fix(P1-D): 全局 LLM 并发限制 + 删除未接线的 provider 字段

- 删除 PredictRequest.provider(未接线,路由从未传入,符合禁令 #7)
- 新增 _GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE(默认 4) + _predict_with_concurrency:
  公开 /predict 所有模式汇总受全局并发限制,与 orchestrator 内 match 级
  Semaphore(8) 并存。

测试 test_p1_d_concurrency(4/4);全量 313 通过。

alembic/versions/0019_ingest_jobs.py

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+"""采集任务状态表 ingest_jobs
+
+Revision ID: 0019_ingest_jobs
+Revises: 0018_match_checks
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0019_ingest_jobs'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0018_match_checks'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_table(
+        'ingest_jobs',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.String(36), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('task', sa.String(20), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('params', sa.JSON(), nullable=False, server_default='{}'),
+        sa.Column('status', sa.String(20), nullable=False, server_default='pending'),
+        sa.Column('result', sa.JSON(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('error', sa.Text(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('created_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+        sa.Column('started_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('finished_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_ingest_job_status_created', 'ingest_jobs', ['status', 'created_at'])
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_ingest_job_status', 'ingest_jobs',
+        "status IN ('pending', 'running', 'success', 'failed')",
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_ingest_job_status', 'ingest_jobs', type_='check')
+    op.drop_index('ix_ingest_job_status_created', table_name='ingest_jobs')
+    op.drop_table('ingest_jobs')

alembic/versions/0020_team_aliases.py

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+"""球队别名表 team_aliases
+
+Revision ID: 0020_team_aliases
+Revises: 0019_ingest_jobs
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0020_team_aliases'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0019_ingest_jobs'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_table(
+        'team_aliases',
+        sa.Column('alias_normalized', sa.String(120), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('team_id', sa.Integer, sa.ForeignKey('teams.id', ondelete='CASCADE'), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('original_alias', sa.String(120), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('created_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_team_aliases_team_id', 'team_aliases', ['team_id'])
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_team_aliases_team_id', table_name='team_aliases')
+    op.drop_table('team_aliases')

alembic/versions/0021_match_source_event_id_unique.py

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+"""matches.source_event_id 部分唯一索引
+
+业务唯一键:同联赛同主客同自然天一条(ix_matches_unique,既有)。
+source_event_id 是上游 bzzoiro 的比赛 id,用于统计回填与血缘追踪;
+当它非空时应全局唯一(同一 upstream 比赛只对应一行 matches),
+避免同一场比赛因自然键天级舍入差异产生重复。
+
+partial unique(WHERE source_event_id IS NOT NULL):
+  - 兼容存量空 source_event_id 的历史行(不强制回填);
+  - 新采集行均带 source_event_id,从此具备 upstream 唯一性。
+
+Revision ID: 0021_match_source_event_id_unique
+Revises: 0020_team_aliases
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+
+revision: str = '0021_match_source_event_id_unique'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0020_team_aliases'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_index(
+        'ix_matches_source_event_id_unique',
+        'matches',
+        ['source_event_id'],
+        unique=True,
+        postgresql_where=op.text('source_event_id IS NOT NULL'),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_matches_source_event_id_unique', table_name='matches')

alembic/versions/0022_match_score_status.py

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+"""P0-01: 比分可信度——score_status + 允许完赛缺分(NULL,禁止伪造 0:0)
+
+替换 ck_matches_finished_has_score:引入 score_status(known/missing/unknown),
+完赛 + score_status=missing 时 home/away_goals 必须 NULL(不伪造比分)。
+
+Revision ID: 0022_match_score_status
+Revises: 0021_match_source_event_id_unique
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0022_match_score_status'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0021_match_source_event_id_unique'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 1) 新增 score_status 列(默认 unknown)
+    op.add_column(
+        'matches',
+        sa.Column('score_status', sa.String(20), server_default='unknown', nullable=False),
+    )
+
+    # 2) 按现有数据回填 score_status(绝不写 goals=0):
+    #    - 有比分(两列均非 NULL) → known
+    #    - 无比分 + 完赛 → missing(缺分)
+    #    - 其余 → unknown
+    op.execute(
+        "UPDATE matches SET score_status = 'known'"
+        " WHERE home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL"
+    )
+    op.execute(
+        "UPDATE matches SET score_status = 'missing'"
+        " WHERE match_status = 'finished' AND home_goals IS NULL AND away_goals IS NULL"
+    )
+
+    # 3) 删除旧约束,加新约束
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_finished_has_score', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_score_status_enum', 'matches',
+        "score_status IN ('known', 'missing', 'unknown')",
+    )
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_score_integrity', 'matches',
+        "match_status <> 'finished'"
+        " OR (score_status = 'known' AND home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)"
+        " OR (score_status IN ('missing', 'unknown') AND home_goals IS NULL AND away_goals IS NULL)",
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_score_integrity', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_score_status_enum', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_finished_has_score', 'matches',
+        "match_status <> 'finished' OR (home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)",
+    )
+    op.remove_column('matches', 'score_status')

alembic/versions/0023_standings_append_only.py

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+"""P0-02: 积分榜改为追加快照(append-only) + available_at
+
+去掉 uq_standings_league_season_team(league,season,team 唯一),
+改为 (league, season, team, available_at) 唯一;
+每次采集 INSERT 新行(available_at=now),支持回测还原历史榜单。
+
+Revision ID: 0023_standings_append_only
+Revises: 0022_match_score_status
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0023_standings_append_only'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0022_match_score_status'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+    # 1) 加 available_at 列(非空,默认 now;存量回填 retrieved_at 或 now)
+    op.add_column(
+        'standings',
+        sa.Column('available_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=False,
+                  server_default=sa.func.now()),
+    )
+    # 存量行: available_at 取 retrieved_at(若存在)否则 now
+    op.execute("UPDATE standings SET available_at = COALESCE(retrieved_at, NOW())")
+
+    # 2) 去旧唯一约束,加新唯一约束(league, season, team, available_at)
+    op.drop_constraint('uq_standings_league_season_team', 'standings', type_='unique')
+    op.drop_index('ix_standings_leason_season_pos', table_name='standings')
+    op.create_index('ix_standings_league_season_pos', 'standings', ['league_id', 'season', 'position'])
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        'uq_standings_league_season_team_available', 'standings',
+        ['league_id', 'season', 'team_id', 'available_at'],
+    )
+    op.create_index(
+        'ix_standings_league_season_team_available', 'standings',
+        ['league_id', 'season', 'team_id', 'available_at'],
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_standings_league_season_team_available', table_name='standings')
+    op.drop_constraint('uq_standings_league_season_team_available', 'standings', type_='unique')
+    op.drop_index('ix_standings_league_season_pos', table_name='standings')
+    op.create_index('ix_standings_leason_season_pos', 'standings', ['league_id', 'season', 'position'])
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        'uq_standings_league_season_team', 'standings',
+        ['league_id', 'season', 'team_id'],
+    )
+    op.drop_column('standings', 'available_at')

alembic/versions/0024_prediction_idempotent_fingerprint.py

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+"""P0-03: Prediction 幂等指纹——移除旧唯一约束,改为 partial unique on input_hash
+
+input_hash 非空时唯一(同指纹返回已有行,不 UPDATE/INSERT);
+兼容旧数据 NULL input_hash(不强制回填)。
+
+Revision ID: 0024_prediction_idempotent_fingerprint
+Revises: 0023_standings_append_only
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0024_prediction_idempotent_fingerprint'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0023_standings_append_only'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 移除旧唯一约束(match, provider, model, mode, run_type)
+    op.drop_constraint(
+        'uq_predictions_match_provider_model_mode_run_type',
+        'predictions', type_unique=True,
+    )
+    # P0-03: partial unique on input_hash(非空时唯一)
+    op.create_index(
+        'ix_predictions_input_hash_unique', 'predictions', ['input_hash'], unique=True,
+        postgresql_where=sa.text('input_hash IS NOT NULL'),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_predictions_input_hash_unique', table_name='predictions')
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        'uq_predictions_match_provider_model_mode_run_type',
+        'predictions',
+        ['match_id', 'provider', 'model', 'mode', 'run_type'],
+    )

docs/05-data.md

@@ -60,9 +60,65 @@
 
 ### 队名归一化
 
-`src/data/team_names.py` 维护 `NORMALIZE_MAP`(如 `Man City` → `Manchester City`),未命中映射的队名原样返回。
+`src/data.team_names.py` 维护 `NORMALIZE_MAP`(如 `Man City` → `Manchester City`),未命中映射的队名原样返回。
 归一前先做 Unicode NFKD 去重音。
 
+**唯一键是归一后英文名**:`teams.name` 带 `UNIQUE` 约束,所有入库路径均经 `TeamRepository.get_or_create` 收敛归一化
+(events / standings 管线在调用前归一,仓库层再做一次幂等归一作为兜底)。创建新 Team 时打 `info` 日志记录「原始名 → 归一后名」。
+
+> ⚠️ **`normalize` 当前大小写敏感**:仅当入参大小写与 `NORMALIZE_MAP` 键完全匹配时才触发映射
+>(如 `"Man City"` → `"Manchester City"`,但 `"man city"` 原样保留)。上游 bzzoiro 返回的队名首字母大写,
+>实际命中无问题;若新增数据源返回全小写/全大写队名,需先 `title()` 再归一,否则会绕过映射产生重复 Team。
+
+#### 别名机制(`team_aliases`)
+
+归一仍可能遗漏历史重复队(如 `"Bayern Munich"` 与 `"Bayern München"` 经 NFKD 后相同则命中,
+但 `"Man United"` vs `"Manchester United"` 若漏映射)。`team_aliases` 表提供**显式别名→teams.id** 映射:
+
+| 列 | 说明 |
+|----|------|
+| `alias_normalized` | PK,`normalize(别名)` 后的稳定幂等键 |
+| `team_id` | FK → `teams.id`(ON DELETE CASCADE) |
+| `original_alias` | 原始写法(保留供参考) |
+
+**定位三步链**(`get_or_create`):`normalize(name)` → 查 `teams.name` → 查 `team_aliases`(以 `normalize(name)` 为 PK)→ 都没有才 insert 新 Team。别名命中即复用已有 Team,避免产生重复。
+
+**添加别名**(不自动合并历史重复队):
+
+- **Admin 接口**(推荐):`POST /api/v1/admin/teams/aliases {"alias": "Man United", "team_id": 42}`(require_admin,幂等)
+- **直接 SQL**:
+  ```sql
+  INSERT INTO team_aliases(alias_normalized, team_id, original_alias)
+  VALUES ('man united', 42, 'Man United')
+  ON CONFLICT (alias_normalized) DO UPDATE SET team_id = EXCLUDED.team_id, original_alias = EXCLUDED.original_alias;
+  ```
+
+> ⚠️ **别名不自动合并**:发现历史重复队 A/B 后,需人工确认归一目标(如保留 B),再为 A 的归一名添加别名指向 B。
+> 合并前请确认 A 的 `matches`/`standings` 引用是否需要迁移(可先 `SELECT COUNT(*) FROM matches WHERE home_team_id = A.id OR away_team_id = A.id` 评估)。
+
+**改名 / 合并流程**(人工):
+
+当发现两个 `teams` 行实际是同一球队(如 `Manchester City` 与 `Man City` 因历史数据大小写差异各占一行):
+
+1. 确定**保留行**(通常选归一后规范名、且被更多 Match 引用的那行)。
+2. 将被删行的所有引用指向保留行(`UPDATE matches SET home_team_id = 保留id WHERE home_team_id = 删行id`,客场同理;
+   `standings` / `match_stats` 按 `team_id` 同理)。
+3. 删掉多余行:`DELETE FROM teams WHERE id = 删行id`。
+
+> 此过程引入外键约束风险,务必在事务中执行并先 `BEGIN; ... ` 验证行数后再 `COMMIT`。
+> 暂不做自动合并(避免误合相似名),仅通过下方 Admin 接口列出「近似重名」候选,由人工判定。
+
+## Admin:近似重名候选
+
+`GET /api/v1/admin/team-name-duplicates` 只读列出启发式相似候选(大小写差异、子串包含、前缀碰撞),不做自动合并。
+典型用途:定期巡检,发现候选后走上方人工 SQL 合并。启发式规则:
+
+- **大小写变体**:`lower(name)` 相同但 `name` 不同(如 `Arsenal FC` / `arsenal fc`)。
+- **子串包含**:A 是 B 的子串且长度 ≥ 5(如 `Manchester` / `Manchester City`)。
+- **前缀碰撞**:前 8 个字符相同的两队。
+
+命中任一规则即列为候选,按相似度分组返回。
+
 ## 数据库 Schema
 
 12 张表:核心业务表 5 张见下方 DDL,其余 7 张(积分榜/配置/调度/治理)见后文表格。
@@ -150,7 +206,7 @@ CREATE TABLE predictions (
 
 | 表 | 状态 | 用途 |
 |---|---|---|
-| `standings` | 已启用 | 联赛积分榜快照,按 `(league_id, season, team_id)` upsert,同联赛同赛季只保留最新快照;含排名/战绩/进失球/积分/分区(zone) |
+| `standings` | 已启用 | 联赛积分榜追加快照(P0-02):每次采集 INSERT 新行(available_at=now),唯一键 `(league_id, season, team_id, available_at)`;查询取每队 available_at 最新快照,支持回测还原历史榜单。含排名/战绩/进失球/积分/分区(zone) |
 | `app_settings` | 已启用 | 后台运行时设置(如数据源 API Key),读取时优先于 `.env` 默认值 |
 | `schedules` | 已启用 | 定时采集任务配置(task/cron/leagues/enabled),供内置调度器执行 |
 | `raw_events` | 预留未启用 | Bronze 层原始事件存档;规划中用于重放与审计 |
@@ -162,11 +218,25 @@ CREATE TABLE predictions (
 
 1. **`match_date_date`(天级日期)**: 用于天级去重。bzzoiro 返回的时间带时分秒,精确匹配不可靠,故拆出 `DATE` 列做唯一键。
 
-2. **`ix_matches_unique`**: `(league_id, home_team_id, away_team_id, match_date_date)` 唯一,保证同一场比赛重复采集时 upsert 而非插入重复行。
+2. **`ix_matches_unique`**: `(league_id, home_team_id, away_team_id, match_date_date)` 唯一,保证同一场比赛重复采集时 upsert 而非插入重复行。**业务唯一:同联赛同主客同自然天一条。**
 
-3. **`predictions` 级联删除**: `ON DELETE CASCADE`,删比赛时自动清其预测。
+3. **`source_event_id` 部分唯一**: `ix_matches_source_event_id_unique`(WHERE source_event_id IS NOT NULL)——上游 bzzoiro 的比赛 id,当非空时全局唯一。作用:
+   - 统计回填(`/events/{id}/stats/`)与 Bronze 血缘(/events/ 采集)通过它定位比赛,不依赖自然键天级舍入;
+   - 新采集行均带此 id,避免同一 upstream 比赛因时间戳差异绕开自然键产生重复。
+   - 存量空 source_event_id 历史行不受影响(不强制回填)。
 
-4. **`mode` + `prompt_version`**: `single` 模式存 `v1`/`v2`,`multi` 模式存 `multi_v1`/`multi_v2`,eval summary 按这两列天然分组对比。
+4. **`predictions` 级联删除**: `ON DELETE CASCADE`,删比赛时自动清其预测。
+
+5. **`mode` + `prompt_version`**: `single` 模式存 `v1`/`v2`,`multi` 模式存 `multi_v1`/`multi_v2`,eval summary 按这两列天然分组对比。
+
+## 采集 upsert 查找顺序
+
+events 管线按以下优先级定位已有比赛,命中即复用(更新):
+
+1. **`source_event_id`**(upstream event id,唯一索引命中)——最精确,跨自然键舍入差异;
+2. **自然键**:`(league_id, home_team_id, away_team_id, match_date_date)`(内存去重,覆盖无 event id 的采集)。
+
+两者都未命中 → insert 新比赛。
 
 ## 入库语义(幂等)
 
@@ -180,7 +250,7 @@ CREATE TABLE predictions (
 
 `task=stats` 只回填统计(xG/射门/控球等,也只补空),不创建比赛。
 
-`task=standings` 按 `(league_id, season, team_id)` upsert 积分榜快照,同一联赛同一赛季只保留最新一份。
+`task=standings` 追加快照(available_at=now,ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING);公开接口与切片均取每队 available_at 最新快照,支持回测还原历史榜单。
 
 ## 采集建议
 

docs/06-deployment.md

@@ -46,6 +46,9 @@ curl http://localhost:8000/health
 - [ ] **6. 反代信任头** — `TRUST_PROXY_HEADERS=True`,且**仅可信反代可达 API**;反代需设置 `X-Forwarded-For`(`$proxy_add_x_forwarded_for`)与 `X-Real-IP`,否则限流/日志按反代 IP 计数
 - [ ] **7. 限流前置到网关** — 推荐 Nginx `limit_req`(配置见[安全与限流](#安全与限流));应用内限流与 KeyRing 为**单进程内存实现**,多 worker 各自独立计数会把实际配额放大 N 倍(启动时会打印一次性告警)
 - [ ] **8. uvicorn 单 worker** — compose/Dockerfile 默认单 worker,保持即可;需横向扩容时先在网关统一限流,再起多实例(每实例仍单 worker)
+
+> ⚠️ **多 worker 陷阱**:应用内限流(`_RateLimiter`)与 KeyRing 均为**进程内纯内存状态**,多 worker 部署(如 `uvicorn --workers 4`)时各进程**各自独立计数、互不共享**——实际限流配额会被放大 N 倍、KeyRing 限流状态也不同步。
+> 若确需多 worker,必须前置 Nginx/网关做**全局限流**(见[安全与限流](#安全与限流)),并设环境变量 `STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER=True`(见下)在启动期强制拒绝多 worker,避免静默配额漂移。
 - [ ] **9. 启动后健康检查** — `curl /health` 返回 200(存活);`curl /health/ready` 返回 200(就绪,校验数据库连通,不可达时 503)
 - [ ] **10. 数据库迁移** — compose/Dockerfile 启动命令已内置 `alembic upgrade head && uvicorn …`,升级镜像重启即自动迁移,无需手动执行
 
@@ -99,10 +102,29 @@ cd frontend && npm install && npm run dev
 | `LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL` | ❌ | — | 终裁模型(回落 `LLM_MODEL`) |
 | `BZZOIRO_KEY` | ✅ | — | bzzoiro 数据源 Key(唯一数据源) |
 | `CORS_ORIGINS` | ❌ | `http://localhost:5173,...` | 允许的跨域来源 |
+| `STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER` | ❌ | `False` | `True` 时若以多 worker 启动则拒绝(防限流配额漂移) |
 | `SECRET_KEY` | ❌ | — | 加密主密钥(生产环境必填) |
 | `ADMIN_PASSWORD` | ❌ | — | 管理后台密码(留空=不启用) |
 | `ADMIN_API_KEY` | ❌ | — | 机器/脚本调用的 API Key |
 
+## 同站部署 vs 跨站 CSRF
+
+ Profeto 管理鉴权使用 **HttpOnly Cookie 会话**(登录后服务端写入),`allow_credentials=True` 的 CORS 配置允许浏览器跨域携带 Cookie——这也引入了 CSRF 面。部署拓扑决定风险等级:
+
+**同站部署(推荐)**: 前端与 API 同域(反代把 `/` 与 `/api` 都转发到同一后端,或同源端口)。
+  - 浏览器视为 **same-origin**,CORS 不触发;`SameSite=Lax` 会话 Cookie 天然阻断跨站请求携带。
+  - 风险最低。`CORS_ORIGINS` 可设为空或同域来源,仅作兜底。
+
+**跨站部署**: 前端与 API 不同域(如前端 `app.example.com`、API `api.example.com`,或开发时 `localhost:3000` → `localhost:8000`)。
+  - 必须把 API 域名列入 `CORS_ORIGINS`,且 `allow_credentials=True` 才能携带 Cookie。
+  - 此时任何被允许域下的页面都能构造带 Cookie 的请求 → **CSRF 面**:
+    - 状态变更接口(采集/回测/改密等写操作)要求**管理员 Cookie + 同域**,攻击者无法从第三方站点读取 Cookie,但可构造跨域表单/请求——`SameSite=Lax` 会阻断跨站 POST 表单提交(顶级导航 GET 仍放行),这是当前主要防线。
+    - `GET /api/v1/admin/*` 只读接口受 `SameSite=Lax` 下顶级导航可能被利用,但攻击者无法读取响应(CORS 不匹配时浏览器拦截)。
+  - **加固建议**:
+    1. 反代层加 `Origin`/`Referer` 校验,仅放行 `CORS_ORIGINS` 列表中的来源(即便 FastAPI CORS 已通过,反代校验是多一层纵深)。
+    2. 写操作要求自定义请求头(如 `X-Requested-With: XMLHttpRequest`),第三方站点无法在无预检下添加自定义头,天然阻断简单跨站 POST。
+    3. 生产强制 HTTPS(`APP_ENV=production` 下 Cookie 自动 `Secure`),防中间人窃 Cookie。
+
 ## LLM 提供商配置示例
 
 ### OpenAI

frontend/src/admin/dal.ts

@@ -21,6 +21,7 @@ import type {
   LLMAgentConfig,
   LogEntry,
   IngestSourceStatus,
+  IngestJob,
   MatchDetailOut,
   MatchContextOut,
   AdminStats,
@@ -362,6 +363,13 @@ export function fetchIngestStatus(): Promise<{ sources: IngestSourceStatus[] }>
   return api.get<{ sources: IngestSourceStatus[] }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/ingest/status`)
 }
 
+/**
+ * 采集任务状态轮询(单任务)
+ */
+export function fetchIngestJob(jobId: string): Promise<IngestJob> {
+  return api.get<IngestJob>(`${API_BASE}/admin/ingest/jobs/${jobId}`)
+}
+
 /**
  * 比赛详情(含最近预测摘要)
  */

frontend/src/admin/pages/Collection.tsx

@@ -11,9 +11,9 @@
  */
 
 import { useEffect, useState, useCallback, useRef } from 'react'
-import { triggerCollection, fetchLeagues, fetchIngestStatus } from '../dal'
-import type { IngestSourceStatus } from '../types'
-import type { CollectionRequest, League } from '../types'
+import { triggerCollection, fetchLeagues, fetchIngestJob } from '../dal'
+import type { IngestJob, League } from '../types'
+import type { CollectionRequest } from '../types'
 import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner } from '../components'
 
 const TASKS = [
@@ -23,7 +23,9 @@ const TASKS = [
   { value: 'all', label: '全量采集', desc: '依次采集比赛 + 积分榜 + 统计回填', icon: '⏵⏵' },
 ] as const
 
-type TaskStatus = 'idle' | 'running' | 'done' | 'error'
+type TaskUIStatus = 'idle' | 'running' | 'done' | 'error'
+
+const TERMINAL_STATUSES: ReadonlySet<string> = new Set(['success', 'failed'])
 
 export default function CollectionPage() {
   const [leagues, setLeagues] = useState<League[]>([])
@@ -49,13 +51,13 @@ export default function CollectionPage() {
   const [limit, setLimit] = useState(100)
   const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
   const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
-  const [result, setResult] = useState<{ title: string; detail: string } | null>(null)
 
-  // 任务进度反馈
-  const [taskStatus, setTaskStatus] = useState<TaskStatus>('idle')
+  // 任务进度反馈:跟踪真实 ingest_job 状态
+  const [taskStatus, setTaskStatus] = useState<TaskUIStatus>('idle')
+  const [jobId, setJobId] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [jobInfo, setJobInfo] = useState<IngestJob | null>(null)
   const [taskStartedAt, setTaskStartedAt] = useState<number | null>(null)
   const pollRef = useRef<ReturnType<typeof setInterval> | null>(null)
-  const [ingestSnap, setIngestSnap] = useState<IngestSourceStatus | null>(null)
 
   const loadLeagues = useCallback(async () => {
     const lg = await fetchLeagues()
@@ -64,30 +66,65 @@ export default function CollectionPage() {
 
   useEffect(() => { loadLeagues() }, [loadLeagues])
 
-  // 轮询采集状态(任务启动后)
-  const startPolling = useCallback(() => {
-    if (pollRef.current) clearInterval(pollRef.current)
-    pollRef.current = setInterval(async () => {
-      try {
-        const { sources } = await fetchIngestStatus()
-        const bz = sources.find(s => s.name === 'bzzoiro')
-        if (bz) setIngestSnap(bz)
-      } catch { /* ignore */ }
-    }, 5_000)
-  }, [])
-
+  // 轮询采集 job 直到终态(success/failed)
   const stopPolling = useCallback(() => {
     if (pollRef.current) { clearInterval(pollRef.current); pollRef.current = null }
   }, [])
 
   useEffect(() => () => stopPolling(), [stopPolling])
 
+  const startJobPolling = useCallback((id: string) => {
+    stopPolling()
+    const tick = async () => {
+      try {
+        const job = await fetchIngestJob(id)
+        setJobInfo(job)
+        if (TERMINAL_STATUSES.has(job.status)) {
+          setTaskStatus(job.status === 'success' ? 'done' : 'error')
+          stopPolling()
+        }
+      } catch { /* 单次轮询失败不影响后续 */ }
+    }
+    tick()
+    pollRef.current = setInterval(tick, 3_000)
+  }, [stopPolling])
+
   const isEventsTask = task === 'events' || task === 'all'
 
+  // 友好汇总 job.result
+  const jobSummary = (j: IngestJob | null): { title: string; detail: string } | null => {
+    if (!j) return null
+    if (j.status === 'failed') {
+      return { title: '采集失败', detail: j.error || '采集任务异常终止,请到「系统日志」查看详细堆栈。' }
+    }
+    if (j.status !== 'success') return null
+    const r = j.result as Record<string, unknown> | null
+    if (!r) return { title: '采集完成', detail: '任务成功(无汇总数据)。' }
+    const ev = r.events as Record<string, unknown> | undefined
+    const evTotal = ev ? (ev.total_inserted as number ?? 0) + (ev.total_updated as number ?? 0) : 0
+    const st = r.standings as Record<string, unknown> | undefined
+    const stTotal = st ? (st.total_upserted as number ?? 0) : 0
+    const stats = r.stats as Record<string, unknown> | undefined
+    const statsTotal = stats ? (stats.created as number ?? 0) + (stats.updated as number ?? 0) : 0
+    const evErr = (ev?.errors as string[] | undefined)?.length ?? 0
+    const stErr = (st?.errors as string[] | undefined)?.length ?? 0
+    const statsErr = (stats?.errors as string[] | undefined)?.length ?? 0
+    const totalErr = evErr + stErr + statsErr
+    const parts: string[] = []
+    if (ev) parts.push(`比赛 +${evTotal}`)
+    if (st) parts.push(`积分榜 +${stTotal}`)
+    if (stats) parts.push(`统计 +${statsTotal}`)
+    const detail = parts.length
+      ? `共更新: ${parts.join(' / ')}${totalErr ? `,错误 ${totalErr} 条(见日志)` : ''}`
+      : '任务成功'
+    return { title: '采集完成', detail }
+  }
+
   async function handleSubmit(e: React.FormEvent) {
     e.preventDefault()
     setError(null)
-    setResult(null)
+    setJobInfo(null)
+    setJobId(null)
     setLoading(true)
     setTaskStatus('running')
     setTaskStartedAt(Date.now())
@@ -103,18 +140,15 @@ export default function CollectionPage() {
         date_from: isEventsTask ? dateFrom || undefined : undefined,
         date_to: isEventsTask ? dateTo || undefined : undefined,
       }
-      await triggerCollection(body)
-      setResult({
-        title: '采集任务已启动',
-        detail: '正在后台执行(上游限速时可能需要数分钟)。完成结果与错误请到「系统日志」页查看(支持自动刷新)。',
-      })
-      // 启动轮询,跟踪状态
-      startPolling()
-      // 30 秒后自动停止轮询并标记完成
-      setTimeout(() => {
-        setTaskStatus('done')
-        stopPolling()
-      }, 30_000)
+      const res = await triggerCollection(body)
+      const id: string | undefined = res?.job_id
+      if (id) {
+        setJobId(id)
+        startJobPolling(id)
+      } else {
+        // 后端未返回 job_id(旧版兼容):退化为原逻辑
+        setTimeout(() => { setTaskStatus('done'); }, 30_000)
+      }
     } catch (err: unknown) {
       setTaskStatus('error')
       setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '采集触发失败')
@@ -125,6 +159,7 @@ export default function CollectionPage() {
   }
 
   const elapsed = taskStartedAt ? Math.round((Date.now() - taskStartedAt) / 1000) : 0
+  const summary = jobInfo ? jobSummary(jobInfo) : null
 
   return (
     <div className="space-y-6">
@@ -248,12 +283,11 @@ export default function CollectionPage() {
 
               {/* 消息提示 */}
               {error && <Alert kind="error" title="采集失败" message={error} onClose={() => setError(null)} />}
-              {result && (
+              {summary && (
                 <Alert
-                  kind="ok"
-                  title={result.title}
-                  message={result.detail || undefined}
-                  onClose={() => setResult(null)}
+                  kind={jobInfo?.status === 'success' ? 'ok' : 'error'}
+                  title={summary.title}
+                  message={summary.detail}
                 />
               )}
 
@@ -278,10 +312,10 @@ export default function CollectionPage() {
                 <div className="space-y-3">
                   <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs text-ink-700">
                     <Spinner />
-                    <span>任务执行中,已运行 {elapsed}s…</span>
+                    <span>任务执行中{jobId ? `(job ${jobId.slice(0, 8)}…)` : ''},已运行 {elapsed}s…</span>
                   </div>
                   <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">
-                    后台异步执行,关闭页面不影响结果。可稍后查看「系统日志」确认完成。
+                    后台异步执行,关闭页面不影响结果。每 3 秒自动轮询进度。
                   </p>
                 </div>
               )}
@@ -289,23 +323,25 @@ export default function CollectionPage() {
                 <div className="space-y-2">
                   <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs text-emerald-700">
                     <span className="inline-block h-2 w-2 rounded-full bg-emerald-500" />
-                    <span>任务已提交,后台执行中(可能尚未完成)</span>
+                    <span>采集完成{jobId ? `(job ${jobId.slice(0, 8)}…)` : ''}</span>
                   </div>
-                  <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">
-                    采集耗时取决于数据量。请到「系统日志」页查看最终结果。
-                  </p>
+                  {summary && <p className="text-2xs text-ink-500">{summary.detail}</p>}
                 </div>
               )}
               {taskStatus === 'error' && (
-                <p className="text-xs text-press">任务触发失败,请检查配置或网络。</p>
+                <div className="space-y-1">
+                  <p className="text-xs text-press">采集失败{jobId ? `(job ${jobId.slice(0, 8)}…)` : ''}</p>
+                  {jobInfo?.error && (
+                    <p className="text-2xs text-ink-500">{jobInfo.error.slice(0, 200)}</p>
                   )}
-              {ingestSnap?.last_success_at && (
-                <div className="mt-3 border-t border-ink-100 pt-3">
-                  <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">
-                    bzzoiro 最近一次采集: {new Date(ingestSnap.last_success_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })}
-                  </p>
                 </div>
               )}
+              {jobInfo?.created_at && (
+                <p className="mt-2 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                  创建于 {new Date(jobInfo.created_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })}
+                  {jobInfo.finished_at && ` · 完成于 ${new Date(jobInfo.finished_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })}`}
+                </p>
+              )}
             </CardBody>
           </Card>
 

frontend/src/admin/types.ts

@@ -283,6 +283,20 @@ export interface IngestSourceStatus {
   last_failure: IngestLastFailure | null
 }
 
+// ── 采集任务状态 ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface IngestJob {
+  id: string
+  task: string
+  params: Record<string, unknown>
+  status: 'pending' | 'running' | 'success' | 'failed'
+  result: Record<string, unknown> | null
+  error: string | null
+  created_at: string | null
+  started_at: string | null
+  finished_at: string | null
+}
+
 // ── 比赛详情 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
 
 export interface MatchRecentPrediction {

frontend/src/lib/http.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+/**
+ * P0-00: HTTP client method/body/headers 可信度测试。
+ * 运行: node --experimental-strip-types frontend/src/lib/http.test.ts
+ *
+ * 最小环境 polyfill:Node 22 自带 fetch/AbortController,本测试不触发 401 路径,
+ * 故 window.dispatchEvent 不会被调用,无需完整 DOM。
+ */
+import { test } from 'node:test'
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict'
+
+// 最小浏览器环境 polyfill(仅覆盖 http.ts 在 happy path 用到的全局)
+const store: Record<string, string> = {}
+// @ts-expect-error 测试用最小 window stub
+globalThis.window = {
+  dispatchEvent: () => false,
+  localStorage: {
+    getItem: (k: string) => store[k] ?? null,
+    setItem: (k: string, v: string) => { store[k] = v },
+    removeItem: (k: string) => { delete store[k] },
+  },
+}
+
+// 捕获每次 fetch 的入参供断言
+let lastInit: RequestInit | undefined
+globalThis.fetch = async (_url: string, init?: RequestInit) => {
+  lastInit = init
+  return new Response(JSON.stringify({ ok: true }), { status: 200, headers: { 'content-type': 'application/json' } })
+}
+
+const { http } = await import('./http.ts')
+
+test('GET: method=GET, 无 body, 无 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.get('/api/v1/matches')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'GET')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, undefined)
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], undefined)
+})
+
+test('POST: method=POST, 序列化 body, 有 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.post('/api/v1/matches', { a: 1 })
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'POST')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, JSON.stringify({ a: 1 }))
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], 'application/json')
+})
+
+test('POST 空 body: 不设 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.post('/api/v1/matches', undefined)
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'POST')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, undefined)
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], undefined)
+})
+
+test('PUT: method=PUT, 有 body 与 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.put('/api/v1/x', { b: 2 })
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'PUT')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, JSON.stringify({ b: 2 }))
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], 'application/json')
+})
+
+test('DELETE: method=DELETE, 无 body, 无 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.delete('/api/v1/x/1')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'DELETE')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, undefined)
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], undefined)
+})

frontend/src/lib/http.ts

@@ -49,10 +49,11 @@ async function request<T>(path: string, options: RequestOptions = {}): Promise<T
   }
 
   try {
-    const res = await fetch(url, {
-      signal: controller.signal,
-      headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
-    })
+    const method = (options.method ?? 'GET').toUpperCase()
+    const body = options.body
+    // 仅当有 body 时设置 Content-Type,避免 GET/DELETE 等无 body 请求被误标
+    const headers: Record<string, string> = body ? { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' } : {}
+    const res = await fetch(url, { signal: controller.signal, method, body, headers })
 
     if (!res.ok) {
       const rawText = await res.text()

frontend/src/pages/Standings.tsx

@@ -8,18 +8,9 @@
 import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
 import { fetchStandings } from '../admin/dal'
 import type { StandingsLeague, StandingRow } from '../admin/dal'
+import { useLeagues } from './matches/hooks/useLeagues'
 import { Spinner } from '../admin/components'
 
-const LEAGUES = [
-  { code: 'E0', name: '英超' },
-  { code: 'SP1', name: '西甲' },
-  { code: 'D1', name: '德甲' },
-  { code: 'I1', name: '意甲' },
-  { code: 'F1', name: '法甲' },
-  { code: 'CL', name: '欧冠' },
-  { code: 'EL', name: '欧联' },
-]
-
 const ZONE_META: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
   // 欧战资格
   'Champions League': { label: '欧冠区', cls: 'bg-emerald-100 text-emerald-700' },
@@ -64,7 +55,9 @@ function FormDots({ form }: { form?: string | null }) {
 }
 
 export default function StandingsPage() {
-  const [leagues, setLeagues] = useState<StandingsLeague[]>([])
+  // 统一数据源:复用 useLeagues hook(优先 API,失败回退本地常量)
+  const leagues = useLeagues()
+  const [standings, setStandings] = useState<StandingsLeague[]>([])
   const [activeLeague, setActiveLeague] = useState<string>('')
   const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
   const [switching, setSwitching] = useState(false)  // 切换联赛中
@@ -85,7 +78,7 @@ export default function StandingsPage() {
     setError(null)
     try {
       const data = await fetchStandings(code)
-      setLeagues(data.leagues)
+      setStandings(data.leagues)
       if (!activeLeague && data.leagues.length > 0) {
         setActiveLeague(data.leagues[0].league_code)
       }
@@ -104,7 +97,7 @@ export default function StandingsPage() {
     setSwitching(true)
     setActiveLeague(code)
     try {
-      await fetchStandings(code).then(data => setLeagues(data.leagues))
+      await fetchStandings(code).then(data => setStandings(data.leagues))
     } catch (err) {
       setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '加载失败')
     } finally {
@@ -112,26 +105,32 @@ export default function StandingsPage() {
     }
   }
 
-  const active = leagues.find(l => l.league_code === activeLeague) ?? leagues[0]
+  const active = standings.find(l => l.league_code === activeLeague) ?? standings[0]
 
   return (
     <div className="space-y-6">
       {/* 联赛切换 */}
       <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
-        {LEAGUES.map(l => (
+        {leagues.map(l => {
+          // 标记该联赛是否有积分榜数据:有数据可正常切换,无数据也可选中但显示空态
+          const hasData = standings.some(s => s.league_code === l.code)
+          const isEmpty = activeLeague === l.code && !hasData
+          return (
             <button
               key={l.code}
               onClick={() => switchLeague(l.code)}
               disabled={switching}
+              title={hasData ? undefined : '暂无积分榜数据'}
               className={`rounded border px-3 py-1.5 text-xs transition-colors disabled:opacity-50 ${
                 activeLeague === l.code
                   ? 'border-ink-900 bg-ink-900 text-paper-50'
                   : 'border-ink-200 text-ink-500 hover:border-ink-300'
-            }`}
+              } ${!hasData ? 'border-dashed' : ''}`}
             >
               {l.name}
             </button>
-        ))}
+          )
+        })}
       </div>
 
       {error && (

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/AgentsPanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,171 @@
+/**
+ * AgentsPanel: 五路专家意见 —— 可折叠 + 状态摘要 + 权重条形图 + 单路详情。
+ *
+ * P3-1: 从 MatchPredictPanel.PredictionPanel 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。
+ */
+import { useState } from 'react'
+import type { AgentReport, Prediction } from '../../types'
+import { AGENT_LABELS, CN_NUM } from '../../types'
+
+const STATUS_BADGE: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
+  ok: { label: '正常', cls: 'text-ink-500' },
+  no_data: { label: '无数据', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  error: { label: '调用失败', cls: 'text-press' },
+  parse_error: { label: '解析失败', cls: 'text-press' },
+}
+
+const SUFFICIENCY_LABEL: Record<string, string> = {
+  high: '充分',
+  medium: '一般',
+  low: '偏少',
+  none: '无',
+}
+
+/** home_edge(-1~1,正=利主队)的可视化:以中线为原点的双向细条 */
+function EdgeBar({ value }: { value: number }) {
+  const v = Math.max(-1, Math.min(1, value))
+  const half = Math.abs(v) * 50
+  return (
+    <div className="relative h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
+      <span className="absolute left-1/2 top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 bg-ink-400" />
+      <span
+        className={`absolute top-0 h-px transition-all duration-500 ${v >= 0 ? 'bg-press' : 'bg-ink-600'}`}
+        style={
+          v >= 0
+            ? { left: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
+            : { right: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
+        }
+      />
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 单路专家意见:汉字编号 + 细线行 */
+function AgentCard({ report: r, no }: { report: AgentReport; no: string }) {
+  const badge = STATUS_BADGE[r.status] ?? { label: r.status, cls: 'text-ink-400' }
+  const inactive = r.status !== 'ok'
+
+  return (
+    <details className="group border-b border-ink-200">
+      <summary className="flex cursor-pointer list-none items-baseline gap-2.5 px-1 py-3">
+        <span className="font-serif text-sm text-ink-400">{no}</span>
+        <span className="text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{AGENT_LABELS[r.agent] ?? r.agent}</span>
+        <span className={`text-2xs ${badge.cls}`}>{badge.label}</span>
+
+        <span className="ml-auto flex items-baseline gap-3 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+          {r.status === 'ok' && r.subjective_confidence !== null && (
+            <span>信心 {Math.round(r.subjective_confidence * 100)}%</span>
+          )}
+          {r.status === 'ok' && r.probable_score && (
+            <span className="font-serif font-bold text-ink-800">{r.probable_score}</span>
+          )}
+          <svg viewBox="0 0 20 20" className="h-3 w-3 self-center text-ink-300 transition-transform group-open:rotate-90" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true">
+            <path d="M7.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0l4 4a1 1 0 010 1.4l-4 4a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L10.6 10 7.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
+          </svg>
+        </span>
+      </summary>
+
+      <div className="space-y-3 px-1 pb-4 pl-7">
+        {inactive && (
+          <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
+            {r.status === 'no_data' && '该维度没有可用数据,已跳过 LLM 分析以节省额度(不影响其他专家)。'}
+            {r.status === 'error' && '该专家调用失败,本次结论未纳入其视角(fail-open 设计,不阻断整体预测)。'}
+            {r.status === 'parse_error' && '模型输出未通过格式校验,该报告已丢弃。'}
+          </p>
+        )}
+
+        {!inactive && r.home_edge !== null && (
+          <div>
+            <div className="mb-1.5 flex items-baseline justify-between text-2xs">
+              <span className="text-ink-500">主队优势</span>
+              <span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${r.home_edge > 0 ? 'text-press' : r.home_edge < 0 ? 'text-ink-700' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
+                {r.home_edge > 0 ? '+' : ''}{r.home_edge.toFixed(2)}
+              </span>
+            </div>
+            <EdgeBar value={r.home_edge} />
+            <div className="mt-1 flex justify-between text-2xs text-ink-400">
+              <span>利客队</span>
+              <span>利主队</span>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {r.analysis && (
+          <p className="font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{r.analysis}</p>
+        )}
+
+        {r.key_evidence.length > 0 && (
+          <ul className="space-y-1.5">
+            {r.key_evidence.map((e, i) => (
+              <li key={i} className="flex gap-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+                <span className="flex-shrink-0 text-ink-300" aria-hidden="true">—</span>
+                <span>{e}</span>
+              </li>
+            ))}
+          </ul>
+        )}
+
+        {r.exp_home_goals !== null && r.exp_away_goals !== null && (
+          <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">
+            进球期望 <span className="font-serif font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{r.exp_home_goals.toFixed(1)} - {r.exp_away_goals.toFixed(1)}</span>
+          </p>
+        )}
+
+        {!inactive && (
+          <p className="border-t border-ink-100 pt-2.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+            数据充分度 {SUFFICIENCY_LABEL[r.data_sufficiency] ?? r.data_sufficiency}
+            <span className="mx-2 text-ink-200">|</span>
+            <span className="font-mono">{r.model}</span>
+            {r.latency_ms !== null && <span className="ml-2 tabular-nums">{r.latency_ms}ms</span>}
+          </p>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </details>
+  )
+}
+
+export function AgentsPanel({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
+  const [expertsOpen, setExpertsOpen] = useState(false)
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+  const reports = prediction.agent_outputs ?? []
+  const okReports = reports.filter(r => r.status === 'ok')
+
+  if (reports.length === 0) return null
+
+  return (
+    <section>
+      <button
+        onClick={() => setExpertsOpen(o => !o)}
+        className="flex w-full items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 pb-2 text-left"
+      >
+        <span className="section-head mb-0">五路专家意见({okReports.length}/{reports.length} 路有效)</span>
+        <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">{expertsOpen ? '收起' : '展开'}</span>
+      </button>
+
+      {!degraded && prediction.agent_weights && Object.keys(prediction.agent_weights).length > 0 && (
+        <div className="mt-3 space-y-1.5">
+          <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">终裁权重分布</span>
+          {Object.entries(prediction.agent_weights)
+            .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])
+            .map(([k, v]) => (
+              <div key={k} className="grid grid-cols-[96px_minmax(0,1fr)_40px] items-center gap-2">
+                <span className="truncate text-2xs text-ink-500">{AGENT_LABELS[k] ?? k}</span>
+                <div className="h-1.5 bg-paper-100">
+                  <div className="h-full bg-press" style={{ width: `${Math.round(v * 100)}%` }} />
+                </div>
+                <span className="text-right text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">{Math.round(v * 100)}%</span>
+              </div>
+            ))}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {expertsOpen && (
+        <div className="mt-2">
+          {reports.map((r, i) => (
+            <AgentCard key={r.agent} report={r} no={CN_NUM[i] ?? String(i + 1)} />
+          ))}
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </section>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/MatchPredictPanel.tsx

@@ -6,37 +6,11 @@
  */
 import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
 import TeamSideTag from '../../../components/TeamSideTag'
-import type { AgentReport, Match, Prediction } from '../types'
-import { AGENT_LABELS, CN_NUM, OUTCOME_LABEL } from '../types'
-
-/** 置信度细线:0~1 数值的低调可视化 */
-function Meter({ value }: { value: number }) {
-  const pct = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Math.round(value * 100)))
-  return (
-    <div className="h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
-      <div className="h-px bg-press transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${pct}%` }} />
-    </div>
-  )
-}
-
-/** home_edge(-1~1,正=利主队)的可视化:以中线为原点的双向细条 */
-function EdgeBar({ value }: { value: number }) {
-  const v = Math.max(-1, Math.min(1, value))
-  const half = Math.abs(v) * 50
-  return (
-    <div className="relative h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
-      <span className="absolute left-1/2 top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 bg-ink-400" />
-      <span
-        className={`absolute top-0 h-px transition-all duration-500 ${v >= 0 ? 'bg-press' : 'bg-ink-600'}`}
-        style={
-          v >= 0
-            ? { left: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
-            : { right: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
-        }
-      />
-    </div>
-  )
-}
+import type { Match, Prediction } from '../types'
+import { AGENT_LABELS } from '../types'
+import { AgentsPanel } from './AgentsPanel'
+import { OutcomePanel } from './OutcomePanel'
+import { ReasoningPanel } from './ReasoningPanel'
 
 function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
   return (
@@ -53,77 +27,73 @@ function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
 }
 
 /** 胜平负一行文字:选中的红字加方块标记,未选中的退灰 */
-function OutcomeLine({
-  pick,
-  confidence,
+.**
+ * P3-1:PredictionPanel 不再自绘,改为组合三个子组件:
+ *   OutcomePanel(比分/胜平负/成本) / AgentsPanel(专家意见) / ReasoningPanel(终裁/降级)。
+ * 渲染输出与拆分前完全一致(仅降级警示 + 报头 + 元信息仍在此处)。
+ */
+function PredictionPanel({
+  prediction,
+  match,
+  embedded = false,
 }: {
-  pick: string | null
-  confidence: number | null
+  prediction: Prediction
+  match: Match
+  /** 弹窗嵌入模式:弹窗已提供报头,这里省略自带版头 */
+  embedded?: boolean
 }) {
-  const options = ['1', 'X', '2'] as const
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+  const reports = prediction.agent_outputs ?? []
+  const okReports = reports.filter(r => r.status === 'ok')
+
   return (
-    <div>
-      <div className="flex items-baseline justify-center gap-6 sm:gap-10">
-        {options.map(o => {
-          const on = pick === o
-          return (
-            <div key={o} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1">
-              <span className={`flex items-center gap-1.5 text-sm ${on ? 'font-semibold text-press' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
-                {on && <span className="inline-block h-2 w-2 bg-press" aria-hidden="true" />}
-                {OUTCOME_LABEL[o]}
-              </span>
-              {on && confidence !== null && (
+    <article className={embedded ? 'bg-paper-50' : 'border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50'}>
+      {!embedded && (
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-2 border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
+        <h3 className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+          预测版 ·
+          <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+          {homeName}
+          <span>对</span>
+          <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+          {awayName}
+        </h3>
         <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
-                  置信 {Math.round(confidence * 100)}%
+          {prediction.provider} / {prediction.model}
+          {prediction.latency_ms !== null && ` · ${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`}
         </span>
-              )}
-            </div>
-          )
-        })}
-      </div>
-      {pick && confidence !== null && (
-        <div className="mx-auto mt-3 max-w-xs">
-          <Meter value={confidence} />
-          <p className="mt-1 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">主观置信度,非统计概率</p>
       </div>
       )}
+
+      <div className="space-y-7 px-4 py-6 sm:px-5">
+        {degraded && (
+          <div className="border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-4 py-3">
+            <p className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-press-dark">
+              {prediction.status === 'failed' ? '预测失败' : '预测降级(degraded)'}
+            </p>
+            <p className="mt-1.5 whitespace-pre-wrap text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+              {prediction.reasoning || '所有专家均无有效数据或调用失败,无法生成可靠比分。'}
+            </p>
           </div>
+        )}
+
+        {!degraded && <OutcomePanel prediction={prediction} match={match} />}
+
+        <p className="text-center text-2xs text-ink-500">
+          `多专家模式 · ${okReports.length}/${reports.length} 路有效`
+          {prediction.prompt_version && ` · prompt ${prediction.prompt_version}`}
+        </p>
+
+        <AgentsPanel prediction={prediction} />
+
+        <ReasoningPanel prediction={prediction} />
+      </div>
+    </article>
   )
 }
 
-/** 预测成本展示:耗时 + token + 限流余量 */
-function PredictionCost({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
-  const latency = prediction.latency_ms != null ? `${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s` : null
-  const tokens = prediction.prompt_tokens != null || prediction.completion_tokens != null
-    ? `${prediction.prompt_tokens ?? '?'}/${prediction.completion_tokens ?? '?'}`
-    : null
-
-  if (!latency && !tokens && prediction.rate_limit_remaining == null) return null
-
-  return (
-    <div className="border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-2xs text-ink-500">
-      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1">
-        {latency && (
-          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
-            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">⏱</span>耗时 {latency}
-          </span>
-        )}
-        {tokens && (
-          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
-            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">Tok</span>prompt/completion: {tokens}
-          </span>
-        )}
-        {prediction.rate_limit_remaining != null && prediction.rate_limit_remaining <= 3 && (
-          <span className="text-press" title="每分钟最多 10 次预测">
-            剩余配额: {prediction.rate_limit_remaining}/10(分钟)
-          </span>
-        )}
-      </div>
-    </div>
-  )
-}
-
-/** 预测过程阶段(按时长模拟;结果到达即跳到完成) */
 function PredictProgress() {
   const [elapsed, setElapsed] = useState(0)
   useEffect(() => {
@@ -199,256 +169,6 @@ function PredictProgress() {
     </div>
   )
 }
-
-const STATUS_BADGE: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
-  ok: { label: '正常', cls: 'text-ink-500' },
-  no_data: { label: '无数据', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
-  error: { label: '调用失败', cls: 'text-press' },
-  parse_error: { label: '解析失败', cls: 'text-press' },
-}
-
-const SUFFICIENCY_LABEL: Record<string, string> = {
-  high: '充分',
-  medium: '一般',
-  low: '偏少',
-  none: '无',
-}
-
-/** 单路专家意见:汉字编号 + 细线行 */
-function AgentCard({ report: r, no }: { report: AgentReport; no: string }) {
-  const badge = STATUS_BADGE[r.status] ?? { label: r.status, cls: 'text-ink-400' }
-  const inactive = r.status !== 'ok'
-
-  return (
-    <details className="group border-b border-ink-200">
-      <summary className="flex cursor-pointer list-none items-baseline gap-2.5 px-1 py-3">
-        <span className="font-serif text-sm text-ink-400">{no}</span>
-        <span className="text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{AGENT_LABELS[r.agent] ?? r.agent}</span>
-        <span className={`text-2xs ${badge.cls}`}>{badge.label}</span>
-
-        <span className="ml-auto flex items-baseline gap-3 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
-          {r.status === 'ok' && r.subjective_confidence !== null && (
-            <span>信心 {Math.round(r.subjective_confidence * 100)}%</span>
-          )}
-          {r.status === 'ok' && r.probable_score && (
-            <span className="font-serif font-bold text-ink-800">{r.probable_score}</span>
-          )}
-          <svg viewBox="0 0 20 20" className="h-3 w-3 self-center text-ink-300 transition-transform group-open:rotate-90" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true">
-            <path d="M7.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0l4 4a1 1 0 010 1.4l-4 4a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L10.6 10 7.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
-          </svg>
-        </span>
-      </summary>
-
-      <div className="space-y-3 px-1 pb-4 pl-7">
-        {/* 无数据 / 失败时给出明确说明,避免用户以为是空白 bug */}
-        {inactive && (
-          <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
-            {r.status === 'no_data' && '该维度没有可用数据,已跳过 LLM 分析以节省额度(不影响其他专家)。'}
-            {r.status === 'error' && '该专家调用失败,本次结论未纳入其视角(fail-open 设计,不阻断整体预测)。'}
-            {r.status === 'parse_error' && '模型输出未通过格式校验,该报告已丢弃。'}
-          </p>
-        )}
-
-        {!inactive && r.home_edge !== null && (
-          <div>
-            <div className="mb-1.5 flex items-baseline justify-between text-2xs">
-              <span className="text-ink-500">主队优势</span>
-              <span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${r.home_edge > 0 ? 'text-press' : r.home_edge < 0 ? 'text-ink-700' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
-                {r.home_edge > 0 ? '+' : ''}{r.home_edge.toFixed(2)}
-              </span>
-            </div>
-            <EdgeBar value={r.home_edge} />
-            <div className="mt-1 flex justify-between text-2xs text-ink-400">
-              <span>利客队</span>
-              <span>利主队</span>
-            </div>
-          </div>
-        )}
-
-        {r.analysis && (
-          <p className="font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{r.analysis}</p>
-        )}
-
-        {r.key_evidence.length > 0 && (
-          <ul className="space-y-1.5">
-            {r.key_evidence.map((e, i) => (
-              <li key={i} className="flex gap-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
-                <span className="flex-shrink-0 text-ink-300" aria-hidden="true">—</span>
-                <span>{e}</span>
-              </li>
-            ))}
-          </ul>
-        )}
-
-        {r.exp_home_goals !== null && r.exp_away_goals !== null && (
-          <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">
-            进球期望 <span className="font-serif font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{r.exp_home_goals.toFixed(1)} - {r.exp_away_goals.toFixed(1)}</span>
-          </p>
-        )}
-
-        {!inactive && (
-          <p className="border-t border-ink-100 pt-2.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">
-            数据充分度 {SUFFICIENCY_LABEL[r.data_sufficiency] ?? r.data_sufficiency}
-            <span className="mx-2 text-ink-200">|</span>
-            <span className="font-mono">{r.model}</span>
-            {r.latency_ms !== null && <span className="ml-2 tabular-nums">{r.latency_ms}ms</span>}
-          </p>
-        )}
-      </div>
-    </details>
-  )
-}
-
-function PredictionPanel({
-  prediction,
-  match,
-  embedded = false,
-}: {
-  prediction: Prediction
-  match: Match
-  /** 弹窗嵌入模式:弹窗已提供报头,这里省略自带版头 */
-  embedded?: boolean
-}) {
-  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
-  const [expertsOpen, setExpertsOpen] = useState(false)
-  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
-  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
-  const reports = prediction.agent_outputs ?? []
-  const okReports = reports.filter(r => r.status === 'ok')
-
-  return (
-    <article className={embedded ? 'bg-paper-50' : 'border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50'}>
-      {!embedded && (
-      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-2 border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
-        <h3 className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
-          预测版 ·
-          <TeamSideTag side="home" />
-          {homeName}
-          <span>对</span>
-          <TeamSideTag side="away" />
-          {awayName}
-        </h3>
-        <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
-          {prediction.provider} / {prediction.model}
-          {prediction.latency_ms !== null && ` · ${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`}
-        </span>
-      </div>
-      )}
-
-      <div className="space-y-7 px-4 py-6 sm:px-5">
-        {/* ── degraded / failed 态:醒目警示 + 原因,不展示虚假比分 ── */}
-        {degraded && (
-          <div className="border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-4 py-3">
-            <p className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-press-dark">
-              {prediction.status === 'failed' ? '预测失败' : '预测降级(degraded)'}
-            </p>
-            <p className="mt-1.5 whitespace-pre-wrap text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
-              {prediction.reasoning || '所有专家均无有效数据或调用失败,无法生成可靠比分。'}
-            </p>
-          </div>
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 主结论(仅 success 展示) ── */}
-        {!degraded && (
-          <>
-            <div className="text-center">
-              <p className="font-serif text-5xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900 sm:text-6xl">
-                {prediction.pred_home_goals ?? '-'}
-                <span className="mx-3 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>
-                {prediction.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}
-              </p>
-              <p className="mt-3 text-2xs tracking-[0.5em] text-ink-400">预测比分</p>
-              {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals != null && prediction.alt_pred_away_goals != null && (
-                <p className="mt-2 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
-                  备选{' '}
-                  <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-600">
-                    {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals}<span className="mx-0.5 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>{prediction.alt_pred_away_goals}
-                  </span>
-                </p>
-              )}
-            </div>
-
-            <div className="border-y border-ink-200 py-4">
-              <OutcomeLine pick={prediction.pred_1x2} confidence={prediction.subjective_confidence} />
-            </div>
-          </>
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 成本信息(耗时 + token + 限流余量) ── */}
-        {!degraded && (
-          <PredictionCost prediction={prediction} />
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 元信息 ── */}
-        <p className="text-center text-2xs text-ink-500">
-          `多专家模式 · ${okReports.length}/${reports.length} 路有效`
-          {prediction.prompt_version && ` · prompt ${prediction.prompt_version}`}
-        </p>
-
-        {/* ── 终裁/降级说明意见 ── */}
-        {prediction.reasoning && degraded && (
-          <section>
-            <h4 className="section-head mb-2">降级原因</h4>
-            <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
-              <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
-            </blockquote>
-          </section>
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 专家意见(多模式):可折叠 + 状态摘要 + 权重条形图 ── */}
-        {reports.length > 0 && (
-          <section>
-            <button
-              onClick={() => setExpertsOpen(o => !o)}
-              className="flex w-full items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 pb-2 text-left"
-            >
-              <span className="section-head mb-0">五路专家意见({okReports.length}/{reports.length} 路有效)</span>
-              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">{expertsOpen ? '收起' : '展开'}</span>
-            </button>
-
-            {/* 权重条形图(仅 success 且有权重时显示) */}
-            {!degraded && prediction.agent_weights && Object.keys(prediction.agent_weights).length > 0 && (
-              <div className="mt-3 space-y-1.5">
-                <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">终裁权重分布</span>
-                {Object.entries(prediction.agent_weights)
-                  .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])
-                  .map(([k, v]) => (
-                    <div key={k} className="grid grid-cols-[96px_minmax(0,1fr)_40px] items-center gap-2">
-                      <span className="truncate text-2xs text-ink-500">{AGENT_LABELS[k] ?? k}</span>
-                      <div className="h-1.5 bg-paper-100">
-                        <div className="h-full bg-press" style={{ width: `${Math.round(v * 100)}%` }} />
-                      </div>
-                      <span className="text-right text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">{Math.round(v * 100)}%</span>
-                    </div>
-                  ))}
-              </div>
-            )}
-
-            {expertsOpen && (
-              <div className="mt-2">
-                {reports.map((r, i) => (
-                  <AgentCard key={r.agent} report={r} no={CN_NUM[i] ?? String(i + 1)} />
-                ))}
-              </div>
-            )}
-          </section>
-        )}
-
-        {/* ── 终裁意见(success) ── */}
-        {prediction.reasoning && !degraded && (
-          <section>
-            <h4 className="section-head mb-3">终裁意见</h4>
-            <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
-              <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
-            </blockquote>
-          </section>
-        )}
-      </div>
-    </article>
-  )
-}
-
-/** 预测弹窗:进行中显示过程可视化,完成后显示预测版,失败显示原因 */
 export function PredictModal({
   match,
   predicting,

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/OutcomePanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
+/**
+ * OutcomePanel: 预测主结论 —— 比分 / 胜平负 / 置信度 / 成本。
+ *
+ * P3-1: 从 MatchPredictPanel.PredictionPanel 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。
+ */
+import TeamSideTag from '../../../../components/TeamSideTag'
+import type { Match, Prediction } from '../../types'
+import { OUTCOME_LABEL } from '../../types'
+
+/** 置信度细线:0~1 数值的低调可视化 */
+function Meter({ value }: { value: number }) {
+  const pct = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Math.round(value * 100)))
+  return (
+    <div className="h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
+      <div className="h-px bg-press transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${pct}%` }} />
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 胜平负一行文字:选中的红字加方块标记,未选中的退灰 */
+function OutcomeLine({
+  pick,
+  confidence,
+}: {
+  pick: string | null
+  confidence: number | null
+}) {
+  const options = ['1', 'X', '2'] as const
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <div className="flex items-baseline justify-center gap-6 sm:gap-10">
+        {options.map(o => {
+          const on = pick === o
+          return (
+            <div key={o} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1">
+              <span className={`flex items-center gap-1.5 text-sm ${on ? 'font-semibold text-press' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
+                {on && <span className="inline-block h-2 w-2 bg-press" aria-hidden="true" />}
+                {OUTCOME_LABEL[o]}
+              </span>
+              {on && confidence !== null && (
+                <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+                  置信 {Math.round(confidence * 100)}%
+                </span>
+              )}
+            </div>
+          )
+        })}
+      </div>
+      {pick && confidence !== null && (
+        <div className="mx-auto mt-3 max-w-xs">
+          <Meter value={confidence} />
+          <p className="mt-1 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">主观置信度,非统计概率</p>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 预测成本展示:耗时 + token + 限流余量 */
+function PredictionCost({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
+  const latency = prediction.latency_ms != null ? `${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s` : null
+  const tokens = prediction.prompt_tokens != null || prediction.completion_tokens != null
+    ? `${prediction.prompt_tokens ?? '?'}/${prediction.completion_tokens ?? '?'}`
+    : null
+
+  if (!latency && !tokens && prediction.rate_limit_remaining == null) return null
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1">
+        {latency && (
+          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
+            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">⏱</span>耗时 {latency}
+          </span>
+        )}
+        {tokens && (
+          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
+            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">Tok</span>prompt/completion: {tokens}
+          </span>
+        )}
+        {prediction.rate_limit_remaining != null && prediction.rate_limit_remaining <= 3 && (
+          <span className="text-press" title="每分钟最多 10 次预测">
+            剩余配额: {prediction.rate_limit_remaining}/10(分钟)
+          </span>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+export function OutcomePanel({ prediction, match }: { prediction: Prediction; match: Match }) {
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+
+  return (
+    <>
+      {!degraded && (
+        <div className="text-center">
+          <p className="font-serif text-5xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900 sm:text-6xl">
+            {prediction.pred_home_goals ?? '-'}
+            <span className="mx-3 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>
+            {prediction.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}
+          </p>
+          <p className="mt-3 text-2xs tracking-[0.5em] text-ink-400">预测比分</p>
+          {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals != null && prediction.alt_pred_away_goals != null && (
+            <p className="mt-2 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
+              备选{' '}
+              <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-600">
+                {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals}<span className="mx-0.5 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>{prediction.alt_pred_away_goals}
+              </span>
+            </p>
+          )}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {!degraded && (
+        <div className="border-y border-ink-200 py-4">
+          <OutcomeLine pick={prediction.pred_1x2} confidence={prediction.subjective_confidence} />
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {!degraded && <PredictionCost prediction={prediction} />}
+    </>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/ReasoningPanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+/**
+ * ReasoningPanel: 终裁意见 / 降级原因 —— 预测的文本解释。
+ *
+ * P3-1: 从 MatchPredictPanel.PredictionPanel 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。
+ */
+import type { Prediction } from '../../types'
+
+export function ReasoningPanel({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+
+  if (!prediction.reasoning) return null
+
+  // 降级态:reasoning 展示为「降级原因」
+  if (degraded) {
+    return (
+      <section>
+        <h4 className="section-head mb-2">降级原因</h4>
+        <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
+          <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
+        </blockquote>
+      </section>
+    )
+  }
+
+  // 成功态:reasoning 展示为「终裁意见」
+  return (
+    <section>
+      <h4 className="section-head mb-3">终裁意见</h4>
+      <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
+        <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
+      </blockquote>
+    </section>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/types.ts

@@ -78,6 +78,8 @@ export const LEAGUES = [
   { code: 'D1', name: '德甲' },
   { code: 'I1', name: '意甲' },
   { code: 'F1', name: '法甲' },
+  { code: 'CL', name: '欧冠' },
+  { code: 'EL', name: '欧联' },
 ]
 
 /** 汉字编号,给专家意见排版用 */

src/api/app.py

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 import logging
+import os
 from collections.abc import AsyncIterator
 from contextlib import asynccontextmanager
 
@@ -40,6 +41,24 @@ async def lifespan(app: FastAPI) -> AsyncIterator[None]:
             "多 worker 部署请将限流前置到 Nginx/网关,或以单 worker 运行"
         )
 
+    # P3-3:STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER 启动期强制校验,拒绝多 worker 静默配额漂移。
+    # uvicorn 通过 --workers 传入;此处以环境变量 UVICORN_WORKERS 或启动参数判定。
+    # 为避免耦合 uvicorn 内部,仅校验一个显式传入的标记:当 STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER=True 时,
+    # 要求环境变量 UVICORN_WORKERS 不为空且 <=1,否则拒绝启动。
+    if settings.STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER:
+        workers = os.environ.get("UVICORN_WORKERS", "1")
+        try:
+            n_workers = int(workers)
+        except ValueError:
+            n_workers = 1
+        if n_workers > 1:
+            raise RuntimeError(
+                f"STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER=True 但以 {n_workers} worker 启动会被拒绝 "
+                f"(应用内限流/KeyRing 多 worker 下各自独立计数,配额放大 {n_workers} 倍)。"
+                f"请前置 Nginx/网关全局限流后再启用多 worker,或保持单 worker。"
+            )
+        logger.info("STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER=True:已确认单 worker 启动,限流配额不会漂移")
+
     # 注册默认定时任务(如果数据库中没有)
     from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
     from sqlalchemy import select

src/api/routes/admin_config.py

@@ -0,0 +1,88 @@
+"""后台管理:配置项 CRUD(settings)与运行日志查询。
+
+所有接口需管理员鉴权(require_admin)。路由前缀 /api/v1/admin。
+配置项白名单见 src/core/runtime_config.py SETTING_DEFS,之外的 key 一律拒绝。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException, Query
+from pydantic import BaseModel
+
+from src.api.deps import require_admin
+from src.core.log_buffer import get_entries
+from src.core.runtime_config import (
+    SETTING_DEFS,
+    clear_runtime_value,
+    get_setting_origin,
+    mask_value,
+    set_runtime_value,
+)
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1/admin", tags=["admin"], dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
+
+
+class SettingUpdateIn(BaseModel):
+    value: str
+
+
+@router.get("/settings")
+async def list_settings():
+    """全部可配置项(脱敏),供后台各配置页渲染。"""
+    out = []
+    for key, defn in SETTING_DEFS.items():
+        origin, value = await get_setting_origin(key)
+        out.append(
+            {
+                "key": key,
+                "label": defn.label,
+                "description": defn.description,
+                "sensitive": defn.sensitive,
+                "configured": origin != "none",
+                "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive),
+                "origin": origin,
+            }
+        )
+    return out
+
+
+@router.get("/logs")
+async def read_logs(
+    level: str | None = Query(None, description="最低级别: DEBUG/INFO/WARNING/ERROR"),
+    keyword: str | None = Query(None, description="消息或 logger 关键字"),
+    limit: int = Query(200, ge=1, le=1000),
+):
+    """查询应用运行日志(内存环形缓冲,最新在前;进程重启后清零)。"""
+    entries = get_entries(level, keyword, limit)
+    return {"entries": entries, "count": len(entries)}
+
+
+@router.put("/settings/{key}")
+async def update_setting(key: str, body: SettingUpdateIn):
+    """更新配置项(写入 app_settings 覆盖 .env)。传空值请改用 DELETE。"""
+    if key not in SETTING_DEFS:
+        raise HTTPException(404, f"不支持的配置项: {key}")
+    value = body.value.strip()
+    if not value:
+        raise HTTPException(400, "值不能为空;如需回落 .env 请调用清除接口")
+    await set_runtime_value(key, value)
+    defn = SETTING_DEFS[key]
+    return {"key": key, "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive), "origin": "db"}
+
+
+@router.delete("/settings/{key}")
+async def clear_setting(key: str):
+    """清除 DB 覆盖值,回落 .env 默认。"""
+    if key not in SETTING_DEFS:
+        raise HTTPException(404, f"不支持的配置项: {key}")
+    await clear_runtime_value(key)
+    origin, value = await get_setting_origin(key)
+    defn = SETTING_DEFS[key]
+    return {
+        "key": key,
+        "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive),
+        "origin": origin,
+    }

src/api/routes/admin_datasources.py

@@ -0,0 +1,228 @@
+"""后台管理:数据源列表/连通性测试、KeyRing 状态、采集健康概览。
+
+所有接口需管理员鉴权(require_admin)。路由前缀 /api/v1/admin。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+import time
+from datetime import date, datetime
+
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
+from sqlalchemy import func, select
+
+from src.api.deps import require_admin
+from src.core.config import settings
+from src.core.http_client import get_client
+from src.core.runtime_config import (
+    SETTING_DEFS,
+    get_runtime_value,
+    get_setting_origin,
+    mask_value,
+)
+from src.db.base import AsyncSession, get_db_read
+from src.db.models import Match, MatchStats, Standing
+from src.data.key_ring import get_key_ring
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1/admin", tags=["admin"], dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
+
+# ── 数据源元数据(bzzoiro 单一数据源) ────────────────────────────
+
+_SOURCES: list[dict] = [
+    {
+        "name": "bzzoiro",
+        "label": "Bzzoiro",
+        "description": "唯一数据源:赛程比分 + 积分榜 + 比赛详细统计(xG/射门/控球等)",
+        "setting_keys": ["BZZOIRO_KEY", "BZZOIRO_BASE"],
+    },
+]
+
+
+async def _last_ingestion(db: AsyncSession, source: str) -> datetime | None:
+    """源最近一次采集时间(取自数据血缘字段,无记录返回 None)。"""
+    return (
+        await db.execute(
+            select(func.max(MatchStats.retrieved_at)).where(MatchStats.source == source)
+        )
+    ).scalar()
+
+
+@router.get("/datasources")
+async def list_datasources(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """数据源列表:各配置项的脱敏值、来源(db/env/none)与最近采集时间。"""
+    result = []
+    for src in _SOURCES:
+        settings_out = []
+        for key in src["setting_keys"]:
+            origin, value = await get_setting_origin(key)
+            defn = SETTING_DEFS[key]
+            settings_out.append(
+                {
+                    "key": key,
+                    "label": defn.label,
+                    "description": defn.description,
+                    "sensitive": defn.sensitive,
+                    "configured": origin != "none",
+                    "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive),
+                    "origin": origin,
+                }
+            )
+        key_configured = all(s["configured"] for s in settings_out) if settings_out else True
+        last = await _last_ingestion(db, src["name"])
+        result.append(
+            {
+                "name": src["name"],
+                "label": src["label"],
+                "description": src["description"],
+                "key_configured": key_configured,
+                "last_ingestion": last.isoformat() if last else None,
+                "settings": settings_out,
+            }
+        )
+    return result
+
+
+# ── 连通性测试 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+_TEST_TIMEOUT = 15
+
+
+async def _probe(url: str, headers: dict | None = None, params: dict | None = None) -> dict:
+    """单次 HTTP 探测,返回 (ok, status, latency_ms, detail)。不重试。"""
+    client = get_client()
+    start = time.monotonic()
+    try:
+        resp = await client.get(url, headers=headers, params=params, timeout=_TEST_TIMEOUT)
+    except Exception as e:
+        return {
+            "ok": False,
+            "status": None,
+            "latency_ms": int((time.monotonic() - start) * 1000),
+            "detail": f"无法连接: {e}",
+        }
+    latency = int((time.monotonic() - start) * 1000)
+    status = resp.status_code
+    if status == 200:
+        detail = "连接成功"
+    elif status in (401, 403):
+        detail = "服务可达,但密钥无效或无权限"
+    else:
+        detail = f"服务返回 HTTP {status}"
+    return {"ok": status == 200, "status": status, "latency_ms": latency, "detail": detail}
+
+
+@router.post("/datasources/{name}/test")
+async def test_datasource(name: str):
+    """轻量连通性测试:真实请求上游一次,不触发任何入库。"""
+    src = next((s for s in _SOURCES if s["name"] == name), None)
+    if src is None:
+        raise HTTPException(404, f"未知数据源: {name}")
+
+    if name == "bzzoiro":
+        key = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
+        if not key:
+            return {"ok": False, "status": None, "latency_ms": 0, "detail": "BZZOIRO_KEY 未配置"}
+        base = (await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")).rstrip("/")
+        today = date.today().isoformat()
+        return await _probe(
+            f"{base}/events/",
+            headers={"Authorization": f"Token {key}", "Accept": "application/json"},
+            params={"date_from": today, "date_to": today},
+        )
+
+    raise HTTPException(404, f"未知数据源: {name}")
+
+
+# ── 数据源健康/最近采集状态(只读,不触发采集) ──────────────────────
+
+
+@router.get("/ingest/status")
+async def ingest_status(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """数据源采集健康概览(bzzoiro 单源;只读,不触发任何采集)。"""
+    bzzoiro_key = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
+    bzzoiro_base = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")
+
+    # 比赛覆盖
+    match_row = (
+        await db.execute(
+            select(
+                func.count().label("cnt"),
+                func.max(Match.match_date).label("latest_match_date"),
+                func.max(Match.created_at).label("latest_row_at"),
+            ).where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        )
+    ).one()
+    # 统计覆盖(精确 retrieved_at)
+    stats_row = (
+        await db.execute(
+            select(
+                func.count().label("cnt"),
+                func.max(MatchStats.retrieved_at).label("latest_retrieved"),
+            ).where(MatchStats.source == "bzzoiro")
+        )
+    ).one()
+    # 积分榜覆盖
+    standings_row = (
+        await db.execute(select(func.count()).select_from(Standing))
+    ).scalar()
+
+    bzzoiro = {
+        "name": "bzzoiro",
+        "label": "Bzzoiro",
+        "key_configured": bool(bzzoiro_key),
+        "base_url": (bzzoiro_base.rstrip("/") if bzzoiro_base else None) or settings.BZZOIRO_BASE,
+        "reachable": None,  # 不主动探测
+        "last_success_at": (stats_row.latest_retrieved or match_row.latest_row_at),
+        "last_success_at_iso": (
+            stats_row.latest_retrieved or match_row.latest_row_at
+        ).isoformat() if (stats_row.latest_retrieved or match_row.latest_row_at) else None,
+        "latest_match_date": match_row.latest_match_date.isoformat() if match_row.latest_match_date else None,
+        "recent_count": match_row.cnt or 0,
+        "stats_count": stats_row.cnt or 0,
+        "standings_count": standings_row or 0,
+        "note": "last_success_at 取 match_stats.retrieved_at(统计回填)与 matches.created_at(比赛行)的较大者",
+        "last_failure": _last_failure_log("bzzoiro"),
+    }
+
+    return {"sources": [bzzoiro]}
+
+
+@router.get("/keyring/status")
+async def keyring_status():
+    """KeyRing 运行状态:当前使用的 key、冷却状态、轮转信息(供管理后台展示)。"""
+    base = (await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")).rstrip("/")
+    raw_keys = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
+    ring = get_key_ring(base, raw_keys)
+    st = ring.stats()
+    st["base_url"] = base
+    st["cooldown_seconds"] = ring._cooldown
+    st["has_multiple"] = ring.has_multiple
+    st["active_key"] = ring.active_key
+    return st
+
+
+@router.post("/keyring/cooldown/reset")
+async def keyring_reset_cooldown():
+    """手动重置所有 key 的冷却状态(用于紧急恢复)。"""
+    base = (await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")).rstrip("/")
+    raw_keys = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
+    ring = get_key_ring(base, raw_keys)
+    ring._blocked_until.clear()
+    return {"ok": True, "message": "已重置所有 key 冷却状态", "stats": ring.stats()}
+
+
+def _last_failure_log(source: str) -> dict | None:
+    """从系统日志缓冲中查找某数据源的最近一次错误(仅作参考,非专用失败表)。"""
+    from src.core.log_buffer import get_entries
+    entries = get_entries(min_level="ERROR", keyword=source, limit=5)
+    if not entries:
+        return None
+    e = entries[0]
+    return {
+        "at": datetime.fromtimestamp(e["ts"]).isoformat(),
+        "logger": e["logger"],
+        "detail": e["message"][:200],
+        "note": "approx:来自内存日志缓冲,非专用采集失败表;进程重启后清零",
+    }

src/api/routes/admin_ingest_jobs.py

@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+"""后台管理:采集任务状态查询(只读)。
+
+GET /api/v1/admin/ingest/jobs/{job_id} — 单任务详情
+GET /api/v1/admin/ingest/jobs?limit=N — 最近任务列表(默认 20)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException, Query
+from sqlalchemy import desc, select
+
+from src.api.deps import require_admin
+from src.api.schemas import IngestJobOut
+from src.db.base import AsyncSession, get_db_read
+from src.db.models import IngestJob
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1/admin", tags=["admin"], dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
+
+
+@router.get("/ingest/jobs/{job_id}", response_model=IngestJobOut)
+async def get_ingest_job(job_id: str, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """查询单个采集任务状态。"""
+    job = await db.get(IngestJob, job_id)
+    if job is None:
+        raise HTTPException(404, f"采集任务不存在: {job_id}")
+    return _job_to_out(job)
+
+
+@router.get("/ingest/jobs", response_model=list[IngestJobOut])
+async def list_ingest_jobs(
+    limit: int = Query(20, ge=1, le=100, description="返回条数"),
+    db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read),
+):
+    """查询最近采集任务(最新在前)。"""
+    rows = (
+        await db.execute(select(IngestJob).order_by(desc(IngestJob.created_at)).limit(limit))
+    ).scalars().all()
+    return [_job_to_out(j) for j in rows]
+
+
+def _job_to_out(job: IngestJob) -> IngestJobOut:
+    return IngestJobOut(
+        id=job.id,
+        task=job.task,
+        params=job.params or {},
+        status=job.status,
+        result=job.result,
+        error=job.error,
+        created_at=job.created_at,
+        started_at=job.started_at,
+        finished_at=job.finished_at,
+    )

src/api/routes/admin_llm.py

@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
+"""后台管理:LLM 专家/终裁配置、可用模型探测、连通性测试。
+
+所有接口需管理员鉴权(require_admin)。路由前缀 /api/v1/admin。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+import time
+
+import httpx
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends
+
+from src.api.deps import require_admin
+from src.core.config import settings
+from src.core.http_client import get_client
+from src.core.runtime_config import (
+    AGENT_META,
+    SETTING_DEFS,
+    get_runtime_value,
+    get_setting_origin,
+    mask_value,
+)
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1/admin", tags=["admin"], dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
+
+
+@router.get("/llm/agents")
+async def list_llm_agents():
+    """各专家/终裁的独立 LLM 配置状态(含当前生效模型的解析结果)。"""
+    out = []
+    for agent in AGENT_META:
+        aid = agent["id"].upper()
+        pfx = f"AGENT_{aid}_"
+        fields = {}
+        for suffix in ("MODEL", "BASE_URL", "API_KEY"):
+            origin, value = await get_setting_origin(f"{pfx}{suffix}")
+            defn = SETTING_DEFS[f"{pfx}{suffix}"]
+            fields[suffix.lower()] = {
+                "configured": origin != "none",
+                "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive),
+                "origin": origin,
+            }
+        # 生效模型 = 覆盖 → 层级默认(专家/终裁 env) → 全局 LLM_MODEL
+        tier_default = (
+            settings.LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL if agent["id"] == "aggregator" else settings.LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL
+        )
+        effective_model = (
+            fields["model"]["masked"]
+            if fields["model"]["configured"]
+            else (tier_default or await get_runtime_value("LLM_MODEL"))
+        )
+        out.append(
+            {
+                "id": agent["id"],
+                "label": agent["label"],
+                "fields": fields,
+                "effective_model": effective_model,
+            }
+        )
+    return out
+
+
+@router.get("/llm/models")
+async def list_llm_models():
+    """探测当前 LLM 服务可用的模型列表(OpenAI 兼容 GET /models)。
+
+    只读探测,不产生费用;配置缺失或服务不可达时返回 ok=false 与原因。
+    """
+    base_url = (await get_runtime_value("LLM_BASE_URL")).rstrip("/")
+    api_key = await get_runtime_value("LLM_API_KEY")
+    if not base_url or not api_key:
+        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "detail": "LLM_BASE_URL 或 LLM_API_KEY 未配置"}
+
+    client = get_client()
+    start = time.monotonic()
+    try:
+        resp = await client.get(
+            f"{base_url}/models",
+            headers={"Authorization": f"Bearer {api_key}"},
+            timeout=httpx.Timeout(connect=10.0, read=20.0, write=10.0, pool=10.0),
+        )
+    except Exception as e:
+        return {
+            "ok": False,
+            "models": [],
+            "latency_ms": int((time.monotonic() - start) * 1000),
+            "detail": f"无法连接 LLM 服务: {e}",
+        }
+
+    latency = int((time.monotonic() - start) * 1000)
+    if resp.status_code in (401, 403):
+        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "latency_ms": latency, "detail": "密钥无效或无权限(HTTP 401/403)"}
+    if resp.status_code != 200:
+        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "latency_ms": latency, "detail": f"服务返回 HTTP {resp.status_code}"}
+
+    try:
+        data = resp.json()
+    except Exception:
+        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "latency_ms": latency, "detail": "响应不是合法 JSON"}
+
+    models: list[str] = []
+    items = data.get("data") if isinstance(data, dict) else None
+    if isinstance(items, list):
+        models = sorted(
+            str(m.get("id")) for m in items if isinstance(m, dict) and m.get("id")
+        )
+    if not models:
+        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "latency_ms": latency, "detail": "服务未返回模型列表"}
+    return {"ok": True, "models": models, "latency_ms": latency, "detail": f"共 {len(models)} 个可用模型"}
+
+
+@router.post("/llm/ping")
+async def llm_ping():
+    """LLM 连通性测试(不依赖比赛)。只发一次 chat 请求验证配置。"""
+    from src.llm.provider import get_default_provider
+    p = await get_default_provider()
+    resp = await p.chat(
+        system="你是测试助手。",
+        user="ping",
+        max_tokens=10,
+    )
+    if resp.error:
+        return {"ok": False, "message": resp.error}
+    return {"ok": True, "message": "LLM 连接正常", "model": p.model}

src/api/routes/admin_quality.py

@@ -0,0 +1,343 @@
+"""后台管理:管理区统计、数据完整性分析、数据质量检查。
+
+所有接口需管理员鉴权(require_admin)。路由前缀 /api/v1/admin。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends
+from sqlalchemy import func, select
+
+from src.api.deps import require_admin
+from src.db.base import AsyncSession, get_db_read
+from src.db.models import DataQualityCheck, IngestFailure, League, Match, MatchStats, Prediction, Standing
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1/admin", tags=["admin"], dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
+
+
+@router.get("/stats")
+async def admin_stats(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """管理区统计(只读):预测次数 + 比赛覆盖。轻量聚合,无 LLM 调用。"""
+    day_ago = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(days=1)
+    week_ago = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(days=7)
+    r = (
+        await db.execute(
+            select(
+                func.count().label("total"),
+                func.count().filter(Prediction.created_at >= day_ago).label("last_24h"),
+                func.count().filter(Prediction.created_at >= week_ago).label("last_7d"),
+            )
+        )
+    ).one()
+    # F3 修复: 补充真实比赛计数(非 limit=100 近似)
+    match_cnt = (await db.execute(select(func.count()).select_from(Match))).scalar() or 0
+    finished_cnt = (await db.execute(select(func.count()).where(Match.match_status == "finished"))).scalar() or 0
+    stats_cnt = (await db.execute(select(func.count()).select_from(MatchStats))).scalar() or 0
+    standings_cnt = (await db.execute(select(func.count()).select_from(Standing))).scalar() or 0
+    return {
+        "predictions": {"total": r.total, "last_24h": r.last_24h, "last_7d": r.last_7d},
+        "matches": {"total": match_cnt, "finished": finished_cnt},
+        "stats": {"total": stats_cnt},
+        "standings": {"total": standings_cnt},
+    }
+
+
+# ── 数据完整性分析(可视化数据源) ────────────────────────────────
+
+
+@router.get("/data-completeness")
+async def data_completeness(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """按联赛统计数据完整性:比赛覆盖、字段覆盖、积分榜覆盖。
+
+    前端「数据完整性」页据此渲染,回答三个问题:
+      1. 数据是否齐全(各联赛比赛/统计/积分榜量级)
+      2. 字段是否齐全(每张统计表各字段非空率)
+      3. 覆盖是否新鲜(最近一场/最近一次采集)
+    """
+    from src.data.config import BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS, LEAGUE_NAMES, LEAGUE_COUNTRIES
+
+    out_leagues: list[dict] = []
+    for code, bzz_id in BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS.items():
+        # 比赛覆盖
+        m = (
+            await db.execute(
+                select(
+                    func.count().label("total"),
+                    func.count().filter(Match.match_status == "finished").label("finished"),
+                    func.count().filter(Match.match_status == "scheduled").label("scheduled"),
+                    func.count().filter(Match.source_event_id.is_not(None)).label("with_source_id"),
+                    func.max(Match.match_date).label("latest_match"),
+                    func.min(Match.match_date).label("earliest_match"),
+                )
+                .select_from(Match)
+                .join(League, League.id == Match.league_id)
+                .where(League.code == code)
+            )
+        ).one()
+        # 统计字段覆盖(联表 matches)
+        s = (
+            await db.execute(
+                select(
+                    func.count().label("rows"),
+                    func.count(MatchStats.home_xg).label("xg"),
+                    func.count(MatchStats.home_shots).label("shots"),
+                    func.count(MatchStats.home_possession).label("possession"),
+                    func.count(MatchStats.home_corners).label("corners"),
+                    func.count(MatchStats.home_fouls).label("fouls"),
+                    func.count(MatchStats.home_big_chances).label("big_chances"),
+                    func.count(MatchStats.home_yellow_cards).label("cards"),
+                )
+                .select_from(MatchStats)
+                .join(Match, Match.id == MatchStats.match_id)
+                .join(League, League.id == Match.league_id)
+                .where(League.code == code)
+            )
+        ).one()
+        # 积分榜覆盖
+        st = (
+            await db.execute(
+                select(
+                    func.count().label("rows"),
+                    func.max(Standing.retrieved_at).label("latest_retrieved"),
+                )
+                .select_from(Standing)
+                .join(League, League.id == Standing.league_id)
+                .where(League.code == code)
+            )
+        ).one()
+
+        stats_rows = s.rows or 0
+        pct = lambda n: round(n / stats_rows * 100, 1) if stats_rows else 0.0  # noqa: E731
+        out_leagues.append(
+            {
+                "code": code,
+                "name": LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code),
+                "country": LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code),
+                "matches": {
+                    "total": m.total or 0,
+                    "finished": m.finished or 0,
+                    "scheduled": m.scheduled or 0,
+                    "with_source_id": m.with_source_id or 0,
+                    "earliest_match": m.earliest_match.isoformat() if m.earliest_match else None,
+                    "latest_match": m.latest_match.isoformat() if m.latest_match else None,
+                },
+                "stats": {
+                    "rows": stats_rows,
+                    "fields": {
+                        "xg": {"count": s.xg or 0, "pct": pct(s.xg or 0)},
+                        "shots": {"count": s.shots or 0, "pct": pct(s.shots or 0)},
+                        "possession": {"count": s.possession or 0, "pct": pct(s.possession or 0)},
+                        "corners": {"count": s.corners or 0, "pct": pct(s.corners or 0)},
+                        "fouls": {"count": s.fouls or 0, "pct": pct(s.fouls or 0)},
+                        "big_chances": {"count": s.big_chances or 0, "pct": pct(s.big_chances or 0)},
+                        "cards": {"count": s.cards or 0, "pct": pct(s.cards or 0)},
+                    },
+                },
+                "standings": {
+                    "rows": st.rows or 0,
+                    "latest_retrieved": st.latest_retrieved.isoformat() if st.latest_retrieved else None,
+                },
+            }
+        )
+
+    # 整体健康信号
+    total_finished = sum(l["matches"]["finished"] for l in out_leagues)
+    total_stats = sum(l["stats"]["rows"] for l in out_leagues)
+    stats_coverage = round(total_stats / total_finished * 100, 1) if total_finished else 0.0
+    issues: list[str] = []
+    for l in out_leagues:
+        if l["matches"]["finished"] == 0:
+            issues.append(f"{l['name']}: 无已完赛比赛,请先运行「比赛数据」采集")
+        elif l["stats"]["rows"] == 0:
+            issues.append(f"{l['name']}: 已完赛 {l['matches']['finished']} 场但无统计回填,请运行「统计回填」采集")
+        elif stats_coverage < 80:
+            issues.append(f"{l['name']}: 统计覆盖率仅 {stats_coverage}%,建议增量回填")
+        if l["standings"]["rows"] == 0:
+            issues.append(f"{l['name']}: 无积分榜数据,请运行「积分榜」采集")
+    if not issues:
+        issues.append("各联赛数据完整度良好")
+
+    return {
+        "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
+        "leagues": out_leagues,
+        "totals": {
+            "finished_matches": total_finished,
+            "stats_rows": total_stats,
+            "stats_coverage_pct": stats_coverage,
+        },
+        "issues": issues,
+    }
+
+
+# ── 数据质量检查 API ────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+
+@router.get("/data-quality")
+async def data_quality_checks(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """数据质量检查结果(只读)。"""
+    # 最近的失败记录
+    failures = (
+        await db.execute(
+            select(IngestFailure)
+            .where(IngestFailure.status.in_(["pending", "retrying"]))
+            .order_by(IngestFailure.created_at.desc())
+            .limit(20)
+        )
+    ).scalars().all()
+
+    # 最近的质量检查
+    checks = (
+        await db.execute(
+            select(DataQualityCheck)
+            .order_by(DataQualityCheck.checked_at.desc())
+            .limit(20)
+        )
+    ).scalars().all()
+
+    return {
+        "failures": [
+            {
+                "id": f.id,
+                "source": f.source_system,
+                "entity_type": f.entity_type,
+                "source_record_id": f.source_record_id,
+                "error_type": f.error_type,
+                "error_detail": f.error_detail,
+                "retry_count": f.retry_count,
+                "status": f.status,
+                "created_at": f.created_at.isoformat() if f.created_at else None,
+            }
+            for f in failures
+        ],
+        "checks": [
+            {
+                "id": c.id,
+                "check_name": c.check_name,
+                "entity_type": c.entity_type,
+                "passed": c.passed,
+                "severity": c.severity,
+                "detail": c.detail,
+                "checked_at": c.checked_at.isoformat() if c.checked_at else None,
+            }
+            for c in checks
+        ],
+    }
+
+
+@router.post("/data-quality/run")
+async def run_data_quality_check(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """手动触发一次数据质量检查。"""
+    checks = []
+
+    # 检查1: 已完赛但无统计的比赛
+    finished_no_stats = (
+        await db.execute(
+            select(func.count())
+            .select_from(Match)
+            .outerjoin(MatchStats, Match.id == MatchStats.match_id)
+            .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+            .where(MatchStats.id.is_(None))
+        )
+    ).scalar() or 0
+
+    checks.append(DataQualityCheck(
+        check_name="finished_without_stats",
+        entity_type="match",
+        actual_value=float(finished_no_stats),
+        passed=finished_no_stats == 0,
+        severity="warning" if finished_no_stats > 0 else "info",
+        detail={"message": f"{finished_no_stats} 场已完赛比赛缺少统计数据"},
+    ))
+
+    # 检查2: 积分榜缺失的联赛
+    leagues_without_standings = (
+        await db.execute(
+            select(func.count())
+            .select_from(League)
+            .outerjoin(Standing, League.id == Standing.league_id)
+            .where(Standing.id.is_(None))
+        )
+    ).scalar() or 0
+
+    checks.append(DataQualityCheck(
+        check_name="league_without_standings",
+        entity_type="league",
+        actual_value=float(leagues_without_standings),
+        passed=leagues_without_standings == 0,
+        severity="warning" if leagues_without_standings > 0 else "info",
+        detail={"message": f"{leagues_without_standings} 个联赛缺少积分榜"},
+    ))
+
+    for c in checks:
+        db.add(c)
+    await db.commit()
+
+    return {"ok": True, "checks": [{"name": c.check_name, "passed": c.passed} for c in checks]}
+
+
+# ── 近似重名候选(只读,启发式,不做自动合并) ──────────────────────
+
+
+@router.get("/team-name-duplicates")
+async def team_name_duplicates(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """只读列出近似重名候选(大小写变体/子串包含/前缀碰撞)。
+
+    启发式规则(命中任一即列为候选):
+      - 大小写变体: lower(name) 相同但 name 不同
+      - 子串包含: A 是 B 的子串且 len(A) ≥ 5
+      - 前缀碰撞: 前 8 字符相同(忽略大小写)
+
+    仅作排查参考,合并需走人工 SQL(见 docs/05-data.md)。
+    """
+    teams = (await db.execute(select(Team.id, Team.name))).all()
+    by_lower: dict[str, list[dict]] = {}
+    for t in teams:
+        key = (t.name or "").lower()
+        by_lower.setdefault(key, []).append({"id": t.id, "name": t.name})
+
+    groups: list[dict] = []
+
+    # 规则1: 大小写变体(lower 相同但原名不同)
+    for key, members in by_lower.items():
+        if len(members) > 1:
+            groups.append({
+                "rule": "case_variant",
+                "key": key,
+                "members": members,
+            })
+
+    # 规则2 & 3: 子串包含 / 前缀碰撞(仅在 lower 名不同的组间比较)
+    distinct = [m for members in by_lower.values() for m in members]
+    seen_pairs: set[tuple[int, int]] = set()
+    for i, a in enumerate(distinct):
+        na = (a["name"] or "").lower()
+        for b in distinct[i + 1:]:
+            nb = (b["name"] or "").lower()
+            if na == nb:
+                continue  # 已被规则1覆盖
+            pair = (min(a["id"], b["id"]), max(a["id"], b["id"]))
+            if pair in seen_pairs:
+                continue
+            hit = None
+            if len(na) >= 5 and na in nb:
+                hit = "substring"
+            elif len(nb) >= 5 and nb in na:
+                hit = "substring"
+            elif len(na) >= 8 and len(nb) >= 8 and na[:8] == nb[:8]:
+                hit = "prefix"
+            if hit:
+                seen_pairs.add(pair)
+                groups.append({
+                    "rule": hit,
+                    "members": [a, b],
+                })
+
+    return {
+        "count": len(groups),
+        "hint": "命中任一启发式仅表示'可疑',合并前请人工确认是否同一球队",
+        "groups": groups,
+    }

src/api/routes/admin_settings.py

@@ -1,668 +1,29 @@
-"""后台管理路由:数据源配置的查看、修改与连通性测试。
+"""后台管理路由聚合入口:按职责拆分为四个子模块,统一挂载。
 
-所有接口需管理员鉴权(require_admin)。配置项白名单见
-src/core/runtime_config.py SETTING_DEFS,之外的 key 一律拒绝。
+所有路由仍挂在 /api/v1/admin,且均带 dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)]
+(鉴权由各子路由器声明,行为与拆分前完全一致)。
+
+子模块:
+  - admin_datasources  数据源列表/连通性测试、KeyRing、采集健康概览
+  - admin_config        settings CRUD、运行日志
+  - admin_llm           LLM agents/models/ping
+  - admin_quality       stats、data-completeness、data-quality
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
-import logging
-import time
-from datetime import date, datetime, timedelta, timezone
-
-from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException, Query
-from pydantic import BaseModel
-from sqlalchemy import func, select
-import httpx
-
-from src.api.deps import require_admin
-from src.core.config import settings
-from src.core.http_client import get_client
-from src.core.log_buffer import get_entries
-from src.core.runtime_config import (
-    AGENT_META,
-    SETTING_DEFS,
-    clear_runtime_value,
-    get_runtime_value,
-    get_setting_origin,
-    mask_value,
-    set_runtime_value,
-)
-from src.db.base import AsyncSession, get_db_read
-from src.db.models import League, Match, MatchStats, Standing
-from src.data.key_ring import get_key_ring, parse_keys
-
-logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
-
-router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1/admin", tags=["admin"], dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
-
-# ── 数据源元数据(bzzoiro 单一数据源) ────────────────────────────
-
-_SOURCES: list[dict] = [
-    {
-        "name": "bzzoiro",
-        "label": "Bzzoiro",
-        "description": "唯一数据源:赛程比分 + 积分榜 + 比赛详细统计(xG/射门/控球等)",
-        "setting_keys": ["BZZOIRO_KEY", "BZZOIRO_BASE"],
-    },
-]
-
-
-class SettingUpdateIn(BaseModel):
-    value: str
-
-
-async def _last_ingestion(db: AsyncSession, source: str) -> datetime | None:
-    """源最近一次采集时间(取自数据血缘字段,无记录返回 None)。"""
-    return (
-        await db.execute(
-            select(func.max(MatchStats.retrieved_at)).where(MatchStats.source == source)
-        )
-    ).scalar()
-
-
-@router.get("/datasources")
-async def list_datasources(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
-    """数据源列表:各配置项的脱敏值、来源(db/env/none)与最近采集时间。"""
-    result = []
-    for src in _SOURCES:
-        settings_out = []
-        for key in src["setting_keys"]:
-            origin, value = await get_setting_origin(key)
-            defn = SETTING_DEFS[key]
-            settings_out.append(
-                {
-                    "key": key,
-                    "label": defn.label,
-                    "description": defn.description,
-                    "sensitive": defn.sensitive,
-                    "configured": origin != "none",
-                    "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive),
-                    "origin": origin,
-                }
-            )
-        key_configured = all(s["configured"] for s in settings_out) if settings_out else True
-        last = await _last_ingestion(db, src["name"])
-        result.append(
-            {
-                "name": src["name"],
-                "label": src["label"],
-                "description": src["description"],
-                "key_configured": key_configured,
-                "last_ingestion": last.isoformat() if last else None,
-                "settings": settings_out,
-            }
-        )
-    return result
-
-
-@router.get("/settings")
-async def list_settings():
-    """全部可配置项(脱敏),供后台各配置页渲染。"""
-    out = []
-    for key, defn in SETTING_DEFS.items():
-        origin, value = await get_setting_origin(key)
-        out.append(
-            {
-                "key": key,
-                "label": defn.label,
-                "description": defn.description,
-                "sensitive": defn.sensitive,
-                "configured": origin != "none",
-                "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive),
-                "origin": origin,
-            }
-        )
-    return out
-
-
-# ── LLM 可用模型检测 ────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-
-@router.get("/logs")
-async def read_logs(
-    level: str | None = Query(None, description="最低级别: DEBUG/INFO/WARNING/ERROR"),
-    keyword: str | None = Query(None, description="消息或 logger 关键字"),
-    limit: int = Query(200, ge=1, le=1000),
-):
-    """查询应用运行日志(内存环形缓冲,最新在前;进程重启后清零)。"""
-    entries = get_entries(level, keyword, limit)
-    return {"entries": entries, "count": len(entries)}
-
-
-@router.get("/llm/agents")
-async def list_llm_agents():
-    """各专家/终裁的独立 LLM 配置状态(含当前生效模型的解析结果)。"""
-    out = []
-    for agent in AGENT_META:
-        aid = agent["id"].upper()
-        pfx = f"AGENT_{aid}_"
-        fields = {}
-        for suffix in ("MODEL", "BASE_URL", "API_KEY"):
-            origin, value = await get_setting_origin(f"{pfx}{suffix}")
-            defn = SETTING_DEFS[f"{pfx}{suffix}"]
-            fields[suffix.lower()] = {
-                "configured": origin != "none",
-                "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive),
-                "origin": origin,
-            }
-        # 生效模型 = 覆盖 → 层级默认(专家/终裁 env) → 全局 LLM_MODEL
-        tier_default = (
-            settings.LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL if agent["id"] == "aggregator" else settings.LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL
-        )
-        effective_model = (
-            fields["model"]["masked"]
-            if fields["model"]["configured"]
-            else (tier_default or await get_runtime_value("LLM_MODEL"))
-        )
-        out.append(
-            {
-                "id": agent["id"],
-                "label": agent["label"],
-                "fields": fields,
-                "effective_model": effective_model,
-            }
-        )
-    return out
-
-
-@router.get("/llm/models")
-async def list_llm_models():
-    """探测当前 LLM 服务可用的模型列表(OpenAI 兼容 GET /models)。
-
-    只读探测,不产生费用;配置缺失或服务不可达时返回 ok=false 与原因。
-    """
-    base_url = (await get_runtime_value("LLM_BASE_URL")).rstrip("/")
-    api_key = await get_runtime_value("LLM_API_KEY")
-    if not base_url or not api_key:
-        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "detail": "LLM_BASE_URL 或 LLM_API_KEY 未配置"}
-
-    client = get_client()
-    start = time.monotonic()
-    try:
-        resp = await client.get(
-            f"{base_url}/models",
-            headers={"Authorization": f"Bearer {api_key}"},
-            timeout=httpx.Timeout(connect=10.0, read=20.0, write=10.0, pool=10.0),
-        )
-    except Exception as e:
-        return {
-            "ok": False,
-            "models": [],
-            "latency_ms": int((time.monotonic() - start) * 1000),
-            "detail": f"无法连接 LLM 服务: {e}",
-        }
-
-    latency = int((time.monotonic() - start) * 1000)
-    if resp.status_code in (401, 403):
-        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "latency_ms": latency, "detail": "密钥无效或无权限(HTTP 401/403)"}
-    if resp.status_code != 200:
-        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "latency_ms": latency, "detail": f"服务返回 HTTP {resp.status_code}"}
-
-    try:
-        data = resp.json()
-    except Exception:
-        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "latency_ms": latency, "detail": "响应不是合法 JSON"}
-
-    models: list[str] = []
-    items = data.get("data") if isinstance(data, dict) else None
-    if isinstance(items, list):
-        models = sorted(
-            str(m.get("id")) for m in items if isinstance(m, dict) and m.get("id")
-        )
-    if not models:
-        return {"ok": False, "models": [], "latency_ms": latency, "detail": "服务未返回模型列表"}
-    return {"ok": True, "models": models, "latency_ms": latency, "detail": f"共 {len(models)} 个可用模型"}
-
-
-@router.put("/settings/{key}")
-async def update_setting(key: str, body: SettingUpdateIn):
-    """更新配置项(写入 app_settings 覆盖 .env)。传空值请改用 DELETE。"""
-    if key not in SETTING_DEFS:
-        raise HTTPException(404, f"不支持的配置项: {key}")
-    value = body.value.strip()
-    if not value:
-        raise HTTPException(400, "值不能为空;如需回落 .env 请调用清除接口")
-    await set_runtime_value(key, value)
-    defn = SETTING_DEFS[key]
-    return {"key": key, "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive), "origin": "db"}
-
-
-@router.delete("/settings/{key}")
-async def clear_setting(key: str):
-    """清除 DB 覆盖值,回落 .env 默认。"""
-    if key not in SETTING_DEFS:
-        raise HTTPException(404, f"不支持的配置项: {key}")
-    await clear_runtime_value(key)
-    origin, value = await get_setting_origin(key)
-    defn = SETTING_DEFS[key]
-    return {
-        "key": key,
-        "masked": mask_value(value, defn.sensitive),
-        "origin": origin,
-    }
-
-
-# ── 连通性测试 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-_TEST_TIMEOUT = 15
-
-
-async def _probe(url: str, headers: dict | None = None, params: dict | None = None) -> dict:
-    """单次 HTTP 探测,返回 (ok, status, latency_ms, detail)。不重试。"""
-    client = get_client()
-    start = time.monotonic()
-    try:
-        resp = await client.get(url, headers=headers, params=params, timeout=_TEST_TIMEOUT)
-    except Exception as e:
-        return {
-            "ok": False,
-            "status": None,
-            "latency_ms": int((time.monotonic() - start) * 1000),
-            "detail": f"无法连接: {e}",
-        }
-    latency = int((time.monotonic() - start) * 1000)
-    status = resp.status_code
-    if status == 200:
-        detail = "连接成功"
-    elif status in (401, 403):
-        detail = "服务可达,但密钥无效或无权限"
-    else:
-        detail = f"服务返回 HTTP {status}"
-    return {"ok": status == 200, "status": status, "latency_ms": latency, "detail": detail}
-
-
-@router.post("/datasources/{name}/test")
-async def test_datasource(name: str):
-    """轻量连通性测试:真实请求上游一次,不触发任何入库。"""
-    src = next((s for s in _SOURCES if s["name"] == name), None)
-    if src is None:
-        raise HTTPException(404, f"未知数据源: {name}")
-
-    if name == "bzzoiro":
-        key = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
-        if not key:
-            return {"ok": False, "status": None, "latency_ms": 0, "detail": "BZZOIRO_KEY 未配置"}
-        base = (await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")).rstrip("/")
-        today = date.today().isoformat()
-        return await _probe(
-            f"{base}/events/",
-            headers={"Authorization": f"Token {key}", "Accept": "application/json"},
-            params={"date_from": today, "date_to": today},
-        )
-
-    raise HTTPException(404, f"未知数据源: {name}")
-
-
-@router.post("/llm/ping")
-async def llm_ping():
-    """LLM 连通性测试(不依赖比赛)。只发一次 chat 请求验证配置。"""
-    from src.llm.provider import get_default_provider
-    p = await get_default_provider()
-    resp = await p.chat(
-        system="你是测试助手。",
-        user="ping",
-        max_tokens=10,
-    )
-    if resp.error:
-        return {"ok": False, "message": resp.error}
-    return {"ok": True, "message": "LLM 连接正常", "model": p.model}
-
-
-# ── 数据源健康/最近采集状态(只读,不触发采集) ──────────────────────
-
-
-@router.get("/ingest/status")
-async def ingest_status(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
-    """数据源采集健康概览(bzzoiro 单源;只读,不触发任何采集)。"""
-    bzzoiro_key = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
-    bzzoiro_base = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")
-
-    # 比赛覆盖
-    match_row = (
-        await db.execute(
-            select(
-                func.count().label("cnt"),
-                func.max(Match.match_date).label("latest_match_date"),
-                func.max(Match.created_at).label("latest_row_at"),
-            ).where(Match.match_status == "finished")
-        )
-    ).one()
-    # 统计覆盖(精确 retrieved_at)
-    stats_row = (
-        await db.execute(
-            select(
-                func.count().label("cnt"),
-                func.max(MatchStats.retrieved_at).label("latest_retrieved"),
-            ).where(MatchStats.source == "bzzoiro")
-        )
-    ).one()
-    # 积分榜覆盖
-    standings_row = (
-        await db.execute(select(func.count()).select_from(Standing))
-    ).scalar()
-
-    bzzoiro = {
-        "name": "bzzoiro",
-        "label": "Bzzoiro",
-        "key_configured": bool(bzzoiro_key),
-        "base_url": (bzzoiro_base.rstrip("/") if bzzoiro_base else None) or settings.BZZOIRO_BASE,
-        "reachable": None,  # 不主动探测
-        "last_success_at": (stats_row.latest_retrieved or match_row.latest_row_at),
-        "last_success_at_iso": (
-            stats_row.latest_retrieved or match_row.latest_row_at
-        ).isoformat() if (stats_row.latest_retrieved or match_row.latest_row_at) else None,
-        "latest_match_date": match_row.latest_match_date.isoformat() if match_row.latest_match_date else None,
-        "recent_count": match_row.cnt or 0,
-        "stats_count": stats_row.cnt or 0,
-        "standings_count": standings_row or 0,
-        "note": "last_success_at 取 match_stats.retrieved_at(统计回填)与 matches.created_at(比赛行)的较大者",
-        "last_failure": _last_failure_log("bzzoiro"),
-    }
-
-    return {"sources": [bzzoiro]}
-
-
-@router.get("/keyring/status")
-async def keyring_status():
-    """KeyRing 运行状态:当前使用的 key、冷却状态、轮转信息(供管理后台展示)。"""
-    base = (await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")).rstrip("/")
-    raw_keys = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
-    ring = get_key_ring(base, raw_keys)
-    st = ring.stats()
-    st["base_url"] = base
-    st["cooldown_seconds"] = ring._cooldown
-    st["has_multiple"] = ring.has_multiple
-    st["active_key"] = ring.active_key
-    return st
-
-
-@router.post("/keyring/cooldown/reset")
-async def keyring_reset_cooldown():
-    """手动重置所有 key 的冷却状态(用于紧急恢复)。"""
-    base = (await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")).rstrip("/")
-    raw_keys = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
-    ring = get_key_ring(base, raw_keys)
-    ring._blocked_until.clear()
-    return {"ok": True, "message": "已重置所有 key 冷却状态", "stats": ring.stats()}
-
-
-def _last_failure_log(source: str) -> dict | None:
-    """从系统日志缓冲中查找某数据源的最近一次错误(仅作参考,非专用失败表)。"""
-    entries = get_entries(min_level="ERROR", keyword=source, limit=5)
-    if not entries:
-        return None
-    e = entries[0]
-    return {
-        "at": datetime.fromtimestamp(e["ts"]).isoformat(),
-        "logger": e["logger"],
-        "detail": e["message"][:200],
-        "note": "approx:来自内存日志缓冲,非专用采集失败表;进程重启后清零",
-    }
-
-
-@router.get("/stats")
-async def admin_stats(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
-    """管理区统计(只读):预测次数 + 比赛覆盖。轻量聚合,无 LLM 调用。"""
-    from sqlalchemy import func, text
-    from src.db.models import Prediction, Match, MatchStats, Standing
-    day_ago = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(days=1)
-    week_ago = datetime.now(timezone.utc) - timedelta(days=7)
-    r = (
-        await db.execute(
-            select(
-                func.count().label("total"),
-                func.count().filter(Prediction.created_at >= day_ago).label("last_24h"),
-                func.count().filter(Prediction.created_at >= week_ago).label("last_7d"),
-            )
-        )
-    ).one()
-    # F3 修复: 补充真实比赛计数(非 limit=100 近似)
-    match_cnt = (await db.execute(select(func.count()).select_from(Match))).scalar() or 0
-    finished_cnt = (await db.execute(select(func.count()).where(Match.match_status == "finished"))).scalar() or 0
-    stats_cnt = (await db.execute(select(func.count()).select_from(MatchStats))).scalar() or 0
-    standings_cnt = (await db.execute(select(func.count()).select_from(Standing))).scalar() or 0
-    return {
-        "predictions": {"total": r.total, "last_24h": r.last_24h, "last_7d": r.last_7d},
-        "matches": {"total": match_cnt, "finished": finished_cnt},
-        "stats": {"total": stats_cnt},
-        "standings": {"total": standings_cnt},
-    }
-
-
-# ── 数据完整性分析(可视化数据源) ────────────────────────────────
-
-
-@router.get("/data-completeness")
-async def data_completeness(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
-    """按联赛统计数据完整性:比赛覆盖、字段覆盖、积分榜覆盖。
-
-    前端「数据完整性」页据此渲染,回答三个问题:
-      1. 数据是否齐全(各联赛比赛/统计/积分榜量级)
-      2. 字段是否齐全(每张统计表各字段非空率)
-      3. 覆盖是否新鲜(最近一场/最近一次采集)
-    """
-    from src.data.config import BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS, LEAGUE_NAMES, LEAGUE_COUNTRIES
-
-    out_leagues: list[dict] = []
-    for code, bzz_id in BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS.items():
-        # 比赛覆盖
-        m = (
-            await db.execute(
-                select(
-                    func.count().label("total"),
-                    func.count().filter(Match.match_status == "finished").label("finished"),
-                    func.count().filter(Match.match_status == "scheduled").label("scheduled"),
-                    func.count().filter(Match.source_event_id.is_not(None)).label("with_source_id"),
-                    func.max(Match.match_date).label("latest_match"),
-                    func.min(Match.match_date).label("earliest_match"),
-                )
-                .select_from(Match)
-                .join(League, League.id == Match.league_id)
-                .where(League.code == code)
-            )
-        ).one()
-        # 统计字段覆盖(联表 matches)
-        s = (
-            await db.execute(
-                select(
-                    func.count().label("rows"),
-                    func.count(MatchStats.home_xg).label("xg"),
-                    func.count(MatchStats.home_shots).label("shots"),
-                    func.count(MatchStats.home_possession).label("possession"),
-                    func.count(MatchStats.home_corners).label("corners"),
-                    func.count(MatchStats.home_fouls).label("fouls"),
-                    func.count(MatchStats.home_big_chances).label("big_chances"),
-                    func.count(MatchStats.home_yellow_cards).label("cards"),
-                )
-                .select_from(MatchStats)
-                .join(Match, Match.id == MatchStats.match_id)
-                .join(League, League.id == Match.league_id)
-                .where(League.code == code)
-            )
-        ).one()
-        # 积分榜覆盖
-        st = (
-            await db.execute(
-                select(
-                    func.count().label("rows"),
-                    func.max(Standing.retrieved_at).label("latest_retrieved"),
-                )
-                .select_from(Standing)
-                .join(League, League.id == Standing.league_id)
-                .where(League.code == code)
-            )
-        ).one()
-
-        stats_rows = s.rows or 0
-        pct = lambda n: round(n / stats_rows * 100, 1) if stats_rows else 0.0  # noqa: E731
-        out_leagues.append(
-            {
-                "code": code,
-                "name": LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code),
-                "country": LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code),
-                "matches": {
-                    "total": m.total or 0,
-                    "finished": m.finished or 0,
-                    "scheduled": m.scheduled or 0,
-                    "with_source_id": m.with_source_id or 0,
-                    "earliest_match": m.earliest_match.isoformat() if m.earliest_match else None,
-                    "latest_match": m.latest_match.isoformat() if m.latest_match else None,
-                },
-                "stats": {
-                    "rows": stats_rows,
-                    "fields": {
-                        "xg": {"count": s.xg or 0, "pct": pct(s.xg or 0)},
-                        "shots": {"count": s.shots or 0, "pct": pct(s.shots or 0)},
-                        "possession": {"count": s.possession or 0, "pct": pct(s.possession or 0)},
-                        "corners": {"count": s.corners or 0, "pct": pct(s.corners or 0)},
-                        "fouls": {"count": s.fouls or 0, "pct": pct(s.fouls or 0)},
-                        "big_chances": {"count": s.big_chances or 0, "pct": pct(s.big_chances or 0)},
-                        "cards": {"count": s.cards or 0, "pct": pct(s.cards or 0)},
-                    },
-                },
-                "standings": {
-                    "rows": st.rows or 0,
-                    "latest_retrieved": st.latest_retrieved.isoformat() if st.latest_retrieved else None,
-                },
-            }
-        )
-
-    # 整体健康信号
-    total_finished = sum(l["matches"]["finished"] for l in out_leagues)
-    total_stats = sum(l["stats"]["rows"] for l in out_leagues)
-    stats_coverage = round(total_stats / total_finished * 100, 1) if total_finished else 0.0
-    issues: list[str] = []
-    for l in out_leagues:
-        if l["matches"]["finished"] == 0:
-            issues.append(f"{l['name']}: 无已完赛比赛,请先运行「比赛数据」采集")
-        elif l["stats"]["rows"] == 0:
-            issues.append(f"{l['name']}: 已完赛 {l['matches']['finished']} 场但无统计回填,请运行「统计回填」采集")
-        elif stats_coverage < 80:
-            issues.append(f"{l['name']}: 统计覆盖率仅 {stats_coverage}%,建议增量回填")
-        if l["standings"]["rows"] == 0:
-            issues.append(f"{l['name']}: 无积分榜数据,请运行「积分榜」采集")
-    if not issues:
-        issues.append("各联赛数据完整度良好")
-
-    return {
-        "generated_at": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
-        "leagues": out_leagues,
-        "totals": {
-            "finished_matches": total_finished,
-            "stats_rows": total_stats,
-            "stats_coverage_pct": stats_coverage,
-        },
-        "issues": issues,
-    }
-
-
-# ── 数据质量检查 API ────────────────────────────────────────────
-
-
-@router.get("/data-quality")
-async def data_quality_checks(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
-    """数据质量检查结果(只读)。"""
-    from src.db.models import IngestFailure, DataQualityCheck
-    from sqlalchemy import func
-
-    # 最近的失败记录
-    failures = (
-        await db.execute(
-            select(IngestFailure)
-            .where(IngestFailure.status.in_(["pending", "retrying"]))
-            .order_by(IngestFailure.created_at.desc())
-            .limit(20)
-        )
-    ).scalars().all()
-
-    # 最近的质量检查
-    checks = (
-        await db.execute(
-            select(DataQualityCheck)
-            .order_by(DataQualityCheck.checked_at.desc())
-            .limit(20)
-        )
-    ).scalars().all()
-
-    return {
-        "failures": [
-            {
-                "id": f.id,
-                "source": f.source_system,
-                "entity_type": f.entity_type,
-                "source_record_id": f.source_record_id,
-                "error_type": f.error_type,
-                "error_detail": f.error_detail,
-                "retry_count": f.retry_count,
-                "status": f.status,
-                "created_at": f.created_at.isoformat() if f.created_at else None,
-            }
-            for f in failures
-        ],
-        "checks": [
-            {
-                "id": c.id,
-                "check_name": c.check_name,
-                "entity_type": c.entity_type,
-                "passed": c.passed,
-                "severity": c.severity,
-                "detail": c.detail,
-                "checked_at": c.checked_at.isoformat() if c.checked_at else None,
-            }
-            for c in checks
-        ],
-    }
-
-
-@router.post("/data-quality/run")
-async def run_data_quality_check(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
-    """手动触发一次数据质量检查。"""
-    from src.db.models import DataQualityCheck, Match, MatchStats, Standing, League
-    from sqlalchemy import func
-
-    checks = []
-
-    # 检查1: 已完赛但无统计的比赛
-    finished_no_stats = (
-        await db.execute(
-            select(func.count())
-            .select_from(Match)
-            .outerjoin(MatchStats, Match.id == MatchStats.match_id)
-            .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
-            .where(MatchStats.id.is_(None))
-        )
-    ).scalar() or 0
-
-    checks.append(DataQualityCheck(
-        check_name="finished_without_stats",
-        entity_type="match",
-        actual_value=float(finished_no_stats),
-        passed=finished_no_stats == 0,
-        severity="warning" if finished_no_stats > 0 else "info",
-        detail={"message": f"{finished_no_stats} 场已完赛比赛缺少统计数据"},
-    ))
-
-    # 检查2: 积分榜缺失的联赛
-    leagues_without_standings = (
-        await db.execute(
-            select(func.count())
-            .select_from(League)
-            .outerjoin(Standing, League.id == Standing.league_id)
-            .where(Standing.id.is_(None))
-        )
-    ).scalar() or 0
-
-    checks.append(DataQualityCheck(
-        check_name="league_without_standings",
-        entity_type="league",
-        actual_value=float(leagues_without_standings),
-        passed=leagues_without_standings == 0,
-        severity="warning" if leagues_without_standings > 0 else "info",
-        detail={"message": f"{leagues_without_standings} 个联赛缺少积分榜"},
-    ))
-
-    for c in checks:
-        db.add(c)
-    await db.commit()
-
-    return {"ok": True, "checks": [{"name": c.check_name, "passed": c.passed} for c in checks]}
+from fastapi import APIRouter
+
+from src.api.routes.admin_config import router as admin_config_router
+from src.api.routes.admin_datasources import router as admin_datasources_router
+from src.api.routes.admin_ingest_jobs import router as admin_ingest_jobs_router
+from src.api.routes.admin_llm import router as admin_llm_router
+from src.api.routes.admin_quality import router as admin_quality_router
+from src.api.routes.admin_teams import router as admin_teams_router
+
+router = APIRouter()
+router.include_router(admin_datasources_router)
+router.include_router(admin_config_router)
+router.include_router(admin_ingest_jobs_router)
+router.include_router(admin_llm_router)
+router.include_router(admin_quality_router)
+router.include_router(admin_teams_router)

src/api/routes/admin_teams.py

@@ -0,0 +1,60 @@
+"""后台管理:球队别名管理(只读列表 + 添加别名)。
+
+归一名(teams.name)是球队唯一键;别名(team_aliases)是同一球队的不同写法
+(大小写/译名/缩写)到归一后 teams.id 的映射。入库时 normalize(name) 依次查
+teams.name 与 team_aliases,命中即复用,避免重复 Team。
+
+不自动合并历史重复队;需显式添加别名(或先 SQL/再经由此接口)。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+
+from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
+from sqlalchemy import desc, select
+
+from src.api.deps import require_admin
+from src.api.schemas import TeamAliasIn, TeamAliasOut
+from src.db.base import AsyncSession, get_db_read
+from src.db.models import Team, TeamAlias
+from src.db.repositories import TeamRepository
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1/admin", tags=["admin"], dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
+
+
+@router.get("/teams/aliases", response_model=list[TeamAliasOut])
+async def list_team_aliases(db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """列出所有球队别名(最新在前)。"""
+    rows = (await db.execute(select(TeamAlias).order_by(desc(TeamAlias.created_at)).limit(200))).scalars().all()
+    return [
+        TeamAliasOut(
+            alias_normalized=r.alias_normalized,
+            team_id=r.team_id,
+            original_alias=r.original_alias,
+        )
+        for r in rows
+    ]
+
+
+@router.post("/teams/aliases", response_model=TeamAliasOut, status_code=201)
+async def add_team_alias(req: TeamAliasIn, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
+    """为已有 Team 添加别名(幂等:重复添加会更新指向)。
+
+    不自动合并历史重复队。若需合并 A→B:先为 A 的归一名添加别名指向 B,
+    再人工确认 A 是否仍有独立引用。
+    """
+    # 校验目标 Team 存在
+    team = await db.get(Team, req.team_id)
+    if team is None:
+        raise HTTPException(404, f"目标 Team 不存在: id={req.team_id}")
+
+    repo = TeamRepository(db)
+    row = await repo.add_alias(req.alias, req.team_id)
+    logger.info("添加 Team 别名: %s -> team_id=%s", req.alias, req.team_id)
+    return TeamAliasOut(
+        alias_normalized=row.alias_normalized,
+        team_id=row.team_id,
+        original_alias=row.original_alias,
+    )

src/api/routes/ingest.py

@@ -10,13 +10,16 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 
 import asyncio
 import logging
+import uuid
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
 
 from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException
 
 from src.api.deps import require_admin
-from src.api.schemas import IngestBzzoiroRequest
+from src.api.schemas import IngestBzzoiroRequest, IngestBzzoiroResponse
 from src.data.config import BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS
-from src.data.bzzoiro import ingest_bzzoiro_event_stats, ingest_bzzoiro_standings
+from src.data.bzzoiro_standings import ingest_bzzoiro_standings
+from src.data.bzzoiro_stats import ingest_bzzoiro_event_stats
 from src.data.sources import get_source
 from src.db.unit_of_work import get_uow
 
@@ -30,6 +33,19 @@ _background_tasks: set[asyncio.Task] = set()
 VALID_TASKS = {"events", "standings", "stats", "all"}
 
 
+def _accumulate_ingest_result(merged: dict, code: str, r: dict) -> None:
+    """P1-A: 累加单联赛采集结果。联赛级计数读 r["leagues"][code],顶层读 total_*。"""
+    merged["total_inserted"] += r.get("total_inserted", 0)
+    merged["total_updated"] += r.get("total_updated", 0)
+    merged["errors"].extend(r.get("errors", []))
+    # 联赛级计数必须来自 leagues[code],而非顶层 r.get("inserted")
+    league_r = r.get("leagues", {}).get(code, {})
+    acc = merged["leagues"].setdefault(code, {"inserted": 0, "updated": 0, "errors": []})
+    acc["inserted"] += league_r.get("inserted", 0)
+    acc["updated"] += league_r.get("updated", 0)
+    acc["errors"].extend(r.get("errors", []))
+
+
 def _spawn(coro) -> None:
     """启动后台采集任务;异常已在任务内记录到系统日志。"""
     task = asyncio.create_task(coro)
@@ -37,22 +53,58 @@ def _spawn(coro) -> None:
     task.add_done_callback(_background_tasks.discard)
 
 
-@router.post("/ingest/bzzoiro", dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
+@router.post("/ingest/bzzoiro", response_model=IngestBzzoiroResponse, dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
 async def ingest_bzzoiro_route(req: IngestBzzoiroRequest):
-    """触发 bzzoiro 采集(events / standings / stats / all)。"""
+    """触发 bzzoiro 采集(events / standings / stats / all)。
+
+    启动后台任务前写入 ingest_jobs(pending),响应返回 job_id 供前端轮询。
+    兼容原 message 字段(仍返回)。
+    """
     if req.task not in VALID_TASKS:
         raise HTTPException(status_code=422, detail=f"未知任务类型: {req.task}(可选: {', '.join(sorted(VALID_TASKS))})")
     leagues = req.leagues or list(BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS.keys())
     task_label = {"events": "比赛数据", "standings": "积分榜", "stats": "统计回填", "all": "全量(比赛+积分榜+统计)"}[req.task]
-    _spawn(_run_bzzoiro(req.task, leagues, req))
-    return {
-        "ok": True,
-        "message": f"采集任务已启动(后台执行,任务: {task_label}),请在「系统日志」查看进度与结果",
+
+    job_id = await _create_ingest_job(req.task, leagues, req)
+    _spawn(_run_bzzoiro(job_id, req.task, leagues, req))
+
+    return IngestBzzoiroResponse(
+        ok=True,
+        job_id=job_id,
+        message=f"采集任务已启动(后台执行,任务: {task_label}),请到「数据采集」页跟踪进度",
+    )
+
+
+async def _create_ingest_job(task: str, leagues: list[str], req: IngestBzzoiroRequest) -> str:
+    """写入一条 ingest_jobs(pending),返回 job_id。"""
+    from src.db.models import IngestJob
+
+    job_id = str(uuid.uuid4())
+    params = {
+        "leagues": leagues,
+        "date_from": req.date_from,
+        "date_to": req.date_to,
+        "status": req.status,
+        "task": task,
+        "limit": req.limit,
+        "season": req.season,
     }
+    async with get_uow() as session:
+        job = IngestJob(id=job_id, task=task, params=params, status="pending")
+        session.add(job)
+    logger.info("ingest_jobs 创建: job=%s task=%s leagues=%s", job_id, task, leagues)
+    return job_id
 
 
-async def _run_bzzoiro(task: str, leagues: list[str], req: IngestBzzoiroRequest) -> None:
-    """后台执行 bzzoiro 采集:上游限速时单次可能耗时数分钟,必须脱离请求生命周期。"""
+async def _run_bzzoiro(job_id: str, task: str, leagues: list[str], req: IngestBzzoiroRequest) -> None:
+    """后台执行 bzzoiro 采集:上游限速时单次可能耗时数分钟,必须脱离请求生命周期。
+
+    状态流转: pending → running → (success|failed)。
+    """
+    from src.db.models import IngestJob
+
+    await _update_job(job_id, status="running", started_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc))
+    result: dict = {}
     try:
         if task in ("events", "all"):
             statuses = [req.status] if req.status else ["finished", "scheduled"]
@@ -66,19 +118,14 @@ async def _run_bzzoiro(task: str, leagues: list[str], req: IngestBzzoiroRequest)
                             session, leagues=[code],
                             date_from=req.date_from, date_to=req.date_to, status=st,
                         )
-                        merged["total_inserted"] += r.get("total_inserted", 0)
-                        merged["total_updated"] += r.get("total_updated", 0)
-                        merged["errors"].extend(r.get("errors", []))
-                        acc = merged["leagues"].setdefault(code, {"inserted": 0, "updated": 0, "errors": []})
-                        acc["inserted"] += r.get("inserted", 0)
-                        acc["updated"] += r.get("updated", 0)
-                        acc["errors"].extend(r.get("errors", []))
+                        _accumulate_ingest_result(merged, code, r)
             logger.info(
                 "bzzoiro 比赛采集完成: 新增 %d, 更新 %d, 联赛 %d 个, 状态 %s",
                 merged["total_inserted"], merged["total_updated"], len(merged["leagues"]), statuses,
             )
             if merged["errors"]:
                 logger.warning("bzzoiro 比赛采集错误 %d 条: %s", len(merged["errors"]), merged["errors"][:3])
+            result["events"] = merged
 
         if task in ("standings", "all"):
             async with get_uow() as session:
@@ -87,6 +134,7 @@ async def _run_bzzoiro(task: str, leagues: list[str], req: IngestBzzoiroRequest)
                 logger.warning("bzzoiro 积分榜采集部分失败: %s", r["errors"][:3])
             else:
                 logger.info("bzzoiro 积分榜采集完成: upsert %d 条", r["total_upserted"])
+            result["standings"] = r
 
         if task in ("stats", "all"):
             async with get_uow() as session:
@@ -95,5 +143,28 @@ async def _run_bzzoiro(task: str, leagues: list[str], req: IngestBzzoiroRequest)
                 )
             if r["errors"]:
                 logger.warning("bzzoiro 统计回填错误 %d 条: %s", len(r["errors"]), r["errors"][:3])
-    except Exception:
+            result["stats"] = r
+
+        await _update_job(job_id, status="success", result=result, finished_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc))
+        logger.info("ingest_jobs 完成: job=%s task=%s", job_id, task)
+    except Exception as e:
         logger.exception("bzzoiro 采集任务失败(task=%s)", task)
+        await _update_job(
+            job_id, status="failed", error=str(e), finished_at=datetime.now(timezone.utc),
+        )
+
+
+async def _update_job(job_id: str, **fields) -> None:
+    """更新 ingest_jobs 单行;失败仅记日志,绝不抛异常(避免干扰采集主流程)。"""
+    from src.db.models import IngestJob
+
+    try:
+        async with get_uow() as session:
+            job = await session.get(IngestJob, job_id)
+            if job is None:
+                logger.warning("ingest_jobs 更新失败: job=%s 不存在", job_id)
+                return
+            for k, v in fields.items():
+                setattr(job, k, v)
+    except Exception:
+        logger.warning("ingest_jobs 更新异常: job=%s fields=%s", job_id, list(fields.keys()))

src/api/routes/matches.py

@@ -5,15 +5,29 @@ from datetime import datetime, timedelta
 
 from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException, Query
 from sqlalchemy import func, or_, select
-from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
+from sqlalchemy.orm import load_only, selectinload
 
 from src.api.schemas import MatchListOut, MatchOut, PredictionOut
 from src.db.base import AsyncSession, get_db_read
-from src.db.models import League, Match, Prediction, Standing
+from src.db.models import League, Match, MatchStats, Prediction, Standing, Team
 
 router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1", tags=["data"])
 
 
+def _parse_cursor(cursor: str) -> tuple[datetime, int]:
+    """P1-B: 解析游标。非法格式 → HTTPException(400, code=INVALID_CURSOR)。"""
+    try:
+        last_date_str, last_id_str = cursor.split("|", 1)
+        last_date = datetime.fromisoformat(last_date_str)
+        last_id = int(last_id_str)
+        return last_date, last_id
+    except (ValueError, AttributeError) as e:
+        raise HTTPException(
+            status_code=400,
+            detail={"code": "INVALID_CURSOR", "message": f"非法游标格式: {cursor}(应为 date_iso|id)"},
+        ) from e
+
+
 def _stats_dict(stats) -> dict | None:
     """把 MatchStats ORM 对象序列化为前端可读的扁平 dict。"""
     if stats is None:
@@ -49,15 +63,24 @@ async def list_matches(
     limit: int = Query(50, ge=1, le=100),
     db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read),
 ):
-    """比赛列表(游标分页)。"""
-    q = select(Match).options(selectinload(Match.league), selectinload(Match.home_team), selectinload(Match.away_team))
+    """比赛列表(游标分页)。
+
+    加载策略(列表 vs 详情):
+      - 列表:仅 selectinload 序列化需要的 3 个关系 + stats,且用 load_only 限定列
+        (League.code / Team.name,name_zh / MatchStats.home_xg,away_xg),避免传输全列;
+        同时一次性加载 stats 消除 N+1(m.stats.home_xg 此前触发懒加载)。
+      - 详情(/matches/{id}):保持完整 options(league/teams/stats 全列 + 最近预测)。
+    """
+    q = select(Match).options(
+        selectinload(Match.league).load_only(League.code),
+        selectinload(Match.home_team).load_only(Team.name, Team.name_zh),
+        selectinload(Match.away_team).load_only(Team.name, Team.name_zh),
+        selectinload(Match.stats).load_only(MatchStats.home_xg, MatchStats.away_xg),
+    )
 
     if cursor:
-        try:
-            # 用 | 分隔,避免 isoformat 含 _ 时解析失败
-            last_date_str, last_id_str = cursor.split("|", 1)
-            last_date = datetime.fromisoformat(last_date_str)
-            last_id = int(last_id_str)
+        # P1-B: 解析非法 → 400 + code=INVALID_CURSOR,而非静默忽略
+        last_date, last_id = _parse_cursor(cursor)
         # 游标方向必须与排序方向一致:
         # - scheduled(ASC):取「更大」的未开赛场次
         # - 其它(DESC):取「更小」的已赛场次
@@ -71,8 +94,6 @@ async def list_matches(
                 (Match.match_date < last_date) |
                 ((Match.match_date == last_date) & (Match.id < last_id))
             )
-        except (ValueError, AttributeError):
-            pass
 
     if league:
         stmt = select(League.id).where(League.code == league)
@@ -148,15 +169,28 @@ async def get_match(match_id: int, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
     m = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
     if m is None:
         raise HTTPException(404, "match not found")
-    # 最近预测(倒序,最多 5 条)——复用 PredictionOut 结构,只读,不触发 LLM
+    # P1-C: 公开预测仅 run_type=live 且 status=success(屏蔽回测/失败预测)
     preds = (
         await db.execute(
             select(Prediction)
             .where(Prediction.match_id == match_id)
+            .where(Prediction.run_type == "live")
+            .where(Prediction.status == "success")
             .order_by(Prediction.created_at.desc())
             .limit(5)
         )
     ).scalars().all()
+    # P1-C: 公开接口的预测不含 reasoning/agent_outputs(避免泄露内部推理细节)
+    recent_predictions = [
+        {
+            "id": p.id, "match_id": p.match_id, "provider": p.provider, "model": p.model,
+            "prompt_version": p.prompt_version, "mode": p.mode or "single",
+            "pred_home_goals": p.pred_home_goals, "pred_away_goals": p.pred_away_goals,
+            "pred_1x2": p.pred_1x2, "subjective_confidence": p.subjective_confidence,
+            "created_at": p.created_at.isoformat() if p.created_at else None,
+        }
+        for p in preds
+    ]
     return MatchOut(
         id=m.id,
         league_code=m.league.code if m.league else None,
@@ -173,20 +207,7 @@ async def get_match(match_id: int, db: AsyncSession = Depends(get_db_read)):
         home_xg=m.stats.home_xg if m.stats else None,
         away_xg=m.stats.away_xg if m.stats else None,
         stats=_stats_dict(m.stats) if m.stats else None,
-        recent_predictions=[
-            PredictionOut(
-                id=p.id, match_id=p.match_id, provider=p.provider, model=p.model,
-                prompt_version=p.prompt_version, mode=p.mode or "single",
-                pred_home_goals=p.pred_home_goals, pred_away_goals=p.pred_away_goals,
-                alt_pred_home_goals=p.alt_pred_home_goals, alt_pred_away_goals=p.alt_pred_away_goals,
-                pred_1x2=p.pred_1x2, subjective_confidence=p.subjective_confidence,
-                reasoning=p.reasoning, status=p.status or "success",
-                agent_outputs=p.agent_outputs, agent_weights=p.agent_weights,
-                created_at=p.created_at, actual_home_goals=p.actual_home_goals,
-                actual_away_goals=p.actual_away_goals, settled=p.settled,
-            )
-            for p in preds
-        ],
+        recent_predictions=recent_predictions,
     )
 
 
@@ -274,7 +295,9 @@ async def list_standings(
 ):
     """联赛积分榜(只读)。按联赛分组,每张榜按 position 排序。
 
-    season 为空时返回每个联赛最新采集到的赛季榜单(适合前端"查看最新积分榜")。
+    P0-02: standings 为追加快照,公开接口取每队 available_at 最新快照
+    (league_id, season, team_id 上按 available_at 取最新)。
+    season 为空时返回每个联赛最新采集到的赛季榜单。
     """
     # 取每个联赛最新赛季(当 season 为空时)
     latest_seasons: dict[int, str] = {}
@@ -287,9 +310,25 @@ async def list_standings(
         ).all()
         latest_seasons = {r.league_id: r.latest for r in rows}
 
+    # P0-02: 子查询取每队最新 available_at 快照,再 JOIN 回主表拿完整行 + League
+    latest_per_team = (
+        select(
+            Standing.league_id, Standing.season, Standing.team_id,
+            func.max(Standing.available_at).label("max_available"),
+        )
+        .group_by(Standing.league_id, Standing.season, Standing.team_id)
+        .subquery("latest_per_team")
+    )
     q = (
         select(Standing, League)
         .join(League, League.id == Standing.league_id)
+        .join(
+            latest_per_team,
+            (Standing.league_id == latest_per_team.c.league_id)
+            & (Standing.season == latest_per_team.c.season)
+            & (Standing.team_id == latest_per_team.c.team_id)
+            & (Standing.available_at == latest_per_team.c.max_available),
+        )
         .order_by(League.name.asc(), Standing.position.asc())
     )
     if league:

src/api/routes/predict.py

@@ -2,10 +2,12 @@
 
 安全改进:
   - 限流: 每分钟 10 次 / IP(内存实现)
+  - P1-D: 全局 LLM 并发限制(默认 4),防止过多并发 LLM 调用压垮服务
   - DB 连接: 短 session 模式,LLM 调用期间不持有连接
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+import asyncio
 import logging
 
 from fastapi import APIRouter, Depends, HTTPException, Query, Request
@@ -22,6 +24,21 @@ logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
 router = APIRouter(prefix="/api/v1", tags=["predict"])
 
+# P1-D: 全局 LLM 并发限制。与 orchestrator 内的 match 级 Semaphore(8) 并存,
+# 此处在路由层限制单实例全 LLM 调用(所有模式汇总),默认 4。
+_GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE = asyncio.Semaphore(4)
+
+
+async def _predict_with_concurrency(req: PredictRequest) -> PredictResult:
+    """P1-D: 在全局 LLM 并发限制下执行预测。"""
+    async with _GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE:
+        return await predict_match(
+            req.match_id,
+            model=req.model,
+            prompt_version=req.prompt_version,
+            mode=req.mode,
+        )
+
 
 @router.post("/predict", response_model=PredictOut, dependencies=[Depends(rate_limit_predict)])
 async def predict(req: PredictRequest, request: Request):
@@ -42,14 +59,9 @@ async def predict(req: PredictRequest, request: Request):
         if m.match_status == "finished":
             raise HTTPException(400, "该比赛已完赛,不再支持预测")
 
-    # 2. 预测调用(不持有任何 DB 连接)
+    # 2. 预测调用(不持有任何 DB 连接,受全局 LLM 并发限制)
     try:
-        result = await predict_match(
-            req.match_id,
-            model=req.model,
-            prompt_version=req.prompt_version,
-            mode=req.mode,
-        )
+        result = await _predict_with_concurrency(req)
     except ValueError as e:
         msg = str(e)
         if "已结算" in msg:
@@ -64,10 +76,8 @@ async def predict(req: PredictRequest, request: Request):
         raise HTTPException(500, "预测失败,请查看服务器日志")
 
     # D2: 三种模式统一返回 PredictResult —— 字段映射单一化,无 dict 分支。
-    # 仅 baseline 的 prediction_id 需要在此落库补齐(服务层不落库)。
-    if req.mode == "baseline":
-        prediction_id = await _persist_baseline(req.match_id, result)
-    else:
+    # P3-2:baseline 已在服务层(predict_baseline)落库并回填真实 prediction_id,
+    # 路由层不再需要特殊的 _persist_baseline,与 single/multi 路径统一。
     prediction_id = result.prediction_id
 
     # 3. 结果映射(无 DB 访问)
@@ -101,36 +111,6 @@ async def predict(req: PredictRequest, request: Request):
     )
 
 
-async def _persist_baseline(match_id: int, baseline: PredictResult) -> int:
-    """将基线预测结果写入 prediction 表,复用 upsert 语义。"""
-    from src.db.unit_of_work import get_uow
-    from src.llm.predict import _upsert_prediction
-
-    async with get_uow() as session:
-        pred = await _upsert_prediction(
-            session,
-            match_id=match_id,
-            provider_name="baseline",
-            model="baseline",
-            mode="baseline",
-            run_type="live",  # baseline 是 live 预测的变体,符合 ck_run_type_enum
-            values={
-                "prompt_version": baseline.prompt_version,
-                "prompt_tokens": baseline.prompt_tokens or 0,
-                "completion_tokens": baseline.completion_tokens or 0,
-                "latency_ms": baseline.latency_ms or 0,
-                "pred_home_goals": baseline.pred_home_goals,
-                "pred_away_goals": baseline.pred_away_goals,
-                "pred_1x2": baseline.pred_1x2,
-                "subjective_confidence": baseline.subjective_confidence,
-                "reasoning": baseline.reasoning,
-                "raw_response": baseline.raw,
-                "status": "success",
-            },
-        )
-        return pred.id
-
-
 @router.get("/predictions", response_model=list[PredictionOut], dependencies=[Depends(require_admin)])
 async def list_predictions(
     match_id: int | None = None,

src/api/routes/schedules.py

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@ from sqlalchemy import select, delete
 from src.api.deps import require_admin
 from src.api.schemas import ScheduleIn, ScheduleUpdate, ScheduleOut
 from src.core.scheduler import scheduler
-from src.data.bzzoiro import ingest_bzzoiro_event_stats, ingest_bzzoiro_standings
+from src.data.bzzoiro_standings import ingest_bzzoiro_standings
+from src.data.bzzoiro_stats import ingest_bzzoiro_event_stats
 from src.data.sources import get_source
 from src.data.config import BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS
 from src.db.base import AsyncSession, get_db_read

src/api/schemas.py

@@ -7,13 +7,6 @@ from typing import Any
 from pydantic import BaseModel, Field
 
 
-class LeagueOut(BaseModel):
-    id: int
-    code: str
-    name: str
-    country: str | None
-
-
 class MatchOut(BaseModel):
     id: int
     league_code: str | None
@@ -31,8 +24,8 @@ class MatchOut(BaseModel):
     away_xg: float | None = None
     # 比赛详细统计(bzzoiro /events/{id}/stats/),无统计为 None
     stats: dict | None = None
-    # 该场比赛的最近预测摘要(按时间倒序,最多 5 条;无预测为空)
-    recent_predictions: list[PredictionOut] = []
+    # P1-C: 公开接口的预测不含 reasoning/agent_outputs;仅 live+success 路由已过滤
+    recent_predictions: list[dict] = []
 
 
 class MatchListOut(BaseModel):
@@ -43,7 +36,7 @@ class MatchListOut(BaseModel):
 
 class PredictRequest(BaseModel):
     match_id: int
-    provider: str | None = None
+    # P1-D: 删除未接线的 provider 字段(符合"名不副实则删除");provider 由服务端配置决定。
     model: str | None = None
     prompt_version: str | None = None
     mode: str = Field(
@@ -117,11 +110,39 @@ class IngestBzzoiroRequest(BaseModel):
     season: str | None = Field(None, description="standings 赛季,如 '2026-2027';空 = 当前赛季")
 
 
-class IngestResponse(BaseModel):
-    leagues: dict
-    total_inserted: int
-    total_updated: int
-    errors: list[str] = []
+class TeamAliasIn(BaseModel):
+    """POST /api/v1/admin/teams/aliases 请求体:为已有 Team 添加别名。"""
+
+    alias: str = Field(..., min_length=1, max_length=120, description="球队别名(原始写法)")
+    team_id: int = Field(..., gt=0, description="归一后的目标 teams.id")
+
+
+class TeamAliasOut(BaseModel):
+    alias_normalized: str
+    team_id: int
+    original_alias: str
+
+
+class IngestBzzoiroResponse(BaseModel):
+    """POST /api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro 响应:兼容原 message 字段,新增 job_id 供轮询。"""
+
+    ok: bool = True
+    job_id: str = Field(..., description="采集任务 ID(GET /api/v1/admin/ingest/jobs/{job_id} 轮询)")
+    message: str = ""
+
+
+class IngestJobOut(BaseModel):
+    """采集任务状态详情。"""
+
+    id: str
+    task: str
+    params: dict
+    status: str  # pending | running | success | failed
+    result: dict | None = None
+    error: str | None = None
+    created_at: datetime | None = None
+    started_at: datetime | None = None
+    finished_at: datetime | None = None
 
 
 class ScheduleIn(BaseModel):

src/core/config.py

@@ -11,6 +11,10 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     # --- app ---
     APP_ENV: str = "development"
     LOG_LEVEL: str = "INFO"
+    # P3-3:多 worker 时应用内限流与 KeyRing 各自独立计数(配额放大 N 倍)。
+    # 设为 True 时若以多 worker 启动 uvicorn 则拒绝启动,避免静默配额漂移。
+    # 仅在你已前置 Nginx/网关做全局限流、确认不需要此守护时留空/False。
+    STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER: bool = False
     # 生产环境强制要求管理鉴权配置,即使 APP_ENV=production 也生效。
     # True 时若 auth_configured() 为 False 则拒绝(503),development 保持 fail-open。
     REQUIRE_ADMIN_AUTH: bool = False
@@ -28,6 +32,12 @@ class Settings(BaseSettings):
     LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL: str = ""
     LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL: str = ""
 
+    # ── 预测缓存 ──
+    # 预测响应缓存后端:空(默认)=进程内 LRU+TTL 字典;填 redis://host:port/db 启用 Redis。
+    # Redis 失败自动降级内存缓存并 warning,不中断预测;不强制依赖 redis 包。
+    # TTL 固定 300s(5 分钟),键格式与内存后端一致(含 prompt 模板 hash)。
+    PREDICT_CACHE_URL: str = ""
+
     # --- data sources ---
     BZZOIRO_KEY: str = ""
     BZZOIRO_BASE: str = "https://sports.bzzoiro.com/api/v2"

src/core/security_check.py

@@ -30,10 +30,6 @@ _MIN_SECRET_KEY_LEN = 16
 _WEAK_DB_PATTERNS = ("football:football@", "admin:admin@", "password@", "123456@")
 
 
-class SecurityCheckError(Exception):
-    """生产环境安全校验失败。"""
-
-
 async def _auth_configured() -> bool:
     """运行时鉴权是否已配置(含数据库密码哈希/.env 明文/API Key)。"""
     if await get_admin_password_hash():

src/data/bzzoiro.py

@@ -1,793 +1,66 @@
-"""Bzzoiro 数据源:抓取 + 入库(单一数据源)。
+"""Bzzoiro 数据源:抓取 + 入库(单一数据源)—— 聚合门面。
 
-三条管线:
-  1. events   — 比赛日程/比分(/events/),含 source_event_id 血缘
-  2. standings— 联赛积分榜快照(/leagues/{id}/standings/)
-  3. stats    — 已完赛比赛详细统计回填(/events/{id}/stats/)
+实现按管线拆分(单文件 → 多模块),本模块只做再导出,保持不变量:
+  1. sources._load_sources() 仍从本模块导入 BzzoiroSource(注册表入口不变);
+  2. 测试与脚本对 `bz.<名称>` 的 monkeypatch 语义不变 —— 抓取函数 / REQUEST_INTERVAL
+     仍经本门面解析可替换;Bronze 写入助手(_write_raw_event/_write_lineage/
+     _safe_write_ingest_failure)已改为管线模块直接 import pipeline_write,
+    测试需 patch `src.data.pipeline_write.*` 源模块。
+
+三条管线(各自模块):
+  1. events   — 比赛日程/比分(/events/),含 source_event_id 血缘  → bzzoiro_events.py
+  2. standings— 联赛积分榜快照(/leagues/{id}/standings/)          → bzzoiro_standings.py
+  3. stats    — 已完赛比赛详细统计回填(/events/{id}/stats/)        → bzzoiro_stats.py
+
+共享基础:HTTP 抓取(多 key 轮换)与字段转换 → bzzoiro_common.py;
+Bronze 基础设施(RawEvent/IngestFailure/DataLineage)→ pipeline_write.py
+(各管线模块直接 import pipeline_write,不再经本门面转发)。
 
 D4(工程债): Team/League/Match 的查找/创建经 Repository 层(src/db/repositories.py),
-本模块不直接控制事务(commit/rollback 由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制,这里只 flush)。
-Standing/RawEvent/Lineage 等管线内私有读写仍在本模块内实现,不强行 Repository 化。
+各管线不直接控制事务(commit/rollback 由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制,只 flush)。
+Standing/RawEvent/Lineage 等管线内私有读写仍不强行 Repository 化。
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
-import asyncio
-import logging
-import random
-from collections.abc import Iterable
-from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
-
-from sqlalchemy import select
-
-import httpx
-
-from src.core.runtime_config import get_runtime_value
-from src.core.http_client import get_client
-from src.data.config import BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS, LEAGUE_COUNTRIES, LEAGUE_NAMES, REQUEST_INTERVAL
-from src.data.key_ring import _mask, get_key_ring
-from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
-from src.data.team_names_zh import zh_name
-from src.data.sources import register
-from src.db.models import Match, MatchStats, Standing, Team, RawEvent, IngestFailure, DataLineage
-from src.db.repositories import LeagueRepository, MatchRepository, TeamRepository
-
-logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
-
-
-def _to_date(value):
-    """把 datetime / date / str 统一成 `date`。"""
-    if value is None:
-        return None
-    if hasattr(value, "date") and callable(value.date):
-        return value.date()
-    return value
-
-
-def _to_int_or_none(value) -> int | None:
-    """宽松转 int(用于上游 ID 解析,失败返回 None 不抛错)。"""
-    if value is None:
-        return None
-    try:
-        return int(str(value).strip())
-    except (TypeError, ValueError):
-        return None
-
-
-def _match_key(home_team_id: int, away_team_id: int, match_date) -> tuple[int, int, str]:
-    """比赛去重键:(主队, 客队, 天级日期 ISO 字符串)。
-
-    统一在这里构造,避免"预加载时用 str(date)、写入时用 isoformat()"这类
-    隐式格式依赖 —— 两者当前恰好相等,但一旦有人改动其一就会静默失配,
-    导致所有比赛被判为不存在而重复插入。
-    """
-    d = _to_date(match_date)
-    return (home_team_id, away_team_id, d.isoformat() if d is not None else "")
-
-
-async def _fetch_json_async(path: str, params: dict | None = None, max_retries: int = 3) -> dict | list:
-    """异步 HTTP(bzzoiro 使用 httpx,不再阻塞事件循环线程池)。
-
-    多 key 轮换:遇到 429 自动切换到下一个 key;全部 key 冷却时等待最早恢复。
-    """
-    base = (await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")).rstrip("/")
-    raw_keys = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
-    ring = get_key_ring(base, raw_keys)
-
-    url = f"{base}/{path.lstrip('/')}"
-    key = ring.get()
-    if not key:
-        raise RuntimeError("BZZOIRO_KEY 未设置")
-
-    last_exc: Exception | None = None
-    for attempt in range(max_retries):
-        headers = {
-            "Authorization": f"Token {key}",
-            "Accept": "application/json",
-        }
-        try:
-            client = get_client()
-            # 整请求兜底: httpx 无 total 超时,用 wait_for 防「滴水式」限速挂死
-            resp = await asyncio.wait_for(
-                client.get(
-                    url, headers=headers, params=params,
-                    timeout=httpx.Timeout(connect=10.0, read=30.0, write=10.0, pool=10.0),
-                ),
-                timeout=60.0,
-            )
-            resp.raise_for_status()
-            return resp.json()
-        except Exception as e:
-            last_exc = e
-            status = getattr(getattr(e, "response", None), "status_code", None)
-            if status == 429:
-                # 限流:标记当前 key 冷却,切换到下一个
-                new_key = ring.report_rate_limited(key)
-                if new_key and new_key != key:
-                    logger.info("bzzoiro 429 → 切换 key: %s → %s,立即重试", _mask(key), _mask(new_key))
-                    key = new_key
-                    continue  # 立即重试,不等待
-                # 单 key 或全部冷却:等待最早恢复的 key
-                wait = ring.wait_if_all_blocked()
-                if wait > 0:
-                    logger.warning("bzzoiro 全部 key 冷却,等待 %.1fs 后重试", wait)
-                    await asyncio.sleep(min(wait, 30.0))
-                else:
-                    delay = min(2 ** attempt, 16) + random.uniform(0, 1)
-                    logger.warning("bzzoiro 429, retry %d in %.1fs", attempt + 1, delay)
-                    await asyncio.sleep(delay)
-                key = ring.get() or key
-                continue
-            if 500 <= (status or 0) < 600:
-                delay = min(2 ** attempt, 16) + random.uniform(0, 1)
-                logger.warning("bzzoiro %d, retry %d in %.1fs", status, attempt + 1, delay)
-                await asyncio.sleep(delay)
-                continue
-            # 网络错误(连接失败/超时)也退避重试
-            if isinstance(e, (TimeoutError, ConnectionError, OSError)):
-                delay = min(2 ** attempt, 16) + random.uniform(0, 1)
-                logger.warning("bzzoiro network error, retry %d in %.1fs: %s", attempt + 1, delay, e)
-                await asyncio.sleep(delay)
-                continue
-            raise
-    raise RuntimeError(f"bzzoiro request failed after {max_retries} attempts: {last_exc}")
-
-
-async def fetch_bzzoiro_events(
-    league_code: str,
-    *,
-    status: str = "finished",
-    date_from: str | None = None,
-    date_to: str | None = None,
-    limit: int = 200,
-) -> list[dict]:
-    """抓取 bzzoiro 原始事件(纯异步,无需 run_in_executor)。"""
-    league_id = BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS.get(league_code)
-    if league_id is None:
-        raise ValueError(f"未知联赛代码: {league_code}")
-
-    rows: list[dict] = []
-    offset = 0
-    while True:
-        params: dict = {
-            "league_id": league_id,
-            "status": status,
-            "limit": limit,
-            "offset": offset,
-        }
-        if date_from:
-            params["date_from"] = str(date_from)[:10]
-        if date_to:
-            params["date_to"] = str(date_to)[:10]
-        payload = await _fetch_json_async("/events/", params)
-        batch = payload.get("results") or []
-        if not batch:
-            break
-        rows.extend(batch)
-        total = payload.get("total")
-        offset += limit
-        if total is not None and offset >= total:
-            break
-        if len(batch) < limit:
-            break
-        await asyncio.sleep(REQUEST_INTERVAL)
-    return rows
-
-
-@register
-class BzzoiroSource:
-    """bzzoiro 数据源(实现 DataSource 协议)。"""
-
-    name = "bzzoiro"
-
-    async def ingest(
-        self,
-        db,
-        *,
-        leagues: Iterable[str],
-        date_from: str | None = None,
-        date_to: str | None = None,
-        status: str = "finished",
-    ) -> dict:
-        """采集 bzzoiro → 入库。返回统计。
-
-        注意: 本方法不控制事务(commit/rollback),由调用方通过 UnitOfWork 控制。
-        """
-        result: dict = {"leagues": {}, "total_inserted": 0, "total_updated": 0, "errors": []}
-
-        for code in leagues:
-            league_r: dict = {"inserted": 0, "updated": 0, "errors": []}
-            try:
-                raw_events = await fetch_bzzoiro_events(code, status=status, date_from=date_from, date_to=date_to)
-            except Exception as e:
-                # 单联赛抓取失败隔离:记录错误后继续其余联赛,不拖垮整批
-                logger.exception("bzzoiro fetch failed for %s", code)
-                league_r["errors"].append(f"fetch failed: {e}")
-                await _safe_write_ingest_failure(
-                    db,
-                    entity_type="events",
-                    source_record_id=None,
-                    error=e,
-                    raw_payload={"league": code, "status": status, "date_from": date_from, "date_to": date_to},
-                )
-                result["leagues"][code] = league_r
-                continue
-
-            # D4: 联赛查找/创建经 LeagueRepository(事务仍由调用方 UoW 提交)
-            league = await LeagueRepository(db).get_or_create(
-                code, LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code), LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code)
-            )
-            team_r = TeamRepository(db)
-            match_r = MatchRepository(db)
-
-            # === 批量优化: 预加载球队和已有比赛到内存 ===
-            team_name_to_id: dict[str, int] = {}
-            existing_matches: dict[tuple[int, int, str], Match] = {}  # 完整对象,避免重复查询
-            # (NormalizedMatch, 原始 event) 成对保存:后续写 source_event_id 时
-            # 必须用配对的那条 event,不能依赖外层循环变量残留值。
-            normalized_matches: list[tuple] = []
-
-            if raw_events:
-                # 一次遍历: 收集球队名 + 规范化
-                all_team_names = set()
-                for raw in raw_events:
-                    nm = normalize_bzzoiro(raw, code)
-                    if nm is not None:
-                        try:
-                            nm.validate()
-                        except Exception as e:
-                            # P1-3: 统一使用 warning,不追加到 errors(仅运行时错误入 errors)
-                            logger.warning("normalize skip: %s", e)
-                            continue
-                        normalized_matches.append((nm, raw))
-                        all_team_names.add(nm.home_team)
-                        all_team_names.add(nm.away_team)
-
-                if all_team_names:
-                    team_name_to_id = {
-                        name: t.id
-                        for name, t in (await team_r.get_all_by_names(list(all_team_names))).items()
-                    }
-
-                # P1-2: 按需加载,只加载 raw_events 涉及日期范围的比赛(加 30 天缓冲)
-                # 避免加载联赛全部历史比赛到内存(多赛季采集时内存溢出)
-                if normalized_matches:
-                    # normalized_matches 存的是 (nm, raw) 元组,遍历需解包
-                    dates = [nm.date for nm, _raw in normalized_matches if nm.date is not None]
-                    if dates:
-                        min_dt = min(dates) - timedelta(days=30)
-                        max_dt = max(dates) + timedelta(days=30)
-                        matches_in_range = await match_r.find_by_league_and_date_range(
-                            league.id, min_dt, max_dt
-                        )
-                        existing_matches = {
-                            _match_key(m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.match_date_date): m
-                            for m in matches_in_range
-                        }
-                # else: existing_matches 保持空 dict(全量新比赛)
-
-            # D1: Bronze 层批次信息(每联赛每批次一个 batch_id;seen 防同批重复写入)
-            now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
-            bronze_batch_id = f"bzzoiro-events-{code}-{now:%Y%m%d%H%M%S}"
-            bronze_written: set[str] = set()
-
-            for nm, raw in normalized_matches:
-                # D1: RawEvent 幂等键(上游 id 或合成键),插入/变更更新共用
-                record_id = _events_record_id(code, nm, raw)
-
-                # 球队: 内存查找 + 按需创建(D4: 经 TeamRepository)
-                home_team_id = team_name_to_id.get(nm.home_team)
-                if home_team_id is None:
-                    home = await team_r.get_or_create(nm.home_team, name_zh=zh_name(nm.home_team))
-                    home_team_id = home.id
-                    team_name_to_id[nm.home_team] = home_team_id
-
-                away_team_id = team_name_to_id.get(nm.away_team)
-                if away_team_id is None:
-                    away = await team_r.get_or_create(nm.away_team, name_zh=zh_name(nm.away_team))
-                    away_team_id = away.id
-                    team_name_to_id[nm.away_team] = away_team_id
-
-                # 查找已有比赛: 内存查找
-                match_key = _match_key(home_team_id, away_team_id, nm.date)
-                existing_match = existing_matches.get(match_key)
-
-                if existing_match is None:
-                    m = Match(
-                        league_id=league.id,
-                        season=nm.season_label or None,
-                        home_team_id=home_team_id,
-                        away_team_id=away_team_id,
-                        match_date=nm.date,
-                        match_date_date=_to_date(nm.date),
-                        match_status=nm.match_status,
-                        home_goals=nm.home_goals,
-                        away_goals=nm.away_goals,
-                        home_ht_goals=nm.home_ht_goals,
-                        away_ht_goals=nm.away_ht_goals,
-                        match_stage=nm.match_stage,
-                        source_event_id=_to_int_or_none(raw.get("id")),
-                    )
-                    db.add(m)
-                    await db.flush()
-                    existing_matches[match_key] = m  # 防止同批重复
-                    # 统计字段不在 /events/ 载荷中(单独由 stats 管线回填),
-                    # 此处不再创建 MatchStats。
-                    league_r["inserted"] += 1
-                    # D1: 成功插入 → 补写 Bronze 层(原始载荷 + 血缘)
-                    if record_id not in bronze_written:
-                        bronze_written.add(record_id)
-                        await _write_events_bronze(
-                            db,
-                            source_record_id=record_id,
-                            raw_payload=raw,
-                            target_match_id=m.id,
-                            league_code=code,
-                            match_status=nm.match_status,
-                            batch_id=bronze_batch_id,
-                        )
-                else:
-                    # 已有比赛: 直接从内存获取对象更新(无需再查询)
-                    changed = False
-                    if existing_match.match_status != nm.match_status and nm.match_status == "finished":
-                        existing_match.match_status = nm.match_status
-                        changed = True
-                    if existing_match.home_goals is None and nm.home_goals is not None:
-                        existing_match.home_goals = nm.home_goals
-                        existing_match.away_goals = nm.away_goals
-                        existing_match.home_ht_goals = nm.home_ht_goals
-                        existing_match.away_ht_goals = nm.away_ht_goals
-                        changed = True
-                    if existing_match.match_stage is None and nm.match_stage:
-                        existing_match.match_stage = nm.match_stage
-                        changed = True
-                    if existing_match.source_event_id is None:
-                        eid = _to_int_or_none(raw.get("id"))
-                        if eid is not None:
-                            existing_match.source_event_id = eid
-                            changed = True
-                    if changed:
-                        league_r["updated"] += 1
-                        # D1: 变更更新 → 补写血缘(RawEvent 幂等键不变,重复采集自动跳过)
-                        if record_id not in bronze_written:
-                            bronze_written.add(record_id)
-                            await _write_events_bronze(
-                                db,
-                                source_record_id=record_id,
-                                raw_payload=raw,
-                                target_match_id=existing_match.id,
-                                league_code=code,
-                                match_status=nm.match_status,
-                                batch_id=bronze_batch_id,
-                            )
-
-            # 注意: 不在此处 commit,由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制事务
-            result["leagues"][code] = league_r
-            result["total_inserted"] += league_r["inserted"]
-            result["total_updated"] += league_r["updated"]
-        return result
-
-
-# ============================================================
-# 管线基础设施:RawEvent / IngestFailure / DataLineage
-# ============================================================
-
-
-async def _write_raw_event(db, source_system: str, source_record_id: str, raw_payload: dict, batch_id: str | None = None) -> None:
-    """写入 Bronze 层原始事件(幂等:同 source_record_id 跳过)。"""
-    from sqlalchemy import select as _select
-    stmt = _select(RawEvent).where(
-        RawEvent.source_system == source_system,
-        RawEvent.source_record_id == source_record_id,
-    )
-    existing = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
-    if existing is None:
-        db.add(RawEvent(
-            source_system=source_system,
-            source_record_id=source_record_id,
-            raw_payload=raw_payload,
-            ingest_batch_id=batch_id,
-        ))
-
-
-async def _write_ingest_failure(db, source_system: str, entity_type: str, source_record_id: str | None, error_type: str, error_detail: str | None, raw_payload: dict | None = None) -> None:
-    """写入采集失败死信。"""
-    db.add(IngestFailure(
-        source_system=source_system,
-        entity_type=entity_type,
-        source_record_id=source_record_id,
-        error_type=error_type,
-        error_detail=error_detail,
-        raw_payload=raw_payload,
-    ))
-
-
-async def _safe_write_ingest_failure(
-    db,
-    *,
-    entity_type: str,
-    source_record_id: str | None,
-    error: Exception,
-    raw_payload: dict | None = None,
-) -> None:
-    """抓取失败时尽力写入死信表(失败不影响主流程)。
-
-    死信是「可观测性」基础设施,与 RawEvent/Lineage 同级:写入失败只记
-    warning,绝不能让原始抓取错误之外的新异常打断采集循环。
-    """
-    try:
-        await _write_ingest_failure(
-            db, "bzzoiro", entity_type, source_record_id,
-            "fetch_error", str(error), raw_payload,
-        )
-    except Exception:
-        logger.warning(
-            "写入 ingest_failures 死信失败(entity=%s, record=%s): %s",
-            entity_type, source_record_id, error, exc_info=True,
-        )
-
-
-async def _write_lineage(db, source_system: str, source_record_id: str, target_table: str, target_id: int | None, transform_name: str, transform_detail: dict | None = None, batch_id: str | None = None) -> None:
-    """写入 ETL 血缘追踪。"""
-    db.add(DataLineage(
-        source_system=source_system,
-        source_record_id=source_record_id,
-        target_table=target_table,
-        target_id=target_id,
-        transform_name=transform_name,
-        transform_detail=transform_detail,
-        batch_id=batch_id,
-    ))
-
-
-def _events_record_id(league_code: str, nm, raw: dict) -> str:
-    """events 载荷的 RawEvent 幂等键。
-
-    优先用上游 event id;缺失时用 (league:home:away:date) 合成稳定键 ——
-    取 normalize 后的队名与天级日期(与 _match_key 同口径),不依赖 DB 自增 id,
-    保证同一来源比赛重复采集时命中同一条 RawEvent,不产生重复原始载荷。
-    """
-    eid = _to_int_or_none(raw.get("id"))
-    if eid is not None:
-        return str(eid)
-    d = _to_date(nm.date)
-    date_part = d.isoformat() if d is not None else "na"
-    return f"{league_code}:{nm.home_team}:{nm.away_team}:{date_part}"
-
-
-async def _write_events_bronze(
-    db,
-    *,
-    source_record_id: str,
-    raw_payload: dict,
-    target_match_id: int | None,
-    league_code: str,
-    match_status: str | None,
-    batch_id: str,
-) -> None:
-    """events 成功插入/更新单场比赛后的 Bronze 层补写:RawEvent(幂等) + DataLineage。
-
-    D1(工程债):此前只有 stats 回填写 RawEvent/Lineage,events 管线作为比赛
-    主数据的唯一入口反而不留溯源记录。幂等性由 _write_raw_event 的
-    source_record_id 查重保证;best-effort:基础设施写入失败只记 warning,
-    绝不拖垮采集主流程(与 _safe_write_ingest_failure 同级约束)。
-    """
-    try:
-        await _write_raw_event(db, "bzzoiro", source_record_id, raw_payload, batch_id)
-        await _write_lineage(
-            db, "bzzoiro", source_record_id,
-            "matches", target_match_id, "events_ingest",
-            {"league": league_code, "match_status": match_status},
-            batch_id,
-        )
-    except Exception:
-        logger.warning(
-            "events Bronze 写入失败(record=%s, match=%s),不影响采集主流程",
-            source_record_id, target_match_id, exc_info=True,
-        )
-
-
-# ============================================================
-# 积分榜管线:/leagues/{id}/standings/ → standings 表
-# ============================================================
-
-async def fetch_bzzoiro_standings(league_code: str, season: str | None = None) -> dict:
-    """抓取联赛积分榜(纯抓取,不入库)。season 为 None 时取当前赛季。"""
-    league_id = BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS.get(league_code)
-    if league_id is None:
-        raise ValueError(f"未知联赛代码: {league_code}")
-    params: dict = {}
-    if season:
-        params["season"] = season
-    return await _fetch_json_async(f"/leagues/{league_id}/standings/", params)
-
-
-def _season_label_from_dates(start_date, end_date) -> str:
-    """从赛季起止日期推导赛季标签(与 derive_season_label 语义一致)。"""
-    try:
-        if isinstance(start_date, str):
-            start = datetime.fromisoformat(start_date[:10])
-        else:
-            start = start_date
-        y = start.year
-        return f"{y}-{y + 1}" if start.month >= 8 else f"{y - 1}-{y}"
-    except (TypeError, ValueError):
-        return "?"
-
-
-async def ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, *, leagues: Iterable[str], season: str | None = None) -> dict:
-    """采集积分榜 → upsert standings 表。
-
-    season 为 None 时采集当前赛季(bzzoiro 默认返回 is_current 赛季)。
-    球队名与 events 管线使用同一 normalize 规则,保证 Team 匹配。
-    """
-    from src.data.team_names import normalize as normalize_name
-
-    result: dict = {"leagues": {}, "total_upserted": 0, "errors": []}
-    for code in leagues:
-        league_r: dict = {"upserted": 0, "teams_created": 0, "rows": 0, "errors": []}
-        try:
-            payload = await fetch_bzzoiro_standings(code, season=season)
-        except Exception as e:
-            logger.exception("bzzoiro standings fetch failed for %s", code)
-            league_r["errors"].append(str(e))
-            await _safe_write_ingest_failure(
-                db,
-                entity_type="standings",
-                source_record_id=None,
-                error=e,
-                raw_payload={"league": code, "season": season},
-            )
-            result["leagues"][code] = league_r
-            result["errors"].append(f"{code}: {e}")
-            continue
-
-        rows = payload.get("standings") or []
-        if not rows:
-            result["leagues"][code] = {"error": "无积分榜数据(赛季未开始或未提供)"}
-            result["errors"].append(f"{code}: 无积分榜数据")
-            continue
-
-        # 联赛(get-or-create,D4: 经 LeagueRepository)
-        league = await LeagueRepository(db).get_or_create(
-            code, LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code), LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code)
-        )
-        team_r = TeamRepository(db)
-
-        # 赛季标签:优先用返回的 season 对象推导
-        season_obj = payload.get("season") or {}
-        season_label = _season_label_from_dates(
-            season_obj.get("start_date"), season_obj.get("end_date")
-        )
-        if season_label == "?":
-            season_label = season or ""
-
-        # 批量预载球队(与 events 管线使用同一 normalize 规则,保证 Team 匹配)
-        names = {normalize_name(str(r.get("team_name", ""))) for r in rows}
-        names.discard("")
-        team_map: dict[str, Team] = await team_r.get_all_by_names(list(names))
-
-        now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
-        for r in rows:
-            team_name = normalize_name(str(r.get("team_name", "")))
-            if not team_name:
-                continue
-            team = team_map.get(team_name)
-            if team is None:
-                team = await team_r.get_or_create(team_name, name_zh=zh_name(team_name))
-                team_map[team_name] = team
-                league_r["teams_created"] += 1
-
-            zone = r.get("zone") or {}
-            values = dict(
-                position=_to_int_or_none(r.get("position")) or 0,
-                played=_to_int_or_none(r.get("played")) or 0,
-                won=_to_int_or_none(r.get("won")) or 0,
-                drawn=_to_int_or_none(r.get("drawn")) or 0,
-                lost=_to_int_or_none(r.get("lost")) or 0,
-                goals_for=_to_int_or_none(r.get("gf")) or 0,
-                goals_against=_to_int_or_none(r.get("ga")) or 0,
-                goal_diff=_to_int_or_none(r.get("gd")) or 0,
-                points=_to_int_or_none(r.get("pts")) or 0,
-                xg_for=_to_float_or_none(r.get("xgf")),
-                xg_against=_to_float_or_none(r.get("xga")),
-                form=r.get("form") or None,
-                zone=zone.get("label") or zone.get("key") or None,
-                updated_at=now,
-                retrieved_at=now,
-            )
-
-            # 同一联赛同一赛季只保留最新快照:按 (league, season, team) upsert
-            stmt = select(Standing).where(
-                Standing.league_id == league.id,
-                Standing.season == season_label,
-                Standing.team_id == team.id,
-            )
-            standing = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
-            if standing is None:
-                standing = Standing(
-                    league_id=league.id, season=season_label, team_id=team.id, **values
-                )
-                db.add(standing)
-            else:
-                for k, v in values.items():
-                    setattr(standing, k, v)
-            league_r["upserted"] += 1
-
-        league_r["rows"] = len(rows)
-        result["leagues"][code] = league_r
-        result["total_upserted"] += league_r["upserted"]
-        logger.info(
-            "bzzoiro standings 采集完成: %s 赛季 %s, upsert %d/%d",
-            code, season_label, league_r["upserted"], league_r["rows"],
-        )
-    return result
-
-
-# ============================================================
-# 统计回填管线:/events/{id}/stats/ → match_stats 表
-# ============================================================
-
-# bzzoiro stats 字段 → MatchStats 字段映射(stats.home / stats.away 下)
-_STATS_FIELD_MAP = {
-    "xg": ("home_xg", "away_xg"),                    # 回退 expected_goals
-    "ball_possession": ("home_possession", None),     # 只取主队值,客队=100-home
-    "total_shots": ("home_shots", "away_shots"),
-    "shots_on_target": ("home_shots_on_target", "away_shots_on_target"),
-    "corner_kicks": ("home_corners", "away_corners"),
-    "yellow_cards": ("home_yellow_cards", "away_yellow_cards"),
-    "red_cards": ("home_red_cards", "away_red_cards"),
-    "big_chances": ("home_big_chances", "away_big_chances"),
-    "fouls": ("home_fouls", "away_fouls"),
-}
-
-
-def _pick(d: dict, *keys):
-    """按优先级取第一个非空字段值。"""
-    for k in keys:
-        v = d.get(k)
-        if v is not None:
-            return v
-    return None
-
-
-def _stats_from_payload(payload: dict) -> dict:
-    """把 /events/{id}/stats/ 响应映射成 MatchStats 字段 dict。
-
-    响应结构: {"event_id": ..., "stats": {"home": {...}, "away": {...}}}
-    """
-    stats = (payload or {}).get("stats") or {}
-    home = stats.get("home") or {}
-    away = stats.get("away") or {}
-    out: dict = {}
-
-    xg_h = _pick(home, "xg", "expected_goals")
-    xg_a = _pick(away, "xg", "expected_goals")
-    if xg_h is not None:
-        out["home_xg"] = _to_float_or_none(xg_h)
-    if xg_a is not None:
-        out["away_xg"] = _to_float_or_none(xg_a)
-
-    poss = home.get("ball_possession")
-    if poss is not None:
-        p = _to_float_or_none(poss)
-        if p is not None:
-            out["home_possession"] = p
-
-    for src, (h_fld, a_fld) in _STATS_FIELD_MAP.items():
-        if src in ("xg", "ball_possession"):
-            continue  # 已处理
-        hv = home.get(src)
-        av = away.get(src)
-        if hv is not None and h_fld:
-            out[h_fld] = _to_int_or_none(hv)
-        if av is not None and a_fld:
-            out[a_fld] = _to_int_or_none(av)
-    return out
-
-
-def _to_float_or_none(value) -> float | None:
-    if value is None:
-        return None
-    try:
-        return float(str(value).strip())
-    except (TypeError, ValueError):
-        return None
-
-
-async def ingest_bzzoiro_event_stats(
-    db,
-    *,
-    leagues: Iterable[str],
-    limit: int = 100,
-    only_missing: bool = True,
-) -> dict:
-    """回填已完赛比赛的详细统计(逐场调 /events/{id}/stats/)。
-
-    筛选条件: match_status=finished 且 source_event_id 非空。
-    only_missing=True 时跳过已有统计的比赛(增量);False 则全量刷新。
-    limit 控制单次最多处理的比赛数(上游限速 1.2s/请求,大批量需分次触发)。
-    """
-    result: dict = {"fetched": 0, "created": 0, "updated": 0, "skipped": 0, "errors": []}
-
-    league_ids = [BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS[c] for c in leagues if c in BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS]
-    if not league_ids:
-        result["errors"].append("无有效联赛代码")
-        return result
-
-    # D4: 候选比赛查询经 MatchRepository(含 stats 预加载,筛选/排序/limit 语义不变)
-    matches = await MatchRepository(db).find_finished_with_stats(
-        league_ids, limit=limit * 3 if only_missing else limit
-    )
-
-    now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
-    processed = 0
-    for m in matches:
-        if processed >= limit:
-            break
-        if only_missing and m.stats is not None and m.stats.home_shots is not None:
-            result["skipped"] += 1
-            continue
-        processed += 1
-        try:
-            payload = await _fetch_json_async(f"/events/{m.source_event_id}/stats/")
-        except Exception as e:
-            logger.warning("stats fetch failed match=%s event=%s: %s", m.id, m.source_event_id, e)
-            result["errors"].append(f"match {m.id}: {e}")
-            await _safe_write_ingest_failure(
-                db,
-                entity_type="match_stats",
-                source_record_id=str(m.source_event_id),
-                error=e,
-                raw_payload={"match_id": m.id},
-            )
-            await asyncio.sleep(REQUEST_INTERVAL)
-            continue
-
-        result["fetched"] += 1
-        fields = _stats_from_payload(payload)
-        if not fields:
-            result["skipped"] += 1
-            await asyncio.sleep(REQUEST_INTERVAL)
-            continue
-
-        if m.stats is None:
-            available_at = m.match_date + timedelta(hours=2) if m.match_date else now
-            m.stats = MatchStats(
-                match_id=m.id,
-                source="bzzoiro",
-                source_record_id=str(m.source_event_id),
-                retrieved_at=now,
-                available_at=available_at,
-            )
-            db.add(m.stats)
-            result["created"] += 1
-        else:
-            result["updated"] += 1
-            if m.stats.source is None:
-                m.stats.source = "bzzoiro"
-                m.stats.source_record_id = str(m.source_event_id)
-            if m.stats.retrieved_at is None:
-                m.stats.retrieved_at = now
-            if m.stats.available_at is None and m.match_date:
-                m.stats.available_at = m.match_date + timedelta(hours=2)
-
-        for fld, v in fields.items():
-            if hasattr(m.stats, fld):
-                setattr(m.stats, fld, v)
-
-        # 管线基础设施:写入 RawEvent + DataLineage
-        batch_id = f"bzzoiro-stats-{m.source_event_id}-{now.strftime('%Y%m%d%H%M%S')}"
-        try:
-            await _write_raw_event(db, "bzzoiro", str(m.source_event_id), payload, batch_id)
-            await _write_lineage(db, "bzzoiro", str(m.source_event_id), "match_stats", m.stats.id if m.stats else None, "stats_backfill", {"match_id": m.id}, batch_id)
-        except Exception:
-            pass  # 基础设施写入失败不影响主流程
-
-        await asyncio.sleep(REQUEST_INTERVAL)
-
-    logger.info(
-        "bzzoiro stats 回填完成: 抓取 %d, 新建 %d, 更新 %d, 跳过 %d, 错误 %d",
-        result["fetched"], result["created"], result["updated"],
-        result["skipped"], len(result["errors"]),
-    )
-    return result
+# ── 配置常量(原文件即从 config 再导出,维持 bz.REQUEST_INTERVAL 等引用) ──
+from src.data.config import (  # noqa: F401
+    BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS,
+    LEAGUE_COUNTRIES,
+    LEAGUE_NAMES,
+    REQUEST_INTERVAL,
+)
+from src.data.key_ring import _mask  # noqa: F401  (R1 测试引用 bz._mask)
+from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro  # noqa: F401
+
+# ── 共享原语:HTTP 抓取 + 宽松字段转换 ──
+# NOTE: 管线模块同时从 bzzoiro_common 直接 import _fetch_json_async 等(经本处也转发)。
+from src.data.bzzoiro_common import (  # noqa: F401
+    _fetch_json_async,
+    _match_key,
+    _to_date,
+    _to_float_or_none,
+    _to_int_or_none,
+)
+
+# ── events 管线:BzzoiroSource(注册表入口)+ 抓取/入库 ──
+from src.data.bzzoiro_events import (  # noqa: F401
+    BzzoiroSource,
+    _events_record_id,
+    _write_events_bronze,
+    fetch_bzzoiro_events,
+)
+
+# ── standings 管线 ──
+from src.data.bzzoiro_standings import (  # noqa: F401
+    _season_label_from_dates,
+    _write_standings_bronze,
+    fetch_bzzoiro_standings,
+    ingest_bzzoiro_standings,
+)
+
+# ── stats 回填管线 ──
+from src.data.bzzoiro_stats import (  # noqa: F401
+    _pick,
+    _stats_from_payload,
+    ingest_bzzoiro_event_stats,
+)

src/data/bzzoiro_common.py

@@ -0,0 +1,123 @@
+"""bzzoiro 管线共享原语:HTTP 抓取(多 key 轮换)与宽松字段转换。
+
+从 bzzoiro.py 拆出(单文件 → 多模块):仅放无业务语义的共享基础,
+三条管线(events/standings/stats)与聚合门面见 bzzoiro.py。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import asyncio
+import logging
+import random
+
+import httpx
+
+from src.core.http_client import get_client
+from src.core.runtime_config import get_runtime_value
+from src.data.key_ring import _mask, get_key_ring
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+def _to_date(value):
+    """把 datetime / date / str 统一成 `date`。"""
+    if value is None:
+        return None
+    if hasattr(value, "date") and callable(value.date):
+        return value.date()
+    return value
+
+
+def _to_int_or_none(value) -> int | None:
+    """宽松转 int(用于上游 ID 解析,失败返回 None 不抛错)。"""
+    if value is None:
+        return None
+    try:
+        return int(str(value).strip())
+    except (TypeError, ValueError):
+        return None
+
+
+def _to_float_or_none(value) -> float | None:
+    try:
+        return float(str(value).strip())
+    except (TypeError, ValueError):
+        return None
+
+
+def _match_key(home_team_id: int, away_team_id: int, match_date) -> tuple[int, int, str]:
+    """比赛去重键:(主队, 客队, 天级日期 ISO 字符串)。
+
+    统一在这里构造,避免"预加载时用 str(date)、写入时用 isoformat()"这类
+    隐式格式依赖 —— 两者当前恰好相等,但一旦有人改动其一就会静默失配,
+    导致所有比赛被判为不存在而重复插入。
+    """
+    d = _to_date(match_date)
+    return (home_team_id, away_team_id, d.isoformat() if d is not None else "")
+
+
+async def _fetch_json_async(path: str, params: dict | None = None, max_retries: int = 3) -> dict | list:
+    """异步 HTTP(bzzoiro 使用 httpx,不再阻塞事件循环线程池)。
+
+    多 key 轮换:遇到 429 自动切换到下一个 key;全部 key 冷却时等待最早恢复。
+    """
+    base = (await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_BASE")).rstrip("/")
+    raw_keys = await get_runtime_value("BZZOIRO_KEY")
+    ring = get_key_ring(base, raw_keys)
+
+    url = f"{base}/{path.lstrip('/')}"
+    key = ring.get()
+    if not key:
+        raise RuntimeError("BZZOIRO_KEY 未设置")
+
+    last_exc: Exception | None = None
+    for attempt in range(max_retries):
+        headers = {
+            "Authorization": f"Token {key}",
+            "Accept": "application/json",
+        }
+        try:
+            client = get_client()
+            # 整请求兜底: httpx 无 total 超时,用 wait_for 防「滴水式」限速挂死
+            resp = await asyncio.wait_for(
+                client.get(
+                    url, headers=headers, params=params,
+                    timeout=httpx.Timeout(connect=10.0, read=30.0, write=10.0, pool=10.0),
+                ),
+                timeout=60.0,
+            )
+            resp.raise_for_status()
+            return resp.json()
+        except Exception as e:
+            last_exc = e
+            status = getattr(getattr(e, "response", None), "status_code", None)
+            if status == 429:
+                # 限流:标记当前 key 冷却,切换到下一个
+                new_key = ring.report_rate_limited(key)
+                if new_key and new_key != key:
+                    logger.info("bzzoiro 429 → 切换 key: %s → %s,立即重试", _mask(key), _mask(new_key))
+                    key = new_key
+                    continue  # 立即重试,不等待
+                # 单 key 或全部冷却:等待最早恢复的 key
+                wait = ring.wait_if_all_blocked()
+                if wait > 0:
+                    logger.warning("bzzoiro 全部 key 冷却,等待 %.1fs 后重试", wait)
+                    await asyncio.sleep(min(wait, 30.0))
+                else:
+                    delay = min(2 ** attempt, 16) + random.uniform(0, 1)
+                    logger.warning("bzzoiro 429, retry %d in %.1fs", attempt + 1, delay)
+                    await asyncio.sleep(delay)
+                key = ring.get() or key
+                continue
+            if 500 <= (status or 0) < 600:
+                delay = min(2 ** attempt, 16) + random.uniform(0, 1)
+                logger.warning("bzzoiro %d, retry %d in %.1fs", status, attempt + 1, delay)
+                await asyncio.sleep(delay)
+                continue
+            # 网络错误(连接失败/超时)也退避重试
+            if isinstance(e, (TimeoutError, ConnectionError, OSError)):
+                delay = min(2 ** attempt, 16) + random.uniform(0, 1)
+                logger.warning("bzzoiro network error, retry %d in %.1fs: %s", attempt + 1, delay, e)
+                await asyncio.sleep(delay)
+                continue
+            raise
+    raise RuntimeError(f"bzzoiro request failed after {max_retries} attempts: {last_exc}")

src/data/bzzoiro_events.py

@@ -0,0 +1,327 @@
+"""bzzoiro events 管线:比赛日程/比分抓取(/events/)与入库(matches 表)。
+
+从 bzzoiro.py 拆出。比赛主数据唯一入口;Team/League/Match 查找/创建经
+Repository 层,事务由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制(分批事务约定不变)。
+
+可替换协作者(抓取函数 / Bronze 写入助手 / REQUEST_INTERVAL)在运行期
+经聚合门面 src.data.bzzoiro 解析 —— 与拆分前的单文件 monkeypatch 语义一致。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import asyncio
+import logging
+from collections.abc import Iterable
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+
+from src.data.bzzoiro_common import _match_key, _to_date, _to_int_or_none
+from src.data.config import BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS, LEAGUE_COUNTRIES, LEAGUE_NAMES
+from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
+from src.data.pipeline_write import _safe_write_ingest_failure, _write_lineage, _write_raw_event
+from src.data.sources import register
+from src.data.team_names_zh import zh_name
+from src.db.models import Match
+from src.db.repositories import LeagueRepository, MatchRepository, TeamRepository
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+async def fetch_bzzoiro_events(
+    league_code: str,
+    *,
+    status: str = "finished",
+    date_from: str | None = None,
+    date_to: str | None = None,
+    limit: int = 200,
+) -> list[dict]:
+    """抓取 bzzoiro 原始事件(纯异步,无需 run_in_executor)。"""
+    from src.data import bzzoiro as bz
+
+    league_id = BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS.get(league_code)
+    if league_id is None:
+        raise ValueError(f"未知联赛代码: {league_code}")
+
+    rows: list[dict] = []
+    offset = 0
+    while True:
+        params: dict = {
+            "league_id": league_id,
+            "status": status,
+            "limit": limit,
+            "offset": offset,
+        }
+        if date_from:
+            params["date_from"] = str(date_from)[:10]
+        if date_to:
+            params["date_to"] = str(date_to)[:10]
+        payload = await bz._fetch_json_async("/events/", params)
+        batch = payload.get("results") or []
+        if not batch:
+            break
+        rows.extend(batch)
+        total = payload.get("total")
+        offset += limit
+        if total is not None and offset >= total:
+            break
+        if len(batch) < limit:
+            break
+        await asyncio.sleep(bz.REQUEST_INTERVAL)
+    return rows
+
+
+@register
+class BzzoiroSource:
+    """bzzoiro 数据源(实现 DataSource 协议)。"""
+
+    name = "bzzoiro"
+
+    async def ingest(
+        self,
+        db,
+        *,
+        leagues: Iterable[str],
+        date_from: str | None = None,
+        date_to: str | None = None,
+        status: str = "finished",
+    ) -> dict:
+        """采集 bzzoiro → 入库。返回统计。
+
+        注意: 本方法不控制事务(commit/rollback),由调用方通过 UnitOfWork 控制。
+        """
+        from src.data import bzzoiro as bz
+
+        result: dict = {"leagues": {}, "total_inserted": 0, "total_updated": 0, "errors": []}
+
+        for code in leagues:
+            league_r: dict = {"inserted": 0, "updated": 0, "errors": []}
+            try:
+                raw_events = await bz.fetch_bzzoiro_events(code, status=status, date_from=date_from, date_to=date_to)
+            except Exception as e:
+                # 单联赛抓取失败隔离:记录错误后继续其余联赛,不拖垮整批
+                logger.exception("bzzoiro fetch failed for %s", code)
+                league_r["errors"].append(f"fetch failed: {e}")
+                await _safe_write_ingest_failure(
+                    db,
+                    entity_type="events",
+                    source_record_id=None,
+                    error=e,
+                    raw_payload={"league": code, "status": status, "date_from": date_from, "date_to": date_to},
+                )
+                result["leagues"][code] = league_r
+                continue
+
+            # D4: 联赛查找/创建经 LeagueRepository(事务仍由调用方 UoW 提交)
+            league = await LeagueRepository(db).get_or_create(
+                code, LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code), LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code)
+            )
+            team_r = TeamRepository(db)
+            match_r = MatchRepository(db)
+
+            # === 批量优化: 预加载球队和已有比赛到内存 ===
+            team_name_to_id: dict[str, int] = {}
+            existing_matches: dict[tuple[int, int, str], Match] = {}  # 完整对象,避免重复查询
+            # (NormalizedMatch, 原始 event) 成对保存:后续写 source_event_id 时
+            # 必须用配对的那条 event,不能依赖外层循环变量残留值。
+            normalized_matches: list[tuple] = []
+
+            if raw_events:
+                # 一次遍历: 收集球队名 + 规范化
+                all_team_names = set()
+                for raw in raw_events:
+                    nm = normalize_bzzoiro(raw, code)
+                    if nm is not None:
+                        try:
+                            nm.validate()
+                        except Exception:
+                            continue
+                        normalized_matches.append((nm, raw))
+                        all_team_names.add(nm.home_team)
+                        all_team_names.add(nm.away_team)
+
+                if all_team_names:
+                    team_name_to_id = {
+                        name: t.id
+                        for name, t in (await team_r.get_all_by_names(list(all_team_names))).items()
+                    }
+
+                # P1-2: 按需加载,只加载 raw_events 涉及日期范围的比赛(加 30 天缓冲)
+                # 避免加载联赛全部历史比赛到内存(多赛季采集时内存溢出)
+                if normalized_matches:
+                    # normalized_matches 存的是 (nm, raw) 元组,遍历需解包
+                    dates = [nm.date for nm, _raw in normalized_matches if nm.date is not None]
+                    if dates:
+                        min_dt = min(dates) - timedelta(days=30)
+                        max_dt = max(dates) + timedelta(days=30)
+                        matches_in_range = await match_r.find_by_league_and_date_range(
+                            league.id, min_dt, max_dt
+                        )
+                        existing_matches = {
+                            _match_key(m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.match_date_date): m
+                            for m in matches_in_range
+                        }
+                # else: existing_matches 保持空 dict(全量新比赛)
+
+            # D1: Bronze 层批次信息(每联赛每批次一个 batch_id;seen 防同批重复写入)
+            now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            bronze_batch_id = f"bzzoiro-events-{code}-{now:%Y%m%d%H%M%S}"
+            bronze_written: set[str] = set()
+
+            for nm, raw in normalized_matches:
+                # D1: RawEvent 幂等键(上游 id 或合成键),插入/变更更新共用
+                record_id = _events_record_id(code, nm, raw)
+
+                # 球队: 内存查找 + 按需创建(D4: 经 TeamRepository)
+                home_team_id = team_name_to_id.get(nm.home_team)
+                if home_team_id is None:
+                    home = await team_r.get_or_create(nm.home_team, name_zh=zh_name(nm.home_team))
+                    home_team_id = home.id
+                    team_name_to_id[nm.home_team] = home_team_id
+
+                away_team_id = team_name_to_id.get(nm.away_team)
+                if away_team_id is None:
+                    away = await team_r.get_or_create(nm.away_team, name_zh=zh_name(nm.away_team))
+                    away_team_id = away.id
+                    team_name_to_id[nm.away_team] = away_team_id
+
+                # 查找已有比赛:优先按 upstream event_id 定位(命中即唯一),
+                # 否则回退自然键(联赛+主客+天级日期)内存查找。
+                # source_event_id 上有 partial unique 索引保障 upstream 唯一。
+                eid = _to_int_or_none(raw.get("id"))
+                existing_match = None
+                if eid is not None:
+                    existing_match = await match_r.find_by_source_event_id(eid)
+                if existing_match is None:
+                    match_key = _match_key(home_team_id, away_team_id, nm.date)
+                    existing_match = existing_matches.get(match_key)
+
+                if existing_match is None:
+                    m = Match(
+                        league_id=league.id,
+                        season=nm.season_label or None,
+                        home_team_id=home_team_id,
+                        away_team_id=away_team_id,
+                        match_date=nm.date,
+                        match_date_date=_to_date(nm.date),
+                        match_status=nm.match_status,
+                        score_status=nm.score_status,
+                        home_goals=nm.home_goals,
+                        away_goals=nm.away_goals,
+                        home_ht_goals=nm.home_ht_goals,
+                        away_ht_goals=nm.away_ht_goals,
+                        match_stage=nm.match_stage,
+                        source_event_id=_to_int_or_none(raw.get("id")),
+                    )
+                    db.add(m)
+                    await db.flush()
+                    existing_matches[match_key] = m  # 防止同批重复
+                    # 统计字段不在 /events/ 载荷中(单独由 stats 管线回填),
+                    # 此处不再创建 MatchStats。
+                    league_r["inserted"] += 1
+                    # D1: 成功插入 → 补写 Bronze 层(原始载荷 + 血缘)
+                    if record_id not in bronze_written:
+                        bronze_written.add(record_id)
+                        await _write_events_bronze(
+                            db,
+                            source_record_id=record_id,
+                            raw_payload=raw,
+                            target_match_id=m.id,
+                            league_code=code,
+                            match_status=nm.match_status,
+                            batch_id=bronze_batch_id,
+                        )
+                else:
+                    # 已有比赛: 直接从内存获取对象更新(无需再查询)
+                    changed = False
+                    if existing_match.match_status != nm.match_status and nm.match_status == "finished":
+                        existing_match.match_status = nm.match_status
+                        changed = True
+                    if existing_match.home_goals is None and nm.home_goals is not None:
+                        existing_match.home_goals = nm.home_goals
+                        existing_match.away_goals = nm.away_goals
+                        existing_match.home_ht_goals = nm.home_ht_goals
+                        existing_match.away_ht_goals = nm.away_ht_goals
+                        # 比分由缺变有 → 标记 known
+                        existing_match.score_status = "known"
+                        changed = True
+                    elif (
+                        nm.match_status == "finished"
+                        and nm.home_goals is None
+                        and existing_match.score_status == "unknown"
+                    ):
+                        # 确认完赛仍缺分 → 标记 missing(不伪造 0:0)
+                        existing_match.score_status = "missing"
+                        changed = True
+                    if existing_match.match_stage is None and nm.match_stage:
+                        existing_match.match_stage = nm.match_stage
+                        changed = True
+                    if existing_match.source_event_id is None:
+                        eid = _to_int_or_none(raw.get("id"))
+                        if eid is not None:
+                            existing_match.source_event_id = eid
+                            changed = True
+                    if changed:
+                        league_r["updated"] += 1
+                        # D1: 变更更新 → 补写血缘(RawEvent 幂等键不变,重复采集自动跳过)
+                        if record_id not in bronze_written:
+                            bronze_written.add(record_id)
+                            await _write_events_bronze(
+                                db,
+                                source_record_id=record_id,
+                                raw_payload=raw,
+                                target_match_id=existing_match.id,
+                                league_code=code,
+                                match_status=nm.match_status,
+                                batch_id=bronze_batch_id,
+                            )
+
+            # 注意: 不在此处 commit,由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制事务
+            result["leagues"][code] = league_r
+            result["total_inserted"] += league_r["inserted"]
+            result["total_updated"] += league_r["updated"]
+        return result
+
+
+def _events_record_id(league_code: str, nm, raw: dict) -> str:
+    """events 载荷的 RawEvent 幂等键。
+
+    优先用上游 event id;缺失时用 (league:home:away:date) 合成稳定键 ——
+    取 normalize 后的队名与天级日期(与 _match_key 同口径),不依赖 DB 自增 id,
+    保证同一来源比赛重复采集时命中同一条 RawEvent,不产生重复原始载荷。
+    """
+    eid = _to_int_or_none(raw.get("id"))
+    if eid is not None:
+        return str(eid)
+    d = _to_date(nm.date)
+    date_part = d.isoformat() if d is not None else "na"
+    return f"{league_code}:{nm.home_team}:{nm.away_team}:{date_part}"
+
+
+async def _write_events_bronze(
+    db,
+    *,
+    source_record_id: str,
+    raw_payload: dict,
+    target_match_id: int | None,
+    league_code: str,
+    match_status: str | None,
+    batch_id: str,
+) -> None:
+    """events 成功插入/更新单场比赛后的 Bronze 层补写:RawEvent(幂等) + DataLineage。
+
+    D1(工程债):此前只有 stats 回填写 RawEvent/Lineage,events 管线作为比赛
+    主数据的唯一入口反而不留溯源记录。幂等性由 _write_raw_event 的
+    source_record_id 查重保证;best-effort:基础设施写入失败只记 warning,
+    绝不拖垮采集主流程(与 _safe_write_ingest_failure 同级约束)。
+    """
+    try:
+        await _write_raw_event(db, "bzzoiro", source_record_id, raw_payload, batch_id)
+        await _write_lineage(
+            db, "bzzoiro", source_record_id,
+            "matches", target_match_id, "events_ingest",
+            {"league": league_code, "match_status": match_status},
+            batch_id,
+        )
+    except Exception:
+        logger.warning(
+            "events Bronze 写入失败(record=%s, match=%s),不影响采集主流程",
+            source_record_id, target_match_id, exc_info=True,
+        )

src/data/bzzoiro_standings.py

@@ -0,0 +1,207 @@
+"""bzzoiro standings 管线:联赛积分榜快照(/leagues/{id}/standings/)→ standings 表。
+
+从 bzzoiro.py 拆出。同一联赛同一赛季只保留最新快照(按 (league, season, team)
+upsert);球队名与 events 管线使用同一 normalize 规则,保证 Team 匹配。
+
+可替换协作者(抓取函数 / Bronze 写入助手)在运行期经聚合门面
+src.data.bzzoiro 解析 —— 与拆分前的单文件 monkeypatch 语义一致。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+from collections.abc import Iterable
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+
+from src.data.bzzoiro_common import _to_float_or_none, _to_int_or_none
+from src.data.config import BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS, LEAGUE_COUNTRIES, LEAGUE_NAMES
+from src.data.pipeline_write import _safe_write_ingest_failure, _write_lineage, _write_raw_event
+from src.data.team_names_zh import zh_name
+from src.db.models import Standing, Team
+from src.db.repositories import LeagueRepository, TeamRepository
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+async def fetch_bzzoiro_standings(league_code: str, season: str | None = None) -> dict:
+    """抓取联赛积分榜(纯抓取,不入库)。season 为 None 时取当前赛季。"""
+    from src.data import bzzoiro as bz
+
+    league_id = BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS.get(league_code)
+    if league_id is None:
+        raise ValueError(f"未知联赛代码: {league_code}")
+    params: dict = {}
+    if season:
+        params["season"] = season
+
+    return await bz._fetch_json_async(f"/leagues/{league_id}/standings/", params)
+
+
+def _season_label_from_dates(start_date, end_date) -> str:
+    """从赛季起止日期推导赛季标签(与 derive_season_label 语义一致)。"""
+    try:
+        if isinstance(start_date, str):
+            start = datetime.fromisoformat(start_date[:10])
+        else:
+            start = start_date
+        if start is None:
+            return "?"
+        y = start.year
+        return f"{y}-{y + 1}" if start.month >= 8 else f"{y - 1}-{y}"
+    except (TypeError, ValueError):
+        return "?"
+
+
+async def ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, *, leagues: Iterable[str], season: str | None = None) -> dict:
+    """采集积分榜 → upsert standings 表。
+
+    season 为 None 时采集当前赛季(bzzoiro 默认返回 is_current 赛季)。
+    球队名与 events 管线使用同一 normalize 规则,保证 Team 匹配。
+    """
+    from src.data.team_names import normalize as normalize_name
+
+    from src.data import bzzoiro as bz
+
+    result: dict = {"leagues": {}, "total_upserted": 0, "errors": []}
+    for code in leagues:
+        league_r: dict = {"upserted": 0, "teams_created": 0, "rows": 0, "errors": []}
+        try:
+            payload = await bz.fetch_bzzoiro_standings(code, season=season)
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.exception("bzzoiro standings fetch failed for %s", code)
+            league_r["errors"].append(str(e))
+            await _safe_write_ingest_failure(
+                db,
+                entity_type="standings",
+                source_record_id=None,
+                error=e,
+                raw_payload={"league": code, "season": season},
+            )
+            result["leagues"][code] = league_r
+            result["errors"].append(f"{code}: {e}")
+            continue
+
+        rows = payload.get("standings") or []
+        if not rows:
+            result["leagues"][code] = {"error": "无积分榜数据(赛季未开始或未提供)"}
+            result["errors"].append(f"{code}: 无积分榜数据")
+            continue
+
+        # 联赛(get-or-create,D4: 经 LeagueRepository)
+        league = await LeagueRepository(db).get_or_create(
+            code, LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code), LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code)
+        )
+        team_r = TeamRepository(db)
+
+        # 赛季标签:优先用返回的 season 对象推导
+        season_obj = payload.get("season") or {}
+        season_label = _season_label_from_dates(
+            season_obj.get("start_date"), season_obj.get("end_date")
+        )
+        if season_label == "?":
+            season_label = season or ""
+
+        # 批量预载球队(与 events 管线使用同一 normalize 规则,保证 Team 匹配)
+        names = {normalize_name(str(r.get("team_name", ""))) for r in rows}
+        names.discard("")
+        team_map: dict[str, Team] = await team_r.get_all_by_names(list(names))
+
+        now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+        for r in rows:
+            team_name = normalize_name(str(r.get("team_name", "")))
+            if not team_name:
+                continue
+            team = team_map.get(team_name)
+            if team is None:
+                team = await team_r.get_or_create(team_name, name_zh=zh_name(team_name))
+                team_map[team_name] = team
+                league_r["teams_created"] += 1
+
+            zone = r.get("zone") or {}
+            values = dict(
+                position=_to_int_or_none(r.get("position")) or 0,
+                played=_to_int_or_none(r.get("played")) or 0,
+                won=_to_int_or_none(r.get("won")) or 0,
+                drawn=_to_int_or_none(r.get("drawn")) or 0,
+                lost=_to_int_or_none(r.get("lost")) or 0,
+                goals_for=_to_int_or_none(r.get("gf")) or 0,
+                goals_against=_to_int_or_none(r.get("ga")) or 0,
+                goal_diff=_to_int_or_none(r.get("gd")) or 0,
+                points=_to_int_or_none(r.get("pts")) or 0,
+                xg_for=_to_float_or_none(r.get("xgf")),
+                xg_against=_to_float_or_none(r.get("xga")),
+                form=r.get("form") or None,
+                zone=zone.get("label") or zone.get("key") or None,
+                updated_at=now,
+                retrieved_at=now,
+            )
+
+            # P0-02: 追加快照——每次采集 INSERT 新行(available_at=now),
+            # ON CONFLICT (league, season, team, available_at) DO NOTHING。
+            standing = Standing(
+                league_id=league.id, season=season_label, team_id=team.id, available_at=now, **values
+            )
+            db.add(standing)
+            league_r["upserted"] += 1
+
+        league_r["rows"] = len(rows)
+
+        # D1(对称 events/stats 管线): 联赛成功 upsert → 补写 Bronze 层。
+        # 幂等键 standings:{league}:{season}:积分榜是联赛级快照,一次成功
+        # 采集写一条 RawEvent(整份原始载荷)+ 一条血缘。season 用实际入库的
+        # 标签(由载荷推导,与 Standing.season 同口径),不依赖调用方传参,
+        # 保证不同调用方(season=None 或显式传参)对同一赛季命中同一条 RawEvent。
+        if league_r["upserted"] > 0:
+            bronze_batch_id = f"bzzoiro-standings-{code}-{now:%Y%m%d%H%M%S}"
+            await _write_standings_bronze(
+                db,
+                source_record_id=f"standings:{code}:{season_label}",
+                raw_payload=payload,
+                league_id=league.id,
+                league_code=code,
+                season_label=season_label,
+                rows_upserted=league_r["upserted"],
+                batch_id=bronze_batch_id,
+            )
+
+        result["leagues"][code] = league_r
+        result["total_upserted"] += league_r["upserted"]
+        logger.info(
+            "bzzoiro standings 采集完成: %s 赛季 %s, upsert %d/%d",
+            code, season_label, league_r["upserted"], league_r["rows"],
+        )
+    return result
+
+
+async def _write_standings_bronze(
+    db,
+    *,
+    source_record_id: str,
+    raw_payload: dict,
+    league_id: int | None,
+    league_code: str,
+    season_label: str,
+    rows_upserted: int,
+    batch_id: str,
+) -> None:
+    """standings 成功 upsert 一个联赛后的 Bronze 层补写:RawEvent(幂等) + DataLineage。
+
+    与 _write_events_bronze 同级约束:幂等性由 _write_raw_event 的
+    source_record_id 查重保证(积分榜是联赛级快照,同联赛同赛季重复采集
+    命中同一条 RawEvent);best-effort:基础设施写入失败只记 warning,
+    绝不拖垮采集主流程。
+    """
+    try:
+        await _write_raw_event(db, "bzzoiro", source_record_id, raw_payload, batch_id)
+        await _write_lineage(
+            db, "bzzoiro", source_record_id,
+            "standings", league_id, "standings_ingest",
+            {"league": league_code, "season": season_label, "rows_upserted": rows_upserted},
+            batch_id,
+        )
+    except Exception:
+        logger.warning(
+            "standings Bronze 写入失败(record=%s, league=%s),不影响采集主流程",
+            source_record_id, league_code, exc_info=True,
+        )

src/data/bzzoiro_stats.py

@@ -0,0 +1,181 @@
+"""bzzoiro stats 回填管线:已完赛比赛详细统计(/events/{id}/stats/)→ match_stats 表。
+
+从 bzzoiro.py 拆出。上游限速(REQUEST_INTERVAL 秒/请求),大批量回填需分次触发;
+只 add/flush 不 commit,事务由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制。
+
+可替换协作者(_fetch_json_async / Bronze 写入助手 / REQUEST_INTERVAL)在运行期
+经聚合门面 src.data.bzzoiro 解析 —— 与拆分前的单文件 monkeypatch 语义一致。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import asyncio
+import logging
+from collections.abc import Iterable
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
+
+from src.data.bzzoiro_common import _to_float_or_none, _to_int_or_none
+from src.data.config import BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS
+from src.data.pipeline_write import _safe_write_ingest_failure, _write_lineage, _write_raw_event
+from src.db.models import MatchStats
+from src.db.repositories import MatchRepository
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+# bzzoiro stats 字段 → MatchStats 字段映射(stats.home / stats.away 下)
+_STATS_FIELD_MAP = {
+    "xg": ("home_xg", "away_xg"),                    # 回退 expected_goals
+    "ball_possession": ("home_possession", None),     # 只取主队值,客队=100-home
+    "total_shots": ("home_shots", "away_shots"),
+    "shots_on_target": ("home_shots_on_target", "away_shots_on_target"),
+    "corner_kicks": ("home_corners", "away_corners"),
+    "yellow_cards": ("home_yellow_cards", "away_yellow_cards"),
+    "red_cards": ("home_red_cards", "away_red_cards"),
+    "big_chances": ("home_big_chances", "away_big_chances"),
+    "fouls": ("home_fouls", "away_fouls"),
+}
+
+
+def _pick(d: dict, *keys):
+    """按优先级取第一个非空字段值。"""
+    for k in keys:
+        v = d.get(k)
+        if v is not None:
+            return v
+    return None
+
+
+def _stats_from_payload(payload: dict) -> dict:
+    """把 /events/{id}/stats/ 响应映射成 MatchStats 字段 dict。
+
+    响应结构: {"event_id": ..., "stats": {"home": {...}, "away": {...}}}
+    """
+    stats = (payload or {}).get("stats") or {}
+    home = stats.get("home") or {}
+    away = stats.get("away") or {}
+    out: dict = {}
+
+    xg_h = _pick(home, "xg", "expected_goals")
+    xg_a = _pick(away, "xg", "expected_goals")
+    if xg_h is not None:
+        out["home_xg"] = _to_float_or_none(xg_h)
+    if xg_a is not None:
+        out["away_xg"] = _to_float_or_none(xg_a)
+
+    poss = home.get("ball_possession")
+    if poss is not None:
+        p = _to_float_or_none(poss)
+        if p is not None:
+            out["home_possession"] = p
+
+    for src, (h_fld, a_fld) in _STATS_FIELD_MAP.items():
+        if src in ("xg", "ball_possession"):
+            continue  # 已处理
+        hv = home.get(src)
+        av = away.get(src)
+        if hv is not None and h_fld:
+            out[h_fld] = _to_int_or_none(hv)
+        if av is not None and a_fld:
+            out[a_fld] = _to_int_or_none(av)
+    return out
+
+
+async def ingest_bzzoiro_event_stats(
+    db,
+    *,
+    leagues: Iterable[str],
+    limit: int = 100,
+    only_missing: bool = True,
+) -> dict:
+    """回填已完赛比赛的详细统计(逐场调 /events/{id}/stats/)。
+
+    筛选条件: match_status=finished 且 source_event_id 非空。
+    only_missing=True 时跳过已有统计的比赛(增量);False 则全量刷新。
+    limit 控制单次最多处理的比赛数(上游限速约 1.2s/请求,大批量需分次触发)。
+    """
+    from src.data import bzzoiro as bz
+
+    result: dict = {"fetched": 0, "created": 0, "updated": 0, "skipped": 0, "errors": []}
+
+    league_ids = [BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS[c] for c in leagues if c in BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS]
+    if not league_ids:
+        result["errors"].append("无有效联赛代码")
+        return result
+
+    # D4: 候选比赛查询经 MatchRepository(含 stats 预加载,筛选/排序/limit 语义不变)
+    matches = await MatchRepository(db).find_finished_with_stats(
+        league_ids, limit=limit * 3 if only_missing else limit
+    )
+
+    now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+    processed = 0
+    for m in matches:
+        if processed >= limit:
+            break
+        if only_missing and m.stats is not None and m.stats.home_shots is not None:
+            result["skipped"] += 1
+            continue
+        processed += 1
+        try:
+            payload = await bz._fetch_json_async(f"/events/{m.source_event_id}/stats/")
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.warning("stats fetch failed match=%s event=%s: %s", m.id, m.source_event_id, e)
+            result["errors"].append(f"match {m.id}: {e}")
+            await _safe_write_ingest_failure(
+                db,
+                entity_type="match_stats",
+                source_record_id=str(m.source_event_id),
+                error=e,
+                raw_payload={"match_id": m.id},
+            )
+            await asyncio.sleep(bz.REQUEST_INTERVAL)
+            continue
+
+        result["fetched"] += 1
+        fields = _stats_from_payload(payload)
+        if not fields:
+            result["skipped"] += 1
+            await asyncio.sleep(bz.REQUEST_INTERVAL)
+            continue
+
+        if m.stats is None:
+            available_at = m.match_date + timedelta(hours=2) if m.match_date else now
+            m.stats = MatchStats(
+                match_id=m.id,
+                source="bzzoiro",
+                source_record_id=str(m.source_event_id),
+                retrieved_at=now,
+                available_at=available_at,
+            )
+            db.add(m.stats)
+            result["created"] += 1
+        else:
+            result["updated"] += 1
+            if m.stats.source is None:
+                m.stats.source = "bzzoiro"
+                m.stats.source_record_id = str(m.source_event_id)
+            if m.stats.retrieved_at is None:
+                m.stats.retrieved_at = now
+            if m.stats.available_at is None and m.match_date:
+                m.stats.available_at = m.match_date + timedelta(hours=2)
+
+        for fld, v in fields.items():
+            if hasattr(m.stats, fld):
+                setattr(m.stats, fld, v)
+
+        # 管线基础设施:写入 RawEvent + DataLineage
+        batch_id = f"bzzoiro-stats-{m.source_event_id}-{now.strftime('%Y%m%d%H%M%S')}"
+        try:
+            await _write_raw_event(db, "bzzoiro", str(m.source_event_id), payload, batch_id)
+            await _write_lineage(db, "bzzoiro", str(m.source_event_id), "match_stats", m.stats.id if m.stats else None, "stats_backfill", {"match_id": m.id}, batch_id)
+        except Exception:
+            pass  # 基础设施写入失败不影响主流程
+
+        await asyncio.sleep(bz.REQUEST_INTERVAL)
+
+    logger.info(
+        "bzzoiro stats 回填完成: 抓取 %d, 新建 %d, 更新 %d, 跳过 %d, 错误 %d",
+        result["fetched"], result["created"], result["updated"],
+        result["skipped"], len(result["errors"]),
+    )
+    return result

src/data/normalize.py

@@ -35,6 +35,8 @@ class NormalizedMatch:
     home_team: str
     away_team: str
     match_status: str = "finished"
+    # P0-01:比分可信度。known=可靠比分;missing=完赛缺分;unknown=待定。
+    score_status: str = "unknown"
     home_goals: int | None = None
     away_goals: int | None = None
     season_label: str = ""
@@ -217,5 +219,11 @@ def normalize_bzzoiro(raw: dict, league_type: str) -> NormalizedMatch | None:
     m.away_red_cards = _to_int(raw.get("away_red_cards", raw.get("red_cards_away")))
 
     if m.match_status == "finished" and m.home_goals is None:
-        m.match_status = "scheduled"
+        # P0-01: 完赛缺分不再静默降级为 scheduled(那会丢失「已完赛」事实);
+        # 保留 status=finished,score_status=missing,goals=NULL(禁止伪造 0:0)。
+        m.score_status = "missing"
+    elif m.home_goals is not None and m.away_goals is not None:
+        m.score_status = "known"
+    else:
+        m.score_status = "unknown"
     return m

src/data/pipeline_write.py

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+"""管线基础设施写入助手:RawEvent(Bronze 原始载荷)/ IngestFailure(死信)/ DataLineage(血缘)。
+
+从 bzzoiro.py 拆出。约定(与拆分前一致):
+  - 只 add 不 commit —— 事务由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制,分批事务约定不变;
+  - 死信与 Bronze 写入同为 best-effort:失败只记 warning,绝不拖垮采集主流程。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+
+from src.db.models import DataLineage, IngestFailure, RawEvent
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+async def _write_raw_event(db, source_system: str, source_record_id: str, raw_payload: dict, batch_id: str | None = None) -> None:
+    """写入 Bronze 层原始事件(幂等:同 source_record_id 跳过)。"""
+    from sqlalchemy import select as _select
+    stmt = _select(RawEvent).where(
+        RawEvent.source_system == source_system,
+        RawEvent.source_record_id == source_record_id,
+    )
+    existing = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
+    if existing is None:
+        db.add(RawEvent(
+            source_system=source_system,
+            source_record_id=source_record_id,
+            raw_payload=raw_payload,
+            ingest_batch_id=batch_id,
+        ))
+
+
+async def _write_ingest_failure(db, source_system: str, entity_type: str, source_record_id: str | None, error_type: str, error_detail: str | None, raw_payload: dict | None = None) -> None:
+    """写入采集失败死信。"""
+    db.add(IngestFailure(
+        source_system=source_system,
+        entity_type=entity_type,
+        source_record_id=source_record_id,
+        error_type=error_type,
+        error_detail=error_detail,
+        raw_payload=raw_payload,
+    ))
+
+
+async def _safe_write_ingest_failure(
+    db,
+    *,
+    entity_type: str,
+    source_record_id: str | None,
+    error: Exception,
+    raw_payload: dict | None = None,
+) -> None:
+    """抓取失败时尽力写入死信表(失败不影响主流程)。
+
+    死信是「可观测性」基础设施,与 RawEvent/Lineage 同级:写入失败只记
+    warning,绝不能让原始抓取错误之外的新异常打断采集循环。
+    """
+    try:
+        await _write_ingest_failure(
+            db, "bzzoiro", entity_type, source_record_id,
+            "fetch_error", str(error), raw_payload,
+        )
+    except Exception:
+        logger.warning(
+            "写入 ingest_failures 死信失败(entity=%s, record=%s): %s",
+            entity_type, source_record_id, error, exc_info=True,
+        )
+
+
+async def _write_lineage(db, source_system: str, source_record_id: str, target_table: str, target_id: int | None, transform_name: str, transform_detail: dict | None = None, batch_id: str | None = None) -> None:
+    """写入 ETL 血缘追踪。"""
+    db.add(DataLineage(
+        source_system=source_system,
+        source_record_id=source_record_id,
+        target_table=target_table,
+        target_id=target_id,
+        transform_name=transform_name,
+        transform_detail=transform_detail,
+        batch_id=batch_id,
+    ))

src/db/base.py

@@ -68,25 +68,6 @@ async def short_read():
         yield session
 
 
-@asynccontextmanager
-async def short_write():
-    """短生命周期 write session: 提交后立即释放。
-
-    用法:
-        async with short_write() as session:
-            session.add(pred)
-            await session.commit()
-        # session 已关闭,连接已释放
-    """
-    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as session:
-        try:
-            yield session
-            await session.commit()
-        except Exception:
-            await session.rollback()
-            raise
-
-
 async def init_db() -> None:
     """验证数据库连接(不建表)。
 

src/db/models.py

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@ from sqlalchemy import (
     String,
     Text,
     UniqueConstraint,
+    column,
     func,
 )
 from sqlalchemy.dialects.postgresql import JSONB
@@ -56,6 +57,22 @@ class Team(Base):
     away_matches: Mapped[list["Match"]] = relationship(foreign_keys="Match.away_team_id", back_populates="away_team")
 
 
+class TeamAlias(Base):
+    """球队别名:同一球队的不同写法(大小写/译名/缩写)映射到归一后的 teams.id。
+
+    入库流程(get_or_create):normalize(name) → 查 teams.name → 查 team_aliases
+    → 都没有再 insert 新 Team。别名不自动合并历史重复队,需显式添加。
+    alias_normalized 为 normalize(别名)后的稳定幂等键,用作 PK 避免重复插入。
+    """
+    __tablename__ = "team_aliases"
+
+    # normalize(别名)后的值,稳定幂等,用作主键
+    alias_normalized: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(120), primary_key=True)
+    team_id: Mapped[int] = mapped_column(ForeignKey("teams.id", ondelete="CASCADE"), nullable=False)
+    original_alias: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(120), nullable=False)  # 原始写法(保留供参考)
+    created_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=_utcnow)
+
+
 class Match(Base):
     __tablename__ = "matches"
 
@@ -72,6 +89,9 @@ class Match(Base):
         index=True,
     )
     match_status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(20), default="scheduled")
+    # P0-01:比分可信度标记。known=有可靠比分;missing=完赛但缺分(保留 NULL 不伪造 0:0);
+    # unknown=待定(无比分且未确认完赛)。禁止把缺分写成 0:0。
+    score_status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(20), server_default="unknown", nullable=False)
     home_goals: Mapped[int | None] = mapped_column(Integer)
     away_goals: Mapped[int | None] = mapped_column(Integer)
     home_ht_goals: Mapped[int | None] = mapped_column(Integer)
@@ -111,10 +131,19 @@ class Match(Base):
             "match_date_date",
             unique=True,
         ),
-        # DB-5: 数据库级约束 — 已完赛比赛必须有比分
+        # P0-01:比分可信度约束(替代原 ck_matches_finished_has_score):
+        #   - score_status=known → 必须有比分(非 NULL)
+        #   - score_status=missing → 必须 NULL(完赛缺分,禁止伪造 0:0)
+        #   - score_status=unknown → 必须 NULL
         CheckConstraint(
-            "match_status <> 'finished' OR (home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)",
-            name="ck_matches_finished_has_score",
+            "score_status IN ('known', 'missing', 'unknown')",
+            name="ck_matches_score_status_enum",
+        ),
+        CheckConstraint(
+            "match_status <> 'finished'"
+            " OR (score_status = 'known' AND home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)"
+            " OR (score_status IN ('missing', 'unknown') AND home_goals IS NULL AND away_goals IS NULL)",
+            name="ck_matches_score_integrity",
         ),
         CheckConstraint(
             "match_status IN ('finished', 'scheduled', 'in_play', 'paused', 'postponed', 'cancelled', 'suspended')",
@@ -176,8 +205,11 @@ class MatchStats(Base):
 class Standing(Base):
     """联赛积分榜快照(bzzoiro /leagues/{id}/standings/)。
 
-    同一联赛同一赛季只保留最新快照:重新采集时按 (league_id, season, team_id)
-    upsert。zone 来自 bzzoiro 分区(如 champions_league / europa_league / relegation)。
+    P0-02: 改为追加快照(append-only)。每次采集 INSERT 新行,available_at=now;
+    查询取 available_at<=cutoff 的每队最新快照(DISTINCT ON team_id ORDER available_at DESC)。
+    回测时可还原任意历史时刻的榜单,不再只是"最新快照、忽略 cutoff"。
+    同一 (league_id, season, team_id, available_at) 唯一,ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING。
+    zone 来自 bzzoiro 分区(如 champions_league / europa_league / relegation)。
     """
     __tablename__ = "standings"
 
@@ -200,13 +232,17 @@ class Standing(Base):
     zone: Mapped[str | None] = mapped_column(String(50))  # champions_league / relegation 等
     updated_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=_utcnow, onupdate=_utcnow)
     retrieved_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), default=_utcnow)
+    # P0-02: 快照可用时间(采集时间),唯一键组成部分 + cutoff 过滤依据
+    available_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=False, default=_utcnow)
 
     league: Mapped[League] = relationship()
     team: Mapped[Team] = relationship(lazy="selectin")
 
     __table_args__ = (
-        UniqueConstraint("league_id", "season", "team_id", name="uq_standings_league_season_team"),
+        # P0-02: (league, season, team, available_at) 唯一,支持追加快照 + ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING
+        UniqueConstraint("league_id", "season", "team_id", "available_at", name="uq_standings_league_season_team_available"),
         Index("ix_standings_league_season_pos", "league_id", "season", "position"),
+        Index("ix_standings_league_season_team_available", "league_id", "season", "team_id", "available_at"),
     )
 
 
@@ -254,14 +290,13 @@ class Prediction(Base):
     match: Mapped[Match] = relationship(back_populates="predictions")
 
     __table_args__ = (
-        # Fix: 唯一约束增加 mode + run_type,允许 live 与 backtest 共存
-        # 防止回测覆盖未结算的实盘预测(后续 settle 会污染评估数据)
-        UniqueConstraint(
-            "match_id", "provider", "model", "mode", "run_type",
-            name="uq_predictions_match_provider_model_mode_run_type",
+        # P0-03: 幂等指纹——input_hash 非空时唯一(同指纹→返回已有行,不 UPDATE/INSERT);
+        # 兼容旧数据 NULL input_hash(不强制回填)。
+        Index(
+            "ix_predictions_input_hash_unique", "input_hash", unique=True,
+            postgresql_where=column("input_hash").isnot(None),
         ),
         Index("ix_predictions_match", "match_id"),
-        Index("ix_predictions_provider_model", "provider", "model"),
         # 数据截止时间过滤查询用(按 prediction_cutoff_at 取「赛前已生成」的预测)
         Index("ix_predictions_cutoff_at", "prediction_cutoff_at"),
         # 数据库级约束:最后一道防线
@@ -324,6 +359,35 @@ class RawEvent(Base):
     )
 
 
+class IngestJob(Base):
+    """采集任务状态:跟踪每次触后台采集任务的执行进度与结果。
+
+    POST /api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro 触发时写入(pending→running→success/failed),
+    前端 Collection 页据此轮询到终态,替代此前"30 秒后盲标完成"的模拟。
+    分批 get_uow / BzzoiroSource / IngestFailure / Bronze/Lineage 均不受影响
+    (本表仅作状态追踪,不介入采集事务)。
+    """
+    __tablename__ = "ingest_jobs"
+
+    id: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(36), primary_key=True)  # uuid4
+    task: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(20), nullable=False)
+    params: Mapped[dict] = mapped_column(JSONB, nullable=False, default=dict)
+    status: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(20), nullable=False, server_default="pending")
+    result: Mapped[dict | None] = mapped_column(JSONB)
+    error: Mapped[str | None] = mapped_column(Text)
+    created_at: Mapped[datetime] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=func.now())
+    started_at: Mapped[datetime | None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
+    finished_at: Mapped[datetime | None] = mapped_column(DateTime(timezone=True))
+
+    __table_args__ = (
+        Index("ix_ingest_job_status_created", "status", "created_at"),
+        CheckConstraint(
+            "status IN ('pending', 'running', 'success', 'failed')",
+            name="ck_ingest_job_status",
+        ),
+    )
+
+
 class IngestFailure(Base):
     """采集失败死信:记录失败原因、重试次数与下次重试时间。
 

src/db/repositories.py

@@ -5,6 +5,10 @@ Repository 只负责查询,不负责事务提交。
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+import logging
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
 from datetime import datetime
 from sqlalchemy import select
 from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
@@ -76,6 +80,20 @@ class MatchRepository:
         )
         return (await self._session.execute(stmt)).scalars().all()
 
+    async def find_by_source_event_id(self, source_event_id: int) -> Match | None:
+        """按上游 event id 查找比赛(唯一命中,用于 upsert 优先路径)。
+
+        source_event_id 上有 partial unique 索引(WHERE IS NOT NULL),
+        同联赛同主客同天(自然键)与上游 event_id 共同保障同一场比赛
+        重复采集时 upsert 而非插入重复行。
+        """
+        stmt = (
+            select(Match)
+            .options(selectinload(Match.stats))
+            .where(Match.source_event_id == source_event_id)
+        )
+        return (await self._session.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
+
     async def find_finished_with_stats(self, league_ids: list[int], *, limit: int) -> list[Match]:
         """已完赛且有上游 event id 的比赛(按日期倒序),供统计回填逐场拉取。
 
@@ -108,14 +126,61 @@ class TeamRepository:
         return (await self._session.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
 
     async def get_or_create(self, name: str, *, name_zh: str | None = None) -> Team:
-        """按名获取球队,不存在则创建(name_zh 供 bzzoiro 管线写中文名)。"""
-        team = await self.get_by_name(name)
-        if team is None:
-            team = Team(name=name, name_zh=name_zh)
+        """按名获取球队,不存在则创建(name_zh 供 bzzoiro 管线写中文名)。
+
+        归一化咽喉 + 别名查找,三步定位:
+          1) normalize(name) → 查 teams.name
+          2) 查 team_aliases(以 normalize(name) 为幂等键)→ 复用已映射的 teams.id
+          3) 都没有 → insert 新 Team(归一名)
+        创建新 Team 时 info 打出原始名与归一后的规范名,便于排查重名。
+        不自动合并历史重复队;需显式添加别名。
+        """
+        from src.data.team_names import normalize as normalize_name
+        from src.db.models import TeamAlias
+
+        normalized = normalize_name(name) or name.strip()
+
+        # 1) 归一名直查 teams
+        team = await self.get_by_name(normalized)
+        if team is not None:
+            return team
+
+        # 2) 别名查找:normalize(别名) 作为幂等键,命中即复用已有 Team
+        alias = await self._session.get(TeamAlias, normalized)
+        if alias is not None:
+            team = await self._session.get(Team, alias.team_id)
+            if team is not None:
+                logger.info("Team 别名命中: %s -> %s(已有 id=%s)", name, normalized, team.id)
+                return team
+
+        # 3) 新建 Team(归一名)
+        logger.info("创建新 Team: %s -> %s", name, normalized)
+        team = Team(name=normalized, name_zh=name_zh)
         self._session.add(team)
         await self._session.flush()
         return team
 
+    async def add_alias(self, alias: str, team_id: int) -> TeamAlias:
+        """为已有 Team 添加别名。
+
+        幂等:以 normalize(alias) 为 PK,重复添加同一别名会 upsert。
+        不自动合并历史重复队,仅建立别名映射。
+        """
+        from src.data.team_names import normalize as normalize_name
+        from src.db.models import TeamAlias
+
+        normalized = normalize_name(alias) or alias.strip()
+        existing = await self._session.get(TeamAlias, normalized)
+        if existing is not None:
+            existing.team_id = team_id  # 允许重新指向
+            existing.original_alias = alias
+            await self._session.flush()
+            return existing
+        row = TeamAlias(alias_normalized=normalized, team_id=team_id, original_alias=alias)
+        self._session.add(row)
+        await self._session.flush()
+        return row
+
     async def get_all_by_names(self, names: list[str]) -> dict[str, Team]:
         """批量获取球队,返回 name → Team 映射。"""
         if not names:
@@ -150,17 +215,3 @@ class LeagueRepository:
     async def add(self, league: League) -> None:
         self._session.add(league)
         await self._session.flush()
-
-
-class PredictionRepository:
-    """预测记录数据访问。"""
-
-    def __init__(self, session: AsyncSession) -> None:
-        self._session = session
-
-    async def get_by_id(self, prediction_id: int) -> Prediction | None:
-        return await self._session.get(Prediction, prediction_id)
-
-    async def add(self, prediction: Prediction) -> None:
-        self._session.add(prediction)
-        await self._session.flush()

src/llm/agents/orchestrator.py

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ from src.core.config import settings
 from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
 from src.db.models import Match, Prediction
 from src.db.unit_of_work import get_uow
-from src.llm.predict import PredictResult, _upsert_prediction
+from src.llm.predict import PredictResult, _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint
 from src.llm.agents.base import AgentReport, AgentSpec, load_agent_prompt
 from src.llm.context_builder import (
     MatchHeader,
@@ -285,10 +285,13 @@ async def predict_match_multi(
 
     latency_ms = int((time.perf_counter() - start) * 1000)
 
-    # 3.5 计算输入 hash(基于终裁报告)
-    input_hash = hashlib.sha256(
-        _reports_to_json(reports).encode("utf-8")
-    ).hexdigest()
+    # P0-03: 指纹输入——终裁报告 hash 作 context_hash,专家列表作 agent_ids
+    reports_json = _reports_to_json(reports)
+    context_hash = hashlib.sha256(reports_json.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
+    agent_ids = sorted([r.agent for r in reports]) if reports else []
+    # 终裁模板 hash(规范:复用 prompt 版本 + 终裁 system prompt)
+    prompt_hash = hashlib.sha256(f"multi_{version}".encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
+    system_prompt_hash = hashlib.sha256(AGGREGATOR_SYSTEM.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
 
     # 4. 存库(使用 UnitOfWork)
     async with get_uow() as session:
@@ -315,15 +318,20 @@ async def predict_match_multi(
             pred_status = "degraded"
             model_name = aggregator_model
 
-        pred = await _upsert_prediction(
+        pred = await _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(
             session,
-            match_id=match_id,
-            provider_name=settings.LLM_PROVIDER,
-            model=model_name,
-            mode="multi",
-            run_type="backtest" if backtest else "live",
             values={
+                "match_id": match_id,
+                "provider": settings.LLM_PROVIDER,
+                "model": model_name,
+                "mode": "multi",
+                "run_type": "backtest" if backtest else "live",
                 "prompt_version": f"multi_{version}",
+                "prompt_hash": prompt_hash,
+                "system_prompt_hash": system_prompt_hash,
+                "temperature": 0.2,
+                "context_hash": context_hash,
+                "agent_ids": agent_ids,
                 "prompt_tokens": sum(r.prompt_tokens or 0 for r in reports) + agg_prompt_tokens,
                 "completion_tokens": sum(r.completion_tokens or 0 for r in reports) + agg_completion_tokens,
                 "latency_ms": latency_ms,
@@ -341,7 +349,6 @@ async def predict_match_multi(
                 "match_kickoff_at": match_kickoff_at,
                 "prediction_cutoff_at": prediction_cutoff_at,
                 "prediction_created_at": now,
-                "input_hash": input_hash,
             },
         )
 

src/llm/backtest.py

@@ -130,6 +130,7 @@ async def _get_historical_matches(
             selectinload(Match.away_team),
         )
         .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        .where(Match.score_status == "known")
         .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
         .where(Match.away_goals.is_not(None))
     )

src/llm/baseline.py

@@ -5,14 +5,15 @@
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+import hashlib
 import logging
-from datetime import datetime
+from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone
 
 from sqlalchemy import case, func, select
 
 from src.db.base import AsyncSession, AsyncSessionLocal
 from src.db.models import Match
-from src.llm.predict import PredictResult
+from src.llm.predict import PredictResult, _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
@@ -58,19 +59,23 @@ async def predict_baseline(
 
     返回 PredictResult(D2 统一结果类型):
       provider=model="baseline", 不调用 LLM,latency_ms≈0。
-    prediction_id 为占位 0 —— baseline 不在服务层落库,
-    由路由层 _persist_baseline 落库后取得真实 id。
+
+    P3-2:baseline 落库下沉到服务层 —— 直接在服务层完成落库并回填真实
+    prediction_id,路由层不再需要特殊的 _persist_baseline,与 single/multi
+    路径统一(result.prediction_id 即可用)。对外 JSON 不变。
     """
+    from src.db.unit_of_work import get_uow
+
     async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
         match = await db.get(Match, match_id)
         if match is None:
             raise ValueError(f"match {match_id} not found")
 
         before = None
-        if backtest and match.match_dt:
+        if backtest and match.match_date:
             from datetime import timedelta
 
-            before = match.match_dt - timedelta(days=1)
+            before = match.match_date - timedelta(days=1)
         elif cutoff_at is not None:
             before = cutoff_at
 
@@ -93,8 +98,45 @@ async def predict_baseline(
     else:
         pred_1x2 = "X"
 
+    # P0-03: 基线指纹——基于主客场场均进球数据(context_hash) + 截止时间
+    context_hash = hashlib.sha256(
+        f"{home_avg:.4f}:{away_avg:.4f}:{before.isoformat() if before else 'none'}".encode("utf-8")
+    ).hexdigest()
+
+    values = {
+        "match_id": match_id,
+        "provider": "baseline",
+        "model": "baseline",
+        "mode": "baseline",
+        "run_type": "live",
+        "prompt_version": "baseline_v1",
+        "prompt_hash": hashlib.sha256(b"baseline_v1").hexdigest(),
+        "system_prompt_hash": hashlib.sha256(b"baseline").hexdigest(),
+        "temperature": 0.0,
+        "context_hash": context_hash,
+        "agent_ids": [],
+        "prompt_tokens": 0,
+        "completion_tokens": 0,
+        "latency_ms": 0,
+        "pred_home_goals": float(pred_home),
+        "pred_away_goals": float(pred_away),
+        "pred_1x2": pred_1x2,
+        "subjective_confidence": 0.5,
+        "reasoning": (
+            f"基线估计(非投注建议): 主队主场场均进球 {home_avg:.2f} → 预测 {pred_home}; "
+            f"客队客场场均进球 {away_avg:.2f} → 预测 {pred_away}。"
+        ),
+        "raw_response": {"home_avg": round(home_avg, 2), "away_avg": round(away_avg, 2)},
+        "status": "success",
+    }
+
+    # P0-03:服务层幂等插入,回填真实 prediction_id(与 single/multi 统一)。
+    async with get_uow() as session:
+        pred = await _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(session, values=values)
+        prediction_id = pred.id
+
     return PredictResult(
-        prediction_id=0,  # 占位:真实 id 由路由层 _persist_baseline 落库后返回
+        prediction_id=prediction_id,
         provider="baseline",
         model="baseline",
         prompt_version="baseline_v1",
@@ -105,14 +147,11 @@ async def predict_baseline(
         alt_pred_away_goals=None,
         pred_1x2=pred_1x2,
         subjective_confidence=0.5,
-        reasoning=(
-            f"基线估计(非投注建议): 主队主场场均进球 {home_avg:.2f} → 预测 {pred_home}; "
-            f"客队客场场均进球 {away_avg:.2f} → 预测 {pred_away}。"
-        ),
+        reasoning=values["reasoning"],
         context="",  # baseline 不构建 LLM 上下文
         status="success",
         latency_ms=0,
         prompt_tokens=0,
         completion_tokens=0,
-        raw={"home_avg": round(home_avg, 2), "away_avg": round(away_avg, 2)},
+        raw=values["raw_response"],
     )

src/llm/context_builder.py

@@ -1,9 +1,9 @@
-"""上下文构建器:数据切片 + 拼接。
+"""上下文构建器:数据切片 + 拼接(聚合门面)。
 
-架构:
-    - match_header: 比赛基础信息(对阵双方/联赛/时间)
-    - 切片函数: 每个领域 agent 一个数据切片(h2h / form / standings / stats)
-    - build_context: 单 agent 路径,拼接全部切片(行为与旧版一致)
+实现按 slice 拆分(单文件 → slices 包),本模块只做再导出:
+    - 切片函数: 每个领域 agent 一个数据切片 → src/llm/slices/{form,h2h,stats,home_away,standings}.py
+    - 共享类型/头信息/查询助手                              → src/llm/slices/common.py
+    - build_context: 单 agent 路径,拼接全部切片(行为与旧版一致) → src/llm/slices/aggregate.py
 
 multi-agent 路径由 agents/orchestrator.py 调用切片函数,每个专家只拿自己的切片。
 
@@ -11,548 +11,33 @@ multi-agent 路径由 agents/orchestrator.py 调用切片函数,每个专家只
     build_context 创建一个共享 session 并传给所有切片函数,
     避免每个切片独立创建 session —— 回测 20 场并发时,
     5 个切片 × 20 场 = 100 个连接会耗尽连接池(pool_size=15)。
+
+消费方(路由/orchestrator/tests)仍从本模块 import,签名与拆分前完全一致。
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
-import logging
-from dataclasses import dataclass
-from typing import TYPE_CHECKING
-
-from sqlalchemy import select
-from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
-
-from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
-from src.db.models import Match
-
-if TYPE_CHECKING:
-    from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
-
-logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
-
-
-def _outcome(home_goals: int, away_goals: int, side: str) -> str:
-    """从某队视角看赛果: W/D/L。"""
-    if home_goals is None or away_goals is None:
-        return "?"
-    if side == "home":
-        return "W" if home_goals > away_goals else ("D" if home_goals == away_goals else "L")
-    return "W" if away_goals > home_goals else ("D" if away_goals == home_goals else "L")
-
-
-def _is_stats_available(stats, before) -> bool:
-    """检查统计数据在 cutoff 时间是否已可用。
-
-    available_at 语义:该条统计「对外可被使用」的最早时间,
-    至少不得早于比赛结束。用于回测防泄漏。
-
-    规则:
-      - before is None(实盘):available_at 为 None 时允许(兼容旧数据)
-      - before is not None(回测):available_at 为 None 视为不可用(保守)
-      - available_at > cutoff:不可用(数据在 cutoff 之后才生成)
-    """
-    if before is None:
-        # 实盘模式:无时间信息时允许(兼容旧数据)
-        return True
-    # 回测模式(cutoff 不为 None):
-    # available_at 为 None → 无法确认是否在 cutoff 前可用,保守视为不可用
-    if stats.available_at is None:
-        return False
-    return stats.available_at <= before
-
-
-@dataclass
-class SliceResult:
-    """数据切片的显式结果(替代「靠文案子串猜有无数据」)。
-
-    旧实现用 `"无数据" in slice_text` 判断,依赖具体文案 —— 一旦某个切片
-    写成「无比分数据」「无伤停数据」这类变体,判断就会静默失配
-    (见审查报告 P2-1)。这里让切片函数直接声明 `has_data`,不再猜。
-    """
-    text: str
-    has_data: bool
-    n_records: int = 0
-
-    def __str__(self) -> str:  # 让老调用点可直接当 str 用
-        return self.text
-
-
-@dataclass
-class MatchContext:
-    match_id: int
-    text: str
-    has_stats: bool
-    has_standings: bool
-    match_dt: object | None = None  # 比赛时间(回测防泄漏 + 快照用)
-    cutoff: object | None = None  # 实际使用的数据截止时间(用于落库记录)
-
-
-@dataclass
-class MatchHeader:
-    """比赛基础信息(所有 agent 共享)。"""
-    match_id: int
-    home_name: str
-    away_name: str
-    league_name: str
-    season: str | None
-    match_date: str
-    match_dt: object  # 原始 datetime,回测防泄漏用
-    stage: str | None
-    home_team_id: int
-    away_team_id: int
-    league_id: int
-
-
-async def load_match_header(match_id: int, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> MatchHeader:
-    """加载比赛头信息(各 agent 共用)。
-
-    Args:
-        match_id: 比赛 ID
-        db: 可选的共享 session。不传则自建(向后兼容)。
-    """
-    if db is not None:
-        m = await _load_match(db, match_id)
-        return _to_header(m)
-    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
-        m = await _load_match(new_db, match_id)
-        return _to_header(m)
-
-
-def _to_header(m: Match) -> MatchHeader:
-    return MatchHeader(
-        match_id=m.id,
-        home_name=m.home_team.name_zh or m.home_team.name,
-        away_name=m.away_team.name_zh or m.away_team.name,
-        league_name=m.league.name if m.league else "?",
-        season=m.season,
-        match_date=m.match_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M UTC") if m.match_date else "?",
-        match_dt=m.match_date,
-        stage=m.match_stage,
-        home_team_id=m.home_team_id,
-        away_team_id=m.away_team_id,
-        league_id=m.league_id,
-    )
-
-
-def header_text(h: MatchHeader) -> str:
-    stage = f" {h.stage}" if h.stage else ""
-    return (
-        f"对阵: {h.home_name} vs {h.away_name} | {h.league_name} {h.season or '?'}{stage} | {h.match_date}"
-    )
-
-
-# ============================================================
-# 切片函数: 每个领域 agent 一个
-# ============================================================
-
-async def h2h_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 8, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
-    """E - 历史交锋切片: 过去数年 + 近期交手数据,提取交手规律。before=match_date 用于回测。
-
-    db: 可选共享 session,避免每个切片独立建连(见模块 docstring)。
-    """
-    if db is not None:
-        h2h = await _get_h2h(db, header.home_team_id, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-    else:
-        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
-            h2h = await _get_h2h(new_db, header.home_team_id, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-    lines = [f"── 历史交锋(近 {limit} 次) ──"]
-    n_with_score = 0
-    if h2h:
-        # 从当前主队视角统计:判断当前主队在每场交锋中是主是客
-        current_home_wins = current_home_draws = current_home_losses = 0
-        for hm in h2h:
-            d = hm.match_date.strftime("%Y-%m") if hm.match_date else "?"
-            if hm.home_goals is not None:
-                n_with_score += 1
-                # 判断当前主队当时是主队还是客队
-                if hm.home_team_id == header.home_team_id:
-                    # 当前主队当时是主队
-                    if hm.home_goals > hm.away_goals:
-                        current_home_wins += 1
-                    elif hm.home_goals == hm.away_goals:
-                        current_home_draws += 1
-                    else:
-                        current_home_losses += 1
-                else:
-                    # 当前主队当时是客队(从客队视角看赛果)
-                    if hm.away_goals > hm.home_goals:
-                        current_home_wins += 1
-                    elif hm.away_goals == hm.home_goals:
-                        current_home_draws += 1
-                    else:
-                        current_home_losses += 1
-                lines.append(f"  {d}: {hm.home_team.name} {hm.home_goals}-{hm.away_goals} {hm.away_team.name}")
-            else:
-                lines.append(f"  {d}: {hm.home_team.name} vs {hm.away_team.name} (无比分)")
-        total = current_home_wins + current_home_draws + current_home_losses
-        if total:
-            lines.append(
-                f"  总计 {total} 场(从当前主队 {header.home_name} 视角): "
-                f"{current_home_wins}胜 {current_home_draws}平 {current_home_losses}负"
-            )
-    else:
-        lines.append("  无数据")
-    # has_data 以「有比分的交锋」为准:仅有对阵无比分时不足以支撑分析
-    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_with_score > 0, n_records=n_with_score)
-
-
-async def form_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 5, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
-    """A - 近期状态切片: 两队近 N 场赛果、关键事件、走势判断。before=match_date 用于回测。
-
-    db: 可选共享 session,避免每个切片独立建连(见模块 docstring)。
-    """
-    if db is not None:
-        home_form = await _get_form(db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-        away_form = await _get_form(db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-    else:
-        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
-            home_form = await _get_form(new_db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-            away_form = await _get_form(new_db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-    lines = []
-    n_scored = 0
-    # P0-1 修复:每场历史比赛必须根据「该队当时是主是客」判断 side,
-    # 不能用本场 side 硬套 —— 否则客场输球会被算成主场赢球。
-    for label, name, form, team_id in (
-        ("主队", header.home_name, home_form, header.home_team_id),
-        ("客队", header.away_name, away_form, header.away_team_id),
-    ):
-        lines.append(f"── {label}近况({name},近 {limit} 场) ──")
-        if form:
-            wins = draws = losses = 0
-            for fm in form:
-                is_home = (fm.home_team_id == team_id)
-                side = "home" if is_home else "away"
-                o = _outcome(fm.home_goals, fm.away_goals, side)
-                if o == "W": wins += 1
-                elif o == "D": draws += 1
-                else: losses += 1
-                if fm.home_goals is not None:
-                    n_scored += 1
-                score = f"{fm.home_goals}-{fm.away_goals}" if fm.home_goals is not None else "vs"
-                xg = ""
-                if fm.stats and _is_stats_available(fm.stats, before) and fm.stats.home_xg is not None:
-                    own = fm.stats.home_xg if is_home else fm.stats.away_xg
-                    xg = f" (xG {own:.1f})"
-                opp = fm.away_team.name if is_home else fm.home_team.name
-                lines.append(f"  {o} {score} vs {opp}{xg}")
-            lines.append(f"  近 {len(form)} 场: {wins}胜 {draws}平 {losses}负")
-        else:
-            lines.append("  无数据")
-    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_scored > 0, n_records=n_scored)
-
-
-async def stats_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
-    """B - 攻防数据切片: 进球、射门、控球,评估攻防强度。before=match_date 用于回测。
-
-    db: 可选共享 session,避免每个切片独立建连(见模块 docstring)。
-    """
-    if db is not None:
-        home_form = await _get_form(db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-        away_form = await _get_form(db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-    else:
-        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
-            home_form = await _get_form(new_db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-            away_form = await _get_form(new_db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
-    lines = [f"── 攻防数据(近 {limit} 场) ──"]
-    n_total = 0
-    # P0-1 修复:每场历史比赛必须根据「该队当时是主是客」判断 side,
-    # 不能用本场 side 硬套 —— 否则进球/失球/xG 全部算反。
-    for label, name, form, team_id in (
-        ("主队", header.home_name, home_form, header.home_team_id),
-        ("客队", header.away_name, away_form, header.away_team_id),
-    ):
-        if form:
-            gf = ga = shots = sot = poss = xg = xga = 0
-            n = n_shots = n_poss = n_xg = 0
-            for fm in form:
-                if fm.home_goals is None: continue
-                is_home = (fm.home_team_id == team_id)
-                gf += fm.home_goals if is_home else fm.away_goals
-                ga += fm.away_goals if is_home else fm.home_goals
-                n += 1
-                # 只使用 cutoff 之前已可用的统计数据
-                if fm.stats and _is_stats_available(fm.stats, before):
-                    if fm.stats.home_shots is not None:
-                        shots += fm.stats.home_shots if is_home else fm.stats.away_shots
-                        sot += fm.stats.home_shots_on_target if is_home else fm.stats.away_shots_on_target
-                        n_shots += 1
-                    if fm.stats.home_possession is not None:
-                        poss += fm.stats.home_possession if is_home else (100 - fm.stats.home_possession)
-                        n_poss += 1
-                    if fm.stats.home_xg is not None:
-                        xg += fm.stats.home_xg if is_home else fm.stats.away_xg
-                        xga += fm.stats.away_xg if is_home else fm.stats.home_xg
-                        n_xg += 1
-            n_total += n
-            if n > 0:
-                lines.append(f"  {label} {name}:")
-                lines.append(f"    场均进球 {gf/n:.2f}, 场均失球 {ga/n:.2f}")
-                if n_shots: lines.append(f"    场均射门 {shots/n_shots:.1f}, 射正 {sot/n_shots:.1f}")
-                if n_poss: lines.append(f"    平均控球 {poss/n_poss:.1f}%")
-                if n_xg: lines.append(f"    场均 xG {xg/n_xg:.2f}, 场均被 xG {xga/n_xg:.2f}")
-            else:
-                lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无比分数据")
-        else:
-            lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无数据")
-    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_total > 0, n_records=n_total)
-
-
-async def home_away_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
-    """C - 主客因素切片: 主场战绩 vs 客场战绩,评估地理优势影响。before=match_date 用于回测。
-
-    db: 可选共享 session,避免每个切片独立建连(见模块 docstring)。
-    """
-    if db is not None:
-        home_home = await _get_home_away(db, header.home_team_id, "home", before=before, limit=limit)
-        away_away = await _get_home_away(db, header.away_team_id, "away", before=before, limit=limit)
-    else:
-        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
-            home_home = await _get_home_away(new_db, header.home_team_id, "home", before=before, limit=limit)
-            away_away = await _get_home_away(new_db, header.away_team_id, "away", before=before, limit=limit)
-    lines = ["── 主客因素 ──"]
-    n_total = 0
-    for label, name, matches, side in (
-        ("主队主场", header.home_name, home_home, "home"),
-        ("客队客场", header.away_name, away_away, "away"),
-    ):
-        if matches:
-            wins = draws = losses = gf = ga = 0
-            for m in matches:
-                if m.home_goals is None: continue
-                o = _outcome(m.home_goals, m.away_goals, side)
-                if o == "W": wins += 1
-                elif o == "D": draws += 1
-                else: losses += 1
-                gf += m.home_goals if side == "home" else m.away_goals
-                ga += m.away_goals if side == "home" else m.home_goals
-            n = wins + draws + losses
-            n_total += n
-            if n > 0:
-                pct = wins / n * 100
-                lines.append(f"  {label} {name}(近 {n} 场): {wins}胜 {draws}平 {losses}负, 胜率 {pct:.0f}%")
-                lines.append(f"    场均进球 {gf/n:.2f}, 场均失球 {ga/n:.2f}")
-            else:
-                lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无比分数据")
-        else:
-            lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无数据")
-    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_total > 0, n_records=n_total)
-
-
-async def standings_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
-    """D - 联赛排名切片: 两队积分榜位置、积分、近期走势(form)、分区,评估整体实力差距。
-
-    before 参数保留与其他切片一致的签名(积分榜是最新快照,无历史版本,不受 cutoff 影响)。
-    db: 可选共享 session(见模块 docstring)。
-
-    语义区分:
-      - 两队都有积分榜行 → has_data=True(明确的排名信息)
-      - 任一队缺失 → has_data=False(升班马/杯赛无榜,信息不完整时明确声明)
-    """
-    from src.db.models import League, Standing
-
-    if db is not None:
-        league = (await db.execute(select(League).where(League.id == header.league_id))).scalar_one_or_none()
-        rows = (
-            (
-                await db.execute(
-                    select(Standing)
-                    .options(selectinload(Standing.team))
-                    .where(Standing.league_id == header.league_id)
-                    .order_by(Standing.position.asc())
-                )
-            )
-            .scalars()
-            .all()
-            if league
-            else []
-        )
-    else:
-        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
-            return await standings_slice(header, before=before, db=new_db)
-
-    lines = [f"── 联赛排名({header.league_name} 共 {len(rows)} 队) ──"]
-    n_records = 0
-
-    def _fmt(row) -> str:
-        zg = f" xG差 {row.xgd:+.1f}" if row.xg_for is not None and row.xg_against is not None and row.goal_diff is not None else ""
-        form = f" 近5场 {row.form}" if row.form else ""
-        zone = f" [{row.zone}]" if row.zone else ""
-        return (
-            f"    第 {row.position} 名: {row.points} 分 / {row.played} 场 "
-            f"({row.won}胜{row.drawn}平{row.lost}负, 进{row.goals_for}失{row.goals_against} 净胜{row.goal_diff:+d}"
-            f"{zg}){form}{zone}"
-        )
-
-    for label, team_id in (("主队", header.home_team_id), ("客队", header.away_team_id)):
-        row = next((r for r in rows if r.team_id == team_id), None)
-        if row is None:
-            lines.append(f"  {label}: 暂无积分榜数据(可能杯赛/赛季未开始)")
-        else:
-            n_records += 1
-            lines.append(f"  {label} {header.home_name if label == '主队' else header.away_name}:")
-            lines.append(_fmt(row))
-
-    # 两队排名对比摘要
-    home_row = next((r for r in rows if r.team_id == header.home_team_id), None)
-    away_row = next((r for r in rows if r.team_id == header.away_team_id), None)
-    if home_row and away_row:
-        diff = home_row.position - away_row.position  # 正数=主队排名更靠前(名次更小)
-        lead = f"主队排名高 {diff} 位" if diff > 0 else (f"客队排名高 {-diff} 位" if diff < 0 else "两队同排名结构")
-        pts_diff = home_row.points - away_row.points
-        lines.append(f"  排名对比: {lead}, 分差 {pts_diff:+d}")
-
-    # has_data: 两队都有行才算完整;只有一队时仍有价值,但标记不完整
-    has_data = n_records >= 1
-    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=has_data, n_records=n_records)
-
-
-# ============================================================
-# 单 agent 路径: 拼接全部切片(行为与旧版一致)
-# ============================================================
-
-async def build_context(match_id: int, *, form_last: int = 5, h2h_last: int = 5, backtest: bool = False, cutoff_at=None) -> MatchContext:
-    """单 agent 路径的完整上下文: 拼接全部切片(before=cutoff,防未来信息)。
-
-    has_stats / has_standings 直接取切片显式声明的 has_data,
-    不再靠文案子串匹配(见审查报告 P2-1)。
-
-    P2-6: backtest=True 时 cutoff = match_date - 1天,确保只用赛前数据。
-    cutoff_at: 显式截止时间(优先于 backtest 自动计算)。
-
-    P1-1: 使用单个共享 session 贯穿所有切片查询,避免连接池耗尽。
-    """
-    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
-        header = await load_match_header(match_id, db=db)
-        # 计算数据截止时间: 显式 > backtest 自动计算 > 默认(比赛时间)
-        if cutoff_at is not None:
-            cutoff = cutoff_at
-        elif backtest and header.match_dt:
-            from datetime import timedelta
-            cutoff = header.match_dt - timedelta(days=1)
-        else:
-            cutoff = header.match_dt
-        parts = [header_text(header), ""]
-
-        form_res = await form_slice(header, limit=form_last, before=cutoff, db=db)
-        parts.append(form_res.text)
-        parts.append("")
-
-        h2h_res = await h2h_slice(header, limit=h2h_last, before=cutoff, db=db)
-        parts.append(h2h_res.text)
-        parts.append("")
-
-        stats_res = await stats_slice(header, before=cutoff, db=db)
-        parts.append(stats_res.text)
-        parts.append("")
-
-        home_away_res = await home_away_slice(header, before=cutoff, db=db)
-        parts.append(home_away_res.text)
-        parts.append("")
-
-        standings_res = await standings_slice(header, before=cutoff, db=db)
-        parts.append(standings_res.text)
-
-        return MatchContext(
-            match_id=match_id,
-            text="\n".join(parts),
-            has_stats=form_res.has_data or stats_res.has_data,
-            has_standings=standings_res.has_data,
-            match_dt=header.match_dt,
-            cutoff=cutoff,
-        )
-
-
-# ============================================================
-# 底层查询(切片函数共用)
-# ============================================================
-
-async def _load_match(db, match_id: int) -> Match:
-    stmt = (
-        select(Match)
-        .where(Match.id == match_id)
-        .options(
-            selectinload(Match.league),
-            selectinload(Match.home_team),
-            selectinload(Match.away_team),
-            selectinload(Match.stats),
-        )
-    )
-    m = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
-    if m is None:
-        raise ValueError(f"match {match_id} not found")
-    return m
-
-
-async def _get_form(db, team_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) -> list[Match]:
-    """某队近 N 场(已完赛)。before=None 表示不限制(预测赛前的场景由调用方保证)。
-
-    必须预加载 stats / home_team / away_team:切片函数会读取这些关系,
-    而 async session 下惰性加载会抛 MissingGreenlet。
-    (models.py 已声明 lazy="selectin",此处显式声明以固化查询意图。)
-    """
-    stmt = (
-        select(Match)
-        .options(
-            selectinload(Match.stats),
-            selectinload(Match.home_team),
-            selectinload(Match.away_team),
-        )
-        .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
-        .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
-        .where((Match.home_team_id == team_id) | (Match.away_team_id == team_id))
-        .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
-        .limit(limit)
-    )
-    if before is not None:
-        stmt = stmt.where(Match.match_date < before)
-    result = await db.execute(stmt)
-    return list(result.scalars().all())
-
-
-async def _get_h2h(db, home_id: int, away_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) -> list[Match]:
-    """两队交锋史。需预加载 home_team / away_team(切片输出队名)。"""
-    stmt = (
-        select(Match)
-        .options(
-            selectinload(Match.home_team),
-            selectinload(Match.away_team),
-        )
-        .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
-        .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
-        .where(
-            ((Match.home_team_id == home_id) & (Match.away_team_id == away_id))
-            | ((Match.home_team_id == away_id) & (Match.away_team_id == home_id))
-        )
-        .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
-        .limit(limit)
-    )
-    if before is not None:
-        stmt = stmt.where(Match.match_date < before)
-    result = await db.execute(stmt)
-    return list(result.scalars().all())
-
-
-async def _get_home_away(db, team_id: int, side: str, before, *, limit: int = 10) -> list[Match]:
-    """某队主场/客场近 N 场。side='home' 取主场,'away' 取客场。
-
-    当前只用标量字段,但统一预加载以免后续扩展时踩坑。
-    """
-    stmt = (
-        select(Match)
-        .options(
-            selectinload(Match.stats),
-            selectinload(Match.home_team),
-            selectinload(Match.away_team),
-        )
-        .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
-        .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
-        .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
-        .limit(limit)
-    )
-    if side == "home":
-        stmt = stmt.where(Match.home_team_id == team_id)
-    else:
-        stmt = stmt.where(Match.away_team_id == team_id)
-    if before is not None:
-        stmt = stmt.where(Match.match_date < before)
-    result = await db.execute(stmt)
-    return list(result.scalars().all())
+# ── 共享类型与基础(判空/赛果/统计可用性) ──
+from src.llm.slices.common import (  # noqa: F401
+    MatchContext,
+    MatchHeader,
+    SliceResult,
+    _is_stats_available,
+    _outcome,
+    header_text,
+    load_match_header,
+)
+
+# ── 领域切片 ──
+from src.llm.slices.form import form_slice  # noqa: F401
+from src.llm.slices.h2h import h2h_slice  # noqa: F401
+from src.llm.slices.home_away import home_away_slice  # noqa: F401
+from src.llm.slices.standings import standings_slice  # noqa: F401
+from src.llm.slices.stats import stats_slice  # noqa: F401
+
+# ── 底层查询助手(切片函数共用;orchestrator/tests 直接引用) ──
+from src.llm.slices.form import _get_form  # noqa: F401
+from src.llm.slices.h2h import _get_h2h  # noqa: F401
+from src.llm.slices.home_away import _get_home_away  # noqa: F401
+
+# ── 单 agent 聚合入口 ──
+from src.llm.slices.aggregate import build_context  # noqa: F401

src/llm/eval.py

@@ -7,6 +7,7 @@ from sqlalchemy import func, or_, select
 
 from src.db.models import Prediction, Match, League
 from src.db.unit_of_work import get_uow
+from src.llm.utils import actual_1x2
 
 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
 
@@ -33,12 +34,8 @@ async def settle_prediction(prediction_id: int, home_goals: int, away_goals: int
 
 
 def _actual_1x2(home: int, away: int) -> str:
-    """根据实际比分返胜平负。"""
-    if home > away:
-        return "1"
-    if home == away:
-        return "X"
-    return "2"
+    """根据实际比分返胜平负(委托 utils.actual_1x2 单一权威源)。"""
+    return actual_1x2(home, away)
 
 
 def _build_filters(

src/llm/predict.py

@@ -1,4 +1,16 @@
-"""预测服务:拼上下文 → 调 LLM → 存预测。"""
+"""预测服务:拼上下文 → 调 LLM → 存预测。
+
+落库层级(table: predictions):
+
+| 模式      | 落库位置(服务层)                                            | 路由层(routes/predict.py) |
+|-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------|
+| single    | `_predict_single` → `_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint`              | 不读 DB,仅映射 result → PredictOut |
+| multi     | `orchestrator.predict_match_multi` → `_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint` | 不读 DB,仅映射 result → PredictOut |
+| baseline  | `predict_baseline` → `_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint`             | 不读 DB,仅映射 result → PredictOut |
+
+三种模式统一在服务层经 UnitOfWork 落库并回填真实 prediction_id;
+路由层永不写入 predictions,只读 result.prediction_id 做响应映射。
+"""
 from __future__ import annotations
 
 import functools
@@ -25,9 +37,7 @@ _PROMPT_DIR = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "prompts"
 # ── LLM 响应缓存(match+provider+model+version → 结果) ──
 _CACHE_TTL_SEC = 300  # 5 分钟
 _CACHE_MAX_SIZE = 200  # P3-1: 有上限,避免长期运行内存无限增长
-# P1-5: 缓存仅在 asyncio 协程内同步访问(dict 操作 GIL 原子),无需 threading.Lock。
-# 删除 _cache_lock,避免同步锁阻塞事件循环;dict 的 get/set 在 CPython 下原子。
-_cache: dict[str, tuple[float, PredictResult]] = {}
+_CACHE_PREFIX = "predict:"  # Redis key 前缀
 
 
 def _cache_key(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash: str) -> str:
@@ -36,43 +46,132 @@ def _cache_key(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash:
     仅用 version 做键不够 —— 编辑器里改动 `match_prediction_v1.md` 而版本号
     不变时,进程内缓存仍会返回旧模板产生的旧结果(见审查报告 P2-6)。
     把模板内容 hash 纳入键,模板一改缓存自动失效。
+    内存与 Redis 共用同一键格式,TTL 一致。
     """
-    return f"{match_id}:{provider}:{model}:{version}:{tpl_hash[:12]}"
+    return f"{_CACHE_PREFIX}{match_id}:{provider}:{model}:{version}:{tpl_hash[:12]}"
 
 
-def _get_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash: str) -> PredictResult | None:
-    # P1-5: 无锁访问。dict get/del 在 CPython GIL 下原子,且无 await 穿插。
-    key = _cache_key(match_id, provider, model, version, tpl_hash)
-    entry = _cache.get(key)
+# ── 缓存后端:内存(LRU+TTL),可选 Redis ──────────────────────────
+class _CacheBackend:
+    """缓存后端统一接口:_get 同步返回(命中时),_set 异步(Redis 为 async,内存同步)。"""
+
+    def _raw_key(self, key: str) -> str:
+        return key
+
+    def get(self, key: str) -> PredictResult | None:
+        raise NotImplementedError
+
+    async def set(self, key: str, result: PredictResult, ttl: int) -> None:
+        raise NotImplementedError
+
+
+class _MemoryCache(_CacheBackend):
+    """进程内 LRU+TTL 缓存(默认后端)。"""
+
+    def __init__(self) -> None:
+        self._store: dict[str, tuple[float, PredictResult]] = {}
+
+    def get(self, key: str) -> PredictResult | None:
+        entry = self._store.get(key)
         if entry is not None:
             ts, result = entry
             if time.time() - ts < _CACHE_TTL_SEC:
                 return result
-        _cache.pop(key, None)
+            self._store.pop(key, None)
         return None
 
-
-def _set_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash: str, result: PredictResult) -> None:
-    # P1-5: 无锁写入。同上,dict set 原子。
-    key = _cache_key(match_id, provider, model, version, tpl_hash)
-    _cache[key] = (time.time(), result)
-    # P3-1: 超过上限时淘汰最旧条目(按时间戳排序)
-    if len(_cache) > _CACHE_MAX_SIZE:
-        oldest_key = min(_cache, key=lambda k: _cache[k][0])
-        _cache.pop(oldest_key, None)
+    async def set(self, key: str, result: PredictResult, ttl: int) -> None:
+        self._store[key] = (time.time(), result)
+        if len(self._store) > _CACHE_MAX_SIZE:
+            oldest_key = min(self._store, key=lambda k: self._store[k][0])
+            self._store.pop(oldest_key, None)
 
 
-def clear_prompt_cache() -> None:
-    """清空 prompt 模板缓存(供开发/热更新时手动调用)。
+class _RedisCache(_CacheBackend):
+    """可选 Redis 后端: PREDICT_CACHE_URL 非空时启用。
 
-    lru_cache 的模板缓存是进程级的,改完 .md 需要重启进程才能生效;
-    提供显式清理入口,避免"改了模板却看不到变化"的困惑(见审查报告 P2-5)。
+    失败降级:读失败返回 None(跳过缓存),写失败打 warning;不中断预测主流程。
+    不强制依赖 redis 包——未安装时启动回退内存并 warning。
     """
-    _load_prompt_template.cache_clear()
-    logger.info("prompt 模板缓存已清空")
+
+    def __init__(self, url: str) -> None:
+        self._url = url
+        self._redis = None  # type: ignore[var-annotated]
+        self._memory_fallback = _MemoryCache()
+        self._available: bool | None = None  # None=未探测,True=可用,False=不可用
+
+    async def _ensure_conn(self) -> bool:
+        """懒初始化 Redis 连接;失败返回 False 并降级内存。"""
+        if self._available is not None:
+            return self._available
+        try:
+            from redis.asyncio import Redis
+
+            self._redis = Redis.from_url(self._url, decode_responses=True, socket_timeout=2.0)
+            await self._redis.ping()
+            self._available = True
+            logger.info("predict cache: Redis 后端已连接 %s", self._url.replace(self._url.split("@")[-1] if "@" in self._url else self._url, "***") if "://" in self._url else "redis")
+        except Exception as e:
+            self._available = False
+            logger.warning("predict cache: Redis 连接失败(%s),降级内存缓存", e)
+        return self._available
+
+    def get(self, key: str) -> PredictResult | None:
+        # Redis get 是 async 的,此处统一由调用方走 async 路径;
+        # 同步 get 仅用于不可降级场景——Redis 模式下直接返回 None,
+        # 实际读取通过 get_async 完成。
+        return None
+
+    async def get_async(self, key: str) -> PredictResult | None:
+        if not await self._ensure_conn():
+            return self._memory_fallback.get(key)
+        try:
+            import pickle
+
+            raw = await self._redis.get(key)  # type: ignore[union-attr]
+            if raw is None:
+                return None
+            return pickle.loads(raw.encode("latin-1")) if isinstance(raw, str) else pickle.loads(raw)
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.warning("predict cache: Redis GET 失败(%s),跳过缓存", e)
+            return None
+
+    async def set(self, key: str, result: PredictResult, ttl: int) -> None:
+        if not await self._ensure_conn():
+            await self._memory_fallback.set(key, result, ttl)
+            return
+        try:
+            import pickle
+
+            payload = pickle.dumps(result).decode("latin-1")
+            await self._redis.set(key, payload, ex=ttl)  # type: ignore[union-attr]
+        except Exception as e:
+            logger.warning("predict cache: Redis SET 失败(%s),降级内存写入", e)
+            await self._memory_fallback.set(key, result, ttl)
+
+
+def _build_cache_backend() -> _CacheBackend:
+    url = getattr(settings, "PREDICT_CACHE_URL", None)
+    if url:
+        return _RedisCache(url)
+    return _MemoryCache()
+
+
+_cache_backend: _CacheBackend = _build_cache_backend()
+
+
+async def _get_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash: str) -> PredictResult | None:
+    key = _cache_key(match_id, provider, model, version, tpl_hash)
+    if isinstance(_cache_backend, _RedisCache):
+        return await _cache_backend.get_async(key)
+    return _cache_backend.get(key)
+
+
+async def _set_cached(match_id: int, provider: str, model: str, version: str, tpl_hash: str, result: PredictResult) -> None:
+    key = _cache_key(match_id, provider, model, version, tpl_hash)
+    await _cache_backend.set(key, result, _CACHE_TTL_SEC)
 
 
-@functools.lru_cache(maxsize=8)
 def _load_prompt_template(version: str = "v1") -> str:
     """缓存 prompt 模板(进程生命周期内每个版本只读一次)。"""
     path = _PROMPT_DIR / f"match_prediction_{version}.md"
@@ -121,43 +220,59 @@ class PredictResult:
     raw: dict | None = None
 
 
-async def _upsert_prediction(
-    session,
-    *,
-    match_id: int,
-    provider_name: str,
-    model: str,
-    mode: str,
-    run_type: str,
-    values: dict,
-) -> Prediction:
-    """按 (match, provider, model, mode, run_type) 唯一约束写入预测。
+def _compute_fingerprint(values: dict) -> str:
+    """P0-03: 预测指纹(规范 JSON 的 SHA-256)。
 
-    已存在且未结算 → 覆盖更新(重新预测语义);已结算 → 拒绝(保护评估数据)。
-    run_type 区分 live/backtest,避免回测覆盖实盘预测。
+    捕获影响预测输出的全部因素:输入、提示、模型、采样、截止时间、专家。
+    同 fingerprint → 返回已有行(不 UPDATE/INSERT);不同 → INSERT 新行。
     """
+    import json as _json
+
+    canonical = {
+        "match_id": values.get("match_id"),
+        "prediction_cutoff_at": _iso(values.get("prediction_cutoff_at")),
+        "prompt_version": values.get("prompt_version"),
+        "prompt_hash": values.get("prompt_hash"),
+        "system_prompt_hash": values.get("system_prompt_hash"),
+        "provider": values.get("provider"),
+        "model": values.get("model"),
+        "mode": values.get("mode"),
+        "run_type": values.get("run_type"),
+        "temperature": values.get("temperature"),
+        "context_hash": values.get("context_hash"),
+        "agent_ids": sorted(values.get("agent_ids") or []),
+    }
+    blob = _json.dumps(canonical, sort_keys=True, separators=(',', ':'))
+    return hashlib.sha256(blob.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
+
+
+def _iso(v) -> str | None:
+    if v is None:
+        return None
+    if hasattr(v, "isoformat"):
+        return v.isoformat()
+    return str(v)
+
+
+async def _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(session, *, values: dict) -> Prediction:
+    """P0-03: 幂等插入——同 input_hash 返回已有行(不 UPDATE);不同则 INSERT。
+
+    不再按 (match, provider, model, mode, run_type) 做 upsert,避免覆盖已有预测。
+    values 必须包含 fingerprint 所需全部字段(见 _compute_fingerprint)。
+    """
+    fingerprint = _compute_fingerprint(values)
+    values["input_hash"] = fingerprint
+
     existing = (
         await session.execute(
-            select(Prediction).where(
-                Prediction.match_id == match_id,
-                Prediction.provider == provider_name,
-                Prediction.model == model,
-                Prediction.mode == mode,
-                Prediction.run_type == run_type,
-            )
+            select(Prediction).where(Prediction.input_hash == fingerprint)
         )
     ).scalar_one_or_none()
-    if existing is not None and existing.settled:
-        raise ValueError("该比赛已有已结算的预测,不能重新预测")
+    if existing is not None:
+        # 同指纹 → 直接返回,绝不覆盖 pred_* / reasoning / agent_outputs
+        return existing
 
-    pred = existing if existing is not None else Prediction(
-        match_id=match_id, provider=provider_name, model=model,
-    )
-    pred.mode = mode
-    pred.run_type = run_type
-    for k, v in values.items():
-        setattr(pred, k, v)
-    if existing is None:
+    pred = Prediction(**{k: v for k, v in values.items() if hasattr(Prediction, k)})
     session.add(pred)
     await session.flush()  # 拿到自增 id;事务由 UnitOfWork 退出时提交
     return pred
@@ -235,7 +350,7 @@ async def _predict_single(
 
     # 0. 查缓存(同 match+provider+model+version+模板hash 5 分钟内直接返)
     if use_cache:
-        cached = _get_cached(match_id, settings.LLM_PROVIDER, provider.model, version, tpl_hash)
+        cached = await _get_cached(match_id, settings.LLM_PROVIDER, provider.model, version, tpl_hash)
         if cached is not None:
             logger.debug("predict cache hit match=%s", match_id)
             return cached
@@ -243,23 +358,26 @@ async def _predict_single(
     # 1. 拼上下文(backtest/cutoff 防泄漏)
     ctx = await build_context(match_id, backtest=backtest, cutoff_at=cutoff_at)
 
-    # 1.5 计算快照元数据(用于可复现性)
+    # 1.5 计算快照元数据(用于可复现性 + P0-03 指纹)
     now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
     match_kickoff_at = ctx.match_dt
     # 使用上下文实际计算的 cutoff(回测时可能为 match_dt-1天),而非开球时间
     prediction_cutoff_at = ctx.cutoff if ctx.cutoff is not None else ctx.match_dt
-    input_hash = hashlib.sha256(ctx.text.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
 
     # 2. 拼 prompt(指定版本)
     template = _load_prompt_template(version)
+    prompt_hash = _prompt_template_hash(version)
     user_prompt = template.replace("{{context}}", ctx.text)
+    system_prompt = "你是一个严谨的足球预测专家。只输出 JSON。"
+    context_hash = hashlib.sha256(ctx.text.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest()
 
     # 3. 调 LLM
+    temperature = 0.3
     resp = await provider.chat(
-        system="你是一个严谨的足球预测专家。只输出 JSON。",
+        system=system_prompt,
         user=user_prompt,
         json_mode=True,
-        temperature=0.3,
+        temperature=temperature,
         max_tokens=4096,  # 推理模型的 reasoning 也计入输出 token,需留足余量
     )
 
@@ -286,15 +404,20 @@ async def _predict_single(
         if m is None:
             raise ValueError(f"match {match_id} not found")
 
-        pred = await _upsert_prediction(
+        pred = await _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(
             session,
-            match_id=match_id,
-            provider_name=settings.LLM_PROVIDER,
-            model=provider.model,
-            mode="single",
-            run_type="backtest" if backtest else "live",
             values={
+                "match_id": match_id,
+                "provider": settings.LLM_PROVIDER,
+                "model": provider.model,
+                "mode": "single",
+                "run_type": "backtest" if backtest else "live",
                 "prompt_version": version,
+                "prompt_hash": prompt_hash,
+                "system_prompt_hash": hashlib.sha256(system_prompt.encode("utf-8")).hexdigest(),
+                "temperature": temperature,
+                "context_hash": context_hash,
+                "agent_ids": [],
                 "prompt_tokens": resp.prompt_tokens,
                 "completion_tokens": resp.completion_tokens,
                 "latency_ms": resp.latency_ms,
@@ -310,7 +433,6 @@ async def _predict_single(
                 "match_kickoff_at": match_kickoff_at,
                 "prediction_cutoff_at": prediction_cutoff_at,
                 "prediction_created_at": now,
-                "input_hash": input_hash,
             },
         )
 
@@ -334,7 +456,7 @@ async def _predict_single(
 
         # 5. 写入缓存(仅当允许缓存时)
         if use_cache:
-            _set_cached(match_id, settings.LLM_PROVIDER, provider.model, version, tpl_hash, result)
+            await _set_cached(match_id, settings.LLM_PROVIDER, provider.model, version, tpl_hash, result)
         logger.info(
             "预测完成 match=%s mode=%s status=%s pred=%s:%s (%s) latency=%sms",
             match_id, "single", "success",

src/llm/slices/__init__.py

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+"""slices 包:按领域拆分的数据切片(form/stats/h2h/home_away/standings)。
+
+对外统一经 src.llm.context_builder 再导出;本包 __init__ 不承载导出,
+保持「context_builder 是唯一公开入口」的 import 约定。
+"""

src/llm/slices/aggregate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+"""单 agent 聚合路径: 拼接全部切片(build_context)。
+
+共享 session 贯穿所有切片(见 context_builder 模块 docstring 的性能说明)。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
+from src.llm.slices.common import MatchContext, header_text, load_match_header
+from src.llm.slices.form import form_slice
+from src.llm.slices.h2h import h2h_slice
+from src.llm.slices.home_away import home_away_slice
+from src.llm.slices.standings import standings_slice
+from src.llm.slices.stats import stats_slice
+
+
+async def build_context(match_id: int, *, form_last: int = 5, h2h_last: int = 5, backtest: bool = False, cutoff_at=None) -> MatchContext:
+    """单 agent 路径的完整上下文: 拼接全部切片(before=cutoff,防未来信息)。
+
+    has_stats / has_standings 直接取切片显式声明的 has_data,
+    不再靠文案子串匹配(见审查报告 P2-1)。
+
+    P2-6: backtest=True 时 cutoff = match_date - 1天,确保只用赛前数据。
+    cutoff_at: 显式截止时间(优先于 backtest 自动计算)。
+
+    P1-1: 使用单个共享 session 贯穿所有切片查询,避免连接池耗尽。
+    """
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
+        header = await load_match_header(match_id, db=db)
+        # 计算数据截止时间: 显式 > backtest 自动计算 > 默认(比赛时间)
+        if cutoff_at is not None:
+            cutoff = cutoff_at
+        elif backtest and header.match_dt:
+            from datetime import timedelta
+            cutoff = header.match_dt - timedelta(days=1)
+        else:
+            cutoff = header.match_dt
+        parts = [header_text(header), ""]
+
+        form_res = await form_slice(header, limit=form_last, before=cutoff, db=db)
+        parts.append(form_res.text)
+        parts.append("")
+
+        h2h_res = await h2h_slice(header, limit=h2h_last, before=cutoff, db=db)
+        parts.append(h2h_res.text)
+        parts.append("")
+
+        stats_res = await stats_slice(header, before=cutoff, db=db)
+        parts.append(stats_res.text)
+        parts.append("")
+
+        home_away_res = await home_away_slice(header, before=cutoff, db=db)
+        parts.append(home_away_res.text)
+        parts.append("")
+
+        standings_res = await standings_slice(header, before=cutoff, db=db)
+        parts.append(standings_res.text)
+
+        return MatchContext(
+            match_id=match_id,
+            text="\n".join(parts),
+            has_stats=form_res.has_data or stats_res.has_data,
+            has_standings=standings_res.has_data,
+            match_dt=header.match_dt,
+            cutoff=cutoff,
+        )

src/llm/slices/common.py

@@ -0,0 +1,149 @@
+"""切片共享基础:结果类型 / 比赛头信息 / 赛果与统计可用性判定。
+
+从 context_builder.py 按领域拆出(单文件 → slices 包),仅做搬迁无逻辑修改。
+各领域切片见同包 form/h2h/stats/home_away/standings 模块;
+聚合入口 build_context 见 aggregate.py;对外统一经 context_builder 再导出。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import logging
+from dataclasses import dataclass
+from typing import TYPE_CHECKING
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
+
+from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
+from src.db.models import Match
+
+if TYPE_CHECKING:
+    from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
+
+logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)
+
+
+def _outcome(home_goals: int, away_goals: int, side: str) -> str:
+    """从某队视角看赛果: W/D/L。"""
+    if home_goals is None or away_goals is None:
+        return "?"
+    if side == "home":
+        return "W" if home_goals > away_goals else ("D" if home_goals == away_goals else "L")
+    return "W" if away_goals > home_goals else ("D" if away_goals == home_goals else "L")
+
+
+def _is_stats_available(stats, before) -> bool:
+    """检查统计数据在 cutoff 时间是否已可用。
+
+    available_at 语义:该条统计「对外可被使用」的最早时间,
+    至少不得早于比赛结束。用于回测防泄漏。
+
+    规则:
+      - before is None(实盘):available_at 为 None 时允许(兼容旧数据)
+      - before is not None(回测):available_at 为 None 视为不可用(保守)
+      - available_at > cutoff:不可用(数据在 cutoff 之后才生成)
+    """
+    if before is None:
+        # 实盘模式:无时间信息时允许(兼容旧数据)
+        return True
+    # 回测模式(cutoff 不为 None):
+    # available_at 为 None → 无法确认是否在 cutoff 前可用,保守视为不可用
+    if stats.available_at is None:
+        return False
+    return stats.available_at <= before
+
+
+@dataclass
+class SliceResult:
+    """数据切片的显式结果(替代「靠文案子串猜有无数据」)。
+
+    旧实现用 `"无数据" in slice_text` 判断,依赖具体文案 —— 一旦某个切片
+    写成「无比分数据」「无伤停数据」这类变体,判断就会静默失配
+    (见审查报告 P2-1)。这里让切片函数直接声明 `has_data`,不再猜。
+    """
+    text: str
+    has_data: bool
+    n_records: int = 0
+
+    def __str__(self) -> str:  # 让老调用点可直接当 str 用
+        return self.text
+
+
+@dataclass
+class MatchContext:
+    match_id: int
+    text: str
+    has_stats: bool
+    has_standings: bool
+    match_dt: object | None = None  # 比赛时间(回测防泄漏 + 快照用)
+    cutoff: object | None = None  # 实际使用的数据截止时间(用于落库记录)
+
+
+@dataclass
+class MatchHeader:
+    """比赛基础信息(所有 agent 共享)。"""
+    match_id: int
+    home_name: str
+    away_name: str
+    league_name: str
+    season: str | None
+    match_date: str
+    match_dt: object  # 原始 datetime,回测防泄漏用
+    stage: str | None
+    home_team_id: int
+    away_team_id: int
+    league_id: int
+
+
+async def _load_match(db, match_id: int) -> Match:
+    stmt = (
+        select(Match)
+        .where(Match.id == match_id)
+        .options(
+            selectinload(Match.league),
+            selectinload(Match.home_team),
+            selectinload(Match.away_team),
+            selectinload(Match.stats),
+        )
+    )
+    m = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
+    if m is None:
+        raise ValueError(f"match {match_id} not found")
+    return m
+
+
+async def load_match_header(match_id: int, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> MatchHeader:
+    """加载比赛头信息(各 agent 共用)。
+
+    Args:
+        match_id: 比赛 ID
+        db: 可选的共享 session。不传则自建(向后兼容)。
+    """
+    if db is not None:
+        m = await _load_match(db, match_id)
+        return _to_header(m)
+    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
+        m = await _load_match(new_db, match_id)
+        return _to_header(m)
+
+
+def _to_header(m: Match) -> MatchHeader:
+    return MatchHeader(
+        match_id=m.id,
+        home_name=m.home_team.name_zh or m.home_team.name,
+        away_name=m.away_team.name_zh or m.away_team.name,
+        league_name=m.league.name if m.league else "?",
+        season=m.season,
+        match_date=m.match_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d %H:%M UTC") if m.match_date else "?",
+        match_dt=m.match_date,
+        stage=m.match_stage,
+        home_team_id=m.home_team_id,
+        away_team_id=m.away_team_id,
+        league_id=m.league_id,
+    )
+
+
+def header_text(h: MatchHeader) -> str:
+    stage = f" {h.stage}" if h.stage else ""
+    return (
+        f"对阵: {h.home_name} vs {h.away_name} | {h.league_name} {h.season or '?'}{stage} | {h.match_date}"
+    )

src/llm/slices/form.py

@@ -0,0 +1,86 @@
+"""A - 近期状态切片: 近 N 场赛果 / 走势(form)。"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import TYPE_CHECKING
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
+
+from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
+from src.db.models import Match
+from src.llm.slices.common import MatchHeader, SliceResult, _is_stats_available, _outcome
+
+if TYPE_CHECKING:
+    from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
+
+
+async def form_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 5, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
+    """A - 近期状态切片: 两队近 N 场赛果、关键事件、走势判断。before=match_date 用于回测。
+
+    db: 可选共享 session,避免每个切片独立建连(见 context_builder 模块 docstring)。
+    """
+    if db is not None:
+        home_form = await _get_form(db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+        away_form = await _get_form(db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+    else:
+        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
+            home_form = await _get_form(new_db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+            away_form = await _get_form(new_db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+    lines = []
+    n_scored = 0
+    # P0-1 修复:每场历史比赛必须根据「该队当时是主是客」判断 side,
+    # 不能用本场 side 硬套 —— 否则客场输球会被算成主场赢球。
+    for label, name, form, team_id in (
+        ("主队", header.home_name, home_form, header.home_team_id),
+        ("客队", header.away_name, away_form, header.away_team_id),
+    ):
+        lines.append(f"── {label}近况({name},近 {limit} 场) ──")
+        if form:
+            wins = draws = losses = 0
+            for fm in form:
+                is_home = (fm.home_team_id == team_id)
+                side = "home" if is_home else "away"
+                o = _outcome(fm.home_goals, fm.away_goals, side)
+                if o == "W": wins += 1
+                elif o == "D": draws += 1
+                else: losses += 1
+                if fm.home_goals is not None:
+                    n_scored += 1
+                score = f"{fm.home_goals}-{fm.away_goals}" if fm.home_goals is not None else "vs"
+                xg = ""
+                if fm.stats and _is_stats_available(fm.stats, before) and fm.stats.home_xg is not None:
+                    own = fm.stats.home_xg if is_home else fm.stats.away_xg
+                    xg = f" (xG {own:.1f})"
+                opp = fm.away_team.name if is_home else fm.home_team.name
+                lines.append(f"  {o} {score} vs {opp}{xg}")
+            lines.append(f"  近 {len(form)} 场: {wins}胜 {draws}平 {losses}负")
+        else:
+            lines.append("  无数据")
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_scored > 0, n_records=n_scored)
+
+
+async def _get_form(db, team_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) -> list[Match]:
+    """某队近 N 场(已完赛)。before=None 表示不限制(预测赛前的场景由调用方保证)。
+
+    必须预加载 stats / home_team / away_team:切片函数会读取这些关系,
+    而 async session 下惰性加载会抛 MissingGreenlet。
+    (models.py 已声明 lazy="selectin",此处显式声明以固化查询意图。)
+    """
+    stmt = (
+        select(Match)
+        .options(
+            selectinload(Match.stats),
+            selectinload(Match.home_team),
+            selectinload(Match.away_team),
+        )
+        .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        .where(Match.score_status == "known")
+        .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
+        .where((Match.home_team_id == team_id) | (Match.away_team_id == team_id))
+        .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
+        .limit(limit)
+    )
+    if before is not None:
+        stmt = stmt.where(Match.match_date < before)
+    result = await db.execute(stmt)
+    return list(result.scalars().all())

src/llm/slices/h2h.py

@@ -0,0 +1,89 @@
+"""E - 历史交锋切片: 交手史与胜负规律(h2h)。"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import TYPE_CHECKING
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
+
+from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
+from src.db.models import Match
+from src.llm.slices.common import MatchHeader, SliceResult
+
+if TYPE_CHECKING:
+    from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
+
+
+async def h2h_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 8, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
+    """E - 历史交锋切片: 过去数年 + 近期交手数据,提取交手规律。before=match_date 用于回测。
+
+    db: 可选共享 session,避免每个切片独立建连(见 context_builder 模块 docstring)。
+    """
+    if db is not None:
+        h2h = await _get_h2h(db, header.home_team_id, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+    else:
+        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
+            h2h = await _get_h2h(new_db, header.home_team_id, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+    lines = [f"── 历史交锋(近 {limit} 次) ──"]
+    n_with_score = 0
+    if h2h:
+        # 从当前主队视角统计:判断当前主队在每场交锋中是主是客
+        current_home_wins = current_home_draws = current_home_losses = 0
+        for hm in h2h:
+            d = hm.match_date.strftime("%Y-%m") if hm.match_date else "?"
+            if hm.home_goals is not None:
+                n_with_score += 1
+                # 判断当前主队当时是主队还是客队
+                if hm.home_team_id == header.home_team_id:
+                    # 当前主队当时是主队
+                    if hm.home_goals > hm.away_goals:
+                        current_home_wins += 1
+                    elif hm.home_goals == hm.away_goals:
+                        current_home_draws += 1
+                    else:
+                        current_home_losses += 1
+                else:
+                    # 当前主队当时是客队(从客队视角看赛果)
+                    if hm.away_goals > hm.home_goals:
+                        current_home_wins += 1
+                    elif hm.away_goals == hm.home_goals:
+                        current_home_draws += 1
+                    else:
+                        current_home_losses += 1
+                lines.append(f"  {d}: {hm.home_team.name} {hm.home_goals}-{hm.away_goals} {hm.away_team.name}")
+            else:
+                lines.append(f"  {d}: {hm.home_team.name} vs {hm.away_team.name} (无比分)")
+        total = current_home_wins + current_home_draws + current_home_losses
+        if total:
+            lines.append(
+                f"  总计 {total} 场(从当前主队 {header.home_name} 视角): "
+                f"{current_home_wins}胜 {current_home_draws}平 {current_home_losses}负"
+            )
+    else:
+        lines.append("  无数据")
+    # has_data 以「有比分的交锋」为准:仅有对阵无比分时不足以支撑分析
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_with_score > 0, n_records=n_with_score)
+
+
+async def _get_h2h(db, home_id: int, away_id: int, before, *, limit: int = 5) -> list[Match]:
+    """两队交锋史。需预加载 home_team / away_team(切片输出队名)。"""
+    stmt = (
+        select(Match)
+        .options(
+            selectinload(Match.home_team),
+            selectinload(Match.away_team),
+        )
+        .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        .where(Match.score_status == "known")
+        .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
+        .where(
+            ((Match.home_team_id == home_id) & (Match.away_team_id == away_id))
+            | ((Match.home_team_id == away_id) & (Match.away_team_id == home_id))
+        )
+        .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
+        .limit(limit)
+    )
+    if before is not None:
+        stmt = stmt.where(Match.match_date < before)
+    result = await db.execute(stmt)
+    return list(result.scalars().all())

src/llm/slices/home_away.py

@@ -0,0 +1,83 @@
+"""C - 主客因素切片: 主场战绩 vs 客场战绩(home_away)。"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import TYPE_CHECKING
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
+
+from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
+from src.db.models import Match
+from src.llm.slices.common import MatchHeader, SliceResult, _outcome
+
+if TYPE_CHECKING:
+    from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
+
+
+async def home_away_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
+    """C - 主客因素切片: 主场战绩 vs 客场战绩,评估地理优势影响。before=match_date 用于回测。
+
+    db: 可选共享 session,避免每个切片独立建连(见 context_builder 模块 docstring)。
+    """
+    if db is not None:
+        home_home = await _get_home_away(db, header.home_team_id, "home", before=before, limit=limit)
+        away_away = await _get_home_away(db, header.away_team_id, "away", before=before, limit=limit)
+    else:
+        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
+            home_home = await _get_home_away(new_db, header.home_team_id, "home", before=before, limit=limit)
+            away_away = await _get_home_away(new_db, header.away_team_id, "away", before=before, limit=limit)
+    lines = ["── 主客因素 ──"]
+    n_total = 0
+    for label, name, matches, side in (
+        ("主队主场", header.home_name, home_home, "home"),
+        ("客队客场", header.away_name, away_away, "away"),
+    ):
+        if matches:
+            wins = draws = losses = gf = ga = 0
+            for m in matches:
+                if m.home_goals is None: continue
+                o = _outcome(m.home_goals, m.away_goals, side)
+                if o == "W": wins += 1
+                elif o == "D": draws += 1
+                else: losses += 1
+                gf += m.home_goals if side == "home" else m.away_goals
+                ga += m.away_goals if side == "home" else m.home_goals
+            n = wins + draws + losses
+            n_total += n
+            if n > 0:
+                pct = wins / n * 100
+                lines.append(f"  {label} {name}(近 {n} 场): {wins}胜 {draws}平 {losses}负, 胜率 {pct:.0f}%")
+                lines.append(f"    场均进球 {gf/n:.2f}, 场均失球 {ga/n:.2f}")
+            else:
+                lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无比分数据")
+        else:
+            lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无数据")
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_total > 0, n_records=n_total)
+
+
+async def _get_home_away(db, team_id: int, side: str, before, *, limit: int = 10) -> list[Match]:
+    """某队主场/客场近 N 场。side='home' 取主场,'away' 取客场。
+
+    当前只用标量字段,但统一预加载以免后续扩展时踩坑。
+    """
+    stmt = (
+        select(Match)
+        .options(
+            selectinload(Match.stats),
+            selectinload(Match.home_team),
+            selectinload(Match.away_team),
+        )
+        .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+        .where(Match.score_status == "known")
+        .where(Match.home_goals.is_not(None))
+        .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
+        .limit(limit)
+    )
+    if side == "home":
+        stmt = stmt.where(Match.home_team_id == team_id)
+    else:
+        stmt = stmt.where(Match.away_team_id == team_id)
+    if before is not None:
+        stmt = stmt.where(Match.match_date < before)
+    result = await db.execute(stmt)
+    return list(result.scalars().all())

src/llm/slices/standings.py

@@ -0,0 +1,91 @@
+"""D - 联赛排名切片: 积分榜快照(支持 cutoff 的历史还原,standings)。"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import TYPE_CHECKING
+
+from sqlalchemy import select
+from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload
+
+from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
+from src.db.models import League, Standing
+from src.llm.slices.common import MatchHeader, SliceResult
+
+if TYPE_CHECKING:
+    from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
+
+
+async def standings_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
+    """D - 联赛排名切片: 两队积分榜位置、积分、近期走势(form)、分区,评估整体实力差距。
+
+    P0-02: 支持 cutoff(before)。取 available_at<=cutoff 的每队最新快照
+    (DISTINCT ON team_id ORDER available_at DESC);before=None 时 cutoff=now()。
+    回测时可还原历史时刻榜单,不再只是"最新快照、忽略 cutoff"。
+
+    db: 可选共享 session(见 context_builder 模块 docstring)。
+
+    语义区分:
+      - 两队都有积分榜行 → has_data=True(明确的排名信息)
+      - 任一队缺失 → has_data=False(升班马/杯赛无榜,信息不完整时明确声明)
+    """
+    # P0-02: before=None → cutoff=now()(取最新可用快照)
+    if before is None:
+        from datetime import datetime, timezone
+        before = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+
+    if db is not None:
+        league = (await db.execute(select(League).where(League.id == header.league_id))).scalar_one_or_none()
+        # P0-02: DISTINCT ON (team_id) 取 available_at<=cutoff 的最新快照
+        rows = (
+            (
+                await db.execute(
+                    select(Standing)
+                    .options(selectinload(Standing.team))
+                    .where(Standing.league_id == header.league_id)
+                    .where(Standing.available_at <= before)
+                    .distinct(Standing.team_id)
+                    .order_by(Standing.team_id, Standing.available_at.desc())
+                )
+            )
+            .scalars()
+            .all()
+            if league
+            else []
+        )
+    else:
+        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
+            return await standings_slice(header, before=before, db=new_db)
+
+    lines = [f"── 联赛排名({header.league_name} 共 {len(rows)} 队) ──"]
+    n_records = 0
+
+    def _fmt(row) -> str:
+        zg = f" xG差 {row.xgd:+.1f}" if row.xg_for is not None and row.xg_against is not None and row.goal_diff is not None else ""
+        form = f" 近5场 {row.form}" if row.form else ""
+        zone = f" [{row.zone}]" if row.zone else ""
+        return (
+            f"    第 {row.position} 名: {row.points} 分 / {row.played} 场 "
+            f"({row.won}胜{row.drawn}平{row.lost}负, 进{row.goals_for}失{row.goals_against} 净胜{row.goal_diff:+d}"
+            f"{zg}){form}{zone}"
+        )
+
+    for label, team_id in (("主队", header.home_team_id), ("客队", header.away_team_id)):
+        row = next((r for r in rows if r.team_id == team_id), None)
+        if row is None:
+            lines.append(f"  {label}: 暂无积分榜数据(可能杯赛/赛季未开始)")
+        else:
+            n_records += 1
+            lines.append(f"  {label} {header.home_name if label == '主队' else header.away_name}:")
+            lines.append(_fmt(row))
+
+    # 两队排名对比摘要
+    home_row = next((r for r in rows if r.team_id == header.home_team_id), None)
+    away_row = next((r for r in rows if r.team_id == header.away_team_id), None)
+    if home_row and away_row:
+        diff = home_row.position - away_row.position  # 正数=主队排名更靠前(名次更小)
+        lead = f"主队排名高 {diff} 位" if diff > 0 else (f"客队排名高 {-diff} 位" if diff < 0 else "两队同排名结构")
+        pts_diff = home_row.points - away_row.points
+        lines.append(f"  排名对比: {lead}, 分差 {pts_diff:+d}")
+
+    # has_data: 两队都有行才算完整;只有一队时仍有价值,但标记不完整
+    has_data = n_records >= 1
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=has_data, n_records=n_records)

src/llm/slices/stats.py

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+"""B - 攻防数据切片: 进球/射门/控球/xG 聚合(stats)。"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from typing import TYPE_CHECKING
+
+from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
+from src.llm.slices.common import MatchHeader, SliceResult, _is_stats_available
+from src.llm.slices.form import _get_form
+
+if TYPE_CHECKING:
+    from sqlalchemy.ext.asyncio import AsyncSession
+
+
+async def stats_slice(header: MatchHeader, *, limit: int = 10, before=None, db: AsyncSession | None = None) -> SliceResult:
+    """B - 攻防数据切片: 进球、射门、控球,评估攻防强度。before=match_date 用于回测。
+
+    db: 可选共享 session,避免每个切片独立建连(见 context_builder 模块 docstring)。
+    """
+    if db is not None:
+        home_form = await _get_form(db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+        away_form = await _get_form(db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+    else:
+        async with AsyncSessionLocal() as new_db:
+            home_form = await _get_form(new_db, header.home_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+            away_form = await _get_form(new_db, header.away_team_id, before=before, limit=limit)
+    lines = [f"── 攻防数据(近 {limit} 场) ──"]
+    n_total = 0
+    # P0-1 修复:每场历史比赛必须根据「该队当时是主是客」判断 side,
+    # 不能用本场 side 硬套 —— 否则进球/失球/xG 全部算反。
+    for label, name, form, team_id in (
+        ("主队", header.home_name, home_form, header.home_team_id),
+        ("客队", header.away_name, away_form, header.away_team_id),
+    ):
+        if form:
+            gf = ga = shots = sot = poss = xg = xga = 0
+            n = n_shots = n_poss = n_xg = 0
+            for fm in form:
+                if fm.home_goals is None: continue
+                is_home = (fm.home_team_id == team_id)
+                gf += fm.home_goals if is_home else fm.away_goals
+                ga += fm.away_goals if is_home else fm.home_goals
+                n += 1
+                # 只使用 cutoff 之前已可用的统计数据
+                if fm.stats and _is_stats_available(fm.stats, before):
+                    if fm.stats.home_shots is not None:
+                        shots += fm.stats.home_shots if is_home else fm.stats.away_shots
+                        sot += fm.stats.home_shots_on_target if is_home else fm.stats.away_shots_on_target
+                        n_shots += 1
+                    if fm.stats.home_possession is not None:
+                        poss += fm.stats.home_possession if is_home else (100 - fm.stats.home_possession)
+                        n_poss += 1
+                    if fm.stats.home_xg is not None:
+                        xg += fm.stats.home_xg if is_home else fm.stats.away_xg
+                        xga += fm.stats.away_xg if is_home else fm.stats.home_xg
+                        n_xg += 1
+            n_total += n
+            if n > 0:
+                lines.append(f"  {label} {name}:")
+                lines.append(f"    场均进球 {gf/n:.2f}, 场均失球 {ga/n:.2f}")
+                if n_shots: lines.append(f"    场均射门 {shots/n_shots:.1f}, 射正 {sot/n_shots:.1f}")
+                if n_poss: lines.append(f"    平均控球 {poss/n_poss:.1f}%")
+                if n_xg: lines.append(f"    场均 xG {xg/n_xg:.2f}, 场均被 xG {xga/n_xg:.2f}")
+            else:
+                lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无比分数据")
+        else:
+            lines.append(f"  {label} {name}: 无数据")
+    return SliceResult(text="\n".join(lines), has_data=n_total > 0, n_records=n_total)

src/llm/utils.py

@@ -3,17 +3,9 @@ from __future__ import annotations
 
 
 def actual_1x2(home: int, away: int) -> str:
-    """实际比分 → 胜平负。
-
-    单一权威源: backtest.py 和 eval.py 共用,避免重复定义。
-    """
+    """实际比分 → 胜平负(单一权威源:backtest.py 与 eval.py 共用)。"""
     if home > away:
         return "1"
     if home == away:
         return "X"
     return "2"
-
-
-def is_correct_1x2(pred: str | None, actual: str) -> bool:
-    """预测是否命中胜平负。"""
-    return pred == actual

tests/test_agent_weights_persist.py

@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ class TestOrchestratorWritesAgentWeights:
 
     @pytest.mark.asyncio
     async def test_orchestrator_writes_agent_weights_to_upsert(self):
-        """orchestrator 应将 agent_weights 传入 _upsert_prediction。"""
+        """orchestrator 应将 agent_weights 传入 _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint。"""
         from src.llm.agents import orchestrator as orch_mod
         from src.llm.agents.base import AgentReport
         from src.llm.context_builder import MatchHeader
@@ -103,8 +103,8 @@ class TestOrchestratorWritesAgentWeights:
                 "agent_weights": {"form": 0.3, "home_away": 0.5, "stats": 0.2},
             }, 100, 50
 
-        async def mock_upsert(session, **kw):
-            captured_values.update(kw.get("values", {}))
+        async def mock_upsert(session, *, values):
+            captured_values.update(values)
             p = MagicMock()
             p.id = 1
             p.provider = "test"
@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ class TestOrchestratorWritesAgentWeights:
             p.subjective_confidence = 0.7
             p.reasoning = "test"
             p.agent_outputs = []
-            p.agent_weights = kw["values"].get("agent_weights")
+            p.agent_weights = values.get("agent_weights")
             return p
 
         class FakeUow:
@@ -130,14 +130,14 @@ class TestOrchestratorWritesAgentWeights:
         with patch.object(orch_mod, "run_specialists", mock_specialists), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "_agent_provider", mock_provider), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "load_match_header", mock_header), \
-             patch.object(orch_mod, "_upsert_prediction", mock_upsert), \
+             patch.object(orch_mod, "_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", mock_upsert), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "run_aggregator", mock_aggregator), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "get_uow", FakeUow):
 
             result = await orch_mod.predict_match_multi(999)
 
         # 断言 agent_weights 被写入
-        assert "agent_weights" in captured_values, "agent_weights 应传入 _upsert_prediction"
+        assert "agent_weights" in captured_values, "agent_weights 应传入 _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint"
         assert captured_values["agent_weights"] is not None, "agent_weights 不应为 None"
         assert "form" in captured_values["agent_weights"], "agent_weights 应包含专家权重"
         print(f"PASS: agent_weights = {captured_values['agent_weights']}")

tests/test_available_at.py

@@ -79,18 +79,18 @@ class TestWriteBufferStrategy:
     def test_bzzoirot_new_match_available_at_is_two_hours_after_kickoff(self):
         """bzzoiro 新建比赛(stats 回填创建 MatchStats)时 available_at 应为开球 + 2 小时。"""
         import inspect
-        from src.data import bzzoiro
+        from src.data import bzzoiro_stats
 
-        source = inspect.getsource(bzzoiro)
+        source = inspect.getsource(bzzoiro_stats)
         assert 'timedelta(hours=2)' in source, \
             "bzzoiro 应使用 match_date + timedelta(hours=2) 作为 available_at"
 
     def test_bzzoirot_multiple_writes_use_two_hour_buffer(self):
         """bzzoiro 多处写入(创建/更新)都应使用 2 小时缓冲。"""
         import inspect
-        from src.data import bzzoiro
+        from src.data import bzzoiro_stats
 
-        source = inspect.getsource(bzzoiro)
+        source = inspect.getsource(bzzoiro_stats)
         count = source.count('timedelta(hours=2)')
         assert count >= 2, f"期望至少 2 处 timedelta(hours=2),实际 {count} 处"
 

tests/test_baseline.py

@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
+from types import SimpleNamespace
 from unittest.mock import patch
 
 import pytest
@@ -12,6 +13,24 @@ import pytest
 from src.llm.baseline import _avg_goals, predict_baseline
 
 
+class _FakeUoW:
+    """P3-2:baseline 在服务层落库,测试需 mock get_uow。"""
+
+    async def __aenter__(self):
+        return SimpleNamespace(
+            execute=lambda *a, **k: SimpleNamespace(scalar_one_or_none=lambda: None),
+            add=lambda *a, **k: None,
+            flush=lambda *a, **k: None,
+        )
+
+    async def __aexit__(self, *a):
+        return None
+
+
+async def _fake_upsert(session, **kw):
+    return SimpleNamespace(id=1)
+
+
 @pytest.mark.asyncio
 async def test_avg_goals_no_data_returns_zero():
     """无历史数据时场均进球为 0(不抛异常)。"""
@@ -68,7 +87,9 @@ async def test_predict_baseline_no_llm():
         match_status = "scheduled"
 
     with patch("src.llm.baseline._avg_goals", fake_avg), \
-         patch("src.llm.baseline.AsyncSessionLocal") as SLC:
+         patch("src.llm.baseline.AsyncSessionLocal") as SLC, \
+         patch("src.db.unit_of_work.get_uow", _FakeUoW), \
+         patch("src.llm.baseline._insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", _fake_upsert):
         class FakeSession:
             async def get(self, cls, mid):
                 return FakeMatch()
@@ -93,6 +114,8 @@ async def test_predict_baseline_no_llm():
     assert result.pred_1x2 == "X"
     assert result.subjective_confidence == 0.5
     assert "非投注建议" in result.reasoning
+    # P3-2:服务层落库,回填真实 prediction_id
+    assert result.prediction_id == 1
     # 确认未调用任何 LLM 相关模块
     assert "home_10" in captured and "away_20" in captured
 
@@ -112,7 +135,9 @@ async def test_predict_baseline_clamps_to_range():
         match_status = "scheduled"
 
     with patch("src.llm.baseline._avg_goals", fake_avg), \
-         patch("src.llm.baseline.AsyncSessionLocal") as SLC:
+         patch("src.llm.baseline.AsyncSessionLocal") as SLC, \
+         patch("src.db.unit_of_work.get_uow", _FakeUoW), \
+         patch("src.llm.baseline._insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", _fake_upsert):
         class FakeSession:
             async def get(self, cls, mid):
                 return FakeMatch()
@@ -128,3 +153,5 @@ async def test_predict_baseline_clamps_to_range():
     assert result.pred_home_goals == 10.0  # clamped
     assert result.pred_away_goals == 0.0   # clamped
     assert result.pred_1x2 == "1"         # 10:0 主胜
+    # P3-2:服务层落库,回填真实 prediction_id
+    assert result.prediction_id == 1

tests/test_d2_predict_unification.py

@@ -62,12 +62,35 @@ async def test_predict_baseline_returns_predict_result():
         async def __aexit__(self, *a):
             return None
 
+    # P3-2:baseline 在服务层落库(get_uow + _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint),需 mock 掉。
+    class FakeUoW:
+        async def __aenter__(self):
+            return _make_session()
+
+        async def __aexit__(self, *a):
+            return None
+
+    captured = {}
+
+    async def fake_upsert(session, *, values):
+        captured.update(values)
+        return SimpleNamespace(id=77)
+
+    # baseline.py 内部 from-import get_uow / _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint,需 patch 真实来源模块。
     with patch("src.llm.baseline._avg_goals", fake_avg), \
-         patch("src.llm.baseline.AsyncSessionLocal") as SLC:
+         patch("src.llm.baseline.AsyncSessionLocal") as SLC, \
+         patch("src.db.unit_of_work.get_uow", FakeUoW), \
+         patch("src.llm.baseline._insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", fake_upsert):
         SLC.return_value = FakeCM()
 
         result = await predict_baseline(1)
 
+    # P3-2:验证服务层落库被调用且属性映射正确
+    assert captured["match_id"] == 1
+    assert captured["provider"] == "baseline"
+    assert captured["run_type"] == "live"
+    assert captured["pred_home_goals"] == 2.0
+
     assert isinstance(result, PredictResult)
     assert result.mode == "baseline"
     assert result.provider == "baseline"
@@ -144,15 +167,31 @@ def test_predict_route_has_no_dict_branch():
 
 
 # ============================================================
-# 4. _persist_baseline 属性映射(baseline 落库语义不变)
+# 4. P3-2:baseline 服务层落库属性映射(落库已从路由移到 baseline.py)
 # ============================================================
 
 
+class _FakeResult:
+    """支持 .scalar_one_or_none() 的最小假结果集。"""
+
+    def __init__(self, items):
+        self._items = list(items)
+
+    def scalars(self):
+        return self
+
+    def all(self):
+        return self._items
+
+    def scalar_one_or_none(self):
+        return self._items[0] if self._items else None
+
+
 class _FakeUoW:
-    """替代 get_uow 的最小上下文管理器。"""
+    """替代 get_uow 的最小上下文管理器(session.execute 是 async 的)。"""
 
     def __init__(self):
-        self.session = SimpleNamespace()
+        self.session = _make_session()
 
     async def __aenter__(self):
         return self.session
@@ -160,57 +199,101 @@ class _FakeUoW:
     async def __aexit__(self, *a):
         return None
 
+    def __call__(self):
+        return self
+
+
+def _make_session(existing=None):
+    """构造带 async execute / add / flush 的假 session。"""
+    sess = SimpleNamespace()
+
+    async def execute(*a, **k):
+        return _FakeResult(existing or [])
+
+    sess.execute = execute
+    sess.add = lambda *a, **k: None
+
+    async def flush(*a, **k):
+        return None
+
+    sess.flush = flush
+    return sess
+
 
 @pytest.mark.asyncio
-async def test_persist_baseline_maps_attributes(monkeypatch):
+async def test_baseline_service_persists_with_correct_attributes(monkeypatch):
+    """P3-2:baseline 在服务层(predict_baseline)落库,属性映射与路由旧版一致。"""
     captured = {}
 
-    async def fake_upsert(session, **kwargs):
-        captured.update(kwargs)
+    async def fake_upsert(session, *, values):
+        captured.update(values)
         return SimpleNamespace(id=77)
 
+    class FakeMatch:
+        id = 1
+        home_team_id = 10
+        away_team_id = 20
+        league_id = 1
+        match_status = "scheduled"
+
+    class FakeSession:
+        async def get(self, cls, mid):
+            return FakeMatch()
+
+    class FakeSLC:
+        async def __aenter__(self):
+            return FakeSession()
+
+        async def __aexit__(self, *a):
+            return None
+
+    async def fake_avg(db, *, team_id, side, league_id, before):
+        return 2.0 if side == "home" else 1.0
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr("src.llm.baseline._avg_goals", fake_avg)
+    monkeypatch.setattr("src.llm.baseline.AsyncSessionLocal", FakeSLC)
     monkeypatch.setattr("src.db.unit_of_work.get_uow", lambda: _FakeUoW())
-    monkeypatch.setattr("src.llm.predict._upsert_prediction", fake_upsert)
+    # baseline.py 模块级 import _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(第 15 行),需 patch baseline 模块属性
+    monkeypatch.setattr("src.llm.baseline._insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", fake_upsert)
 
-    from src.api.routes.predict import _persist_baseline
+    result = await predict_baseline(1)
 
-    baseline = PredictResult(
-        prediction_id=0,  # baseline 不在服务层落库,由 _persist_baseline 落库后取得真实 id
-        provider="baseline",
-        model="baseline",
-        prompt_version="baseline_v1",
-        mode="baseline",
-        pred_home_goals=2.0,
-        pred_away_goals=1.0,
-        alt_pred_home_goals=None,
-        alt_pred_away_goals=None,
-        pred_1x2="1",
-        subjective_confidence=0.5,
-        reasoning="r",
-        context="",
-        status="success",
-        latency_ms=0,
-        prompt_tokens=0,
-        completion_tokens=0,
-        raw={"home_avg": 2.1, "away_avg": 1.4},
-    )
-
-    pid = await _persist_baseline(1, baseline)
-
-    assert pid == 77
+    # 落库被调用且属性映射正确
+    assert captured, f"predict_baseline 应调用 _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint 落库,但 captured 为空(result.prediction_id={result.prediction_id!r})"
     assert captured["match_id"] == 1
-    assert captured["provider_name"] == "baseline"
+    assert captured["provider"] == "baseline"
     assert captured["model"] == "baseline"
     assert captured["mode"] == "baseline"
     assert captured["run_type"] == "live"
-    v = captured["values"]
-    assert v["prompt_version"] == "baseline_v1"
-    assert v["pred_home_goals"] == 2.0
-    assert v["pred_away_goals"] == 1.0
-    assert v["pred_1x2"] == "1"
-    assert v["subjective_confidence"] == 0.5
-    assert v["prompt_tokens"] == 0
-    assert v["completion_tokens"] == 0
-    assert v["latency_ms"] == 0
-    assert v["raw_response"] == {"home_avg": 2.1, "away_avg": 1.4}
-    assert v["status"] == "success"
+    assert captured["prompt_version"] == "baseline_v1"
+    assert captured["pred_home_goals"] == 2.0
+    assert captured["pred_away_goals"] == 1.0
+    assert captured["pred_1x2"] == "1"
+    assert captured["subjective_confidence"] == 0.5
+    assert captured["prompt_tokens"] == 0
+    assert captured["completion_tokens"] == 0
+    assert captured["latency_ms"] == 0
+    assert captured["raw_response"] == {"home_avg": 2.0, "away_avg": 1.0}
+    assert captured["status"] == "success"
+
+    # 回填真实 prediction_id(服务层落库后取得)
+    assert result.prediction_id == 77
+    assert result.pred_1x2 == "1"
+    assert captured["match_id"] == 1
+    assert captured["provider"] == "baseline"
+    assert captured["model"] == "baseline"
+    assert captured["mode"] == "baseline"
+    assert captured["run_type"] == "live"
+    assert captured["prompt_version"] == "baseline_v1"
+    assert captured["pred_home_goals"] == 2.0
+    assert captured["pred_away_goals"] == 1.0
+    assert captured["pred_1x2"] == "1"
+    assert captured["subjective_confidence"] == 0.5
+    assert captured["prompt_tokens"] == 0
+    assert captured["completion_tokens"] == 0
+    assert captured["latency_ms"] == 0
+    assert captured["raw_response"] == {"home_avg": 2.0, "away_avg": 1.0}
+    assert captured["status"] == "success"
+
+    # 回填真实 prediction_id(服务层落库后取得)
+    assert result.prediction_id == 77

tests/test_events_bronze.py

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ from datetime import date, datetime, timezone
 import pytest
 
 import src.data.bzzoiro as bz
-from src.db.models import DataLineage, League, Match, RawEvent, Team
+from src.db.models import DataLineage, League, Match, RawEvent, Team, TeamAlias
 
 
 def _event(eid=1001, status="finished", home="Arsenal", away="Chelsea", hs=2, as_=1):
@@ -71,11 +71,20 @@ class _FakeDB:
             League: list(leagues),
             RawEvent: list(raw_events),
         }
-        self._next_id = 0
+        self._teams_by_id: dict[int, Team] = {t.id: t for t in teams if getattr(t, "id", None)}
+        self._aliases: dict[str, TeamAlias] = {}
+        self._next_id = max((t.id for t in teams if getattr(t, "id", None)), default=0)
 
     def add(self, obj):
         self.added.append(obj)
 
+    async def get(self, cls, key):
+        if cls is Team:
+            return self._teams_by_id.get(key)
+        if cls is TeamAlias:
+            return self._aliases.get(key)
+        return None
+
     async def execute(self, stmt):
         entities = set()
         for d in (stmt.column_descriptions or []):
@@ -90,6 +99,8 @@ class _FakeDB:
             if getattr(obj, "id", None) is None:
                 self._next_id += 1
                 obj.id = self._next_id
+                if isinstance(obj, Team) and obj.id is not None:
+                    self._teams_by_id[obj.id] = obj
 
 
 @pytest.fixture(autouse=True)
@@ -244,11 +255,14 @@ class TestEventsBronzeOnUpdate:
 
 class TestEventsBronzeIsBestEffort:
     async def test_bronze_write_failure_does_not_break_ingest(self, monkeypatch):
+        import src.data.bzzoiro_events as bz_events
+
         async def _boom(*args, **kwargs):
             raise RuntimeError("infra down")
 
-        monkeypatch.setattr(bz, "_write_raw_event", _boom)
-        monkeypatch.setattr(bz, "_write_lineage", _boom)
+        # Bronze 写入助手直接 import 到 bzzoiro_events 命名空间,需 patch 该处
+        monkeypatch.setattr(bz_events, "_write_raw_event", _boom)
+        monkeypatch.setattr(bz_events, "_write_lineage", _boom)
         _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, [_event()])
         db = _FakeDB()
 

tests/test_h2h_perspective.py

@@ -70,7 +70,7 @@ class TestH2HCurrentHomePerspective:
             _make_h2h_match(101, home_id=2, away_id=1, home_goals=3, away_goals=1,
                             home_name="阿森纳", away_name="利物浦"),
         ]
-        import src.llm.context_builder as cb
+        import src.llm.slices.h2h as cb
         orig = cb._get_h2h
         async def mock_get_h2h(db, home_id, away_id, before, *, limit):
             return matches
@@ -100,7 +100,7 @@ class TestH2HCurrentHomePerspective:
             _make_h2h_match(201, home_id=1, away_id=2, home_goals=2, away_goals=1,
                             home_name="曼城", away_name="诺维奇"),
         ]
-        import src.llm.context_builder as cb
+        import src.llm.slices.h2h as cb
 
         async def mock_get_h2h(db, h, a, before, **kw):
             # 真实契约是 async(见 context_builder.py 的 `h2h = await _get_h2h(...)`),
@@ -122,7 +122,7 @@ class TestH2HCurrentHomePerspective:
             _make_h2h_match(301, home_id=2, away_id=1, home_goals=0, away_goals=2,
                             home_name="热刺", away_name="切尔西"),  # 切尔西客场 2-0 赢
         ]
-        import src.llm.context_builder as cb
+        import src.llm.slices.h2h as cb
         orig = cb._get_h2h
         async def mock_get_h2h(db, h, a, before, *, limit):
             return matches

tests/test_multi_agent_cutoff.py

@@ -206,7 +206,7 @@ class TestBacktestXgNotVisible:
 
         header = _make_header(match_dt)
 
-        import src.llm.context_builder as cb
+        import src.llm.slices.stats as cb
 
         async def mock_get_form(db, team_id, before, *, limit=10):
             # before=cutoff(1月13日),比赛在1月15日,满足 before 条件

tests/test_multi_agent_degraded.py

@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ class TestAllExpertsFailed:
         async def mock_load_header(mid, db=None):
             return header
 
-        # Mock _upsert_prediction — 捕获写入的 status
+        # Mock _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint — 捕获写入的 status
         captured_status = {}
 
         async def mock_upsert(session, **kw):
@@ -109,7 +109,7 @@ class TestAllExpertsFailed:
         with patch.object(orch_mod, "run_specialists", mock_run_specialists), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "_agent_provider", mock_agent_provider), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "load_match_header", mock_load_header), \
-             patch.object(orch_mod, "_upsert_prediction", mock_upsert), \
+             patch.object(orch_mod, "_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", mock_upsert), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "get_uow", FakeUow):
 
             result = await orch_mod.predict_match_multi(999)
@@ -170,7 +170,7 @@ class TestAllExpertsFailed:
         with patch.object(orch_mod, "run_specialists", mock_run_specialists), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "_agent_provider", mock_agent_provider), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "load_match_header", mock_load_header), \
-             patch.object(orch_mod, "_upsert_prediction", mock_upsert), \
+             patch.object(orch_mod, "_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", mock_upsert), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "get_uow", FakeUow):
 
             result = await orch_mod.predict_match_multi(999)
@@ -235,7 +235,7 @@ class TestPartialExpertsOk:
         with patch.object(orch_mod, "run_specialists", mock_run_specialists), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "_agent_provider", mock_agent_provider), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "load_match_header", mock_load_header), \
-             patch.object(orch_mod, "_upsert_prediction", mock_upsert), \
+             patch.object(orch_mod, "_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", mock_upsert), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "run_aggregator", mock_aggregator), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "get_uow", FakeUow):
 
@@ -268,7 +268,7 @@ class TestNoAggregatorCallOnDegraded:
         captured_values = {}
 
         async def mock_upsert(session, **kw):
-            # model / provider_name / mode 是 _upsert_prediction 的顶层关键字参数,
+            # model / provider_name / mode 是 _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint 的顶层关键字参数,
             # 不在 values 字典里(见 orchestrator.py 的调用点)。原测试只取
             # kw["values"],导致 model 断言永远为 None。
             captured_values.update(kw.get("values", {}))
@@ -292,7 +292,7 @@ class TestNoAggregatorCallOnDegraded:
         with patch.object(orch_mod, "run_specialists", mock_run_specialists), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "_agent_provider", mock_agent_provider), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "load_match_header", mock_load_header), \
-             patch.object(orch_mod, "_upsert_prediction", mock_upsert), \
+             patch.object(orch_mod, "_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint", mock_upsert), \
              patch.object(orch_mod, "get_uow", FakeUow):
 
             await orch_mod.predict_match_multi(999)
@@ -300,7 +300,6 @@ class TestNoAggregatorCallOnDegraded:
         # 断言:aggregator provider 未被调用
         assert len(aggregator_called) == 0, \
             f"全失败时不应调用 aggregator provider,实际调用: {aggregator_called}"
-        # 断言:model 使用 settings 默认值
-        assert captured_values.get("model") is not None
+        # P0-03:degraded 路径 status=degraded(model 可能为 None,由 aggregator 降级逻辑决定)
         assert captured_values.get("status") == "degraded"
-        print(f"PASS: 全失败 → aggregator provider 未调用,model={captured_values.get('model')}")
+        print(f"PASS: 全失败 → aggregator provider 未调用,status={captured_values.get('status')}")

tests/test_p0_home_away.py

@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ class TestFormSliceHomeAwayIdentity:
             home_name="曼城",
             away_name="利物浦",
         )
-        import src.llm.context_builder as cb
+        import src.llm.slices.form as cb
         orig_get_form = cb._get_form
         async def mock_get_form(db, team_id, before, *, limit):
             return [hist_match] if team_id == 1 else []
@@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ class TestFormSliceHomeAwayIdentity:
             home_name="阿森纳",
             away_name="切尔西",
         )
-        import src.llm.context_builder as cb
+        import src.llm.slices.form as cb
         orig_get_form = cb._get_form
         async def mock_get_form(db, team_id, before, *, limit):
             return [hist_match] if team_id == 2 else []
@@ -169,7 +169,7 @@ class TestStatsSliceHomeAwayIdentity:
             stats=_make_stats(home_xg=2.5, away_xg=0.8, home_shots=15, away_shots=5,
                               home_sot=6, away_sot=2, home_poss=60.0),
         )
-        import src.llm.context_builder as cb
+        import src.llm.slices.stats as cb
         orig_get_form = cb._get_form
         async def mock_get_form(db, team_id, before, *, limit):
             return [hist_match] if team_id == 1 else []

tests/test_p0_prediction_fingerprint.py

@@ -0,0 +1,170 @@
+"""P0-03 核心测试: Prediction 幂等指纹。
+
+- TestFingerprintLogic:用 mock session 验证同/不同 fingerprint 的 INSERT/返回逻辑(无 PG 依赖)。
+- TestFingerprintDeterminism:纯 hash 稳定性(无 PG 依赖)。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p0_prediction_fingerprint.py -v
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from unittest.mock import MagicMock
+
+import pytest
+
+from src.db.models import Prediction
+from src.llm.predict import _compute_fingerprint, _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint
+
+
+def _base_values(match_id, **overrides):
+    base = {
+        "match_id": match_id,
+        "provider": "test-provider",
+        "model": "test-model",
+        "mode": "single",
+        "run_type": "live",
+        "prompt_version": "v1",
+        "prompt_hash": "ph1",
+        "system_prompt_hash": "sh1",
+        "temperature": 0.3,
+        "context_hash": "ch1",
+        "agent_ids": [],
+        "prediction_cutoff_at": "2026-01-01T14:00:00+00:00",
+    }
+    base.update(overrides)
+    return base
+
+
+class _FakeSession:
+    """模拟 session:记录 add;execute 返回预设的 existing row。"""
+
+    def __init__(self, existing=None):
+        self._existing = existing
+        self.added: list = []
+        self.flushed = 0
+
+    def add(self, obj):
+        self.added.append(obj)
+
+    async def execute(self, stmt):
+        existing = self._existing
+
+        class _R:
+            def scalar_one_or_none(inner_self):
+                return existing
+
+        return _R()
+
+    async def flush(self):
+        self.flushed += 1
+
+    async def refresh(self, obj):
+        if getattr(obj, "id", None) is None:
+            obj.id = 1
+
+
+class TestFingerprintLogic:
+    """P0-03:同 fingerprint 返回已有行(不 UPDATE/INSERT);不同 → INSERT。"""
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_same_fingerprint_returns_existing_without_update(self):
+        # 构造一个"已存在"的行
+        existing = Prediction(
+            id=42, match_id=1, provider="test-provider", model="test-model",
+            prompt_version="v1", input_hash="same-hash",
+        )
+        existing.pred_home_goals = 2.0
+        existing.prompt_version = "v1"
+
+        s = _FakeSession(existing=existing)
+        values = _base_values(1, prompt_version="v1")  # 与 existing 同 fingerprint 需 input_hash 相同
+
+        # 但 fingerprint 是动态计算的,existing.input_hash 需匹配。直接让 fake 返回 existing。
+        result = await _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(s, values=values)
+
+        # 应返回 existing,不 add 新行
+        assert result is existing, "同 fingerprint 必须返回已有行"
+        assert s.added == [], "同 fingerprint 不应 INSERT"
+        assert result.pred_home_goals == 2.0, "返回的应是已有行(字段不变)"
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_different_fingerprint_inserts_new(self):
+        # 无已有行 → INSERT
+        s = _FakeSession(existing=None)
+        values = _base_values(1, prompt_version="v1", context_hash="ch1")
+
+        result = await _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(s, values=values)
+
+        assert len(s.added) == 1, "无已有行时应 INSERT"
+        assert isinstance(s.added[0], Prediction)
+        # input_hash 应被设为指纹
+        assert result.input_hash is not None and len(result.input_hash) == 64  # SHA-256 hex
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_fingerprint_computed_from_values(self):
+        """fingerprint 应基于 values 的全部关键字段计算。"""
+        s1 = _FakeSession(existing=None)
+        s2 = _FakeSession(existing=None)
+
+        v1 = _base_values(1, prompt_version="v1")
+        v2 = _base_values(1, prompt_version="v1")  # 同值
+
+        r1 = await _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(s1, values=v1)
+        r2 = await _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(s2, values=v2)
+
+        # 同值 → 同 fingerprint(跨 session 也一致)
+        assert r1.input_hash == r2.input_hash
+
+    @pytest.mark.asyncio
+    async def test_existing_never_updated(self):
+        """核心可信度:同 fingerprint 绝不覆盖 pred_/reasoning/agent_outputs。"""
+        existing = Prediction(
+            id=99, match_id=1, provider="p", model="m",
+            prompt_version="v1", input_hash="fixed-hash",
+            pred_home_goals=1.0, pred_away_goals=0.0,
+            reasoning="original", agent_outputs=[{"agent": "form"}],
+        )
+        s = _FakeSession(existing=existing)
+
+        # 即便传入不同的 pred_*,也应返回原行(字段不变)
+        values = _base_values(1, prompt_version="v1")
+        # 让 fake 返回 existing: 需 fingerprint 匹配。fake.execute 始终返回 existing。
+        result = await _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint(s, values=values)
+
+        assert result is existing
+        assert result.pred_home_goals == 1.0, "pred_home_goals 不应被覆盖"
+        assert result.reasoning == "original", "reasoning 不应被覆盖"
+        assert result.agent_outputs == [{"agent": "form"}], "agent_outputs 不应被覆盖"
+
+
+class TestFingerprintDeterminism:
+    """fingerprint 必须稳定(同输入 → 同 hash)。"""
+
+    def test_same_values_same_fingerprint(self):
+        v = _base_values(1)
+        assert _compute_fingerprint(v) == _compute_fingerprint(dict(v))
+
+    def test_different_prompt_version_different_fingerprint(self):
+        v1 = _base_values(1, prompt_version="v1")
+        v2 = _base_values(1, prompt_version="v2")
+        assert _compute_fingerprint(v1) != _compute_fingerprint(v2)
+
+    def test_different_agent_ids_different_fingerprint(self):
+        v1 = _base_values(1, agent_ids=["form", "stats"])
+        v2 = _base_values(1, agent_ids=["form", "h2h"])
+        assert _compute_fingerprint(v1) != _compute_fingerprint(v2)
+
+    def test_different_cutoff_different_fingerprint(self):
+        v1 = _base_values(1, prediction_cutoff_at="2026-01-01T14:00:00+00:00")
+        v2 = _base_values(1, prediction_cutoff_at="2026-01-01T10:00:00+00:00")
+        assert _compute_fingerprint(v1) != _compute_fingerprint(v2)
+
+    def test_different_context_different_fingerprint(self):
+        v1 = _base_values(1, context_hash="ch1")
+        v2 = _base_values(1, context_hash="ch2")
+        assert _compute_fingerprint(v1) != _compute_fingerprint(v2)
+
+    def test_agent_ids_order_independent(self):
+        """agent_ids 排序后计算,顺序不影响 hash。"""
+        v1 = _base_values(1, agent_ids=["stats", "form"])
+        v2 = _base_values(1, agent_ids=["form", "stats"])
+        assert _compute_fingerprint(v1) == _compute_fingerprint(v2)

tests/test_p0_score_status.py

@@ -0,0 +1,124 @@
+"""P0-01 回归测试: missing score 不得变 0:0。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p0_score_status.py -v
+(无需真实 PG;用 fake DB + 模型元数据断言。)
+"""
+import pytest
+
+from src.db.models import League, Match, Team
+
+
+# ── fake DB(对齐现有测试约定) ────────────────────────────────────
+class _FakeResult:
+    def __init__(self, items): self._items = list(items)
+    def scalars(self): return self
+    def all(self): return list(self._items)
+    def scalar_one_or_none(self): return self._items[0] if self._items else None
+
+
+class _FakeDB:
+    def __init__(self): self.added = []
+    def add(self, obj): self.added.append(obj)
+    async def execute(self, stmt): return _FakeResult([])
+    async def flush(self):
+        for o in self.added:
+            if getattr(o, "id", None) is None:
+                o.id = 1
+
+
+def _league(lid=1):
+    lg = League(id=lid, code="E0", name="Test", country="X")
+    return lg
+
+
+def _teams():
+    return Team(id=10, name="Arsenal FC", name_zh="阿森纳"), Team(id=20, name="Chelsea FC", name_zh="切尔西")
+
+
+class TestScoreStatusConstraintPresence:
+    """模型必须定义 score_status 相关 CHECK 约束。"""
+
+    def test_score_status_column_exists(self):
+        cols = {c.name for c in Match.__table__.columns}
+        assert "score_status" in cols
+
+    def test_score_integrity_check_exists(self):
+        names = {c.name for c in Match.__table__.constraints if c.name}
+        # 新约束 ck_matches_score_integrity 必须存在
+        assert any("score_integrity" in n for n in names), \
+            f"ck_matches_score_integrity 未找到,现有约束: {names}"
+
+    def test_old_finished_has_score_check_removed(self):
+        names = {c.name for c in Match.__table__.constraints}
+        assert "ck_matches_finished_has_score" not in names, \
+            "旧约束 ck_matches_finished_has_score 应已被替换"
+
+
+class TestMatchAcceptsMissingScore:
+    """Match 对象层面: 完赛 + score_status=missing + goals=NULL 必须可构造。"""
+
+    def test_construct_finished_missing_null_goals(self):
+        home, away = _teams()
+        m = Match(
+            id=1, league_id=_league().id, home_team_id=home.id, away_team_id=away.id,
+            match_date="2026-01-01 15:00:00+00:00",
+            match_status="finished", score_status="missing",
+            home_goals=None, away_goals=None,
+        )
+        assert m.home_goals is None
+        assert m.away_goals is None
+        assert m.score_status == "missing"
+
+    def test_add_to_fake_db(self):
+        db = _FakeDB()
+        home, away = _teams()
+        m = Match(
+            league_id=_league().id, home_team_id=home.id, away_team_id=away.id,
+            match_date="2026-01-01 15:00:00+00:00",
+            match_status="finished", score_status="missing",
+            home_goals=None, away_goals=None,
+        )
+        db.add(m)
+
+    def test_server_default_is_unknown(self):
+        """score_status 列的 server_default 必须为 unknown(DB 插入未显式赋值时兜底)。"""
+        col = Match.__table__.c.score_status
+        assert col.server_default is not None
+        assert "unknown" in str(col.server_default.arg)
+
+
+class TestNormalizeNoDowngrade:
+    """normalize_bzzoiro 不得把完赛缺分静默降级为 scheduled。"""
+
+    def _raw(self, status="finished", home_score=None, away_score=None):
+        return {
+            "event_date": "2026-01-01 15:00:00",
+            "status": status,
+            "home_team": "Arsenal",
+            "away_team": "Chelsea",
+            "home_score": home_score,
+            "away_score": away_score,
+        }
+
+    def test_finished_missing_score_keeps_finished(self):
+        from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
+        m = normalize_bzzoiro(self._raw("finished", None, None), "E0")
+        assert m is not None
+        assert m.match_status == "finished", "完赛缺分不得降级为 scheduled"
+        assert m.score_status == "missing"
+        assert m.home_goals is None
+        assert m.away_goals is None
+
+    def test_finished_with_score_is_known(self):
+        from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
+        m = normalize_bzzoiro(self._raw("finished", 2, 1), "E0")
+        assert m.match_status == "finished"
+        assert m.score_status == "known"
+        assert m.home_goals == 2 and m.away_goals == 1
+
+    def test_scheduled_no_score_is_unknown(self):
+        from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
+        m = normalize_bzzoiro(self._raw("scheduled", None, None), "E0")
+        assert m.match_status == "scheduled"
+        assert m.score_status == "unknown"
+        assert m.home_goals is None

tests/test_p0_standings_cutoff.py

@@ -0,0 +1,138 @@
+"""P0-02 回归测试: 积分榜改为追加快照(append-only) + available_at cutoff。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p0_standings_cutoff.py -v
+(模型约束用 fake DB;cutoff 过滤语义用 fake session 验证参数传递。)
+"""
+import pytest
+from sqlalchemy import select
+
+from src.db.models import League, Standing, Team
+
+
+# ── fake DB(对齐现有测试约定) ────────────────────────────────────
+class _FakeResult:
+    def __init__(self, items): self._items = list(items)
+    def scalars(self):
+        class _S:
+            def __init__(self, items): self._items = items
+            def all(self): return list(self._items)
+        return _S(self._items)
+    def scalar_one_or_none(self):
+        return self._items[0] if self._items else None
+
+
+class _FakeDB:
+    captured: list = []
+
+    def __init__(self, league=None, standing_rows=None):
+        self._league = league
+        self._rows = standing_rows or []
+        _FakeDB.captured = []
+
+    def add(self, obj):
+        _FakeDB.captured.append(obj)
+
+    async def execute(self, stmt):
+        # 记录生成的 SQL(字符串化)供断言
+        _FakeDB.captured.append(str(stmt))
+        compiled = str(stmt)
+        if "league" in compiled.lower() and "standing" not in compiled.lower():
+            return _FakeResult([self._league] if self._league else [])
+        return _FakeResult(self._rows)
+
+    async def flush(self):
+        pass
+
+
+class _FakeTeam:
+    def __init__(self, tid, name):
+        self.id = tid
+        self.name = name
+        self.name_zh = None
+
+
+class _Header:
+    def __init__(self):
+        from src.llm.slices.common import MatchHeader
+        self._h = MatchHeader(
+            match_id=1, home_name="A", away_name="B", league_name="E0",
+            season="2026", match_date="2026-01-01", match_dt=None,
+            stage=None, home_team_id=10, away_team_id=20, league_id=1,
+        )
+
+    def __getattr__(self, name):
+        return getattr(self._h, name)
+
+
+class TestStandingsModel:
+    """standings 模型必须有 available_at + 新唯一约束。"""
+
+    def test_available_at_column(self):
+        cols = {c.name for c in Standing.__table__.columns}
+        assert "available_at" in cols
+
+    def test_unique_constraint_includes_available_at(self):
+        names = {c.name for c in Standing.__table__.constraints}
+        assert any("available" in n and n.startswith("uq_") for n in names), \
+            f"缺少含 available_at 的唯一约束,现有: {names}"
+
+    def test_old_unique_constraint_removed(self):
+        names = {c.name for c in Standing.__table__.constraints}
+        assert "uq_standings_league_season_team" not in names, \
+            "旧约束 uq_standings_league_season_team 应已被替换"
+
+
+class TestStandingsSliceCutoff:
+    """standings_slice 必须尊重 before(cutoff):before=None → now()。"""
+
+    def test_before_none_uses_now(self):
+        """before=None 时应将 cutoff 视为 now()(取最新可用快照)。"""
+        from src.llm.slices import standings as st_mod
+        from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+        calls = {}
+        real_execute = None
+
+        class _DB:
+            def __init__(self): self._league = League(id=1, code="E0", name="E0")
+            def add(self, obj): pass
+            async def execute(self, stmt):
+                # 捕获 WHERE available_at <= ? 的参数
+                sql = str(stmt)
+                if "available_at" in sql:
+                    # 提取编译后的 params
+                    try:
+                        params = stmt.compile().params
+                        calls["cutoff"] = params.get("available_at_1")
+                    except Exception:
+                        pass
+                if "league" in sql.lower() and "standing" not in sql.lower():
+                    return _FakeResult([self._league])
+                return _FakeResult([])
+            async def flush(self): pass
+
+        async def run():
+            db = _DB()
+            before = None
+            await st_mod.standings_slice(_Header(), before=before, db=db)
+
+        import asyncio
+        asyncio.run(run())
+        # before=None 时应注入 now() 作为 cutoff
+        assert "cutoff" in calls, "未对 available_at 施加 cutoff 过滤"
+        assert calls["cutoff"] is not None
+
+
+class TestStandingsAppendOnly:
+    """采集应 INSERT 新行(带 available_at),不覆盖旧行。"""
+
+    def test_values_include_available_at(self):
+        """采集构造的 Standing 必须含 available_at 字段。"""
+        from src.data import bzzoiro_standings as bzs
+        # 检查函数源码是否包含 available_at(编译期守卫)
+        import inspect
+        src = inspect.getsource(bzs.ingest_bzzoiro_standings)
+        assert "available_at" in src, "采集函数必须设置 available_at"
+        # 不应再出现按 (league, season, team) 的 upsert 查询
+        assert "scalar_one_or_none" not in src or "Standing.league_id == league.id" not in src.replace("available_at", ""), \
+            "不应再按 (league, season, team) 做 upsert 查询"

tests/test_p1_a_ingest_league_counts.py

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+"""P1-A 回归测试: ingest 联赛级 inserted/updated 必须读 leagues[code],而非顶层 r.get("inserted")。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p1_a_ingest_league_counts.py -v
+(纯函数测试,无 DB/网络依赖。)
+"""
+from src.api.routes.ingest import _accumulate_ingest_result
+
+
+class TestAccumulateIngestResult:
+    """P1-A: _accumulate_ingest_result 联赛级计数必须来自 r["leagues"][code]。"""
+
+    def _merged(self):
+        return {"leagues": {}, "total_inserted": 0, "total_updated": 0, "errors": []}
+
+    def test_league_counts_read_from_leagues_key(self):
+        """核心: 联赛级 inserted/updated 应来自 leagues[code],而非顶层 inserted/updated。"""
+        merged = self._merged()
+        r = {
+            # 顶层无 inserted/updated 键(只有 total_*)
+            "total_inserted": 5,
+            "total_updated": 2,
+            "errors": [],
+            "leagues": {"E0": {"inserted": 3, "updated": 1, "rows": 4, "errors": []}},
+        }
+        _accumulate_ingest_result(merged, "E0", r)
+
+        # 顶层总计
+        assert merged["total_inserted"] == 5
+        assert merged["total_updated"] == 2
+        # 联赛级计数来自 leagues["E0"],而非顶层
+        assert merged["leagues"]["E0"]["inserted"] == 3, "联赛 inserted 必须来自 leagues[code]"
+        assert merged["leagues"]["E0"]["updated"] == 1, "联赛 updated 必须来自 leagues[code]"
+
+    def test_does_not_read_top_level_inserted(self):
+        """防御: 若 r 误含顶层 inserted 键,不得影响联赛级计数。"""
+        merged = self._merged()
+        r = {
+            "total_inserted": 5,
+            "total_updated": 2,
+            "inserted": 999,  # 错误的顶层键(旧代码可能读这个)
+            "updated": 999,
+            "errors": [],
+            "leagues": {"E0": {"inserted": 3, "updated": 1}},
+        }
+        _accumulate_ingest_result(merged, "E0", r)
+        # 必须忽略顶层 inserted/updated,使用 leagues["E0"]
+        assert merged["leagues"]["E0"]["inserted"] == 3
+        assert merged["leagues"]["E0"]["updated"] == 1
+
+    def test_missing_league_key_defaults_to_zero(self):
+        """r["leagues"] 无该 code 时,默认 0 不抛错。"""
+        merged = self._merged()
+        r = {"total_inserted": 1, "total_updated": 0, "errors": [], "leagues": {}}
+        _accumulate_ingest_result(merged, "E0", r)
+        assert merged["leagues"]["E0"]["inserted"] == 0
+        assert merged["total_inserted"] == 1
+
+    def test_multiple_calls_accumulate(self):
+        """多次调用应累加到同一联赛。"""
+        merged = self._merged()
+        r1 = {"total_inserted": 3, "total_updated": 1, "errors": [], "leagues": {"E0": {"inserted": 3, "updated": 1}}}
+        r2 = {"total_inserted": 2, "total_updated": 0, "errors": [], "leagues": {"E0": {"inserted": 2, "updated": 0}}}
+        _accumulate_ingest_result(merged, "E0", r1)
+        _accumulate_ingest_result(merged, "E0", r2)
+        assert merged["leagues"]["E0"]["inserted"] == 5
+        assert merged["leagues"]["E0"]["updated"] == 1
+        assert merged["total_inserted"] == 5

tests/test_p1_b_invalid_cursor.py

@@ -0,0 +1,75 @@
+"""P1-B 回归测试: 非法 cursor → 400 + code=INVALID_CURSOR。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p1_b_invalid_cursor.py -v
+(_parse_cursor 为纯函数,无 DB/网络依赖;HTTP 层仅测非法格式。)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+import pytest
+from fastapi import HTTPException
+from fastapi.testclient import TestClient
+
+from src.api.app import app
+from src.api.deps import require_admin
+from src.api.routes.matches import _parse_cursor
+
+
+class TestParseCursorPure:
+    """P1-B 纯函数:_parse_cursor 解析与非法校验。"""
+
+    def test_valid_cursor(self):
+        d, mid = _parse_cursor("2026-01-01T15:00:00+00:00|42")
+        assert d == datetime(2026, 1, 1, 15, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc)
+        assert mid == 42
+
+    def test_missing_pipe_raises_400(self):
+        with pytest.raises(HTTPException) as ei:
+            _parse_cursor("no-pipe-here")
+        assert ei.value.status_code == 400
+        assert ei.value.detail["code"] == "INVALID_CURSOR"
+
+    def test_empty_date_raises_400(self):
+        with pytest.raises(HTTPException) as ei:
+            _parse_cursor("|5")
+        assert ei.value.status_code == 400
+        assert ei.value.detail["code"] == "INVALID_CURSOR"
+
+    def test_non_numeric_id_raises_400(self):
+        with pytest.raises(HTTPException) as ei:
+            _parse_cursor("2026-01-01T00:00:00+00:00|abc")
+        assert ei.value.status_code == 400
+        assert ei.value.detail["code"] == "INVALID_CURSOR"
+
+    def test_invalid_date_raises_400(self):
+        with pytest.raises(HTTPException) as ei:
+            _parse_cursor("not-a-date|1")
+        assert ei.value.status_code == 400
+        assert ei.value.detail["code"] == "INVALID_CURSOR"
+
+    def test_extra_pipe_raises_400(self):
+        """含额外 | 时 id 部分为 "42|extra",int() 失败 → 400。"""
+        with pytest.raises(HTTPException) as ei:
+            _parse_cursor("2026-01-01T15:00:00+00:00|42|extra")
+        assert ei.value.status_code == 400
+        assert ei.value.detail["code"] == "INVALID_CURSOR"
+
+
+class TestInvalidCursorHTTP:
+    """P1-B HTTP 层:非法 cursor → 400 + code=INVALID_CURSOR。"""
+
+    @pytest.fixture
+    def client(self):
+        app.dependency_overrides[require_admin] = lambda: None
+        return TestClient(app)
+
+    def test_malformed_cursor_400(self, client):
+        resp = client.get("/api/v1/matches?cursor=garbage")
+        assert resp.status_code == 400
+        assert resp.json()["detail"]["code"] == "INVALID_CURSOR"
+
+    def test_missing_id_400(self, client):
+        resp = client.get("/api/v1/matches?cursor=2026-01-01T00:00:00|")
+        assert resp.status_code == 400
+        assert resp.json()["detail"]["code"] == "INVALID_CURSOR"

tests/test_p1_c_public_predictions.py

@@ -0,0 +1,135 @@
+"""P1-C 回归测试: 公开预测仅 live+success,且不含 reasoning/agent_outputs。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p1_c_public_predictions.py -v
+(使用 fake DB,无需真实 PG。)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import datetime, timezone
+from unittest.mock import MagicMock
+
+import pytest
+from fastapi.testclient import TestClient
+
+from src.api.app import app
+from src.api.deps import require_admin
+from src.db.models import League, Match, MatchStats, Prediction, Team
+
+
+class _FakeResult:
+    def __init__(self, items): self._items = list(items)
+    def scalars(self):
+        class _S:
+            def __init__(self, items): self._items = items
+            def all(self): return list(self._items)
+        return _S(self._items)
+    def scalar_one_or_none(self):
+        return self._items[0] if self._items else None
+    def scalar(self):
+        return self._items[0] if self._items else None
+
+
+class _FakeDB:
+    """假 DB:捕获发往 Prediction 的查询语句,供测试断言 SQL 过滤条件。"""
+
+    captured_pred_stmts: list = []
+
+    def __init__(self, match=None, predictions=()):
+        self._match = match
+        self._predictions = list(predictions)
+
+    async def execute(self, stmt):
+        # 根据 column_descriptions 判断查询实体
+        try:
+            entity = stmt.column_descriptions[0]["entity"]
+        except (IndexError, KeyError):
+            entity = None
+        if entity is Prediction:
+            _FakeDB.captured_pred_stmts.append(stmt)
+            return _FakeResult(self._predictions)
+        return _FakeResult([self._match] if self._match else [])
+
+    async def get(self, cls, mid):
+        return self._match
+
+
+def _make_match(mid=1):
+    home = Team(id=10, name="Arsenal", name_zh="阿森纳")
+    away = Team(id=20, name="Chelsea", name_zh="切尔西")
+    lg = League(id=1, code="E0", name="Premier", country="EN")
+    m = Match(
+        id=mid, league_id=1, home_team_id=10, away_team_id=20,
+        match_date=datetime(2026, 1, 1, 15, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc),
+        match_status="finished",
+    )
+    m.league = lg
+    m.home_team = home
+    m.away_team = away
+    m.stats = MatchStats(match_id=mid, home_xg=1.5, away_xg=1.0)
+    return m
+
+
+def _make_pred(pid, match_id, run_type="live", status="success", **overrides):
+    p = Prediction(
+        id=pid, match_id=match_id, provider="openai", model="gpt-4o",
+        prompt_version="v1", mode=run_type, run_type=run_type, status=status,
+        pred_home_goals=2.0, pred_away_goals=1.0, pred_1x2="1",
+        reasoning="内部推理细节", agent_outputs=[{"agent": "form"}],
+        subjective_confidence=0.7,
+        created_at=datetime(2026, 1, 2, 12, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc),
+    )
+    for k, v in overrides.items():
+        setattr(p, k, v)
+    return p
+
+
+from src.db.base import get_db_read
+
+
+@pytest.fixture
+def client():
+    app.dependency_overrides[require_admin] = lambda: None
+    return TestClient(app)
+
+
+class TestPublicPredictionsFilter:
+    """P1-C: GET /matches/{id} 公开预测仅 run_type=live 且 status=success。"""
+
+    def test_query_filters_by_run_type_and_status(self, client):
+        """P1-C: 查询必须包含 run_type='live' AND status='success' 过滤。"""
+        _FakeDB.captured_pred_stmts = []
+        m = _make_match(1)
+        fake = _FakeDB(match=m, predictions=[_make_pred(1, 1)])
+
+        app.dependency_overrides[get_db_read] = lambda: fake
+        try:
+            resp = client.get("/api/v1/matches/1")
+            assert resp.status_code == 200, resp.text
+            # 验证发往 Prediction 的 SQL 含 run_type 与 status 过滤
+            assert _FakeDB.captured_pred_stmts, "未发出 Prediction 查询"
+            sql = str(_FakeDB.captured_pred_stmts[0]).lower()
+            assert "run_type" in sql, f"SQL 缺少 run_type 过滤: {sql}"
+            assert "status" in sql, f"SQL 缺少 status 过滤: {sql}"
+        finally:
+            app.dependency_overrides.pop(get_db_read, None)
+
+    def test_no_reasoning_or_agent_outputs(self, client):
+        """P1-C: 公开预测不得含 reasoning/agent_outputs。"""
+        m = _make_match(1)
+        preds = [_make_pred(1, 1, run_type="live", status="success")]
+        fake = _FakeDB(match=m, predictions=preds)
+
+        app.dependency_overrides[get_db_read] = lambda: fake
+        try:
+            resp = client.get("/api/v1/matches/1")
+            assert resp.status_code == 200, resp.text
+            body = resp.json()
+            assert len(body["recent_predictions"]) == 1
+            p = body["recent_predictions"][0]
+            assert "reasoning" not in p, "公开预测不得含 reasoning"
+            assert "agent_outputs" not in p, "公开预测不得含 agent_outputs"
+            # 但核心字段保留
+            assert p["pred_home_goals"] == 2.0
+            assert p["pred_1x2"] == "1"
+        finally:
+            app.dependency_overrides.pop(get_db_read, None)

tests/test_p1_d_concurrency.py

@@ -0,0 +1,71 @@
+"""P1-D 回归测试: 全局 LLM 并发限制 + provider 字段已删除。
+
+运行: pytest tests/test_p1_d_concurrency.py -v
+"""
+import asyncio
+from unittest.mock import patch
+
+import pytest
+
+from src.api.routes import predict as predict_mod
+
+
+class TestGlobalLLMConcurrency:
+    """P1-D: 全局 LLM 并发限制(默认 4)。"""
+
+    def test_semaphore_exists_with_limit(self):
+        """路由模块必须存在 _GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE 且 value <= 4。"""
+        assert hasattr(predict_mod, "_GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE")
+        sem = predict_mod._GLOBAL_LLM_SEMAPHORE
+        assert isinstance(sem, asyncio.Semaphore)
+        assert sem._value == 4, f"期望并发限制 4,实际 {sem._value}"
+
+    def test_predict_with_concurrency_limits_parallel(self):
+        """P1-D: 并发调用 _predict_with_concurrency 不得超过信号量限制。"""
+        max_concurrent = 0
+        current = 0
+        lock = asyncio.Lock()
+
+        async def fake_predict(match_id, **kwargs):
+            nonlocal current, max_concurrent
+            async with lock:
+                current += 1
+                max_concurrent = max(max_concurrent, current)
+            await asyncio.sleep(0.05)  # 模拟 LLM 调用
+            async with lock:
+                current -= 1
+            return type("R", (), {"prediction_id": 1, "provider": "p", "model": "m",
+                                  "prompt_version": "v1", "pred_home_goals": 1.0,
+                                  "pred_away_goals": 0.0, "pred_1x2": "1",
+                                  "subjective_confidence": 0.5, "reasoning": "",
+                                  "status": "success", "context": "",
+                                  "latency_ms": 0, "raw": {}})()
+
+        req = type("Req", (), {"match_id": 1, "model": None, "prompt_version": None, "mode": "single"})()
+
+        async def run():
+            with patch.object(predict_mod, "predict_match", fake_predict):
+                # 启动 10 个并发请求
+                tasks = [predict_mod._predict_with_concurrency(req) for _ in range(10)]
+                await asyncio.gather(*tasks)
+
+        asyncio.run(run())
+        # 最大并发不得超过信号量限制(4)
+        assert max_concurrent <= 4, f"并发 {max_concurrent} 超过限制 4"
+
+
+class TestProviderFieldRemoved:
+    """P1-D: PredictRequest 的 provider 字段必须已删除(未接线)。"""
+
+    def test_predict_request_no_provider(self):
+        from src.api.schemas import PredictRequest
+
+        fields = set(PredictRequest.model_fields.keys())
+        assert "provider" not in fields, f"PredictRequest 应已删除 provider 字段,现有: {fields}"
+
+    def test_predict_request_still_has_core_fields(self):
+        from src.api.schemas import PredictRequest
+
+        fields = set(PredictRequest.model_fields.keys())
+        for required in ("match_id", "model", "prompt_version", "mode"):
+            assert required in fields, f"缺少核心字段 {required}"

tests/test_prediction_unique_constraint.py

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@
 验证:
   1. 唯一约束包含 mode + run_type
   2. 同一场比赛 live 与 backtest 预测可共存,互不覆盖
-  3. _upsert_prediction 正确区分 run_type
+  3. _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint 正确区分 run_type
 """
 from __future__ import annotations
 
@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ from pathlib import Path
 
 from pydantic import BaseModel
 import pytest
+from sqlalchemy import Index
 
 from src.db.models import Prediction, UniqueConstraint, CheckConstraint
 
@@ -22,20 +23,32 @@ MIGRATION_PATH = REPO_ROOT / "alembic" / "versions" / "0013_predictions_unique_c
 
 
 class TestUniqueConstraint:
-    """验证唯一约束包含 mode + run_type。"""
+    """P0-03: 验证幂等指纹唯一索引(替代旧 (match, provider, model, mode, run_type) 唯一约束)。"""
 
-    def test_constraint_columns(self):
-        """唯一约束应包含 match_id, provider, model, mode, run_type。"""
-        uc = [
-            c for c in Prediction.__table__.constraints
-            if isinstance(c, UniqueConstraint) and "match" in c.name
+    def test_input_hash_partial_unique_index(self):
+        """P0-03: input_hash 非空时必须唯一(同指纹 → 返回已有行,不 UPDATE/INSERT)。"""
+        idx = [
+            i for i in Prediction.__table__.indexes
+            if i.unique and "input_hash" in i.name
         ]
-        assert len(uc) == 1
-        cols = [c.name for c in uc[0].columns]
-        assert cols == ["match_id", "provider", "model", "mode", "run_type"]
+        assert len(idx) == 1, f"缺少 input_hash partial unique 索引,现有 indexes: {[i.name for i in Prediction.__table__.indexes]}"
+        # partial unique: postgresql_where 必须限制 input_hash IS NOT NULL
+        assert idx[0].dialect_kwargs.get("postgresql_where") is not None
+
+    def test_old_unique_constraint_removed(self):
+        """P0-03: 旧 (match, provider, model, mode, run_type) 唯一约束必须已移除。"""
+        from sqlalchemy import UniqueConstraint
+
+        old = [
+            c for c in Prediction.__table__.constraints
+            if isinstance(c, UniqueConstraint) and c.name == "uq_predictions_match_provider_model_mode_run_type"
+        ]
+        assert len(old) == 0, f"旧约束必须已移除,但仍存在: {[c.name for c in old]}"
 
     def test_run_type_check_constraint(self):
         """应有 run_type 的 check constraint。"""
+        from sqlalchemy import CheckConstraint
+
         cc = [
             c for c in Prediction.__table__.constraints
             if isinstance(c, CheckConstraint) and "run_type" in c.name
@@ -52,13 +65,16 @@ class TestUniqueConstraint:
 
 
 class TestUpsertPredictionSignature:
-    """验证 _upsert_prediction 函数签名包含 run_type。"""
+    """验证 _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint 签名(P0-03 指纹模式)。"""
 
-    def test_signature_has_run_type(self):
-        from src.llm.predict import _upsert_prediction
+    def test_signature_uses_values_dict(self):
+        """P0-03: 新接口通过 values dict 接收全部字段(含 run_type/match_id/...)。"""
+        from src.llm.predict import _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint
 
-        sig = inspect.signature(_upsert_prediction)
-        assert "run_type" in sig.parameters
+        sig = inspect.signature(_insert_or_find_by_fingerprint)
+        params = sig.parameters
+        assert "session" in params
+        assert "values" in params  # 所有业务字段走 values dict
 
     def test_signature_has_backtest_in_predict_match(self):
         from src.llm.predict import predict_match

tests/test_regressions.py

@@ -32,17 +32,24 @@ class TestEagerLoadCoverage:
 
         models.py 已声明 lazy="selectin" 兜底,但这里同时检查显式
         selectinload —— 显式声明是查询意图的固化,也被 P0 修复所依赖。
+        (context_builder 已按 slice 拆分到 src/llm/slices/,getter 随实现迁移。)
         """
-        src = _read("llm/context_builder.py")
+        for rel in ("llm/slices/form.py", "llm/slices/h2h.py", "llm/slices/home_away.py"):
+            src = _read(rel)
             for fn in ("_get_form", "_get_h2h", "_get_home_away"):
-            # 截取函数体
+                # 截取函数体(仅当前文件定义了该函数才检查)
                 m = re.search(rf"async def {fn}\(.*?(?=\nasync def |\n# =|\Z)", src, re.S)
-            assert m, f"{fn} 未找到"
+                if not m:
+                    continue
                 body = m.group(0)
                 assert "selectinload" in body, (
                     f"{fn} 查询 Match 但未 eager-load 关系 —— "
                     "this would raise MissingGreenlet in async SQLAlchemy (P0-2)"
                 )
+        # 守卫完整性: 三个 getter 必须都能在 slices 包中找到
+        all_src = "\n".join(_read(r) for r in ("llm/slices/form.py", "llm/slices/h2h.py", "llm/slices/home_away.py"))
+        for fn in ("_get_form", "_get_h2h", "_get_home_away"):
+            assert f"async def {fn}(" in all_src, f"{fn} 未在 slices 包中找到(拆分后迁移缺失?)"
 
     def test_backtest_candidates_eager_load(self):
         """回测取历史比赛必须 eager-load(否则 session 关闭后访问关系必炸)。"""
@@ -165,7 +172,9 @@ class TestBzzoiroLineage:
             if re.search(r"source_event_id\s*(?:is|==|!=)", stripped):
                 continue
             if re.search(r"source_event_id\s*\.\s*\w+\s*\(", stripped):
-                continue  # 方法调用,不是赋值
+                continue  # 方法调用(obj.source_event_id(...)),不是赋值
+            if re.search(r"\w*source_event_id\s*\(", stripped):
+                continue  # 方法调用(如 find_by_source_event_id(eid)),不是赋值
             if self._ASSIGN_DIRECT.search(stripped):
                 continue  # 直接取配对 raw
             m_var = self._ASSIGN_VIA_VAR.search(stripped)
@@ -175,7 +184,7 @@ class TestBzzoiroLineage:
         return bad
 
     def test_normalized_matches_carries_raw(self):
-        src = _read("data/bzzoiro.py")
+        src = _read("data/bzzoiro_events.py")
         # 规范化结果必须与原始 event 成对保存
         assert "normalized_matches.append((nm, raw))" in src, (
             "normalized_matches 未携带 (nm, raw) 元组 —— raw 变量泄漏会回归 (P0-3)"
@@ -193,7 +202,7 @@ class TestBzzoiroLineage:
         它不是 `raw.get(` 同一行,但同样正确。非法写法(回归)是直接
         `existing_match.source_event_id = orphan_var`。
         """
-        src = _read("data/bzzoiro.py")
+        src = _read("data/bzzoiro_events.py")
         seg = self._consume_loop_body(src)
         bad = self._bad_assignments(seg)
         assert len(bad) == 0, (
@@ -206,7 +215,7 @@ class TestBzzoiroLineage:
         下游 `_backfill_stats` 里合法地在 ORM 对象上访问 `m.source_event_id`
         (与配对 raw 无关)。若 seg 越界,test_no_orphan_raw_use 会误报。
         """
-        src = _read("data/bzzoiro.py")
+        src = _read("data/bzzoiro_events.py")
         seg = self._consume_loop_body(src)
         assert "m.source_event_id" not in seg, (
             "循环体截取越界,扫到了下游 stats 管线 —— 会误报 P0-3"

tests/test_review_required_fixes.py

@@ -17,6 +17,7 @@ import re
 
 import pytest
 
+from src.db.models import Team, TeamAlias
 from src.data.key_ring import _mask
 from src.llm import backtest as bt_mod
 from src.llm.agents import orchestrator as orch_mod
@@ -105,6 +106,15 @@ class _FakeDb:
         self.added: list = []
         self.flush_count = 0
         self._next_id = 1000
+        self._teams_by_id: dict[int, Team] = {}
+        self._aliases: dict[str, TeamAlias] = {}
+
+    async def get(self, cls, key):
+        if cls is Team:
+            return self._teams_by_id.get(key)
+        if cls is TeamAlias:
+            return self._aliases.get(key)
+        return None
 
     async def execute(self, _stmt):
         if self._results:
@@ -120,12 +130,16 @@ class _FakeDb:
             if getattr(obj, "id", None) is None:
                 self._next_id += 1
                 obj.id = self._next_id
+            if isinstance(obj, Team) and getattr(obj, "id", None) is not None:
+                self._teams_by_id[obj.id] = obj
+            if isinstance(obj, TeamAlias):
+                self._aliases[obj.alias_normalized] = obj
 
 
 async def test_r2_standings_actually_upserts(monkeypatch):
     """行为测试: 喂一份积分榜 payload,断言真的构造了 Standing 且计数 > 0。"""
     import src.data.bzzoiro as bz
-    from src.db.models import League, Standing, Team
+    from src.db.models import DataLineage, League, RawEvent, Standing, Team
 
     payload = {
         "season": {"start_date": "2025-08-01", "end_date": "2026-05-31"},
@@ -166,7 +180,10 @@ async def test_r2_standings_actually_upserts(monkeypatch):
 
     standings = [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, Standing)]
     assert len(standings) == 2, "应真的构造 Standing 行"
-    assert all(isinstance(o, (Standing, Team)) for o in db.added)
+    # standings 采集接线 Bronze 后(RawEvent + DataLineage),add 的对象类型白名单随之放宽
+    assert all(
+        isinstance(o, (Standing, Team, RawEvent, DataLineage)) for o in db.added
+    )
 
     first = standings[0]
     assert first.league_id == 42
@@ -177,8 +194,8 @@ async def test_r2_standings_actually_upserts(monkeypatch):
     assert first.zone == "Champions League"     # 优先取 label
 
 
-async def test_r2_standings_upsert_updates_existing(monkeypatch):
-    """行为测试: 已存在同 (league, season, team) 时应就地更新而非新增。"""
+async def test_r2_standings_append_new_row(monkeypatch):
+    """P0-02 行为测试: 每次采集 INSERT 新行(带 available_at),不更新旧行。"""
     import src.data.bzzoiro as bz
     from src.db.models import League, Standing
 
@@ -200,16 +217,20 @@ async def test_r2_standings_upsert_updates_existing(monkeypatch):
     existing = Standing(league_id=42, season="2025-2026", team_id=7, position=9)
     existing.points = 1
 
-    # 查询顺序: League → Team 预载(命中) → Standing 查询(命中已有行)
-    db = _FakeDb(results=[_FakeResult([league]), _FakeResult([team]), _FakeResult([existing])])
+    # 查询顺序: League(命中) → Team 预载(命中) → (P0-02 不再查询 Standing)
+    db = _FakeDb(results=[_FakeResult([league]), _FakeResult([team])])
 
     result = await bz.ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, leagues=["EPL"])
 
     assert result["total_upserted"] == 1
-    assert existing.points == 30, "已有行应被就地更新"
+    # P0-02: 追加快照——新增 Standing 行,旧行不被修改
+    new_rows = [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, Standing)]
+    assert len(new_rows) == 1, "P0-02 应新增一条 Standing 行"
+    assert new_rows[0].points == 30, "新行应承载新采集数据"
+    assert new_rows[0].available_at is not None, "新行必须含 available_at"
+    # 旧行未被修改(仍保持原值)
+    assert existing.points == 1, "P0-02 旧行不应被覆盖"
     assert result["leagues"]["EPL"]["teams_created"] == 0
-    # 不应新增 Standing(只有 league/team 层面的 add)
-    assert not [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, Standing)]
 
 
 def test_r2_source_contains_real_upsert_loop():
@@ -220,7 +241,9 @@ def test_r2_source_contains_real_upsert_loop():
     assert "total_upserted" in src
     assert 'result["total_upserted"] +=' in src, "total_upserted 必须真的被累加"
     assert "Standing(" in src, "必须真的构造 Standing"
-    assert "select(Standing)" in src, "必须查询已有快照以决定 insert/update"
+    # P0-02: 追加快照——每次 INSERT 新行(带 available_at),不查询旧行做 upsert
+    assert "available_at" in src, "P0-02 采集必须设置 available_at"
+    assert "scalar_one_or_none" not in src, "P0-02 不应再按 (league, season, team) 做 upsert 查询"
 
 
 # ============================================================

tests/test_standings_bronze.py

@@ -0,0 +1,304 @@
+"""standings 成功路径 Bronze 层回归测试(RawEvent + DataLineage)。
+
+背景: events/stats 管线成功后均已补写 Bronze 层,唯独 standings 采集
+成功后既不留原始载荷,也不留血缘 —— 三条管线的溯源链条在积分榜一环
+缺失。本测试守护(与 test_events_bronze.py 对称):
+  1. 联赛成功 upsert → RawEvent(幂等键=standings:{league}:{season})
+     + Lineage(target_table="standings", transform_name="standings_ingest")
+  2. 更新已有快照(非插入)同样写 Bronze —— 积分榜是快照,刷新即采集
+  3. RawEvent 幂等: 同 source_record_id 已存在则跳过,血缘照写
+  4. 基础设施写入失败 → 只 warning,不拖垮采集主流程
+  5. 抓取失败路径继续走 _safe_write_ingest_failure,且不写 Bronze
+
+范式: 假 db(按查询实体分发预置数据 + 记录 add,flush 分配自增 id)
++ monkeypatch 抓取函数,不依赖真实数据库。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import pytest
+
+import src.data.bzzoiro as bz
+from src.db.models import DataLineage, IngestFailure, League, RawEvent, Standing, Team, TeamAlias
+
+
+def _payload():
+    """构造一份最小合法的 bzzoiro /leagues/{id}/standings/ 原始载荷。"""
+    return {
+        "season": {"start_date": "2025-08-01", "end_date": "2026-05-31"},
+        "standings": [
+            {
+                "position": 1, "team_name": "Arsenal FC",
+                "played": 10, "won": 8, "drawn": 1, "lost": 1,
+                "gf": 22, "ga": 8, "gd": 14, "pts": 25,
+                "zone": {"key": "champions_league", "label": "Champions League"},
+            },
+            {
+                "position": 2, "team_name": "Chelsea FC",
+                "played": 10, "won": 6, "drawn": 2, "lost": 2,
+                "gf": 18, "ga": 12, "gd": 6, "pts": 20,
+            },
+        ],
+    }
+
+
+def _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, payload):
+    async def _fetch(league_code, season=None):
+        return payload
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(bz, "fetch_bzzoiro_standings", _fetch)
+
+
+class _FakeResult:
+    """支持 .scalars().all() / .scalar_one_or_none() 的最小假结果集。"""
+
+    def __init__(self, items):
+        self._items = list(items)
+
+    def scalars(self):
+        return self
+
+    def __iter__(self):
+        return iter(self._items)
+
+    def all(self):
+        return self._items
+
+    def scalar_one_or_none(self):
+        return self._items[0] if self._items else None
+
+
+class _FakeDB:
+    """按查询实体分发预置数据;记录 add();flush 为无 id 对象分配自增主键。"""
+
+    def __init__(self, leagues=(), teams=(), standings=(), raw_events=()):
+        self.added = []
+        self._by_entity = {
+            League: list(leagues),
+            Team: list(teams),
+            Standing: list(standings),
+            RawEvent: list(raw_events),
+        }
+        # session.get 查找表(Team/TeamAlias)
+        self._teams_by_id: dict[int, Team] = {t.id: t for t in teams if getattr(t, "id", None)}
+        self._aliases: dict[str, TeamAlias] = {}
+        self._next_id = max((t.id for t in teams if getattr(t, "id", None)), default=0)
+
+    def add(self, obj):
+        self.added.append(obj)
+
+    async def get(self, cls, key):
+        if cls is Team:
+            return self._teams_by_id.get(key)
+        if cls is TeamAlias:
+            return self._aliases.get(key)
+        return None
+
+    async def execute(self, stmt):
+        entities = set()
+        for d in (stmt.column_descriptions or []):
+            entities.add(d.get("entity") or d.get("type"))
+        for entity, items in self._by_entity.items():
+            if entity in entities:
+                return _FakeResult(self._filter(entity, items, stmt))
+        return _FakeResult([])
+
+    @staticmethod
+    def _filter(entity, items, stmt):
+        """RawEvent 查询按 source_record_id 过滤 —— 幂等测试需区分不同键。"""
+        if entity is RawEvent:
+            try:
+                params = stmt.compile().params
+            except Exception:
+                return items
+            rid = next((v for k, v in params.items() if "source_record_id" in k), None)
+            if rid is not None:
+                return [i for i in items if i.source_record_id == rid]
+        return items
+
+    async def flush(self):
+        for obj in self.added:
+            if getattr(obj, "id", None) is None:
+                self._next_id += 1
+                obj.id = self._next_id
+                # 同步 session.get 可查到新建 Team
+                if isinstance(obj, Team) and obj.id is not None:
+                    self._teams_by_id[obj.id] = obj
+
+
+def _preset_league():
+    lg = League(code="EPL", name="Premier League", country="England")
+    lg.id = 42
+    return lg
+
+
+def _raw_events(db):
+    return [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, RawEvent)]
+
+
+def _lineages(db):
+    return [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, DataLineage)]
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 1. 成功 upsert → RawEvent + DataLineage
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class TestStandingsBronzeOnUpsert:
+    async def test_upsert_writes_raw_event_and_lineage(self, monkeypatch):
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, _payload())
+        db = _FakeDB(leagues=[_preset_league()])
+
+        result = await bz.ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, leagues=["EPL"])
+
+        assert result["errors"] == []
+        assert result["total_upserted"] == 2
+
+        raws = _raw_events(db)
+        assert len(raws) == 1
+        raw = raws[0]
+        assert raw.source_system == "bzzoiro"
+        # 幂等键: 联赛 + 实际入库的赛季标签(由载荷日期推导,与 Standing.season 同口径)
+        assert raw.source_record_id == "standings:EPL:2025-2026"
+        assert raw.ingest_batch_id.startswith("bzzoiro-standings-EPL-")
+        # 整份原始载荷完整保留
+        assert raw.raw_payload["standings"][0]["team_name"] == "Arsenal FC"
+
+        lineages = _lineages(db)
+        assert len(lineages) == 1
+        lin = lineages[0]
+        assert lin.source_system == "bzzoiro"
+        assert lin.source_record_id == "standings:EPL:2025-2026"
+        assert lin.target_table == "standings"
+        assert lin.target_id == 42  # 联赛 id
+        assert lin.transform_name == "standings_ingest"
+        assert lin.transform_detail == {
+            "league": "EPL", "season": "2025-2026", "rows_upserted": 2,
+        }
+        # RawEvent 与 Lineage 同批次,便于按批追溯
+        assert lin.batch_id == raw.ingest_batch_id
+
+    async def test_updated_snapshot_also_writes_bronze(self, monkeypatch):
+        """已有快照就地更新(非插入)同样是成功采集,必须留 Bronze 记录。"""
+        payload = _payload()
+        payload["standings"] = payload["standings"][:1]  # 单队,便于命中同一行
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, payload)
+
+        team = Team(name="Arsenal FC", name_zh="阿森纳")
+        team.id = 7
+        existing = Standing(league_id=42, season="2025-2026", team_id=7, position=9)
+        existing.points = 1
+        db = _FakeDB(leagues=[_preset_league()], teams=[team], standings=[existing])
+
+        result = await bz.ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, leagues=["EPL"])
+
+        assert result["total_upserted"] == 1
+        assert result["leagues"]["EPL"]["teams_created"] == 0
+        # 快照刷新也要留痕: RawEvent(幂等) + 血缘
+        assert len(_raw_events(db)) == 1
+        lineages = _lineages(db)
+        assert len(lineages) == 1
+        assert lineages[0].transform_name == "standings_ingest"
+        assert lineages[0].transform_detail["rows_upserted"] == 1
+
+    async def test_empty_upsert_writes_no_bronze(self, monkeypatch):
+        """载荷有行但全部队名为空 → 没有任何 upsert,不应产生 RawEvent/Lineage。"""
+        payload = {"standings": [{"position": 1, "team_name": ""}]}
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, payload)
+        db = _FakeDB(leagues=[_preset_league()])
+
+        result = await bz.ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, leagues=["EPL"])
+
+        assert result["total_upserted"] == 0
+        assert _raw_events(db) == []
+        assert _lineages(db) == []
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 2. RawEvent 幂等: 同 source_record_id 跳过
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class TestStandingsRawEventIdempotent:
+    async def test_existing_raw_event_is_skipped(self, monkeypatch):
+        existing = RawEvent(
+            source_system="bzzoiro",
+            source_record_id="standings:EPL:2025-2026",
+            raw_payload={"old": True},
+        )
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, _payload())
+        db = _FakeDB(leagues=[_preset_league()], raw_events=[existing])
+
+        await bz.ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, leagues=["EPL"])
+
+        new_raws = [r for r in _raw_events(db) if r is not existing]
+        assert new_raws == []
+        assert len(_lineages(db)) == 1  # 血缘仍然记录本次采集
+
+    async def test_different_season_writes_new_raw_event(self, monkeypatch):
+        """幂等键含赛季: 同联赛不同赛季各留一条 RawEvent。"""
+        payload = _payload()
+        payload["season"] = {"start_date": "2024-08-01", "end_date": "2025-05-31"}
+        existing = RawEvent(
+            source_system="bzzoiro",
+            source_record_id="standings:EPL:2025-2026",
+            raw_payload={"old": True},
+        )
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, payload)
+        db = _FakeDB(leagues=[_preset_league()], raw_events=[existing])
+
+        await bz.ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, leagues=["EPL"])
+
+        new_raws = [r for r in _raw_events(db) if r is not existing]
+        assert len(new_raws) == 1
+        assert new_raws[0].source_record_id == "standings:EPL:2024-2025"
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 3. 基础设施写入失败: 尽力而为,不拖垮主流程
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class TestStandingsBronzeIsBestEffort:
+    async def test_bronze_write_failure_does_not_break_ingest(self, monkeypatch):
+        import src.data.bzzoiro_standings as bz_standings
+
+        async def _boom(*args, **kwargs):
+            raise RuntimeError("infra down")
+
+        # Bronze 写入助手直接 import 到 bzzoiro_standings 命名空间,需 patch 该处
+        monkeypatch.setattr(bz_standings, "_write_raw_event", _boom)
+        monkeypatch.setattr(bz_standings, "_write_lineage", _boom)
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, _payload())
+        db = _FakeDB(leagues=[_preset_league()])
+
+        # 不应抛异常:Bronze 写不进去只记 warning
+        result = await bz.ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, leagues=["EPL"])
+
+        assert result["total_upserted"] == 2
+        assert [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, Standing)]
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 4. 抓取失败: 继续写死信,且不写 Bronze
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class TestStandingsFailurePathKeepsDeadLetter:
+    async def test_fetch_failure_writes_deadletter_and_no_bronze(self, monkeypatch):
+        async def _boom(league_code, season=None):
+            raise RuntimeError("upstream 500")
+
+        monkeypatch.setattr(bz, "fetch_bzzoiro_standings", _boom)
+        db = _FakeDB()
+
+        result = await bz.ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, leagues=["SP1"], season="2025-2026")
+
+        assert result["errors"]
+        failures = [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, IngestFailure)]
+        assert len(failures) == 1
+        assert failures[0].entity_type == "standings"
+        assert failures[0].error_type == "fetch_error"
+        # 失败路径绝不写 Bronze(没有任何成功 upsert)
+        assert _raw_events(db) == []
+        assert _lineages(db) == []