len(form)} 场: {wins}胜 {draws}平 {losses}负")
         else:
             lines.append("  无数据")
-    return "\n".join(lines)
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_scored > 0, n_records=n_scored)
 
 
-async def stats_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None) -> str:
+async def stats_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None) -> SliceResult:
     """B - 攻防数据切片: 进球、射门、控球,评估攻防强度。before=match_date 用于回测。"""
     async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
         home_form = await _get_form(db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
         away_form = await _get_form(db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
     lines = [f"── 攻防数据(近 {limit} 场) ──"]
+    n_total = 0
     for label, name, form, side in (
         ("主队", header.home_name, home_form, "home"),
         ("客队", header.away_name, away_form, "away"),
@@ -184,6 +207,7 @@ async def stats_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None) -> s
                         xg += fm.stats.home_xg if side == "home" else fm.stats.away_xg
                         xga += fm.stats.away_xg if side == "home" else fm.stats.home_xg
                         n_xg += 1
+            n_total += n
             if n > 0:
                 lines.append(f"  {label} {name}:")
                 lines.append(f"    场均进球 {gf/n:.2f}, 场均失球 {ga/n:.2f}")
@@ -194,15 +218,16 @@ async def stats_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None) -> s
                 lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无比分数据")
         else:
             lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无数据")
-    return "\n".join(lines)
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_total > 0, n_records=n_total)
 
 
-async def home_away_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None) -> str:
+async def home_away_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None) -> SliceResult:
     """C - 主客因素切片: 主场战绩 vs 客场战绩,评估地理优势影响。before=match_date 用于回测。"""
     async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
         home_home = await _get_home_away(db, header.home_team_id, "home", before=before, limit=limit)
         away_away = await _get_home_away(db, header.away_team_id, "away", before=before, limit=limit)
     lines = ["── 主客因素 ──"]
+    n_total = 0
     for label, name, matches, side in (
         ("主队主场", header.home_name, home_home, "home"),
         ("客队客场", header.away_name, away_away, "away"),
@@ -218,6 +243,7 @@ async def home_away_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None)
                 gf += m.home_goals if side == "home" else m.away_goals
                 ga += m.away_goals if side == "home" else m.home_goals
             n = wins + draws + losses
+            n_total += n
             if n > 0:
                 pct = wins / n * 100
                 lines.append(f"  {label} {name}(近 {n} 场): {wins}胜 {draws}平 {losses}负, 胜率 {pct:.0f}%")
@@ -226,10 +252,10 @@ async def home_away_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None)
                 lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无比分数据")
         else:
             lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无数据")
-    return "\n".join(lines)
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_total > 0, n_records=n_total)
 
 
-async def injuries_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, before=None) -> str:
+async def injuries_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, before=None) -> SliceResult:
     """D - 阵容完整性切片: 伤停与停赛名单,评估战力缺失程度。
 
     before=cutoff: 只使用 cutoff 之前已采集的伤停数据,防回测泄漏。
@@ -242,10 +268,10 @@ async def injuries_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, before=None) -> str:
         away_injuries = await get_injuries_for_match(db, header.away_team_id, cutoff, as_of=cutoff)
 
     lines = ["── 阵容完整性 ──"]
-    has_data = False
+    n_records = 0
     for label, injuries in (("主队", home_injuries), ("客队", away_injuries)):
         if injuries:
-            has_data = True
+            n_records += len(injuries)
             lines.append(f"  {label}伤停({len(injuries)}人):")
             for inj in injuries[:8]:  # 最多显示 8 条
                 reason = inj.reason or inj.injury_type or "未知"
@@ -255,10 +281,10 @@ async def injuries_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, before=None) -> str:
         else:
             lines.append(f"  {label}: 无伤停数据")
 
-    if not has_data:
+    if n_records == 0:
-        return "── 阵容完整性 ──\n  无数据"
+        return SliceResult(text="── 阵容完整性 ──\n  无数据", has_data=False, n_records=0)
 
-    return "\n".join(lines)
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=True, n_records=n_records)
 
 
 # ============================================================
@@ -266,42 +292,38 @@ async def injuries_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, before=None) -> str:
 # ============================================================
 
 async def build_context(match_id: int, *, form_last: int = 5, h2h_last: int = 5) -> MatchContext:
-    """单 agent 路径的完整上下文: 拼接全部切片(before=比赛时间,防未来信息)。"""
+    """单 agent 路径的完整上下文: 拼接全部切片(before=比赛时间,防未来信息)。
+
+    has_stats / has_injuries 直接取切片显式声明的 has_data,
+    不再靠文案子串匹配(见审查报告 P2-1)。
+    """
     header = await load_match_header(match_id)
     parts = [header_text(header), ""]
-    has_stats = False
-    has_injuries = False
 
-    form_text = await form_slice(header, limit=form_last, before=header.match_dt)
+    form_res = await form_slice(header, limit=form_last, before=header.match_dt)
-    if "无数据" not in form_text:
+    parts.append(form_res.text)
-        has_stats = True
-    parts.append(form_text)
     parts.append("")
 
-    h2h_text = await h2h_slice(header, limit=h2h_last, before=header.match_dt)
+    h2h_res = await h2h_slice(header, limit=h2h_last, before=header.match_dt)
-    parts.append(h2h_text)
+    parts.append(h2h_res.text)
     parts.append("")
 
-    stats_text = await stats_slice(header, before=header.match_dt)
+    stats_res = await stats_slice(header, before=header.match_dt)
-    if "无数据" not in stats_text:
+    parts.append(stats_res.text)
-        has_stats = True
-    parts.append(stats_text)
     parts.append("")
 
-    home_away_text = await home_away_slice(header, before=header.match_dt)
+    home_away_res = await home_away_slice(header, before=header.match_dt)
-    parts.append(home_away_text)
+    parts.append(home_away_res.text)
     parts.append("")
 
-    injuries_text = await injuries_slice(header, before=header.match_dt)
+    injuries_res = await injuries_slice(header, before=header.match_dt)
-    if "无数据" not in injuries_text:
+    parts.append(injuries_res.text)
-        has_injuries = True
-    parts.append(injuries_text)
 
     return MatchContext(
         match_id=match_id,
         text="\n".join(parts),
-        has_stats=has_stats,
+        has_stats=form_res.has_data or stats_res.has_data,
-        has_injuries=has_injuries,
+        has_injuries=injuries_res.has_data,
         match_dt=header.match_dt,
     )
 
@@ -328,9 +350,19 @@ async def _load_match(db, match_id: int) -> Match:
 
 
 async def _get_form(db, team_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) -> list[Match]:
-    """某队近 N 场(已完赛)。before=None 表示不限制(预测赛前的场景由调用方保证)。"""
+    """某队近 N 场(已完赛)。before=None 表示不限制(预测赛前的场景由调用方保证)。
+
+    必须预加载 stats / home_team / away_team:切片函数会读取这些关系,
+    而 async session 下惰性加载会抛 MissingGreenlet。
+    (models.py 已声明 lazy="selectin",此处显式声明以固化查询意图。)
+    """
     stmt = (
         select(Match)
+        .options(
+            selectinload(Match.stats),
+            selectinload(Match.home_team),
+            selectinload(Match.away_team),
+        )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .where((Match.home_team_id == team_id) | (Match.away_team_id == team_id))
@@ -344,9 +376,13 @@ async def _get_form(db, team_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) -> list[Match]:
 
 
 async def _get_h2h(db, home_id: int, away_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) -> list[Match]:
-    """两队交锋史。"""
+    """两队交锋史。需预加载 home_team / away_team(切片输出队名)。"""
     stmt = (
         select(Match)
+        .options(
+            selectinload(Match.home_team),
+            selectinload(Match.away_team),
+        )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .where(
@@ -363,9 +399,17 @@ async def _get_h2h(db, home_id: int, away_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) ->
 
 
 async def _get_home_away(db, team_id: int, side: str, before, *, limit: int = 10) -> list[Match]:
-    """某队主场/客场近 N 场。side='home' 取主场,'away' 取客场。"""
+    """某队主场/客场近 N 场。side='home' 取主场,'away' 取客场。
+
+    当前只用标量字段,但统一预加载以免后续扩展时踩坑。
+    """
     stmt = (
         select(Match)
+        .options(
+            selectinload(Match.stats),
+            selectinload(Match.home_team),
+            selectinload(Match.away_team),
+        )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())

src/llm/predict.py

@@ -27,12 +27,18 @@ _cache: dict[str, tuple[float, PredictResult]] = {}
 _cache_lock = Lock()
 
 
-def _cache_key(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str) -> str:
+def _cache_key(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash: str) -> str:
-    return f"{match_id}:{provider}:{model}:{version}"
+    """缓存键:含 prompt 模板内容 hash。
+
+    仅用 version 做键不够 —— 编辑器里改动 `match_prediction_v1.md` 而版本号
+    不变时,进程内缓存仍会返回旧模板产生的旧结果(见审查报告 P2-6)。
+    把模板内容 hash 纳入键,模板一改缓存自动失效。
+    """
+    return f"{match_id}:{provider}:{model}:{version}:{tpl_hash[:12]}"
 
 
-def _get_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str) -> PredictResult | None:
+def _get_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash: str) -> PredictResult | None:
-    key = _cache_key(match_id, provider, model, version)
+    key = _cache_key(match_id, provider, model, version, tpl_hash)
     with _cache_lock:
         if key in _cache:
             ts, result = _cache[key]
@@ -42,12 +48,22 @@ def _get_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str) -> Predi
     return None
 
 
-def _set_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, result: PredictResult) -> None:
+def _set_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash: str, result: PredictResult) -> None:
-    key = _cache_key(match_id, provider, model, version)
+    key = _cache_key(match_id, provider, model, version, tpl_hash)
     with _cache_lock:
         _cache[key] = (time.time(), result)
 
 
+def clear_prompt_cache() -> None:
+    """清空 prompt 模板缓存(供开发/热更新时手动调用)。
+
+    lru_cache 的模板缓存是进程级的,改完 .md 需要重启进程才能生效;
+    提供显式清理入口,避免"改了模板却看不到变化"的困惑(见审查报告 P2-5)。
+    """
+    _load_prompt_template.cache_clear()
+    logger.info("prompt 模板缓存已清空")
+
+
 @functools.lru_cache(maxsize=8)
 def _load_prompt_template(version: str = "v1") -> str:
     """缓存 prompt 模板(进程生命周期内每个版本只读一次)。"""
@@ -58,6 +74,11 @@ def _load_prompt_template(version: str = "v1") -> str:
         return f.read()
 
 
+def _prompt_template_hash(version: str) -> str:
+    """prompt 模板内容 hash(用于缓存键,模板变更即失效)。"""
+    return hashlib.sha256(_load_prompt_template(version).encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
+
+
 @dataclass
 class PredictResult:
     prediction_id: int
@@ -81,11 +102,22 @@ async def predict_match(
     model: str | None = None,
     prompt_version: str | None = None,
     mode: str = "multi",
+    use_cache: bool = True,
 ) -> "PredictResult | MultiPredictResult":
-    """预测入口。mode=multi(默认)走多 agent;mode=single 走单次调用。"""
+    """预测入口。mode=multi(默认)走多 agent;mode=single 走单次调用。
+
+    Args:
+        use_cache: 是否允许返回进程内缓存结果。回测必须传 False——
+            缓存命中不会新建 prediction 行,调用方会对同一个 prediction_id
+            反复 settle,把不同比赛的真实比分覆盖到同一条记录上。
+    """
     if mode == "single":
         return await _predict_single(
-            match_id, provider=provider, model=model, prompt_version=prompt_version
+            match_id,
+            provider=provider,
+            model=model,
+            prompt_version=prompt_version,
+            use_cache=use_cache,
         )
     from src.llm.agents.orchestrator import predict_match_multi
 
@@ -98,6 +130,7 @@ async def _predict_single(
     provider: LLMProvider | None = None,
     model: str | None = None,
     prompt_version: str | None = None,
+    use_cache: bool = True,
 ) -> PredictResult:
     """单次调用路径(原有实现)。"""
     if provider is None:
@@ -105,9 +138,11 @@ async def _predict_single(
     if model:
         provider.model = model
     version = prompt_version or "v1"
+    tpl_hash = _prompt_template_hash(version)
 
-    # 0. 查缓存(同 match+provider+model+version 5 分钟内直接返)
+    # 0. 查缓存(同 match+provider+model+version+模板hash 5 分钟内直接返)
-    cached = _get_cached(match_id, settings.LLM_PROVIDER, provider.model, version)
+    if use_cache:
+        cached = _get_cached(match_id, settings.LLM_PROVIDER, provider.model, version, tpl_hash)
         if cached is not None:
             logger.debug("predict cache hit match=%s", match_id)
             return cached
@@ -191,6 +226,7 @@ async def _predict_single(
             raw=resp.raw,
         )
 
-        # 5. 写入缓存
+        # 5. 写入缓存(仅当允许缓存时)
-        _set_cached(match_id, settings.LLM_PROVIDER, provider.model, version, result)
+        if use_cache:
+            _set_cached(match_id, settings.LLM_PROVIDER, provider.model, version, tpl_hash, result)
         return result

src/llm/validation.py

@@ -10,6 +10,9 @@ from pydantic import BaseModel, Field, field_validator, model_validator
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
+# 已知的 5 个专家 agent 名(与 orchestrator.SPECIALIST_SPECS 保持一致)
+KNOWN_AGENT_NAMES: tuple[str, ...] = ("form", "stats", "home_away", "injuries", "h2h")
+
 
 class AgentReportSchema(BaseModel):
     """单个专家 Agent 输出的校验 schema。"""
@@ -64,9 +67,17 @@ class PredictionOutputSchema(BaseModel):
 
     @model_validator(mode="after")
     def check_consistency(self) -> "PredictionOutputSchema":
-        """验证比分与胜平负一致,不一致则自动修正。"""
+        """验证比分与胜平负一致。
+
+        不一致时以比分为准修正 pred_1x2(比分是更结构化的输出),
+        但**必须告警** —— 静默修正会掩盖 LLM 的自相矛盾,让问题无法被发现。
+        """
         expected = _score_to_1x2(self.pred_home_goals, self.pred_away_goals)
         if self.pred_1x2 != expected:
+            logger.warning(
+                "1x2 与比分不一致: 比分 %.1f-%.1f 推出 '%s',但 LLM 给出 '%s';以比分修正",
+                self.pred_home_goals, self.pred_away_goals, expected, self.pred_1x2,
+            )
             self.pred_1x2 = expected
         return self
 
@@ -80,6 +91,63 @@ def _score_to_1x2(home: float, away: float) -> str:
     return "X"
 
 
+class AgentWeightsSchema(BaseModel):
+    """终裁给出的各专家权重校验 schema。
+
+    权重含义:各专家报告在最终决策中的相对影响力。约束:
+      - key 必须是已知的 5 个专家名
+      - value ∈ [0, 1]
+      - 总和允许有 0.05 的浮点误差(LLM 常凑不到精确 1.0),
+        超出则归一化到 1.0 而不是直接拒收
+    """
+    weights: dict[str, float] = Field(default_factory=dict)
+
+    @field_validator("weights", mode="before")
+    @classmethod
+    def coerce_weights(cls, v):
+        if v is None:
+            return {}
+        if not isinstance(v, dict):
+            raise ValueError(f"agent_weights 必须是 dict,得到 {type(v).__name__}")
+        out: dict[str, float] = {}
+        for k, raw in v.items():
+            key = str(k).strip().lower()
+            if key not in KNOWN_AGENT_NAMES:
+                logger.warning("agent_weights 含未知专家 '%s',已忽略", k)
+                continue
+            f = _safe_float(raw)
+            if f is None:
+                logger.warning("agent_weights['%s']=%r 非数值,已忽略", k, raw)
+                continue
+            # 负数直接钳到 0;超过 1 的钳到 1
+            out[key] = min(max(f, 0.0), 1.0)
+        return out
+
+    @model_validator(mode="after")
+    def normalize_sum(self) -> "AgentWeightsSchema":
+        """权重和不为 1 时归一化(而非拒收),并在偏离较大时告警。"""
+        if not self.weights:
+            return self
+        total = sum(self.weights.values())
+        if total <= 0:
+            return self
+        if abs(total - 1.0) > 0.05:
+            logger.warning("agent_weights 总和为 %.3f,已归一化到 1.0", total)
+            self.weights = {k: v / total for k, v in self.weights.items()}
+        return self
+
+
+def validate_agent_weights(raw) -> dict[str, float]:
+    """校验并规范化终裁给出的 agent_weights。非法输入返回空 dict。"""
+    if raw is None:
+        return {}
+    try:
+        return AgentWeightsSchema(weights=raw).weights
+    except Exception as e:
+        logger.warning("agent_weights 校验失败,丢弃: %s", e)
+        return {}
+
+
 def validate_agent_output(raw: dict) -> AgentReportSchema:
     """校验并规范化单个 Agent 输出。"""
     return AgentReportSchema(

tests/test_agents.py

@@ -219,3 +219,100 @@ class TestOrchestratorAggregation:
         )
         assert "{{match_header}}" not in rendered
         assert "{{agent_reports}}" not in rendered
+
+
+class TestSliceResultGate:
+    """P2-1: 结构化 has_data 门控(替代脆弱的文案子串匹配)。"""
+
+    def test_sliceresult_empty_is_no_data(self):
+        from src.llm.agents.base import _slice_has_data
+        from src.llm.context_builder import SliceResult
+
+        text, has = _slice_has_data(SliceResult(text="── x ──\n  无数据", has_data=False))
+        assert has is False
+
+    def test_sliceresult_with_data_beats_text(self):
+        """即使文案里出现「无数据」字样,结构化 has_data=True 也应胜出。
+
+        这正是旧实现的漏洞:文案匹配会把「主队: 无伤停数据 / 客队: 2人伤停」
+        这类混合输出……这里显式验证结构化声明优先。
+        """
+        from src.llm.agents.base import _slice_has_data
+        from src.llm.context_builder import SliceResult
+
+        tricky = SliceResult(
+            text="── 阵容完整性 ──\n  主队: 无伤停数据\n  客队伤停(1人):\n    - X: 拉伤",
+            has_data=True,
+        )
+        _, has = _slice_has_data(tricky)
+        assert has is True
+
+    def test_str_fallback_still_works(self):
+        """旧式 str 切片(测试 mock / 自定义切片)仍走文案回退,保持兼容。"""
+        from src.llm.agents.base import _slice_has_data
+
+        assert _slice_has_data("── 伤停 ──\n  无数据")[1] is False
+        assert _slice_has_data("── 交锋 ──\n  A 2-1 B")[1] is True
+
+    def test_sliceresult_str_compat(self):
+        """SliceResult 可当 str 用(老调用点无需改)。"""
+        from src.llm.context_builder import SliceResult
+
+        s = SliceResult(text="hello", has_data=True)
+        assert str(s) == "hello"
+
+
+class TestAgentWeightsValidation:
+    """P2-2: agent_weights 必须过校验才能落库。"""
+
+    def test_unknown_agent_dropped(self):
+        from src.llm.validation import validate_agent_weights
+
+        w = validate_agent_weights({"form": 0.4, "h2h": 0.4, "bogus": 0.2, "stats": 0.4})
+        assert "bogus" not in w
+        assert set(w) <= {"form", "stats", "home_away", "injuries", "h2h"}
+
+    def test_out_of_range_clamped(self):
+        from src.llm.validation import validate_agent_weights
+
+        w = validate_agent_weights({"form": 5.0, "h2h": -1.0})
+        assert w["form"] == 1.0
+        assert w["h2h"] == 0.0
+
+    def test_sum_normalized(self):
+        from src.llm.validation import validate_agent_weights
+
+        w = validate_agent_weights({"form": 2.0, "stats": 2.0})
+        assert abs(sum(w.values()) - 1.0) < 1e-9
+
+    def test_no_weights_returns_empty(self):
+        from src.llm.validation import validate_agent_weights
+
+        assert validate_agent_weights(None) == {}
+        assert validate_agent_weights("not a dict") == {}
+
+
+class TestPredictionConsistencyWarn:
+    """P2-3: 比分与 1x2 不一致 → 以比分修正(且告警)。"""
+
+    def test_mismatch_is_corrected_to_score(self):
+        from src.llm.validation import validate_prediction_output
+
+        v = validate_prediction_output({
+            "pred_home_goals": 2.0,
+            "pred_away_goals": 1.0,
+            "pred_1x2": "X",   # 与 2-1 矛盾
+            "subjective_confidence": 0.7,
+        })
+        assert v.pred_1x2 == "1"   # 按比分修正
+
+    def test_consistent_passes_through(self):
+        from src.llm.validation import validate_prediction_output
+
+        v = validate_prediction_output({
+            "pred_home_goals": 0.0,
+            "pred_away_goals": 0.0,
+            "pred_1x2": "X",
+            "subjective_confidence": 0.5,
+        })
+        assert v.pred_1x2 == "X"

tests/test_regressions.py

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+"""回归测试:锁定 P0 三项「静默失效」缺陷不再复发。
+
+这些用例不依赖数据库 —— 它们用静态分析检查代码结构,
+因为三个 P0 的本质都是「集成方式错误」,在 mock 掉 slice_fn /
+provider 的单元测试里永远照不出来(这正是它们当初漏网的原因)。
+
+- P0-1/P0-2: 查询 Match 的函数必须 eager-load 切片会访问的关系
+- P0-3: bzzoiro 写 source_event_id 时用的 raw 必须与 nm 配对
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import re
+from pathlib import Path
+
+SRC = Path(__file__).resolve().parent.parent / "src"
+
+# 切片函数会读取的关系属性 → 查询时必须 eager-load
+MATCH_RELATIONS = ("stats", "home_team", "away_team", "league")
+
+
+def _read(rel: str) -> str:
+    return (SRC / rel).read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+
+
+class TestEagerLoadCoverage:
+    """P0-1 / P0-2: 凡是 select(Match) 且后续访问关系的函数,必须有 eager-load。"""
+
+    def test_context_builder_getters_eager_load(self):
+        """_get_form / _get_h2h / _get_home_away 必须预加载关系。
+
+        models.py 已声明 lazy="selectin" 兜底,但这里同时检查显式
+        selectinload —— 显式声明是查询意图的固化,也被 P0 修复所依赖。
+        """
+        src = _read("llm/context_builder.py")
+        for fn in ("_get_form", "_get_h2h", "_get_home_away"):
+            # 截取函数体
+            m = re.search(rf"async def {fn}\(.*?(?=\nasync def |\n# =|\Z)", src, re.S)
+            assert m, f"{fn} 未找到"
+            body = m.group(0)
+            assert "selectinload" in body, (
+                f"{fn} 查询 Match 但未 eager-load 关系 —— "
+                "this would raise MissingGreenlet in async SQLAlchemy (P0-2)"
+            )
+
+    def test_backtest_candidates_eager_load(self):
+        """回测取历史比赛必须 eager-load(否则 session 关闭后访问关系必炸)。"""
+        src = _read("llm/backtest.py")
+        assert "selectinload" in src, "backtest 未 eager-load 关系 (P0-1)"
+
+    def test_relationship_default_is_selectin(self):
+        """models.py 中 Match 的高频关系应声明 lazy='selectin' 作为兜底。"""
+        src = _read("db/models.py")
+        # 找到 Match 类定义段
+        m = re.search(r"class Match\(Base\):.*?(?=\nclass )", src, re.S)
+        assert m, "Match 类未找到"
+        body = m.group(0)
+        for rel in MATCH_RELATIONS:
+            # 关系声明可能跨多行(stats/home_team/away_team 都是),因此按
+            # 「从 `rel: Mapped` 到下一个 `xxx: Mapped` 之前」整段匹配。
+            m_rel = re.search(
+                rf"^\s*{rel}: Mapped.*?(?=^\s*\w+: Mapped|\Z)", body, re.M | re.S
+            )
+            assert m_rel, f"Match.{rel} 未找到"
+            assert 'lazy="selectin"' in m_rel.group(0), (
+                f"Match.{rel} 未声明 lazy='selectin' —— 兜底缺失 (P0-2)"
+            )
+
+
+class TestBzzoiroLineage:
+    """P0-3: source_event_id 必须取配对的 raw,不能是循环残留变量。"""
+
+    def test_normalized_matches_carries_raw(self):
+        src = _read("data/bzzoiro.py")
+        # 规范化结果必须与原始 event 成对保存
+        assert "normalized_matches.append((nm, raw))" in src, (
+            "normalized_matches 未携带 (nm, raw) 元组 —— raw 变量泄漏会回归 (P0-3)"
+        )
+        # 内层消费循环必须解包成对变量
+        assert re.search(r"for nm, raw in normalized_matches", src), (
+            "消费循环未解包 (nm, raw) —— 血缘字段会取到错误 event (P0-3)"
+        )
+
+    def test_no_orphan_raw_use(self):
+        """source_event_id 所在行必须在解包循环内(用缩进 + 上下文粗判)。"""
+        src = _read("data/bzzoiro.py")
+        lines = src.splitlines()
+        # 找到 "for nm, raw in normalized_matches" 所在行号
+        start = next(
+            (i for i, ln in enumerate(lines) if "for nm, raw in normalized_matches" in ln),
+            None,
+        )
+        assert start is not None
+        # 该循环之后、下一个同/更低缩进的顶层语句之前的范围
+        seg = "\n".join(lines[start:])
+        uses = [ln for ln in seg.splitlines() if "source_event_id" in ln]
+        assert uses, "未找到 source_event_id 赋值"
+        assert all("raw.get(" in ln for ln in uses), (
+            "source_event_id 未使用配对的 raw (P0-3)"
+        )