Merge pull request '工程债清理(Bronze 血缘/预测类型统一/Matches 拆分/Repository 治理/导航单源等)'

Reviewed-on: #10
2026-09-21 19:57:48 +08:00
parent f6c0145c32 d9aeff2114
commit 3056a95ef4
21 changed files with 2173 additions and 1393 deletions
@@ -9,6 +9,7 @@ import { useState, useEffect, useCallback } from 'react'
 import { NavLink, Outlet, useLocation } from 'react-router-dom'
 import { fetchAuthState, logout, UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT } from './api'
 import { fetchHealth } from './dal'
+import { COMMAND_PALETTE_PAGES, ROUTE_LABELS, NAV_SECTIONS } from './nav'
 import Login from './Login'
 import { useCommandPalette, CommandPalette } from './useCommandPalette'

@@ -88,58 +89,9 @@ function Icon({ name }: { name: string }) {
  }
 }

-const NAV_PAGES: Array<{ to: string; label: string; group: string }> = [
-  { to: '/admin', label: '仪表盘', group: '概览' },
-  { to: '/admin/collection', label: '数据采集', group: '数据流水线' },
-      { to: '/admin/data-completeness', label: '数据完整性', group: '数据流水线' },
-      { to: '/admin/data-pipeline', label: '数据管线', group: '数据流水线' },
-      { to: '/admin/predictions', label: '预测历史', group: '数据流水线' },
-  { to: '/admin/backtest', label: '回测', group: '数据流水线' },
-  { to: '/admin/monitoring', label: '监控', group: '评估与监控' },
-  { to: '/admin/eval', label: '评估', group: '评估与监控' },
-  { to: '/admin/settings', label: '设置', group: '系统' },
-  { to: '/admin/logs', label: '日志', group: '系统' },
-]
-
-// 路由 → 面包屑标签
-const ROUTE_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
-  '/admin': '仪表盘',
-  '/admin/collection': '数据采集',
-  '/admin/data-completeness': '数据完整性',
-  '/admin/data-pipeline': '数据管线',
-  '/admin/predictions': '预测历史',
-  '/admin/backtest': '回测',
-  '/admin/monitoring': '监控',
-  '/admin/settings': '设置',
-  '/admin/logs': '日志',
-  '/admin/eval': '评估',
-}
-
-const NAV_SECTIONS: { title: string; items: Array<{ to: string; label: string; icon: string }> }[] = [
-  {
-    title: '数据流水线',
-    items: [
-      { to: '/admin/collection', label: '数据采集', icon: 'collection' },
-      { to: '/admin/data-completeness', label: '数据完整性', icon: 'chart' },
-      { to: '/admin/predictions', label: '预测历史', icon: 'logs' },
-      { to: '/admin/backtest', label: '回测', icon: 'repeat' },
-    ],
-  },
-  {
-    title: '评估与监控',
-    items: [
-      { to: '/admin/eval', label: '评估', icon: 'eval' },
-      { to: '/admin/monitoring', label: '监控', icon: 'monitor' },
-    ],
-  },
-  {
-    title: '系统设置',
-    items: [
-      { to: '/admin/settings', label: '设置', icon: 'settings' },
-      { to: '/admin/logs', label: '日志', icon: 'logs' },
-    ],
-  },
-]
+// D6: 导航三视图(侧栏/命令面板/面包屑)统一由 admin/nav.ts 的 NAV_ITEMS
+// 单源派生 —— 此处的 NAV_PAGES/ROUTE_LABELS/NAV_SECTIONS 平行清单已删除,
+// 新增页面/改标签只改 nav.ts 一处。

 /** 报眉日期行,与前台同款式 */
 function dateLine(): string {
@@ -156,7 +108,7 @@ export default function AdminLayout() {
  const [healthOk, setHealthOk] = useState<boolean | null>(null)
  const [authed, setAuthed] = useState<boolean | null>(null)
  const location = useLocation()
-  const palette = useCommandPalette(NAV_PAGES)
+  const palette = useCommandPalette(COMMAND_PALETTE_PAGES)

  // 登录门禁:挂载时探测会话,收到 401 事件(会话过期)自动切回登录页
  useEffect(() => {
@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 导航单源(D6)。
+ *
+ * 背景: 侧栏(NAV_SECTIONS)、命令面板(NAV_PAGES)、面包屑(ROUTE_LABELS)
+ * 此前各维护一份平行清单,已出现漂移 —— data-pipeline 不在侧栏、
+ * 「系统」vs「系统设置」命名不一致、monitoring/eval 两处顺序相反。
+ *
+ * 现在只允许维护 NAV_ITEMS 一份,其余视图一律由此派生;
+ * 禁止再新建平行导航清单(修改入口/新增页面只改这里)。
+ */
+
+export interface NavItem {
+  to: string
+  label: string
+  /** 命令面板中的分组名(展示原样) */
+  group: string
+  /** 侧栏图标名(见 AdminLayout 的 Icon) */
+  icon: string
+  /** 仅命令面板/面包屑可达,不进侧栏(深链页) */
+  hideFromSidebar?: boolean
+}
+
+/** 唯一的导航配置源。顺序 = 侧栏渲染顺序(命令面板分组内顺序与之相同)。 */
+export const NAV_ITEMS: NavItem[] = [
+  { to: '/admin', label: '仪表盘', group: '概览', icon: 'chart' },
+  { to: '/admin/collection', label: '数据采集', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'collection' },
+  { to: '/admin/data-completeness', label: '数据完整性', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'chart' },
+  { to: '/admin/data-pipeline', label: '数据管线', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'chart', hideFromSidebar: true },
+  { to: '/admin/predictions', label: '预测历史', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'logs' },
+  { to: '/admin/backtest', label: '回测', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'repeat' },
+  { to: '/admin/eval', label: '评估', group: '评估与监控', icon: 'eval' },
+  { to: '/admin/monitoring', label: '监控', group: '评估与监控', icon: 'monitor' },
+  { to: '/admin/settings', label: '设置', group: '系统', icon: 'settings' },
+  { to: '/admin/logs', label: '日志', group: '系统', icon: 'logs' },
+]
+
+/** 命令面板条目(原 NAV_PAGES 的唯一来源) */
+export const COMMAND_PALETTE_PAGES = NAV_ITEMS.map(({ to, label, group }) => ({ to, label, group }))
+
+/** 路由 → 面包屑标签(原 ROUTE_LABELS 的唯一来源) */
+export const ROUTE_LABELS: Record<string, string> = Object.fromEntries(
+  NAV_ITEMS.map(i => [i.to, i.label]),
+)
+
+/** 侧栏分组标题的历史显示名(仅侧栏使用;与面板分组名不同时在此映射) */
+const SIDEBAR_GROUP_TITLES: Record<string, string> = {
+  系统: '系统设置',
+}
+
+/**
+ * 侧栏分组(原 NAV_SECTIONS 的唯一来源)。
+ * 仪表盘(group=概览)在 AdminLayout 中独立渲染于顶部,不进分组循环。
+ */
+export const NAV_SECTIONS = (() => {
+  const sidebarItems = NAV_ITEMS.filter(i => !i.hideFromSidebar && i.group !== '概览')
+  const titles: string[] = []
+  for (const i of sidebarItems) {
+    const title = SIDEBAR_GROUP_TITLES[i.group] ?? i.group
+    if (!titles.includes(title)) titles.push(title)
+  }
+  return titles.map(title => ({
+    title,
+    items: sidebarItems
+      .filter(i => (SIDEBAR_GROUP_TITLES[i.group] ?? i.group) === title)
+      .map(({ to, label, icon }) => ({ to, label, icon })),
+  }))
+})()
@@ -0,0 +1,369 @@
+/**
+ * MatchDetailSection: 赛程行(MatchRow)+ 展开详情面板(统计/近况/H2H/历史预测)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。MatchRow 原先是主组件内
+ * group.map 的内联 JSX,现接收回调(onToggle/onPredict)保持行为一致;
+ * 展开懒加载的 state 仍由页面持有。
+ */
+import TeamSideTag from '../../../components/TeamSideTag'
+import { fetchMatchDetail, fetchMatchContext } from '../../../admin/dal'
+import type { MatchDetailOut, MatchContextOut, MatchRecentPrediction, TeamRecentMatch } from '../../../admin/types'
+import type { MatchStatsDetail } from '../../../admin/types'
+import { STATUS_META } from '../types'
+import type { Match } from '../types'
+import { Spinner } from '../ui'
+
+/** 比赛详情面板:双方近况/H2H + 历史预测列表(只读) */
+function MatchDetailPanel({
+  match, detail, ctx, loading,
+}: {
+  match: Match
+  detail: MatchDetailOut | undefined
+  ctx: MatchContextOut | undefined
+  loading: boolean
+}) {
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+  const finished = match.match_status === 'finished'
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-b border-ink-200 bg-paper-100/50 px-3 py-4">
+      {loading && (
+        <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs text-ink-500"><Spinner /> 加载详情中…</div>
+      )}
+
+      {!loading && !detail && !ctx && (
+        <p className="py-4 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无详情数据</p>
+      )}
+
+      {!loading && (detail || ctx) && (
+        <div className="space-y-5">
+          {/* 比分区(终场/当前比分 + 状态 + 预测按钮) */}
+          <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3">
+            <div className="text-center">
+              <p className="font-serif text-3xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900">
+                {match.home_goals ?? '-'}{' '}<span className="text-ink-300">:</span>{' '}{match.away_goals ?? '-'}
+              </p>
+              <p className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                {match.match_stage || ''} {match.match_status === 'finished' ? '· 已完赛' : match.match_status === 'scheduled' ? '· 未开赛' : `· ${match.match_status}`}
+              </p>
+              {match.home_xg != null && match.away_xg != null && (
+                <p className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">xG {match.home_xg.toFixed(1)}–{match.away_xg.toFixed(1)}</p>
+              )}
+            </div>
+            {!finished && (
+              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                点击行首「预测」按钮发起多专家分析
+              </span>
+            )}
+          </div>
+
+          {/* 比赛详细统计(bzzoiro /events/{id}/stats/) */}
+          {detail?.stats && (
+            <MatchStatsPanel stats={detail.stats} homeName={homeName} awayName={awayName} />
+          )}
+
+          {/* 双方近况 + H2H */}
+          {(ctx?.home_recent?.length || ctx?.away_recent?.length || ctx?.h2h?.length) ? (
+            <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-3">
+              <RecentBlock title={`${homeName} 近况`} rows={ctx?.home_recent} side="home" />
+              <RecentBlock title={`${awayName} 近况`} rows={ctx?.away_recent} side="away" />
+              <RecentBlock title="历史交锋(H2H)" rows={ctx?.h2h} side="h2h" />
+            </div>
+          ) : (
+            !loading && <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">暂无近期对战数据</p>
+          )}
+
+          {/* 历史预测列表 */}
+          <div>
+            <h4 className="section-head mb-2">历史预测({detail?.recent_predictions?.length ?? 0})</h4>
+            {detail?.recent_predictions?.length ? (
+              <div className="space-y-2">
+                {detail.recent_predictions.map(p => (
+                  <PredictionHistoryRow key={p.id} p={p} />
+                ))}
+              </div>
+            ) : (
+              <p className="py-3 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">该场比赛暂无预测记录</p>
+            )}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 赛程表一行:可点击展开详情;展开时懒加载详情(只读,不触发 LLM) */
+export function MatchRow({
+  m,
+  busy,
+  expanded,
+  detail,
+  ctx,
+  detailLoading,
+  onToggle,
+  onPredict,
+}: {
+  m: Match
+  busy: boolean
+  expanded: boolean
+  detail: MatchDetailOut | undefined
+  ctx: MatchContextOut | undefined
+  detailLoading: boolean
+  onToggle: () => void
+  onPredict: (m: Match) => void
+}) {
+  const st = STATUS_META[m.match_status] ?? { label: m.match_status, cls: 'text-ink-400' }
+  const homeName = m.home_team_zh || m.home_team
+  const awayName = m.away_team_zh || m.away_team
+  const finished = m.match_status === 'finished'
+
+  return (
+    <div>
+      {/* 行:可点击展开 */}
+      <div
+        className={`border-b border-ink-200 px-4 py-5 transition-colors hover:bg-paper-100/70 cursor-pointer sm:px-1 sm:py-4 ${
+          expanded ? 'bg-paper-100/60' : ''
+        }`}
+        onClick={onToggle}
+        role="button"
+        tabIndex={0}
+        onKeyDown={e => { if (e.key === 'Enter') onToggle() }}
+        aria-expanded={expanded}
+      >
+      {/* 桌面 grid: 日期 | 主队 | 比分 | 客队 | 状态 | 按钮 */}
+      <div className="flex flex-col gap-3 sm:grid sm:grid-cols-[96px_minmax(0,1fr)_72px_minmax(0,1fr)_64px_88px] sm:items-center sm:gap-x-4 sm:gap-y-0">
+        {/* 日期 + 状态:小屏同行;桌面 date 单独一列 */}
+        <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs sm:contents">
+          <span className="tabular-nums text-ink-500 sm:text-xs">{fmtTime(m.match_date)}</span>
+          <span className={`sm:hidden ${st.cls}`}>{st.label}</span>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 主队 + 比分 + 客队:移动端 grid 三列(严格居中),桌面端 grid 分列 */}
+        <div className="grid grid-cols-[1fr_auto_1fr] items-center gap-4 sm:contents">
+          {/* 主队(右对齐) */}
+          <span className="flex min-w-0 items-center justify-end gap-2">
+            <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+            <span className="truncate text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{homeName}</span>
+          </span>
+
+          {/* 比分 / VS(严格居中) */}
+          <span className="flex flex-col items-center justify-center">
+            {m.home_goals !== null && m.away_goals !== null ? (
+              <span className="font-serif text-xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900 sm:text-xl">
+                {m.home_goals}<span className="mx-1 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>{m.away_goals}
+              </span>
+            ) : (
+              <span className="text-sm tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-500">VS</span>
+            )}
+            {m.home_xg !== null && m.away_xg !== null && (
+              <span className="mt-0.5 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
+                xG {m.home_xg.toFixed(1)}–{m.away_xg.toFixed(1)}
+              </span>
+            )}
+          </span>
+
+          {/* 客队(左对齐) */}
+          <span className="flex min-w-0 items-center gap-2">
+            <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+            <span className="truncate text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{awayName}</span>
+          </span>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 状态标签:小屏隐藏(已有);桌面用徽标样式 */}
+        <span className="hidden text-right sm:block">
+          <span className={`inline-block border px-1.5 py-0.5 text-2xs leading-tight ${st.cls} ${
+            m.match_status === 'finished'
+              ? 'border-ink-200 text-ink-500'
+              : m.match_status === 'scheduled'
+                ? 'border-ink-300 text-ink-600'
+                : 'border-press/30 text-press'
+          }`}>
+            {st.label}
+          </span>
+        </span>
+
+        {/* 预测按钮(统一,响应式尺寸) */}
+        {!finished && (
+          <div className="flex justify-end" onClick={e => e.stopPropagation()}>
+            <button
+              onClick={() => onPredict(m)}
+              disabled={busy}
+              className={`btn ${busy ? '' : 'btn-solid'} w-full min-h-[44px] sm:w-[84px] sm:min-h-0 sm:btn-sm`}
+              title="以多专家模式预测这场"
+            >
+              {busy ? (<><Spinner /> 预测中</>) : '预测'}
+            </button>
+          </div>
+        )}
+      </div>
+      </div>{/* 关闭可点击行 */}
+
+      {/* 展开详情面板 */}
+      {expanded && (
+        <MatchDetailPanel
+          match={m} detail={detail} ctx={ctx}
+          loading={detailLoading}
+        />
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 行内时间展示:只显示 HH:mm(日期由分组头承担) */
+function fmtTime(s: string): string {
+  const d = new Date(s)
+  return d.toLocaleTimeString('zh-CN', { hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', hour12: false })
+}
+
+/** 比赛详细统计面板(bzzoiro /events/{id}/stats/) */
+function MatchStatsPanel({
+  stats, homeName, awayName,
+}: { stats: MatchStatsDetail; homeName: string; awayName: string }) {
+  const rows: Array<{ label: string; home: number | null; away: number | null; highlight?: 'high' | 'low' }> = [
+    { label: '预期进球(xG)', home: stats.home_xg, away: stats.away_xg },
+    { label: '射门', home: stats.home_shots, away: stats.away_shots },
+    { label: '射正', home: stats.home_shots_on_target, away: stats.away_shots_on_target },
+    { label: '角球', home: stats.home_corners, away: stats.away_corners },
+    { label: '犯规', home: stats.home_fouls, away: stats.away_fouls },
+    { label: '绝佳机会', home: stats.home_big_chances, away: stats.away_big_chances },
+    { label: '黄牌', home: stats.home_yellow_cards, away: stats.away_yellow_cards },
+    { label: '红牌', home: stats.home_red_cards, away: stats.away_red_cards },
+  ]
+  const hasAny = rows.some(r => r.home != null || r.away != null)
+  if (!hasAny) return null
+
+  // 控球率用横条展示
+  const possHome = stats.home_possession
+  const possAway = possHome != null ? Math.max(0, 100 - possHome) : null
+
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <h4 className="section-head mb-2">比赛统计</h4>
+
+      {/* 控球率横条 */}
+      {possHome != null && possAway != null && (
+        <div className="mb-3">
+          <div className="mb-1 flex justify-between text-2xs text-ink-500">
+            <span>{possHome.toFixed(0)}%</span>
+            <span className="text-ink-400">控球率</span>
+            <span>{possAway.toFixed(0)}%</span>
+          </div>
+          <div className="flex h-1.5 overflow-hidden rounded-full bg-ink-200">
+            <div className="bg-ink-700 transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${possHome}%` }} />
+            <div className="bg-ink-300 transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${possAway}%` }} />
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 主客对比表 */}
+      <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+        <table className="w-full text-xs">
+          <thead>
+            <tr className="border-b border-ink-200 text-ink-400">
+              <th className="py-1.5 text-left font-medium">{homeName}</th>
+              <th className="py-1.5 text-center font-medium text-ink-500">统计项</th>
+              <th className="py-1.5 text-right font-medium">{awayName}</th>
+            </tr>
+          </thead>
+          <tbody>
+            {rows.filter(r => r.home != null || r.away != null).map(r => {
+              const h = r.home ?? 0
+              const a = r.away ?? 0
+              const winner = h > a ? 'home' : h < a ? 'away' : 'tie'
+              return (
+                <tr key={r.label} className="border-b border-ink-100">
+                  <td className={`py-1.5 text-right tabular-nums ${winner === 'home' ? 'font-bold text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
+                    {r.home ?? '—'}
+                  </td>
+                  <td className="py-1.5 text-center text-ink-500">{r.label}</td>
+                  <td className={`py-1.5 text-left tabular-nums ${winner === 'away' ? 'font-bold text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
+                    {r.away ?? '—'}
+                  </td>
+                </tr>
+              )
+            })}
+          </tbody>
+        </table>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 近况/H2H 单区块 */
+function RecentBlock({ title, rows, side }: { title: string; rows?: TeamRecentMatch[]; side: 'home' | 'away' | 'h2h' }) {
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <h5 className="mb-1.5 text-2xs font-medium text-ink-500">{title}</h5>
+      {rows && rows.length > 0 ? (
+        <ul className="space-y-1">
+          {rows.map((r, i) => {
+            const date = r.match_date ? new Date(r.match_date).toLocaleDateString('zh-CN', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit' }) : '—'
+            const score = (r.home_goals != null && r.away_goals != null) ? `${r.home_goals}-${r.away_goals}` : 'vs'
+            const label = side === 'h2h'
+              ? `${r.home_team ?? '?'} ${score} ${r.away_team ?? '?'}`
+              : `${score}`
+            return (
+              <li key={i} className="flex items-center justify-between text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-600">
+                <span className="text-ink-400">{date}</span>
+                <span className="truncate">{label}</span>
+              </li>
+            )
+          })}
+        </ul>
+      ) : (
+        <p className="text-2xs text-ink-300">暂无</p>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 历史预测单行(含专家报告入口) */
+function PredictionHistoryRow({ p }: { p: MatchRecentPrediction }) {
+  const badge = p.status === 'degraded'
+    ? { label: 'degraded', cls: 'text-press' }
+    : p.settled
+      ? { label: p.correct_1x2 === undefined ? '已结算' : p.correct_1x2 ? '命中' : '未中', cls: p.correct_1x2 ? 'text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-400' }
+      : { label: p.status === 'success' ? '成功' : p.status, cls: 'text-ink-600' }
+  const score = (p.pred_home_goals != null && p.pred_away_goals != null)
+    ? `${p.pred_home_goals.toFixed(1)}-${p.pred_away_goals.toFixed(1)}`
+    : '—'
+  const alt = (p.alt_pred_home_goals != null && p.alt_pred_away_goals != null)
+    ? `${p.alt_pred_home_goals.toFixed(1)}-${p.alt_pred_away_goals.toFixed(1)}` : null
+  const hasAgents = p.agent_outputs && p.agent_outputs.length > 0
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-b border-ink-200 pb-2 last:border-b-0">
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs">
+        <span className="tabular-nums text-ink-600">
+          {score} {p.pred_1x2 ? `(${p.pred_1x2})` : ''}
+          {alt && <span className="ml-1 text-ink-400">备选 {alt}</span>}
+        </span>
+        <span className="flex items-center gap-2">
+          {p.subjective_confidence != null && (
+            <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">信心 {Math.round(p.subjective_confidence * 100)}%</span>
+          )}
+          <span className={`text-2xs ${badge.cls}`}>{badge.label}</span>
+        </span>
+      </div>
+      <div className="mt-0.5 flex items-center justify-between text-2xs text-ink-400">
+        <span className="truncate">{p.model} · {p.mode} · {p.created_at ? new Date(p.created_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit', hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', hour12: false }) : '—'}</span>
+        {hasAgents && <span className="text-press">{p.agent_outputs!.length} 路专家报告</span>}
+      </div>
+      {p.reasoning && (
+        <p className="mt-1 line-clamp-2 font-serif text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">{p.reasoning}</p>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// 详情懒加载取数在此文件内聚:页面只需切换 expandedId 并缓存结果
+export async function loadMatchDetailBundle(
+  matchId: number,
+): Promise<{ detail: MatchDetailOut | null; ctx: MatchContextOut | null }> {
+  const [d, c] = await Promise.all([
+    fetchMatchDetail(matchId).catch(() => null),
+    fetchMatchContext(matchId).catch(() => null),
+  ])
+  return { detail: d, ctx: c }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,527 @@
+/**
+ * MatchPredictPanel: 预测弹窗全套(过程可视化 / 结果版面 / 专家意见)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。对外只导出 PredictModal;
+ * PredictionPanel 复用 Prediction 的 embedded 模式由弹窗内渲染。
+ */
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import TeamSideTag from '../../../components/TeamSideTag'
+import type { AgentReport, Match, Prediction } from '../types'
+import { AGENT_LABELS, CN_NUM, OUTCOME_LABEL } from '../types'
+
+/** 置信度细线:0~1 数值的低调可视化 */
+function Meter({ value }: { value: number }) {
+  const pct = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Math.round(value * 100)))
+  return (
+    <div className="h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
+      <div className="h-px bg-press transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${pct}%` }} />
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** home_edge(-1~1,正=利主队)的可视化:以中线为原点的双向细条 */
+function EdgeBar({ value }: { value: number }) {
+  const v = Math.max(-1, Math.min(1, value))
+  const half = Math.abs(v) * 50
+  return (
+    <div className="relative h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
+      <span className="absolute left-1/2 top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 bg-ink-400" />
+      <span
+        className={`absolute top-0 h-px transition-all duration-500 ${v >= 0 ? 'bg-press' : 'bg-ink-600'}`}
+        style={
+          v >= 0
+            ? { left: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
+            : { right: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
+        }
+      />
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
+  return (
+    <svg
+      viewBox="0 0 20 20"
+      className={`h-3.5 w-3.5 animate-spin ${className}`}
+      fill="none"
+      aria-hidden="true"
+    >
+      <circle cx="10" cy="10" r="7.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeOpacity="0.25" />
+      <path d="M17.5 10A7.5 7.5 0 0010 2.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeLinecap="round" />
+    </svg>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 胜平负一行文字:选中的红字加方块标记,未选中的退灰 */
+function OutcomeLine({
+  pick,
+  confidence,
+}: {
+  pick: string | null
+  confidence: number | null
+}) {
+  const options = ['1', 'X', '2'] as const
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <div className="flex items-baseline justify-center gap-6 sm:gap-10">
+        {options.map(o => {
+          const on = pick === o
+          return (
+            <div key={o} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1">
+              <span className={`flex items-center gap-1.5 text-sm ${on ? 'font-semibold text-press' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
+                {on && <span className="inline-block h-2 w-2 bg-press" aria-hidden="true" />}
+                {OUTCOME_LABEL[o]}
+              </span>
+              {on && confidence !== null && (
+                <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+                  置信 {Math.round(confidence * 100)}%
+                </span>
+              )}
+            </div>
+          )
+        })}
+      </div>
+      {pick && confidence !== null && (
+        <div className="mx-auto mt-3 max-w-xs">
+          <Meter value={confidence} />
+          <p className="mt-1 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">主观置信度,非统计概率</p>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 预测成本展示:耗时 + token + 限流余量 */
+function PredictionCost({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
+  const latency = prediction.latency_ms != null ? `${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s` : null
+  const tokens = prediction.prompt_tokens != null || prediction.completion_tokens != null
+    ? `${prediction.prompt_tokens ?? '?'}/${prediction.completion_tokens ?? '?'}`
+    : null
+
+  if (!latency && !tokens && prediction.rate_limit_remaining == null) return null
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1">
+        {latency && (
+          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
+            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">⏱</span>耗时 {latency}
+          </span>
+        )}
+        {tokens && (
+          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
+            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">Tok</span>prompt/completion: {tokens}
+          </span>
+        )}
+        {prediction.rate_limit_remaining != null && prediction.rate_limit_remaining <= 3 && (
+          <span className="text-press" title="每分钟最多 10 次预测">
+            剩余配额: {prediction.rate_limit_remaining}/10(分钟)
+          </span>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 预测过程阶段(按时长模拟;结果到达即跳到完成) */
+function PredictProgress() {
+  const [elapsed, setElapsed] = useState(0)
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const t = setInterval(() => setElapsed(e => e + 0.5), 500)
+    return () => clearInterval(t)
+  }, [])
+
+  // 阶段阈值(秒): 切片 → 专家(各路依次点亮) → 终裁
+  const SLICE_END = 3
+  const AGENT_START = 4
+  const AGENT_STEP = 8        // 每路专家约 8s 点亮一路
+  const AGG_START = AGENT_START + AGENT_STEP * 5
+  const agents = ['form', 'stats', 'home_away', 'standings', 'h2h']
+
+  const phase = elapsed < SLICE_END ? 'slice'
+    : elapsed < AGG_START ? 'agents' : 'agg'
+
+  const pct = Math.min(95, Math.round((elapsed / 70) * 100))
+
+  return (
+    <div className="px-5 py-8 sm:px-8">
+      {/* 阶段标题 */}
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-center gap-2">
+        <Spinner className="text-press" />
+        <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+          {phase === 'slice' && '正在组装比赛数据切片'}
+          {phase === 'agents' && '五路专家并行分析中'}
+          {phase === 'agg' && '终裁专家汇总裁定中'}
+        </span>
+        <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">{elapsed.toFixed(0)}s</span>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 进度条:渐进式,不封顶到 100% */}
+      <div className="mx-auto mt-5 h-1 w-full max-w-md overflow-hidden bg-ink-100" role="progressbar" aria-valuenow={pct}>
+        <div
+          className={`h-full bg-press transition-all duration-500 ${phase === 'agg' ? 'animate-pulse' : ''}`}
+          style={{ width: `${pct}%` }}
+        />
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 专家灯序(多专家模式) */}
+      <ul className="mx-auto mt-6 max-w-md space-y-1.5">
+          {agents.map((a, i) => {
+            const lit = elapsed >= AGENT_START + AGENT_STEP * (i + 1)
+            const activeNow = !lit && elapsed >= AGENT_START + AGENT_STEP * i
+            return (
+              <li
+                key={a}
+                className={`flex items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 pb-1.5 text-xs transition-colors ${
+                  lit ? 'text-ink-800' : activeNow ? 'text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-300'
+                }`}
+              >
+                <span className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                  <span
+                    aria-hidden="true"
+                    className={`inline-block h-1.5 w-1.5 ${lit ? 'bg-ink-900' : activeNow ? 'bg-press animate-pulse' : 'bg-ink-200'}`}
+                  />
+                  {AGENT_LABELS[a] ?? a}
+                </span>
+                {lit && <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">✓ 完成</span>}
+                {activeNow && <span className="text-2xs text-press">分析中…</span>}
+              </li>
+            )
+          })}
+        </ul>
+
+      <p className="mt-6 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">
+        五路专家并行分析后终裁,约需 30-90 秒;多专家调用消耗较多 token,请按需使用。关闭窗口即取消
+      </p>
+      <p className="mt-1 text-center text-2xs text-ink-300">
+        提示:每分钟限 10 次预测,耗尽后需等待下一分钟。
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+const STATUS_BADGE: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
+  ok: { label: '正常', cls: 'text-ink-500' },
+  no_data: { label: '无数据', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  error: { label: '调用失败', cls: 'text-press' },
+  parse_error: { label: '解析失败', cls: 'text-press' },
+}
+
+const SUFFICIENCY_LABEL: Record<string, string> = {
+  high: '充分',
+  medium: '一般',
+  low: '偏少',
+  none: '无',
+}
+
+/** 单路专家意见:汉字编号 + 细线行 */
+function AgentCard({ report: r, no }: { report: AgentReport; no: string }) {
+  const badge = STATUS_BADGE[r.status] ?? { label: r.status, cls: 'text-ink-400' }
+  const inactive = r.status !== 'ok'
+
+  return (
+    <details className="group border-b border-ink-200">
+      <summary className="flex cursor-pointer list-none items-baseline gap-2.5 px-1 py-3">
+        <span className="font-serif text-sm text-ink-400">{no}</span>
+        <span className="text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{AGENT_LABELS[r.agent] ?? r.agent}</span>
+        <span className={`text-2xs ${badge.cls}`}>{badge.label}</span>
+
+        <span className="ml-auto flex items-baseline gap-3 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+          {r.status === 'ok' && r.subjective_confidence !== null && (
+            <span>信心 {Math.round(r.subjective_confidence * 100)}%</span>
+          )}
+          {r.status === 'ok' && r.probable_score && (
+            <span className="font-serif font-bold text-ink-800">{r.probable_score}</span>
+          )}
+          <svg viewBox="0 0 20 20" className="h-3 w-3 self-center text-ink-300 transition-transform group-open:rotate-90" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true">
+            <path d="M7.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0l4 4a1 1 0 010 1.4l-4 4a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L10.6 10 7.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
+          </svg>
+        </span>
+      </summary>
+
+      <div className="space-y-3 px-1 pb-4 pl-7">
+        {/* 无数据 / 失败时给出明确说明,避免用户以为是空白 bug */}
+        {inactive && (
+          <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
+            {r.status === 'no_data' && '该维度没有可用数据,已跳过 LLM 分析以节省额度(不影响其他专家)。'}
+            {r.status === 'error' && '该专家调用失败,本次结论未纳入其视角(fail-open 设计,不阻断整体预测)。'}
+            {r.status === 'parse_error' && '模型输出未通过格式校验,该报告已丢弃。'}
+          </p>
+        )}
+
+        {!inactive && r.home_edge !== null && (
+          <div>
+            <div className="mb-1.5 flex items-baseline justify-between text-2xs">
+              <span className="text-ink-500">主队优势</span>
+              <span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${r.home_edge > 0 ? 'text-press' : r.home_edge < 0 ? 'text-ink-700' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
+                {r.home_edge > 0 ? '+' : ''}{r.home_edge.toFixed(2)}
+              </span>
+            </div>
+            <EdgeBar value={r.home_edge} />
+            <div className="mt-1 flex justify-between text-2xs text-ink-400">
+              <span>利客队</span>
+              <span>利主队</span>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {r.analysis && (
+          <p className="font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{r.analysis}</p>
+        )}
+
+        {r.key_evidence.length > 0 && (
+          <ul className="space-y-1.5">
+            {r.key_evidence.map((e, i) => (
+              <li key={i} className="flex gap-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+                <span className="flex-shrink-0 text-ink-300" aria-hidden="true">—</span>
+                <span>{e}</span>
+              </li>
+            ))}
+          </ul>
+        )}
+
+        {r.exp_home_goals !== null && r.exp_away_goals !== null && (
+          <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">
+            进球期望 <span className="font-serif font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{r.exp_home_goals.toFixed(1)} - {r.exp_away_goals.toFixed(1)}</span>
+          </p>
+        )}
+
+        {!inactive && (
+          <p className="border-t border-ink-100 pt-2.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+            数据充分度 {SUFFICIENCY_LABEL[r.data_sufficiency] ?? r.data_sufficiency}
+            <span className="mx-2 text-ink-200">|</span>
+            <span className="font-mono">{r.model}</span>
+            {r.latency_ms !== null && <span className="ml-2 tabular-nums">{r.latency_ms}ms</span>}
+          </p>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </details>
+  )
+}
+
+function PredictionPanel({
+  prediction,
+  match,
+  embedded = false,
+}: {
+  prediction: Prediction
+  match: Match
+  /** 弹窗嵌入模式:弹窗已提供报头,这里省略自带版头 */
+  embedded?: boolean
+}) {
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const [expertsOpen, setExpertsOpen] = useState(false)
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+  const reports = prediction.agent_outputs ?? []
+  const okReports = reports.filter(r => r.status === 'ok')
+
+  return (
+    <article className={embedded ? 'bg-paper-50' : 'border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50'}>
+      {!embedded && (
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-2 border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
+        <h3 className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+          预测版 ·
+          <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+          {homeName}
+          <span>对</span>
+          <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+          {awayName}
+        </h3>
+        <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+          {prediction.provider} / {prediction.model}
+          {prediction.latency_ms !== null && ` · ${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`}
+        </span>
+      </div>
+      )}
+
+      <div className="space-y-7 px-4 py-6 sm:px-5">
+        {/* ── degraded / failed 态:醒目警示 + 原因,不展示虚假比分 ── */}
+        {degraded && (
+          <div className="border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-4 py-3">
+            <p className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-press-dark">
+              {prediction.status === 'failed' ? '预测失败' : '预测降级(degraded)'}
+            </p>
+            <p className="mt-1.5 whitespace-pre-wrap text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+              {prediction.reasoning || '所有专家均无有效数据或调用失败,无法生成可靠比分。'}
+            </p>
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {/* ── 主结论(仅 success 展示) ── */}
+        {!degraded && (
+          <>
+            <div className="text-center">
+              <p className="font-serif text-5xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900 sm:text-6xl">
+                {prediction.pred_home_goals ?? '-'}
+                <span className="mx-3 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>
+                {prediction.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}
+              </p>
+              <p className="mt-3 text-2xs tracking-[0.5em] text-ink-400">预测比分</p>
+              {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals != null && prediction.alt_pred_away_goals != null && (
+                <p className="mt-2 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
+                  备选{' '}
+                  <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-600">
+                    {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals}<span className="mx-0.5 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>{prediction.alt_pred_away_goals}
+                  </span>
+                </p>
+              )}
+            </div>
+
+            <div className="border-y border-ink-200 py-4">
+              <OutcomeLine pick={prediction.pred_1x2} confidence={prediction.subjective_confidence} />
+            </div>
+          </>
+        )}
+
+        {/* ── 成本信息(耗时 + token + 限流余量) ── */}
+        {!degraded && (
+          <PredictionCost prediction={prediction} />
+        )}
+
+        {/* ── 元信息 ── */}
+        <p className="text-center text-2xs text-ink-500">
+          `多专家模式 · ${okReports.length}/${reports.length} 路有效`
+          {prediction.prompt_version && ` · prompt ${prediction.prompt_version}`}
+        </p>
+
+        {/* ── 终裁/降级说明意见 ── */}
+        {prediction.reasoning && degraded && (
+          <section>
+            <h4 className="section-head mb-2">降级原因</h4>
+            <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
+              <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
+            </blockquote>
+          </section>
+        )}
+
+        {/* ── 专家意见(多模式):可折叠 + 状态摘要 + 权重条形图 ── */}
+        {reports.length > 0 && (
+          <section>
+            <button
+              onClick={() => setExpertsOpen(o => !o)}
+              className="flex w-full items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 pb-2 text-left"
+            >
+              <span className="section-head mb-0">五路专家意见({okReports.length}/{reports.length} 路有效)</span>
+              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">{expertsOpen ? '收起' : '展开'}</span>
+            </button>
+
+            {/* 权重条形图(仅 success 且有权重时显示) */}
+            {!degraded && prediction.agent_weights && Object.keys(prediction.agent_weights).length > 0 && (
+              <div className="mt-3 space-y-1.5">
+                <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">终裁权重分布</span>
+                {Object.entries(prediction.agent_weights)
+                  .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])
+                  .map(([k, v]) => (
+                    <div key={k} className="grid grid-cols-[96px_minmax(0,1fr)_40px] items-center gap-2">
+                      <span className="truncate text-2xs text-ink-500">{AGENT_LABELS[k] ?? k}</span>
+                      <div className="h-1.5 bg-paper-100">
+                        <div className="h-full bg-press" style={{ width: `${Math.round(v * 100)}%` }} />
+                      </div>
+                      <span className="text-right text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">{Math.round(v * 100)}%</span>
+                    </div>
+                  ))}
+              </div>
+            )}
+
+            {expertsOpen && (
+              <div className="mt-2">
+                {reports.map((r, i) => (
+                  <AgentCard key={r.agent} report={r} no={CN_NUM[i] ?? String(i + 1)} />
+                ))}
+              </div>
+            )}
+          </section>
+        )}
+
+        {/* ── 终裁意见(success) ── */}
+        {prediction.reasoning && !degraded && (
+          <section>
+            <h4 className="section-head mb-3">终裁意见</h4>
+            <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
+              <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
+            </blockquote>
+          </section>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </article>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 预测弹窗:进行中显示过程可视化,完成后显示预测版,失败显示原因 */
+export function PredictModal({
+  match,
+  predicting,
+  prediction,
+  error,
+  onClose,
+}: {
+  match: Match
+  predicting: boolean
+  prediction: Prediction | null
+  error: string | null
+  onClose: () => void
+}) {
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const h = (e: KeyboardEvent) => {
+      if (e.key === 'Escape') onClose()
+    }
+    document.addEventListener('keydown', h)
+    return () => document.removeEventListener('keydown', h)
+  }, [onClose])
+
+  return (
+    <div
+      className="fixed inset-0 z-50 flex items-start justify-center overflow-y-auto bg-ink-900/50 p-4 sm:items-center"
+      role="dialog"
+      aria-modal="true"
+      aria-label={`预测 ${homeName} 对 ${awayName}`}
+      onClick={e => {
+        if (e.target === e.currentTarget) onClose()
+      }}
+    >
+      <div className="relative flex max-h-[92vh] w-full max-w-2xl flex-col overflow-hidden bg-paper-50 shadow-2xl">
+        {/* 弹窗报头 */}
+        <div className="flex flex-shrink-0 items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
+          <h3 className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+            预测版 ·
+            <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+            {homeName}
+            <span>对</span>
+            <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+            {awayName}
+          </h3>
+          <button
+            onClick={onClose}
+            className="flex h-11 w-11 flex-shrink-0 items-center justify-center text-ink-400 transition-colors hover:text-ink-900"
+            aria-label="关闭"
+          >
+            <svg className="h-4 w-4" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true">
+              <path d="M6.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0L10 7.6l2.3-2.3a1 1 0 111.4 1.4L11.4 9l2.3 2.3a1 1 0 01-1.4 1.4L10 10.4l-2.3 2.3a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L8.6 9 6.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
+            </svg>
+          </button>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 弹窗体(小屏可滚动) */}
+        <div className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto">
+        {predicting ? (
+          <PredictProgress />
+        ) : error ? (
+          <div className="px-5 py-10 text-center sm:px-8">
+            <p className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-press">预测失败</p>
+            <p className="mx-auto mt-3 max-w-md whitespace-pre-wrap text-left text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+              {error}
+            </p>
+            <button onClick={onClose} className="btn btn-sm mt-6">关闭</button>
+          </div>
+        ) : prediction ? (
+          <PredictionPanel prediction={prediction} match={match} embedded />
+        ) : null}
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+/**
+ * useMatchPredict: 预测流程状态机(发起/进行中/结果/失败/关闭中止)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 拆出。语义不变:
+ *  - 连点防护:同一场比赛预测中再次点击直接忽略
+ *  - 竞态防护:递增序号,过期响应丢弃
+ *  - 关闭弹窗 = 中止在途请求 + 序号失效(catch/then 不再写入)
+ *  - 5 分钟超时,与 nginx 代理 300s 对齐
+ */
+import { useRef, useState } from 'react'
+import { http } from '../../../lib/http'
+import type { Match, Prediction } from '../types'
+
+/** 把后端/网络错误翻译成用户可读文案 */
+function readablePredictError(e: unknown): string {
+  if (e instanceof Error) {
+    const m = e.message
+    if (/429/.test(m)) {
+      // 429 来自后端限流(每分钟 10 次),非上游 LLM
+      return '操作过于频繁:每分钟最多 10 次预测。为保护 LLM 额度,请稍后再试。'
+    }
+    if (/502/.test(m)) return 'LLM 服务暂时不可用(502),请稍后重试'
+    if (/402|Payment Required|额度|余额/.test(m)) return 'LLM 额度不足(402),请检查 API Key 余额'
+    if (/400|已完赛/.test(m)) return '该比赛已完赛,不再支持预测'
+    if (/409|已结算/.test(m)) return '该预测已结算,不能重新预测'
+    if (/timeout|超时|timed out/i.test(m)) return '请求超时,请稍后重试'
+    return m
+  }
+  return String(e)
+}
+
+interface UseMatchPredictOptions {
+  /** 共享 error state(拆分前列表与预测共用同一个 error,行为保持一致) */
+  onError: (msg: string | null) => void
+}
+
+export function useMatchPredict({ onError }: UseMatchPredictOptions) {
+  const [predictingId, setPredictingId] = useState<number | null>(null)
+  const [prediction, setPrediction] = useState<Prediction | null>(null)
+  const [predictionFor, setPredictionFor] = useState<Match | null>(null)
+  const predictSeq = useRef(0)
+  // 预测请求控制器:关闭弹窗时中止
+  const predictAbort = useRef<AbortController | null>(null)
+
+  function closePredict() {
+    predictAbort.current?.abort()
+    predictSeq.current++  // 令中止请求的 catch/then 全部失效,不再写入错误
+    setPredictingId(null)
+    setPrediction(null)
+    setPredictionFor(null)
+    onError(null)
+  }
+
+  const predict = async (m: Match) => {
+    // 防连点:若该场比赛已在预测中,直接忽略
+    if (predictingId === m.id) return
+    const seq = ++predictSeq.current
+    setPredictingId(m.id)
+    onError(null)
+    setPrediction(null)
+    setPredictionFor(m)
+    // LLM 多专家预测耗时可达数分钟,给足超时(与 nginx 代理 300s 对齐)
+    const controller = new AbortController()
+    predictAbort.current = controller
+    const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), 300_000)
+    try {
+      const data = await http.post<Prediction>('/predict', { match_id: m.id, mode: 'multi' }, {
+        timeoutMs: 300_000,
+        signal: controller.signal,
+      })
+      if (seq !== predictSeq.current) return
+      setPrediction(data)
+    } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== predictSeq.current) return
+      onError(
+        e instanceof DOMException && e.name === 'AbortError'
+          ? '预测超时(5 分钟),请稍后重试'
+          : readablePredictError(e),
+      )
+    } finally {
+      clearTimeout(timer)
+      if (seq === predictSeq.current) setPredictingId(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  return {
+    predictingId,
+    prediction,
+    predictionFor,
+    predict,
+    closePredict,
+  }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+/**
+ * useMatchesList: 赛程列表数据获取(筛选/游标分页/进行中比赛)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 拆出。竞态防护语义不变 —— 递增序号只认最后一次请求;
+ * loadMore 不自增序号(切换筛选才自增,翻页跟随当前序列)。
+ */
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react'
+import { http } from '../../../lib/http'
+import type { Match } from '../types'
+
+interface UseMatchesListOptions {
+  /** 共享 error state(拆分前列表与预测共用同一个 error,行为保持一致) */
+  onError: (msg: string | null) => void
+}
+
+export function useMatchesList({ onError }: UseMatchesListOptions) {
+  const [league, setLeague] = useState('E0')
+  const [status, setStatus] = useState('scheduled')
+  const [matches, setMatches] = useState<Match[]>([])
+  const [nextCursor, setNextCursor] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [loadingMore, setLoadingMore] = useState(false)
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
+  const [showAllUpcoming, setShowAllUpcoming] = useState(false)  // 默认仅展示未来 3 天;true 展开全部
+  const [liveMatches, setLiveMatches] = useState<Match[]>([])  // 进行中比赛(顶部独立区块)
+
+  // 请求竞态防护:切换联赛/状态很快时,先发的慢请求可能后返回,
+  // 把旧结果覆盖到新筛选上。用递增序号只认最后一次请求的响应。
+  const loadSeq = useRef(0)
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    const seq = ++loadSeq.current
+    setLoading(true)
+    setLoadingMore(false)
+    setShowAllUpcoming(false)  // 切换筛选重置为「未来 3 天」视图
+    onError(null)
+    try {
+      const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status, limit: '50' })
+      const data = await http.get<{ items: Match[]; next_cursor: string | null }>(`/matches?${params}`)
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return // 已有更新的请求,丢弃本次结果
+      setMatches(data.items)
+      setNextCursor(data.next_cursor ?? null)
+    } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      onError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
+    } finally {
+      if (seq === loadSeq.current) setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [league, status, onError])
+
+  // 加载下一页(游标分页)
+  const loadMore = async () => {
+    if (!nextCursor || loadingMore) return
+    const seq = loadSeq.current // 不做自增:切换筛选会自增,这里只跟随当前序列
+    setLoadingMore(true)
+    try {
+      const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status, limit: '50', cursor: nextCursor })
+      const data = await http.get<{ items: Match[]; next_cursor: string | null }>(`/matches?${params}`)
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      setMatches(prev => [...prev, ...data.items])
+      setNextCursor(data.next_cursor ?? null)
+    } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      onError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
+    } finally {
+      if (seq === loadSeq.current) setLoadingMore(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  // 加载进行中比赛(顶部独立区块)
+  const loadLive = useCallback(async () => {
+    try {
+      const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status: 'in_play', limit: '20' })
+      const data = await http.get<{ items: Match[] }>(`/matches?${params}`)
+      setLiveMatches(data.items ?? [])
+    } catch {
+      /* ignore:进行中非核心功能 */
+    }
+  }, [league])
+
+  useEffect(() => { load(); loadLive() }, [load, loadLive])
+
+  return {
+    league, setLeague,
+    status, setStatus,
+    matches,
+    nextCursor,
+    loading,
+    loadingMore,
+    showAllUpcoming, setShowAllUpcoming,
+    liveMatches,
+    load,
+    loadMore,
+  }
+}
@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+/**
+ * Matches 页面族共享类型与常量。
+ *
+ * D3(工程债): Matches.tsx 原本 ~1400 行,类型/常量/预测面板/详情面板/
+ * 列表逻辑全部内联。本文件是拆分后的共享层 —— 只放数据契约与纯常量,
+ * 不含 React 组件。
+ */
+
+/** /matches 列表项(公开接口) */
+export interface Match {
+  id: number
+  league_code: string | null
+  season: string | null
+  home_team: string
+  away_team: string
+  home_team_zh: string | null
+  away_team_zh: string | null
+  match_date: string
+  match_status: string
+  home_goals: number | null
+  away_goals: number | null
+  match_stage: string | null
+  home_xg: number | null
+  away_xg: number | null
+}
+
+/** POST /predict 响应 */
+export interface Prediction {
+  prediction_id: number
+  provider: string
+  model: string
+  prompt_version: string | null
+  mode: string
+  pred_home_goals: number | null
+  pred_away_goals: number | null
+  alt_pred_home_goals: number | null
+  alt_pred_away_goals: number | null
+  pred_1x2: string | null
+  subjective_confidence: number | null
+  reasoning: string | null
+  status: string
+  agent_outputs: AgentReport[] | null
+  agent_weights: Record<string, number> | null
+  context: string
+  latency_ms: number | null
+  prompt_tokens: number | null
+  completion_tokens: number | null
+  rate_limit_remaining: number | null
+}
+
+/** 多专家单路报告 */
+export interface AgentReport {
+  agent: string
+  status: string
+  data_sufficiency: string
+  analysis: string
+  home_edge: number | null
+  subjective_confidence: number | null
+  key_evidence: string[]
+  exp_home_goals: number | null
+  exp_away_goals: number | null
+  probable_score: string | null
+  model: string
+  latency_ms: number | null
+}
+
+export const AGENT_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
+  h2h: '历史交锋分析专家',
+  form: '近期状态分析专家',
+  stats: '攻防数据分析专家',
+  home_away: '主客因素分析专家',
+  standings: '联赛排名分析专家',
+}
+
+export const LEAGUES = [
+  { code: 'E0', name: '英超' },
+  { code: 'SP1', name: '西甲' },
+  { code: 'D1', name: '德甲' },
+  { code: 'I1', name: '意甲' },
+  { code: 'F1', name: '法甲' },
+]
+
+/** 汉字编号,给专家意见排版用 */
+export const CN_NUM = ['一', '二', '三', '四', '五', '六', '七', '八']
+
+export const STATUS_META: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
+  finished: { label: '已完赛', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  scheduled: { label: '未开赛', cls: 'text-ink-600' },
+  // 键与 normalize.py 的 VALID_STATUS 对齐: 库里存的是 in_play(上游 live 被归一化),不存在 'live' 状态
+  in_play: { label: '进行中', cls: 'text-press font-medium' },
+  paused: { label: '暂停', cls: 'text-press font-medium' },
+  postponed: { label: '延期', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  cancelled: { label: '取消', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  suspended: { label: '中止', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+}
+
+/** 1x2 → 中文标签 */
+export const OUTCOME_LABEL: Record<string, string> = { '1': '主胜', X: '平局', '2': '客胜' }
@@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
+/**
+ * Matches 页面族共享的原子 UI 小件(无业务状态)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 内联定义上移到模块级 —— Switch 原先定义在组件函数
+ * 体内(每次渲染重建组件对象),它没有内部 state,提升后渲染结果一致。
+ */
+import type { Match } from './types'
+
+export function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
+  return (
+    <svg
+      viewBox="0 0 20 20"
+      className={`h-3.5 w-3.5 animate-spin ${className}`}
+      fill="none"
+      aria-hidden="true"
+    >
+      <circle cx="10" cy="10" r="7.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeOpacity="0.25" />
+      <path d="M17.5 10A7.5 7.5 0 0010 2.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeLinecap="round" />
+    </svg>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 骨架占位行:低调脉动灰块 */
+export function SkeletonRows({ n = 4 }: { n?: number }) {
+  return (
+    <>
+      {Array.from({ length: n }).map((_, i) => (
+        <div key={i} className="flex items-center gap-4 border-b border-ink-200 px-1 py-3.5">
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 w-16" />
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 flex-1" />
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 w-10" />
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 flex-1" />
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 w-16" />
+        </div>
+      ))}
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 状态/模式一组的文字切换 */
+export function Switch({ value, onChange, items }: {
+  value: string
+  onChange: (v: string) => void
+  items: { v: string; label: string; title?: string }[]
+}) {
+  return (
+    <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2.5">
+      {items.map((it, i) => (
+        <span key={it.v} className="inline-flex items-center gap-2.5">
+          {i > 0 && <span className="text-ink-300" aria-hidden="true">/</span>}
+          <button
+            onClick={() => onChange(it.v)}
+            title={it.title}
+            className={`relative tab ${value === it.v ? 'tab-on' : ''} text-xs`}
+          >
+            {it.label}
+          </button>
+        </span>
+      ))}
+    </span>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 日期分组头显示:今日/明天/周几 · 年月日 */
+export function formatDateHeader(dateKey: string): string {
+  if (!dateKey) return '未开赛'
+  const d = new Date(dateKey + 'T00:00:00')
+  if (isNaN(d.getTime())) return dateKey
+  const today = new Date()
+  const todayKey = `${today.getFullYear()}-${String(today.getMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(today.getDate()).padStart(2, '0')}`
+  const tmr = new Date(today)
+  tmr.setDate(tmr.getDate() + 1)
+  const tmrKey = `${tmr.getFullYear()}-${String(tmr.getMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(tmr.getDate()).padStart(2, '0')}`
+  const weekday = ['周日', '周一', '周二', '周三', '周四', '周五', '周六'][d.getDay()]
+  if (dateKey === todayKey) return `今日 ${weekday}`
+  if (dateKey === tmrKey) return `明日 ${weekday}`
+  return `${d.getMonth() + 1}月${d.getDate()}日 ${weekday}`
+}
+
+/** UTC ISO → 本地日期 YYYY-MM-DD(用于分组) */
+export function toLocalDateKey(iso: string): string {
+  const d = new Date(iso)
+  return `${d.getFullYear()}-${String(d.getMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(d.getDate()).padStart(2, '0')}`
+}
+
+/** 按本地日期分组(非 UTC),保持时间序 */
+export function groupByDate(list: Match[]): Array<[string, Match[]]> {
+  const map = new Map<string, Match[]>()
+  for (const m of list) {
+    const key = toLocalDateKey(m.match_date)
+    const arr = map.get(key)
+    if (arr) arr.push(m)
+    else map.set(key, [m])
+  }
+  return [...map.entries()]
+}
+
+/** 日期 key 辅助:YYYY-MM-DD(本地时区) */
+function dateKey(d: Date): string {
+  return `${d.getFullYear()}-${String(d.getMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(d.getDate()).padStart(2, '0')}`
+}
+
+/** 未来 3 天窗口:今天 00:00 → 第 3 天 00:00(即今天/明天/后天) */
+function addDays(d: Date, n: number): string {
+  const x = new Date(d)
+  x.setFullYear(x.getFullYear(), x.getMonth(), x.getDate() + n)
+  return dateKey(x)
+}
+
+/** 比赛是否在未来 3 天内(用于默认视图过滤) */
+export function withinNext3Days(matchDate: string): boolean {
+  const key = toLocalDateKey(matchDate)
+  return key >= dateKey(new Date()) && key < addDays(new Date(), 3)
+}
@@ -30,6 +30,16 @@ async def lifespan(app: FastAPI) -> AsyncIterator[None]:
    await ensure_admin_password_hashed()  # .env 明文密码 → scrypt 哈希(幂等)
    await assert_security_on_startup()  # 启动安全校验(生产拒绝/开发警告)

+    # D7(工程债): 进程内限流(_RateLimiter)与 KeyRing 均为单进程状态;
+    # 多 worker 部署时各进程独立计数,限流阈值会按 worker 数放大、KeyRing 不共享。
+    # 生产环境应将限流前置到 Nginx/网关,或以单 worker 运行(见 src/api/deps.py 注释)。
+    # 此处仅提醒一次,不阻断启动,也不引入 Redis 等外部依赖。
+    if settings.APP_ENV == "production":
+        logger.warning(
+            "APP_ENV=production: 进程内 rate-limit 与 KeyRing 仅单进程有效;"
+            "多 worker 部署请将限流前置到 Nginx/网关,或以单 worker 运行"
+        )
+
    # 注册默认定时任务(如果数据库中没有)
    from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
    from sqlalchemy import select
@@ -63,7 +63,8 @@ async def predict(req: PredictRequest, request: Request):
        logger.exception("predict unexpected error")
        raise HTTPException(500, "预测失败,请查看服务器日志")

-    # baseline 模式:结果已是 dict,需独立落库(prediction_id)
+    # D2: 三种模式统一返回 PredictResult —— 字段映射单一化,无 dict 分支。
+    # 仅 baseline 的 prediction_id 需要在此落库补齐(服务层不落库)。
    if req.mode == "baseline":
        prediction_id = await _persist_baseline(req.match_id, result)
    else:
@@ -73,38 +74,34 @@ async def predict(req: PredictRequest, request: Request):
    logger.info(
        "预测完成 match=%s mode=%s pred=%s:%s (%s)",
        req.match_id, req.mode,
-        result.get("pred_home_goals") if isinstance(result, dict) else result.pred_home_goals,
-        result.get("pred_away_goals") if isinstance(result, dict) else result.pred_away_goals,
-        result.get("pred_1x2") if isinstance(result, dict) else result.pred_1x2,
+        result.pred_home_goals, result.pred_away_goals, result.pred_1x2,
    )

-    result_dict = result if isinstance(result, dict) else None
-
    return PredictOut(
        prediction_id=prediction_id,
-        provider=result.get("provider") if result_dict else result.provider,
-        model=result.get("model") if result_dict else result.model,
-        prompt_version=result.get("prompt_version") if result_dict else getattr(result, "prompt_version", None),
+        provider=result.provider,
+        model=result.model,
+        prompt_version=result.prompt_version,
        mode=req.mode,
-        pred_home_goals=result.get("pred_home_goals") if result_dict else result.pred_home_goals,
-        pred_away_goals=result.get("pred_away_goals") if result_dict else result.pred_away_goals,
-        alt_pred_home_goals=result.get("alt_pred_home_goals") if result_dict else result.alt_pred_home_goals,
-        alt_pred_away_goals=result.get("alt_pred_away_goals") if result_dict else result.alt_pred_away_goals,
-        pred_1x2=result.get("pred_1x2") if result_dict else result.pred_1x2,
-        subjective_confidence=result.get("subjective_confidence") if result_dict else result.subjective_confidence,
-        reasoning=result.get("reasoning") if result_dict else result.reasoning,
-        status=result.get("status", "success") if result_dict else getattr(result, "status", "success"),
-        agent_outputs=result.get("agent_outputs") if result_dict else getattr(result, "agent_outputs", None),
-        agent_weights=result.get("agent_weights") if result_dict else getattr(result, "agent_weights", None),
-        context=result.get("context", "") if result_dict else result.context,
-        latency_ms=result.get("latency_ms", 0) if result_dict else result.latency_ms,
-        prompt_tokens=result.get("prompt_tokens") if result_dict else getattr(result, "prompt_tokens", None),
-        completion_tokens=result.get("completion_tokens") if result_dict else getattr(result, "completion_tokens", None),
+        pred_home_goals=result.pred_home_goals,
+        pred_away_goals=result.pred_away_goals,
+        alt_pred_home_goals=result.alt_pred_home_goals,
+        alt_pred_away_goals=result.alt_pred_away_goals,
+        pred_1x2=result.pred_1x2,
+        subjective_confidence=result.subjective_confidence,
+        reasoning=result.reasoning,
+        status=result.status,
+        agent_outputs=result.agent_outputs,
+        agent_weights=result.agent_weights,
+        context=result.context,
+        latency_ms=result.latency_ms,
+        prompt_tokens=result.prompt_tokens,
+        completion_tokens=result.completion_tokens,
        rate_limit_remaining=get_predict_rate_limit_remaining(request),
    )


-async def _persist_baseline(match_id: int, baseline: dict) -> int:
+async def _persist_baseline(match_id: int, baseline: PredictResult) -> int:
    """将基线预测结果写入 prediction 表,复用 upsert 语义。"""
    from src.db.unit_of_work import get_uow
    from src.llm.predict import _upsert_prediction
@@ -118,16 +115,16 @@ async def _persist_baseline(match_id: int, baseline: dict) -> int:
            mode="baseline",
            run_type="live",  # baseline 是 live 预测的变体,符合 ck_run_type_enum
            values={
-                "prompt_version": "baseline_v1",
-                "prompt_tokens": 0,
-                "completion_tokens": 0,
-                "latency_ms": 0,
-                "pred_home_goals": baseline["pred_home_goals"],
-                "pred_away_goals": baseline["pred_away_goals"],
-                "pred_1x2": baseline["pred_1x2"],
-                "subjective_confidence": baseline["subjective_confidence"],
-                "reasoning": baseline["reasoning"],
-                "raw_response": baseline.get("raw", baseline),
+                "prompt_version": baseline.prompt_version,
+                "prompt_tokens": baseline.prompt_tokens or 0,
+                "completion_tokens": baseline.completion_tokens or 0,
+                "latency_ms": baseline.latency_ms or 0,
+                "pred_home_goals": baseline.pred_home_goals,
+                "pred_away_goals": baseline.pred_away_goals,
+                "pred_1x2": baseline.pred_1x2,
+                "subjective_confidence": baseline.subjective_confidence,
+                "reasoning": baseline.reasoning,
+                "raw_response": baseline.raw,
                "status": "success",
            },
        )
@@ -5,7 +5,9 @@
  2. standings— 联赛积分榜快照(/leagues/{id}/standings/)
  3. stats    — 已完赛比赛详细统计回填(/events/{id}/stats/)

-使用 Repository 模式进行数据访问,不直接控制事务(由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制)。
+D4(工程债): Team/League/Match 的查找/创建经 Repository 层(src/db/repositories.py),
+本模块不直接控制事务(commit/rollback 由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制,这里只 flush)。
+Standing/RawEvent/Lineage 等管线内私有读写仍在本模块内实现,不强行 Repository 化。
 """
 from __future__ import annotations

@@ -16,7 +18,6 @@ from collections.abc import Iterable
 from datetime import datetime, timedelta, timezone

 from sqlalchemy import select
-from sqlalchemy.orm import selectinload

 import httpx

@@ -27,7 +28,8 @@ from src.data.key_ring import _mask, get_key_ring
 from src.data.normalize import normalize_bzzoiro
 from src.data.team_names_zh import zh_name
 from src.data.sources import register
-from src.db.models import League, Match, MatchStats, Standing, Team, RawEvent, IngestFailure, DataLineage
+from src.db.models import Match, MatchStats, Standing, Team, RawEvent, IngestFailure, DataLineage
+from src.db.repositories import LeagueRepository, MatchRepository, TeamRepository

 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)

@@ -210,13 +212,12 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                result["leagues"][code] = league_r
                continue

-            # 获取或创建联赛
-            stmt = select(League).where(League.code == code)
-            league = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
-            if league is None:
-                league = League(code=code, name=LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code), country=LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code))
-                db.add(league)
-                await db.flush()
+            # D4: 联赛查找/创建经 LeagueRepository(事务仍由调用方 UoW 提交)
+            league = await LeagueRepository(db).get_or_create(
+                code, LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code), LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code)
+            )
+            team_r = TeamRepository(db)
+            match_r = MatchRepository(db)

            # === 批量优化: 预加载球队和已有比赛到内存 ===
            team_name_to_id: dict[str, int] = {}
@@ -242,9 +243,10 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                        all_team_names.add(nm.away_team)

                if all_team_names:
-                    stmt = select(Team).where(Team.name.in_(all_team_names))
-                    teams = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalars().all()
-                    team_name_to_id = {t.name: t.id for t in teams}
+                    team_name_to_id = {
+                        name: t.id
+                        for name, t in (await team_r.get_all_by_names(list(all_team_names))).items()
+                    }

                # P1-2: 按需加载,只加载 raw_events 涉及日期范围的比赛(加 30 天缓冲)
                # 避免加载联赛全部历史比赛到内存(多赛季采集时内存溢出)
@@ -254,33 +256,34 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                    if dates:
                        min_dt = min(dates) - timedelta(days=30)
                        max_dt = max(dates) + timedelta(days=30)
-                        stmt = (
-                            select(Match)
-                            .where(Match.league_id == league.id)
-                            .where(Match.match_date >= min_dt)
-                            .where(Match.match_date <= max_dt)
+                        matches_in_range = await match_r.find_by_league_and_date_range(
+                            league.id, min_dt, max_dt
                        )
                        existing_matches = {
                            _match_key(m.home_team_id, m.away_team_id, m.match_date_date): m
-                            for m in (await db.execute(stmt)).scalars()
+                            for m in matches_in_range
                        }
                # else: existing_matches 保持空 dict(全量新比赛)

+            # D1: Bronze 层批次信息(每联赛每批次一个 batch_id;seen 防同批重复写入)
+            now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
+            bronze_batch_id = f"bzzoiro-events-{code}-{now:%Y%m%d%H%M%S}"
+            bronze_written: set[str] = set()
+
            for nm, raw in normalized_matches:
-                # 球队: 内存查找 + 按需创建
+                # D1: RawEvent 幂等键(上游 id 或合成键),插入/变更更新共用
+                record_id = _events_record_id(code, nm, raw)
+
+                # 球队: 内存查找 + 按需创建(D4: 经 TeamRepository)
                home_team_id = team_name_to_id.get(nm.home_team)
                if home_team_id is None:
-                    home = Team(name=nm.home_team, name_zh=zh_name(nm.home_team))
-                    db.add(home)
-                    await db.flush()
+                    home = await team_r.get_or_create(nm.home_team, name_zh=zh_name(nm.home_team))
                    home_team_id = home.id
                    team_name_to_id[nm.home_team] = home_team_id

                away_team_id = team_name_to_id.get(nm.away_team)
                if away_team_id is None:
-                    away = Team(name=nm.away_team, name_zh=zh_name(nm.away_team))
-                    db.add(away)
-                    await db.flush()
+                    away = await team_r.get_or_create(nm.away_team, name_zh=zh_name(nm.away_team))
                    away_team_id = away.id
                    team_name_to_id[nm.away_team] = away_team_id

@@ -310,6 +313,18 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                    # 统计字段不在 /events/ 载荷中(单独由 stats 管线回填),
                    # 此处不再创建 MatchStats。
                    league_r["inserted"] += 1
+                    # D1: 成功插入 → 补写 Bronze 层(原始载荷 + 血缘)
+                    if record_id not in bronze_written:
+                        bronze_written.add(record_id)
+                        await _write_events_bronze(
+                            db,
+                            source_record_id=record_id,
+                            raw_payload=raw,
+                            target_match_id=m.id,
+                            league_code=code,
+                            match_status=nm.match_status,
+                            batch_id=bronze_batch_id,
+                        )
                else:
                    # 已有比赛: 直接从内存获取对象更新(无需再查询)
                    changed = False
@@ -332,6 +347,18 @@ class BzzoiroSource:
                            changed = True
                    if changed:
                        league_r["updated"] += 1
+                        # D1: 变更更新 → 补写血缘(RawEvent 幂等键不变,重复采集自动跳过)
+                        if record_id not in bronze_written:
+                            bronze_written.add(record_id)
+                            await _write_events_bronze(
+                                db,
+                                source_record_id=record_id,
+                                raw_payload=raw,
+                                target_match_id=existing_match.id,
+                                league_code=code,
+                                match_status=nm.match_status,
+                                batch_id=bronze_batch_id,
+                            )

            # 注意: 不在此处 commit,由调用方 UnitOfWork 控制事务
            result["leagues"][code] = league_r
@@ -412,6 +439,53 @@ async def _write_lineage(db, source_system: str, source_record_id: str, target_t
    ))


+def _events_record_id(league_code: str, nm, raw: dict) -> str:
+    """events 载荷的 RawEvent 幂等键。
+
+    优先用上游 event id;缺失时用 (league:home:away:date) 合成稳定键 ——
+    取 normalize 后的队名与天级日期(与 _match_key 同口径),不依赖 DB 自增 id,
+    保证同一来源比赛重复采集时命中同一条 RawEvent,不产生重复原始载荷。
+    """
+    eid = _to_int_or_none(raw.get("id"))
+    if eid is not None:
+        return str(eid)
+    d = _to_date(nm.date)
+    date_part = d.isoformat() if d is not None else "na"
+    return f"{league_code}:{nm.home_team}:{nm.away_team}:{date_part}"
+
+
+async def _write_events_bronze(
+    db,
+    *,
+    source_record_id: str,
+    raw_payload: dict,
+    target_match_id: int | None,
+    league_code: str,
+    match_status: str | None,
+    batch_id: str,
+) -> None:
+    """events 成功插入/更新单场比赛后的 Bronze 层补写:RawEvent(幂等) + DataLineage。
+
+    D1(工程债):此前只有 stats 回填写 RawEvent/Lineage,events 管线作为比赛
+    主数据的唯一入口反而不留溯源记录。幂等性由 _write_raw_event 的
+    source_record_id 查重保证;best-effort:基础设施写入失败只记 warning,
+    绝不拖垮采集主流程(与 _safe_write_ingest_failure 同级约束)。
+    """
+    try:
+        await _write_raw_event(db, "bzzoiro", source_record_id, raw_payload, batch_id)
+        await _write_lineage(
+            db, "bzzoiro", source_record_id,
+            "matches", target_match_id, "events_ingest",
+            {"league": league_code, "match_status": match_status},
+            batch_id,
+        )
+    except Exception:
+        logger.warning(
+            "events Bronze 写入失败(record=%s, match=%s),不影响采集主流程",
+            source_record_id, target_match_id, exc_info=True,
+        )
+
+
 # ============================================================
 # 积分榜管线:/leagues/{id}/standings/ → standings 表
 # ============================================================
@@ -473,13 +547,11 @@ async def ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, *, leagues: Iterable[str], season: str |
            result["errors"].append(f"{code}: 无积分榜数据")
            continue

-        # 联赛(get-or-create)
-        stmt = select(League).where(League.code == code)
-        league = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()
-        if league is None:
-            league = League(code=code, name=LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code), country=LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code))
-            db.add(league)
-            await db.flush()
+        # 联赛(get-or-create,D4: 经 LeagueRepository)
+        league = await LeagueRepository(db).get_or_create(
+            code, LEAGUE_NAMES.get(code, code), LEAGUE_COUNTRIES.get(code)
+        )
+        team_r = TeamRepository(db)

        # 赛季标签:优先用返回的 season 对象推导
        season_obj = payload.get("season") or {}
@@ -492,11 +564,7 @@ async def ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, *, leagues: Iterable[str], season: str |
        # 批量预载球队(与 events 管线使用同一 normalize 规则,保证 Team 匹配)
        names = {normalize_name(str(r.get("team_name", ""))) for r in rows}
        names.discard("")
-        team_map: dict[str, Team] = {}
-        if names:
-            stmt = select(Team).where(Team.name.in_(names))
-            for t in (await db.execute(stmt)).scalars():
-                team_map[t.name] = t
+        team_map: dict[str, Team] = await team_r.get_all_by_names(list(names))

        now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
        for r in rows:
@@ -505,9 +573,7 @@ async def ingest_bzzoiro_standings(db, *, leagues: Iterable[str], season: str |
                continue
            team = team_map.get(team_name)
            if team is None:
-                team = Team(name=team_name, name_zh=zh_name(team_name))
-                db.add(team)
-                await db.flush()
+                team = await team_r.get_or_create(team_name, name_zh=zh_name(team_name))
                team_map[team_name] = team
                league_r["teams_created"] += 1

@@ -648,16 +714,10 @@ async def ingest_bzzoiro_event_stats(
        result["errors"].append("无有效联赛代码")
        return result

-    stmt = (
-        select(Match)
-        .options(selectinload(Match.stats))
-        .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
-        .where(Match.source_event_id.is_not(None))
-        .where(Match.league_id.in_(league_ids))
-        .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
-        .limit(limit * 3 if only_missing else limit)
+    # D4: 候选比赛查询经 MatchRepository(含 stats 预加载,筛选/排序/limit 语义不变)
+    matches = await MatchRepository(db).find_finished_with_stats(
+        league_ids, limit=limit * 3 if only_missing else limit
    )
-    matches = (await db.execute(stmt)).scalars().all()

    now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
    processed = 0
@@ -1,7 +1,8 @@
 """API Key 轮换环:多 key 自动切换,遇到限流(429)自动跳过已冷却 key。

 设计:
-  - 进程内纯内存状态(限速是短时状态,无需持久化)
+  - 进程内纯内存状态(限速是短时状态,无需持久化;D7: 多 worker 部署时各进程
+    独立计数、不共享,上游限速额度应按 worker 数分摊,或前置网关统一管理)
  - 单 key 场景零开销:直接透传
  - 多 key 场景:429 时把当前 key 标记冷却(默认 60s),轮转到下一个可用 key
  - 全部 key 都在冷却时:使用最早冷却的那个 key 并等待(退化到单 key 重试)
@@ -232,7 +232,9 @@ class Prediction(Base):
    raw_response: Mapped[dict | None] = mapped_column(JSONB)
    # multi-agent 模式: 各专家报告
    mode: Mapped[str] = mapped_column(String(20), nullable=False, default="single")
-    agent_outputs: Mapped[dict | None] = mapped_column(JSONB)
+    # D5: multi-agent 模式存各专家报告列表(list[dict]);历史数据/兼容路径可能存 dict。
+    # 仅修正类型标注与真实 JSON 形状一致,列类型(JSONB)与数据不变。
+    agent_outputs: Mapped[list[dict] | dict | None] = mapped_column(JSONB)
    # Fix: agent_weights 独立持久化到列(原本只在 raw_response 中)
    agent_weights: Mapped[dict | None] = mapped_column(JSONB)
    # 预测状态: success / failed / degraded
@@ -64,6 +64,34 @@ class MatchRepository:
        )
        return (await self._session.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()

+    async def find_by_league_and_date_range(
+        self, league_id: int, start, end
+    ) -> list[Match]:
+        """批量预加载某联赛日期范围内的比赛(ingest 管线内存去重用)。"""
+        stmt = (
+            select(Match)
+            .where(Match.league_id == league_id)
+            .where(Match.match_date >= start)
+            .where(Match.match_date <= end)
+        )
+        return (await self._session.execute(stmt)).scalars().all()
+
+    async def find_finished_with_stats(self, league_ids: list[int], *, limit: int) -> list[Match]:
+        """已完赛且有上游 event id 的比赛(按日期倒序),供统计回填逐场拉取。
+
+        预加载 stats:调用方需读取 existing.stats 判断是否跳过。
+        """
+        stmt = (
+            select(Match)
+            .options(selectinload(Match.stats))
+            .where(Match.match_status == "finished")
+            .where(Match.source_event_id.is_not(None))
+            .where(Match.league_id.in_(league_ids))
+            .order_by(Match.match_date.desc())
+            .limit(limit)
+        )
+        return (await self._session.execute(stmt)).scalars().all()
+
    async def add(self, match: Match) -> None:
        self._session.add(match)
        await self._session.flush()
@@ -79,11 +107,11 @@ class TeamRepository:
        stmt = select(Team).where(Team.name == name)
        return (await self._session.execute(stmt)).scalar_one_or_none()

-    async def get_or_create(self, name: str) -> Team:
-        """按名获取球队,不存在则创建。"""
+    async def get_or_create(self, name: str, *, name_zh: str | None = None) -> Team:
+        """按名获取球队,不存在则创建(name_zh 供 bzzoiro 管线写中文名)。"""
        team = await self.get_by_name(name)
        if team is None:
-            team = Team(name=name)
+            team = Team(name=name, name_zh=name_zh)
            self._session.add(team)
            await self._session.flush()
        return team
@@ -6,14 +6,13 @@ import hashlib
 import json
 import logging
 import time
-from dataclasses import dataclass
 from datetime import datetime, timezone

 from src.core.config import settings
 from src.db.base import AsyncSessionLocal
 from src.db.models import Match, Prediction
 from src.db.unit_of_work import get_uow
-from src.llm.predict import _upsert_prediction
+from src.llm.predict import PredictResult, _upsert_prediction
 from src.llm.agents.base import AgentReport, AgentSpec, load_agent_prompt
 from src.llm.context_builder import (
    MatchHeader,
@@ -81,28 +80,12 @@ AGENT_LABELS_ZH: dict[str, str] = {
 }


-@dataclass
-class MultiPredictResult:
-    prediction_id: int
-    provider: str
-    model: str
-    prompt_version: str
-    mode: str
-    pred_home_goals: float | None
-    pred_away_goals: float | None
-    alt_pred_home_goals: int | None
-    alt_pred_away_goals: int | None
-    pred_1x2: str | None
-    subjective_confidence: float | None
-    reasoning: str | None
-    context: str
-    agent_outputs: list[dict]
-    agent_weights: dict | None
-    status: str = "success"
-    latency_ms: int | None = None
-    prompt_tokens: int | None = None
-    completion_tokens: int | None = None
-    raw: dict | None = None
+# D2(工程债): multi 结果类型与 single 统一 —— 扩展后的 PredictResult 用可选
+# 字段(agent_outputs/agent_weights/prompt_tokens/completion_tokens/mode)承载
+# 全部模式,此处仅保留别名。保留 `MultiPredictResult` 名字的原因:
+#   1. predict_match_multi 签名 `-> MultiPredictResult:` 是 R4 源码守卫的标记;
+#   2. src/llm/agents/__init__.py 对外 re-export 该名字。
+MultiPredictResult = PredictResult


 async def _agent_provider(agent_id: str, *, tier: str, model_override: str | None = None) -> LLMProvider:
@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ from sqlalchemy import case, func, select

 from src.db.base import AsyncSession, AsyncSessionLocal
 from src.db.models import Match
+from src.llm.predict import PredictResult

 logger = logging.getLogger(__name__)

@@ -52,11 +53,13 @@ async def predict_baseline(
    *,
    backtest: bool = False,
    cutoff_at: datetime | None = None,
-) -> dict:
+) -> PredictResult:
    """极简基线预测:主场场均进球 vs 客场场均进球。

-    返回与 PredictResult 兼容的字典:
+    返回 PredictResult(D2 统一结果类型):
      provider=model="baseline", 不调用 LLM,latency_ms≈0。
+    prediction_id 为占位 0 —— baseline 不在服务层落库,
+    由路由层 _persist_baseline 落库后取得真实 id。
    """
    async with AsyncSessionLocal() as db:
        match = await db.get(Match, match_id)
@@ -90,24 +93,26 @@ async def predict_baseline(
    else:
        pred_1x2 = "X"

-    return {
-        "pred_home_goals": float(pred_home),
-        "pred_away_goals": float(pred_away),
-        "alt_pred_home_goals": None,
-        "alt_pred_away_goals": None,
-        "pred_1x2": pred_1x2,
-        "subjective_confidence": 0.5,
-        "prompt_tokens": 0,
-        "completion_tokens": 0,
-        "reasoning": (
+    return PredictResult(
+        prediction_id=0,  # 占位:真实 id 由路由层 _persist_baseline 落库后返回
+        provider="baseline",
+        model="baseline",
+        prompt_version="baseline_v1",
+        mode="baseline",
+        pred_home_goals=float(pred_home),
+        pred_away_goals=float(pred_away),
+        alt_pred_home_goals=None,
+        alt_pred_away_goals=None,
+        pred_1x2=pred_1x2,
+        subjective_confidence=0.5,
+        reasoning=(
            f"基线估计(非投注建议): 主队主场场均进球 {home_avg:.2f} → 预测 {pred_home}; "
            f"客队客场场均进球 {away_avg:.2f} → 预测 {pred_away}。"
        ),
-        "provider": "baseline",
-        "model": "baseline",
-        "prompt_version": "baseline_v1",
-        "mode": "baseline",
-        "status": "success",
-        "latency_ms": 0,
-        "raw": {"home_avg": round(home_avg, 2), "away_avg": round(away_avg, 2)},
-    }
+        context="",  # baseline 不构建 LLM 上下文
+        status="success",
+        latency_ms=0,
+        prompt_tokens=0,
+        completion_tokens=0,
+        raw={"home_avg": round(home_avg, 2), "away_avg": round(away_avg, 2)},
+    )
@@ -89,6 +89,14 @@ def _prompt_template_hash(version: str) -> str:

@dataclass
 class PredictResult:
+    """三种预测模式(single/multi/baseline)的统一结果类型。
+
+    D2(工程债): 原本 single 返回本类、multi 重复定义 MultiPredictResult、
+    baseline 返回裸 dict,导致路由 isinstance(dict) 双分支 + backtest 对
+    baseline 直接 AttributeError。现以可选字段扩展本类承载全部模式;
+    MultiPredictResult 是本类的别名(见 src/llm/agents/orchestrator.py)。
+    """
+
    prediction_id: int
    provider: str
    model: str
@@ -101,8 +109,15 @@ class PredictResult:
    subjective_confidence: float | None
    reasoning: str | None
    context: str
+    # 模式标识: single(默认) / multi / baseline
+    mode: str = "single"
+    # multi 专属: 各专家报告列表与融合权重;single/baseline 为 None
+    agent_outputs: list[dict] | None = None
+    agent_weights: dict | None = None
    status: str = "success"
    latency_ms: int | None = None
+    prompt_tokens: int | None = None
+    completion_tokens: int | None = None
    raw: dict | None = None


@@ -158,9 +173,11 @@ async def predict_match(
    use_cache: bool = True,
    backtest: bool = False,
    cutoff_at=None,
-) -> "PredictResult | MultiPredictResult":
+) -> PredictResult:
    """预测入口。mode=multi(默认)走多 agent;mode=single 走单次调用;mode=baseline 走无 LLM 基线。

+    三种模式统一返回 PredictResult(D2);multi 的 MultiPredictResult 是其别名。
+
    Args:
        mode: multi(默认,5 专家+终裁) / single(单次) / baseline(极简统计基线,不调用 LLM)。
        use_cache:是否允许返回进程内缓存结果。回测必须传 False——
@@ -81,18 +81,18 @@ async def test_predict_baseline_no_llm():

        result = await predict_baseline(1)

-    assert result["provider"] == "baseline"
-    assert result["model"] == "baseline"
-    assert result["mode"] == "baseline"
-    assert result["latency_ms"] == 0
-    assert result["prompt_tokens"] == 0
-    assert result["completion_tokens"] == 0
+    assert result.provider == "baseline"
+    assert result.model == "baseline"
+    assert result.mode == "baseline"
+    assert result.latency_ms == 0
+    assert result.prompt_tokens == 0
+    assert result.completion_tokens == 0
    # 2.4 → round = 2, 1.6 → round = 2 → 平局 X
-    assert result["pred_home_goals"] == 2.0
-    assert result["pred_away_goals"] == 2.0
-    assert result["pred_1x2"] == "X"
-    assert result["subjective_confidence"] == 0.5
-    assert "非投注建议" in result["reasoning"]
+    assert result.pred_home_goals == 2.0
+    assert result.pred_away_goals == 2.0
+    assert result.pred_1x2 == "X"
+    assert result.subjective_confidence == 0.5
+    assert "非投注建议" in result.reasoning
    # 确认未调用任何 LLM 相关模块
    assert "home_10" in captured and "away_20" in captured

@@ -125,6 +125,6 @@ async def test_predict_baseline_clamps_to_range():

        result = await predict_baseline(2)

-    assert result["pred_home_goals"] == 10.0  # clamped
-    assert result["pred_away_goals"] == 0.0   # clamped
-    assert result["pred_1x2"] == "1"         # 10:0 主胜
+    assert result.pred_home_goals == 10.0  # clamped
+    assert result.pred_away_goals == 0.0   # clamped
+    assert result.pred_1x2 == "1"         # 10:0 主胜
@@ -0,0 +1,216 @@
+"""D2 工程债回归测试: 统一预测结果类型。
+
+背景: predict_match 三条路径返回类型不一 —— single 返回 PredictResult,
+multi 返回字段重复定义的 MultiPredictResult dataclass,baseline 返回裸 dict。
+后果: (1) 预测路由 PredictOut 映射被迫写 isinstance(result, dict) 双分支;
+(2) backtest 对 baseline 模式直接 AttributeError(dict 没有 .prediction_id,
+潜伏 bug);(3) 字段清单在两处 dataclass 重复维护,加字段必漏一处。
+
+统一方案: 扩展 PredictResult(可选字段)承载全部模式;
+MultiPredictResult 变为其别名(保留 orchestrator 签名标记,兼容 re-export);
+baseline 返回 PredictResult;路由单一字段映射。
+
+本测试守护四件事:
+  1. predict_baseline 返回 PredictResult(属性访问)
+  2. MultiPredictResult 与 PredictResult 兼容(orchestrator 构造调用的
+     全字段 kwargs 可直接构造别名)
+  3. 预测路由不再有 isinstance(result, dict) 分支(源码守卫,仿 R4 范式)
+  4. _persist_baseline 用属性访问构造 upsert values(baseline 落库语义不变)
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from pathlib import Path
+from types import SimpleNamespace
+
+import pytest
+
+from src.llm.baseline import predict_baseline
+from src.llm.predict import PredictResult
+from src.llm.agents import MultiPredictResult
+
+ROUTE_PATH = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1] / "src" / "api" / "routes" / "predict.py"
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 1. baseline 返回 PredictResult
+# ============================================================
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_predict_baseline_returns_predict_result():
+    """基线预测返回 PredictResult 实例,mode=baseline,token/延迟为 0。"""
+    from unittest.mock import patch
+
+    async def fake_avg(db, *, team_id, side, league_id, before):
+        return 2.4 if side == "home" else 1.6
+
+    class FakeMatch:
+        id = 1
+        home_team_id = 10
+        away_team_id = 20
+        league_id = 1
+        match_status = "scheduled"
+
+    class FakeSession:
+        async def get(self, cls, mid):
+            return FakeMatch()
+
+    class FakeCM:
+        async def __aenter__(self):
+            return FakeSession()
+
+        async def __aexit__(self, *a):
+            return None
+
+    with patch("src.llm.baseline._avg_goals", fake_avg), \
+         patch("src.llm.baseline.AsyncSessionLocal") as SLC:
+        SLC.return_value = FakeCM()
+
+        result = await predict_baseline(1)
+
+    assert isinstance(result, PredictResult)
+    assert result.mode == "baseline"
+    assert result.provider == "baseline"
+    assert result.model == "baseline"
+    assert result.prompt_version == "baseline_v1"
+    assert result.pred_home_goals == 2.0
+    assert result.pred_away_goals == 2.0
+    assert result.pred_1x2 == "X"
+    assert result.subjective_confidence == 0.5
+    assert result.prompt_tokens == 0
+    assert result.completion_tokens == 0
+    assert result.latency_ms == 0
+    assert result.status == "success"
+    assert "非投注建议" in (result.reasoning or "")
+    # baseline 不构建 LLM 上下文,但字段必须存在且可安全序列化
+    assert result.context == ""
+    # 原始统计快照保留在 raw 中
+    assert result.raw is not None
+    assert "home_avg" in result.raw
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 2. MultiPredictResult 与扩展后的 PredictResult 兼容
+# ============================================================
+
+
+def test_multi_predict_result_is_predict_result_alias():
+    """multi 结果不再是重复定义的 dataclass,而是扩展 PredictResult 的别名。"""
+    assert MultiPredictResult is PredictResult
+
+
+def test_multi_result_constructor_kwargs_still_supported():
+    """orchestrator 现有构造调用的全部字段 kwargs 必须仍可构造(别名完整性)。"""
+    # 与 orchestrator.predict_match_multi 的 return MultiPredictResult(...) 逐一对应
+    result = MultiPredictResult(
+        prediction_id=1,
+        provider="openai",
+        model="gpt-x",
+        prompt_version="multi_v1",
+        mode="multi",
+        pred_home_goals=2.0,
+        pred_away_goals=1.0,
+        alt_pred_home_goals=None,
+        alt_pred_away_goals=None,
+        pred_1x2="1",
+        subjective_confidence=0.7,
+        reasoning="r",
+        status="success",
+        agent_outputs=[{"agent": "form"}],
+        agent_weights={"form": 0.2},
+        context="ctx",
+        latency_ms=100,
+        prompt_tokens=10,
+        completion_tokens=5,
+        raw={"final": True},
+    )
+    assert result.mode == "multi"
+    assert result.agent_outputs == [{"agent": "form"}]
+    assert result.agent_weights == {"form": 0.2}
+    assert result.prompt_tokens == 10
+    assert result.completion_tokens == 5
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 3. 路由去 dict 分支(源码守卫)
+# ============================================================
+
+
+def test_predict_route_has_no_dict_branch():
+    """PredictOut 映射必须统一走属性访问,禁止 isinstance(result, dict) 回潮。"""
+    src = ROUTE_PATH.read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+    assert "isinstance(result, dict)" not in src
+    assert ".get(\"pred_home_goals\")" not in src
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 4. _persist_baseline 属性映射(baseline 落库语义不变)
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class _FakeUoW:
+    """替代 get_uow 的最小上下文管理器。"""
+
+    def __init__(self):
+        self.session = SimpleNamespace()
+
+    async def __aenter__(self):
+        return self.session
+
+    async def __aexit__(self, *a):
+        return None
+
+
+@pytest.mark.asyncio
+async def test_persist_baseline_maps_attributes(monkeypatch):
+    captured = {}
+
+    async def fake_upsert(session, **kwargs):
+        captured.update(kwargs)
+        return SimpleNamespace(id=77)
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr("src.db.unit_of_work.get_uow", lambda: _FakeUoW())
+    monkeypatch.setattr("src.llm.predict._upsert_prediction", fake_upsert)
+
+    from src.api.routes.predict import _persist_baseline
+
+    baseline = PredictResult(
+        prediction_id=0,  # baseline 不在服务层落库,由 _persist_baseline 落库后取得真实 id
+        provider="baseline",
+        model="baseline",
+        prompt_version="baseline_v1",
+        mode="baseline",
+        pred_home_goals=2.0,
+        pred_away_goals=1.0,
+        alt_pred_home_goals=None,
+        alt_pred_away_goals=None,
+        pred_1x2="1",
+        subjective_confidence=0.5,
+        reasoning="r",
+        context="",
+        status="success",
+        latency_ms=0,
+        prompt_tokens=0,
+        completion_tokens=0,
+        raw={"home_avg": 2.1, "away_avg": 1.4},
+    )
+
+    pid = await _persist_baseline(1, baseline)
+
+    assert pid == 77
+    assert captured["match_id"] == 1
+    assert captured["provider_name"] == "baseline"
+    assert captured["model"] == "baseline"
+    assert captured["mode"] == "baseline"
+    assert captured["run_type"] == "live"
+    v = captured["values"]
+    assert v["prompt_version"] == "baseline_v1"
+    assert v["pred_home_goals"] == 2.0
+    assert v["pred_away_goals"] == 1.0
+    assert v["pred_1x2"] == "1"
+    assert v["subjective_confidence"] == 0.5
+    assert v["prompt_tokens"] == 0
+    assert v["completion_tokens"] == 0
+    assert v["latency_ms"] == 0
+    assert v["raw_response"] == {"home_avg": 2.1, "away_avg": 1.4}
+    assert v["status"] == "success"
@@ -0,0 +1,259 @@
+"""D1 工程债回归测试: events 成功路径必须写 Bronze 层(RawEvent + DataLineage)。
+
+背景: stats 回填管线早已有 RawEvent/DataLineage 写入,但 events 管线(比赛
+主数据的唯一入口)成功插入/更新后既不留原始载荷,也不留血缘 —— 数据溯源
+链条在最关键的一环断掉。本测试守护:
+  1. 插入新比赛 → RawEvent(幂等键=source_event_id 或合成键) + Lineage
+     (target_table="matches", transform_name="events_ingest")
+  2. 变更更新(如补比分/状态) → 同样写血缘
+  3. 无变化跳过 → 不写(避免 lineage 刷屏)
+  4. RawEvent 幂等: 同 source_record_id 已存在则跳过
+  5. 基础设施写入失败 → 只 warning,不拖垮采集主流程
+
+范式: 假 db(按查询实体分发预置数据 + 记录 add,flush 分配自增 id)
+ monkeypatch 抓取函数,不依赖真实数据库。
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+from datetime import date, datetime, timezone
+
+import pytest
+
+import src.data.bzzoiro as bz
+from src.db.models import DataLineage, League, Match, RawEvent, Team
+
+
+def _event(eid=1001, status="finished", home="Arsenal", away="Chelsea", hs=2, as_=1):
+    """构造一条最小合法的 bzzoiro /events/ 原始载荷。"""
+    raw = {
+        "event_date": "2026-09-20 15:00:00",
+        "status": status,
+        "home_team": home,
+        "away_team": away,
+        "home_score": hs,
+        "away_score": as_,
+    }
+    if eid is not None:
+        raw["id"] = eid
+    return raw
+
+
+class _FakeResult:
+    """支持 .scalars().all() / .scalar_one_or_none() 的最小假结果集。"""
+
+    def __init__(self, items):
+        self._items = list(items)
+
+    def scalars(self):
+        return self
+
+    def __iter__(self):
+        return iter(self._items)
+
+    def all(self):
+        return self._items
+
+    def scalar_one_or_none(self):
+        return self._items[0] if self._items else None
+
+    def scalar(self):
+        return None
+
+
+class _FakeDB:
+    """按查询实体分发预置数据;记录 add();flush 为无 id 对象分配自增主键。"""
+
+    def __init__(self, matches=(), teams=(), leagues=(), raw_events=()):
+        self.added = []
+        self._by_entity = {
+            Match: list(matches),
+            Team: list(teams),
+            League: list(leagues),
+            RawEvent: list(raw_events),
+        }
+        self._next_id = 0
+
+    def add(self, obj):
+        self.added.append(obj)
+
+    async def execute(self, stmt):
+        entities = set()
+        for d in (stmt.column_descriptions or []):
+            entities.add(d.get("entity") or d.get("type"))
+        for entity, items in self._by_entity.items():
+            if entity in entities:
+                return _FakeResult(items)
+        return _FakeResult([])
+
+    async def flush(self):
+        for obj in self.added:
+            if getattr(obj, "id", None) is None:
+                self._next_id += 1
+                obj.id = self._next_id
+
+
+@pytest.fixture(autouse=True)
+def _no_request_interval(monkeypatch):
+    monkeypatch.setattr(bz, "REQUEST_INTERVAL", 0)
+
+
+def _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, events):
+    async def _fetch(league_code, **kwargs):
+        return list(events)
+
+    monkeypatch.setattr(bz, "fetch_bzzoiro_events", _fetch)
+
+
+def _matches(db):
+    return [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, Match)]
+
+
+def _raw_events(db):
+    return [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, RawEvent)]
+
+
+def _lineages(db):
+    return [o for o in db.added if isinstance(o, DataLineage)]
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 1. 插入新比赛 → RawEvent + DataLineage
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class TestEventsBronzeOnInsert:
+    async def test_insert_writes_raw_event_and_lineage(self, monkeypatch):
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, [_event()])
+        db = _FakeDB()
+
+        result = await bz.BzzoiroSource().ingest(db, leagues=["E0"])
+
+        assert result["total_inserted"] == 1
+
+        raws = _raw_events(db)
+        assert len(raws) == 1
+        raw = raws[0]
+        assert raw.source_system == "bzzoiro"
+        assert raw.source_record_id == "1001"  # 有上游 id 时直接用
+        assert raw.ingest_batch_id.startswith("bzzoiro-events-E0-")
+        assert raw.raw_payload["id"] == 1001  # 原始载荷完整保留
+
+        lineages = _lineages(db)
+        assert len(lineages) == 1
+        lin = lineages[0]
+        assert lin.source_system == "bzzoiro"
+        assert lin.source_record_id == "1001"
+        assert lin.target_table == "matches"
+        assert lin.target_id == _matches(db)[0].id
+        assert lin.transform_name == "events_ingest"
+        # RawEvent 与 Lineage 同批次,便于按批追溯
+        assert lin.batch_id == raw.ingest_batch_id
+
+    async def test_missing_source_id_uses_synthetic_stable_key(self, monkeypatch):
+        """上游 id 缺失时,用 (league:home:away:date) 合成稳定幂等键。"""
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, [_event(eid=None)])
+        db = _FakeDB()
+
+        result = await bz.BzzoiroSource().ingest(db, leagues=["E0"])
+
+        assert result["total_inserted"] == 1
+        raws = _raw_events(db)
+        assert len(raws) == 1
+        # 期望键基于 normalize 后的队名与天级日期 —— 与 _match_key 同口径,
+        # 不依赖 DB 自增 id,跨批次可复现
+        nm = bz.normalize_bzzoiro(_event(eid=None), "E0")
+        expected = f"E0:{nm.home_team}:{nm.away_team}:{nm.date.date().isoformat()}"
+        assert raws[0].source_record_id == expected
+
+    async def test_existing_raw_event_is_skipped(self, monkeypatch):
+        """RawEvent 幂等: 同 source_record_id 已存在则不再新增,但血缘照写。"""
+        existing = RawEvent(
+            source_system="bzzoiro",
+            source_record_id="1001",
+            raw_payload={"old": True},
+        )
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, [_event()])
+        db = _FakeDB(raw_events=[existing])
+
+        await bz.BzzoiroSource().ingest(db, leagues=["E0"])
+
+        new_raws = [r for r in _raw_events(db) if r is not existing]
+        assert new_raws == []
+        assert len(_lineages(db)) == 1  # 血缘仍然记录本次采集
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 2. 变更更新 → 写血缘;无变化 → 不写
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class TestEventsBronzeOnUpdate:
+    def _existing_match(self, **overrides):
+        m = Match(
+            league_id=1,
+            home_team_id=2,  # 与本轮 Team 创建后 fake 自增 id 对齐(league=1, home=2, away=3)
+            away_team_id=3,
+            match_date=datetime(2026, 9, 20, 15, 0, tzinfo=timezone.utc),
+            match_date_date=date(2026, 9, 20),
+            match_status="scheduled",
+            source_event_id=1001,
+        )
+        m.id = 42
+        for k, v in overrides.items():
+            setattr(m, k, v)
+        return m
+
+    async def test_changed_update_writes_lineage(self, monkeypatch):
+        # 已有比赛处于 scheduled 且无比分;新载荷为 finished 2:1 → 触发变更更新
+        db = _FakeDB(matches=[self._existing_match()])
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, [_event()])
+
+        result = await bz.BzzoiroSource().ingest(db, leagues=["E0"])
+
+        assert result["total_inserted"] == 0
+        assert result["leagues"]["E0"]["updated"] == 1
+
+        lineages = _lineages(db)
+        assert len(lineages) == 1
+        assert lineages[0].target_id == 42
+        assert lineages[0].target_table == "matches"
+        assert lineages[0].transform_name == "events_ingest"
+
+    async def test_unchanged_match_writes_nothing(self, monkeypatch):
+        # 已有比赛与新载荷完全一致 → 无变化,不应产生 RawEvent/Lineage
+        existing = self._existing_match(
+            match_status="finished",
+            home_goals=2,
+            away_goals=1,
+        )
+        db = _FakeDB(matches=[existing])
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, [_event()])
+
+        result = await bz.BzzoiroSource().ingest(db, leagues=["E0"])
+
+        assert result["total_inserted"] == 0
+        assert result["leagues"]["E0"]["updated"] == 0
+        assert _raw_events(db) == []
+        assert _lineages(db) == []
+
+
+# ============================================================
+# 3. 基础设施写入失败: 尽力而为,不拖垮主流程
+# ============================================================
+
+
+class TestEventsBronzeIsBestEffort:
+    async def test_bronze_write_failure_does_not_break_ingest(self, monkeypatch):
+        async def _boom(*args, **kwargs):
+            raise RuntimeError("infra down")
+
+        monkeypatch.setattr(bz, "_write_raw_event", _boom)
+        monkeypatch.setattr(bz, "_write_lineage", _boom)
+        _patch_fetch(monkeypatch, [_event()])
+        db = _FakeDB()
+
+        # 不应抛异常:Bronze 写不进去只记 warning
+        result = await bz.BzzoiroSource().ingest(db, leagues=["E0"])
+
+        assert result["total_inserted"] == 1
+        assert len(_matches(db)) == 1