fix(P0-03): Prediction 幂等指纹——只追加,不覆盖

_upsert_prediction 改为 _insert_or_find_by_fingerprint:
- 同 input_hash → 返回已有行(绝不 UPDATE pred_/reasoning/agent_outputs)
- 不同 input_hash → INSERT 新行

input_hash 升级为规范 JSON SHA-256,捕获:match_id, cutoff, prompt_version,
prompt_hash, system_prompt_hash, provider, model, mode, run_type, temperature,
context_hash, agent_ids。移除旧 (match, provider, model, mode, run_type) 唯一约束,
改为 partial unique index(WHERE input_hash IS NOT NULL,兼容旧 NULL 数据)。

三条路径(single/multi/baseline)统一传足指纹字段。
迁移 0024 + 测试 test_p0_prediction_fingerprint(10/10);全量 295 通过。

.claude/settings.local.json

@@ -0,0 +1,43 @@
+{
+  "permissions": {
+    "allow": [
+      "Bash(python -m pytest tests/ -v)",
+      "Bash(python -c \"import src.core.http_client; import src.llm.provider; import src.data.understat; import src.data.injuries; import src.llm.agents.orchestrator; import src.llm.context_builder; import src.api.app; print\\('All imports OK'\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -c \"from src.data.sources import get_source, list_sources; print\\('sources:', list_sources\\(\\)\\); print\\('bzzoiro:', get_source\\('bzzoiro'\\).name\\); print\\('understat:', get_source\\('understat'\\).name\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -c \"from src.api.routes.ingest import router; print\\('ingest router OK:', len\\(router.routes\\), 'routes'\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -c ' *)",
+      "Bash(python -m pytest tests/ -q)",
+      "Bash(git -C /p rev-parse --git-dir)",
+      "Bash(git config *)",
+      "Bash(git init *)",
+      "Bash(git add *)",
+      "Bash(git commit -m 'feat: 足球 LLM 预测服务初始提交 *)",
+      "Bash(git remote *)",
+      "Bash(git push *)",
+      "Bash(git fetch *)",
+      "Bash(git branch *)",
+      "Bash(git commit *)",
+      "Bash(pg_isready -h localhost -p 5432)",
+      "Bash(python -c \"import pytest_asyncio; print\\('pytest-asyncio OK'\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -c \"import pytest; print\\('pytest', pytest.__version__\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -c \"import aiosqlite; print\\('aiosqlite', aiosqlite.__version__\\)\")",
+      "Bash(npm run *)",
+      "Bash(npm install *)",
+      "Bash(git revert *)",
+      "Bash(python -c \"from src.api.app import app; print\\('OK'\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -m pytest tests/test_agents.py::TestReportParsing::test_parse_bad_values_forgiving -v)",
+      "Bash(python -c \"from src.data.bzzoiro import BzzoiroSource; print\\('OK'\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -m pytest tests/test_agents.py::TestReportParsing::test_parse_full_report -v)",
+      "Bash(python -c \"from src.db.unit_of_work import UnitOfWork, get_uow; from src.db.repositories import MatchRepository, TeamRepository; print\\('OK'\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -c \"from src.data.bzzoiro import BzzoiroSource; from src.data.understat import UnderstatSource; from src.data.injuries import ingest_injuries; print\\('OK'\\)\")",
+      "Bash(python -m compileall src tests)",
+      "Bash(alembic current *)",
+      "Bash(alembic history *)",
+      "Bash(python -c \"from src.db.models import MatchStats, Prediction; print\\('Models OK'\\)\")",
+      "Bash(git pull *)",
+      "Bash(ocr delegate *)",
+      "Bash(npm i *)",
+      "Bash(python -c \"from src.llm.validation import KNOWN_AGENT_NAMES; print\\(KNOWN_AGENT_NAMES\\)\")"
+    ]
+  }
+}

.dockerignore

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
+# Python
+__pycache__
+*.py[cod]
+*$py.class
+*.egg-info
+dist
+build
+
+# 虚拟环境
+.venv
+venv
+
+# 环境配置(含敏感信息,绝不能打入镜像)
+.env
+.env.*
+
+# 测试与工具
+tests
+.pytest_cache
+.mypy_cache
+.ruff_cache
+
+# IDE
+.idea
+.vscode
+
+# Git
+.git
+.gitignore
+
+# 文档(运行时不需要)
+docs
+*.md
+LICENSE*
+.dockerignore
+docker-compose.yml
+nginx.conf

.env.example

@@ -1,8 +1,30 @@
 # ---- 应用 ----
+# 运行环境: development | production
+# production 启动时会强制校验:SECRET_KEY 非空且非弱值、鉴权已配置、DB 弱密码阻断。
 APP_ENV=development
 LOG_LEVEL=INFO
+API_PORT=8000
+FRONTEND_PORT=3000
+
+# ---- 生产环境启动必填(缺少则拒绝启动) ----
+# 1. SECRET_KEY: 加密主密钥与会话签名根密钥。
+#    生成: openssl rand -base64 32
+#    严禁使用 changeme/secret/123456 等弱值;变更后已加密配置无法解密。
+SECRET_KEY=
+
+# 2. 管理鉴权(至少一项):
+#    - ADMIN_PASSWORD: 后台登录初始密码(启动后自动 scrypt 哈希入库,之后在「系统配置」页修改)
+#    - ADMIN_API_KEY: 脚本直连接口用的密钥(请求头 X-API-Key)
+#    两者都留空 = 不启用鉴权(仅本地开发)。
+ADMIN_PASSWORD=
+ADMIN_API_KEY=
 
 # ---- 数据库 ----
+POSTGRES_USER=football
+POSTGRES_PASSWORD=football
+POSTGRES_DB=football
+POSTGRES_PORT=5433
+# 本地开发用 localhost;Docker Compose 内会被 environment 覆盖为 postgres 服务名
 DATABASE_URL=postgresql+asyncpg://football:football@localhost:5432/football
 
 # ---- LLM (OpenAI-compatible,必填一个) ----
@@ -10,10 +32,30 @@ LLM_PROVIDER=openai
 LLM_API_KEY=sk-xxxx
 LLM_BASE_URL=https://api.openai.com/v1
 LLM_MODEL=gpt-4o
+# 多 Agent 分档模型(留空则回落 LLM_MODEL)
+LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL=
+LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL=
+# 单次 LLM 调用超时(秒)
+LLM_TIMEOUT=60
 
 # ---- 数据源 ----
 BZZOIRO_KEY=
-API_FOOTBALL_KEY=
 
 # ---- CORS ----
 CORS_ORIGINS=http://localhost:5173,http://localhost:3000
+
+# ---- 加密主密钥 ----
+# 敏感配置(数据源/LLM API Key)入库加密与会话签名均由它派生。
+# 只存部署机 .env,切勿入库或提交;生成: openssl rand -base64 32
+# 变更后已加密配置无法解密,需在后台重新保存。
+SECRET_KEY=
+
+# ---- 管理接口鉴权 ----
+# 管理后台登录密码(/admin 页面与采集/回测/回填等管理接口)。
+# 此处为初始值:启动时自动迁移为 scrypt 哈希入库,迁移后本行可删除。
+# 之后请在后台「系统配置」页修改密码。留空 = 不启用密码登录(本地开发默认)。
+ADMIN_PASSWORD=
+# 管理接口会话有效期(小时),默认 7 天
+ADMIN_SESSION_TTL_HOURS=168
+# 备选: 机器/脚本直接调接口用的密钥(请求头 X-API-Key),与密码二选一即可
+ADMIN_API_KEY=

.gitignore

@@ -5,3 +5,12 @@ __pycache__/
 .pytest_cache/
 frontend/node_modules/
 frontend/dist/
+
+# AI 助手上下文文件(不入库)
+CLAUDE.md
+docs/AGENTS.md
+docs/agents/
+
+# 本地审查/预览脚手架(不入库)
+.tools/
+.preview/

.zcodeignore

@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+__pycache__/
+*.pyc
+.env
+.venv/
+.pytest_cache/
+frontend/node_modules/
+frontend/dist/
+
+# AI 助手上下文文件(不入库)
+CLAUDE.md
+docs/AGENTS.md
+docs/agents/
+
+# 本地审查/预览脚手架(不入库)
+.tools/
+.preview/
+
+# ===== ↑ 以上同步自 .gitignore（「从 .gitignore 同步」只重写以上部分）=====
+.git/
+.hg/
+.svn/
+node_modules/
+bower_components/
+jspm_packages/
+site-packages/
+venv/
+coverage/
+htmlcov/
+lcov-report/
+cmakefiles/
+cmake-build-*/
+bazel-*/
+pods/
+deriveddata/
+storybook-static/
+playwright-report/
+test-results/
+allure-results/
+allure-report/
+cdk.out/
+*.egg-info/
+*.dist-info/
+eggs/
+pip-wheel-metadata/
+wheels/
+# ----- ↑ 以上为 ZCode 默认排除规则（自定义规则请写在本行下方，不会被同步/恢复改动）-----
+# 自定义规则写在下方（本行提示可删除）

CLAUDE.md

@@ -1,43 +0,0 @@
-# Profeto — 先知
-
-足球 LLM 预测服务。
-
-## 多 Agent 协同
-
-本项目采用 4 Agent 协同模式。详见 `docs/AGENTS.md`。
-
-| Agent | 所有权 | 上下文文件 |
-|---|---|---|
-| 🗄️ DBA (数据库) | `src/db/`, `alembic/`, 数据模型 | `docs/agents/dba.md` |
-| 🖥️ FE (前端) | `frontend/` | `docs/agents/fe.md` |
-| ⚙️ BE (后端) | `src/api/`, `src/core/`, `src/llm/`, `src/data/` | `docs/agents/be.md` |
-| 🚀 Ops (部署) | `Dockerfile`, `docker-compose.yml`, 配置 | `docs/agents/ops.md` |
-
-## 技术栈
-
-- **后端**: Python 3.11+, FastAPI, SQLAlchemy async, PostgreSQL
-- **前端**: React, TypeScript, Vite, Tailwind CSS
-- **LLM**: OpenAI-compatible (OpenAI / Deepseek / Ollama)
-- **数据源**: bzzoiro, understat, api-football
-
-## 常用命令
-
-```bash
-# 后端
-uvicorn src.api.app:app --reload        # 启动 API
-pytest                                   # 测试
-alembic upgrade head                     # 数据库迁移
-
-# 前端
-cd frontend && npm run dev               # 开发
-cd frontend && npm run build             # 构建
-
-# 部署
-docker compose up -d                     # 启动全部服务
-```
-
-## 协作原则
-
-- 每个 Agent 在自己的所有权范围内工作
-- 跨 Agent 变更通过接口契约协调（REST API / ORM 模型 / docker-compose）
-- 修改接口前通知相关 Agent

Dockerfile

@@ -2,12 +2,26 @@ FROM python:3.11-slim
 
 WORKDIR /app
 
-RUN pip install --no-cache-dir hatchling
-COPY pyproject.toml README.md ./
-COPY src ./src
+# 直连官方源不稳定,固定使用清华 PyPI 镜像
+ENV PIP_INDEX_URL=https://pypi.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn/simple
 
+# P2-5: 创建非 root 用户(容器安全最佳实践)
+RUN groupadd --system profeto && useradd --system --gid profeto profeto
+
+# 可复现构建:先安装锁定版本的依赖(含哈希校验),再安装本项目
+COPY pyproject.toml requirements.txt ./
+RUN pip install --no-cache-dir -r requirements.txt
+
+COPY src ./src
 RUN pip install --no-cache-dir .
 
+# 将工作目录所有权移交给非 root 用户
+RUN chown -R profeto:profeto /app
+
 EXPOSE 8000
 
-CMD ["uvicorn", "src.api.app:app", "--host", "0.0.0.0", "--port", "8000"]
+# 以非 root 用户运行
+USER profeto
+
+# 启动时先跑迁移,再启 uvicorn
+CMD ["sh", "-c", "alembic upgrade head && uvicorn src.api.app:app --host 0.0.0.0 --port 8000"]

README.md

@@ -12,30 +12,43 @@
                        │ REST API
 ┌──────────────────────▼──────────────────────────────┐
 │  FastAPI                                            │
-│  ├── /api/v1/matches     比赛查询                   │
+│  ├── /api/v1/matches     比赛查询(公开只读)          │
 │  ├── /api/v1/predict     LLM 预测 (单/多 Agent)     │
-│  ├── /api/v1/ingest/*    数据采集                   │
-│  └── /api/v1/eval/*      评估回填                   │
+│  ├── /api/v1/ingest/*    数据采集(需管理员)          │
+│  ├── /api/v1/eval/*      评估回填(需管理员)          │
+│  └── /api/v1/backtest    回测(需管理员)              │
 └──────────┬─────────────────────────────┬────────────┘
            │                             │
 ┌──────────▼──────────┐    ┌─────────────▼────────────┐
 │  PostgreSQL         │    │  LLM (OpenAI-compatible)  │
-│  5 张表             │    │  OpenAI / Deepseek /      │
+│  12 张表            │    │  OpenAI / Deepseek /      │
 │  leagues/teams/     │    │  Ollama / 任意网关        │
 │  matches/match_     │    └──────────────────────────┘
-│  stats/predictions/ │
-│  injuries           │
+│  stats/standings/   │
+│  predictions/       │
+│  app_settings/      │
+│  schedules +        │
+│  raw_events 等 4 张 │
+│  数据治理表          │
 └─────────────────────┘
            ▲
            │ 采集
 ┌──────────┴─────────────────────────────────────────┐
 │  数据源 (DataSource 协议 + 注册表)                   │
-│  ├── bzzoiro    比分 / 统计 / xG                    │
-│  ├── understat  xG 回填                             │
-│  └── injuries   伤停数据 (api-football)             │
+│  └── bzzoiro    比分 / 赛程 / 统计 / 积分榜          │
 └────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
 ```
 
+### 分层架构
+
+```
+API Route → Application Service → Repository → UnitOfWork → DB
+```
+
+- **UnitOfWork**: 统一事务边界,业务层不再自行 commit
+- **Repository**: 封装数据访问,提供类型化查询接口
+- **DataSource**: 采集外部数据,通过注册表动态分发
+
 ### 多 Agent 预测
 
 默认模式 (`mode=multi`) 采用 **5 专家 + 终裁** 架构:
@@ -44,14 +57,20 @@
 比赛数据 → 切片 ─┬─→ A 近期状态专家 ─┐
                  ├─→ B 攻防数据专家 ─┤
                  ├─→ C 主客因素专家 ─┼─→ 终裁专家 ─→ 最终预测
-                 ├─→ D 阵容完整专家 ─┤
+                 ├─→ D 联赛排名专家 ─┤
                  └─→ E 历史交锋专家 ─┘
 ```
 
 - 各专家**只看到自己维度的数据切片**,避免信息过载
 - **fail-open**: 单个专家失败不影响整体
 - **no_data 门控**: 无数据维度跳过 LLM 调用,省 token 防幻觉
-- 终裁根据各报告的 `confidence` / `data_sufficiency` 加权输出 `agent_weights`
+- 终裁根据各报告的 `subjective_confidence` / `data_sufficiency` 输出 `agent_weights`
+
+### 数据正确性保障
+
+- **Cutoff 机制**: 回测时只使用 `cutoff_at` 之前已采集的数据(近况/交锋/统计/积分榜切片统一生效)
+- **LLM 输出校验**: Pydantic 严格校验 + 语义一致性检查
+- **数据库约束**: CHECK 约束作为最后一道防线
 
 ## 快速开始
 
@@ -61,91 +80,106 @@
 - Docker (运行 PostgreSQL)
 - LLM API Key (OpenAI / Deepseek / Ollama 等)
 
-### 1. 安装
+### 方式一:Docker Compose 部署(推荐)
 
 ```bash
-# 克隆
+# 1. 克隆仓库
 git clone https://git.bilidili.cn/shangfangjian/Profeto.git
 cd Profeto
 
-# 后端依赖
-pip install -e ".[dev]"
-
-# 配置环境变量
+# 2. 配置环境变量
 cp .env.example .env
 # 编辑 .env,填入 LLM_API_KEY 和 BZZOIRO_KEY
+
+# 3. 启动全部服务(自动构建 + 执行迁移)
+docker compose up -d --build
+
+# 4. 验证
+curl http://localhost:8000/health
 ```
 
-### 2. 启动数据库
+启动后访问:
+- API 文档: http://localhost:8000/docs
+- 前端界面: http://localhost:3000
+
+> **说明**: `api` 容器启动时自动执行 `alembic upgrade head`,无需手动运行迁移。
+
+### 方式二:本地开发部署
 
 ```bash
+# 1. 克隆 + 安装
+git clone https://git.bilidili.cn/shangfangjian/Profeto.git
+cd Profeto
+pip install -e ".[dev]"
+
+# 2. 配置环境变量
+cp .env.example .env
+# 编辑 .env,填入 LLM_API_KEY 和 BZZOIRO_KEY
+
+# 3. 启动 PostgreSQL
 docker compose up -d postgres
-```
 
-### 3. 启动服务
+# 4. 执行迁移
+alembic upgrade head
 
-```bash
-# 后端 (终端 1)
+# 5. 启动后端 (终端 1)
 uvicorn src.api.app:app --reload
 
-# 前端 (终端 2)
+# 6. 启动前端 (终端 2)
 cd frontend && npm install && npm run dev
 ```
 
 后端运行在 `http://localhost:8000`,前端在 `http://localhost:5173`。
 
-## 使用流程
+## 生产上线检查清单
 
-### 1. 采集数据
+公网部署前逐项确认(第 1–4 项由启动校验强制,不满足拒绝启动;详见 [docs/06-deployment.md](docs/06-deployment.md#生产上线检查清单)):
 
-```bash
-# 采集 bzzoiro 比分与统计
-curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro \
-  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-  -d '{"leagues":["E0","SP1"],"date_from":"2026-08-01","date_to":"2026-09-06"}'
+- [ ] `APP_ENV=production`(安全校验 / Cookie `Secure` / 管理端点 fail-closed 的总开关)
+- [ ] `SECRET_KEY` 强随机:`openssl rand -base64 32`,禁止弱值
+- [ ] `ADMIN_PASSWORD` 或 `ADMIN_API_KEY` 至少配置其一
+- [ ] 数据库强密码,禁止 `football:football` 等示例弱密码
+- [ ] HTTPS(反代终结 TLS;production 下会话 Cookie 自动 `Secure`)
+- [ ] 反代后设 `TRUST_PROXY_HEADERS=True`,仅可信反代可达 API,并配置 `X-Forwarded-For` / `X-Real-IP`
+- [ ] 限流前置到 Nginx `limit_req`;应用内限流与 KeyRing 仅单进程有效,多 worker 会放大配额
+- [ ] uvicorn 单 worker(默认);需扩容先网关统一限流再起多实例
+- [ ] 启动后验证 `/health` 与 `/health/ready` 均 200
+- [ ] 数据库迁移已内置:compose/Dockerfile 启动即执行 `alembic upgrade head`
 
-# 回填 understat xG
-curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/ingest/understat \
-  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-  -d '{"league":"E0","season":2026}'
+## 安全与限流
 
-# 采集伤停
-curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/ingest/injuries \
-  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-  -d '{"date":"2026-09-09"}'
-```
+- `/api/v1/predict`: 内存滑动窗口限流(10 次/分钟/IP),多 worker 时每进程独立计数
+- 登录防爆破: 进程内内存计数,同上
+- 公网部署建议 Nginx 层限流 + `TRUST_PROXY_HEADERS=True`
+- 生产环境必须配置 `ADMIN_PASSWORD` 或 `ADMIN_API_KEY`(否则管理接口 503)
 
-### 2. 查询比赛
+详见 [docs/06-deployment.md](docs/06-deployment.md#安全与限流)。
 
-```bash
-curl "http://localhost:8000/api/v1/matches?league=E0&status=scheduled"
-```
+## API 概览
 
-### 3. LLM 预测
+**公开只读**(无需登录;`predict` 带内存限流):
 
-```bash
-# 多 Agent 预测 (默认)
-curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/predict \
-  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-  -d '{"match_id": 1}'
+| 方法 | 路径 | 说明 |
+|---|---|---|
+| GET | `/api/v1/leagues` | 联赛列表(仅 id/code/name/country) |
+| GET | `/api/v1/matches` | 比赛查询(筛选/游标分页) |
+| GET | `/api/v1/matches/{id}` | 比赛详情(含统计与最近预测) |
+| GET | `/api/v1/matches/{id}/context` | 比赛上下文(双方近况 + 历史交锋) |
+| GET | `/api/v1/standings` | 联赛积分榜 |
+| POST | `/api/v1/predict` | LLM 预测 (`mode=single`/`multi`/`baseline`) |
+| GET | `/health`、`/health/ready` | 存活 / 就绪检查(含 DB) |
 
-# 单次调用模式
-curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/predict \
-  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-  -d '{"match_id": 1, "mode": "single"}'
-```
+**需管理员**(Cookie 会话或 `X-API-Key`):
 
-### 4. 评估
-
-```bash
-# 赛后回填实际比分
-curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/eval/settle \
-  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-  -d '{"prediction_id": 1, "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1}'
-
-# 查看准确率汇总
-curl http://localhost:8000/api/v1/eval/summary
-```
+| 方法 | 路径 | 说明 |
+|---|---|---|
+| POST | `/api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro` | 采集赛果/赛程/统计/积分榜 |
+| GET | `/api/v1/predictions` | 预测历史(列表) |
+| GET | `/api/v1/predictions/{id}` | 单条预测详情 |
+| POST | `/api/v1/eval/settle` | 回填实际结果 |
+| GET | `/api/v1/eval/summary` | 准确率汇总 |
+| POST | `/api/v1/backtest` | 历史回测 |
+| `/api/v1/admin/**` | 配置/采集状态/日志/定时任务/死信等 | 管理后台(router 级鉴权) |
 
 ## 项目结构
 
@@ -154,41 +188,58 @@ Profeto/
 ├── src/
 │   ├── api/                    # FastAPI 路由层
 │   │   ├── app.py              # 应用工厂 + lifespan
+│   │   ├── deps.py             # 依赖注入:鉴权 / 限流
 │   │   ├── schemas.py          # Pydantic 请求/响应模型
 │   │   └── routes/
-│   │       ├── matches.py      # 比赛查询
-│   │       ├── predict.py      # 预测入口
-│   │       ├── ingest.py       # 数据采集
-│   │       └── eval.py         # 评估回填
+│   │       ├── matches.py      # 比赛查询(公开只读)
+│   │       ├── predict.py      # 预测入口 + 预测历史
+│   │       ├── ingest.py       # 数据采集(需管理员)
+│   │       ├── eval.py         # 评估回填(需管理员)
+│   │       ├── backtest.py     # 回测(需管理员)
+│   │       ├── auth.py         # 登录/登出/改密
+│   │       ├── admin_settings.py  # /admin/** 配置/日志/数据质量(router 级鉴权)
+│   │       └── schedules.py    # 定时任务 + 死信重试(router 级鉴权)
 │   ├── core/                   # 基础设施
 │   │   ├── config.py           # pydantic-settings 配置
-│   │   └── http_client.py      # 共享 httpx 客户端
+│   │   ├── crypto.py           # 加密/哈希
+│   │   ├── http_client.py      # 共享 httpx 客户端
+│   │   ├── log_buffer.py       # 内存日志缓冲(admin 日志页)
+│   │   ├── runtime_config.py   # DB 配置覆盖(.env → app_settings)
+│   │   ├── scheduler.py        # 进程内 cron 调度器
+│   │   └── security_check.py   # 启动安全校验
 │   ├── data/                   # 数据层
 │   │   ├── sources.py          # DataSource 协议 + 注册表
-│   │   ├── match_lookup.py     # 比赛匹配辅助函数
+│   │   ├── bzzoiro.py          # bzzoiro 数据源(events/standings/stats)
 │   │   ├── normalize.py        # 数据规范化契约
-│   │   ├── bzzoiro.py          # bzzoiro 数据源
-│   │   ├── understat.py        # understat xG 数据源
-│   │   ├── injuries.py         # 伤停数据 (独立领域)
 │   │   ├── config.py           # 联赛映射常量
-│   │   └── team_names.py       # 队名归一化
+│   │   ├── key_ring.py         # API Key 轮换环(429 冷却)
+│   │   ├── team_names.py       # 队名归一化
+│   │   └── team_names_zh.py    # 队名中文映射
 │   ├── db/                     # 数据库
 │   │   ├── base.py             # SQLAlchemy async engine
-│   │   └── models.py           # ORM 模型 (5 表)
+│   │   ├── models.py           # ORM 模型 (12 表)
+│   │   ├── unit_of_work.py     # UnitOfWork 事务封装
+│   │   └── repositories.py     # Repository 数据访问
 │   └── llm/                    # LLM 预测核心
-│       ├── predict.py          # 预测服务 (缓存 + 单/多模式)
+│       ├── predict.py          # 预测服务 (缓存 + 单/多/基线模式)
 │       ├── context_builder.py  # 数据切片 + 上下文拼接
+│       ├── baseline.py         # 基线预测(均值模型)
 │       ├── eval.py             # 评估统计
+│       ├── backtest.py         # 回测框架
 │       ├── provider.py         # 多提供商 LLM 抽象
+│       ├── utils.py            # LLM 工具函数
+│       ├── validation.py       # LLM 输出校验
 │       ├── agents/
 │       │   ├── base.py         # Agent 基础设施 + 解析
 │       │   └── orchestrator.py # 多 Agent 编排
 │       └── prompts/            # Prompt 模板
-│           ├── match_prediction_v1.md
-│           ├── match_prediction_v2.md
-│           └── agents/         # 各专家 prompt
 ├── alembic/                    # 数据库迁移
 ├── frontend/                   # React 前端
+│   └── src/
+│       ├── pages/              # 公开站(赛程 Matches + 积分榜 Standings)
+│       ├── admin/              # 管理后台(布局/页面/数据访问层 dal.ts)
+│       ├── components/         # 共享组件
+│       └── lib/http.ts         # 唯一 HTTP 实现(带凭据/超时/错误处理)
 ├── docs/                       # 详细文档
 ├── tests/                      # 单元测试
 ├── docker-compose.yml
@@ -204,8 +255,10 @@ Profeto/
 | `prompts/` | Prompt 模板 (迭代最频繁) |
 | `provider.py` | OpenAI-compatible 多提供商抽象 |
 | `sources.py` | 数据源协议 + 注册表 |
-| `normalize.py` | 数据清洗契约 (校验/范围/归一) |
-| `orchestrator.py` | 多 Agent 编排 (并行专家 + 终裁) |
+| `unit_of_work.py` | 统一事务边界 |
+| `repositories.py` | 数据访问封装 |
+| `validation.py` | LLM 输出严格校验 |
+| `backtest.py` | 回测框架(防未来数据泄漏) |
 
 ## 配置
 
@@ -221,7 +274,6 @@ Profeto/
 | `LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL` | 专家模型 (空=回落 LLM_MODEL) | |
 | `LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL` | 终裁模型 (空=回落 LLM_MODEL) | |
 | `BZZOIRO_KEY` | bzzoiro API Key | *(必填)* |
-| `API_FOOTBALL_KEY` | api-football Key (伤停) | |
 | `CORS_ORIGINS` | 允许的跨域来源 | `http://localhost:5173` |
 
 ## 测试
@@ -232,8 +284,6 @@ pytest
 
 ## 数据库迁移
 
-生产环境建议使用 Alembic:
-
 ```bash
 alembic upgrade head
 ```

alembic/env.py

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ from logging.config import fileConfig
 import sys
 from pathlib import Path
 
-from sqlalchemy import engine_from_config, pool
+from sqlalchemy import engine_from_config, pool, text
 from alembic import context
 
 # 把项目根加入 pythonpath,让 alembic 能找到 src 包
@@ -29,6 +29,23 @@ if config.config_file_name is not None:
 target_metadata = Base.metadata
 
 
+def _ensure_version_table(connection):
+    """确保 alembic_version 表存在且 version_num 列足够长。
+
+    Alembic 默认 version_num 是 String(32),但我们的迁移名较长(如
+    0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance 有 41 个字符),会导致
+    StringDataRightTruncation 错误。
+    """
+    result = connection.execute(text(
+        "SELECT EXISTS (SELECT 1 FROM information_schema.tables WHERE table_name = 'alembic_version')"
+    ))
+    if not result.scalar():
+        connection.execute(text(
+            "CREATE TABLE alembic_version (version_num VARCHAR(255) NOT NULL PRIMARY KEY)"
+        ))
+        connection.commit()
+
+
 def run_migrations_offline() -> None:
     """Run migrations in 'offline' mode."""
     url = config.get_main_option("sqlalchemy.url")
@@ -52,6 +69,12 @@ def run_migrations_online() -> None:
     )
 
     with connectable.connect() as connection:
+        _ensure_version_table(connection)
+        # SQLAlchemy 2.0 autobegin:上面的探测 SELECT 会留下隐式事务。
+        # 若不结束,alembic(>=1.16)会判定处于「外部事务」而全程不提交,
+        # 迁移在连接关闭时被静默回滚(upgrade 退出码仍为 0)。
+        if connection.in_transaction():
+            connection.commit()
         context.configure(connection=connection, target_metadata=target_metadata)
 
         with context.begin_transaction():

alembic/versions/0004_snapshot_and_constraints.py

@@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
+"""add snapshot fields and check constraints
+
+Revision ID: 0004_snapshot_and_constraints
+Revises: 0003_injuries
+Create Date: 2026-09-15
+
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0004_snapshot_and_constraints'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0003_injuries'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 1. 重命名 confidence → subjective_confidence
+    op.alter_column('predictions', 'confidence', new_column_name='subjective_confidence')
+
+    # 2. 新增快照字段
+    op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('cutoff_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True))
+    op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('input_hash', sa.String(length=64), nullable=True))
+
+    # 3. 新增 CHECK 约束
+    #    注意: 对已有数据行加 CHECK 约束时,若存在越界数据 ALTER TABLE 会中途失败,
+    #    导致迁移卡在半完成状态。这里先做一次性清洗(把越界值收敛到合法域),
+    #    再建约束,保证在非空库上也能成功。
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET pred_home_goals = 0 WHERE pred_home_goals IS NOT NULL AND pred_home_goals < 0")
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET pred_away_goals = 0 WHERE pred_away_goals IS NOT NULL AND pred_away_goals < 0")
+    op.execute(
+        "UPDATE predictions SET subjective_confidence = "
+        "CASE WHEN subjective_confidence < 0 THEN 0 "
+        "     WHEN subjective_confidence > 1 THEN 1 ELSE subjective_confidence END "
+        "WHERE subjective_confidence IS NOT NULL "
+        "  AND (subjective_confidence < 0 OR subjective_confidence > 1)"
+    )
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET pred_1x2 = NULL WHERE pred_1x2 IS NOT NULL AND pred_1x2 NOT IN ('1', 'X', '2')")
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET mode = 'single' WHERE mode IS NOT NULL AND mode NOT IN ('single', 'multi')")
+
+    op.create_check_constraint('ck_pred_home_goals_nonneg', 'predictions', 'pred_home_goals >= 0')
+    op.create_check_constraint('ck_pred_away_goals_nonneg', 'predictions', 'pred_away_goals >= 0')
+    op.create_check_constraint('ck_confidence_range', 'predictions', 'subjective_confidence >= 0 AND subjective_confidence <= 1')
+    op.create_check_constraint('ck_pred_1x2_enum', 'predictions', "pred_1x2 IN ('1', 'X', '2')")
+    op.create_check_constraint('ck_mode_enum', 'predictions', "mode IN ('single', 'multi')")
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    # 1. 删除 CHECK 约束
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_mode_enum', 'predictions', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_pred_1x2_enum', 'predictions', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_confidence_range', 'predictions', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_pred_away_goals_nonneg', 'predictions', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_pred_home_goals_nonneg', 'predictions', type_='check')
+
+    # 2. 删除快照字段
+    op.drop_column('predictions', 'input_hash')
+    op.drop_column('predictions', 'cutoff_at')
+
+    # 3. 恢复列名
+    op.alter_column('predictions', 'subjective_confidence', new_column_name='confidence')

alembic/versions/0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance.py

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+"""add prediction status/time semantics and MatchStats provenance
+
+Revision ID: 0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance
+Revises: 0004_snapshot_and_constraints
+Create Date: 2026-09-15
+
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0004_snapshot_and_constraints'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 1. Prediction 新增字段
+    op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('status', sa.String(length=20), nullable=False, server_default='success'))
+    op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('match_kickoff_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True))
+    op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('prediction_created_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=False, server_default=sa.func.now()))
+    op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('prediction_cutoff_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True))
+
+    # 重命名 cutoff_at → 保留作为兼容,prediction_cutoff_at 为主字段
+    # op.drop_column('predictions', 'cutoff_at')  # 暂不删除,避免破坏现有数据
+
+    # 2. 新增 status CHECK 约束
+    op.create_check_constraint('ck_status_enum', 'predictions', "status IN ('success', 'failed', 'degraded')")
+
+    # 3. MatchStats 新增数据血缘字段
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('source', sa.String(length=30), nullable=True))
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('source_record_id', sa.String(length=100), nullable=True))
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('retrieved_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True))
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('available_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True))
+
+    # 4. 索引
+    op.create_index('ix_match_stats_available_at', 'match_stats', ['available_at'])
+    op.create_index('ix_predictions_cutoff_at', 'predictions', ['prediction_cutoff_at'])
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_predictions_cutoff_at', table_name='predictions')
+    op.drop_index('ix_match_stats_available_at', table_name='match_stats')
+
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'available_at')
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'retrieved_at')
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'source_record_id')
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'source')
+
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_status_enum', 'predictions', type_='check')
+
+    op.drop_column('predictions', 'prediction_cutoff_at')
+    op.drop_column('predictions', 'prediction_created_at')
+    op.drop_column('predictions', 'match_kickoff_at')
+    op.drop_column('predictions', 'status')

alembic/versions/0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup.py

@@ -0,0 +1,80 @@
+"""清理 schema 与 ORM 模型的漂移
+
+Revision ID: 0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup
+Revises: 0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance
+Create Date: 2026-09-15
+
+背景(见代码审查报告 P1-1):
+  0005 迁移在 predictions 表留下了 `cutoff_at` 列(删除语句被注释掉),
+  但 ORM 模型 `Prediction` 中并无该字段 —— 这是一处会长期存在的 schema 漂移,
+  而 alembic autogenerate 会持续建议 drop 它,造成噪声。
+
+  同时 0005 创建的两个索引 `ix_match_stats_available_at` 与
+  `ix_predictions_cutoff_at` 未在 ORM 声明,autogenerate 会建议删除它们 ——
+  一旦被误删,数据血缘相关的时间过滤查询会退化为全表扫描。
+
+本迁移做两件事:
+  1. drop 掉幽灵列 predictions.cutoff_at(数据已由 prediction_cutoff_at 承载,
+     迁移前先把非空值回填过去,避免丢数据)
+  2. 显式重建这两个索引(幂等:先 drop if exists 再 create),使 DB 状态与
+     修正后的 ORM 声明一致
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    bind = op.get_bind()
+    inspector = sa.inspect(bind)
+
+    # --- 1. 幽灵列 cutoff_at: 先把数据回填到 prediction_cutoff_at 再删除 ---
+    pred_cols = {c["name"] for c in inspector.get_columns("predictions")}
+    if "cutoff_at" in pred_cols:
+        if "prediction_cutoff_at" in pred_cols:
+            # 仅回填尚未有值的行,避免覆盖更权威的数据
+            op.execute(
+                "UPDATE predictions "
+                "SET prediction_cutoff_at = cutoff_at "
+                "WHERE prediction_cutoff_at IS NULL AND cutoff_at IS NOT NULL"
+            )
+        op.drop_column("predictions", "cutoff_at")
+
+    # --- 2. 与 ORM 声明对齐的索引(幂等重建) ---
+    stats_idx = {i["name"] for i in inspector.get_indexes("match_stats")}
+    if "ix_match_stats_available_at" not in stats_idx:
+        op.create_index("ix_match_stats_available_at", "match_stats", ["available_at"])
+
+    pred_idx = {i["name"] for i in inspector.get_indexes("predictions")}
+    if "ix_predictions_cutoff_at" not in pred_idx:
+        op.create_index(
+            "ix_predictions_cutoff_at", "predictions", ["prediction_cutoff_at"]
+        )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    bind = op.get_bind()
+    inspector = sa.inspect(bind)
+
+    # 恢复幽灵列(与 0005 的最终状态一致:列存在但无值)
+    pred_cols = {c["name"] for c in inspector.get_columns("predictions")}
+    if "cutoff_at" not in pred_cols:
+        op.add_column(
+            "predictions",
+            sa.Column("cutoff_at", sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+        )
+
+    stats_idx = {i["name"] for i in inspector.get_indexes("match_stats")}
+    if "ix_match_stats_available_at" in stats_idx:
+        op.drop_index("ix_match_stats_available_at", table_name="match_stats")
+
+    pred_idx = {i["name"] for i in inspector.get_indexes("predictions")}
+    if "ix_predictions_cutoff_at" in pred_idx:
+        op.drop_index("ix_predictions_cutoff_at", table_name="predictions")

alembic/versions/0007_injuries_constraint_naming_align.py

@@ -0,0 +1,81 @@
+"""修复 injuries 表约束命名与 ORM 声明不一致
+
+Revision ID: 0007_injuries_constraint_naming_align
+Revises: 0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup
+Create Date: 2026-09-16
+
+背景(见代码审查报告 P2-5):
+  0003 迁移使用 sa.UniqueConstraint 创建唯一约束,
+  而 ORM models.py 中声明为 Index(..., unique=True)。
+  虽然 PostgreSQL 中两者效果相同(都保证唯一性),
+  但 pg_catalog 中表示不同,会导致:
+    - alembic autogenerate 持续报告漂移
+    - 约束命名约定不一致(uc_ 前缀 vs ix_ 前缀)
+
+  本迁移将 UniqueConstraint 替换为唯一索引,与 ORM 声明对齐。
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0007_injuries_constraint_naming_align'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    bind = op.get_bind()
+    inspector = sa.inspect(bind)
+
+    # 检查当前约束类型
+    constraints = {
+        c["name"]: c
+        for c in inspector.get_unique_constraints("injuries")
+    }
+    indexes = {
+        i["name"]: i
+        for i in inspector.get_indexes("injuries")
+    }
+
+    # 如果存在 UniqueConstraint 形式的 ix_injuries_player_fixture,替换为唯一索引
+    if "ix_injuries_player_fixture" in constraints:
+        # 删除唯一约束
+        op.drop_constraint("ix_injuries_player_fixture", "injuries", type_="unique")
+
+    # 如果不存在同名唯一索引,创建它(与 ORM 声明一致)
+    if "ix_injuries_player_fixture" not in indexes:
+        op.create_index(
+            "ix_injuries_player_fixture",
+            "injuries",
+            ["player_id", "fixture_id", "injury_type"],
+            unique=True,
+        )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    bind = op.get_bind()
+    inspector = sa.inspect(bind)
+
+    indexes = {
+        i["name"]: i
+        for i in inspector.get_indexes("injuries")
+    }
+    constraints = {
+        c["name"]: c
+        for c in inspector.get_unique_constraints("injuries")
+    }
+
+    # 恢复为 UniqueConstraint 形式
+    if "ix_injuries_player_fixture" in indexes:
+        op.drop_index("ix_injuries_player_fixture", table_name="injuries")
+
+    if "ix_injuries_player_fixture" not in constraints:
+        op.create_unique_constraint(
+            "ix_injuries_player_fixture",
+            "injuries",
+            ["player_id", "fixture_id", "injury_type"],
+        )

alembic/versions/0007_predictions_unique_constraint.py

@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+"""为 predictions 表添加 match_id+provider+model 唯一约束
+
+Revision ID: 0007_predictions_unique_constraint
+Revises: 0007_injuries_constraint_naming_align
+Create Date: 2026-09-16
+
+背景(见代码审查报告 P1-6):
+  同一 match_id + provider + model 组合不应产生重复预测。
+  当前缺少数据库级唯一约束,回测多次运行或并发采集可能产生重复记录,
+  导致统计偏差。
+
+  先清理已存在的重复记录(保留最早创建的那条),再添加唯一约束。
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0007_predictions_unique_constraint'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0007_injuries_constraint_naming_align'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 1. 清理已存在的重复记录(保留 id 最小的)
+    op.execute(
+        """
+        DELETE FROM predictions
+        WHERE id NOT IN (
+            SELECT MIN(id)
+            FROM predictions
+            GROUP BY match_id, provider, model
+        )
+        AND match_id IN (
+            SELECT match_id
+            FROM predictions
+            GROUP BY match_id, provider, model
+            HAVING COUNT(*) > 1
+        )
+        """
+    )
+
+    # 2. 添加唯一约束
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        "uq_predictions_match_provider_model",
+        "predictions",
+        ["match_id", "provider", "model"],
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_constraint(
+        "uq_predictions_match_provider_model",
+        "predictions",
+        type_="unique",
+    )

alembic/versions/0008_raw_event_and_ingest_failure.py

@@ -0,0 +1,107 @@
+"""创建 Bronze 层、死信表、质量监控、血缘追踪 4 张新表
+
+Revision ID: 0008_raw_event_and_ingest_failure
+Revises: 0007_predictions_unique_constraint
+Create Date: 2026-09-17
+
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+from sqlalchemy.dialects.postgresql import JSONB
+
+revision: str = '0008_raw_event_and_ingest_failure'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0007_predictions_unique_constraint'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 1. RawEvent - Bronze 层原始事件存档
+    op.create_table(
+        'raw_events',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.BigInteger(), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('source_system', sa.String(50), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('source_record_id', sa.String(100), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('raw_payload', JSONB(), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('ingested_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+        sa.Column('ingest_batch_id', sa.String(36), nullable=True),
+        sa.UniqueConstraint('source_system', 'source_record_id', name='uq_raw_event'),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_raw_event_batch', 'raw_events', ['ingest_batch_id'])
+
+    # 2. IngestFailure - 采集失败死信表
+    op.create_table(
+        'ingest_failures',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.BigInteger(), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('source_system', sa.String(50), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('entity_type', sa.String(50), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('source_record_id', sa.String(100), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('error_type', sa.String(50), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('error_detail', sa.Text(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('raw_payload', JSONB(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('retry_count', sa.Integer(), server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('next_retry_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('status', sa.String(20), server_default='pending'),
+        sa.Column('created_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+        sa.Column('resolved_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_ingest_failure_status', 'ingest_failures', ['status', 'next_retry_at'])
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_ingest_failure_status',
+        'ingest_failures',
+        "status IN ('pending', 'retrying', 'resolved', 'abandoned')",
+    )
+
+    # 3. DataQualityCheck - 数据质量监控
+    op.create_table(
+        'data_quality_checks',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.BigInteger(), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('check_name', sa.String(100), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('entity_type', sa.String(50), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('entity_id', sa.Integer(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('expected_value', sa.Float(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('actual_value', sa.Float(), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('passed', sa.Boolean(), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('severity', sa.String(10), server_default='warning'),
+        sa.Column('detail', JSONB(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('checked_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_dqc_checked_at', 'data_quality_checks', ['checked_at'])
+    op.create_index('ix_dqc_entity', 'data_quality_checks', ['entity_type', 'entity_id'])
+
+    # 4. DataLineage - ETL 血缘追踪
+    op.create_table(
+        'data_lineage',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.BigInteger(), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('source_system', sa.String(50), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('source_record_id', sa.String(100), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('target_table', sa.String(50), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('target_id', sa.Integer(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('transform_name', sa.String(50), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('transform_detail', JSONB(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('batch_id', sa.String(36), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('created_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_lineage_source', 'data_lineage', ['source_system', 'source_record_id'])
+    op.create_index('ix_lineage_target', 'data_lineage', ['target_table', 'target_id'])
+    op.create_index('ix_lineage_batch', 'data_lineage', ['batch_id'])
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_lineage_batch', table_name='data_lineage')
+    op.drop_index('ix_lineage_target', table_name='data_lineage')
+    op.drop_index('ix_lineage_source', table_name='data_lineage')
+    op.drop_table('data_lineage')
+
+    op.drop_index('ix_dqc_entity', table_name='data_quality_checks')
+    op.drop_index('ix_dqc_checked_at', table_name='data_quality_checks')
+    op.drop_table('data_quality_checks')
+
+    op.drop_index('ix_ingest_failure_status', table_name='ingest_failures')
+    op.drop_table('ingest_failures')
+
+    op.drop_index('ix_raw_event_batch', table_name='raw_events')
+    op.drop_table('raw_events')

alembic/versions/0009_match_stats_xg_fields.py

@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
+"""为 MatchStats 添加 xG 追踪字段
+
+Revision ID: 0009_match_stats_xg_fields
+Revises: 0008_raw_event_and_ingest_failure
+Create Date: 2026-09-17
+
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0009_match_stats_xg_fields'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0008_raw_event_and_ingest_failure'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('xg_source', sa.String(30), nullable=True))
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('xg_updated_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True))
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('xg_source_record_id', sa.String(100), nullable=True))
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'xg_source_record_id')
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'xg_updated_at')
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'xg_source')

alembic/versions/0010_app_settings.py

@@ -0,0 +1,30 @@
+"""新增 app_settings 表(后台运行时配置)
+
+Revision ID: 0010_app_settings
+Revises: 0009_match_stats_xg_fields
+Create Date: 2026-09-18
+
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0010_app_settings'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0009_match_stats_xg_fields'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_table(
+        'app_settings',
+        sa.Column('key', sa.String(100), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('value', sa.Text(), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('updated_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_table('app_settings')

alembic/versions/0011_prediction_alt_scores.py

@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+"""predictions 增加备选比分字段
+
+Revision ID: 0011_prediction_alt_scores
+Revises: 0010_app_settings
+Create Date: 2026-09-19
+
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0011_prediction_alt_scores'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0010_app_settings'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('alt_pred_home_goals', sa.Integer(), nullable=True))
+    op.add_column('predictions', sa.Column('alt_pred_away_goals', sa.Integer(), nullable=True))
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_column('predictions', 'alt_pred_away_goals')
+    op.drop_column('predictions', 'alt_pred_home_goals')

alembic/versions/0012_injuries_partial_unique_and_return_date.py

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+"""修复 injuries 唯一索引允许 NULL 重复 + 添加 return_date 字段
+
+Revision ID: 0012_injuries_partial_unique_and_return_date
+Revises: 0011_prediction_alt_scores
+Create Date: 2026-09-20
+
+Fix 4: 唯一索引 (player_id, fixture_id, injury_type) 三列均可 NULL,
+PostgreSQL 允许多条 NULL 重复。改为 partial unique index:
+  WHERE player_id IS NOT NULL AND fixture_id IS NOT NULL
+
+Fix 2: return_date 字段已在 ORM 声明,确保数据库列存在。
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used Alembic.
+revision: str = '0012_injuries_partial_unique_and_return_date'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0011_prediction_alt_scores'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    bind = op.get_bind()
+    inspector = sa.inspect(bind)
+
+    # 检查现有索引
+    indexes = {i["name"]: i for i in inspector.get_indexes("injuries")}
+
+    # Fix 4: 删除旧的全局唯一索引(允许 NULL 重复)
+    if "ix_injuries_player_fixture" in indexes:
+        op.drop_index("ix_injuries_player_fixture", table_name="injuries")
+
+    # 创建 partial unique index: 只在 player_id 和 fixture_id 都非空时强制唯一
+    op.execute(
+        """
+        CREATE UNIQUE INDEX ix_injuries_player_fixture
+        ON injuries (player_id, fixture_id, injury_type)
+        WHERE player_id IS NOT NULL AND fixture_id IS NOT NULL
+        """
+    )
+
+    # Fix 2: 确保 return_date 列存在(ORM 已声明,但早期迁移可能缺失)
+    columns = [c["name"] for c in inspector.get_columns("injuries")]
+    if "return_date" not in columns:
+        op.add_column(
+            "injuries",
+            sa.Column("return_date", sa.Date, nullable=True),
+        )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    # 删除 partial unique index
+    op.drop_index("ix_injuries_player_fixture", table_name="injuries")
+
+    # 恢复旧的全局唯一索引
+    op.create_index(
+        "ix_injuries_player_fixture",
+        "injuries",
+        ["player_id", "fixture_id", "injury_type"],
+        unique=True,
+    )

alembic/versions/0013_predictions_unique_constraint_mode_run_type.py

@@ -0,0 +1,74 @@
+"""修复预测唯一约束过粗,增加 mode + run_type 维度
+
+Revision ID: 0013_predictions_unique_constraint_mode_run_type
+Revises: 0012_injuries_partial_unique_and_return_date
+Create Date: 2026-09-20
+
+背景:
+  原唯一约束 (match_id, provider, model) 过粗,回测写入会覆盖未结算的实盘预测,
+  后续 settle 会污染评估数据。
+
+修复:
+  1. 新增 run_type 列(默认 'live'),区分实盘与回测
+  2. 唯一约束改为 (match_id, provider, model, mode, run_type)
+  3. 已有数据 run_type 回填为 'live'
+"""
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0013_predictions_unique_constraint_mode_run_type'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0012_injuries_partial_unique_and_return_date'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 1. 新增 run_type 列(先 nullable,回填后再改 NOT NULL)
+    op.add_column(
+        "predictions",
+        sa.Column("run_type", sa.String(10), nullable=True),
+    )
+
+    # 2. 回填已有数据:全部标记为 'live'
+    op.execute("UPDATE predictions SET run_type = 'live' WHERE run_type IS NULL")
+
+    # 3. 改为 NOT NULL
+    op.alter_column("predictions", "run_type", nullable=False)
+
+    # 4. 删除旧唯一约束
+    op.drop_constraint("uq_predictions_match_provider_model", "predictions", type_="unique")
+
+    # 5. 创建新唯一约束(包含 mode + run_type)
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        "uq_predictions_match_provider_model_mode_run_type",
+        "predictions",
+        ["match_id", "provider", "model", "mode", "run_type"],
+    )
+
+    # 6. 添加 check constraint
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        "ck_run_type_enum",
+        "predictions",
+        "run_type IN ('live', 'backtest')",
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    # 1. 删除 check constraint
+    op.drop_constraint("ck_run_type_enum", "predictions", type_="check")
+
+    # 2. 删除新唯一约束
+    op.drop_constraint("uq_predictions_match_provider_model_mode_run_type", "predictions", type_="unique")
+
+    # 3. 恢复旧唯一约束
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        "uq_predictions_match_provider_model",
+        "predictions",
+        ["match_id", "provider", "model"],
+    )
+
+    # 4. 删除 run_type 列
+    op.drop_column("predictions", "run_type")

alembic/versions/0014_predictions_agent_weights.py

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+"""为 predictions 表增加 agent_weights 列
+
+Revision ID: 0014_predictions_agent_weights
+Revises: 0013_predictions_unique_constraint_mode_run_type
+Create Date: 2026-09-20
+
+背景:
+  multi-agent 终裁的 agent_weights 原本只在 raw_response JSON 中,
+  无独立列,评估不便。本迁移增加 agent_weights JSONB 列,可空,旧行保持 NULL。
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0014_predictions_agent_weights'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0013_predictions_unique_constraint_mode_run_type'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 新增 agent_weights 列(JSONB, 可空, 旧行保持 NULL)
+    op.add_column(
+        "predictions",
+        sa.Column(
+            "agent_weights",
+            sa.dialects.postgresql.JSONB(),
+            nullable=True,
+            comment="multi-agent 终裁各专家权重, 格式: {expert_name: weight}",
+        ),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    # 删除 agent_weights 列
+    op.drop_column("predictions", "agent_weights")

alembic/versions/0015_bzzoiro_single_source.py

@@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
+"""bzzoiro 单一数据源重构:新增 standings、扩展 match_stats、删除 injuries
+
+Revision ID: 0015_bzzoiro_single_source
+Revises: 0014_predictions_agent_weights
+Create Date: 2026-09-20
+
+变更内容:
+  1. 新增 standings 表(联赛积分榜快照,来源 bzzoiro /leagues/{id}/standings/)
+  2. match_stats 新增 bzzoiro /events/{id}/stats/ 扩展字段:
+     home/away_big_chances, home/away_fouls
+  3. 删除 injuries 表(数据源已下线,不再采集伤停)
+  4. Understat 无独立表(xG 写入 match_stats),无需删表;
+     历史 source='understat' 数据保留,不再新增。
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0015_bzzoiro_single_source'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0014_predictions_agent_weights'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 0. matches 增加数据血缘列(bzzoiro 上游事件 ID)
+    op.add_column('matches', sa.Column('source_event_id', sa.BigInteger()))
+    op.create_index('ix_matches_source_event_id', 'matches', ['source_event_id'])
+
+    # 1. standings 表
+    op.create_table(
+        'standings',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.Integer(), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('league_id', sa.Integer(), sa.ForeignKey('leagues.id'), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('season', sa.String(12), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('team_id', sa.Integer(), sa.ForeignKey('teams.id'), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('position', sa.Integer(), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('played', sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('won', sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('drawn', sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('lost', sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('goals_for', sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('goals_against', sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('goal_diff', sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('points', sa.Integer(), nullable=False, server_default='0'),
+        sa.Column('xg_for', sa.Float()),
+        sa.Column('xg_against', sa.Float()),
+        sa.Column('form', sa.String(20)),
+        sa.Column('zone', sa.String(50)),
+        sa.Column('updated_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True)),
+        sa.Column('retrieved_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True)),
+        sa.UniqueConstraint('league_id', 'season', 'team_id', name='uq_standings_league_season_team'),
+    )
+    op.create_index(
+        'ix_standings_league_season_pos', 'standings',
+        ['league_id', 'season', 'position'],
+    )
+
+    # 2. match_stats 扩展字段
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('home_big_chances', sa.Integer()))
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('away_big_chances', sa.Integer()))
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('home_fouls', sa.Integer()))
+    op.add_column('match_stats', sa.Column('away_fouls', sa.Integer()))
+
+    # 3. 删除 injuries 表
+    op.drop_index('ix_injuries_player_fixture', table_name='injuries')
+    op.drop_index('ix_injuries_team_date', table_name='injuries')
+    op.drop_table('injuries')
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    # 恢复 injuries 表(不含数据)
+    op.create_table(
+        'injuries',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.Integer(), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('player_id', sa.Integer()),
+        sa.Column('player_name', sa.String(120), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('team_id', sa.Integer(), sa.ForeignKey('teams.id')),
+        sa.Column('fixture_id', sa.Integer()),
+        sa.Column('league_id', sa.Integer()),
+        sa.Column('injury_type', sa.String(50)),
+        sa.Column('reason', sa.String(200)),
+        sa.Column('injury_date', sa.Date()),
+        sa.Column('return_date', sa.Date()),
+        sa.Column('retrieved_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True)),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_injuries_player_fixture', 'injuries', ['player_id', 'fixture_id', 'injury_type'])
+    op.create_index('ix_injuries_team_date', 'injuries', ['team_id', 'injury_date'])
+
+    op.drop_index('ix_matches_source_event_id', table_name='matches')
+    op.drop_column('matches', 'source_event_id')
+
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'away_fouls')
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'home_fouls')
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'away_big_chances')
+    op.drop_column('match_stats', 'home_big_chances')
+
+    op.drop_index('ix_standings_league_season_pos', table_name='standings')
+    op.drop_table('standings')

alembic/versions/0016_schedules.py

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+"""新增 schedules 表
+
+Revision ID: 0016_schedules
+Revises: 0015_bzzoiro_single_source
+Create Date: 2026-09-21
+
+定时采集任务配置表。
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0016_schedules'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0015_bzzoiro_single_source'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_table(
+        'schedules',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.String(50), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('task', sa.String(20), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('cron', sa.String(100), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('leagues', sa.Text()),
+        sa.Column('enabled', sa.Boolean(), server_default='true'),
+        sa.Column('last_run_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True)),
+        sa.Column('last_status', sa.String(20)),
+        sa.Column('created_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True)),
+        sa.Column('updated_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True)),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_table('schedules')

alembic/versions/0017_mode_baseline.py

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
+"""扩展 ck_mode_enum 约束支持 baseline 模式
+
+Revision ID: 0017_mode_baseline
+Revises: 0016_schedules
+Create Date: 2026-09-21
+
+Code Review High-1/2 修复:
+  业务支持 mode='baseline'(非 LLM 统计基线),但 DB CHECK 约束只允许
+  ('single', 'multi'),导致 baseline 预测写入时 CheckViolation。
+  run_type='baseline' 改为 'live'(代码侧),约束无需扩展。
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0017_mode_baseline'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0016_schedules'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_mode_enum', 'predictions', type_='check')
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_mode_enum', 'predictions',
+        "mode IN ('single', 'multi', 'baseline')",
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    # 先清理 baseline 数据再恢复旧约束
+    op.execute("DELETE FROM predictions WHERE mode = 'baseline'")
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_mode_enum', 'predictions', type_='check')
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_mode_enum', 'predictions',
+        "mode IN ('single', 'multi')",
+    )

alembic/versions/0018_match_checks.py

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+"""Match 表补充 CHECK 约束:完赛必须有比分 + 状态枚举 + 半场≤全场
+
+Revision ID: 0018_match_checks
+Revises: 0017_mode_baseline
+Create Date: 2026-09-21
+
+Code Review DB-5:
+  - 已完赛比赛必须有比分(数据库级兜底)
+  - match_status 枚举约束
+  - 半场进球 ≤ 全场进球
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+
+# revision identifiers, used by Alembic.
+revision: str = '0018_match_checks'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0017_mode_baseline'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 先清理可能违反新约束的数据
+    op.execute("UPDATE matches SET match_status = 'scheduled' WHERE match_status NOT IN ('finished', 'scheduled', 'in_play', 'paused', 'postponed', 'cancelled', 'suspended')")
+    op.execute("UPDATE matches SET home_goals = 0, away_goals = 0 WHERE match_status = 'finished' AND (home_goals IS NULL OR away_goals IS NULL)")
+
+    # 添加 CHECK 约束
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_finished_has_score', 'matches',
+        "match_status <> 'finished' OR (home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)",
+    )
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_status_enum', 'matches',
+        "match_status IN ('finished', 'scheduled', 'in_play', 'paused', 'postponed', 'cancelled', 'suspended')",
+    )
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_home_ht_le_full', 'matches',
+        "home_ht_goals IS NULL OR home_goals IS NULL OR home_ht_goals <= home_goals",
+    )
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_away_ht_le_full', 'matches',
+        "away_ht_goals IS NULL OR away_goals IS NULL OR away_ht_goals <= away_goals",
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_away_ht_le_full', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_home_ht_le_full', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_status_enum', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_finished_has_score', 'matches', type_='check')

alembic/versions/0019_ingest_jobs.py

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+"""采集任务状态表 ingest_jobs
+
+Revision ID: 0019_ingest_jobs
+Revises: 0018_match_checks
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0019_ingest_jobs'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0018_match_checks'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_table(
+        'ingest_jobs',
+        sa.Column('id', sa.String(36), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('task', sa.String(20), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('params', sa.JSON(), nullable=False, server_default='{}'),
+        sa.Column('status', sa.String(20), nullable=False, server_default='pending'),
+        sa.Column('result', sa.JSON(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('error', sa.Text(), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('created_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+        sa.Column('started_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+        sa.Column('finished_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=True),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_ingest_job_status_created', 'ingest_jobs', ['status', 'created_at'])
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_ingest_job_status', 'ingest_jobs',
+        "status IN ('pending', 'running', 'success', 'failed')",
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_ingest_job_status', 'ingest_jobs', type_='check')
+    op.drop_index('ix_ingest_job_status_created', table_name='ingest_jobs')
+    op.drop_table('ingest_jobs')

alembic/versions/0020_team_aliases.py

@@ -0,0 +1,32 @@
+"""球队别名表 team_aliases
+
+Revision ID: 0020_team_aliases
+Revises: 0019_ingest_jobs
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0020_team_aliases'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0019_ingest_jobs'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_table(
+        'team_aliases',
+        sa.Column('alias_normalized', sa.String(120), primary_key=True),
+        sa.Column('team_id', sa.Integer, sa.ForeignKey('teams.id', ondelete='CASCADE'), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('original_alias', sa.String(120), nullable=False),
+        sa.Column('created_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), server_default=sa.func.now()),
+    )
+    op.create_index('ix_team_aliases_team_id', 'team_aliases', ['team_id'])
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_team_aliases_team_id', table_name='team_aliases')
+    op.drop_table('team_aliases')

alembic/versions/0021_match_source_event_id_unique.py

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+"""matches.source_event_id 部分唯一索引
+
+业务唯一键:同联赛同主客同自然天一条(ix_matches_unique,既有)。
+source_event_id 是上游 bzzoiro 的比赛 id,用于统计回填与血缘追踪;
+当它非空时应全局唯一(同一 upstream 比赛只对应一行 matches),
+避免同一场比赛因自然键天级舍入差异产生重复。
+
+partial unique(WHERE source_event_id IS NOT NULL):
+  - 兼容存量空 source_event_id 的历史行(不强制回填);
+  - 新采集行均带 source_event_id,从此具备 upstream 唯一性。
+
+Revision ID: 0021_match_source_event_id_unique
+Revises: 0020_team_aliases
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+
+revision: str = '0021_match_source_event_id_unique'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0020_team_aliases'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    op.create_index(
+        'ix_matches_source_event_id_unique',
+        'matches',
+        ['source_event_id'],
+        unique=True,
+        postgresql_where=op.text('source_event_id IS NOT NULL'),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_matches_source_event_id_unique', table_name='matches')

alembic/versions/0022_match_score_status.py

@@ -0,0 +1,63 @@
+"""P0-01: 比分可信度——score_status + 允许完赛缺分(NULL,禁止伪造 0:0)
+
+替换 ck_matches_finished_has_score:引入 score_status(known/missing/unknown),
+完赛 + score_status=missing 时 home/away_goals 必须 NULL(不伪造比分)。
+
+Revision ID: 0022_match_score_status
+Revises: 0021_match_source_event_id_unique
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0022_match_score_status'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0021_match_source_event_id_unique'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 1) 新增 score_status 列(默认 unknown)
+    op.add_column(
+        'matches',
+        sa.Column('score_status', sa.String(20), server_default='unknown', nullable=False),
+    )
+
+    # 2) 按现有数据回填 score_status(绝不写 goals=0):
+    #    - 有比分(两列均非 NULL) → known
+    #    - 无比分 + 完赛 → missing(缺分)
+    #    - 其余 → unknown
+    op.execute(
+        "UPDATE matches SET score_status = 'known'"
+        " WHERE home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL"
+    )
+    op.execute(
+        "UPDATE matches SET score_status = 'missing'"
+        " WHERE match_status = 'finished' AND home_goals IS NULL AND away_goals IS NULL"
+    )
+
+    # 3) 删除旧约束,加新约束
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_finished_has_score', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_score_status_enum', 'matches',
+        "score_status IN ('known', 'missing', 'unknown')",
+    )
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_score_integrity', 'matches',
+        "match_status <> 'finished'"
+        " OR (score_status = 'known' AND home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)"
+        " OR (score_status IN ('missing', 'unknown') AND home_goals IS NULL AND away_goals IS NULL)",
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_score_integrity', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.drop_constraint('ck_matches_score_status_enum', 'matches', type_='check')
+    op.create_check_constraint(
+        'ck_matches_finished_has_score', 'matches',
+        "match_status <> 'finished' OR (home_goals IS NOT NULL AND away_goals IS NOT NULL)",
+    )
+    op.remove_column('matches', 'score_status')

alembic/versions/0023_standings_append_only.py

@@ -0,0 +1,58 @@
+"""P0-02: 积分榜改为追加快照(append-only) + available_at
+
+去掉 uq_standings_league_season_team(league,season,team 唯一),
+改为 (league, season, team, available_at) 唯一;
+每次采集 INSERT 新行(available_at=now),支持回测还原历史榜单。
+
+Revision ID: 0023_standings_append_only
+Revises: 0022_match_score_status
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0023_standings_append_only'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0022_match_score_status'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    from datetime import datetime, timezone
+
+    # 1) 加 available_at 列(非空,默认 now;存量回填 retrieved_at 或 now)
+    op.add_column(
+        'standings',
+        sa.Column('available_at', sa.DateTime(timezone=True), nullable=False,
+                  server_default=sa.func.now()),
+    )
+    # 存量行: available_at 取 retrieved_at(若存在)否则 now
+    op.execute("UPDATE standings SET available_at = COALESCE(retrieved_at, NOW())")
+
+    # 2) 去旧唯一约束,加新唯一约束(league, season, team, available_at)
+    op.drop_constraint('uq_standings_league_season_team', 'standings', type_='unique')
+    op.drop_index('ix_standings_leason_season_pos', table_name='standings')
+    op.create_index('ix_standings_league_season_pos', 'standings', ['league_id', 'season', 'position'])
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        'uq_standings_league_season_team_available', 'standings',
+        ['league_id', 'season', 'team_id', 'available_at'],
+    )
+    op.create_index(
+        'ix_standings_league_season_team_available', 'standings',
+        ['league_id', 'season', 'team_id', 'available_at'],
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_standings_league_season_team_available', table_name='standings')
+    op.drop_constraint('uq_standings_league_season_team_available', 'standings', type_='unique')
+    op.drop_index('ix_standings_league_season_pos', table_name='standings')
+    op.create_index('ix_standings_leason_season_pos', 'standings', ['league_id', 'season', 'position'])
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        'uq_standings_league_season_team', 'standings',
+        ['league_id', 'season', 'team_id'],
+    )
+    op.drop_column('standings', 'available_at')

alembic/versions/0024_prediction_idempotent_fingerprint.py

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+"""P0-03: Prediction 幂等指纹——移除旧唯一约束,改为 partial unique on input_hash
+
+input_hash 非空时唯一(同指纹返回已有行,不 UPDATE/INSERT);
+兼容旧数据 NULL input_hash(不强制回填)。
+
+Revision ID: 0024_prediction_idempotent_fingerprint
+Revises: 0023_standings_append_only
+Create Date: 2026-09-22
+"""
+
+from typing import Sequence, Union
+
+from alembic import op
+import sqlalchemy as sa
+
+revision: str = '0024_prediction_idempotent_fingerprint'
+down_revision: Union[str, None] = '0023_standings_append_only'
+branch_labels: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+depends_on: Union[str, Sequence[str], None] = None
+
+
+def upgrade() -> None:
+    # 移除旧唯一约束(match, provider, model, mode, run_type)
+    op.drop_constraint(
+        'uq_predictions_match_provider_model_mode_run_type',
+        'predictions', type_unique=True,
+    )
+    # P0-03: partial unique on input_hash(非空时唯一)
+    op.create_index(
+        'ix_predictions_input_hash_unique', 'predictions', ['input_hash'], unique=True,
+        postgresql_where=sa.text('input_hash IS NOT NULL'),
+    )
+
+
+def downgrade() -> None:
+    op.drop_index('ix_predictions_input_hash_unique', table_name='predictions')
+    op.create_unique_constraint(
+        'uq_predictions_match_provider_model_mode_run_type',
+        'predictions',
+        ['match_id', 'provider', 'model', 'mode', 'run_type'],
+    )

docker-compose.yml

@@ -2,30 +2,58 @@ services:
   postgres:
     image: postgres:16-alpine
     environment:
-      POSTGRES_USER: football
-      POSTGRES_PASSWORD: football
-      POSTGRES_DB: football
+      POSTGRES_USER: ${POSTGRES_USER:?POSTGRES_USER 未设置}
+      POSTGRES_PASSWORD: ${POSTGRES_PASSWORD:?POSTGRES_PASSWORD 未设置}
+      POSTGRES_DB: ${POSTGRES_DB:-football}
     ports:
-      - "5432:5432"
+      - "${POSTGRES_PORT:-5433}:5432"
     volumes:
       - pgdata:/var/lib/postgresql/data
     healthcheck:
-      test: ["CMD-SHELL", "pg_isready -U football"]
+      test: ["CMD-SHELL", "pg_isready -U ${POSTGRES_USER:?POSTGRES_USER 未设置}"]
       interval: 5s
       timeout: 5s
       retries: 5
 
   api:
     build: .
-    command: uvicorn src.api.app:app --host 0.0.0.0 --port 8000 --reload
+    # Fix 2: 容器内 DATABASE_URL 使用 postgres 服务名(非 localhost)
+    # Fix 3: 启动时先跑 alembic upgrade,再启 uvicorn
+    command: >
+      sh -c "alembic upgrade head &&
+             uvicorn src.api.app:app --host 0.0.0.0 --port 8000"
     ports:
-      - "8000:8000"
+      - "${API_PORT:-8000}:8000"
+    environment:
+      # Fix 2: 容器内 DATABASE_URL 使用 postgres 服务名(非 localhost)
+      # 必须覆盖 .env 中的 DATABASE_URL,因为 Settings 不读 DB_HOST/DB_PORT
+      DATABASE_URL: postgresql+asyncpg://${POSTGRES_USER:?POSTGRES_USER 未设置}:${POSTGRES_PASSWORD:?POSTGRES_PASSWORD 未设置}@postgres:5432/${POSTGRES_DB:-football}
     env_file: .env
+    healthcheck:
+      test: ["CMD-SHELL", "curl -sf http://localhost:8000/health/ready || exit 1"]
+      interval: 10s
+      timeout: 5s
+      retries: 3
+      start_period: 10s
     depends_on:
       postgres:
         condition: service_healthy
     volumes:
       - ./src:/app/src
+      - ./alembic:/app/alembic
+      - ./alembic.ini:/app/alembic.ini
+
+  frontend:
+    # Fix 4: 多阶段构建 —— 先 build 静态文件,再复制到 nginx
+    build:
+      context: ./frontend
+      dockerfile: Dockerfile.frontend
+    ports:
+      - "${FRONTEND_PORT:-3000}:80"
+    volumes:
+      - ./frontend/nginx.conf:/etc/nginx/conf.d/default.conf:ro
+    depends_on:
+      - api
 
 volumes:
   pgdata:

docs/01-architecture.md

@@ -13,16 +13,15 @@
 │                                                     │
 │  数据查询   预测编排          采集(手动/cron 触发)    │
 │  ┌──────┐  ┌────────────┐  ┌───────────────────┐    │
-│  │matches│  │ orchestrator│  │ bzzoiro  (赛果)   │    │
+│  │matches│  │ orchestrator│  │ bzzoiro (唯一源)  │    │
 │  │leagues│  │  ┌─ 5 专家并行(便宜模型)            │    │
 │  └──┬───┘  │  │   h2h / form / stats /         │    │
-│     │      │  │   home_away / injuries         │    │
+│     │      │  │   home_away / standings        │    │
 │     │      │  └─ aggregator 终裁(强模型)        │    │
-│     │      └────────────┘  └───────────────────┘    │
-│     │              │              └ understat (xG)  │
-│  ┌──┴──────────────┴──┐       └ injuries (伤停)     │
-│  │ PostgreSQL (5 张表) │        httpx → 外部 API     │
-│  └────────────────────┘                            │
+│     │      └────────────┘  │ events / standings │    │
+│  ┌──┴──────────────┴──┐   │ /stats 三条管线     │    │
+│  │ PostgreSQL (12 张表)│   └───────────────────┘    │
+│  └────────────────────┘        httpx → 外部 API     │
 └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘
 ```
 
@@ -31,7 +30,7 @@
 1. `POST /predict {match_id}` → orchestrator
 2. `load_match_header`: 查比赛 + 双方 + 联赛(一次 eager load)
 3. **5 个专家 agent 并行**(`asyncio.gather`),每个:
-   - 各自的数据切片函数查库(近况/交锋/积分榜 SQL 聚合/伤停/xG)
+   - 各自的数据切片函数查库(近况/交锋/积分榜聚合/射门控球/xG)
    - 切片无数据 → **跳过 LLM**,直接 `no_data` stub(省 token、防幻觉)
    - 有数据 → 专属 prompt(专家模型,便宜快)→ 结构化 JSON 报告(`home_edge` 方向性评分 + 证据)
 4. **终裁 agent**:5 份报告 + 比赛信息 → 权衡采信度(`agent_weights`)→ 最终预测 JSON
@@ -44,7 +43,7 @@
 |---|---|
 | **多专家并行而非单次大 prompt** | 每维度独立迭代 prompt;报告可归因(哪个维度分析错了);总延迟 ≈ 2 次串行调用 |
 | **专家/终裁模型分档** | 专家用便宜模型快速分析,终裁用强模型汇总决策,成本与质量平衡(`LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL` / `LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL`) |
-| **no_data 门控** | 无数据维度(如伤停未接入)不调 LLM,终裁知道维度缺失,不编造 |
+| **no_data 门控** | 无数据维度(如积分榜未采集)不调 LLM,终裁知道维度缺失,不编造 |
 | **fail-open** | 单个专家失败只标记 `status=error`,其余照常;研究场景可用性优先 |
 | **`match_date_date` 天级去重** | 不同源时间精度不同,秒级匹配会产生重复行;天级 + 数据库唯一约束 |
 | **积分榜 SQL 聚合 + season 过滤** | `UNION ALL` 主客双视角 + `GROUP BY` 在库内算,只算当前赛季(修复过跨赛季 bug) |
@@ -57,40 +56,59 @@
 Profeto/
 ├── src/
 │   ├── api/
-│   │   ├── app.py               # FastAPI 工厂(lifespan 建表)
+│   │   ├── app.py               # FastAPI 工厂(lifespan:迁移校验/定时任务/生产限流提醒)
+│   │   ├── deps.py              # 依赖:管理接口鉴权(Cookie/X-API-Key)+ 限流
 │   │   ├── schemas.py           # Pydantic v2 请求/响应
 │   │   └── routes/
-│   │       ├── matches.py       # 联赛/比赛查询(游标分页)
-│   │       ├── predict.py       # 预测 + 预测历史
-│   │       ├── ingest.py        # 采集触发(自管 session)
-│   │       └── eval.py          # 赛后回填 + 准确率汇总
+│   │       ├── matches.py       # 联赛/比赛/上下文/积分榜(公开只读)
+│   │       ├── predict.py       # 预测(限流)+ 预测历史(需鉴权)
+│   │       ├── ingest.py        # 采集触发(需鉴权)
+│   │       ├── eval.py          # 赛后回填 + 准确率汇总(需鉴权)
+│   │       ├── backtest.py      # 历史回测(需鉴权)
+│   │       ├── auth.py          # 登录/登出/改密
+│   │       ├── admin_settings.py # /admin/** 配置/日志/数据质量(router 级鉴权)
+│   │       └── schedules.py     # 定时任务 + 死信重试(router 级鉴权)
 │   ├── db/
 │   │   ├── base.py              # async engine + get_db/get_db_read
-│   │   └── models.py            # 5 张表 ORM
+│   │   ├── models.py            # 12 张表 ORM
+│   │   ├── repositories.py      # 仓储层
+│   │   └── unit_of_work.py      # 事务边界
 │   ├── data/
-│   │   ├── bzzoiro.py           # 赛果采集 + 幂等入库
-│   │   ├── understat.py         # xG 回填
-│   │   ├── injuries.py          # 伤停采集(带文件缓存)
+│   │   ├── bzzoiro.py           # 唯一数据源:events/standings/stats 三管线 + Bronze 层
 │   │   ├── normalize.py         # NormalizedMatch 清洗契约
 │   │   ├── team_names.py        # 队名归一映射
+│   │   ├── team_names_zh.py     # 队名中文名映射
+│   │   ├── key_ring.py          # 多 key 轮换(429 冷却,进程内)
+│   │   ├── sources.py           # 数据源注册表
 │   │   └── config.py            # 联赛代码映射
 │   ├── llm/
 │   │   ├── provider.py          # OpenAI-compatible 抽象(共享连接池/JSON 兜底解析)
-│   │   ├── context_builder.py   # 数据切片(h2h/form/stats/home_away/injuries)+ 单 agent 拼接
+│   │   ├── context_builder.py   # 数据切片(h2h/form/stats/home_away/standings)+ 单 agent 拼接
 │   │   ├── predict.py           # 预测入口(mode 分派 + 缓存)
+│   │   ├── baseline.py          # 基线预测(均值模型,mode=baseline)
 │   │   ├── eval.py              # 准确率统计
+│   │   ├── utils.py             # LLM 工具函数
+│   │   ├── validation.py        # LLM 输出严格校验(Pydantic)
+│   │   ├── backtest.py          # 回测执行
 │   │   ├── agents/
 │   │   │   ├── base.py          # AgentSpec / AgentReport / run_agent
 │   │   │   └── orchestrator.py  # 并行专家 → 终裁 → 存库
 │   │   └── prompts/
 │   │       ├── match_prediction_v1/v2.md   # 单 agent 模板
-│   │       └── agents/{h2h,form,stats,home_away,injuries,aggregator}_v1.md
-│   └── core/config.py           # pydantic-settings
-├── alembic/versions/            # 0001 建表 + 0002 agent 字段
-├── frontend/src/pages/Matches.tsx  # 单页(预测面板 + 专家报告折叠区)
-├── tests/                       # 33 项(核心 13 + agent 20)
+│   │       └── agents/{form,stats,home_away,standings,h2h,aggregator}_v1.md
+│   └── core/
+│       ├── config.py            # pydantic-settings
+│       ├── crypto.py            # 加密/哈希
+│       ├── http_client.py       # 共享 httpx 客户端
+│       ├── log_buffer.py        # 内存日志缓冲(admin 日志页)
+│       ├── runtime_config.py    # DB 配置覆盖(app_settings)
+│       ├── scheduler.py         # 进程内 cron 调度器
+│       └── security_check.py    # 启动安全校验
+├── alembic/versions/            # 0001~0018(建表 → Bronze 层 → 单一数据源 → 基线模式等)
+├── frontend/src/                # pages/(公开站) + admin/(管理后台) + lib/http.ts(唯一 HTTP 实现)
+├── tests/                       # 核心 + agent 测试(250+ 项,自包含)
 ├── docker-compose.yml           # api + postgres 两容器
-└── docs/                         # 本文档
+└── docs/                        # 本文档
 ```
 
 ## 技术栈
@@ -103,5 +121,5 @@ Profeto/
 | HTTP | httpx(共享连接池)/ urllib(bzzoiro 同步限速) |
 | LLM | OpenAI-compatible 接口(openai/deepseek/ollama 等任一) |
 | 前端 | Vite + React 18 + TypeScript + Tailwind |
-| 测试 | pytest + pytest-asyncio(33 项,自包含) |
+| 测试 | pytest + pytest-asyncio(250+ 项,自包含) |
 | 部署 | Docker Compose(api + postgres) |

docs/02-quickstart.md

@@ -66,6 +66,9 @@ curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro \
   -d '{"leagues":["E0"],"date_from":"2026-08-01","date_to":"2026-09-08"}'
 ```
 
+> 注:采集/评估端点需管理员凭据。本地开发环境(未配置鉴权、非 production)默认放行;
+> 生产环境需先 `POST /auth/login` 取 Cookie,或带 `X-API-Key` 头。
+
 数据量大时**直接拉整赛季**(约 380 场,含近几个赛季更好,近况/交锋/积分榜都需要历史):
 
 ```bash
@@ -74,14 +77,20 @@ curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro \
   -d '{"leagues":["E0"],"date_from":"2025-08-01","date_to":"2026-09-08"}'
 ```
 
-### 回填 xG(可选,让攻防数据 agent 有数据)
+### 回填积分榜与统计(让攻防/排名专家有数据)
 
 ```bash
-curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/ingest/understat \
+curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro \
   -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
-  -d '{"league":"E0","season":2025}'
+  -d '{"task":"standings"}'
+
+curl -X POST http://localhost:8000/api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro \
+  -H "Content-Type: application/json" \
+  -d '{"task":"stats","leagues":["E0"],"limit":300}'
 ```
 
+`task=stats` 只补空字段(xG/射门/控球等),不创建比赛。
+
 ### 查比赛
 
 浏览器打开 http://localhost:5173 ,选"英超 / 未开赛";
@@ -126,4 +135,4 @@ curl http://localhost:8000/api/v1/eval/summary
 | predict 返回 502 | 看 uvicorn 日志的 LLM error;确认 `LLM_BASE_URL`/`LLM_API_KEY`;`response_format` 不兼容的网关会报错(改用支持 json mode 的模型) |
 | 采集 0 场 | bzzoiro Key 失效或联赛代码写错;先 `GET /api/v1/leagues` 看库里有没有联赛 |
 | 专家报告全是 no_data | 历史数据不够 —— 近况需要每队近 5 场、积分榜需要本赛季已完赛比赛,多拉几周数据 |
-| xg agent 报无 xG 数据 | 先跑 understat 回填;注意 understat 只有五大联赛 |
+| stats 专家报无 xG/统计 | 先跑 `task=stats` 回填(bzzoiro 统计管线,只补空字段) |

docs/03-api.md

@@ -4,18 +4,30 @@ Base URL: `http://localhost:8000` · 交互式文档: `/docs`(Swagger)与 `/redo
 
 所有数据端点返回 JSON。错误统一为 `{"detail": "<message>"}` + 对应 HTTP 状态码。
 
+## 鉴权模型
+
+| 级别 | 端点 | 说明 |
+|---|---|---|
+| **公开只读** | `GET /leagues`、`GET /matches`、`GET /matches/{id}`、`GET /matches/{id}/context`、`GET /standings`、`GET /health*` | 无需任何凭据;公开站直接调用 |
+| **公开 + 限流** | `POST /predict` | 内存滑动窗口限流(10 次/分钟/IP) |
+| **需管理员** | `GET /predictions*`、`POST /ingest/bzzoiro`、`/eval/*`、`POST /backtest`、`/admin/**` | Cookie 会话(`POST /auth/login` 颁发)或 `X-API-Key` 头 |
+
+管理端点在生产环境未配置鉴权时 fail-closed(503),不会静默放行。
+
 ---
 
-## 数据查询
+## 数据查询(公开只读)
 
 ### `GET /api/v1/leagues`
 
-列出已入库联赛。
+列出已入库联赛(P1-3: 公开站联赛筛选动态加载来源)。
 
 ```json
 [{"id": 1, "code": "E0", "name": "Premier League", "country": "England"}]
 ```
 
+仅返回 `id/code/name/country` 四个展示字段,不含任何配置或密钥信息。
+
 ### `GET /api/v1/matches`
 
 比赛列表,游标分页。
@@ -47,7 +59,44 @@ Base URL: `http://localhost:8000` · 交互式文档: `/docs`(Swagger)与 `/redo
 
 ### `GET /api/v1/matches/{id}`
 
-单场比赛详情,字段同上。
+单场比赛详情,字段同上,另含 `stats`(统计)与 `recent_predictions`(最近 5 条预测摘要)。
+
+### `GET /api/v1/matches/{id}/context`
+
+比赛上下文(公开只读,P1-2: 公开站详情页「近况/交锋」数据来源;不触发 LLM):
+
+- `home_recent`: 主队最近 5 场已完赛
+- `away_recent`: 客队最近 5 场已完赛
+- `h2h`: 双方最近 5 次交手
+
+```json
+{
+  "home_recent": [
+    {"match_date": "2026-09-12T14:00:00+00:00", "home_team": "阿森纳",
+     "away_team": "切尔西", "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1}
+  ],
+  "away_recent": [],
+  "h2h": []
+}
+```
+
+数据不足时对应列表为空(前端展示空态)。比赛不存在返回 404。
+
+### `GET /api/v1/standings`
+
+联赛积分榜(公开只读)。参数:`league`(联赛代码,空 = 全部)、`season`(空 = 各联赛最新赛季)。
+
+```json
+{"leagues": [
+  {"league_code": "E0", "league_name": "Premier League", "season": "2026-2027",
+   "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20T08:00:00+00:00",
+   "rows": [{"position": 1, "team": "阿森纳", "team_en": "Arsenal",
+             "played": 5, "won": 4, "drawn": 1, "lost": 0,
+             "goals_for": 11, "goals_against": 3, "goal_diff": 8,
+             "points": 13, "xg_for": 9.8, "xg_against": 3.9,
+             "form": "WWWDW", "zone": "UEFA Champions League"}]}
+]}
+```
 
 ---
 
@@ -87,22 +136,22 @@ Base URL: `http://localhost:8000` · 交互式文档: `/docs`(Swagger)与 `/redo
   "pred_home_goals": 2.1,
   "pred_away_goals": 1.0,
   "pred_1x2": "1",
-  "confidence": 0.68,
+  "subjective_confidence": 0.68,
   "reasoning": "综合 xg 报告的进球期望 2.1-1.0 与 form 报告的三连胜势头……",
   "agent_outputs": [
     {"agent": "h2h", "status": "ok", "data_sufficiency": "medium",
      "analysis": "近 5 次交锋主队 3 胜……", "home_edge": 0.4,
-     "confidence": 0.7, "key_evidence": ["近5次交锋主队3胜", "主场交锋3连胜"],
+     "subjective_confidence": 0.7, "key_evidence": ["近5次交锋主队3胜", "主场交锋3连胜"],
      "exp_home_goals": null, "exp_away_goals": null, "probable_score": null,
      "model": "gpt-4o-mini", "latency_ms": 2100,
      "prompt_tokens": 380, "completion_tokens": 120},
-    {"agent": "injuries", "status": "no_data", "data_sufficiency": "none",
-     "analysis": "该维度无数据,跳过分析。", "home_edge": null, "confidence": null,
+    {"agent": "standings", "status": "no_data", "data_sufficiency": "none",
+     "analysis": "该维度无数据,跳过分析。", "home_edge": null, "subjective_confidence": null,
      "key_evidence": [], "exp_home_goals": null, "exp_away_goals": null,
      "probable_score": null, "model": "", "latency_ms": null,
      "prompt_tokens": null, "completion_tokens": null}
   ],
-  "agent_weights": {"form": 0.9, "stats": 0.8, "home_away": 0.7, "injuries": 0.0, "h2h": 0.8},
+  "agent_weights": {"form": 0.9, "stats": 0.8, "home_away": 0.7, "standings": 0.8, "h2h": 0.8},
   "context": "[5 份报告的 JSON 串]",
   "latency_ms": 9800
 }
@@ -112,11 +161,11 @@ Base URL: `http://localhost:8000` · 交互式文档: `/docs`(Swagger)与 `/redo
 
 错误:404 比赛不存在;502 LLM 调用失败(终裁失败时整体失败,专家失败不会)。
 
-### `GET /api/v1/predictions?match_id=&limit=`
+### `GET /api/v1/predictions?match_id=&limit=`(需管理员)
 
 预测历史(倒序),含 `settled` 与实际比分回填状态。
 
-### `GET /api/v1/predictions/{id}`
+### `GET /api/v1/predictions/{id}`(需管理员)
 
 单条预测详情(含完整 `agent_outputs`)。
 
@@ -124,40 +173,34 @@ Base URL: `http://localhost:8000` · 交互式文档: `/docs`(Swagger)与 `/redo
 
 ## 数据采集
 
-### `POST /api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro`
+### `POST /api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro`(需管理员)
 
-从 bzzoiro 采集赛果/赛程并入库(幂等,重复跑安全)。
+从 bzzoiro(唯一数据源)采集数据并入库(幂等,重复跑安全)。任务在后台异步执行,请求立即返回。
 
 ```json
-{"leagues": ["E0", "SP1"], "date_from": "2025-08-01", "date_to": "2026-09-08", "status": "finished"}
+{"task": "all", "leagues": ["E0", "SP1"], "date_from": "2025-08-01", "date_to": "2026-09-08", "status": "finished"}
 ```
 
-- `status` 还可传 `scheduled` 拉未来赛程
+| 字段 | 默认 | 说明 |
+|---|---|---|
+| `task` | `events` | 采集任务:`events`(比赛)/ `standings`(积分榜)/ `stats`(统计回填,含 xG)/ `all` |
+| `leagues` | 全部已知联赛 | 联赛代码列表,如 `["E0", "SP1"]` |
+| `date_from` / `date_to` | 空 | 日期范围(`YYYY-MM-DD`) |
+| `status` | 空(两者都采) | `finished`(已完赛)/ `scheduled`(未来赛程) |
+| `season` | 当前赛季 | standings 赛季,如 `"2026-2027"` |
+| `limit` | 100 | stats 回填单次最大比赛数(1–500) |
+
 - 响应含每联赛 `inserted`/`updated`/`errors` 统计
+- `task=stats` 只补空字段、不创建比赛(xG/射门/控球等统计回填)
 
-### `POST /api/v1/ingest/understat`
-
-回填 xG(只补空字段,不创建比赛):
-
-```json
-{"league": "E0", "season": 2025}
-```
-
-`season=2025` 表示 2025-2026 赛季。仅支持五大联赛。
-
-### `POST /api/v1/ingest/injuries`
-
-采集伤停(需 `API_FOOTBALL_KEY`,当前只返回计数,尚未接入 context):
-
-```json
-{"date": "2026-09-10"}
-```
+> 历史版本曾有独立的 understat(xG)与 injuries(伤停)采集端点,
+> 已随数据源收敛为 bzzoiro 唯一来源而移除。
 
 ---
 
 ## 评估
 
-### `POST /api/v1/eval/settle`
+### `POST /api/v1/eval/settle`(需管理员)
 
 赛后回填实际比分:
 
@@ -165,14 +208,14 @@ Base URL: `http://localhost:8000` · 交互式文档: `/docs`(Swagger)与 `/redo
 {"prediction_id": 7, "home_goals": 2, "away_goals": 1}
 ```
 
-### `GET /api/v1/eval/summary`
+### `GET /api/v1/eval/summary`(需管理员)
 
 按 `provider × model` 聚合已结算预测:
 
 ```json
 {"summary": [
   {"provider": "openai", "model": "gpt-4o", "total": 12,
-   "accuracy_1x2": 58.3, "avg_score_rmse": 1.21, "avg_confidence": 0.65}
+   "accuracy_1x2": 58.3, "avg_score_rmse": 1.21, "avg_subjective_confidence": 0.65}
 ]}
 ```
 
@@ -183,7 +226,10 @@ Base URL: `http://localhost:8000` · 交互式文档: `/docs`(Swagger)与 `/redo
 
 ## 基础
 
-| 端点 | 说明 |
-|---|---|
-| `GET /health` | 存活检查 |
-| `GET /docs` | Swagger UI |
+| 端点 | 权限 | 说明 |
+|---|---|---|
+| `GET /health` | 公开 | 存活检查 |
+| `GET /docs`、`GET /redoc` | 公开 | Swagger UI / ReDoc |
+| `POST /auth/login`、`POST /auth/logout`、`GET /auth/me` | 公开 | 管理员 Cookie 会话登录/登出/当前用户 |
+| `POST /auth/change-password` | 需管理员 | 修改管理员密码 |
+| `POST /backtest` | 需管理员 | 历史回测(对已完赛比赛批量预测并评估) |

docs/04-agents.md

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ Profeto 的核心预测路径是 **5 个领域专家 Agent 并行分析 + 1 个
 | `form` 近期状态 | 分析比分与关键事件,判断近期走势 | 两队近 N 场赛果(含 xG) | `home_edge` + 走势判断 |
 | `stats` 攻防数据 | 评估进球、射门与控球,量化攻防强度 | 近 N 场进球/射门/控球/xG 统计 | `home_edge` + 攻防强度 |
 | `home_away` 主客因素 | 对比主场与客场表现,评估地理优势影响 | 主队主场战绩 + 客队客场战绩 | `home_edge` + 地理优势 |
-| `injuries` 阵容完整性 | 汇总伤停与停赛名单,评估战力缺失程度 | 伤停数据(当前无源 → no_data 门控) | `home_edge` 或 `no_data` |
+| `standings` 联赛排名 | 结合积分榜排名、积分与分区(欧冠/欧联/降级),评估双方竞争位置 | 两队当前赛季积分榜行(排名/积分/分区/近期战绩) | `home_edge` 或 `no_data` |
 | `h2h` 历史交锋 | 分析过去数年以及近期的交手数据,提取交手规律 | 近 N 次交锋(含主客方向 + 总计统计) | `home_edge` + 交手规律 |
 | `aggregator` 终裁 | 权衡 5 份报告 → 最终结论 | 5 份结构化报告 + 比赛头信息 | 最终预测 + 各报告采信度 |
 
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ POST /predict {match_id, mode: "multi"}
    │   ├─ form agent        ─┐
    │   ├─ stats agent         │ 每个 agent 拿到专属数据切片
    │   ├─ home_away agent     │ → no_data 门控 → 调 LLM → 输出 JSON 报告
-   │   ├─ injuries agent      │ (无数据 → 跳过 LLM,返回 stub)
+   │   ├─ standings agent     │ (无数据 → 跳过 LLM,返回 stub)
    │   └─ h2h agent         ─┘
    │
    ├─ aggregator agent(5 份报告 + 比赛头 → 最终 JSON)
@@ -39,12 +39,12 @@ POST /predict {match_id, mode: "multi"}
 5 个专家通过 `asyncio.gather` 并发,总延迟 ≈ `max(专家延迟) + 终裁延迟` ≈ 2 次串行 LLM 调用。
 
 ### 2. no_data 门控(省 token、防幻觉)
-数据切片为空时(如伤停数据源未接入),**跳过 LLM 调用**,直接返回:
+数据切片为空时(如该场比赛的积分榜尚未采集),**跳过 LLM 调用**,直接返回:
 ```json
-{"agent": "injuries", "status": "no_data", "data_sufficiency": "none",
+{"agent": "standings", "status": "no_data", "data_sufficiency": "none",
  "analysis": "该维度无数据,跳过分析。"}
 ```
-终裁 Agent 会看到这个 `no_data` 状态,不会编造伤停分析。
+终裁 Agent 会看到这个 `no_data` 状态,不会编造积分榜分析。
 
 ### 3. fail-open(单专家失败不阻断)
 单个专家 LLM 调用失败 → 其报告标记 `status: error`,其余 4 份 + 终裁照常执行。
@@ -65,7 +65,7 @@ POST /predict {match_id, mode: "multi"}
   "data_sufficiency": "high",
   "analysis": "近 5 次交锋主队 3 胜 1 平 1 负,主场交锋 3 连胜……",
   "home_edge": 0.4,
-  "confidence": 0.7,
+  "subjective_confidence": 0.7,
   "key_evidence": ["近5次交锋主队3胜", "主场交锋3连胜"]
 }
 ```
@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ POST /predict {match_id, mode: "multi"}
 | `status` | `ok` / `no_data` / `error` / `parse_error` |
 | `data_sufficiency` | `high` / `medium` / `low` / `none` |
 | `home_edge` | -1.0 ~ 1.0,正数=利主队,负数=利客队 |
-| `confidence` | 0.0 ~ 1.0,该专家对自己分析的信心 |
+| `subjective_confidence` | 0.0 ~ 1.0,该专家对自己分析的主观信心(非概率) |
 | `key_evidence` | 关键证据列表(最多 5 条) |
 
 ### 终裁 Agent 输出
@@ -87,13 +87,13 @@ POST /predict {match_id, mode: "multi"}
   "pred_home_goals": 2.1,
   "pred_away_goals": 1.0,
   "1x2": "1",
-  "confidence": 0.68,
+  "subjective_confidence": 0.68,
   "reasoning": "综合 stats 报告的攻防强度与 form 报告的三连胜势头……",
-  "agent_weights": {"form": 0.9, "stats": 0.8, "home_away": 0.7, "injuries": 0.0, "h2h": 0.8}
+  "agent_weights": {"form": 0.9, "stats": 0.8, "home_away": 0.7, "standings": 0.8, "h2h": 0.8}
 }
 ```
 
-`agent_weights` 体现终裁对各专家报告的采信度(0–1),可用于后续分析"哪个维度对预测贡献大"。
+`agent_weights` 体现终裁对各专家报告的采信度(0–1),可用于后续分析"哪个维度对预测贡献大"。注意:这是 LLM 主观权重,非统计权重。
 
 ## 模型分档配置
 
@@ -120,7 +120,7 @@ agents/
 ├── form_v1.md         # 近期状态专家
 ├── stats_v1.md        # 攻防数据专家
 ├── home_away_v1.md    # 主客因素专家
-├── injuries_v1.md     # 阵容完整性专家
+├── standings_v1.md    # 联赛排名专家
 ├── h2h_v1.md          # 历史交锋专家
 └── aggregator_v1.md   # 终裁
 ```
@@ -129,6 +129,19 @@ agents/
 迭代 prompt 时:复制 `h2h_v1.md` → `h2h_v2.md`,改内容,传 `prompt_version: "v2"`。
 `predictions.prompt_version` 存的是 `multi_v2`,与 single 模式的 `v1`/`v2` 天然分组,可在 eval summary 中 A/B 对比。
 
+### 版本纪律(强制)
+
+> **改 prompt 内容必须 bump 版本号(v2→v3),禁止默默修改 `*_v1.md` 内容却不改版本。**
+
+原因:
+1. **可复现性**:`predictions.prompt_version` 决定哪份 prompt 产生了历史预测;篡改 v1 会让历史预测的 prompt 来源失真,eval 对比失效。
+2. **A/B 可信度**:`get_eval_summary` 按 `(provider, model, prompt_version)` 分组。若 v1 内容在不同时间指向不同 prompt,则 v1 桶内数据不可比。
+3. **缓存一致性**:模板内容 hash 写入缓存键(`_prompt_template_hash`),版本不变则 hash 不变,命中旧缓存。bump 版本自动让旧缓存失效。
+
+**流程**:改 prompt → 新建 `*_v{N+1}.md` → 新请求传 `prompt_version=v{N+1}` → 旧版本文件保持不变(供历史复现)。
+
+代码保证:写入 DB 的 `prompt_version` 与 `_load_prompt_template(version)` / `load_agent_prompt(name, version)` 加载的文件**严格一致**,不会漂移。
+
 ## 如何新增一个专家 Agent
 
 三步:

docs/05-data.md

@@ -4,9 +4,10 @@
 
 | 数据源 | 用途 | 必需 Key | 说明 |
 |---|---|---|---|
-| bzzoiro | 赛果/赛程(主源) | `BZZOIRO_KEY` | 五大联赛历史 + 实时 |
-| understat | xG 回填 | 无(公开) | 仅五大联赛,补 `match_stats.xg` |
-| api-football | 伤停 | `API_FOOTBALL_KEY` | 当前只采集计数,未接入 context |
+| bzzoiro(唯一) | 赛果/赛程/积分榜/统计(xG、射门、控球等) | `BZZOIRO_KEY` | 五大联赛 + 欧战,历史 + 实时 |
+
+> 历史版本曾有 understat(xG 回填)与 api-football(伤停)两个辅助源,
+> 现已移除:数据源收敛为 bzzoiro 唯一来源,统计与积分榜均由 bzzoiro 管线采集。
 
 ### bzzoiro
 
@@ -17,11 +18,16 @@
   BZZOIRO_LEAGUE_IDS = {"E0": 1, "SP1": 3, "D1": 5, "I1": 4, "F1": 6, "CL": 7, "EL": 8}
   ```
 
-### understat
-
-- 端点:`/getLeagueData/{league}/{season}`,返回 JS 包裹的 JSON(需正则提取)
-- 只回填 xG(`match_stats.home_xg`/`away_xg`),**不创建新比赛**
-- 通过"天级日期 + 队名归一"匹配已有比赛
+> ⚠️ **统计字段映射待验证**:当前字段名基于常见足球 API 模式推测(如 `home_shots`/`away_shots`),
+> 未经真实 bzzoiro 响应校验。若真实字段不同,映射结果将为 None。
+> 请提供一份 event 样例核对以下字段:
+> - 射门: `home_shots` / `away_shots`
+> - 射正: `home_shots_on_target` / `away_shots_on_target`
+> - 角球: `home_corners` / `away_corners`
+> - 控球: `home_possession`
+> - xG: `home_xg` / `away_xg`
+> - 黄牌: `home_yellow_cards` / `away_yellow_cards`
+> - 红牌: `home_red_cards` / `away_red_cards`
 
 ## 数据清洗契约
 
@@ -54,12 +60,68 @@
 
 ### 队名归一化
 
-`src/data/team_names.py` 维护 `NORMALIZE_MAP`(如 `Man City` → `Manchester City`),未命中映射的队名原样返回。
+`src/data.team_names.py` 维护 `NORMALIZE_MAP`(如 `Man City` → `Manchester City`),未命中映射的队名原样返回。
 归一前先做 Unicode NFKD 去重音。
 
+**唯一键是归一后英文名**:`teams.name` 带 `UNIQUE` 约束,所有入库路径均经 `TeamRepository.get_or_create` 收敛归一化
+(events / standings 管线在调用前归一,仓库层再做一次幂等归一作为兜底)。创建新 Team 时打 `info` 日志记录「原始名 → 归一后名」。
+
+> ⚠️ **`normalize` 当前大小写敏感**:仅当入参大小写与 `NORMALIZE_MAP` 键完全匹配时才触发映射
+>(如 `"Man City"` → `"Manchester City"`,但 `"man city"` 原样保留)。上游 bzzoiro 返回的队名首字母大写,
+>实际命中无问题;若新增数据源返回全小写/全大写队名,需先 `title()` 再归一,否则会绕过映射产生重复 Team。
+
+#### 别名机制(`team_aliases`)
+
+归一仍可能遗漏历史重复队(如 `"Bayern Munich"` 与 `"Bayern München"` 经 NFKD 后相同则命中,
+但 `"Man United"` vs `"Manchester United"` 若漏映射)。`team_aliases` 表提供**显式别名→teams.id** 映射:
+
+| 列 | 说明 |
+|----|------|
+| `alias_normalized` | PK,`normalize(别名)` 后的稳定幂等键 |
+| `team_id` | FK → `teams.id`(ON DELETE CASCADE) |
+| `original_alias` | 原始写法(保留供参考) |
+
+**定位三步链**(`get_or_create`):`normalize(name)` → 查 `teams.name` → 查 `team_aliases`(以 `normalize(name)` 为 PK)→ 都没有才 insert 新 Team。别名命中即复用已有 Team,避免产生重复。
+
+**添加别名**(不自动合并历史重复队):
+
+- **Admin 接口**(推荐):`POST /api/v1/admin/teams/aliases {"alias": "Man United", "team_id": 42}`(require_admin,幂等)
+- **直接 SQL**:
+  ```sql
+  INSERT INTO team_aliases(alias_normalized, team_id, original_alias)
+  VALUES ('man united', 42, 'Man United')
+  ON CONFLICT (alias_normalized) DO UPDATE SET team_id = EXCLUDED.team_id, original_alias = EXCLUDED.original_alias;
+  ```
+
+> ⚠️ **别名不自动合并**:发现历史重复队 A/B 后,需人工确认归一目标(如保留 B),再为 A 的归一名添加别名指向 B。
+> 合并前请确认 A 的 `matches`/`standings` 引用是否需要迁移(可先 `SELECT COUNT(*) FROM matches WHERE home_team_id = A.id OR away_team_id = A.id` 评估)。
+
+**改名 / 合并流程**(人工):
+
+当发现两个 `teams` 行实际是同一球队(如 `Manchester City` 与 `Man City` 因历史数据大小写差异各占一行):
+
+1. 确定**保留行**(通常选归一后规范名、且被更多 Match 引用的那行)。
+2. 将被删行的所有引用指向保留行(`UPDATE matches SET home_team_id = 保留id WHERE home_team_id = 删行id`,客场同理;
+   `standings` / `match_stats` 按 `team_id` 同理)。
+3. 删掉多余行:`DELETE FROM teams WHERE id = 删行id`。
+
+> 此过程引入外键约束风险,务必在事务中执行并先 `BEGIN; ... ` 验证行数后再 `COMMIT`。
+> 暂不做自动合并(避免误合相似名),仅通过下方 Admin 接口列出「近似重名」候选,由人工判定。
+
+## Admin:近似重名候选
+
+`GET /api/v1/admin/team-name-duplicates` 只读列出启发式相似候选(大小写差异、子串包含、前缀碰撞),不做自动合并。
+典型用途:定期巡检,发现候选后走上方人工 SQL 合并。启发式规则:
+
+- **大小写变体**:`lower(name)` 相同但 `name` 不同(如 `Arsenal FC` / `arsenal fc`)。
+- **子串包含**:A 是 B 的子串且长度 ≥ 5(如 `Manchester` / `Manchester City`)。
+- **前缀碰撞**:前 8 个字符相同的两队。
+
+命中任一规则即列为候选,按相似度分组返回。
+
 ## 数据库 Schema
 
-5 张表:
+12 张表:核心业务表 5 张见下方 DDL,其余 7 张(积分榜/配置/调度/治理)见后文表格。
 
 ```sql
 -- 联赛
@@ -124,25 +186,57 @@ CREATE TABLE predictions (
     latency_ms INT,
     pred_home_goals FLOAT, pred_away_goals FLOAT,
     pred_1x2 VARCHAR(3),                 -- '1' / 'X' / '2'
-    confidence FLOAT,
+    subjective_confidence FLOAT,         -- LLM 主观置信度(非概率)
+    status VARCHAR(20) NOT NULL DEFAULT 'success',  -- 'success' / 'failed' / 'degraded'
+    match_kickoff_at TIMESTAMPTZ,        -- 比赛时间
+    prediction_created_at TIMESTAMPTZ,   -- 预测创建时间
+    prediction_cutoff_at TIMESTAMPTZ,    -- 数据截止时间
+    input_hash VARCHAR(64),              -- 输入快照 hash
     reasoning TEXT,
     raw_response JSONB,                  -- LLM 完整原始响应
     agent_outputs JSONB,                 -- multi 模式: 5 份专家报告
+    agent_weights JSONB,                 -- multi 模式: 终裁给出的各专家权重
     created_at TIMESTAMPTZ,
     actual_home_goals INT, actual_away_goals INT,  -- 赛后回填
     settled BOOLEAN DEFAULT FALSE
 );
 ```
 
+其余 7 张表(DDL 略,详见 `src/db/models.py` 与 alembic 迁移):
+
+| 表 | 状态 | 用途 |
+|---|---|---|
+| `standings` | 已启用 | 联赛积分榜追加快照(P0-02):每次采集 INSERT 新行(available_at=now),唯一键 `(league_id, season, team_id, available_at)`;查询取每队 available_at 最新快照,支持回测还原历史榜单。含排名/战绩/进失球/积分/分区(zone) |
+| `app_settings` | 已启用 | 后台运行时设置(如数据源 API Key),读取时优先于 `.env` 默认值 |
+| `schedules` | 已启用 | 定时采集任务配置(task/cron/leagues/enabled),供内置调度器执行 |
+| `raw_events` | 预留未启用 | Bronze 层原始事件存档;规划中用于重放与审计 |
+| `ingest_failures` | 已启用 | 采集失败死信:bzzoiro 三条管线(events/standings/stats)抓取失败时写入,admin 后台可查看与重试 |
+| `data_quality_checks` | 预留未启用 | 数据质量检查结果;规划中定时检查比赛/统计/积分榜完整性 |
+| `data_lineage` | 预留未启用 | ETL 血缘追踪;规划中记录源记录到目标表的映射 |
+
 ### 关键设计点
 
 1. **`match_date_date`(天级日期)**: 用于天级去重。bzzoiro 返回的时间带时分秒,精确匹配不可靠,故拆出 `DATE` 列做唯一键。
 
-2. **`ix_matches_unique`**: `(league_id, home_team_id, away_team_id, match_date_date)` 唯一,保证同一场比赛重复采集时 upsert 而非插入重复行。
+2. **`ix_matches_unique`**: `(league_id, home_team_id, away_team_id, match_date_date)` 唯一,保证同一场比赛重复采集时 upsert 而非插入重复行。**业务唯一:同联赛同主客同自然天一条。**
 
-3. **`predictions` 级联删除**: `ON DELETE CASCADE`,删比赛时自动清其预测。
+3. **`source_event_id` 部分唯一**: `ix_matches_source_event_id_unique`(WHERE source_event_id IS NOT NULL)——上游 bzzoiro 的比赛 id,当非空时全局唯一。作用:
+   - 统计回填(`/events/{id}/stats/`)与 Bronze 血缘(/events/ 采集)通过它定位比赛,不依赖自然键天级舍入;
+   - 新采集行均带此 id,避免同一 upstream 比赛因时间戳差异绕开自然键产生重复。
+   - 存量空 source_event_id 历史行不受影响(不强制回填)。
 
-4. **`mode` + `prompt_version`**: `single` 模式存 `v1`/`v2`,`multi` 模式存 `multi_v1`/`multi_v2`,eval summary 按这两列天然分组对比。
+4. **`predictions` 级联删除**: `ON DELETE CASCADE`,删比赛时自动清其预测。
+
+5. **`mode` + `prompt_version`**: `single` 模式存 `v1`/`v2`,`multi` 模式存 `multi_v1`/`multi_v2`,eval summary 按这两列天然分组对比。
+
+## 采集 upsert 查找顺序
+
+events 管线按以下优先级定位已有比赛,命中即复用(更新):
+
+1. **`source_event_id`**(upstream event id,唯一索引命中)——最精确,跨自然键舍入差异;
+2. **自然键**:`(league_id, home_team_id, away_team_id, match_date_date)`(内存去重,覆盖无 event id 的采集)。
+
+两者都未命中 → insert 新比赛。
 
 ## 入库语义(幂等)
 
@@ -154,7 +248,9 @@ CREATE TABLE predictions (
   - 状态:只允许单向升级(`scheduled` → `finished`),防止完赛行被覆盖成赛程
   - stats:只补空(`home_xg` 已有值时不覆盖)
 
-`ingest_understat` 只回填 xG(也只补空),不创建比赛。
+`task=stats` 只回填统计(xG/射门/控球等,也只补空),不创建比赛。
+
+`task=standings` 追加快照(available_at=now,ON CONFLICT DO NOTHING);公开接口与切片均取每队 available_at 最新快照,支持回测还原历史榜单。
 
 ## 采集建议
 
@@ -167,9 +263,11 @@ curl -X POST /api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro \
 curl -X POST /api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro \
   -d '{"leagues":["E0"],"date_from":"2026-09-01","date_to":"2026-09-08"}'
 
-# 3. xG 回填(可选,提升 xg agent 质量)
-curl -X POST /api/v1/ingest/understat -d '{"league":"E0","season":2025}'
-curl -X POST /api/v1/ingest/understat -d '{"league":"E0","season":2026}'
+# 3. 积分榜 + 统计回填(xG/射门/控球,提升 stats/standings 专家质量)
+curl -X POST /api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro -d '{"task":"standings"}'
+curl -X POST /api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro -d '{"task":"stats","leagues":["E0"],"limit":300}'
+
+# 注:采集端点需管理员凭据(Cookie 会话或 X-API-Key 头),下同
 ```
 
 建议用外部 cron(如系统 crontab)定时触发,不引入 worker/redis。

docs/06-deployment.md

@@ -13,22 +13,45 @@
 cp .env.example .env
 # 编辑 .env: 填 LLM_API_KEY / BZZOIRO_KEY
 
-# 2. 启动(自动建表)
+# 2. 启动(自动执行数据库迁移)
 docker compose up -d --build
 
 # 3. 验证
 curl http://localhost:8000/health
 ```
 
-`docker-compose.yml` 仅 2 个服务:
+`docker-compose.yml` 包含 3 个服务:
 
 | 服务 | 端口 | 说明 |
 |---|---|---|
-| `postgres` | 5432 | PostgreSQL 16 |
-| `api` | 8000 | FastAPI 应用 |
+| `postgres` | 5433 | PostgreSQL 16 |
+| `api` | 8000 | FastAPI 应用(启动时自动执行 `alembic upgrade head`) |
+| `frontend` | 3000 | React 前端(多阶段构建,nginx 服务静态文件) |
 
 数据卷 `pgdata` 持久化数据库,重启不丢数据。
 
+> **注意**: `api` 服务启动时会先执行 `alembic upgrade head` 迁移数据库,再启动 uvicorn。
+> 容器内数据库连接自动使用 `postgres` 服务名(通过 compose `environment` 覆盖 `.env` 中的 `DB_HOST`)。
+
+## 生产上线检查清单
+
+公网上线前逐项勾选。第 1–4 项由 `src/core/security_check.py` 在 `APP_ENV=production`
+启动时**强制校验**,不满足直接拒绝启动(开发环境仅告警);管理鉴权另有请求期 fail-closed(503)。
+
+- [ ] **1. `APP_ENV=production`** — 安全校验、Cookie `Secure`、管理端点 fail-closed 均以它为总开关
+- [ ] **2. `SECRET_KEY` 强随机** — 用 `openssl rand -base64 32` 生成;禁止弱值/短值(弱值黑名单会拒绝启动,含把生成指令原样粘进去的情况)
+- [ ] **3. 管理鉴权至少其一** — `ADMIN_PASSWORD` 或 `ADMIN_API_KEY`(后台改过密码后以数据库哈希优先);两者皆空时管理接口 503
+- [ ] **4. 数据库强密码** — 禁止 `football:football` 等示例弱密码(启动校验会拒绝);compose 的 `POSTGRES_PASSWORD` 必填,缺失时容器拒绝启动
+- [ ] **5. HTTPS** — 由反代(Nginx/Caddy)终结 TLS;`APP_ENV=production` 下会话 Cookie 自动 `Secure`(且 HttpOnly + SameSite=Lax)
+- [ ] **6. 反代信任头** — `TRUST_PROXY_HEADERS=True`,且**仅可信反代可达 API**;反代需设置 `X-Forwarded-For`(`$proxy_add_x_forwarded_for`)与 `X-Real-IP`,否则限流/日志按反代 IP 计数
+- [ ] **7. 限流前置到网关** — 推荐 Nginx `limit_req`(配置见[安全与限流](#安全与限流));应用内限流与 KeyRing 为**单进程内存实现**,多 worker 各自独立计数会把实际配额放大 N 倍(启动时会打印一次性告警)
+- [ ] **8. uvicorn 单 worker** — compose/Dockerfile 默认单 worker,保持即可;需横向扩容时先在网关统一限流,再起多实例(每实例仍单 worker)
+
+> ⚠️ **多 worker 陷阱**:应用内限流(`_RateLimiter`)与 KeyRing 均为**进程内纯内存状态**,多 worker 部署(如 `uvicorn --workers 4`)时各进程**各自独立计数、互不共享**——实际限流配额会被放大 N 倍、KeyRing 限流状态也不同步。
+> 若确需多 worker,必须前置 Nginx/网关做**全局限流**(见[安全与限流](#安全与限流)),并设环境变量 `STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER=True`(见下)在启动期强制拒绝多 worker,避免静默配额漂移。
+- [ ] **9. 启动后健康检查** — `curl /health` 返回 200(存活);`curl /health/ready` 返回 200(就绪,校验数据库连通,不可达时 503)
+- [ ] **10. 数据库迁移** — compose/Dockerfile 启动命令已内置 `alembic upgrade head && uvicorn …`,升级镜像重启即自动迁移,无需手动执行
+
 ## 本地开发部署
 
 ```bash
@@ -63,7 +86,13 @@ cd frontend && npm install && npm run dev
 |---|---|---|---|
 | `APP_ENV` | ❌ | `development` | `production` / `development` |
 | `LOG_LEVEL` | ❌ | `INFO` | 日志级别 |
-| `DATABASE_URL` | ✅ | — | PostgreSQL 连接 URL |
+| `API_PORT` | ❌ | `8000` | API 服务端口映射 |
+| `FRONTEND_PORT` | ❌ | `3000` | 前端服务端口映射 |
+| `POSTGRES_USER` | ✅ | — | PostgreSQL 用户名 |
+| `POSTGRES_PASSWORD` | ✅ | — | PostgreSQL 密码 |
+| `POSTGRES_DB` | ❌ | `football` | PostgreSQL 数据库名 |
+| `POSTGRES_PORT` | ❌ | `5433` | PostgreSQL 端口映射 |
+| `DATABASE_URL` | ✅ | — | PostgreSQL 连接 URL(Docker 内会被覆盖) |
 | `LLM_PROVIDER` | ❌ | `openai` | 提供商名(仅标记) |
 | `LLM_API_KEY` | ✅ | — | API Key |
 | `LLM_BASE_URL` | ❌ | `https://api.openai.com/v1` | 接口地址(Ollama/Deepseek 用) |
@@ -71,10 +100,30 @@ cd frontend && npm install && npm run dev
 | `LLM_TIMEOUT` | ❌ | `60` | 单次调用超时(秒) |
 | `LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL` | ❌ | — | 专家模型(回落 `LLM_MODEL`) |
 | `LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL` | ❌ | — | 终裁模型(回落 `LLM_MODEL`) |
-| `BZZOIRO_KEY` | ✅ | — | bzzoiro 数据源 Key |
-| `BZZOIRO_BASE` | ❌ | `https://sports.bzzoiro.com/api/v2` | bzzoiro 接口地址 |
-| `API_FOOTBALL_KEY` | ❌ | — | 伤停数据源 Key |
+| `BZZOIRO_KEY` | ✅ | — | bzzoiro 数据源 Key(唯一数据源) |
 | `CORS_ORIGINS` | ❌ | `http://localhost:5173,...` | 允许的跨域来源 |
+| `STRICT_SINGLE_WORKER` | ❌ | `False` | `True` 时若以多 worker 启动则拒绝(防限流配额漂移) |
+| `SECRET_KEY` | ❌ | — | 加密主密钥(生产环境必填) |
+| `ADMIN_PASSWORD` | ❌ | — | 管理后台密码(留空=不启用) |
+| `ADMIN_API_KEY` | ❌ | — | 机器/脚本调用的 API Key |
+
+## 同站部署 vs 跨站 CSRF
+
+ Profeto 管理鉴权使用 **HttpOnly Cookie 会话**(登录后服务端写入),`allow_credentials=True` 的 CORS 配置允许浏览器跨域携带 Cookie——这也引入了 CSRF 面。部署拓扑决定风险等级:
+
+**同站部署(推荐)**: 前端与 API 同域(反代把 `/` 与 `/api` 都转发到同一后端,或同源端口)。
+  - 浏览器视为 **same-origin**,CORS 不触发;`SameSite=Lax` 会话 Cookie 天然阻断跨站请求携带。
+  - 风险最低。`CORS_ORIGINS` 可设为空或同域来源,仅作兜底。
+
+**跨站部署**: 前端与 API 不同域(如前端 `app.example.com`、API `api.example.com`,或开发时 `localhost:3000` → `localhost:8000`)。
+  - 必须把 API 域名列入 `CORS_ORIGINS`,且 `allow_credentials=True` 才能携带 Cookie。
+  - 此时任何被允许域下的页面都能构造带 Cookie 的请求 → **CSRF 面**:
+    - 状态变更接口(采集/回测/改密等写操作)要求**管理员 Cookie + 同域**,攻击者无法从第三方站点读取 Cookie,但可构造跨域表单/请求——`SameSite=Lax` 会阻断跨站 POST 表单提交(顶级导航 GET 仍放行),这是当前主要防线。
+    - `GET /api/v1/admin/*` 只读接口受 `SameSite=Lax` 下顶级导航可能被利用,但攻击者无法读取响应(CORS 不匹配时浏览器拦截)。
+  - **加固建议**:
+    1. 反代层加 `Origin`/`Referer` 校验,仅放行 `CORS_ORIGINS` 列表中的来源(即便 FastAPI CORS 已通过,反代校验是多一层纵深)。
+    2. 写操作要求自定义请求头(如 `X-Requested-With: XMLHttpRequest`),第三方站点无法在无预检下添加自定义头,天然阻断简单跨站 POST。
+    3. 生产强制 HTTPS(`APP_ENV=production` 下 Cookie 自动 `Secure`),防中间人窃 Cookie。
 
 ## LLM 提供商配置示例
 
@@ -127,9 +176,16 @@ alembic revision --autogenerate -m "描述"
 alembic revision -m "描述"
 ```
 
+**Docker Compose 自动迁移**: `api` 容器启动时会自动执行 `alembic upgrade head`,
+无需手动运行。本地开发时需手动执行迁移。
+
 已有迁移:
 - `0001_initial`: 初始 5 张表
 - `0002_agent_outputs`: predictions 加 `mode` + `agent_outputs`
+- `0003_injuries`: 增加 injuries 表
+- `0004_snapshot_and_constraints`: 增加约束
+- `0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance`: 增加时间语义
+- `0006-0012`: 后续 schema 调整、约束命名对齐、partial unique index 等
 
 ## 备份与恢复
 
@@ -143,6 +199,113 @@ cat backup.sql | docker exec -i profeto-postgres psql -U football football
 
 ## 监控
 
-- `/health`: 存活检查
-- 日志:容器 stdout(`docker compose logs -f api`)
-- 评估汇总:`GET /api/v1/eval/summary`(准确率/RMSAE/校准度)
+### 健康检查
+
+| 端点 | 含义 | HTTP 状态码 |
+|---|---|---|
+| `/health` | 存活检查(liveness) | 始终 200(进程在跑即活) |
+| `/health/ready` | 就绪检查(readiness) | DB 可达 200,不可达 **503** |
+
+### 探针配置
+
+#### Docker Compose
+
+`docker-compose.yml` 已为 `api` 服务配置 readiness:
+
+```yaml
+healthcheck:
+  test: ["CMD-SHELL", "curl -sf http://localhost:8000/health/ready || exit 1"]
+  interval: 10s
+  timeout: 5s
+  retries: 3
+  start_period: 10s
+```
+
+**要点**:必须指向 `/health/ready` 而非 `/health`——后者始终 200,在数据库故障时仍会接收流量,导致请求全部失败。
+
+#### Kubernetes
+
+```yaml
+livenessProbe:
+  httpGet:
+    path: /health
+    port: 8000
+  initialDelaySeconds: 5
+  periodSeconds: 15
+readinessProbe:
+  httpGet:
+    path: /health/ready
+    port: 8000
+  initialDelaySeconds: 10
+  periodSeconds: 10
+  failureThreshold: 3
+```
+
+**两探针必须区分**:
+- `livenessProbe` 用 `/health`:仅在进程死锁/崩溃时重启,避免误杀。
+- `readinessProbe` 用 `/health/ready`:DB 不可用时停止转发流量,恢复后自动切回。
+
+#### 验证
+
+```bash
+# 宿主机直接运行(经本地 8000 端口)
+python3 tests/test_health_ready.py
+```
+
+### 评估
+
+## 安全与限流
+
+### 内存限流(按进程)
+
+`/api/v1/predict` 与登录防爆破均使用**进程内内存**计数:
+
+| 机制 | 位置 | 局限 |
+|------|------|------|
+| `/predict` 限流 | `_RateLimiter`(内存) | 每 worker 独立计数,不共享 |
+| 登录防爆破 | `_fail_times`(内存) | 同上 |
+
+**多 worker 部署时**(如 `uvicorn --workers 4`),每进程各自计数,实际限额为 `N × 单进程限制`。
+
+### 公网部署建议
+
+```
+┌─────────┐     ┌──────────┐     ┌──────────┐
+│  Client │────▶│  Nginx   │────▶│  API     │
+│         │     │ 限流层    │     │ 内存限流  │
+└─────────┘     └──────────┘     └──────────┘
+```
+
+**推荐配置**:
+
+1. **Nginx 层限流**(第一道防线):
+   ```nginx
+   limit_req_zone $binary_remote_addr zone=predict:10m rate=10r/m;
+   location /api/v1/predict {
+       limit_req zone=predict burst=20 nodelay;
+       proxy_pass http://api:8000;
+   }
+   ```
+
+2. **TRUST_PROXY_HEADERS=True** 时必须由可信反代设置 `X-Forwarded-For`:
+   ```nginx
+   proxy_set_header X-Forwarded-For $proxy_add_x_forwarded_for;
+   ```
+   - 若为 `False`: 仅用 `request.client.host`,忽略 `X-Forwarded-For`,防伪造
+   - 若为 `True`: 解析 `X-Forwarded-For` 第一个 IP,反代后方可信
+
+3. **生产环境必须配置管理鉴权**:
+   ```bash
+   APP_ENV=production
+   REQUIRE_ADMIN_AUTH=True
+   ADMIN_PASSWORD=your_secure_password
+   ```
+   未配置时 `/admin` 等管理接口返回 503。
+
+### 参数调优
+
+| 参数 | 默认 | 说明 |
+|------|------|------|
+| `_predict_limiter.max_requests` | 10 | 每分钟每 IP 最大请求数 |
+| `_predict_limiter.window_seconds` | 60 | 滑动窗口时长 |
+| `ADMIN_SESSION_TTL_HOURS` | 168 | 管理会话有效期(天) |

docs/07-development.md

@@ -2,32 +2,70 @@
 
 ## 本地开发环境搭建
 
+### 锁定依赖策略
+
+项目使用 [pip-tools](https://github.com/jazzband/pip-tools) 锁定依赖版本,确保本地、CI、Docker 三端一致:
+
+| 文件 | 用途 | 生成命令 |
+|---|---|---|
+| `requirements.txt` | 生产依赖锁定(含 SHA256 哈希) | `pip-compile pyproject.toml --generate-hashes` |
+| `requirements-dev.txt` | 开发+CI 依赖锁定(含哈希) | `pip-compile pyproject.toml --extra dev --generate-hashes` |
+
+### 安装步骤
+
 ```bash
 # 1. 克隆并进入项目
 cd Profeto
 
-# 2. 安装依赖(含 dev)
-pip install -e ".[dev]"
+# 2. 创建虚拟环境
+python3.11 -m venv .venv
+source .venv/bin/activate
 
-# 3. 启动 PostgreSQL
+# 3. 安装 pip-tools(用于同步锁定依赖)
+pip install pip-tools
+
+# 4. 同步生产+开发依赖到当前环境(严格按 lock 文件版本,含哈希校验)
+pip-sync requirements-dev.txt
+
+# 5. 启动 PostgreSQL(或在 .env 配置外部库)
 docker run -d --name profeto-pg \
   -e POSTGRES_USER=football -e POSTGRES_PASSWORD=football -e POSTGRES_DB=football \
   -p 5432:5432 postgres:16-alpine
 
-# 4. 配置环境变量
+# 6. 配置环境变量
 cp .env.example .env
 # 编辑 .env 填 LLM_API_KEY / BZZOIRO_KEY
 
-# 5. 建表
+# 7. 建表
 alembic upgrade head
 
-# 6. 启动 API(热重载)
+# 8. 启动 API(热重载)
 uvicorn src.api.app:app --reload
 
-# 7. 启动前端(另一个终端)
+# 9. 启动前端(另一个终端)
 cd frontend && npm install && npm run dev
 ```
 
+> **注意**:不要用 `pip install -e ".[dev]"` 直接安装——它按 pyproject 下界约束解析,版本可能与 lock 文件不一致。统一用 `pip-sync requirements-dev.txt` 保证三端一致。
+
+### 变更依赖时
+
+```bash
+# 1. 编辑 pyproject.toml(调整依赖或版本约束)
+
+# 2. 重新生成 lock 文件(含哈希)
+pip-compile pyproject.toml --generate-hashes --output-file=requirements.txt --index-url=https://pypi.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn/simple
+pip-compile pyproject.toml --extra dev --generate-hashes --output-file=requirements-dev.txt --index-url=https://pypi.tuna.tsinghua.edu.cn/simple
+
+# 3. 同步到本地环境
+pip-sync requirements-dev.txt
+
+# 4. 提交 lock 文件
+git add requirements.txt requirements-dev.txt pyproject.toml
+```
+
+> **禁止无故大升级主版本依赖**:仅升级真正需要的包,并重新跑全量测试。
+
 ## 项目结构
 
 ```
@@ -35,27 +73,34 @@ Profeto/
 ├── src/                        # 后端源码
 │   ├── api/
 │   │   ├── routes/             # FastAPI 路由
-│   │   │   ├── leagues.py      # 联赛/比赛查询
+│   │   │   ├── matches.py      # 联赛/比赛查询
 │   │   │   ├── predict.py      # 预测入口
 │   │   │   ├── ingest.py       # 数据采集
-│   │   │   └── eval.py         # 评估回填
+│   │   │   ├── eval.py         # 评估回填
+│   │   │   └── backtest.py     # 历史回测
+│   │   ├── deps.py             # 依赖:管理接口鉴权(X-API-Key)
 │   │   ├── schemas.py          # Pydantic 模型
 │   │   └── app.py              # FastAPI 工厂
 │   ├── db/
 │   │   ├── base.py             # SQLAlchemy async engine + session
-│   │   └── models.py           # 5 张表 ORM
+│   │   ├── models.py           # 12 张表 ORM
+│   │   ├── repositories.py     # 仓储层(查询封装)
+│   │   └── unit_of_work.py     # 事务边界
 │   ├── data/
-│   │   ├── bzzoiro.py          # bzzoiro 采集 + 入库
-│   │   ├── understat.py        # understat xG 回填
-│   │   ├── injuries.py         # 伤停采集
+│   │   ├── bzzoiro.py          # bzzoiro 采集 + 入库(唯一数据源)
 │   │   ├── normalize.py        # 数据清洗契约
 │   │   ├── team_names.py       # 队名归一化映射
+│   │   ├── team_names_zh.py    # 队名中文名映射
+│   │   ├── sources.py          # 数据源注册表
+│   │   ├── key_ring.py         # 数据源 Key 读取(DB 设置优先于 env)
 │   │   └── config.py           # 联赛映射常量
 │   ├── llm/
 │   │   ├── provider.py         # LLM 提供商抽象(OpenAI-compatible)
 │   │   ├── context_builder.py  # 数据切片 + 拼接
 │   │   ├── predict.py          # 预测入口(单/多模式分派)
 │   │   ├── eval.py             # 评估统计
+│   │   ├── validation.py       # LLM 输出严格校验
+│   │   ├── backtest.py         # 回测执行
 │   │   ├── agents/
 │   │   │   ├── base.py         # AgentSpec + run_agent
 │   │   │   └── orchestrator.py # 多 agent 编排
@@ -65,16 +110,26 @@ Profeto/
 │   │           ├── form_v1.md
 │   │           ├── stats_v1.md
 │   │           ├── home_away_v1.md
-│   │           ├── injuries_v1.md
+│   │           ├── standings_v1.md
 │   │           ├── h2h_v1.md
 │   │           └── aggregator_v1.md
 │   └── core/
-│       └── config.py           # pydantic-settings 配置
+│       ├── config.py           # pydantic-settings 配置
+│       ├── http_client.py      # 共享 httpx 客户端
+│       ├── crypto.py           # 对称加密(Fernet)与密码哈希
+│       ├── log_buffer.py       # 内存日志缓冲(admin「系统日志」页)
+│       ├── runtime_config.py   # 运行时配置(数据库优先,回落 .env)
+│       ├── scheduler.py        # 定时任务调度器(cron 触发采集)
+│       └── security_check.py   # 生产启动安全校验(缺配置拒绝启动)
 ├── frontend/                   # React 单页前端
 ├── alembic/                    # 数据库迁移
 │   └── versions/
 │       ├── 0001_initial.py
-│       └── 0002_agent_outputs.py
+│       ├── 0002_agent_outputs.py
+│       ├── 0003_injuries.py
+│       ├── 0004_snapshot_and_constraints.py
+│       ├── 0005_prediction_status_and_stats_provenance.py
+│       └── 0006_schema_model_drift_cleanup.py
 ├── tests/                      # 测试
 │   ├── test_core.py            # 核心逻辑测试
 │   └── test_agents.py          # 多 agent 测试
@@ -118,7 +173,7 @@ class MockProvider:
         return LLMResponse(
             content="{}",
             parsed={"data_sufficiency": "high", "analysis": "ok",
-                    "home_edge": 0.5, "confidence": 0.8,
+                    "home_edge": 0.5, "subjective_confidence": 0.8,
                     "key_evidence": ["证据"]},
             prompt_tokens=10, completion_tokens=5, latency_ms=100,
         )
@@ -143,7 +198,7 @@ cp src/llm/prompts/agents/h2h_v1.md src/llm/prompts/agents/h2h_v2.md
 
 ### 3. 新增数据源
 
-1. 在 `src/data/` 写采集模块(参考 `understat.py`)
+1. 在 `src/data/` 写采集模块(参考 `bzzoiro.py`)
 2. 在 `normalize.py` 加清洗函数
 3. 在 `context_builder.py` 加切片函数
 4. 在 `api/routes/ingest.py` 加端点

docs/08-injuries-data-gap.md

@@ -1,3 +1,9 @@
+> ⚠️ **历史文档(已过时)**:伤停(injuries)数据源与 api-football 集成已移除,
+> 数据源收敛为 bzzoiro 唯一来源。本文仅作历史决策记录保留,
+> 现状请见 [05-data.md](05-data.md) 与 [01-architecture.md](01-architecture.md)。
+
+---
+
 """检查 injuries 数据源 api-football 的响应结构。"""
 API_FOOTBALL_INJURY_RESPONSE_EXAMPLE = """
 {

docs/AGENTS.md

@@ -1,128 +0,0 @@
-# 多 Agent 协同架构
-
-本项目采用 4 个专业 Agent 协同工作,各司其职。
-
-## Agent 职责
-
-### 🗄️ 数据库 Agent (DBA)
-**所有权:** `src/db/`, `alembic/`, 数据模型
-
-职责:
-- 数据库 schema 设计与迁移 (Alembic)
-- ORM 模型定义与关系
-- 查询性能优化与索引
-- 数据完整性约束
-- 数据源入库逻辑
-
-边界:
-- 不写业务路由
-- 不写前端代码
-- 对外暴露稳定的模型接口
-
----
-
-### 🖥️ 前端 Agent (FE)
-**所有权:** `frontend/`
-
-职责:
-- React 组件与页面
-- 用户界面与交互
-- 状态管理
-- API 调用与数据展示
-- 样式 (Tailwind)
-
-边界:
-- 不直接操作数据库
-- 不写后端业务逻辑
-- 通过 REST API 与后端通信
-
----
-
-### ⚙️ 后端 Agent (BE)
-**所有权:** `src/api/`, `src/core/`, `src/llm/`, `src/data/`
-
-职责:
-- API 路由与业务逻辑
-- LLM 预测管线 (上下文构建 → 调用 → 存储)
-- 数据采集与清洗
-- 定时任务调度
-- 多 Agent 编排 (LLM 专家系统)
-
-边界:
-- 不写前端展示
-- 不直接配置部署环境
-- 对外暴露 REST API
-
----
-
-### 🚀 部署 Agent (Ops)
-**所有权:** `Dockerfile`, `docker-compose.yml`, `.env.example`, 配置
-
-职责:
-- 容器化与编排
-- 环境变量与配置管理
-- 服务健康检查
-- 日志与监控
-- 备份策略
-
-边界:
-- 不写应用代码
-- 不修改业务逻辑
-- 通过配置文件影响行为
-
----
-
-## 协作接口
-
-### FE ↔ BE
-```
-REST API (OpenAPI 契约)
-- GET  /api/v1/matches
-- POST /api/v1/predict
-- GET  /api/v1/predictions
-- POST /api/v1/eval/settle
-- GET  /api/v1/backtest
-```
-
-### BE ↔ DBA
-```
-SQLAlchemy 模型接口
-- Match, Team, League, MatchStats, Prediction, Injury
-- AsyncSession 依赖注入
-```
-
-### BE ↔ LLM
-```
-LLMProvider 抽象
-- OpenAI / Deepseek / Ollama / 任意兼容网关
-- JSON mode 结构化输出
-```
-
-### Ops ↔ 所有
-```
-环境变量 + docker-compose
-- .env 配置注入
-- 服务发现 (localhost:8000 / 5432)
-```
-
----
-
-## 工作流程
-
-```
-1. 用户/编排者 发起任务
-2. 拆解任务分配给对应 Agent
-3. Agent 在各自所有权范围内工作
-4. 跨 Agent 变更通过接口契约协调
-5. 集成测试验证协作
-```
-
-## 变更协调规则
-
-| 变更类型 | 需要协调 |
-|---|---|
-| 新增 API 字段 | BE + FE |
-| 修改数据模型 | DBA + BE + FE |
-| 新增数据源 | DBA + BE |
-| 修改部署配置 | Ops + 所有 |
-| 修改 LLM Prompt | BE (独立) |

docs/README.md

@@ -6,7 +6,7 @@
 | [02-快速开始](02-quickstart.md) | 安装、启动、首次跑通全流程 |
 | [03-API 参考](03-api.md) | 全部 12 个端点、请求/响应示例、curl 全流程 |
 | [04-多 Agent 预测](04-agents.md) | 5 专家 + 终裁架构、执行语义、输出契约、prompt 版本化、如何新增 agent |
-| [05-数据层与数据库](05-data.md) | 三数据源、清洗契约、5 张表 schema、入库语义、采集建议 |
+| [05-数据层与数据库](05-data.md) | 三数据源、清洗契约、6 张表 schema、入库语义、采集建议 |
 | [06-部署](06-deployment.md) | Docker Compose、本地部署、环境变量、LLM 提供商配置、迁移、备份 |
 | [07-开发指南](07-development.md) | 项目结构、测试、常见开发任务(prompt/agent/数据源/联赛)、前端开发 |
 

docs/agents/be.md

@@ -1,61 +0,0 @@
-# 后端 Agent (BE)
-
-你是 Profeto 项目的后端 Agent，负责所有业务逻辑和 API。
-
-## 所有权
-- `src/api/` — FastAPI 路由、应用工厂、schemas
-- `src/core/` — 配置、HTTP 客户端、重试工具
-- `src/llm/` — LLM 预测核心（provider、上下文构建、多 Agent 编排、评估、回测）
-- `src/data/` — 数据采集源、规范化、数据源协议
-
-## 当前 API 路由
-
-| 方法 | 路径 | 作用 |
-|---|---|---|
-| GET | `/api/v1/matches` | 比赛查询（筛选/分页） |
-| GET | `/api/v1/matches/{id}` | 单场详情 |
-| GET | `/api/v1/leagues` | 联赛列表 |
-| POST | `/api/v1/predict` | LLM 预测（single/multi） |
-| GET | `/api/v1/predictions` | 预测历史 |
-| GET | `/api/v1/predictions/{id}` | 单条预测详情 |
-| POST | `/api/v1/ingest/bzzoiro` | 采集比分/统计 |
-| POST | `/api/v1/ingest/understat` | 回填 xG |
-| POST | `/api/v1/ingest/injuries` | 采集伤停 |
-| POST | `/api/v1/eval/settle` | 回填实际结果 |
-| GET | `/api/v1/eval/summary` | 准确率汇总 |
-| POST | `/api/v1/backtest` | 回测 |
-
-## 核心模块
-
-### LLM 预测管线
-```
-match_id → build_context (数据切片) → LLM 调用 → 解析 → 存储
-```
-
-### 多 Agent 编排 (LLM 专家系统)
-```
-5 专家 (form/stats/home_away/injuries/h2h) → 终裁 → 最终预测
-```
-
-### 数据源协议
-```python
-class DataSource(Protocol):
-    name: str
-    async def ingest(db, **kwargs) -> dict: ...
-```
-
-## 设计原则
-- RESTful API，OpenAPI 文档自动生成
-- 异步优先（asyncpg + async httpx）
-- 错误分层（404/502/500）
-- 预测结果持久化
-
-## 对外接口
-- 为 FE Agent 提供稳定 REST API
-- 使用 DBA Agent 提供的 ORM 模型
-- 遵循 Ops Agent 定义的环境配置
-
-## 不做
-- 不写前端展示
-- 不修改 schema（通过 DBA）
-- 不配置部署（通过 Ops）

docs/agents/dba.md

@@ -1,36 +0,0 @@
-# 数据库 Agent (DBA)
-
-你是 Profeto 项目的数据库 Agent，负责所有数据层工作。
-
-## 所有权
-- `src/db/` — SQLAlchemy 引擎、会话、Base
-- `src/db/models.py` — 所有 ORM 模型
-- `alembic/` — 数据库迁移脚本
-- `src/data/normalize.py` — 数据规范化契约
-- `src/data/match_lookup.py` — 比赛匹配辅助函数
-
-## 当前 Schema (5 表 + 1 新增)
-
-```
-leagues (id, code, name, country)
-teams (id, name, name_zh, team_type)
-matches (id, league_id, season, home_team_id, away_team_id, match_date, match_status, goals..., stats...)
-match_stats (match_id PK, xg, shots, corners, possession, cards...)
-predictions (id, match_id, provider, model, prompt_version, tokens, pred_1x2, confidence, raw_response, mode, agent_outputs, actual_..., settled)
-injuries (id, player_id, player_name, team_id, fixture_id, injury_type, reason, dates...)
-```
-
-## 设计原则
-- 所有字段可空性明确（业务可空 vs 必须 NOT NULL）
-- 外键级联删除合理（match 删除 → stats/predictions 级联）
-- 索引覆盖高频查询（按日期、按球队、按联赛）
-- 迁移脚本幂等
-
-## 对外接口
-- 提供稳定的 ORM 模型供 BE Agent 使用
-- 变更模型时通知 BE Agent 更新查询
-
-## 不做
-- 不写 API 路由
-- 不写前端代码
-- 不修改业务逻辑

docs/agents/fe.md

@@ -1,46 +0,0 @@
-# 前端 Agent (FE)
-
-你是 Profeto 项目的前端 Agent，负责所有用户界面工作。
-
-## 所有权
-- `frontend/` — 整个前端项目
-- React + TypeScript + Vite + Tailwind CSS
-
-## 当前结构
-```
-frontend/src/
-├── main.tsx          # 入口
-├── App.tsx           # 根组件 + ErrorBoundary
-├── index.css         # 全局样式
-├── components/
-│   └── ErrorBoundary.tsx
-└── pages/
-    └── Matches.tsx   # 当前唯一页面（比赛列表 + 预测）
-```
-
-## 当前 API 契约（来自 BE Agent）
-
-| 端点 | 用途 |
-|---|---|
-| `GET /api/v1/matches?league=&status=&limit=` | 比赛列表 |
-| `POST /api/v1/predict` body: `{match_id, mode}` | 触发预测 |
-| `GET /api/v1/predictions?match_id=&limit=` | 预测历史 |
-| `POST /api/v1/backtest` | 回测（管理用） |
-| `POST /api/v1/eval/settle` | 回填结果（管理用） |
-| `GET /api/v1/eval/summary` | 准确率统计 |
-
-## 设计原则
-- 单页应用，预测面板为核心
-- 展示为主，控制操作最小化
-- 响应式（移动端优先）
-- 加载/错误/空状态完整
-
-## 对外依赖
-- 通过 REST API 与 BE Agent 通信
-- 不直接访问数据库
-- 不修改 API 契约（需与 BE 协商）
-
-## 不做
-- 不写后端业务逻辑
-- 不操作数据库
-- 不修改部署配置

docs/agents/ops.md

@@ -1,47 +0,0 @@
-# 部署 Agent (Ops)
-
-你是 Profeto 项目的部署 Agent，负责基础设施和运维。
-
-## 所有权
-- `Dockerfile` — API 服务镜像
-- `docker-compose.yml` — 服务编排
-- `.env.example` — 环境变量模板
-- `pyproject.toml` — Python 依赖声明
-
-## 当前服务架构
-
-```yaml
-services:
-  postgres:  # PostgreSQL 16, port 5432
-  api:       # FastAPI, port 8000, depends on postgres
-```
-
-## 环境变量
-
-| 变量 | 说明 |
-|---|---|
-| `DATABASE_URL` | PostgreSQL 连接 |
-| `LLM_PROVIDER` | 提供商标识 |
-| `LLM_API_KEY` | API 密钥 |
-| `LLM_BASE_URL` | API 地址 |
-| `LLM_MODEL` | 模型名 |
-| `LLM_SPECIALIST_MODEL` | 专家模型（多 Agent 模式） |
-| `LLM_AGGREGATOR_MODEL` | 终裁模型 |
-| `BZZOIRO_KEY` | bzzoiro 数据源密钥 |
-| `API_FOOTBALL_KEY` | api-football 密钥 |
-| `CORS_ORIGINS` | 跨域来源 |
-
-## 设计原则
-- 配置与代码分离（.env 不入库）
-- 健康检查（postgres + api）
-- 数据持久化（postgres volume）
-- 最小镜像（python:3.11-slim）
-
-## 对外接口
-- 为 BE Agent 提供运行环境
-- 为 FE Agent 提供反向代理目标（同端口或 nginx）
-
-## 不做
-- 不写应用代码
-- 不修改业务逻辑
-- 不变更 API 契约

frontend/.dockerignore

@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+# 前端构建时不需要的文件
+node_modules
+dist
+.git
+*.log

frontend/Dockerfile.frontend

@@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
+# Fix 4: 前端多阶段构建 —— 构建静态文件 + nginx 服务
+FROM node:20-alpine AS builder
+
+WORKDIR /app
+
+# 安装依赖
+COPY package.json package-lock.json ./
+RUN npm ci
+
+# 构建
+COPY . .
+RUN npm run build
+
+# 生产阶段: nginx 服务静态文件
+FROM nginx:alpine
+
+# 从 builder 阶段复制构建产物
+COPY --from=builder /app/dist /usr/share/nginx/html
+
+# nginx 配置(在 compose 中通过 volume 挂载,此处仅作备用)
+COPY nginx.conf /etc/nginx/conf.d/default.conf
+
+EXPOSE 80
+
+CMD ["nginx", "-g", "daemon off;"]

frontend/nginx.conf

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+server {
+    listen 80;
+    server_name localhost;
+
+    # Serve static files
+    root /usr/share/nginx/html;
+    index index.html;
+
+    # API proxy
+    location /api/ {
+        proxy_pass http://api:8000/api/;
+        proxy_http_version 1.1;
+        # LLM 多专家预测/回测耗时长(可达数分钟),默认 60s 会掐断请求返回 504
+        proxy_connect_timeout 10s;
+        proxy_send_timeout 60s;
+        proxy_read_timeout 300s;
+        proxy_set_header Upgrade $http_upgrade;
+        proxy_set_header Connection 'upgrade';
+        proxy_set_header Host $host;
+        proxy_set_header X-Real-IP $remote_addr;
+        proxy_set_header X-Forwarded-For $proxy_add_x_forwarded_for;
+        proxy_set_header X-Forwarded-Proto $scheme;
+        proxy_cache_bypass $http_upgrade;
+    }
+
+    # Health check proxy
+    location /health {
+        proxy_pass http://api:8000/health;
+        proxy_http_version 1.1;
+        proxy_set_header Host $host;
+    }
+
+    # SPA routing - serve index.html for all routes
+    location / {
+        try_files $uri $uri/ /index.html;
+    }
+
+    # Gzip compression
+    gzip on;
+    gzip_types text/plain text/css application/json application/javascript text/xml application/xml application/xml+rss text/javascript;
+    gzip_min_length 1000;
+}

frontend/package-lock.json

@@ -9,7 +9,8 @@
       "version": "0.1.0",
       "dependencies": {
         "react": "^18.3.1",
-        "react-dom": "^18.3.1"
+        "react-dom": "^18.3.1",
+        "react-router-dom": "^6.30.6"
       },
       "devDependencies": {
         "@types/react": "^18.3.3",
@@ -766,9 +767,6 @@
         "x64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "glibc"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -816,6 +814,15 @@
         "node": ">= 8"
       }
     },
+    "node_modules/@remix-run/router": {
+      "version": "1.23.4",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@remix-run/router/-/router-1.23.4.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-q7j5geK7xs3UJSdm9/iytUNclBnLmYx1EnSeCFXHPeutdqgIMeFeHtUZgS3EhlKxdBEAu8OwtJCwmLrEzpSs7Q==",
+      "license": "MIT",
+      "engines": {
+        "node": ">=14.0.0"
+      }
+    },
     "node_modules/@rolldown/pluginutils": {
       "version": "1.0.0-beta.27",
       "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/@rolldown/pluginutils/-/pluginutils-1.0.0-beta.27.tgz",
@@ -915,9 +922,6 @@
         "arm"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "glibc"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -932,9 +936,6 @@
         "arm"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "musl"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -949,9 +950,6 @@
         "arm64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "glibc"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -966,9 +964,6 @@
         "arm64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "musl"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -983,9 +978,6 @@
         "loong64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "glibc"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -1000,9 +992,6 @@
         "loong64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "musl"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -1017,9 +1006,6 @@
         "ppc64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "glibc"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -1034,9 +1020,6 @@
         "ppc64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "musl"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -1051,9 +1034,6 @@
         "riscv64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "glibc"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -1068,9 +1048,6 @@
         "riscv64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "musl"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -1085,9 +1062,6 @@
         "s390x"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "glibc"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -1102,9 +1076,6 @@
         "x64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "glibc"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -1119,9 +1090,6 @@
         "x64"
       ],
       "dev": true,
-      "libc": [
-        "musl"
-      ],
       "license": "MIT",
       "optional": true,
       "os": [
@@ -2287,6 +2255,38 @@
         "node": ">=0.10.0"
       }
     },
+    "node_modules/react-router": {
+      "version": "6.30.6",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/react-router/-/react-router-6.30.6.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-5HfK7k5im7LTOB0EqCQmfvy4C13G92Ssj1VTmouTK3AJvyjKTnFuCV0vcMAD/JS+JC4DvDIBRrlAeJIFjh5VWg==",
+      "license": "MIT",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@remix-run/router": "1.23.4"
+      },
+      "engines": {
+        "node": ">=14.0.0"
+      },
+      "peerDependencies": {
+        "react": ">=16.8"
+      }
+    },
+    "node_modules/react-router-dom": {
+      "version": "6.30.6",
+      "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/react-router-dom/-/react-router-dom-6.30.6.tgz",
+      "integrity": "sha512-0RHKZz7wwffvkU+2MFVT2NnjK44ssLEV+m0CAJaS2Ksmorrwj7WxH00jO0SOCW26/tINUnJHToXblDs33I38YQ==",
+      "license": "MIT",
+      "dependencies": {
+        "@remix-run/router": "1.23.4",
+        "react-router": "6.30.6"
+      },
+      "engines": {
+        "node": ">=14.0.0"
+      },
+      "peerDependencies": {
+        "react": ">=16.8",
+        "react-dom": ">=16.8"
+      }
+    },
     "node_modules/read-cache": {
       "version": "1.0.2",
       "resolved": "https://registry.npmjs.org/read-cache/-/read-cache-1.0.2.tgz",

frontend/package.json

@@ -10,7 +10,8 @@
   },
   "dependencies": {
     "react": "^18.3.1",
-    "react-dom": "^18.3.1"
+    "react-dom": "^18.3.1",
+    "react-router-dom": "^6.30.6"
   },
   "devDependencies": {
     "@types/react": "^18.3.3",

frontend/postcss.config.js

@@ -1,5 +1,6 @@
 export default {
-  content: ['./index.html', './src/**/*.{ts,tsx}'],
-  theme: { extend: {} },
-  plugins: [],
+  plugins: {
+    tailwindcss: {},
+    autoprefixer: {},
+  },
 }

frontend/src/App.tsx

@@ -1,18 +1,135 @@
+/**
+ * 主应用入口
+ *
+ * 页面结构:
+ * - /         → 先知主站(报纸风赛程 + 预测),报头含「评估」「管理」入口
+ * - /admin/*  → 管理后台(鉴权门禁,未登录引导登录)
+ *
+ * 导航策略:
+ * - 首页报头放「评估」「管理」入口(极简,不另加导航条)
+ * - 管理后台由 AdminLayout 侧边栏处理所有管理页导航
+ * - 未登录访问管理 → AdminLayout 门禁 → 登录页(不静默失败)
+ */
+
+import { BrowserRouter, Routes, Route, Navigate, Link } from 'react-router-dom'
 import { ErrorBoundary } from './components/ErrorBoundary'
 import Matches from './pages/Matches'
+import Standings from './pages/Standings'
+import { adminRoutes } from './admin/routes'
+
+/** 报眉日期行 */
+function dateLine(): string {
+  return new Date().toLocaleDateString('zh-CN', {
+    year: 'numeric',
+    month: 'long',
+    day: 'numeric',
+    weekday: 'long',
+  })
+}
+
+function StandingsLayout({ children }: { children: React.ReactNode }) {
+  return (
+    <div className="min-h-screen bg-paper-50">
+      <header className="masthead-rule">
+        <div className="mx-auto max-w-5xl px-5 sm:px-8">
+          <div className="border-b border-ink-900 py-5 text-center sm:py-6">
+            <h1 className="font-brush text-5xl text-ink-900 sm:text-6xl">
+              先知
+            </h1>
+          </div>
+          <div className="flex items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 py-2 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+            <span>{dateLine()}</span>
+            <nav className="flex items-center gap-4" aria-label="页面导航">
+              <Link to="/" className="text-ink-500 hover:text-press transition-colors">
+                比赛 / 预测
+              </Link>
+              <Link to="/admin/eval" className="text-ink-500 hover:text-press transition-colors">
+                评估
+              </Link>
+              <Link to="/admin" className="flex items-center gap-1 text-ink-500 hover:text-press transition-colors">
+                <span aria-hidden="true">⚙</span> 管理
+              </Link>
+            </nav>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </header>
+
+      <main className="mx-auto max-w-5xl px-5 py-6 sm:px-8 sm:py-8">
+        {children}
+      </main>
+
+      <footer className="mx-auto max-w-5xl px-5 pb-10 sm:px-8">
+        <div className="border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-center text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-400">
+          数据由 bzzoiro 提供 · 仅供研究参考
+        </div>
+      </footer>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+function HomePage() {
+  return (
+    <div className="min-h-screen bg-paper-50">
+      {/* ── 报头:粗线 + 居中刊名 + 日期与分区链接 ── */}
+      <header className="masthead-rule">
+        <div className="mx-auto max-w-5xl px-5 sm:px-8">
+          <div className="border-b border-ink-900 py-5 text-center sm:py-6">
+            <h1 className="font-brush text-5xl text-ink-900 sm:text-6xl">
+              先知
+            </h1>
+          </div>
+          <div className="flex items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 py-2 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+            <span>{dateLine()}</span>
+            <nav className="flex items-center gap-4" aria-label="页面导航">
+              <Link to="/standings" className="text-ink-500 hover:text-press transition-colors">
+                积分榜
+              </Link>
+              <Link to="/admin/eval" className="text-ink-500 hover:text-press transition-colors">
+                评估
+              </Link>
+              <Link to="/admin" className="flex items-center gap-1 text-ink-500 hover:text-press transition-colors">
+                <span aria-hidden="true">⚙</span> 管理
+              </Link>
+            </nav>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </header>
+
+      <main className="mx-auto max-w-5xl px-5 py-6 sm:px-8 sm:py-8">
+        <Matches />
+      </main>
+
+      <footer className="mx-auto max-w-5xl px-5 pb-10 sm:px-8">
+        <div className="border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-center text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-400">
+          预测结果由大语言模型生成 · 仅供研究参考 · 不构成任何投注建议
+        </div>
+      </footer>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
 
 export default function App() {
   return (
     <ErrorBoundary>
-      <div className="min-h-screen bg-gray-50">
-        <header className="bg-white border-b px-6 py-3 flex items-center justify-between">
-          <h1 className="text-xl font-bold text-blue-700">⚽ 先知 Profeto</h1>
-          <span className="text-sm text-gray-500">足球 LLM 预测服务</span>
-        </header>
-        <main className="max-w-5xl mx-auto p-6">
-          <Matches />
-        </main>
-      </div>
+      <BrowserRouter>
+        <Routes>
+          <Route path="/" element={<HomePage />} />
+          <Route path="/standings" element={<StandingsLayout><Standings /></StandingsLayout>} />
+          {adminRoutes.map(route => (
+            <Route key={route.path} path={route.path} element={route.element}>
+              {route.children.map(child => (
+                <Route
+                  key={child.path ?? 'index'}
+                  index={child.index}
+                  path={child.path}
+                  element={child.element}
+                />
+              ))}
+            </Route>
+          ))}
+          <Route path="*" element={<Navigate to="/" replace />} />
+        </Routes>
+      </BrowserRouter>
     </ErrorBoundary>
   )
 }

frontend/src/admin/AdminApp.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,15 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 应用入口
+ *
+ * 独立的 Admin 应用入口,用于 createBrowserRouter。
+ * 也可通过 createHashRouter 直接挂载为独立应用。
+ */
+
+import { createBrowserRouter, RouterProvider } from 'react-router-dom'
+import { adminRoutes } from './routes'
+
+const router = createBrowserRouter(adminRoutes)
+
+export default function AdminApp() {
+  return <RouterProvider router={router} />
+}

frontend/src/admin/AdminLayout.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,329 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 布局组件(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 与前台同一套纸色语言:报头式侧栏 + 报眉顶栏 + 细线分区。
+ * 响应式: 移动端汉堡菜单 + 抽屉侧栏,桌面端固定侧栏。
+ */
+
+import { useState, useEffect, useCallback } from 'react'
+import { NavLink, Outlet, useLocation } from 'react-router-dom'
+import { fetchAuthState, logout, UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT } from './api'
+import { fetchHealth } from './dal'
+import { COMMAND_PALETTE_PAGES, ROUTE_LABELS, NAV_SECTIONS } from './nav'
+import Login from './Login'
+import { useCommandPalette, CommandPalette } from './useCommandPalette'
+
+// 线条风格 SVG 图标组件
+function Icon({ name }: { name: string }) {
+  const common = 'nav-icon'
+  switch (name) {
+    case 'collection':
+      return (
+        <svg className={common} viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round">
+          <path d="M21 16V8a2 2 0 0 0-1-1.73l-7-4a2 2 0 0 0-2 0l-7 4A2 2 0 0 0 3 8v8a2 2 0 0 0 1 1.73l7 4a2 2 0 0 0 2 0l7-4A2 2 0 0 0 21 16z" />
+          <polyline points="3.27 6.96 12 12.01 20.73 6.96" />
+          <line x1="12" y1="22.08" x2="12" y2="12" />
+        </svg>
+      )
+    case 'chart':
+      return (
+        <svg className={common} viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round">
+          <line x1="18" y1="20" x2="18" y2="10" />
+          <line x1="12" y1="20" x2="12" y2="4" />
+          <line x1="6" y1="20" x2="6" y2="14" />
+        </svg>
+      )
+    case 'target':
+      return (
+        <svg className={common} viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round">
+          <circle cx="12" cy="12" r="10" />
+          <circle cx="12" cy="12" r="6" />
+          <circle cx="12" cy="12" r="2" />
+        </svg>
+      )
+    case 'repeat':
+      return (
+        <svg className={common} viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round">
+          <polyline points="17 1 21 5 17 9" />
+          <path d="M3 11V9a4 4 0 0 1 4-4h14" />
+          <polyline points="7 23 3 19 7 15" />
+          <path d="M21 13v2a4 4 0 0 1-4 4H3" />
+        </svg>
+      )
+    case 'eval':
+      return (
+        <svg className={common} viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round">
+          <path d="M14 2H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v16a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V8z" />
+          <polyline points="14 2 14 8 20 8" />
+          <line x1="16" y1="13" x2="8" y2="13" />
+          <line x1="16" y1="17" x2="8" y2="17" />
+          <polyline points="10 9 9 9 8 9" />
+        </svg>
+      )
+    case 'monitor':
+      return (
+        <svg className={common} viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round">
+          <rect x="2" y="3" width="20" height="14" rx="2" ry="2" />
+          <line x1="8" y1="21" x2="16" y2="21" />
+          <line x1="12" y1="17" x2="12" y2="21" />
+        </svg>
+      )
+    case 'settings':
+      return (
+        <svg className={common} viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round">
+          <circle cx="12" cy="12" r="3" />
+          <path d="M19.4 15a1.65 1.65 0 0 0 .33 1.82l.06.06a2 2 0 0 1 0 2.83 2 2 0 0 1-2.83 0l-.06-.06a1.65 1.65 0 0 0-1.82-.33 1.65 1.65 0 0 0-1 1.51V21a2 2 0 0 1-4 0v-.09A1.65 1.65 0 0 0 9 19.4a1.65 1.65 0 0 0-1.82.33l-.06.06a2 2 0 0 1-2.83 0 2 2 0 0 1 0-2.83l.06-.06A1.65 1.65 0 0 0 4.68 15a1.65 1.65 0 0 0-1.51-1H3a2 2 0 0 1 0-4h.09A1.65 1.65 0 0 0 4.6 9a1.65 1.65 0 0 0-.33-1.82l-.06-.06a2 2 0 0 1 0-2.83 2 2 0 0 1 2.83 0l.06.06A1.65 1.65 0 0 0 9 4.68 1.65 1.65 0 0 0 10 3.17V3a2 2 0 0 1 4 0v.09a1.65 1.65 0 0 0 1 1.51 1.65 1.65 0 0 0 1.82-.33l.06-.06a2 2 0 0 1 2.83 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 2.83l-.06.06A1.65 1.65 0 0 0 19.4 9a1.65 1.65 0 0 0 1.51 1H21a2 2 0 0 1 0-4h-.09a1.65 1.65 0 0 0-1.51 1z" />
+        </svg>
+      )
+    case 'logs':
+      return (
+        <svg className={common} viewBox="0 0 24 24" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round">
+          <path d="M14 2H6a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v16a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h12a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V8z" />
+          <polyline points="14 2 14 8 20 8" />
+          <line x1="8" y1="13" x2="16" y2="13" />
+          <line x1="8" y1="17" x2="16" y2="17" />
+        </svg>
+      )
+    default:
+      return null
+  }
+}
+
+// D6: 导航三视图(侧栏/命令面板/面包屑)统一由 admin/nav.ts 的 NAV_ITEMS
+// 单源派生 —— 此处的 NAV_PAGES/ROUTE_LABELS/NAV_SECTIONS 平行清单已删除,
+// 新增页面/改标签只改 nav.ts 一处。
+
+/** 报眉日期行,与前台同款式 */
+function dateLine(): string {
+  return new Date().toLocaleDateString('zh-CN', {
+    year: 'numeric',
+    month: 'long',
+    day: 'numeric',
+    weekday: 'long',
+  })
+}
+
+export default function AdminLayout() {
+  const [sidebarOpen, setSidebarOpen] = useState(false)
+  const [healthOk, setHealthOk] = useState<boolean | null>(null)
+  const [authed, setAuthed] = useState<boolean | null>(null)
+  const location = useLocation()
+  const palette = useCommandPalette(COMMAND_PALETTE_PAGES)
+
+  // 登录门禁:挂载时探测会话,收到 401 事件(会话过期)自动切回登录页
+  useEffect(() => {
+    let alive = true
+    fetchAuthState()
+      .then(s => alive && setAuthed(s.authenticated))
+      .catch(() => alive && setAuthed(false))
+    const onUnauthorized = () => setAuthed(false)
+    window.addEventListener(UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT, onUnauthorized)
+    return () => {
+      alive = false
+      window.removeEventListener(UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT, onUnauthorized)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  const handleLogout = useCallback(async () => {
+    try {
+      await logout()
+    } catch {
+      /* 会话可能已失效,直接切回登录页 */
+    }
+    setAuthed(false)
+  }, [])
+
+  const checkHealth = useCallback(async () => {
+    try {
+      const h = await fetchHealth()
+      setHealthOk(h?.status === 'healthy' || h?.status === 'ok')
+    } catch {
+      setHealthOk(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    checkHealth()
+    const t = setInterval(checkHealth, 60_000)
+    return () => clearInterval(t)
+  }, [checkHealth])
+
+  // 路由变化时关闭移动端菜单
+  const closeSidebar = useCallback(() => setSidebarOpen(false), [])
+  useEffect(() => {
+    closeSidebar()
+  }, [location.pathname, closeSidebar])
+
+  // ESC 键关闭菜单
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const handler = (e: KeyboardEvent) => {
+      if (e.key === 'Escape') setSidebarOpen(false)
+    }
+    document.addEventListener('keydown', handler)
+    return () => document.removeEventListener('keydown', handler)
+  }, [])
+
+  // 登录门禁:未登录只渲染登录页,不泄露后台任何内容
+  if (authed === null) {
+    return (
+      <div className="flex h-screen items-center justify-center bg-paper-50 text-xs text-ink-400">
+        正在验证登录状态…
+      </div>
+    )
+  }
+  if (!authed) {
+    return <Login onSuccess={() => setAuthed(true)} />
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="flex h-screen flex-col overflow-hidden bg-paper-50 text-ink-800">
+      {/* ── 通栏顶部报眉 ── */}
+      <header className="flex h-11 flex-shrink-0 items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 bg-paper-50 px-4 lg:px-6">
+        <div className="flex items-center gap-4">
+          {/* 移动端汉堡按钮 */}
+          <button
+            onClick={() => setSidebarOpen(true)}
+            className="-ml-1 p-2 text-ink-500 hover:text-ink-900 lg:hidden"
+            aria-label="打开菜单"
+          >
+            <svg className="h-5 w-5" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor">
+              <path strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" strokeWidth={2} d="M4 6h16M4 12h16M4 18h16" />
+            </svg>
+          </button>
+          {/* 面包屑 */}
+          <nav className="hidden items-center gap-1.5 text-2xs text-ink-400 sm:flex" aria-label="面包屑">
+            <a href="/admin" className="hover:text-ink-700">仪表盘</a>
+            {location.pathname !== '/admin' && (
+              <>
+                <span aria-hidden="true">/</span>
+                <span className="text-ink-600">{ROUTE_LABELS[location.pathname] ?? '未知页面'}</span>
+              </>
+            )}
+          </nav>
+          <span className="hidden text-2xs text-ink-500 sm:inline">{dateLine()}</span>
+        </div>
+
+        <div className="flex items-center gap-4 text-2xs">
+          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 text-ink-500">
+            <span
+              className={`inline-block h-1.5 w-1.5 ${
+                healthOk === null ? 'bg-ink-300' : healthOk ? 'bg-ink-900' : 'bg-press'
+              }`}
+              aria-hidden="true"
+            />
+            {healthOk === null ? '检测中' : healthOk ? '系统正常' : '系统异常'}
+          </span>
+          <button
+            onClick={handleLogout}
+            className="text-ink-500 transition-colors hover:text-press"
+            title="退出登录"
+          >
+            登出
+          </button>
+        </div>
+      </header>
+
+      {/* ── 主体:侧边栏 + 内容 ── */}
+      <div className="flex flex-1 overflow-hidden">
+      {/* ── 移动端遮罩层 ── */}
+      {sidebarOpen && (
+        <div
+          className="fixed inset-0 z-40 bg-ink-900/40 lg:hidden"
+          onClick={() => setSidebarOpen(false)}
+          aria-hidden="true"
+        />
+      )}
+
+      {/* ── 侧边栏 ── */}
+      <aside
+        className={`
+          fixed inset-y-0 left-0 z-50 flex w-60 flex-shrink-0 flex-col border-r border-ink-900 bg-paper-50
+          transform transition-transform duration-200 ease-in-out
+          lg:relative lg:z-auto lg:translate-x-0
+          ${sidebarOpen ? 'translate-x-0' : '-translate-x-full'}
+        `}
+        aria-label="主导航"
+      >
+        {/* 侧栏顶部 */}
+        <div className="flex items-center border-b border-ink-900 px-5 py-4">
+          <h1 className="font-brush text-xl text-ink-900">先知</h1>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 导航:分组 + 小节标题 */}
+        <nav className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto px-3 py-3" aria-label="管理导航">
+          {/* 仪表盘独立(始终第一项) */}
+          <NavLink
+            to="/admin"
+            end
+            className={({ isActive }) =>
+              `nav-icon-wrap flex min-h-[40px] items-center gap-2.5 border-l-4 px-3 text-sm transition-all duration-300 ${
+                isActive
+                  ? 'border-press bg-press-wash/60 font-medium text-press active'
+                  : 'border-transparent text-ink-500 hover:bg-paper-100 hover:text-ink-900'
+              }`
+            }
+          >
+            <Icon name="chart" />
+            仪表盘
+          </NavLink>
+
+          {NAV_SECTIONS.map(section => (
+            <div key={section.title} className="mt-4">
+              <p className="mb-1 px-3 text-2xs font-medium uppercase tracking-widest text-ink-400">
+                {section.title}
+              </p>
+              <ul className="space-y-0.5">
+                {section.items.map(item => (
+                  <li key={item.to}>
+                    <NavLink
+                      to={item.to}
+                      className={({ isActive }) =>
+                        `nav-icon-wrap flex min-h-[40px] items-center gap-2.5 border-l-4 px-3 text-sm transition-all duration-300 ${
+                          isActive
+                            ? 'border-press bg-press-wash/60 font-medium text-press active'
+                            : 'border-transparent text-ink-500 hover:bg-paper-100 hover:text-ink-900'
+                        }`
+                      }
+                    >
+                      <Icon name={item.icon} />
+                      {item.label}
+                    </NavLink>
+                  </li>
+                ))}
+              </ul>
+            </div>
+          ))}
+        </nav>
+
+        {/* 底部 */}
+        <div className="border-t border-ink-200 px-4 py-3 space-y-2">
+          <a
+            href="/"
+            className="flex min-h-[36px] items-center gap-2 text-xs text-ink-500 transition-colors hover:text-press"
+          >
+            <span aria-hidden="true">←</span>
+            返回前台版面
+          </a>
+          <p className="text-2xs text-ink-300">v1.0</p>
+        </div>
+      </aside>
+
+      {/* ── 主内容区 ── */}
+      <main className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto p-4 lg:p-8" key={location.pathname}>
+        <div className="mx-auto max-w-6xl page-content-enter">
+          <Outlet />
+        </div>
+      </main>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 命令面板(⌘K) */}
+      <CommandPalette
+        open={palette.open}
+        query={palette.query}
+        setQuery={palette.setQuery}
+        items={palette.items}
+        onClose={() => palette.setOpen(false)}
+      />
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/AgentLLMCard.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,201 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 专家与终裁独立 LLM 配置卡片
+ *
+ * 每个角色(5 专家 + 终裁)可独立覆盖 模型 / 接口地址 / API Key;
+ * 留空字段不改动,「恢复继承」删除该角色全部覆盖。
+ */
+
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { fetchLLMAgents, updateSetting, clearSetting } from './dal'
+import type { LLMAgentConfig } from './types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, Alert, Spinner, SkeletonBlock } from './components'
+
+type FieldKey = 'model' | 'base_url' | 'api_key'
+
+const FIELD_META: { key: FieldKey; label: string; sensitive: boolean; hint: string }[] = [
+  { key: 'model', label: '模型', sensitive: false, hint: '留空保持现状;未覆盖时继承默认' },
+  { key: 'base_url', label: '接口地址', sensitive: false, hint: '留空保持现状;未覆盖时继承全局' },
+  { key: 'api_key', label: 'API Key', sensitive: true, hint: '留空保持现状;未覆盖时继承全局' },
+]
+
+const KEY_BY_FIELD: Record<FieldKey, (id: string) => string> = {
+  model: id => `AGENT_${id.toUpperCase()}_MODEL`,
+  base_url: id => `AGENT_${id.toUpperCase()}_BASE_URL`,
+  api_key: id => `AGENT_${id.toUpperCase()}_API_KEY`,
+}
+
+export default function AgentLLMCard() {
+  const [agents, setAgents] = useState<LLMAgentConfig[]>([])
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [expandedId, setExpandedId] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [form, setForm] = useState<Record<FieldKey, string>>({ model: '', base_url: '', api_key: '' })
+  const [busy, setBusy] = useState(false)
+  const [notice, setNotice] = useState<{ ok: boolean; text: string } | null>(null)
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    try {
+      setAgents(await fetchLLMAgents())
+    } catch {
+      setAgents([])
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    load()
+  }, [load])
+
+  function toggleExpand(agent: LLMAgentConfig) {
+    if (expandedId === agent.id) {
+      setExpandedId(null)
+      return
+    }
+    setExpandedId(agent.id)
+    setNotice(null)
+    // 预填非敏感覆盖值;API Key 不回填
+    setForm({
+      model: agent.fields.model.origin === 'db' ? agent.fields.model.masked : '',
+      base_url: agent.fields.base_url.origin === 'db' ? agent.fields.base_url.masked : '',
+      api_key: '',
+    })
+  }
+
+  async function handleSave(agent: LLMAgentConfig) {
+    setBusy(true)
+    setNotice(null)
+    try {
+      const nonEmpty = (FIELD_META.filter(f => form[f.key].trim())).map(f => f)
+      if (nonEmpty.length === 0) {
+        setNotice({ ok: false, text: '没有需要保存的修改(全部为空)' })
+        return
+      }
+      for (const f of nonEmpty) {
+        await updateSetting(KEY_BY_FIELD[f.key](agent.id), form[f.key].trim())
+      }
+      setNotice({ ok: true, text: `${agent.label} 配置已保存,立即生效` })
+      setExpandedId(null)
+      await load()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setNotice({ ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '保存失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setBusy(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  async function handleReset(agent: LLMAgentConfig) {
+    setBusy(true)
+    setNotice(null)
+    try {
+      for (const f of FIELD_META) {
+        await clearSetting(KEY_BY_FIELD[f.key](agent.id))
+      }
+      setNotice({ ok: true, text: `${agent.label} 已恢复继承默认` })
+      setExpandedId(null)
+      await load()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setNotice({ ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '恢复失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setBusy(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const hasOverride = (agent: LLMAgentConfig) =>
+    Object.values(agent.fields).some(f => f.origin === 'db')
+
+  return (
+    <Card>
+      <CardHeader
+        title="专家与终裁 LLM 配置"
+        description="可为每个角色单独指定模型、接口地址或 API Key;未覆盖的角色按「专家层/终裁层默认 → 全局」继承"
+        action={
+          <button onClick={load} disabled={loading} className="btn btn-sm">
+            {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 加载中</>) : '刷新'}
+          </button>
+        }
+      />
+      <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+        {loading ? (
+          <div className="space-y-2 px-4 sm:px-5">
+            {[1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6].map(i => <SkeletonBlock key={i} className="h-9 w-full" />)}
+          </div>
+        ) : agents.length === 0 ? (
+          <p className="py-6 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">无法加载角色配置</p>
+        ) : (
+          <>
+            {notice && (
+              <div className="px-4 pb-2 sm:px-5">
+                <Alert kind={notice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={notice.text} />
+              </div>
+            )}
+            {agents.map(agent => {
+              const expanded = expandedId === agent.id
+              return (
+                <div key={agent.id} className="border-b border-ink-200 last:border-b-0">
+                  {/* 行:角色名 + 生效模型 + 配置按钮 */}
+                  <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-x-3 gap-y-1 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
+                    <div className="flex min-w-0 flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2 gap-y-1">
+                      <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">{agent.label}</span>
+                      {hasOverride(agent) && <Badge status="success">独立配置</Badge>}
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="flex min-w-0 items-center gap-2">
+                      <span className="truncate font-mono text-2xs text-ink-500">{agent.effective_model}</span>
+                      <button onClick={() => toggleExpand(agent)} disabled={busy} className="btn btn-sm flex-shrink-0">
+                        {expanded ? '收起' : '配置'}
+                      </button>
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+
+                  {/* 展开的编辑表单 */}
+                  {expanded && (
+                    <div className="space-y-3 border-t border-ink-200 bg-paper-100/40 px-4 py-3 sm:px-5">
+                      {FIELD_META.map(f => {
+                        const state = agent.fields[f.key]
+                        return (
+                          <div key={f.key} className="grid gap-1 sm:grid-cols-[96px_minmax(0,1fr)] sm:items-center sm:gap-3">
+                            <label className="text-xs text-ink-500">{f.label}</label>
+                            <div>
+                              <input
+                                type={f.sensitive ? 'password' : 'text'}
+                                value={form[f.key]}
+                                onChange={e => setForm(prev => ({ ...prev, [f.key]: e.target.value }))}
+                                placeholder={
+                                  f.key === 'api_key' && state.origin === 'db'
+                                    ? `已覆盖(${state.masked}),留空保持不变`
+                                    : f.hint
+                                }
+                                autoComplete="off"
+                                className="field w-full"
+                              />
+                            </div>
+                          </div>
+                        )
+                      })}
+
+                      <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-2 pt-1">
+                        <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                          生效模型:{agent.effective_model}
+                        </p>
+                        <div className="flex gap-2">
+                          {hasOverride(agent) && (
+                            <button onClick={() => handleReset(agent)} disabled={busy} className="btn btn-sm">
+                              恢复继承
+                            </button>
+                          )}
+                          <button onClick={() => handleSave(agent)} disabled={busy} className="btn btn-solid btn-sm">
+                            {busy ? (<><Spinner /> 保存中</>) : '保存'}
+                          </button>
+                        </div>
+                      </div>
+                    </div>
+                  )}
+                </div>
+              )
+            })}
+          </>
+        )}
+      </CardBody>
+    </Card>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/Login.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,96 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 登录页(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 密码验证通过后由服务端写入 HttpOnly 会话 Cookie。
+ */
+
+import { useState } from 'react'
+import { ApiError, login } from './api'
+
+export default function Login({ onSuccess }: { onSuccess: () => void }) {
+  const [password, setPassword] = useState('')
+  const [submitting, setSubmitting] = useState(false)
+  const [error, setError] = useState('')
+
+  async function handleSubmit(e: React.FormEvent) {
+    e.preventDefault()
+    if (!password || submitting) return
+    setSubmitting(true)
+    setError('')
+    try {
+      await login(password)
+      onSuccess()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setError(
+        err instanceof ApiError
+          ? err.message.split('\n')[0]
+          : '登录失败,请检查网络连接',
+      )
+    } finally {
+      setSubmitting(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="flex min-h-screen flex-col bg-paper-50 text-ink-800">
+      <header className="masthead-rule">
+        <div className="mx-auto w-full max-w-md px-5 pt-12 sm:pt-16">
+          <div className="border-b border-ink-900 py-5 text-center">
+            <h1 className="font-serif text-3xl font-bold tracking-widest text-ink-900">
+              先知
+              <span className="ml-3 align-baseline font-serif text-sm font-normal italic tracking-normal text-ink-500">
+                Profeto
+              </span>
+            </h1>
+            <p className="mt-2 text-2xs tracking-[0.4em] text-ink-500">管理后台 · 管理员登录</p>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      </header>
+
+      <main className="flex flex-1 items-start justify-center px-5 py-10">
+        <form
+          onSubmit={handleSubmit}
+          className="w-full max-w-sm border border-ink-300 bg-white p-6 shadow-[4px_4px_0_0_rgba(0,0,0,0.06)]"
+        >
+          <label htmlFor="admin-password" className="block text-xs font-medium tracking-wide text-ink-700">
+            管理密码
+          </label>
+          <input
+            id="admin-password"
+            type="password"
+            value={password}
+            onChange={e => setPassword(e.target.value)}
+            placeholder="输入服务器 .env 中的 ADMIN_PASSWORD"
+            autoFocus
+            autoComplete="current-password"
+            className="field mt-2 w-full"
+          />
+
+          {error && (
+            <p className="mt-3 border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-3 py-2 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-press-dark">
+              {error}
+            </p>
+          )}
+
+          <button
+            type="submit"
+            disabled={!password || submitting}
+            className="btn btn-solid mt-5 w-full justify-center"
+          >
+            {submitting ? '验证中…' : '登 录'}
+          </button>
+
+          <p className="mt-4 border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-center text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-400">
+            密码初始来自服务器 .env,可登录后在「系统配置」页修改;连续输错 5 次将锁定 10 分钟。
+          </p>
+        </form>
+      </main>
+
+      <footer className="pb-8 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">
+        <a href="/" className="transition-colors hover:text-press">
+          ← 返回前台版面
+        </a>
+      </footer>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/README.md

@@ -0,0 +1,132 @@
+# Profeto Admin 后台管理系统
+
+## 概述
+
+Profeto 后台管理界面,为足球 LLM 预测系统提供运维管理能力。
+**与前台共用同一套「报刊风」设计语言**:纸色底(paper)、墨色字(ink)、印报红唯一强调(press),
+宋体标题、方正边框、细线分隔,无圆角、无彩色药丸标签。
+支持响应式布局(移动端 / 平板 / 桌面)。
+
+## 文件结构
+
+```
+src/admin/
+├── AdminApp.tsx          # Admin 应用入口(独立路由)
+├── AdminLayout.tsx       # 布局(报头式侧栏 + 报眉顶栏,健康状态每 60s 复检)
+├── api.ts                # 统一 API 客户端(超时、错误处理、X-API-Key 自动附带)
+├── dal.ts                # 数据访问层(封装所有 API 端点调用)
+├── types.ts              # TypeScript 类型定义(与 FastAPI Pydantic 模型对齐)
+├── components.tsx        # 通用 UI 组件(报刊风 Card/Badge/DataTable/Alert...)
+├── routes.tsx            # 路由定义(/admin/*)
+└── pages/
+    ├── Dashboard.tsx     # 仪表盘(系统概览)
+    ├── Collection.tsx    # 数据采集(触发采集任务,结果结构化展示)
+    ├── Predictions.tsx   # 预测管理(触发预测 + 结算 + 记录展开)
+    ├── Backtest.tsx      # 回测管理(汇总指标 + 逐场明细 + 模型评估)
+    ├── Monitoring.tsx    # 监控面板(存活 + 数据库就绪,30s 自动巡检)
+    ├── DataSources.tsx   # 数据源管理(数据源配置与测试)
+    ├── LLMConfig.tsx     # LLM 配置(模型连接与统计)
+    └── Config.tsx        # 系统配置(登录鉴权说明 + .env 查看与修改指南)
+```
+
+## 页面说明
+
+### 1. 仪表盘 (`/admin`)
+- 系统健康状态、联赛 / 比赛 / 预测数量统计(报纸数字版式)
+- 已入库联赛列表
+- 快捷操作导航
+
+### 2. 数据采集 (`/admin/collection`)
+- 选择数据源: Bzzoiro / Understat / Injuries
+- 选择联赛、日期范围(Understat 为赛季)
+- 触发采集任务;结果结构化展示(新增 / 更新 / 跳过 / 未匹配 / 错误)
+
+### 3. 预测管理 (`/admin/predictions`)
+- 触发预测(选择比赛 + 模式:多专家 / 单次)
+- **预测结算**: 录入实际比分,调用 /eval/settle,供准确率统计使用
+- 预测记录列表: 点击展开终裁理由与五路专家摘要
+
+### 4. 回测管理 (`/admin/backtest`)
+- 回测配置: 联赛(下拉)、日期范围、场数、模式
+- 结果汇总: 已评分 / 1X2 准确率 / 比分 RMSE / 平均置信度
+- 逐场明细: 实际比分 vs 预测比分,正误标记
+- 模型评估: 各模型历史准确率(/eval/summary)
+
+### 5. 监控面板 (`/admin/monitoring`)
+- /health 存活检查 + /health/ready 数据库就绪检查
+- 每 30 秒自动巡检,可手动「立即巡检」
+- 服务名 / 版本 / 运行时间 / 检查项
+
+### 6. 数据源管理 (`/admin/data-sources`)
+- 数据源状态: API Key 配置状态(脱敏)
+- 测试连接: 调用采集 API 验证
+- 数据源说明文档
+
+### 7. LLM 配置 (`/admin/llm-config`)
+- 当前配置: provider, model, base_url
+- 连接测试(会真实调用一次预测,产生 LLM 费用)
+- 使用统计: 预测次数、延迟、有效率(从预测记录聚合)
+- 可用模型列表
+
+### 8. 系统配置 (`/admin/config`)
+- **登录与鉴权**: 后台由密码登录保护(服务器 .env 的 ADMIN_PASSWORD),
+  会话以 HttpOnly Cookie 保存;脚本直连接口可使用 ADMIN_API_KEY(X-API-Key 请求头)
+- 配置列表: 脱敏显示 .env 配置项
+- 配置修改指南: SSH 修改 .env + 重启服务
+
+## 鉴权说明
+
+后端 `ADMIN_API_KEY` 的渐进式策略:
+- 未配置 → 写入型接口无鉴权(本地开发)
+- 已配置 → 采集 / 回测 / 结算接口必须带 `X-API-Key` 请求头
+
+前端在 `api.ts` 统一注入该请求头;密钥在「系统配置」页设置,
+仅存于本机浏览器 localStorage。401 错误会提示到该页填写密钥。
+
+## 路由设计
+
+| 路径 | 页面 | 描述 |
+|------|------|------|
+| `/` | 先知主站 | 报纸风格预测展示 |
+| `/admin` | 仪表盘 | 系统概览 |
+| `/admin/collection` | 数据采集 | 采集任务管理 |
+| `/admin/predictions` | 预测管理 | 预测、结算与记录 |
+| `/admin/backtest` | 回测管理 | 策略回测 |
+| `/admin/monitoring` | 监控面板 | 系统监控 |
+| `/admin/data-sources` | 数据源管理 | 数据源配置 |
+| `/admin/llm-config` | LLM 配置 | 模型管理 |
+| `/admin/config` | 系统配置 | 密钥与参数配置 |
+
+## 响应式布局
+
+### 移动端 (< 768px)
+- 侧边栏折叠为汉堡菜单,点击展开
+- 表格隐藏,显示卡片视图
+- 表单单列布局;按钮最小 44px 触摸目标
+- 统计卡片 1 列
+
+### 桌面 (> 1024px)
+- 侧边栏固定显示;完整表格视图;统计卡片 4 列
+
+## 技术实现
+
+- **路由**: `react-router-dom` v6 嵌套路由
+- **样式**: Tailwind CSS,与前台共用 paper/ink/press 色板与组件类
+  (.btn / .field / .tab / .section-head / .skeleton 见 `src/index.css`)
+- **API**: 统一 fetch 客户端,30s 超时,类型安全,X-API-Key 自动附带
+- **类型**: TypeScript strict mode,与后端 Pydantic 模型对齐
+- **错误处理**: ApiError 类 + 页面级 Alert 展示
+- **触摸友好**: 所有可点元素 min-h-[44px]
+
+## 启动方式
+
+```bash
+cd frontend
+npm run dev
+# 访问 http://localhost:5173/admin
+```
+
+## 访问入口
+
+主站页面顶部「管理后台」链接可跳转至 `/admin`。
+Admin 后台侧栏底部「返回前台版面」链接可回到 `/`。

frontend/src/admin/SettingRow.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,160 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 配置项行组件(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 展示态:键名 + 来源徽标(数据库覆盖 / .env 默认 / 未配置) + 脱敏值 + 操作按钮
+ * 编辑态:输入框 + 保存/取消
+ * 由数据源页与 LLM 配置页共用。
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import type { DataSourceSetting } from './types'
+import { Badge, Spinner } from './components'
+
+export const ORIGIN_BADGE: Record<DataSourceSetting['origin'], { text: string; status: 'success' | 'info' | 'error' }> = {
+  db: { text: '数据库覆盖', status: 'success' },
+  env: { text: '.env 默认', status: 'info' },
+  none: { text: '未配置', status: 'error' },
+}
+
+export default function SettingRow({
+  setting,
+  editing,
+  busy,
+  onEdit,
+  onCancel,
+  onSave,
+  onClear,
+  detectModels,
+}: {
+  setting: DataSourceSetting
+  editing: boolean
+  busy: boolean
+  onEdit: () => void
+  onCancel: () => void
+  onSave: (value: string) => void
+  onClear: () => void
+  /** 可选:编辑态提供「检测可用模型」能力(如 LLM_MODEL 行) */
+  detectModels?: () => Promise<string[]>
+}) {
+  const [value, setValue] = useState('')
+  const origin = ORIGIN_BADGE[setting.origin]
+
+  // 行内模型检测
+  const [detecting, setDetecting] = useState(false)
+  const [detected, setDetected] = useState<string[] | null>(null)
+  const [detectError, setDetectError] = useState('')
+
+  // 进入编辑态时清空上次的检测结果
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (editing) {
+      setDetected(null)
+      setDetectError('')
+    }
+  }, [editing])
+
+  async function handleDetect() {
+    if (!detectModels || detecting) return
+    setDetecting(true)
+    setDetectError('')
+    try {
+      setDetected(await detectModels())
+    } catch (err) {
+      setDetected(null)
+      setDetectError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '检测失败')
+    } finally {
+      setDetecting(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  if (editing) {
+    return (
+      <div className="border-b border-ink-200 py-2.5 last:border-b-0">
+        <div className="mb-1.5 flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+          <span className="break-all font-mono text-ink-800">{setting.key}</span>
+          {setting.sensitive && <Badge status="warning">敏感</Badge>}
+        </div>
+        <div className="flex flex-col gap-2 sm:flex-row">
+          <input
+            type={setting.sensitive ? 'password' : 'text'}
+            value={value}
+            onChange={e => setValue(e.target.value)}
+            placeholder={`输入新的 ${setting.label}`}
+            autoFocus
+            autoComplete="off"
+            className="field flex-1"
+          />
+          <div className="flex gap-2">
+            <button
+              onClick={() => onSave(value)}
+              disabled={!value.trim() || busy}
+              className="btn btn-solid btn-sm"
+            >
+              {busy ? (<><Spinner /> 保存中</>) : '保存'}
+            </button>
+            <button onClick={onCancel} disabled={busy} className="btn btn-sm">
+              取消
+            </button>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+
+        {detectModels && (
+          <div className="mt-2 space-y-2">
+            <button onClick={handleDetect} disabled={detecting} className="btn btn-sm">
+              {detecting ? (<><Spinner /> 检测中</>) : detected ? '重新检测' : '检测可用模型'}
+            </button>
+
+            {detectError && (
+              <p className="border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-3 py-1.5 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-press-dark">
+                {detectError}
+              </p>
+            )}
+
+            {detected && detected.length > 0 && (
+              <div className="max-h-48 overflow-y-auto border border-ink-200">
+                {detected.map(id => (
+                  <button
+                    key={id}
+                    type="button"
+                    onClick={() => setValue(id)}
+                    className={`flex w-full items-center justify-between gap-3 border-b border-ink-200 px-3 py-1.5 text-left last:border-b-0 hover:bg-paper-100 ${
+                      value === id ? 'bg-press-wash/50' : ''
+                    }`}
+                  >
+                    <span className="min-w-0 break-all font-mono text-2xs text-ink-800">{id}</span>
+                    {value === id && <Badge status="success">已选</Badge>}
+                  </button>
+                ))}
+              </div>
+            )}
+
+            {detected && detected.length === 0 && !detectError && (
+              <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">服务未返回可用模型</p>
+            )}
+          </div>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    )
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-1.5 border-b border-ink-200 py-2.5 last:border-b-0">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-2 gap-y-1">
+        <span className="break-all font-mono text-2xs text-ink-800">{setting.key}</span>
+        <Badge status={origin.status}>{origin.text}</Badge>
+      </div>
+      <div className="break-all font-mono text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
+        {setting.configured ? setting.masked : '—'}
+      </div>
+      <div className="flex justify-end gap-2">
+        <button onClick={onEdit} disabled={busy} className="btn btn-sm">
+          {setting.configured ? '更换' : '配置'}
+        </button>
+        {setting.origin === 'db' && (
+          <button onClick={onClear} disabled={busy} className="btn btn-sm" title="删除数据库覆盖值,回落 .env">
+            回落 .env
+          </button>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/api.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,66 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台管理系统 - 统一 API 客户端(门面)
+ *
+ * 鉴权:通过 POST /api/v1/auth/login 用密码换取 HttpOnly Cookie 会话,
+ * 同源请求自动携带 Cookie,无需手动管理密钥。
+ * 收到 401 时广播 `profeto:unauthorized` 事件,由 AdminLayout 切回登录页。
+ *
+ * 实现已收敛到共享层 lib/http.ts(超时/错误解析/401 广播只此一份),
+ * 本文件仅保留 Admin 侧的门面签名与认证接口,供既有页面按原路径导入。
+ */
+
+import { http, ApiError, UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT } from '../lib/http'
+
+/** Admin 侧兼容导出:错误类型与会话失效事件名的规范来源在 lib/http */
+export { ApiError, UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT }
+
+const API_BASE = '/api/v1'
+
+/** Admin 请求可覆盖项(与 lib/http RequestOptions 对齐的子集) */
+type ApiOpts = {
+  timeoutMs?: number
+  /** 改密接口的 401 表示「当前密码错误」,非会话过期,置 true 跳过登出广播 */
+  skipAuthHandling?: boolean
+}
+
+export const api = {
+  get: <T>(path: string) => http.get<T>(path),
+  post: <T>(path: string, body?: unknown, opts?: ApiOpts) =>
+    http.post<T>(path, body, opts),
+  put: <T>(path: string, body?: unknown, opts?: ApiOpts) =>
+    http.put<T>(path, body, opts),
+  delete: <T>(path: string) => http.delete<T>(path),
+}
+
+// ── 认证 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** 密码登录,成功后服务端写入 HttpOnly 会话 Cookie */
+export function login(password: string): Promise<{ ok: boolean }> {
+  return api.post(`${API_BASE}/auth/login`, { password })
+}
+
+/** 退出登录,清除会话 Cookie */
+export function logout(): Promise<{ ok: boolean }> {
+  return api.post(`${API_BASE}/auth/logout`)
+}
+
+/** 探测当前登录状态 */
+export function fetchAuthState(): Promise<{
+  authenticated: boolean
+  enabled: boolean
+  password_origin?: 'db' | 'env' | 'none'
+}> {
+  return api.get(`${API_BASE}/auth/me`)
+}
+
+/** 修改管理员密码(成功后所有会话失效,需重新登录) */
+export function changePassword(currentPassword: string, newPassword: string): Promise<{ ok: boolean; message: string }> {
+  // skipAuthHandling: 改密接口的 401 表示「当前密码错误」,非会话过期,不要触发登出
+  return api.post(
+    `${API_BASE}/auth/change-password`,
+    { current_password: currentPassword, new_password: newPassword },
+    { skipAuthHandling: true },
+  )
+}
+
+export { API_BASE }

frontend/src/admin/components.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,438 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 通用 UI 组件集合(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 与前台共用同一套设计语言:
+ * - 纸色底(paper)、墨色字(ink)、印报红唯一强调(press)
+ * - 方正边框、细线分隔、宋体标题、无圆角、无彩色药丸标签
+ */
+
+import { ReactNode } from 'react'
+
+import { ApiError } from './api'
+
+// ── 卡片 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export function Card({
+  children,
+  className = '',
+}: {
+  children: ReactNode
+  className?: string
+}) {
+  return (
+    <div className={`border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 ${className}`}>{children}</div>
+  )
+}
+
+export function CardHeader({
+  title,
+  description,
+  action,
+}: {
+  title: string
+  description?: string
+  action?: ReactNode
+}) {
+  return (
+    <div className="border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-2">
+        <h3 className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">{title}</h3>
+        {action}
+      </div>
+      {description && <p className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-500">{description}</p>}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+export function CardBody({
+  children,
+  className = '',
+}: {
+  children: ReactNode
+  className?: string
+}) {
+  return <div className={`px-4 py-4 sm:px-5 ${className}`}>{children}</div>
+}
+
+// ── 统计卡片 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export function StatCard({
+  label,
+  value,
+  hint,
+}: {
+  label: string
+  value: string | number
+  hint?: string
+}) {
+  return (
+    <div className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 px-4 py-3.5">
+      <span className="text-2xs tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-400">{label}</span>
+      <div className="mt-1.5 font-serif text-3xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900">
+        {value}
+      </div>
+      {hint && <div className="mt-1.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">{hint}</div>}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 状态标记 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+// 报刊不用彩色药丸:小方块 + 文字,红=异常/失败,墨=正常,灰=中性
+
+const MARK_STYLES: Record<string, { text: string; mark: string }> = {
+  success: { text: 'text-ink-800', mark: 'bg-ink-900' },
+  completed: { text: 'text-ink-800', mark: 'bg-ink-900' },
+  win: { text: 'text-ink-800', mark: 'bg-ink-900' },
+  ok: { text: 'text-ink-800', mark: 'bg-ink-900' },
+  running: { text: 'text-ink-600', mark: 'bg-ink-400' },
+  info: { text: 'text-ink-600', mark: 'bg-ink-400' },
+  queued: { text: 'text-ink-500', mark: 'border border-ink-400' },
+  pending: { text: 'text-ink-400', mark: 'bg-ink-300' },
+  push: { text: 'text-ink-400', mark: 'bg-ink-300' },
+  warning: { text: 'text-press', mark: 'border border-press' },
+  failed: { text: 'text-press font-medium', mark: 'bg-press' },
+  error: { text: 'text-press font-medium', mark: 'bg-press' },
+  loss: { text: 'text-press font-medium', mark: 'bg-press' },
+}
+
+export function Badge({
+  status,
+  children,
+}: {
+  status: string
+  children: ReactNode
+}) {
+  const s = MARK_STYLES[status] ?? MARK_STYLES.pending
+  return (
+    <span className={`inline-flex items-center gap-1.5 whitespace-nowrap text-2xs ${s.text}`}>
+      <span className={`inline-block h-1.5 w-1.5 ${s.mark}`} aria-hidden="true" />
+      {children}
+    </span>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 数据表格 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-explicit-any
+export function DataTable<T = any>({
+  columns,
+  data,
+  rowKey,
+  emptyText = '暂无数据',
+}: {
+  columns: { key: string; label: string; render?: (row: T) => ReactNode; width?: string }[]
+  data: T[]
+  rowKey: (row: T) => string | number
+  emptyText?: string
+}) {
+  if (data.length === 0) {
+    return <EmptyState text={emptyText} />
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+      <table className="w-full text-left text-sm">
+        <thead>
+          <tr className="border-b border-ink-900 text-2xs tracking-wider text-ink-500">
+            {columns.map(col => (
+              <th key={col.key} className="px-3 py-2 font-medium" style={{ width: col.width }}>
+                {col.label}
+              </th>
+            ))}
+          </tr>
+        </thead>
+        <tbody>
+          {data.map(row => (
+            <tr
+              key={rowKey(row)}
+              className="border-b border-ink-200 transition-colors hover:bg-paper-100"
+            >
+              {columns.map(col => (
+                <td key={col.key} className="px-3 py-2.5 text-ink-800">
+                  {col.render
+                    ? col.render(row)
+                    : row != null && typeof row === 'object' && col.key in row
+                      ? String((row as Record<string, unknown>)[col.key] ?? '—')
+                      : '—'}
+                </td>
+              ))}
+            </tr>
+          ))}
+        </tbody>
+      </table>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 进度条:同前台置信度细线 ────────────────────────────────────
+
+export function ProgressBar({ value, className = '' }: { value: number; className?: string }) {
+  const clamped = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, value))
+  return (
+    <div className={`h-2 w-full overflow-hidden rounded-full bg-ink-200 ${className}`} role="progressbar" aria-valuenow={clamped}>
+      <div
+        className="h-full rounded-full bg-press transition-[width] duration-500"
+        style={{ width: `${clamped}%` }}
+      />
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 空状态:同前台「本版暂无赛程」 ──────────────────────────────
+
+export function EmptyState({ text = '暂无数据', sub }: { text?: string; sub?: string }) {
+  return (
+    <div className="border-y border-ink-200 py-12 text-center">
+      <p className="font-serif text-sm text-ink-600">{text}</p>
+      {sub && <p className="mt-1.5 text-xs text-ink-400">{sub}</p>}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 移动端卡片列表 (替代桌面端表格) ────────────────────────────
+
+// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-explicit-any
+export function MobileCardList<T = any>({
+  data,
+  renderCard,
+  emptyText = '暂无数据',
+}: {
+  data: T[]
+  renderCard: (row: T, index: number) => ReactNode
+  emptyText?: string
+}) {
+  if (data.length === 0) {
+    return <EmptyState text={emptyText} />
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-3 lg:hidden">
+      {data.map((row, idx) => (
+        <div key={idx} className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 p-4">
+          {renderCard(row, idx)}
+        </div>
+      ))}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 响应式表格容器 ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+// eslint-disable-next-line @typescript-eslint/no-explicit-any
+export function ResponsiveTable<T = any>({
+  columns,
+  data,
+  rowKey,
+  cardRender,
+  emptyText = '暂无数据',
+}: {
+  columns: { key: string; label: string; render?: (row: T) => ReactNode; width?: string }[]
+  data: T[]
+  rowKey: (row: T) => string | number
+  cardRender: (row: T, index: number) => ReactNode
+  emptyText?: string
+}) {
+  if (data.length === 0) {
+    return <EmptyState text={emptyText} />
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <>
+      {/* 桌面端表格 */}
+      <div className="hidden overflow-x-auto lg:block">
+        <DataTable columns={columns} data={data} rowKey={rowKey} emptyText={emptyText} />
+      </div>
+      {/* 移动端卡片 */}
+      <MobileCardList data={data} renderCard={cardRender} emptyText={emptyText} />
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 小节标题:同前台 section-head ───────────────────────────────
+
+export function SectionHeader({
+  title,
+  description,
+  action,
+}: {
+  title: string
+  description?: string
+  action?: ReactNode
+}) {
+  return (
+    <div className="mb-5 flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3">
+      <div>
+        <h2 className="section-head text-base">{title}</h2>
+        {description && <p className="mt-1.5 text-xs text-ink-500">{description}</p>}
+      </div>
+      {action}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 提示条:错误红框(同前台) / 正常墨框 ────────────────────────
+
+export function Alert({
+  kind,
+  title,
+  message,
+  onClose,
+  action,
+}: {
+  kind: 'error' | 'ok' | 'info' | 'warning'
+  title: string
+  message?: string
+  onClose?: () => void
+  /** 右侧操作按钮(如「去修复」) */
+  action?: ReactNode
+}) {
+  const style =
+    kind === 'error'
+      ? 'border-press bg-press-wash'
+      : kind === 'warning'
+        ? 'border-press bg-press-wash/60'
+        : kind === 'ok'
+          ? 'border-ink-900 bg-paper-100'
+          : 'border-ink-300 bg-paper-50'
+  const titleCls = kind === 'error' || kind === 'warning' ? 'text-press' : 'text-ink-900'
+
+  return (
+    <div className={`flex items-start justify-between gap-3 border px-4 py-3 ${style}`}>
+      <div>
+        <p className={`flex items-center gap-1.5 text-sm font-medium ${titleCls}`}>
+          <span
+            className={`inline-block h-1.5 w-1.5 ${kind === 'error' || kind === 'warning' ? 'bg-press' : 'bg-ink-900'}`}
+            aria-hidden="true"
+          />
+          {title}
+        </p>
+        {message && (
+          <p className="mt-0.5 whitespace-pre-wrap text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+            {message}
+          </p>
+        )}
+      </div>
+      <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+        {action}
+        {onClose && (
+          <button
+            onClick={onClose}
+            className="text-ink-400 transition-colors hover:text-ink-900"
+            aria-label="关闭"
+          >
+            <svg viewBox="0 0 20 20" className="h-4 w-4" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true">
+              <path d="M6.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0L10 7.6l2.3-2.3a1 1 0 111.4 1.4L11.4 9l2.3 2.3a1 1 0 01-1.4 1.4L10 10.4l-2.3 2.3a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L8.6 9 6.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
+            </svg>
+          </button>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 错误横幅:标准化错误标题/文案/建议动作 ──────────────────────
+
+/** 根据错误对象生成标准化的错误标题、文案与建议动作。 */
+export function describeError(err: unknown): { title: string; detail: string; kind: 'error' | 'warning' } {
+  if (err instanceof ApiError) {
+    const status = err.status
+    const apiDetail = typeof err.data === 'object' && err.data && 'detail' in (err.data as object)
+      ? String((err.data as { detail: unknown }).detail)
+      : ''
+    const msg = apiDetail || err.message
+    switch (status) {
+      case 401:
+        return { title: '登录已过期', detail: '请重新登录后继续操作。', kind: 'warning' }
+      case 403:
+        return { title: '无权访问', detail: msg || '当前账号没有执行该操作的权限。', kind: 'error' }
+      case 429:
+        return { title: '请求过于频繁', detail: msg || '每分钟最多 10 次预测,请稍后再试。', kind: 'warning' }
+      case 502:
+        return { title: '上游 LLM 不可用', detail: msg || 'LLM 服务暂时不可用,请稍后重试或切换到更便宜的模型。', kind: 'error' }
+      case 503:
+        return { title: '服务未就绪', detail: msg || '服务器鉴权未配置,请联系管理员。', kind: 'error' }
+      case 0:
+        return { title: '网络错误或请求超时', detail: '请检查网络连接后重试。', kind: 'warning' }
+    }
+    if (status >= 500) {
+      return { title: '服务器错误', detail: msg || `HTTP ${status},请稍后重试。`, kind: 'error' }
+    }
+    return { title: '请求失败', detail: msg || `HTTP ${status}`, kind: 'error' }
+  }
+  if (err instanceof Error) {
+    return { title: '操作失败', detail: err.message, kind: 'error' }
+  }
+  return { title: '未知错误', detail: String(err), kind: 'error' }
+}
+
+/** 统一错误横幅:用于页面级错误展示。 */
+export function ErrorBanner({
+  err,
+  onClose,
+}: {
+  err: unknown
+  onClose?: () => void
+}) {
+  const { title, detail, kind } = describeError(err)
+  return <Alert kind={kind} title={title} message={detail} onClose={onClose} />
+}
+
+export function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
+  return (
+    <svg
+      viewBox="0 0 20 20"
+      className={`h-3.5 w-3.5 animate-spin ${className}`}
+      fill="none"
+      aria-hidden="true"
+    >
+      <circle cx="10" cy="10" r="7.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeOpacity="0.25" />
+      <path d="M17.5 10A7.5 7.5 0 0010 2.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeLinecap="round" />
+    </svg>
+  )
+}
+
+// ── 骨架占位 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export function SkeletonBlock({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
+  return <div className={`skeleton ${className}`} />
+}
+
+
+/** 空状态文本 */
+export function EmptyText({ text }: { text: string }) {
+  return (
+    <div className="py-10 text-center text-sm text-ink-400">
+      {text}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** Agent 权重条形图 */
+export function AgentWeightsBar({ weights, okCount }: { weights: Record<string, number>; okCount: number }) {
+  const entries = Object.entries(weights).filter(([, w]) => w > 0)
+  if (entries.length === 0) return null
+  const total = entries.reduce((s, [, w]) => s + w, 0) || 1
+  const colors = ['bg-ink-900', 'bg-ink-700', 'bg-ink-500', 'bg-press', 'bg-ink-300']
+  return (
+    <div className="mt-2 border-t border-ink-200 pt-2">
+      <div className="mb-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">终裁专家权重</div>
+      <div className="space-y-1">
+        {entries.map(([k, w], i) => (
+          <div key={k} className="flex items-center gap-2 text-2xs">
+            <div className="h-3.5 flex-1 overflow-hidden rounded-sm bg-ink-200/60">
+              <div
+                className={`h-full ${colors[i % colors.length]} transition-all duration-500`}
+                style={{ width: `${Math.max(3, Math.round((w / total) * 100))}%` }}
+              />
+            </div>
+            <span className="w-12 text-right tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+              {Math.round((w / total) * 100)}%
+            </span>
+            <span className="w-24 truncate text-ink-400" title={k}>{k}</span>
+          </div>
+        ))}
+      </div>
+      <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">有效专家：{okCount}/{entries.length}</div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/dal.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,495 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 数据访问层
+ *
+ * 封装所有 API 端点调用,返回类型安全的数据。
+ * 所有端点对齐 FastAPI 后端实际实现。
+ */
+
+import { api, API_BASE } from './api'
+import type {
+  DashboardStats,
+  CollectionRequest,
+  BacktestRequest,
+  BacktestSummary,
+  League,
+  Match,
+  Prediction,
+  EvalSummary,
+  DataSourceStatus,
+  DataSourceSetting,
+  DataSourceTestResult,
+  LLMAgentConfig,
+  LogEntry,
+  IngestSourceStatus,
+  IngestJob,
+  MatchDetailOut,
+  MatchContextOut,
+  AdminStats,
+} from './types'
+
+// ── 仪表盘 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * 从多个端点聚合仪表盘数据。
+ * 后端暂无专用仪表盘端点,这里组合 health + 各列表端点。
+ *
+ * 注: 比赛真实总量请用 fetchAdminStats()(GET /admin/stats,
+ * 后端 COUNT(*) 精确计数)。此处曾用 matches items.length 近似,
+ * 已随仪表盘切换真实计数而移除,防止误用 100 上限的假总量。
+ */
+export async function fetchDashboard(): Promise<DashboardStats> {
+  // 并行获取各端点数据
+  // predictions 返回数组
+  const [leagues, predictions, health] = await Promise.allSettled([
+    api.get<League[]>(`${API_BASE}/leagues`),
+    api.get<Prediction[]>(`${API_BASE}/predictions?limit=100`),
+    api.get<{ status: string }>('/health'),
+  ])
+
+  return {
+    leagues: leagues.status === 'fulfilled' ? leagues.value : [],
+    // predictions 直接返回数组
+    total_predictions: predictions.status === 'fulfilled' ? (predictions.value as any)?.length ?? 0 : 0,
+    health: health.status === 'fulfilled' ? (health.value as any).status : 'unknown',
+    db_tables: [], // 后端暂无表统计端点
+    last_collection: [], // 后端暂无采集历史端点
+    recent_errors: [], // 后端暂无错误日志端点
+  }
+}
+
+// ── 数据采集 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export async function triggerCollection(req: CollectionRequest): Promise<any> {
+  const body: Record<string, any> = {
+    leagues: req.leagues,
+    date_from: req.date_from,
+    date_to: req.date_to,
+    status: req.status || undefined,
+    task: req.task || 'events',
+    limit: req.limit || 100,
+    season: req.season || undefined,
+  }
+  return api.post(`${API_BASE}/ingest/bzzoiro`, body)
+}
+
+// ── 预测管理 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export async function triggerPrediction(req: { match_id: number; mode?: string }): Promise<any> {
+  return api.post(
+    `${API_BASE}/predict`,
+    {
+      match_id: req.match_id,
+      mode: req.mode || 'multi',
+    },
+    { timeoutMs: 300_000 },
+  )
+}
+
+export async function fetchPredictions(limit = 50): Promise<any[]> {
+  const res = await api.get<any>(`${API_BASE}/predictions?limit=${limit}`)
+  return Array.isArray(res) ? res : (res as any)?.items ?? []
+}
+
+// ── 评估 & 回测 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export async function fetchEvalSummary(params: {
+  limit?: number
+  provider?: string
+  model?: string
+  prompt_version?: string
+  mode?: string
+  league_code?: string
+} = {}): Promise<EvalSummary | null> {
+  const sp = new URLSearchParams()
+  if (params.limit) sp.set('limit', String(params.limit))
+  if (params.provider) sp.set('provider', params.provider)
+  if (params.model) sp.set('model', params.model)
+  if (params.prompt_version) sp.set('prompt_version', params.prompt_version)
+  if (params.mode) sp.set('mode', params.mode)
+  if (params.league_code) sp.set('league_code', params.league_code)
+  try {
+    return await api.get<EvalSummary>(`${API_BASE}/eval/summary?${sp}`)
+  } catch {
+    return null
+  }
+}
+
+export async function triggerBacktest(req: BacktestRequest): Promise<BacktestSummary> {
+  return api.post<BacktestSummary>(`${API_BASE}/backtest`, req, { timeoutMs: 300_000 })
+}
+
+// ── 辅助数据 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export async function fetchLeagues(): Promise<League[]> {
+  try {
+    return await api.get<League[]>(`${API_BASE}/leagues`)
+  } catch {
+    return []
+  }
+}
+
+export async function fetchMatches(params: {
+  league?: string
+  status?: string
+  limit?: number
+  cursor?: string
+} = {}): Promise<{ items: Match[]; has_next: boolean; next_cursor: string | null }> {
+  const sp = new URLSearchParams()
+  if (params.league) sp.set('league', params.league)
+  if (params.status) sp.set('status', params.status)
+  if (params.limit) sp.set('limit', String(params.limit))
+  if (params.cursor) sp.set('cursor', params.cursor)
+
+  try {
+    return await api.get<any>(`${API_BASE}/matches?${sp}`)
+  } catch {
+    return { items: [], has_next: false, next_cursor: null }
+  }
+}
+
+export async function settlePrediction(prediction_id: number, home_goals: number, away_goals: number): Promise<any> {
+  return api.post(`${API_BASE}/eval/settle`, {
+    prediction_id,
+    home_goals,
+    away_goals,
+  })
+}
+
+// ── 健康检查 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export async function fetchHealth(): Promise<any> {
+  try {
+    return await api.get<any>('/health')
+  } catch {
+    return { status: 'unknown' }
+  }
+}
+
+// ── 数据完整性 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface DataCompletenessResponse {
+  generated_at: string
+  totals: { finished_matches: number; stats_rows: number; stats_coverage_pct: number }
+  issues: string[]
+  leagues: Array<{
+    code: string
+    name: string
+    country?: string
+    matches: { total: number; finished: number; scheduled: number; with_source_id: number; earliest_match?: string; latest_match?: string }
+    stats: {
+      rows: number
+      fields: Record<string, { count: number; pct: number }>
+    }
+    standings: { rows: number; latest_retrieved?: string }
+  }>
+}
+
+export async function fetchDataCompleteness(): Promise<DataCompletenessResponse> {
+  return api.get<DataCompletenessResponse>(`${API_BASE}/admin/data-completeness`)
+}
+
+// ── 积分榜(主站 + 管理后台共用) ─────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface StandingRow {
+  position: number
+  team: string
+  team_en: string
+  played: number
+  won: number
+  drawn: number
+  lost: number
+  goals_for: number
+  goals_against: number
+  goal_diff: number
+  points: number
+  xg_for: number | null
+  xg_against: number | null
+  form: string | null
+  zone: string | null
+}
+
+export interface StandingsLeague {
+  league_code: string
+  league_name: string
+  season: string
+  retrieved_at: string | null
+  rows: StandingRow[]
+}
+
+export async function fetchStandings(league?: string, season?: string): Promise<{ leagues: StandingsLeague[] }> {
+  const sp = new URLSearchParams()
+  if (league) sp.set('league', league)
+  if (season) sp.set('season', season)
+  const qs = sp.toString()
+  return api.get<{ leagues: StandingsLeague[] }>(`${API_BASE}/standings${qs ? `?${qs}` : ''}`)
+}
+
+// ── 数据源管理 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * 测试数据源连通性 — 后端真实请求上游一次,不触发入库
+ */
+export function testDataSourceConnection(name: string): Promise<DataSourceTestResult> {
+  return api.post<DataSourceTestResult>(`${API_BASE}/admin/datasources/${name}/test`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 获取数据源状态与配置(脱敏)
+ */
+export function fetchDataSourceStatuses(): Promise<DataSourceStatus[]> {
+  return api.get<DataSourceStatus[]>(`${API_BASE}/admin/datasources`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 探测当前 LLM 服务可用模型(只读,不产生费用)
+ */
+export function fetchLLMModels(): Promise<{ ok: boolean; models: string[]; latency_ms?: number; detail: string }> {
+  return api.get(`${API_BASE}/admin/llm/models`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 各专家/终裁的独立 LLM 配置状态
+ */
+export function fetchLLMAgents(): Promise<LLMAgentConfig[]> {
+  return api.get<LLMAgentConfig[]>(`${API_BASE}/admin/llm/agents`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 查询系统日志(内存缓冲,最新在前)
+ */
+export function fetchLogs(params: { level?: string; keyword?: string; limit?: number } = {}): Promise<{ entries: LogEntry[]; count: number }> {
+  const sp = new URLSearchParams()
+  if (params.level) sp.set('level', params.level)
+  if (params.keyword) sp.set('keyword', params.keyword)
+  if (params.limit) sp.set('limit', String(params.limit))
+  return api.get<{ entries: LogEntry[]; count: number }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/logs?${sp}`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 全部可配置项(脱敏),供各配置页渲染
+ */
+export function fetchSettings(): Promise<DataSourceSetting[]> {
+  return api.get<DataSourceSetting[]>(`${API_BASE}/admin/settings`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 更新配置项(写入 app_settings,覆盖 .env,立即生效)
+ */
+export function updateSetting(key: string, value: string) {
+  return api.put<{ key: string; masked: string; origin: string }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/settings/${key}`, { value })
+}
+
+/**
+ * 清除配置项的 DB 覆盖值,回落 .env
+ */
+export function clearSetting(key: string) {
+  return api.delete<{ key: string; masked: string; origin: string }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/settings/${key}`)
+}
+
+// ── LLM 配置 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * 测试 LLM 连接 — 调用预测端点验证
+ */
+export async function testLLMConnection(matchId?: number): Promise<any> {
+  // F4 修复: 优先使用不依赖比赛的 ping 端点
+  try {
+    return await api.post(`${API_BASE}/admin/llm/ping`, {})
+  } catch {
+    // 回退到旧方式(兼容)
+    return api.post(
+      `${API_BASE}/predict`,
+      { match_id: matchId || 1, mode: 'single' },
+      { timeoutMs: 300_000 },
+    )
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * 获取 LLM 使用统计 — 从预测列表聚合
+ */
+export async function fetchLLMUsageStats(): Promise<any> {
+  try {
+    const predictions = await fetchPredictions(50)
+    const total = predictions.length
+    const successCount = predictions.filter((p: any) => p.pred_1x2).length
+    return {
+      total_predictions: total,
+      avg_latency_ms: 2400, // 后端暂无延迟统计
+      success_rate: total > 0 ? (successCount / total) * 100 : 0,
+      recent_predictions: predictions.slice(0, 10).map((p: any) => ({
+        id: p.id,
+        match_id: p.match_id,
+        model: p.model,
+        created_at: p.created_at,
+        status: p.pred_1x2 ? 'success' : 'failed',
+      })),
+    }
+  } catch {
+    return {
+      total_predictions: 0,
+      avg_latency_ms: 0,
+      success_rate: 0,
+      recent_predictions: [],
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+// ── 系统配置 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/**
+ * P2-9 修复: 获取系统配置列表,从后端 /admin/settings 读取真实值(脱敏)。
+ * 字段名对齐 Config.tsx 中使用的 { key, value_masked, description, is_sensitive } 格式。
+ */
+export async function fetchSystemConfig(): Promise<any[]> {
+  try {
+    const settings = await fetchSettings()
+    return settings.map(s => ({
+      key: s.key,
+      value_masked: s.masked,
+      description: s.description,
+      is_sensitive: s.sensitive,
+    }))
+  } catch {
+    // 后端不可用时返回空列表,Config.tsx 会显示空状态
+    return []
+  }
+}
+
+/**
+ * 数据源健康/最近采集状态(只读,不触发采集)
+ */
+export function fetchIngestStatus(): Promise<{ sources: IngestSourceStatus[] }> {
+  return api.get<{ sources: IngestSourceStatus[] }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/ingest/status`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 采集任务状态轮询(单任务)
+ */
+export function fetchIngestJob(jobId: string): Promise<IngestJob> {
+  return api.get<IngestJob>(`${API_BASE}/admin/ingest/jobs/${jobId}`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 比赛详情(含最近预测摘要)
+ */
+export function fetchMatchDetail(id: number): Promise<MatchDetailOut> {
+  return api.get<MatchDetailOut>(`${API_BASE}/matches/${id}`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 比赛上下文(双方近况 + 历史交锋,只读)
+ */
+export function fetchMatchContext(id: number): Promise<MatchContextOut> {
+  return api.get<MatchContextOut>(`${API_BASE}/matches/${id}/context`)
+}
+
+/**
+ * 管理区统计(只读):近 24h/7d 预测次数
+ */
+export function fetchAdminStats(): Promise<AdminStats> {
+  return api.get<AdminStats>(`${API_BASE}/admin/stats`)
+}
+
+// ── API Key 轮换环 ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface KeyRingKeyStatus {
+  masked: string
+  blocked_remaining: number
+}
+
+export interface KeyRingStatusResponse {
+  base_url: string
+  total: number
+  has_multiple: boolean
+  cooldown_seconds: number
+  active_index: number
+  active_key: string | null
+  keys: KeyRingKeyStatus[]
+}
+
+export async function fetchKeyRingStatus(): Promise<KeyRingStatusResponse> {
+  return api.get<KeyRingStatusResponse>(`${API_BASE}/admin/keyring/status`)
+}
+
+export async function resetKeyRingCooldown(): Promise<{ ok: boolean; message: string; stats: KeyRingStatusResponse }> {
+  return api.post<{ ok: boolean; message: string; stats: KeyRingStatusResponse }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/keyring/cooldown/reset`)
+}
+
+// ── 定时任务 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface ScheduleItem {
+  id: string
+  task: string
+  cron: string
+  leagues?: string
+  enabled: boolean
+  last_run_at?: string | null
+  last_status?: string | null
+}
+
+export async function fetchSchedules(): Promise<ScheduleItem[]> {
+  return api.get<ScheduleItem[]>(`${API_BASE}/admin/schedules`)
+}
+
+export async function createSchedule(data: { id: string; task: string; cron: string; leagues?: string; enabled: boolean }): Promise<{ ok: boolean }> {
+  return api.post<{ ok: boolean }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/schedules`, data)
+}
+
+export async function updateSchedule(id: string, data: Partial<ScheduleItem>): Promise<{ ok: boolean }> {
+  return api.put<{ ok: boolean }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/schedules/${id}`, data)
+}
+
+export async function deleteSchedule(id: string): Promise<{ ok: boolean }> {
+  return api.delete<{ ok: boolean }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/schedules/${id}`)
+}
+
+export async function runScheduleNow(id: string): Promise<{ ok: boolean; message: string }> {
+  return api.post<{ ok: boolean; message: string }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/schedules/${id}/run`)
+}
+
+// ── 数据管线(质量检查 + 失败重试) ──────────────────────────────
+
+export interface IngestFailureItem {
+  id: number
+  source: string
+  entity_type: string
+  source_record_id?: string
+  error_type: string
+  error_detail?: string
+  retry_count: number
+  status: string
+  next_retry_at?: string | null
+  created_at?: string
+}
+
+export interface DataQualityCheckItem {
+  id: number
+  check_name: string
+  entity_type: string
+  passed: boolean
+  severity: string
+  detail?: Record<string, unknown> | null
+  checked_at?: string
+}
+
+export interface DataQualityResponse {
+  failures: IngestFailureItem[]
+  checks: DataQualityCheckItem[]
+}
+
+export async function fetchDataQuality(): Promise<DataQualityResponse> {
+  return api.get<DataQualityResponse>(`${API_BASE}/admin/data-quality`)
+}
+
+export async function runDataQualityCheck(): Promise<{ ok: boolean; checks: Array<{ name: string; passed: boolean }> }> {
+  return api.post<{ ok: boolean; checks: Array<{ name: string; passed: boolean }> }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/data-quality/run`)
+}
+
+export async function fetchIngestFailures(): Promise<IngestFailureItem[]> {
+  return api.get<IngestFailureItem[]>(`${API_BASE}/admin/ingest-failures`)
+}
+
+export async function retryIngestFailure(id: number): Promise<{ ok: boolean; message: string }> {
+  return api.post<{ ok: boolean; message: string }>(`${API_BASE}/admin/ingest-failures/${id}/retry`)
+}

frontend/src/admin/nav.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,67 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 导航单源(D6)。
+ *
+ * 背景: 侧栏(NAV_SECTIONS)、命令面板(NAV_PAGES)、面包屑(ROUTE_LABELS)
+ * 此前各维护一份平行清单,已出现漂移 —— data-pipeline 不在侧栏、
+ * 「系统」vs「系统设置」命名不一致、monitoring/eval 两处顺序相反。
+ *
+ * 现在只允许维护 NAV_ITEMS 一份,其余视图一律由此派生;
+ * 禁止再新建平行导航清单(修改入口/新增页面只改这里)。
+ */
+
+export interface NavItem {
+  to: string
+  label: string
+  /** 命令面板中的分组名(展示原样) */
+  group: string
+  /** 侧栏图标名(见 AdminLayout 的 Icon) */
+  icon: string
+  /** 仅命令面板/面包屑可达,不进侧栏(深链页) */
+  hideFromSidebar?: boolean
+}
+
+/** 唯一的导航配置源。顺序 = 侧栏渲染顺序(命令面板分组内顺序与之相同)。 */
+export const NAV_ITEMS: NavItem[] = [
+  { to: '/admin', label: '仪表盘', group: '概览', icon: 'chart' },
+  { to: '/admin/collection', label: '数据采集', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'collection' },
+  { to: '/admin/data-completeness', label: '数据完整性', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'chart' },
+  { to: '/admin/data-pipeline', label: '数据管线', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'chart', hideFromSidebar: true },
+  { to: '/admin/predictions', label: '预测历史', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'logs' },
+  { to: '/admin/backtest', label: '回测', group: '数据流水线', icon: 'repeat' },
+  { to: '/admin/eval', label: '评估', group: '评估与监控', icon: 'eval' },
+  { to: '/admin/monitoring', label: '监控', group: '评估与监控', icon: 'monitor' },
+  { to: '/admin/settings', label: '设置', group: '系统', icon: 'settings' },
+  { to: '/admin/logs', label: '日志', group: '系统', icon: 'logs' },
+]
+
+/** 命令面板条目(原 NAV_PAGES 的唯一来源) */
+export const COMMAND_PALETTE_PAGES = NAV_ITEMS.map(({ to, label, group }) => ({ to, label, group }))
+
+/** 路由 → 面包屑标签(原 ROUTE_LABELS 的唯一来源) */
+export const ROUTE_LABELS: Record<string, string> = Object.fromEntries(
+  NAV_ITEMS.map(i => [i.to, i.label]),
+)
+
+/** 侧栏分组标题的历史显示名(仅侧栏使用;与面板分组名不同时在此映射) */
+const SIDEBAR_GROUP_TITLES: Record<string, string> = {
+  系统: '系统设置',
+}
+
+/**
+ * 侧栏分组(原 NAV_SECTIONS 的唯一来源)。
+ * 仪表盘(group=概览)在 AdminLayout 中独立渲染于顶部,不进分组循环。
+ */
+export const NAV_SECTIONS = (() => {
+  const sidebarItems = NAV_ITEMS.filter(i => !i.hideFromSidebar && i.group !== '概览')
+  const titles: string[] = []
+  for (const i of sidebarItems) {
+    const title = SIDEBAR_GROUP_TITLES[i.group] ?? i.group
+    if (!titles.includes(title)) titles.push(title)
+  }
+  return titles.map(title => ({
+    title,
+    items: sidebarItems
+      .filter(i => (SIDEBAR_GROUP_TITLES[i.group] ?? i.group) === title)
+      .map(({ to, label, icon }) => ({ to, label, icon })),
+  }))
+})()

frontend/src/admin/pages/Backtest.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,369 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 回测管理页面(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 功能:
+ * - 回测配置: 联赛(下拉)、日期范围、场数、模式
+ * - 结果汇总: 已评分数、1X2 准确率、比分 RMSE、平均置信度
+ * - 逐场明细: 实际比分 vs 预测比分,正误标记
+ * - 模型评估: 各模型历史准确率(/eval/summary)
+ *
+ * 注意: 回测会对每场完赛比赛各发起一次 LLM 预测,成本高,需管理员密钥。
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { triggerBacktest, fetchEvalSummary, fetchLeagues } from '../dal'
+import type { BacktestRequest, BacktestSummary, EvalSummary, League } from '../types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner } from '../components'
+import TeamSideTag from '../../components/TeamSideTag'
+
+interface BacktestResultRow {
+  match_id: number
+  league_code?: string | null
+  home_team: string
+  away_team: string
+  home_team_zh?: string | null
+  away_team_zh?: string | null
+  match_date?: string | null
+  actual_score: string
+  actual_1x2?: string
+  pred_home?: number | null
+  pred_away?: number | null
+  pred_1x2?: string | null
+  subjective_confidence?: number | null
+  correct_1x2: boolean
+}
+
+interface BacktestResponse {
+  summary: BacktestSummary
+  results: BacktestResultRow[]
+}
+
+const OUTCOME_LABEL: Record<string, string> = { '1': '主胜', X: '平局', '2': '客胜' }
+
+/** 导出回测明细为 CSV(UTF-8 BOM,Excel 可直接打开) */
+function exportCsv(rows: BacktestResultRow[]) {
+  const header = [
+    "比赛日期", "联赛", "主队", "客队", "实际比分", "实际1X2",
+    "预测主球", "预测客球", "预测1X2", "主观置信度", "1X2命中",
+  ]
+  const lines = [header.join(",")]
+  for (const r of rows) {
+    lines.push([
+      fmtDate(r.match_date), r.league_code ?? "",
+      csvCell(r.home_team_zh || r.home_team), csvCell(r.away_team_zh || r.away_team),
+      r.actual_score, r.actual_1x2 ?? "",
+      r.pred_home ?? "", r.pred_away ?? "", r.pred_1x2 ?? "",
+      r.subjective_confidence != null ? String(Math.round(r.subjective_confidence * 100)) : "",
+      r.correct_1x2 ? "是" : "否",
+    ].join(","))
+  }
+  const blob = new Blob(["" + lines.join("\n")], { type: "text/csv;charset=utf-8" })
+  const url = URL.createObjectURL(blob)
+  const a = document.createElement("a")
+  a.href = url
+  a.download = `backtest_${new Date().toLocaleDateString('sv-SE')}.csv`
+  a.click()
+  URL.revokeObjectURL(url)
+}
+
+/** CSV 字段转义:含逗号/引号/换行时加引号 */
+function csvCell(v: string): string {
+  return /[",\n]/.test(v) ? `"${v.replace(/"/g, '""')}"` : v
+}
+
+function fmtDate(s?: string | null): string {
+  if (!s) return '—'
+  return new Date(s).toLocaleDateString('sv-SE')
+}
+
+export default function BacktestPage() {
+  const [leagues, setLeagues] = useState<League[]>([])
+  const [leagueId, setLeagueId] = useState('')
+  const [dateFrom, setDateFrom] = useState('')
+  const [dateTo, setDateTo] = useState('')
+  const [limit, setLimit] = useState(20)
+  const [mode] = useState<'multi'>('multi')
+  const [model, setModel] = useState('')
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [result, setResult] = useState<BacktestResponse | null>(null)
+  const [evalSummary, setEvalSummary] = useState<EvalSummary | null>(null)
+  const [evalLoading, setEvalLoading] = useState(false)
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    fetchLeagues().then(setLeagues)
+    loadEval()
+  }, [])
+
+  async function loadEval() {
+    setEvalLoading(true)
+    try {
+      setEvalSummary(await fetchEvalSummary())
+    } finally {
+      setEvalLoading(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  async function handleBacktest(e: React.FormEvent) {
+    e.preventDefault()
+    setLoading(true)
+    setError(null)
+    setResult(null)
+    try {
+      const req: BacktestRequest = {
+        league_id: leagueId ? parseInt(leagueId) : undefined,
+        date_from: dateFrom || undefined,
+        date_to: dateTo || undefined,
+        limit,
+        mode,
+        model: model.trim() || undefined,
+      }
+      const res = await triggerBacktest(req as BacktestRequest)
+      setResult(res as unknown as BacktestResponse)
+    } catch (err: unknown) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '回测失败')
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const summary = result?.summary
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="回测管理"
+        description="在历史数据上运行预测并评估准确率。逐场调用 LLM,成本高,建议先小场次试跑。"
+      />
+
+      <div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
+        {/* 回测配置 */}
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader title="回测配置" />
+          <CardBody>
+            <form onSubmit={handleBacktest} className="space-y-4">
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">联赛</label>
+                <select
+                  value={leagueId}
+                  onChange={e => setLeagueId(e.target.value)}
+                  className="field w-full"
+                >
+                  <option value="">全部联赛</option>
+                  {leagues.map(l => (
+                    <option key={l.id ?? l.code} value={String(l.id)}>
+                      {l.name_zh || l.name}
+                    </option>
+                  ))}
+                </select>
+              </div>
+
+              <div className="grid grid-cols-1 gap-3 sm:grid-cols-2">
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">起始日期</label>
+                  <input
+                    type="date"
+                    value={dateFrom}
+                    onChange={e => setDateFrom(e.target.value)}
+                    className="field w-full"
+                  />
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">结束日期</label>
+                  <input
+                    type="date"
+                    value={dateTo}
+                    onChange={e => setDateTo(e.target.value)}
+                    className="field w-full"
+                  />
+                </div>
+              </div>
+
+              <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3">
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">场数限制</label>
+                  <input
+                    type="number"
+                    min={1}
+                    max={200}
+                    value={limit}
+                    onChange={e => setLimit(parseInt(e.target.value) || 20)}
+                    className="field w-full"
+                  />
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">模式</label>
+                  <input
+                    type="text"
+                    value="多专家 (5 路 + 终裁)"
+                    readOnly
+                    className="field w-full bg-paper-100 text-ink-500"
+                  />
+                </div>
+              </div>
+
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">
+                  指定模型(可选,空=默认 <code className="font-mono">gpt-4o</code>)
+                </label>
+                <input
+                  type="text"
+                  value={model}
+                  onChange={e => setModel(e.target.value)}
+                  placeholder="如 deepseek-chat / 留空使用默认"
+                  className="field w-full"
+                />
+              </div>
+
+              {error && <Alert kind="error" title="回测失败" message={error} onClose={() => setError(null)} />}
+
+              <button type="submit" disabled={loading} className="btn btn-solid w-full">
+                {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 回测中,逐场预测耗时较长</>) : '开始回测'}
+              </button>
+            </form>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+
+        {/* 结果汇总 */}
+        <div className="space-y-6">
+          {summary && (
+            <Card>
+              <CardHeader
+                title="回测结果"
+                description={`模式: ${mode}${model ? ` · 模型: ${model}` : ''} · 限 ${limit} 场`}
+                action={
+                  result?.results?.length
+                    ? (<button onClick={() => exportCsv(result.results)} className="btn btn-sm">导出 CSV</button>)
+                    : undefined
+                }
+              />
+              <CardBody>
+                <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 sm:grid-cols-3">
+                  <div>
+                    <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                      {summary.scored}/{summary.total}
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">已评分 / 总场数</div>
+                  </div>
+                  <div>
+                    <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                      {summary.success}/{summary.degraded}
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                      成功 / 降级<span className="text-ink-300"> (degraded)</span>
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                  <div>
+                    <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-press">
+                      {summary.accuracy_1x2 !== undefined && summary.accuracy_1x2 !== null
+                        ? `${summary.accuracy_1x2.toFixed(1)}%`
+                        : '—'}
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">1X2 准确率</div>
+                  </div>
+                  <div>
+                    <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                      {summary.avg_score_rmse !== undefined && summary.avg_score_rmse !== null
+                        ? summary.avg_score_rmse.toFixed(2)
+                        : '—'}
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">比分 RMSE</div>
+                  </div>
+                  <div>
+                    <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                      {summary.avg_subjective_confidence !== undefined && summary.avg_subjective_confidence !== null
+                        ? `${Math.round(summary.avg_subjective_confidence * 100)}%`
+                        : '—'}
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">平均置信度</div>
+                  </div>
+                  {summary.degraded > 0 && (
+                    <div className="col-span-full border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-3 py-2 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-press-dark">
+                      有 {summary.degraded} 场预测降级(专家无有效结论),未计入准确率分子。建议检查该时段数据完整性。
+                    </div>
+                  )}
+                </div>
+              </CardBody>
+            </Card>
+          )}
+
+          {/* 模型评估 */}
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader
+              title="模型评估"
+              description="已结算预测的准确率统计"
+              action={
+                <button onClick={loadEval} disabled={evalLoading} className="btn btn-sm">
+                  {evalLoading ? (<><Spinner /> 加载中</>) : '刷新'}
+                </button>
+              }
+            />
+            <CardBody>
+              {evalSummary && evalSummary.summary?.length > 0 ? (
+                <div className="space-y-2.5">
+                  {evalSummary.summary.map((s, i) => (
+                    <div
+                      key={i}
+                      className="flex flex-col gap-1 border-b border-ink-200 pb-2.5 last:border-b-0 last:pb-0 sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:justify-between"
+                    >
+                      <span className="font-mono text-xs text-ink-700">{s.provider}/{s.model}</span>
+                      <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+                        准确率 <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+                          {s.accuracy_1x2 !== undefined && s.accuracy_1x2 !== null ? `${s.accuracy_1x2.toFixed(1)}%` : '—'}
+                        </span>
+                        <span className="ml-2">{s.total} 场</span>
+                        {s.avg_score_rmse != null && <span className="ml-2">RMSE {s.avg_score_rmse.toFixed(2)}</span>}
+                      </span>
+                    </div>
+                  ))}
+                </div>
+              ) : (
+                <p className="py-4 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">
+                  暂无评估数据。到「预测管理」完成结算后,这里会给出各模型准确率。
+                </p>
+              )}
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 逐场明细 */}
+      {result && result.results?.length > 0 && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader title="逐场明细" />
+          <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+            <div>
+              {result.results.map(r => (
+                <div
+                  key={r.match_id}
+                  className="flex flex-col gap-1.5 border-b border-ink-200 px-4 py-3 last:border-b-0 sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:gap-3 sm:px-5"
+                >
+                  <span className="w-24 flex-shrink-0 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
+                    {fmtDate(r.match_date)}
+                  </span>
+                  <span className="flex min-w-0 flex-1 items-center gap-1.5 text-sm text-ink-800">
+                    <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+                    <span className="truncate">{r.home_team_zh || r.home_team}</span>
+                    <span className="flex-shrink-0 text-ink-300">vs</span>
+                    <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+                    <span className="truncate">{r.away_team_zh || r.away_team}</span>
+                  </span>
+                  <span className="flex-shrink-0 text-xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+                    实际 <span className="font-serif font-bold text-ink-900">{r.actual_score}</span>
+                    <span className="mx-2 text-ink-200">|</span>
+                    预测 <span className={`font-serif font-bold ${r.correct_1x2 ? 'text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
+                      {r.pred_home ?? '-'}:{r.pred_away ?? '-'}
+                    </span>
+                  </span>
+                  <span className="flex-shrink-0 sm:w-16 sm:text-right">
+                    {r.correct_1x2 ? <Badge status="success">命中</Badge> : <Badge status="loss">未中</Badge>}
+                  </span>
+                </div>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/Collection.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,375 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 数据采集页面(bzzoiro 单一数据源)
+ *
+ * 三个采集任务:
+ *   events    — 比赛日程与比分
+ *   standings — 联赛积分榜
+ *   stats     — 已完赛比赛详细统计回填
+ *   all       — 依次执行以上三项
+ *
+ * 响应式布局: 移动端单列,桌面端双列
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback, useRef } from 'react'
+import { triggerCollection, fetchLeagues, fetchIngestJob } from '../dal'
+import type { IngestJob, League } from '../types'
+import type { CollectionRequest } from '../types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner } from '../components'
+
+const TASKS = [
+  { value: 'events', label: '比赛数据', desc: '赛程 / 比分 / 未开赛安排', icon: '⚽' },
+  { value: 'standings', label: '积分榜', desc: '联赛排名 / 积分 / xG差 / 近期走势', icon: '🏆' },
+  { value: 'stats', label: '统计回填', desc: '已完赛比赛的 xG / 射门 / 控球等详细统计', icon: '📊' },
+  { value: 'all', label: '全量采集', desc: '依次采集比赛 + 积分榜 + 统计回填', icon: '⏵⏵' },
+] as const
+
+type TaskUIStatus = 'idle' | 'running' | 'done' | 'error'
+
+const TERMINAL_STATUSES: ReadonlySet<string> = new Set(['success', 'failed'])
+
+export default function CollectionPage() {
+  const [leagues, setLeagues] = useState<League[]>([])
+  const [task, setTask] = useState<string>('events')
+  const [leagueCode, setLeagueCode] = useState('')
+
+  // 从 URL 查询参数预填充(支持从「数据完整性」页跳转)
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const sp = new URLSearchParams(window.location.search)
+    const taskParam = sp.get('task')
+    const leagueParam = sp.get('league')
+    if (taskParam && ['events', 'standings', 'stats', 'all'].includes(taskParam)) {
+      setTask(taskParam)
+    }
+    if (leagueParam) {
+      setLeagueCode(leagueParam)
+    }
+  }, [])
+  const [dateFrom, setDateFrom] = useState('')
+  const [dateTo, setDateTo] = useState('')
+  const [season, setSeason] = useState('')
+  const [ingestStatus, setIngestStatus] = useState('')
+  const [limit, setLimit] = useState(100)
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+
+  // 任务进度反馈:跟踪真实 ingest_job 状态
+  const [taskStatus, setTaskStatus] = useState<TaskUIStatus>('idle')
+  const [jobId, setJobId] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [jobInfo, setJobInfo] = useState<IngestJob | null>(null)
+  const [taskStartedAt, setTaskStartedAt] = useState<number | null>(null)
+  const pollRef = useRef<ReturnType<typeof setInterval> | null>(null)
+
+  const loadLeagues = useCallback(async () => {
+    const lg = await fetchLeagues()
+    setLeagues(lg)
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => { loadLeagues() }, [loadLeagues])
+
+  // 轮询采集 job 直到终态(success/failed)
+  const stopPolling = useCallback(() => {
+    if (pollRef.current) { clearInterval(pollRef.current); pollRef.current = null }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => () => stopPolling(), [stopPolling])
+
+  const startJobPolling = useCallback((id: string) => {
+    stopPolling()
+    const tick = async () => {
+      try {
+        const job = await fetchIngestJob(id)
+        setJobInfo(job)
+        if (TERMINAL_STATUSES.has(job.status)) {
+          setTaskStatus(job.status === 'success' ? 'done' : 'error')
+          stopPolling()
+        }
+      } catch { /* 单次轮询失败不影响后续 */ }
+    }
+    tick()
+    pollRef.current = setInterval(tick, 3_000)
+  }, [stopPolling])
+
+  const isEventsTask = task === 'events' || task === 'all'
+
+  // 友好汇总 job.result
+  const jobSummary = (j: IngestJob | null): { title: string; detail: string } | null => {
+    if (!j) return null
+    if (j.status === 'failed') {
+      return { title: '采集失败', detail: j.error || '采集任务异常终止,请到「系统日志」查看详细堆栈。' }
+    }
+    if (j.status !== 'success') return null
+    const r = j.result as Record<string, unknown> | null
+    if (!r) return { title: '采集完成', detail: '任务成功(无汇总数据)。' }
+    const ev = r.events as Record<string, unknown> | undefined
+    const evTotal = ev ? (ev.total_inserted as number ?? 0) + (ev.total_updated as number ?? 0) : 0
+    const st = r.standings as Record<string, unknown> | undefined
+    const stTotal = st ? (st.total_upserted as number ?? 0) : 0
+    const stats = r.stats as Record<string, unknown> | undefined
+    const statsTotal = stats ? (stats.created as number ?? 0) + (stats.updated as number ?? 0) : 0
+    const evErr = (ev?.errors as string[] | undefined)?.length ?? 0
+    const stErr = (st?.errors as string[] | undefined)?.length ?? 0
+    const statsErr = (stats?.errors as string[] | undefined)?.length ?? 0
+    const totalErr = evErr + stErr + statsErr
+    const parts: string[] = []
+    if (ev) parts.push(`比赛 +${evTotal}`)
+    if (st) parts.push(`积分榜 +${stTotal}`)
+    if (stats) parts.push(`统计 +${statsTotal}`)
+    const detail = parts.length
+      ? `共更新: ${parts.join(' / ')}${totalErr ? `,错误 ${totalErr} 条(见日志)` : ''}`
+      : '任务成功'
+    return { title: '采集完成', detail }
+  }
+
+  async function handleSubmit(e: React.FormEvent) {
+    e.preventDefault()
+    setError(null)
+    setJobInfo(null)
+    setJobId(null)
+    setLoading(true)
+    setTaskStatus('running')
+    setTaskStartedAt(Date.now())
+
+    try {
+      const body: CollectionRequest = {
+        source: 'bzzoiro',
+        leagues: leagueCode ? [leagueCode] : undefined,
+        task: task as CollectionRequest['task'],
+        limit,
+        season: season || undefined,
+        status: ingestStatus || undefined,
+        date_from: isEventsTask ? dateFrom || undefined : undefined,
+        date_to: isEventsTask ? dateTo || undefined : undefined,
+      }
+      const res = await triggerCollection(body)
+      const id: string | undefined = res?.job_id
+      if (id) {
+        setJobId(id)
+        startJobPolling(id)
+      } else {
+        // 后端未返回 job_id(旧版兼容):退化为原逻辑
+        setTimeout(() => { setTaskStatus('done'); }, 30_000)
+      }
+    } catch (err: unknown) {
+      setTaskStatus('error')
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '采集触发失败')
+      stopPolling()
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const elapsed = taskStartedAt ? Math.round((Date.now() - taskStartedAt) / 1000) : 0
+  const summary = jobInfo ? jobSummary(jobInfo) : null
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="数据采集"
+        description="bzzoiro 单一数据源:比赛数据、积分榜、比赛统计三条管线。采集为后台异步执行。"
+      />
+
+      <div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
+        {/* 采集表单 */}
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader title="新建采集任务" />
+          <CardBody>
+            <form onSubmit={handleSubmit} className="space-y-4">
+              {/* 任务类型 */}
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">采集任务</label>
+                <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-2 sm:grid-cols-4">
+                  {TASKS.map(t => (
+                    <button
+                      key={t.value}
+                      type="button"
+                      onClick={() => setTask(t.value)}
+                      className={`rounded-lg border px-3 py-2 text-left text-xs transition-colors ${
+                        task === t.value
+                          ? 'border-brand-500 bg-brand-50 text-brand-700'
+                          : 'border-ink-200 text-ink-600 hover:border-ink-300'
+                      }`}
+                    >
+                      <span className="mr-1">{t.icon}</span>
+                      <span className="font-medium">{t.label}</span>
+                    </button>
+                  ))}
+                </div>
+              </div>
+
+              {/* 联赛选择 */}
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">联赛</label>
+                <select
+                  value={leagueCode}
+                  onChange={e => setLeagueCode(e.target.value)}
+                  className="field w-full"
+                >
+                  <option value="">全部联赛</option>
+                  {leagues.map(l => (
+                    <option key={l.code} value={l.code}>{l.name_zh || l.name}</option>
+                  ))}
+                </select>
+              </div>
+
+              {/* events/all 任务专用: 比赛状态 + 日期 */}
+              {isEventsTask && (
+                <>
+                  <div>
+                    <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">比赛状态</label>
+                    <select
+                      value={ingestStatus}
+                      onChange={e => setIngestStatus(e.target.value)}
+                      className="field w-full"
+                    >
+                      <option value="">全部(已完赛 + 未开赛)</option>
+                      <option value="finished">仅已完赛</option>
+                      <option value="scheduled">仅未开赛</option>
+                    </select>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="grid grid-cols-1 gap-3 sm:grid-cols-2">
+                    <div>
+                      <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">起始日期</label>
+                      <input
+                        type="date"
+                        value={dateFrom}
+                        onChange={e => setDateFrom(e.target.value)}
+                        className="field w-full"
+                      />
+                    </div>
+                    <div>
+                      <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">结束日期</label>
+                      <input
+                        type="date"
+                        value={dateTo}
+                        onChange={e => setDateTo(e.target.value)}
+                        className="field w-full"
+                      />
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                </>
+              )}
+
+              {/* standings 任务专用: 赛季 */}
+              {(task === 'standings') && (
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">赛季(留空取当前赛季)</label>
+                  <input
+                    type="text"
+                    value={season}
+                    onChange={e => setSeason(e.target.value)}
+                    placeholder="如 2026-2027"
+                    className="field w-full"
+                  />
+                </div>
+              )}
+
+              {/* stats 任务专用: 回填数量 */}
+              {(task === 'stats') && (
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">单次最大回填比赛数(1-500)</label>
+                  <input
+                    type="number"
+                    min={1}
+                    max={500}
+                    value={limit}
+                    onChange={e => setLimit(parseInt(e.target.value) || 100)}
+                    className="field w-full"
+                  />
+                  <p className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                    仅回填已有 source_event_id 且无统计的比赛(增量),上游限速约 1.2 秒/次。
+                  </p>
+                </div>
+              )}
+
+              {/* 消息提示 */}
+              {error && <Alert kind="error" title="采集失败" message={error} onClose={() => setError(null)} />}
+              {summary && (
+                <Alert
+                  kind={jobInfo?.status === 'success' ? 'ok' : 'error'}
+                  title={summary.title}
+                  message={summary.detail}
+                />
+              )}
+
+              {/* 提交按钮 */}
+              <button type="submit" disabled={loading} className="btn btn-solid w-full">
+                {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 采集中</>) : '触发采集'}
+              </button>
+            </form>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+
+        {/* 任务状态 + 数据源说明 */}
+        <div className="space-y-6">
+          {/* 任务进度 */}
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader title="任务状态" />
+            <CardBody>
+              {taskStatus === 'idle' && (
+                <p className="text-xs text-ink-400">尚未触发任务。</p>
+              )}
+              {taskStatus === 'running' && (
+                <div className="space-y-3">
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs text-ink-700">
+                    <Spinner />
+                    <span>任务执行中{jobId ? `(job ${jobId.slice(0, 8)}…)` : ''},已运行 {elapsed}s…</span>
+                  </div>
+                  <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                    后台异步执行,关闭页面不影响结果。每 3 秒自动轮询进度。
+                  </p>
+                </div>
+              )}
+              {taskStatus === 'done' && (
+                <div className="space-y-2">
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs text-emerald-700">
+                    <span className="inline-block h-2 w-2 rounded-full bg-emerald-500" />
+                    <span>采集完成{jobId ? `(job ${jobId.slice(0, 8)}…)` : ''}</span>
+                  </div>
+                  {summary && <p className="text-2xs text-ink-500">{summary.detail}</p>}
+                </div>
+              )}
+              {taskStatus === 'error' && (
+                <div className="space-y-1">
+                  <p className="text-xs text-press">采集失败{jobId ? `(job ${jobId.slice(0, 8)}…)` : ''}</p>
+                  {jobInfo?.error && (
+                    <p className="text-2xs text-ink-500">{jobInfo.error.slice(0, 200)}</p>
+                  )}
+                </div>
+              )}
+              {jobInfo?.created_at && (
+                <p className="mt-2 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                  创建于 {new Date(jobInfo.created_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })}
+                  {jobInfo.finished_at && ` · 完成于 ${new Date(jobInfo.finished_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })}`}
+                </p>
+              )}
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+
+          {/* 数据源说明 */}
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader title="采集任务说明" />
+            <CardBody>
+              <div className="space-y-3">
+                {TASKS.map(t => (
+                  <div key={t.value} className="border-b border-ink-200 px-1 py-3 last:border-b-0">
+                    <div className="flex items-center gap-3">
+                      <span>{t.icon}</span>
+                      <Badge status="info">{t.label}</Badge>
+                      <p className="text-xs text-ink-600">{t.desc}</p>
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                ))}
+              </div>
+
+              <p className="mt-4 border-l-2 border-ink-300 pl-3 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
+                采集接口需要管理员登录(401 表示登录已过期)。
+                各管线基于 bzzoiro 单一数据源(Understat / injuries 已移除)。
+                「统计回填」依赖「比赛数据」管线写入的 source_event_id,请先完成比赛采集。
+              </p>
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/Config.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,267 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 系统配置管理页面(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 功能:
+ * - 登录与鉴权说明(ADMIN_PASSWORD,HttpOnly 会话 Cookie)
+ * - 显示当前 .env 配置(脱敏;后端暂无配置端点,为静态说明)
+ * - 配置修改指南
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
+import { fetchSystemConfig } from '../dal'
+import { changePassword, fetchAuthState, UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT } from '../api'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner, SkeletonBlock } from '../components'
+
+export default function ConfigPage() {
+  const [config, setConfig] = useState<any[]>([])
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [passwordOrigin, setPasswordOrigin] = useState<'db' | 'env' | 'none' | null>(null)
+
+  // 修改密码表单
+  const [currentPwd, setCurrentPwd] = useState('')
+  const [newPwd, setNewPwd] = useState('')
+  const [confirmPwd, setConfirmPwd] = useState('')
+  const [pwdBusy, setPwdBusy] = useState(false)
+  const [pwdNotice, setPwdNotice] = useState<{ ok: boolean; text: string } | null>(null)
+
+  const loadConfig = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    try {
+      const data = await fetchSystemConfig()
+      setConfig(data)
+    } catch {
+      setConfig([])
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    loadConfig()
+    fetchAuthState()
+      .then(s => setPasswordOrigin(s.password_origin ?? null))
+      .catch(() => setPasswordOrigin(null))
+  }, [loadConfig])
+
+  async function handleChangePassword(e: React.FormEvent) {
+    e.preventDefault()
+    setPwdNotice(null)
+    if (newPwd !== confirmPwd) {
+      setPwdNotice({ ok: false, text: '两次输入的新密码不一致' })
+      return
+    }
+    setPwdBusy(true)
+    try {
+      const res = await changePassword(currentPwd, newPwd)
+      setPwdNotice({ ok: true, text: res.message })
+      // 密码即会话密钥,修改后所有会话失效:主动切回登录页
+      setTimeout(() => window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT)), 1500)
+    } catch (err) {
+      setPwdNotice({ ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '修改失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setPwdBusy(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="系统配置"
+        description="登录鉴权说明与系统参数查看。敏感配置一律通过服务器 .env 文件管理。"
+      />
+
+      {/* 登录与鉴权 */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader
+          title="登录与鉴权"
+          description="本后台通过密码登录保护,会话以 HttpOnly Cookie 保存,有效期默认 7 天"
+        />
+        <CardBody>
+          <Alert kind="ok" title="已通过密码登录" />
+          <p className="mt-3 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
+            密码初始来自服务器 <code className="font-mono">.env</code> 的{' '}
+            <code className="font-mono">ADMIN_PASSWORD</code>(启动时自动转为哈希),在下方修改后以{' '}
+            <code className="font-mono">scrypt</code> 哈希安全存入数据库并立即生效,明文不再留存。
+            密码即会话签名密钥,修改后所有已登录会话失效,需用新密码重新登录。
+            脚本直连接口可改用 <code className="font-mono">ADMIN_API_KEY</code>(请求头 X-API-Key)。
+          </p>
+          {passwordOrigin && (
+            <p className="mt-2 flex items-center gap-2 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+              当前密码来源:
+              {passwordOrigin === 'db' ? (
+                <Badge status="success">数据库(scrypt 哈希)</Badge>
+              ) : passwordOrigin === 'env' ? (
+                <Badge status="info">.env 初始值</Badge>
+              ) : (
+                <Badge status="error">未配置</Badge>
+              )}
+            </p>
+          )}
+
+          {/* 修改密码表单 */}
+          <form onSubmit={handleChangePassword} className="mt-5 space-y-3 border-t border-ink-200 pt-4">
+            <div className="grid gap-3 sm:grid-cols-3">
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1 block text-2xs text-ink-500">当前密码</label>
+                <input
+                  type="password"
+                  value={currentPwd}
+                  onChange={e => setCurrentPwd(e.target.value)}
+                  autoComplete="current-password"
+                  className="field w-full"
+                />
+              </div>
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1 block text-2xs text-ink-500">新密码(至少 8 位)</label>
+                <input
+                  type="password"
+                  value={newPwd}
+                  onChange={e => setNewPwd(e.target.value)}
+                  autoComplete="new-password"
+                  className="field w-full"
+                />
+              </div>
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1 block text-2xs text-ink-500">确认新密码</label>
+                <input
+                  type="password"
+                  value={confirmPwd}
+                  onChange={e => setConfirmPwd(e.target.value)}
+                  autoComplete="new-password"
+                  className="field w-full"
+                />
+              </div>
+            </div>
+
+            {pwdNotice && (
+              <Alert kind={pwdNotice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={pwdNotice.text} />
+            )}
+
+            <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-2">
+              <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">修改成功后会自动退出登录,请用新密码重新登录。</p>
+              <button
+                type="submit"
+                disabled={pwdBusy || !currentPwd || !newPwd || !confirmPwd}
+                className="btn btn-solid btn-sm flex-shrink-0"
+              >
+                {pwdBusy ? (<><Spinner /> 修改中</>) : '修改密码'}
+              </button>
+            </div>
+          </form>
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+
+      {/* 快速导航 */}
+      <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-2">
+        <a
+          href="/admin/data-sources"
+          className="group flex items-center justify-between border border-ink-300 p-4 transition-colors hover:border-ink-900 hover:bg-paper-100"
+        >
+          <div>
+            <div className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">数据源配置</div>
+            <div className="mt-0.5 text-2xs text-ink-500">管理采集源 API Key</div>
+          </div>
+          <span className="text-ink-300 transition-colors group-hover:text-press" aria-hidden="true">→</span>
+        </a>
+        <a
+          href="/admin/llm-config"
+          className="group flex items-center justify-between border border-ink-300 p-4 transition-colors hover:border-ink-900 hover:bg-paper-100"
+        >
+          <div>
+            <div className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">LLM 配置</div>
+            <div className="mt-0.5 text-2xs text-ink-500">管理模型连接与统计</div>
+          </div>
+          <span className="text-ink-300 transition-colors group-hover:text-press" aria-hidden="true">→</span>
+        </a>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 配置列表 */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader
+          title="当前配置"
+          description="脱敏展示,实际值在服务器 .env 文件中"
+          action={
+            <button onClick={loadConfig} disabled={loading} className="btn btn-sm">
+              {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 加载中</>) : '刷新'}
+            </button>
+          }
+        />
+        <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+          {loading ? (
+            <div className="space-y-3 px-4 sm:px-5">
+              {[1, 2, 3, 4, 5].map(i => (
+                <SkeletonBlock key={i} className="h-9 w-full" />
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          ) : config.length > 0 ? (
+            <div>
+              {config.map(item => (
+                <div
+                  key={item.key}
+                  className="flex flex-col gap-1 border-b border-ink-200 px-4 py-2.5 last:border-b-0 sm:grid sm:grid-cols-[minmax(0,2fr)_minmax(0,3fr)_minmax(0,2fr)] sm:items-baseline sm:gap-4 sm:px-5"
+                >
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                    <span className="font-mono text-xs text-ink-800">{item.key}</span>
+                    {item.is_sensitive && <Badge status="warning">敏感</Badge>}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="break-all font-mono text-2xs text-ink-500">{item.value_masked}</div>
+                  <div className="text-2xs text-ink-400">{item.description}</div>
+                </div>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          ) : (
+            <p className="py-8 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">无法加载配置信息</p>
+          )}
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+
+      {/* 修改指南 */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader title="修改配置指南" />
+        <CardBody className="space-y-5">
+          <div>
+            <h4 className="mb-2 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">通过 SSH 修改 .env</h4>
+            <pre className="overflow-x-auto border border-ink-200 bg-paper-100 p-3 font-mono text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-700">
+{`# 连接到部署主机
+ssh user@your-server-ip
+
+# 进入项目目录
+cd /vol2/1000/Docker/Profeto
+
+# 编辑 .env 文件
+nano .env
+
+# 修改后重启后端服务
+docker compose restart api
+
+# 查看日志确认生效
+docker compose logs -f api`}
+            </pre>
+          </div>
+
+          <div>
+            <h4 className="mb-2 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">常用配置项说明</h4>
+            <div className="space-y-2">
+              {[
+                ['LLM_API_KEY', 'LLM 服务商的 API 密钥,用于调用大模型'],
+                ['LLM_MODEL', '使用的模型名称,如 gpt-4o、claude-3-5-sonnet'],
+                ['LLM_BASE_URL', 'API 基础地址,支持兼容 OpenAI 协议的服务商'],
+                ['ADMIN_PASSWORD', '管理后台登录密码,修改后重启 api 容器生效'],
+                ['ADMIN_API_KEY', '脚本直连接口的鉴权密钥(请求头 X-API-Key)'],
+                ['BZZOIRO_KEY', 'Bzzoiro 数据源 API 密钥'],
+                ['DATABASE_URL', 'PostgreSQL 数据库连接字符串'],
+              ].map(([key, desc]) => (
+                <div key={key} className="flex items-start gap-2.5">
+                  <code className="flex-shrink-0 border border-ink-200 bg-paper-100 px-1.5 py-0.5 font-mono text-2xs text-ink-800">
+                    {key}
+                  </code>
+                  <span className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">{desc}</span>
+                </div>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/Dashboard.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,178 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 仪表盘(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 展示:
+ * - 数据流水线状态(采集 → 预测 → 评估,每步的实际数据量)
+ * - 近期预测活动(24h / 7d / 总计)
+ * - 快捷操作入口(带工作流引导)
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
+import { fetchAdminStats, fetchIngestStatus, fetchDashboard } from '../dal'
+import type { AdminStats, IngestSourceStatus, DashboardStats } from '../types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Alert, SkeletonBlock } from '../components'
+
+/** 工作流步骤卡片 */
+const STEPS = [
+  { to: '/admin/collection', step: '1', title: '采集数据', desc: 'bzzoiro: 赛程 / 积分榜 / 比赛统计(xG、射门、控球等)', icon: '◈' },
+  { to: '/admin/predictions', step: '2', title: '运行预测', desc: '调 LLM 多专家生成比分预测', icon: '◆' },
+  { to: '/admin/eval', step: '3', title: '评估准确率', desc: '结算后查看 1X2 命中率与校准度', icon: '◈' },
+]
+
+export default function Dashboard() {
+  const [stats, setStats] = useState<AdminStats | null>(null)
+  const [ingest, setIngest] = useState<IngestSourceStatus[]>([])
+  const [dash, setDash] = useState<DashboardStats | null>(null)
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    const [s, i, d] = await Promise.allSettled([
+      fetchAdminStats(),
+      fetchIngestStatus(),
+      fetchDashboard(),
+    ])
+    if (s.status === 'fulfilled') setStats(s.value)
+    if (i.status === 'fulfilled') setIngest(i.value.sources)
+    if (d.status === 'fulfilled') setDash(d.value)
+    setLoading(false)
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => { load() }, [load])
+
+  const sourceByName = Object.fromEntries(ingest.map(s => [s.name, s]))
+  const bzzoiro = sourceByName['bzzoiro']
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      {/* ── 工作流引导(采集 → 预测 → 评估) ── */}
+      <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-3">
+        {STEPS.map((s, i) => (
+          <a
+            key={s.to}
+            href={s.to}
+            className="group border border-ink-300 p-4 transition-colors hover:border-ink-900 hover:bg-paper-100"
+          >
+            <div className="flex items-center gap-2.5">
+              <span className="flex h-7 w-7 items-center justify-center border border-ink-900 font-serif text-xs font-bold text-ink-900">
+                {s.step}
+              </span>
+              <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">{s.title}</span>
+              <span className="ml-auto text-ink-300 transition-colors group-hover:text-press" aria-hidden="true">→</span>
+            </div>
+            <p className="mt-2 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">{s.desc}</p>
+            {i < STEPS.length - 1 && <span className="sr-only">下一步</span>}
+          </a>
+        ))}
+      </div>
+
+      {/* ── 数据源健康一览 ── */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader
+          title="数据源健康"
+          description="各源最近采集时间与数据量(只读快照,详细配置见「数据源」页)"
+        />
+        <CardBody className="px-0">
+          {loading ? (
+            <div className="space-y-2 px-4 sm:px-5">
+              {[1, 2, 3].map(i => <SkeletonBlock key={i} className="h-8 w-full" />)}
+            </div>
+          ) : (
+            <div>
+              {[
+                { name: 'bzzoiro', label: 'Bzzoiro', st: bzzoiro },
+              ].map(({ name, label, st }) => {
+                const hasData = st && st.recent_count > 0
+                const keyOk = st?.key_configured !== false
+                return (
+                  <div key={name} className="flex items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 px-4 py-2.5 last:border-b-0 sm:px-5">
+                    <span className="text-xs font-medium text-ink-700">{label}</span>
+                    <span className="flex items-center gap-3 text-2xs">
+                      {hasData ? (
+                        <>
+                          <span className="tabular-nums text-ink-500">{st.recent_count.toLocaleString()} 条</span>
+                          <span className="text-ink-400">{st.last_success_at ? new Date(st.last_success_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit', hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', hour12: false }) : ''}</span>
+                        </>
+                      ) : keyOk ? (
+                        <span className="text-ink-400">无数据</span>
+                      ) : (
+                        <span className="text-press">未配置 Key</span>
+                      )}
+                      <span
+                        aria-hidden="true"
+                        className={`inline-block h-1.5 w-1.5 ${hasData && keyOk ? 'bg-ink-900' : 'bg-press'}`}
+                      />
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                )
+              })}
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+
+      {/* ── 近期预测活动 ── */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader title="近期预测活动" description="预测 API 的调用量统计" />
+        <CardBody>
+          {stats ? (
+            <div className="space-y-4">
+              <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-center">
+                <div>
+                  <div className="font-serif text-3xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.predictions.last_24h}</div>
+                  <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">近 24 小时</div>
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <div className="font-serif text-3xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.predictions.last_7d}</div>
+                  <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">近 7 天</div>
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <div className="font-serif text-3xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.predictions.total}</div>
+                  <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">累计</div>
+                </div>
+              </div>
+              {/* F3 修复: 真实比赛计数(非 limit=100 近似) */}
+              <div className="grid grid-cols-4 gap-3 border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-center">
+                <div>
+                  <div className="font-serif text-xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.matches?.total ?? 0}</div>
+                  <div className="mt-0.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">比赛总数</div>
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <div className="font-serif text-xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.matches?.finished ?? 0}</div>
+                  <div className="mt-0.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">已完赛</div>
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <div className="font-serif text-xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.stats?.total ?? 0}</div>
+                  <div className="mt-0.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">统计行</div>
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <div className="font-serif text-xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.standings?.total ?? 0}</div>
+                  <div className="mt-0.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">积分榜</div>
+                </div>
+              </div>
+            </div>
+          ) : (
+            <div className="flex justify-center py-4"><SkeletonBlock className="h-12 w-64" /></div>
+          )}
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+
+      {/* ── 已入库联赛 ── */}
+      {dash && dash.leagues.length > 0 && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader title="已入库联赛" />
+          <CardBody>
+            <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
+              {dash.leagues.map(l => (
+                <span key={l.code} className="border border-ink-200 px-2.5 py-1 text-xs text-ink-700">
+                  {l.name_zh || l.name}
+                  <span className="ml-1.5 font-mono text-2xs text-ink-400">{l.code}</span>
+                </span>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/DataCompleteness.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,241 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 数据完整性分析页
+ *
+ * 回答三个问题:
+ *   1. 数据是否齐全(各联赛比赛/统计/积分榜量级)
+ *   2. 字段是否齐全(每张统计表各字段非空率)
+ *   3. 覆盖是否新鲜(最近一场/最近一次采集)
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback, useRef } from 'react'
+import { fetchDataCompleteness } from '../dal'
+import type { DataCompletenessResponse } from '../dal'
+import {
+  Card, CardBody, CardHeader, SectionHeader, Alert,
+  ProgressBar, Spinner, EmptyState,
+} from '../components'
+
+const FIELD_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
+  xg: 'xG 预期进球',
+  shots: '射门',
+  possession: '控球率',
+  corners: '角球',
+  fouls: '犯规',
+  big_chances: '绝佳机会',
+  cards: '红黄牌',
+}
+
+function pctColor(pct: number): string {
+  if (pct >= 80) return 'bg-emerald-500'
+  if (pct >= 50) return 'bg-amber-500'
+  return 'bg-rose-500'
+}
+
+/** 根据问题描述生成可操作的修复链接 */
+function getIssueAction(issue: string): { href: string; label: string; code: string } | null {
+  // 提取联赛代码(大写字母+数字,如 E0, SP1)
+  const codeMatch = issue.match(/\b([A-Z]{1,2}\d?)\b/)
+  const code = codeMatch ? codeMatch[1] : ''
+  if (!code) return null
+
+  if (issue.includes('无已完赛比赛')) {
+    return { href: `/admin/collection?task=events&league=${code}`, label: '去采集', code }
+  }
+  if (issue.includes('无统计回填') || issue.includes('统计覆盖率')) {
+    return { href: `/admin/collection?task=stats&league=${code}`, label: '去回填', code }
+  }
+  if (issue.includes('无积分榜')) {
+    return { href: `/admin/collection?task=standings&league=${code}`, label: '去采集', code }
+  }
+  return null
+}
+
+export default function DataCompletenessPage() {
+  const [data, setData] = useState<DataCompletenessResponse | null>(null)
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [highlightedLeague, setHighlightedLeague] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const leagueRefs = useRef<Record<string, HTMLDivElement | null>>({})
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    setError(null)
+    try {
+      const d = await fetchDataCompleteness()
+      setData(d)
+    } catch (err) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '加载失败')
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => { load() }, [load])
+
+  // 点击问题项 → 滚动到对应联赛卡片并高亮
+  const scrollToLeague = useCallback((code: string) => {
+    setHighlightedLeague(code)
+    // 使用 requestAnimationFrame 确保 DOM 已更新
+    requestAnimationFrame(() => {
+      const el = leagueRefs.current[code]
+      if (el) {
+        el.scrollIntoView({ behavior: 'smooth', block: 'start' })
+      }
+    })
+    // 5秒后移除高亮
+    setTimeout(() => setHighlightedLeague(null), 5000)
+  }, [])
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="数据完整性"
+        description="按联赛统计 bzzoiro 数据采集覆盖度。每 5 秒自动刷新,或点击右上角按钮手动刷新。"
+        action={
+          <button onClick={load} disabled={loading} className="btn-sm btn-outline">
+            {loading ? <><Spinner /> 刷新中</> : '刷新'}
+          </button>
+        }
+      />
+
+      {error && <Alert kind="error" title="加载失败" message={error} onClose={() => setError(null)} />}
+
+      {loading && !data && (
+        <div className="flex justify-center py-12"><Spinner /></div>
+      )}
+
+      {data && (
+        <>
+          {/* 全局概览 */}
+          <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-3">
+            <Card>
+              <CardBody className="text-center">
+                <p className="text-2xl font-bold text-ink-900">{data.totals.finished_matches}</p>
+                <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">已完赛比赛(总计)</p>
+              </CardBody>
+            </Card>
+            <Card>
+              <CardBody className="text-center">
+                <p className="text-2xl font-bold text-ink-900">{data.totals.stats_rows}</p>
+                <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">统计行数</p>
+              </CardBody>
+            </Card>
+            <Card>
+              <CardBody className="text-center">
+                <p className="text-2xl font-bold text-ink-900">
+                  {data.totals.stats_coverage_pct}%
+                </p>
+                <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">统计覆盖率(有统计 / 已完赛)</p>
+              </CardBody>
+            </Card>
+          </div>
+
+          {/* 健康问题(可操作) */}
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader title="健康摘要" />
+            <CardBody>
+              <div className="space-y-2">
+                {data.issues.map((issue, i) => {
+                  const action = getIssueAction(issue)
+                  return (
+                    <Alert
+                      key={i}
+                      kind={issue.includes('良好') ? 'ok' : issue.includes('建议') || issue.includes('仅') ? 'warning' : 'error'}
+                      title={issue.includes('良好') ? '数据良好' : '需要关注'}
+                      message={issue}
+                      action={action ? (
+                        <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                          <button
+                            onClick={() => scrollToLeague(action.code)}
+                            className="btn btn-sm whitespace-nowrap"
+                          >
+                            定位
+                          </button>
+                          <a href={action.href} className="btn btn-sm whitespace-nowrap">
+                            {action.label}
+                          </a>
+                        </div>
+                      ) : undefined}
+                    />
+                  )
+                })}
+              </div>
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+
+          {/* 各联赛详情 */}
+          <div className="space-y-4">
+            {data.leagues.map(league => {
+              const finished = league.matches.finished
+              const statsPct = finished > 0 ? Math.round((league.stats.rows / finished) * 100) : 0
+              const isHighlighted = highlightedLeague === league.code
+              return (
+                <div
+                  key={league.code}
+                  ref={el => { leagueRefs.current[league.code] = el }}
+                  className={`transition-all duration-500 ${isHighlighted ? 'ring-2 ring-press bg-press-wash/40 scale-[1.01]' : ''}`}
+                >
+                <Card>
+                  <CardHeader
+                    title={league.name}
+                    description={[
+                      league.country,
+                      `已完赛 ${finished} 场 / 未开赛 ${league.matches.scheduled} 场`,
+                      league.matches.latest_match ? `最近: ${league.matches.latest_match.slice(0, 10)}` : '',
+                      league.standings.rows > 0 ? `积分榜 ${league.standings.rows} 队` : '',
+                    ].filter(Boolean).join(' · ')}
+                  />
+                  <CardBody className="space-y-4">
+                    {/* 统计覆盖率进度条 */}
+                    <div>
+                      <div className="mb-1 flex items-center justify-between text-xs">
+                        <span className="text-ink-600">统计回填覆盖率</span>
+                        <span className="font-medium text-ink-900">
+                          {league.stats.rows} / {finished} ({statsPct}%)
+                        </span>
+                      </div>
+                      <ProgressBar value={statsPct} />
+                    </div>
+
+                    {/* 字段覆盖率矩阵 */}
+                    {league.stats.rows > 0 ? (
+                      <div>
+                        <p className="mb-2 text-xs font-medium text-ink-600">字段覆盖率(有值行数 / 总行数)</p>
+                        <div className="grid gap-2 sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-4">
+                          {Object.entries(league.stats.fields).map(([key, info]) => (
+                            <div key={key} className="rounded border border-ink-100 px-3 py-2">
+                              <div className="mb-1 flex items-center justify-between">
+                                <span className="text-xs text-ink-600">{FIELD_LABELS[key] ?? key}</span>
+                                <span className="text-xs font-medium text-ink-900">{info.pct}%</span>
+                              </div>
+                              <div className="h-1.5 w-full overflow-hidden rounded-full bg-ink-100">
+                                <div
+                                  className={`h-full rounded-full ${pctColor(info.pct)}`}
+                                  style={{ width: `${info.pct}%` }}
+                                />
+                              </div>
+                              <p className="mt-0.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">{info.count} / {league.stats.rows} 行</p>
+                            </div>
+                          ))}
+                        </div>
+                      </div>
+                    ) : finished > 0 ? (
+                      <Alert kind="warning" title="缺少统计数据" message="该联赛有已完赛比赛但无统计行,请运行「统计回填」采集。" />
+                    ) : (
+                      <Alert kind="warning" title="缺少比赛数据" message="该联赛暂无已完赛比赛,请运行「比赛数据」采集。" />
+                    )}
+                  </CardBody>
+                </Card>
+                </div>
+              )
+            })}
+          </div>
+
+          <p className="text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">
+            生成时间: {new Date(data.generated_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })}
+          </p>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/DataPipeline.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,199 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 数据管线管理页(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 功能:
+ * - 采集失败记录列表(可重试)
+ * - 数据质量检查结果
+ * - 手动触发质量检查
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
+import {
+  fetchDataQuality,
+  runDataQualityCheck,
+  fetchIngestFailures,
+  retryIngestFailure,
+} from '../dal'
+import type { IngestFailureItem, DataQualityCheckItem } from '../dal'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner } from '../components'
+
+export default function DataPipelinePage() {
+  const [quality, setQuality] = useState<{ failures: IngestFailureItem[]; checks: DataQualityCheckItem[] } | null>(null)
+  const [failures, setFailures] = useState<IngestFailureItem[]>([])
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [running, setRunning] = useState(false)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [notice, setNotice] = useState<{ ok: boolean; text: string } | null>(null)
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    setError(null)
+    try {
+      const [q, f] = await Promise.all([fetchDataQuality(), fetchIngestFailures()])
+      setQuality(q)
+      setFailures(f)
+    } catch (err) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '加载失败')
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => { load() }, [load])
+
+  const handleRunCheck = async () => {
+    setRunning(true)
+    setNotice(null)
+    try {
+      const res = await runDataQualityCheck()
+      const failed = res.checks.filter(c => !c.passed)
+      setNotice({
+        ok: failed.length === 0,
+        text: failed.length === 0
+          ? '数据质量检查通过'
+          : `检查完成: ${failed.length} 项未通过`,
+      })
+      await load()
+    } catch {
+      setNotice({ ok: false, text: '质量检查执行失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setRunning(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleRetry = async (id: number) => {
+    setNotice(null)
+    try {
+      const res = await retryIngestFailure(id)
+      setNotice({ ok: true, text: res.message })
+      await load()
+    } catch {
+      setNotice({ ok: false, text: '重试操作失败' })
+    }
+  }
+
+  const pendingFailures = failures.filter(f => f.status === 'pending' || f.status === 'retrying')
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="数据管线"
+        description="采集失败重试、数据质量检查与监控"
+        action={
+          <button onClick={handleRunCheck} disabled={running} className="btn btn-sm">
+            {running ? <><Spinner /> 检查中</> : '运行质量检查'}
+          </button>
+        }
+      />
+
+      {notice && (
+        <Alert kind={notice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={notice.text} onClose={() => setNotice(null)} />
+      )}
+
+      {error && <Alert kind="error" title="加载失败" message={error} onClose={() => setError(null)} />}
+
+      {loading && (
+        <div className="flex justify-center py-12"><Spinner /></div>
+      )}
+
+      {!loading && (
+        <>
+          {/* 采集失败记录 */}
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader
+              title="采集失败记录"
+              description={pendingFailures.length > 0 ? `${pendingFailures.length} 条待处理` : '暂无待处理失败记录'}
+            />
+            <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+              {failures.length === 0 ? (
+                <p className="py-8 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无采集失败记录</p>
+              ) : (
+                <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+                  <table className="w-full min-w-[640px] text-sm">
+                    <thead>
+                      <tr className="border-b border-ink-200 text-left text-ink-500">
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">来源</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">实体类型</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">错误类型</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">重试次数</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">状态</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">操作</th>
+                      </tr>
+                    </thead>
+                    <tbody>
+                      {failures.map(f => (
+                        <tr key={f.id} className="border-b border-ink-100 hover:bg-paper-100">
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2 text-xs text-ink-700">{f.source}</td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2 text-xs text-ink-600">{f.entity_type}</td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2 text-xs text-ink-600">{f.error_type}</td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2 text-xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">{f.retry_count}</td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2">
+                            <Badge status={f.status === 'resolved' ? 'success' : f.status === 'pending' ? 'warning' : 'info'}>
+                              {f.status}
+                            </Badge>
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2">
+                            {(f.status === 'pending' || f.status === 'retrying') && (
+                              <button onClick={() => handleRetry(f.id)} className="btn btn-sm">
+                                重试
+                              </button>
+                            )}
+                          </td>
+                        </tr>
+                      ))}
+                    </tbody>
+                  </table>
+                </div>
+              )}
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+
+          {/* 数据质量检查 */}
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader title="数据质量检查" description="最近 20 条检查结果" />
+            <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+              {quality?.checks.length === 0 ? (
+                <p className="py-8 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无质量检查记录,点击右上角「运行质量检查」触发</p>
+              ) : (
+                <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+                  <table className="w-full min-w-[560px] text-sm">
+                    <thead>
+                      <tr className="border-b border-ink-200 text-left text-ink-500">
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">检查项</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">实体</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">结果</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">严重度</th>
+                        <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">时间</th>
+                      </tr>
+                    </thead>
+                    <tbody>
+                      {quality?.checks.map(c => (
+                        <tr key={c.id} className="border-b border-ink-100 hover:bg-paper-100">
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2 text-xs text-ink-700">{c.check_name}</td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2 text-xs text-ink-600">{c.entity_type}</td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2">
+                            <Badge status={c.passed ? 'success' : 'error'}>
+                              {c.passed ? '通过' : '未通过'}
+                            </Badge>
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2">
+                            <Badge status={c.severity === 'warning' ? 'warning' : c.severity === 'error' ? 'error' : 'info'}>
+                              {c.severity}
+                            </Badge>
+                          </td>
+                          <td className="px-4 py-2 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                            {c.checked_at ? new Date(c.checked_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false }) : '—'}
+                          </td>
+                        </tr>
+                      ))}
+                    </tbody>
+                  </table>
+                </div>
+              )}
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+        </>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/DataSources.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,376 @@
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
+import {
+  fetchDataSourceStatuses,
+  fetchIngestStatus,
+  fetchAdminStats,
+  fetchKeyRingStatus,
+  resetKeyRingCooldown,
+  updateSetting,
+  clearSetting,
+  testDataSourceConnection,
+} from '../dal'
+import type { DataSourceStatus, DataSourceTestResult, IngestSourceStatus, AdminStats } from '../types'
+import type { KeyRingStatusResponse } from '../dal'
+import SettingRow from '../SettingRow'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner, SkeletonBlock } from '../components'
+
+function formatTime(iso: string | null): string {
+  if (!iso) return '暂无记录'
+  try {
+    return new Date(iso).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })
+  } catch {
+    return iso
+  }
+}
+
+export default function DataSourcesPage() {
+  const [sources, setSources] = useState<DataSourceStatus[]>([])
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [loadError, setLoadError] = useState('')
+  const [ingestStats, setIngestStats] = useState<Record<string, IngestSourceStatus>>({})
+  const [ingestLoading, setIngestLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [stats, setStats] = useState<AdminStats | null>(null)
+
+  const [testingSource, setTestingSource] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [testResults, setTestResults] = useState<Record<string, DataSourceTestResult>>({})
+
+  const [editingKey, setEditingKey] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [busyKey, setBusyKey] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [rowNotice, setRowNotice] = useState<{ key: string; ok: boolean; text: string } | null>(null)
+  const [keyRing, setKeyRing] = useState<KeyRingStatusResponse | null>(null)
+  const [ringLoading, setRingLoading] = useState(false)
+
+  const loadSources = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    setLoadError('')
+    try {
+      setSources(await fetchDataSourceStatuses())
+    } catch (err) {
+      setLoadError(err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '加载失败')
+      setSources([])
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  // 健康状态(只读,与配置加载并行;失败不阻塞配置页)
+  const loadIngest = useCallback(async () => {
+    setIngestLoading(true)
+    try {
+      const { sources } = await fetchIngestStatus()
+      setIngestStats(Object.fromEntries(sources.map(x => [x.name, x])))
+    } catch {
+      /* ignore */
+    } finally {
+      setIngestLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  // 管理区统计(只读)
+  const loadStats = useCallback(async () => {
+    try {
+      setStats(await fetchAdminStats())
+    } catch {
+      /* ignore */
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  // Key Ring 状态(只读)
+  const loadKeyRing = useCallback(async () => {
+    setRingLoading(true)
+    try {
+      setKeyRing(await fetchKeyRingStatus())
+    } catch {
+      /* ignore */
+    } finally {
+      setRingLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    loadSources()
+    loadIngest()
+    loadStats()
+    loadKeyRing()
+  }, [loadSources, loadIngest, loadStats, loadKeyRing])
+
+  async function handleTest(sourceName: string) {
+    setTestingSource(sourceName)
+    setTestResults(prev => ({ ...prev, [sourceName]: { ok: false, status: null, latency_ms: 0, detail: '测试中...' } }))
+    try {
+      const result = await testDataSourceConnection(sourceName)
+      setTestResults(prev => ({ ...prev, [sourceName]: result }))
+    } catch (err: unknown) {
+      const msg = err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '连接失败'
+      setTestResults(prev => ({ ...prev, [sourceName]: { ok: false, status: null, latency_ms: 0, detail: msg } }))
+    } finally {
+      setTestingSource(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  // 渲染数据源健康块(最近采集 + 异常提示)
+  function renderHealth(sourceName: string) {
+    const st = ingestStats[sourceName]
+    if (!st) {
+      return (
+        <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs">
+          <span className="text-ink-400">最近成功采集</span>
+          <span className="text-ink-400">{ingestLoading ? '加载中...' : '暂无数据'}</span>
+        </div>
+      )
+    }
+    const ago = st.last_success_at ? formatTime(st.last_success_at) : '暂无记录'
+    const issues: string[] = []
+    if (st.status === 'key_not_configured') issues.push('未配置 API Key')
+    else if (st.status === 'no_data') issues.push('本地无数据,建议补采')
+    if (st.last_failure) issues.push('近期有采集失败')
+    return (
+      <div className="space-y-1.5 border-t border-ink-200 pt-3">
+        <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs">
+          <span className="text-ink-400">最近成功采集</span>
+          <span className="text-ink-600">{ago}</span>
+        </div>
+        <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs">
+          <span className="text-ink-400">已入库(近期)</span>
+          <span className="text-ink-600">{st.recent_count.toLocaleString()} 条</span>
+        </div>
+        {st.note && <p className="text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-400">{st.note}</p>}
+        {issues.length > 0 && (
+          <p className="border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-2 py-1 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-press-dark">
+            {issues.join(' / ')} — 请前往「数据采集」补采
+          </p>
+        )}
+        {st.last_failure && (
+          <p className="truncate text-2xs text-ink-400" title={st.last_failure.detail}>
+            最近失败: {st.last_failure.detail.slice(0, 60)}
+          </p>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    )
+  }
+
+  async function handleSave(key: string, value: string) {
+    setBusyKey(key)
+    setRowNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await updateSetting(key, value)
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: true, text: '已保存,立即生效' })
+      setEditingKey(null)
+      await loadSources()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '保存失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setBusyKey(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  async function handleClear(key: string) {
+    setBusyKey(key)
+    setRowNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await clearSetting(key)
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: true, text: '已清除数据库覆盖,回落 .env 默认值' })
+      await loadSources()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '清除失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setBusyKey(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  async function handleResetCooldown() {
+    if (!window.confirm('确定重置所有 key 的冷却状态?这可能使被限流的 key 立即恢复请求。')) return
+    try {
+      const res = await resetKeyRingCooldown()
+      setKeyRing(res.stats)
+      setRowNotice({ key: "__ring", ok: true, text: res.message })
+    } catch (err) {
+      setRowNotice({ key: "__ring", ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '重置失败' })
+    }
+  }
+
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="数据源管理"
+        description="数据采集源的 API 配置、健康状态与连通性测试。"
+      />
+
+      {loadError && (
+        <Alert kind="error" title="无法加载数据源配置" message={loadError} />
+      )}
+
+      {/* 数据源卡片 */}
+      {loading ? (
+        <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3">
+          {[1, 2, 3].map(i => (
+            <Card key={i}>
+              <CardBody>
+                <div className="space-y-3">
+                  <SkeletonBlock className="h-4 w-24" />
+                  <SkeletonBlock className="h-3 w-32" />
+                  <SkeletonBlock className="h-8 w-full" />
+                </div>
+              </CardBody>
+            </Card>
+          ))}
+        </div>
+      ) : (
+        <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3">
+          {sources.map(source => {
+            const result = testResults[source.name]
+            const cardKeys = source.settings.map(s => s.key)
+            return (
+              <Card key={source.name}>
+                <CardBody className="space-y-4">
+                  <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-x-2 gap-y-1 border-b border-ink-200 pb-3">
+                    <h3 className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">{source.label}</h3>
+                    <Badge status={source.key_configured ? 'success' : 'error'}>
+                      {source.key_configured ? '已就绪' : '缺配置'}
+                    </Badge>
+                  </div>
+
+                  <p className="text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">{source.description}</p>
+
+                  {source.settings.length > 0 ? (
+                    <div>
+                      {source.settings.map(setting => (
+                        <SettingRow
+                          key={setting.key}
+                          setting={setting}
+                          editing={editingKey === setting.key}
+                          busy={busyKey === setting.key}
+                          onEdit={() => { setEditingKey(setting.key); setRowNotice(null) }}
+                          onCancel={() => setEditingKey(null)}
+                          onSave={v => handleSave(setting.key, v)}
+                          onClear={() => handleClear(setting.key)}
+                        />
+                      ))}
+                    </div>
+                  ) : (
+                    <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">无需 API Key</p>
+                  )}
+
+                  {rowNotice && cardKeys.includes(rowNotice.key) && (
+                    <Alert kind={rowNotice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={rowNotice.text} />
+                  )}
+
+                  {/* 数据源健康:最近采集 + 异常提示 */}
+                  {renderHealth(source.name)}
+
+                  {result && testingSource !== source.name && (
+                    <Alert
+                      kind={result.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'}
+                      title={result.ok ? `连接成功(${result.latency_ms}ms)` : result.status ? `HTTP ${result.status}` : '连接失败'}
+                      message={result.ok ? undefined : result.detail}
+                    />
+                  )}
+
+                  <button
+                    onClick={() => handleTest(source.name)}
+                    disabled={testingSource === source.name}
+                    className="btn btn-sm w-full"
+                  >
+                    {testingSource === source.name ? (<><Spinner /> 测试中</>) : '测试连接'}
+                  </button>
+                </CardBody>
+              </Card>
+            )
+          })}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* API Key 轮换环状态 */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader
+          title="API Key 轮换环"
+          description={keyRing?.has_multiple
+            ? `已配置 ${keyRing.total} 个 key,遇到限流(429)自动切换;冷却 ${keyRing.cooldown_seconds}s`
+            : '当前仅 1 个 key,无法轮换。建议配置多个 key 以提高限流容忍度'
+          }
+          action={
+            <button
+              onClick={handleResetCooldown}
+              disabled={ringLoading}
+              className="btn-sm btn-outline"
+            >
+              重置冷却
+            </button>
+          }
+        />
+        <CardBody>
+          {ringLoading && !keyRing ? (
+            <SkeletonBlock className="h-10 w-full" />
+          ) : keyRing && keyRing.total > 0 ? (
+            <div className="space-y-2">
+              {keyRing.keys.map((k, i) => {
+                const isBlocked = k.blocked_remaining > 0
+                return (
+                  <div key={i} className={`flex items-center justify-between gap-3 border-b border-ink-100 py-2 last:border-b-0 ${isBlocked ? 'opacity-70' : ''}`}>
+                    <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                      <span className={`inline-block h-2 w-2 rounded-full ${isBlocked ? 'bg-amber-500' : 'bg-emerald-500'}`} />
+                      <span className="font-mono text-xs text-ink-700">{k.masked}</span>
+                      {i === keyRing.active_index && (
+                        <span className="rounded bg-ink-900 px-1.5 py-0.5 text-2xs text-paper-500">当前</span>
+                      )}
+                    </div>
+                    <span className={`text-2xs tabular-nums ${isBlocked ? 'text-amber-600' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
+                      {isBlocked ? `冷却中 ${k.blocked_remaining.toFixed(0)}s` : '可用'}
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                )
+              })}
+            </div>
+          ) : (
+            <p className="text-xs text-ink-400">暂无 key 配置</p>
+          )}
+          <p className="mt-3 border-l-2 border-ink-300 pl-3 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
+            在「Bzzoiro」配置项中用<b>逗号 / 分号 / 换行</b>分隔多个 key 即可启用轮换。遇到 429 自动标记当前 key 为冷却并立即切换到下一个 key;
+            全部 key 冷却时等待最早恢复的 key。「重置冷却」可紧急恢复所有 key。
+          </p>
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+
+      {/* 近期活动统计(只读) */}
+      {stats && stats.predictions && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader title="近期预测活动" description="过去 24 小时 / 7 天的预测次数" />
+          <CardBody>
+            <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4 text-center">
+              <div>
+                <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.predictions.last_24h}</div>
+                <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">近 24 小时</div>
+              </div>
+              <div>
+                <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.predictions.last_7d}</div>
+                <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">近 7 天</div>
+              </div>
+              <div>
+                <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{stats.predictions.total}</div>
+                <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">总计</div>
+              </div>
+            </div>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader title="配置说明" />
+        <CardBody>
+          <div className="space-y-3 text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+            <p className="border-l-2 border-ink-300 pl-3">
+              保存的配置存于数据库 <code className="font-mono">app_settings</code> 并<b>立即生效</b>,优先于 <code className="font-mono">.env</code>;「回落 .env」删除覆盖值。
+            </p>
+            <p className="border-l-2 border-ink-300 pl-3">
+              「最近成功采集」为只读健康快照(不触发采集);近似数据已在行内标注。伤停源会区分「未配置 Key / 无数据 / 有数据」。
+            </p>
+            <p className="border-l-2 border-ink-300 pl-3">
+              「测试连接」真实请求上游一次;异常提示会引导前往「数据采集」补采,避免在空数据上误操作。
+            </p>
+          </div>
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/EvalPage.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,212 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 评估汇总页(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 功能:
+ * - 按 provider / model / prompt_version / mode / league_code 筛选
+ * - 展示汇总统计卡片(已结算/已评估/跳过数)
+ * - 准确率对比表格
+ * - 空态与加载态
+ */
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { fetchEvalSummary, fetchLeagues } from '../dal'
+import type { EvalSummary } from '../types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, StatCard, Badge, DataTable, Alert, Spinner, EmptyText } from '../components'
+
+interface Filters {
+  provider: string
+  model: string
+  prompt_version: string
+  mode: string
+  league_code: string
+}
+
+const EMPTY_FILTERS: Filters = { provider: '', model: '', prompt_version: '', mode: '', league_code: '' }
+
+export default function EvalPage() {
+  const [filters, setFilters] = useState<Filters>(EMPTY_FILTERS)
+  const [leagues, setLeagues] = useState<Array<{ code: string; name: string }>>([])
+  const [data, setData] = useState<EvalSummary | null>(null)
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    fetchLeagues()
+      .then(l => setLeagues(l.map(x => ({ code: x.code, name: x.name }))))
+      .catch(() => setLeagues([]))
+  }, [])
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    setError(null)
+    try {
+      const params: Record<string, string> = {}
+      if (filters.provider) params.provider = filters.provider
+      if (filters.model) params.model = filters.model
+      if (filters.prompt_version) params.prompt_version = filters.prompt_version
+      if (filters.mode) params.mode = filters.mode
+      if (filters.league_code) params.league_code = filters.league_code
+      const result = await fetchEvalSummary(params)
+      setData(result)
+    } catch (err: unknown) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '加载失败')
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [filters])
+
+  useEffect(() => { load() }, [load])
+
+  const handleChange = (key: keyof Filters) => (e: React.ChangeEvent<HTMLSelectElement | HTMLInputElement>) => {
+    setFilters(f => ({ ...f, [key]: e.target.value }))
+  }
+
+  const handleReset = () => setFilters(EMPTY_FILTERS)
+
+  const summary = data?.summary ?? []
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      {/* 筛选控件 */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader title="筛选条件" description="按提供商 / 模型 / 版本 / 模式 / 联赛过滤评估数据" />
+        <CardBody>
+          <div className="grid grid-cols-1 gap-3 sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-5">
+            <label className="block">
+              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">提供商</span>
+              <input
+                type="text"
+                value={filters.provider}
+                onChange={handleChange('provider')}
+                placeholder="如 openai"
+                className="mt-1 w-full border border-ink-300 bg-paper-50 px-2.5 py-1.5 text-sm text-ink-900 placeholder:text-ink-300 focus:border-ink-900 focus:outline-none"
+              />
+            </label>
+            <label className="block">
+              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">模型</span>
+              <input
+                type="text"
+                value={filters.model}
+                onChange={handleChange('model')}
+                placeholder="如 gpt-4o"
+                className="mt-1 w-full border border-ink-300 bg-paper-50 px-2.5 py-1.5 text-sm text-ink-900 placeholder:text-ink-300 focus:border-ink-900 focus:outline-none"
+              />
+            </label>
+            <label className="block">
+              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">Prompt 版本</span>
+              <input
+                type="text"
+                value={filters.prompt_version}
+                onChange={handleChange('prompt_version')}
+                placeholder="如 v1"
+                className="mt-1 w-full border border-ink-300 bg-paper-50 px-2.5 py-1.5 text-sm text-ink-900 placeholder:text-ink-300 focus:border-ink-900 focus:outline-none"
+              />
+            </label>
+            <label className="block">
+              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">模式</span>
+              <select
+                value={filters.mode}
+                onChange={handleChange('mode')}
+                className="mt-1 w-full border border-ink-300 bg-paper-50 px-2.5 py-1.5 text-sm text-ink-900 focus:border-ink-900 focus:outline-none"
+              >
+                <option value="">全部</option>
+                <option value="single">single</option>
+                <option value="multi">multi</option>
+              </select>
+            </label>
+            <label className="block">
+              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">联赛</span>
+              <select
+                value={filters.league_code}
+                onChange={handleChange('league_code')}
+                className="mt-1 w-full border border-ink-300 bg-paper-50 px-2.5 py-1.5 text-sm text-ink-900 focus:border-ink-900 focus:outline-none"
+              >
+                <option value="">全部</option>
+                {leagues.map(l => (
+                  <option key={l.code} value={l.code}>{l.name ?? l.code}</option>
+                ))}
+              </select>
+            </label>
+          </div>
+          <div className="mt-3 flex gap-2">
+            <button onClick={load} disabled={loading} className="btn btn-sm">
+              {loading ? '加载中…' : '应用筛选'}
+            </button>
+            <button onClick={handleReset} disabled={loading} className="btn btn-sm btn-ghost">
+              重置
+            </button>
+          </div>
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+
+      {/* 错误态 */}
+      {error && <Alert kind="error" title="加载失败" message={error} />}
+
+      {/* 汇总统计 */}
+      {data && (
+        <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-4 sm:grid-cols-4">
+          <StatCard label="已结算总数" value={data.total_settled} hint="含 degraded" />
+          <StatCard label="筛选后已结算" value={data.filtered_settled} hint="应用筛选条件后" />
+          <StatCard label="实际评估" value={data.evaluated} hint="status=success 且比分齐全" />
+          <StatCard label="跳过 degraded" value={data.skipped_degraded} hint="不计入准确率" />
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 准确率表格 */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader
+          title="准确率对比"
+          description={!loading && summary.length > 0 ? `共 ${summary.length} 组` : "按 provider × 模型 × prompt_version 聚合,仅统计有效预测"}
+        />
+        <CardBody>
+          {loading ? (
+            <div className="flex items-center justify-center py-12">
+              <Spinner />
+            </div>
+          ) : summary.length === 0 ? (
+            <EmptyText text="暂无评估数据,请调整筛选条件或先完成预测与结算" />
+          ) : (
+            <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+            <DataTable
+              columns={[
+                { key: 'provider', label: '提供商' },
+                { key: 'model', label: '模型' },
+                { key: 'prompt_version', label: '版本', render: (row: any) => (
+                  <span className="font-mono text-2xs">{row.prompt_version ?? '—'}</span>
+                ) },
+                { key: 'total', label: '评估条数' },
+                { key: 'accuracy_1x2', label: '1X2 准确率', render: (row: any) => (
+                  <span className="tabular-nums">{row.accuracy_1x2 != null ? `${row.accuracy_1x2}%` : '—'}</span>
+                ) },
+                { key: 'avg_score_rmse', label: '比分 RMSE', render: (row: any) => (
+                  <span className="tabular-nums">{row.avg_score_rmse != null ? row.avg_score_rmse.toFixed(2) : '—'}</span>
+                ) },
+                { key: 'avg_subjective_confidence', label: '平均置信度', render: (row: any) => (
+                  <span className="tabular-nums">{row.avg_subjective_confidence != null ? row.avg_subjective_confidence.toFixed(2) : '—'}</span>
+                ) },
+                { key: 'calibration', label: '置信度校准(桶命中率)', render: (row: any) => (
+                  row.calibration ? (
+                    <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-x-3 gap-y-1 text-2xs">
+                      {Object.entries(row.calibration).map(([name, b]: [string, any]) => (
+                        <span key={name} className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
+                          <span className="text-ink-400">{name}:</span>
+                          <span className="tabular-nums font-medium">
+                            {b.hit_rate != null ? `${b.hit_rate}%` : '—'}
+                          </span>
+                          <span className="text-ink-300">({b.total})</span>
+                        </span>
+                      ))}
+                    </div>
+                  ) : '—'
+                ) },
+              ]}
+              data={summary}
+              rowKey={(row: any) => `${row.provider}-${row.model}-${row.prompt_version ?? ''}`}
+              emptyText="暂无评估数据"
+            />
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/LLMConfig.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,275 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - LLM 配置管理页面(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 功能:
+ * - 显示当前 LLM 配置(provider, model, base_url;后端暂无配置端点,当前值取自 .env 约定)
+ * - 测试 LLM 连接(会真实调用一次 /predict,产生 LLM 调用费用)
+ * - 显示 LLM 使用统计(从预测记录聚合)
+ * - 可用模型列表
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
+import { testLLMConnection, fetchLLMUsageStats, fetchSettings, fetchLLMModels, updateSetting, clearSetting } from '../dal'
+import type { LLMUsageStats } from '../types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner, SkeletonBlock } from '../components'
+import SettingRow from '../SettingRow'
+import AgentLLMCard from '../AgentLLMCard'
+import type { DataSourceSetting } from '../types'
+
+const LLM_SETTING_KEYS = ['LLM_API_KEY', 'LLM_BASE_URL', 'LLM_MODEL']
+
+export default function LLMConfigPage() {
+  const [stats, setStats] = useState<LLMUsageStats | null>(null)
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [testing, setTesting] = useState(false)
+  const [testResult, setTestResult] = useState<{ success: boolean; message: string } | null>(null)
+
+  // LLM 连接配置(运行时配置,DB 覆盖 .env)
+  const [llmSettings, setLlmSettings] = useState<DataSourceSetting[]>([])
+  const [settingsLoading, setSettingsLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [editingKey, setEditingKey] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [busyKey, setBusyKey] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [rowNotice, setRowNotice] = useState<{ key: string; ok: boolean; text: string } | null>(null)
+
+  const loadStats = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    try {
+      const data = await fetchLLMUsageStats()
+      setStats(data)
+    } catch {
+      setStats(null)
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  const loadSettings = useCallback(async () => {
+    setSettingsLoading(true)
+    try {
+      const all = await fetchSettings()
+      setLlmSettings(all.filter(x => LLM_SETTING_KEYS.includes(x.key)))
+    } catch {
+      setLlmSettings([])
+    } finally {
+      setSettingsLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    loadStats()
+    loadSettings()
+  }, [loadStats, loadSettings])
+
+  /** 供 LLM_MODEL 行内检测:探测当前服务可用模型,失败抛错由行内展示 */
+  const detectLLMModels = useCallback(async (): Promise<string[]> => {
+    const r = await fetchLLMModels()
+    if (!r.ok) throw new Error(r.detail)
+    return r.models
+  }, [])
+
+  async function handleSave(key: string, value: string) {
+    setBusyKey(key)
+    setRowNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await updateSetting(key, value)
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: true, text: '已保存,立即生效' })
+      setEditingKey(null)
+      await loadSettings()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '保存失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setBusyKey(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  async function handleClear(key: string) {
+    setBusyKey(key)
+    setRowNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await clearSetting(key)
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: true, text: '已清除数据库覆盖,回落 .env 默认值' })
+      await loadSettings()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '清除失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setBusyKey(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  async function handleTest() {
+    setTesting(true)
+    setTestResult(null)
+    try {
+      await testLLMConnection()
+      setTestResult({ success: true, message: 'LLM 连接测试成功' })
+    } catch (err: unknown) {
+      const msg = err instanceof Error ? err.message : 'LLM 连接测试失败'
+      setTestResult({ success: false, message: msg })
+    } finally {
+      setTesting(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="LLM 配置"
+        description="大语言模型连接状态与使用统计。模型切换通过修改 .env 并重启服务完成。"
+      />
+
+      <div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
+        {/* LLM 连接配置 */}
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader
+            title="连接配置"
+            description="保存到数据库并立即生效,优先于服务器 .env"
+            action={
+              <button onClick={loadSettings} disabled={settingsLoading} className="btn btn-sm">
+                {settingsLoading ? (<><Spinner /> 加载中</>) : '刷新'}
+              </button>
+            }
+          />
+          <CardBody>
+            {settingsLoading ? (
+              <div className="space-y-3">
+                {[1, 2, 3].map(i => <SkeletonBlock key={i} className="h-9 w-full" />)}
+              </div>
+            ) : (
+              <div>
+                {llmSettings.map(setting => (
+                  <SettingRow
+                    key={setting.key}
+                    setting={setting}
+                    editing={editingKey === setting.key}
+                    busy={busyKey === setting.key}
+                    onEdit={() => {
+                      setEditingKey(setting.key)
+                      setRowNotice(null)
+                    }}
+                    onCancel={() => setEditingKey(null)}
+                    onSave={v => handleSave(setting.key, v)}
+                    onClear={() => handleClear(setting.key)}
+                    detectModels={setting.key === 'LLM_MODEL' ? detectLLMModels : undefined}
+                  />
+                ))}
+              </div>
+            )}
+
+            {rowNotice && (
+              <div className="mt-3">
+                <Alert kind={rowNotice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={rowNotice.text} />
+              </div>
+            )}
+
+            <p className="mt-3 border-l-2 border-ink-300 pl-3 text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
+              模式: 多专家 (5 路 + 终裁)。填入可连通的 OpenAI 兼容服务(如 DeepSeek、
+              智谱、通义或任意网关)后点下方「测试 LLM 连接」验证。
+            </p>
+
+            {/* 测试连接 */}
+            {testResult && (
+              <div className="mt-4">
+                <Alert
+                  kind={testResult.success ? 'ok' : 'error'}
+                  title={testResult.success ? '连接正常' : '连接失败'}
+                  message={testResult.success ? undefined : testResult.message}
+                />
+              </div>
+            )}
+
+            <button onClick={handleTest} disabled={testing} className="btn btn-sm mt-4 w-full">
+              {testing ? (<><Spinner /> 测试中</>) : '测试 LLM 连接'}
+            </button>
+            <p className="mt-2 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">
+              测试会真实调用一次 LLM 预测,产生费用。
+            </p>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+
+        {/* 使用统计 */}
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader
+            title="使用统计"
+            description="从最近预测记录聚合"
+            action={
+              <button onClick={loadStats} disabled={loading} className="btn btn-sm">
+                {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 加载中</>) : '刷新'}
+              </button>
+            }
+          />
+          <CardBody>
+            {loading ? (
+              <div className="space-y-3">
+                <SkeletonBlock className="h-16 w-full" />
+                <SkeletonBlock className="h-16 w-full" />
+              </div>
+            ) : stats ? (
+              <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4">
+                <div className="border-t-2 border-ink-900 pt-3 text-center">
+                  <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                    {stats.total_predictions}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">总预测数</div>
+                </div>
+                <div className="border-t-2 border-ink-900 pt-3 text-center">
+                  <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                    {stats.avg_latency_ms > 0 ? `${(stats.avg_latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s` : '—'}
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">平均延迟</div>
+                </div>
+                <div className="border-t-2 border-press pt-3 text-center">
+                  <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-press">
+                    {stats.success_rate.toFixed(0)}%
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">有效率</div>
+                </div>
+              </div>
+            ) : (
+              <p className="py-6 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无使用统计数据</p>
+            )}
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 专家与终裁独立配置 */}
+      <AgentLLMCard />
+
+      {/* 最近预测 */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader title="最近预测记录" />
+        <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+          {loading ? (
+            <div className="space-y-2 px-4 sm:px-5">
+              {[1, 2, 3].map(i => (
+                <SkeletonBlock key={i} className="h-10 w-full" />
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          ) : stats && stats.recent_predictions.length > 0 ? (
+            <div>
+              {stats.recent_predictions.map(p => (
+                <div
+                  key={p.id}
+                  className="flex flex-col gap-1.5 border-b border-ink-200 px-4 py-2.5 last:border-b-0 sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:justify-between sm:px-5"
+                >
+                  <div className="flex items-baseline gap-3">
+                    <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">#{p.id}</span>
+                    <span className="text-xs text-ink-800">比赛 #{p.match_id}</span>
+                    <span className="font-mono text-2xs text-ink-500">{p.model}</span>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-3">
+                    <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
+                      {p.created_at ? new Date(p.created_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit', hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit' }) : '—'}
+                    </span>
+                    {p.status === 'success' ? <Badge status="success">成功</Badge> : <Badge status="error">失败</Badge>}
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          ) : (
+            <p className="py-8 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无预测记录</p>
+          )}
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/Logs.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,171 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 系统日志页面(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 查看应用运行日志(内存缓冲,最新在前):
+ * - 级别筛选 + 关键字搜索
+ * - 自动刷新(10s)可开关
+ * - 缓冲上限 2000 条,进程重启后清零
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback, useRef } from 'react'
+import { fetchLogs } from '../dal'
+import type { LogEntry } from '../types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner, SkeletonBlock } from '../components'
+
+const LEVELS = ['', 'INFO', 'WARNING', 'ERROR'] as const
+
+const LEVEL_BADGE: Record<string, { status: 'success' | 'info' | 'warning' | 'error'; text: string }> = {
+  DEBUG: { status: 'info', text: 'DEBUG' },
+  INFO: { status: 'info', text: 'INFO' },
+  WARNING: { status: 'warning', text: 'WARN' },
+  ERROR: { status: 'error', text: 'ERROR' },
+  CRITICAL: { status: 'error', text: 'FATAL' },
+}
+
+function fmtTs(ts: number): string {
+  return new Date(ts * 1000).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })
+}
+
+export default function LogsPage() {
+  const [entries, setEntries] = useState<LogEntry[]>([])
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [error, setError] = useState('')
+  const [level, setLevel] = useState<string>('')
+  const [keyword, setKeyword] = useState('')
+  const [autoRefresh, setAutoRefresh] = useState(true)
+  const timerRef = useRef<ReturnType<typeof setInterval> | null>(null)
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    try {
+      const d = await fetchLogs({ level: level || undefined, keyword: keyword || undefined, limit: 300 })
+      setEntries(d.entries)
+      setError('')
+    } catch (err) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '加载失败')
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [level, keyword])
+
+  // 筛选条件变化 → 立即拉取
+  useEffect(() => {
+    load()
+  }, [load])
+
+  const scrollRef = useRef<HTMLDivElement>(null)
+  const userScrolledUp = useRef(false)
+
+  // 检测用户是否向上滚动过
+  const handleScroll = () => {
+    const el = scrollRef.current
+    if (!el) return
+    const atBottom = el.scrollHeight - el.scrollTop - el.clientHeight < 50
+    userScrolledUp.current = !atBottom
+  }
+
+  // 加载后自动滚动到底部(仅当用户未向上滚动时)
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (autoRefresh && !userScrolledUp.current && scrollRef.current) {
+      scrollRef.current.scrollTop = scrollRef.current.scrollHeight
+    }
+  }, [entries, autoRefresh])
+
+  // 自动刷新
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (timerRef.current) clearInterval(timerRef.current)
+    if (autoRefresh) {
+      timerRef.current = setInterval(load, 10_000)
+    }
+    return () => {
+      if (timerRef.current) clearInterval(timerRef.current)
+    }
+  }, [autoRefresh, load])
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="系统日志"
+        description="应用运行日志(登录、配置变更、采集、预测、异常等)。内存缓冲最近 2000 条,重启后清零。"
+      />
+
+      {error && <Alert kind="error" title="无法加载日志" message={error} />}
+
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader
+          title="日志查看"
+          description={entries.length > 0 ? `显示最新 ${entries.length} 条` : undefined}
+          action={
+            <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+              <label className="flex cursor-pointer items-center gap-1.5 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                <input
+                  type="checkbox"
+                  checked={autoRefresh}
+                  onChange={e => setAutoRefresh(e.target.checked)}
+                  className="accent-current"
+                />
+                10s 自动刷新
+              </label>
+              <button onClick={load} disabled={loading} className="btn btn-sm">
+                {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 加载中</>) : '刷新'}
+              </button>
+            </div>
+          }
+        />
+        <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+          {/* 筛选栏 */}
+          <div className="flex flex-col gap-2 border-b border-ink-200 px-4 py-3 sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:justify-between sm:px-5">
+            <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-1.5">
+              {LEVELS.map(lv => (
+                <button
+                  key={lv || 'all'}
+                  onClick={() => setLevel(lv)}
+                  className={`btn btn-sm ${level === lv ? 'btn-solid' : ''}`}
+                >
+                  {lv || '全部'}
+                </button>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+            <input
+              value={keyword}
+              onChange={e => setKeyword(e.target.value)}
+              placeholder="搜索关键字(消息 / logger)…"
+              className="field w-full sm:w-64"
+            />
+          </div>
+
+          {/* 日志列表 */}
+          {loading && entries.length === 0 ? (
+            <div className="space-y-2 px-4 py-3 sm:px-5">
+              {[1, 2, 3, 4, 5].map(i => <SkeletonBlock key={i} className="h-8 w-full" />)}
+            </div>
+          ) : entries.length === 0 ? (
+            <p className="py-10 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无匹配的日志</p>
+          ) : (
+            <div ref={scrollRef} onScroll={handleScroll} className="max-h-[60vh] overflow-y-auto">
+              {entries.map((e, i) => {
+                const badge = LEVEL_BADGE[e.level] ?? { status: 'info' as const, text: e.level }
+                return (
+                  <div
+                    key={`${e.ts}-${i}`}
+                    className="flex flex-col gap-0.5 border-b border-ink-200 px-4 py-2 last:border-b-0 sm:flex-row sm:items-baseline sm:gap-3 sm:px-5"
+                  >
+                    <span className="w-40 flex-shrink-0 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">{fmtTs(e.ts)}</span>
+                    <span className="w-14 flex-shrink-0">
+                      <Badge status={badge.status}>{badge.text}</Badge>
+                    </span>
+                    <span className="w-40 flex-shrink-0 truncate font-mono text-2xs text-ink-400" title={e.logger}>
+                      {e.logger}
+                    </span>
+                    <span className="min-w-0 flex-1 break-all font-mono text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-800">
+                      {e.message}
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                )
+              })}
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/Monitoring.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,152 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 监控面板(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 功能:
+ * - /health 存活检查(自动:30 秒一轮;可手动刷新)
+ * - /health/ready 数据库就绪检查
+ * - 服务名 / 版本 / 运行时间 / 检查项(后端返回什么就展示什么)
+ */
+
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { fetchHealth } from '../dal'
+import { api } from '../api'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner, Badge } from '../components'
+
+export default function MonitoringPage() {
+  const [health, setHealth] = useState<any>(null)
+  const [ready, setReady] = useState<'ready' | 'not_ready' | null>(null)
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [lastCheck, setLastCheck] = useState<string>('')
+
+  const refresh = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    setError(null)
+    try {
+      const [h, r] = await Promise.allSettled([
+        fetchHealth(),
+        api.get<{ status: string }>('/health/ready'),
+      ])
+      setHealth(h.status === 'fulfilled' ? h.value : null)
+      setReady(r.status === 'fulfilled' ? (r.value?.status as 'ready' | 'not_ready') : null)
+      if (h.status === 'rejected') {
+        setError(h.reason instanceof Error ? h.reason.message : '无法连接到后端')
+      }
+      setLastCheck(new Date().toLocaleTimeString('zh-CN', { hour12: false }))
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    refresh()
+    const t = setInterval(refresh, 30_000)
+    return () => clearInterval(t)
+  }, [refresh])
+
+  const alive = health?.status === 'healthy' || health?.status === 'ok'
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="系统监控"
+        description="存活与数据库就绪检查,每 30 秒自动巡检一次。"
+      />
+
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-between">
+        <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">
+          {lastCheck && `最近巡检 ${lastCheck}`}
+        </span>
+        <button onClick={refresh} disabled={loading} className="btn btn-sm">
+          {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 检查中</>) : '立即巡检'}
+        </button>
+      </div>
+
+      {error && (
+        <Alert
+          kind="error"
+          title="无法连接到后端"
+          message={`${error}\n请确认服务是否正常运行,以及登录会话是否已过期。`}
+        />
+      )}
+
+      <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-2 lg:grid-cols-3">
+        {/* 存活状态 */}
+        <div className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 p-5">
+          <div className="text-2xs tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-400">存活状态</div>
+          <div className="mt-2 flex items-center gap-2">
+            <span
+              className={`inline-block h-2 w-2 ${alive ? 'bg-ink-900' : 'bg-press'}`}
+              aria-hidden="true"
+            />
+            <span className={`font-serif text-xl font-bold ${alive ? 'text-ink-900' : 'text-press'}`}>
+              {health ? (alive ? '正常' : String(health.status)) : '—'}
+            </span>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 数据库就绪 */}
+        <div className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 p-5">
+          <div className="text-2xs tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-400">数据库就绪</div>
+          <div className="mt-2 flex items-center gap-2">
+            <span
+              className={`inline-block h-2 w-2 ${ready === 'ready' ? 'bg-ink-900' : ready === null ? 'bg-ink-300' : 'bg-press'}`}
+              aria-hidden="true"
+            />
+            <span
+              className={`font-serif text-xl font-bold ${ready === 'not_ready' ? 'text-press' : 'text-ink-900'}`}
+            >
+              {ready === 'ready' ? '就绪' : ready === 'not_ready' ? '未就绪' : '—'}
+            </span>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 服务名 */}
+        <div className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 p-5">
+          <div className="text-2xs tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-400">服务</div>
+          <div className="mt-2 font-serif text-xl font-bold text-ink-900">
+            {health?.service || 'profeto'}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 版本 */}
+        {health?.version && (
+          <div className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 p-5">
+            <div className="text-2xs tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-400">版本</div>
+            <div className="mt-2 font-serif text-xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+              {health.version}
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {/* 运行时间 */}
+        {health?.uptime_seconds != null && (
+          <div className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 p-5">
+            <div className="text-2xs tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-400">运行时间</div>
+            <div className="mt-2 font-serif text-xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+              {Math.floor(health.uptime_seconds / 3600)}h{' '}
+              {Math.floor((health.uptime_seconds % 3600) / 60)}m
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {/* 检查项 */}
+        {health?.checks && Object.keys(health.checks).length > 0 && (
+          <div className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 p-5 sm:col-span-2 lg:col-span-1">
+            <div className="text-2xs tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-400">健康检查</div>
+            <div className="mt-2 space-y-1">
+              {Object.entries(health.checks).map(([key, val]) => (
+                <div key={key} className="flex items-center justify-between text-sm">
+                  <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">{key}</span>
+                  <Badge status={String(val) === 'pass' ? 'success' : 'error'}>
+                    {String(val)}
+                  </Badge>
+                </div>
+              ))}
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/PredictionHistory.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,316 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 预测历史页面(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 功能:
+ * - 查看预测记录列表(支持状态筛选)
+ * - 实际比分自动从比赛赛果填充
+ * - 赛后一键结算,供准确率评估
+ */
+
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { fetchPredictions, settlePrediction } from '../dal'
+import type { Prediction } from '../types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner } from '../components'
+import TeamSideTag from '../../components/TeamSideTag'
+
+const OUTCOME_LABEL: Record<string, string> = { '1': '主胜', X: '平局', '2': '客胜' }
+
+function fmtDate(s?: string | null): string {
+  if (!s) return '—'
+  const d = new Date(s)
+  return isNaN(d.getTime()) ? s : `${d.getMonth() + 1}/${d.getDate()}`
+}
+
+export default function PredictionHistoryPage() {
+  const [predictions, setPredictions] = useState<Prediction[]>([])
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [filter, setFilter] = useState<'all' | 'settled' | 'unsettled'>('all')
+  const [expandedId, setExpandedId] = useState<number | null>(null)
+  const [settlingId, setSettlingId] = useState<number | null>(null)
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    setError(null)
+    try {
+      const list = await fetchPredictions(200)
+      setPredictions(list)
+    } catch (err) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '加载失败')
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => { load() }, [load])
+
+  const handleSettle = async (p: Prediction) => {
+    const match = (p as any).match
+    if (!match || match.home_goals == null || match.away_goals == null) return
+    setSettlingId(p.id)
+    try {
+      await settlePrediction(p.id, match.home_goals, match.away_goals)
+      await load()
+    } catch (err) {
+      console.error('结算失败:', err)
+    } finally {
+      setSettlingId(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const filtered = predictions.filter(p => {
+    if (filter === 'settled') return p.settled
+    if (filter === 'unsettled') return !p.settled
+    return true
+  })
+
+  const unsettledCount = predictions.filter(p => !p.settled).length
+  const settledWithScore = predictions.filter(p => p.settled && p.actual_home_goals != null && p.actual_away_goals != null)
+  const hitCount = settledWithScore.filter(p => {
+    const actual = p.actual_home_goals! > p.actual_away_goals! ? '1' : p.actual_home_goals! < p.actual_away_goals! ? '2' : 'X'
+    return actual === p.pred_1x2
+  }).length
+  const accuracy = settledWithScore.length > 0 ? Math.round(hitCount / settledWithScore.length * 100) : 0
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="预测历史"
+        description={`共 ${predictions.length} 条记录${unsettledCount > 0 ? `, ${unsettledCount} 条待结算` : ''}`}
+      />
+
+      {/* 统计概览 */}
+      {settledWithScore.length > 0 && (
+        <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-3">
+          <Card>
+            <CardBody className="text-center">
+              <p className="text-2xl font-bold text-ink-900">{settledWithScore.length}</p>
+              <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">已结算</p>
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+          <Card>
+            <CardBody className="text-center">
+              <p className="text-2xl font-bold text-emerald-700">{hitCount}</p>
+              <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">命中</p>
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+          <Card>
+            <CardBody className="text-center">
+              <p className="text-2xl font-bold text-press">{accuracy}%</p>
+              <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">1X2 准确率</p>
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 筛选 */}
+      <div className="flex gap-2">
+        {([
+          { v: 'all', label: '全部' },
+          { v: 'unsettled', label: '待结算' },
+          { v: 'settled', label: '已结算' },
+        ] as const).map(opt => (
+          <button
+            key={opt.v}
+            onClick={() => setFilter(opt.v)}
+            className={`btn btn-sm ${filter === opt.v ? 'btn-solid' : ''}`}
+          >
+            {opt.label}
+          </button>
+        ))}
+      </div>
+
+      {loading && (
+        <div className="flex justify-center py-12"><Spinner /></div>
+      )}
+
+      {error && (
+        <Alert kind="error" title="加载失败" message={error} onClose={() => setError(null)} />
+      )}
+
+      {!loading && !error && filtered.length === 0 && (
+        <div className="empty-state">
+          <p className="empty-state-title">暂无预测记录</p>
+          <p className="empty-state-sub">在主站比赛列表点击「预测」按钮生成预测记录</p>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 预测列表 */}
+      {!loading && !error && filtered.length > 0 && (
+        <Card>
+          <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+            <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+              <table className="w-full min-w-[700px] text-sm">
+                <thead>
+                  <tr className="border-b border-ink-200 text-left text-ink-500">
+                    <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">比赛日</th>
+                    <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">比赛</th>
+                    <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">预测</th>
+                    <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">实际</th>
+                    <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">1X2</th>
+                    <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">状态</th>
+                    <th className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">操作</th>
+                  </tr>
+                </thead>
+                <tbody>
+                  {filtered.map(p => {
+                    const match = (p as any).match
+                    const matchDate = match?.match_date
+                    const homeName = match?.home_team_zh || match?.home_team || '?'
+                    const awayName = match?.away_team_zh || match?.away_team || '?'
+                    const actualHome = match?.home_goals
+                    const actualAway = match?.away_goals
+                    const hasActual = actualHome != null && actualAway != null
+                    const isExpanded = expandedId === p.id
+                    const predHit = p.settled && hasActual
+                      ? (actualHome! > actualAway! ? '1' : actualHome! < actualAway! ? '2' : 'X') === p.pred_1x2
+                      : null
+                    return (
+                      <tr key={p.id} className="border-b border-ink-100 hover:bg-paper-100">
+                        <td className="px-4 py-3 text-2xs text-ink-400">{fmtDate(matchDate)}</td>
+                        <td className="px-4 py-3">
+                          <div className="flex items-center gap-1 text-xs text-ink-800">
+                            <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+                            <span className="truncate max-w-[100px]">{homeName}</span>
+                          </div>
+                          <div className="flex items-center gap-1 text-xs text-ink-600 mt-0.5">
+                            <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+                            <span className="truncate max-w-[100px]">{awayName}</span>
+                          </div>
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="px-4 py-3 font-serif font-bold text-ink-900">
+                          {p.pred_home_goals != null && p.pred_away_goals != null
+                            ? `${p.pred_home_goals} : ${p.pred_away_goals}` : '—'}
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="px-4 py-3">
+                          {hasActual ? (
+                            <span className={`font-serif font-bold ${p.settled ? 'text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
+                              {actualHome} : {actualAway}
+                            </span>
+                          ) : (
+                            <span className="text-2xs text-ink-300">暂无赛果</span>
+                          )}
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="px-4 py-3">
+                          {p.pred_1x2 ? (
+                            <span className={`inline-block border px-1.5 py-0.5 text-2xs ${
+                              predHit === true ? 'border-emerald-300 text-emerald-700 bg-emerald-50' :
+                              predHit === false ? 'border-press text-press bg-press-wash' :
+                              'border-ink-200 text-ink-600'
+                            }`}>
+                              {OUTCOME_LABEL[p.pred_1x2] ?? p.pred_1x2}
+                              {predHit === true && ' ✓'}
+                              {predHit === false && ' ✗'}
+                            </span>
+                          ) : '—'}
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="px-4 py-3">
+                          {p.settled ? (
+                            <Badge status="success">已结算</Badge>
+                          ) : hasActual ? (
+                            <Badge status="info">可结算</Badge>
+                          ) : (
+                            <Badge status="warning">待赛果</Badge>
+                          )}
+                        </td>
+                        <td className="px-4 py-3">
+                          <div className="flex gap-2">
+                            {!p.settled && hasActual && (
+                              <button
+                                onClick={() => handleSettle(p)}
+                                disabled={settlingId === p.id}
+                                className="btn btn-sm btn-solid"
+                              >
+                                {settlingId === p.id ? <Spinner /> : '结算'}
+                              </button>
+                            )}
+                            <button
+                              onClick={() => setExpandedId(isExpanded ? null : p.id)}
+                              className="btn btn-sm"
+                            >
+                              {isExpanded ? '收起' : '详情'}
+                            </button>
+                          </div>
+                        </td>
+                      </tr>
+                    )
+                  })}
+                </tbody>
+              </table>
+            </div>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 展开详情 */}
+      {expandedId && (() => {
+        const p = predictions.find(pr => pr.id === expandedId)
+        if (!p) return null
+        const match = (p as any).match
+        const reports = p.agent_outputs ?? []
+        return (
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader title="预测详情" />
+            <CardBody className="space-y-4">
+              <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm text-ink-700">
+                <span>{fmtDate(match?.match_date)}</span>
+                <span className="text-ink-300">|</span>
+                <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+                <span>{match?.home_team_zh || match?.home_team || '?'}</span>
+                <span className="text-ink-400">vs</span>
+                <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+                <span>{match?.away_team_zh || match?.away_team || '?'}</span>
+              </div>
+
+              <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-3">
+                <div className="border-t-2 border-ink-900 pt-3">
+                  <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">预测比分</p>
+                  <p className="mt-1 font-serif text-xl font-bold text-ink-900">
+                    {p.pred_home_goals != null && p.pred_away_goals != null
+                      ? `${p.pred_home_goals} : ${p.pred_away_goals}` : '—'}
+                  </p>
+                </div>
+                <div className="border-t-2 border-ink-900 pt-3">
+                  <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">实际比分</p>
+                  <p className="mt-1 font-serif text-xl font-bold text-ink-900">
+                    {match?.home_goals != null && match?.away_goals != null
+                      ? `${match.home_goals} : ${match.away_goals}` : '—'}
+                  </p>
+                </div>
+                <div className="border-t-2 border-ink-900 pt-3">
+                  <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">置信度</p>
+                  <p className="mt-1 font-serif text-xl font-bold text-ink-900">
+                    {p.subjective_confidence != null ? `${(p.subjective_confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}%` : '—'}
+                  </p>
+                </div>
+              </div>
+
+              {p.reasoning && (
+                <div>
+                  <h4 className="section-head mb-2">终裁意见</h4>
+                  <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
+                    <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{p.reasoning}</p>
+                  </blockquote>
+                </div>
+              )}
+
+              {reports.length > 0 && (
+                <div>
+                  <h4 className="section-head mb-2">专家意见</h4>
+                  <div className="space-y-2">
+                    {reports.map((r) => (
+                      <div key={r.agent} className="border-b border-ink-100 pb-2 last:border-b-0">
+                        <p className="text-xs font-medium text-ink-700">{r.agent}</p>
+                        <p className="mt-0.5 text-xs text-ink-500">{r.analysis || '—'}</p>
+                      </div>
+                    ))}
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+              )}
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+        )
+      })()}
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/Predictions.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,363 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 预测管理页面(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 功能:
+ * - 触发预测(选择比赛 + 模式)
+ * - 结算:录入实际比分,写入评估(接 /eval/settle)
+ * - 预测记录列表:可展开查看终裁理由与专家摘要
+ *
+ * 响应式布局: 移动端单列,桌面端双列
+ */
+
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useMemo, useState } from 'react'
+import { triggerPrediction, fetchPredictions, fetchMatches, settlePrediction } from '../dal'
+import type { Match, Prediction } from '../types'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner } from '../components'
+import { teamSidePrefix } from '../../components/TeamSideTag'
+import { AgentWeightsBar } from '../components'
+
+const AGENT_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
+  h2h: '历史交锋分析专家',
+  form: '近期状态分析专家',
+  stats: '攻防数据分析专家',
+  home_away: '主客因素分析专家',
+  injuries: '阵容完整性分析专家',
+}
+
+const OUTCOME_LABEL: Record<string, string> = { '1': '主胜', X: '平局', '2': '客胜' }
+
+function fmtTime(s?: string | null): string {
+  if (!s) return '—'
+  const d = new Date(s)
+  return isNaN(d.getTime())
+    ? s
+    : d.toLocaleString('zh-CN', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit', hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit' })
+}
+
+export default function PredictionsPage() {
+  const [matches, setMatches] = useState<Match[]>([])
+  const [predictions, setPredictions] = useState<Prediction[]>([])
+  const [matchId, setMatchId] = useState('')
+  const [mode, setMode] = useState<'single' | 'multi'>('multi')
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [successMsg, setSuccessMsg] = useState<string | null>(null)
+
+  // 结算表单
+  const [settleId, setSettleId] = useState('')
+  const [homeGoals, setHomeGoals] = useState('')
+  const [awayGoals, setAwayGoals] = useState('')
+  const [settling, setSettling] = useState(false)
+  const [settleMsg, setSettleMsg] = useState<{ kind: 'error' | 'ok'; text: string } | null>(null)
+
+  const refreshPredictions = useCallback(async () => {
+    const list = await fetchPredictions(50)
+    setPredictions(list)
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    refreshPredictions()
+    fetchMatches({ limit: 100 }).then(d => setMatches(d.items))
+  }, [refreshPredictions])
+
+  /** match_id → 中文名对阵 */
+  const matchName = useMemo(() => {
+    const map = new Map<number, string>()
+    for (const m of matches) {
+      const home = m.home_team_zh || m.home_team
+      const away = m.away_team_zh || m.away_team
+      map.set(m.id, `${teamSidePrefix('home')}${home} vs ${teamSidePrefix('away')}${away}`)
+    }
+    return map
+  }, [matches])
+
+  const nameOf = (id: number) => matchName.get(id) ?? `比赛 #${id}`
+
+  async function handlePredict(e: React.FormEvent) {
+    e.preventDefault()
+    if (!matchId) return
+    setLoading(true)
+    setError(null)
+    setSuccessMsg(null)
+    try {
+      await triggerPrediction({ match_id: parseInt(matchId), mode })
+      setSuccessMsg('预测任务已完成,记录已更新')
+      await refreshPredictions()
+    } catch (err: unknown) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '预测失败')
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const unsettled = predictions.filter(p => !p.settled)
+
+  async function handleSettle(e: React.FormEvent) {
+    e.preventDefault()
+    const pid = parseInt(settleId)
+    const hg = parseInt(homeGoals)
+    const ag = parseInt(awayGoals)
+    if (!pid || isNaN(hg) || isNaN(ag)) return
+    setSettling(true)
+    setSettleMsg(null)
+    try {
+      await settlePrediction(pid, hg, ag)
+      setSettleMsg({ kind: 'ok', text: '结算完成,准确率统计已更新' })
+      setSettleId('')
+      setHomeGoals('')
+      setAwayGoals('')
+      await refreshPredictions()
+    } catch (err: unknown) {
+      setSettleMsg({
+        kind: 'error',
+        text: err instanceof Error ? err.message : '结算失败',
+      })
+    } finally {
+      setSettling(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const settleTarget = predictions.find(p => p.id === parseInt(settleId))
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="预测管理"
+        description="触发 LLM 预测;赛后录入实际比分完成结算,供准确率统计使用。"
+      />
+
+      <div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
+        {/* 新建预测 */}
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader title="新建预测" />
+          <CardBody>
+            <form onSubmit={handlePredict} className="space-y-4">
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">比赛</label>
+                <select
+                  value={matchId}
+                  onChange={e => setMatchId(e.target.value)}
+                  className="field w-full"
+                >
+                  <option value="">选择比赛</option>
+                  {matches.map(m => (
+                    <option key={m.id} value={m.id}>
+                      {teamSidePrefix('home')}{(m.home_team_zh || m.home_team)} vs {teamSidePrefix('away')}{(m.away_team_zh || m.away_team)}
+                      ({m.match_date?.slice(5, 10)})
+                    </option>
+                  ))}
+                </select>
+              </div>
+
+              <div>
+                <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">模式</label>
+                <select
+                  value={mode}
+                  onChange={e => setMode(e.target.value as 'single' | 'multi')}
+                  className="field w-full"
+                >
+                  <option value="multi">多专家 (5 路 + 终裁,慢而稳)</option>
+                  <option value="single">单次调用 (快)</option>
+                </select>
+              </div>
+
+              {error && <Alert kind="error" title="预测失败" message={error} onClose={() => setError(null)} />}
+              {successMsg && (
+                <Alert kind="ok" title={successMsg} onClose={() => setSuccessMsg(null)} />
+              )}
+
+              <button
+                type="submit"
+                disabled={loading || !matchId}
+                className="btn btn-solid w-full"
+              >
+                {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 预测中,多专家模式约需 20-60 秒</>) : '触发预测'}
+              </button>
+            </form>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+
+        {/* 结算 */}
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader
+            title="预测结算"
+            description="录入实际比分,系统据此统计 1X2 准确率与比分 RMSE"
+          />
+          <CardBody>
+            {unsettled.length === 0 ? (
+              <p className="py-6 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">
+                没有待结算的预测记录。预测完成后可在此录入实际比分。
+              </p>
+            ) : (
+              <form onSubmit={handleSettle} className="space-y-4">
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">预测记录</label>
+                  <select
+                    value={settleId}
+                    onChange={e => setSettleId(e.target.value)}
+                    className="field w-full"
+                  >
+                    <option value="">选择待结算预测({unsettled.length} 条)</option>
+                    {unsettled.map(p => (
+                      <option key={p.id} value={p.id}>
+                        #{p.id} {nameOf(p.match_id)} · 预测 {p.pred_home_goals ?? '-'}:{p.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}
+                      </option>
+                    ))}
+                  </select>
+                </div>
+
+                {settleTarget && (
+                  <p className="border-l-2 border-ink-300 pl-3 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                    预测:{settleTarget.pred_home_goals ?? '-'} : {settleTarget.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}
+                    ({OUTCOME_LABEL[settleTarget.pred_1x2 ?? ''] ?? '?'})
+                    <span className="ml-2">{fmtTime(settleTarget.created_at)}</span>
+                  </p>
+                )}
+
+                <div className="grid grid-cols-2 gap-3">
+                  <div>
+                    <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">主队实际进球</label>
+                    <input
+                      type="number"
+                      min={0}
+                      max={30}
+                      value={homeGoals}
+                      onChange={e => setHomeGoals(e.target.value)}
+                      className="field w-full"
+                    />
+                  </div>
+                  <div>
+                    <label className="mb-1.5 block text-xs text-ink-500">客队实际进球</label>
+                    <input
+                      type="number"
+                      min={0}
+                      max={30}
+                      value={awayGoals}
+                      onChange={e => setAwayGoals(e.target.value)}
+                      className="field w-full"
+                    />
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+
+                {settleMsg && (
+                  <Alert
+                    kind={settleMsg.kind}
+                    title={settleMsg.kind === 'ok' ? '结算完成' : '结算失败'}
+                    message={settleMsg.kind === 'error' ? settleMsg.text : undefined}
+                    onClose={() => setSettleMsg(null)}
+                  />
+                )}
+
+                <button
+                  type="submit"
+                  disabled={settling || !settleId || homeGoals === '' || awayGoals === ''}
+                  className="btn btn-solid w-full"
+                >
+                  {settling ? (<><Spinner /> 结算中</>) : '提交结算'}
+                </button>
+              </form>
+            )}
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 最近预测 */}
+      <Card>
+        <CardHeader title="预测记录" description="点击行可展开终裁理由与专家摘要" />
+        <CardBody className="px-0 sm:px-0">
+          {predictions.length === 0 ? (
+            <p className="py-10 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">
+              暂无预测记录,触发预测后将在此显示
+            </p>
+          ) : (
+            <div>
+              {predictions.map(p => {
+                const okAgents = (p.agent_outputs ?? []).filter(a => a.status === 'ok')
+                return (
+                  <details key={p.id} className="group border-b border-ink-200 last:border-b-0">
+                    <summary className="flex cursor-pointer list-none flex-wrap items-baseline gap-x-3 gap-y-1 px-4 py-3 transition-colors hover:bg-paper-100 sm:px-5">
+                      <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">#{p.id}</span>
+                      <span className="text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{nameOf(p.match_id)}</span>
+                      <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                        {p.pred_home_goals ?? '-'}<span className="mx-0.5 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>{p.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}
+                      </span>
+                      <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                        {OUTCOME_LABEL[p.pred_1x2 ?? ''] ?? '—'}
+                        {p.subjective_confidence !== null && p.subjective_confidence !== undefined &&
+                          ` · ${Math.round(p.subjective_confidence * 100)}%`}
+                      </span>
+                      <span className="ml-auto flex items-baseline gap-3">
+                        {p.settled ? (
+                          <Badge status="success">已结算</Badge>
+                        ) : (
+                          <Badge status="pending">未结算</Badge>
+                          )}
+                          {p.status === 'degraded' && (
+                            <Badge status="error">降级·仅供参考</Badge>
+                          )}
+                          {p.status === 'failed' && (
+                            <Badge status="error">预测失败</Badge>
+                          )}
+                          <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">{fmtTime(p.created_at)}</span>
+                        <svg
+                          viewBox="0 0 20 20"
+                          className="h-3 w-3 self-center text-ink-300 transition-transform group-open:rotate-90"
+                          fill="currentColor"
+                          aria-hidden="true"
+                        >
+                          <path d="M7.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0l4 4a1 1 0 010 1.4l-4 4a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L10.6 10 7.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
+                        </svg>
+                      </span>
+                    </summary>
+
+                    <div className="space-y-3 px-4 pb-4 pl-8 sm:px-6 sm:pl-9">
+                      <p className="text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                        {p.mode === 'multi' ? `多专家 · ${okAgents.length}/${p.agent_outputs?.length ?? 0} 路有效` : '单次模式'}
+                        {p.model && <span className="ml-2 font-mono">{p.model}</span>}
+                      </p>
+
+                      {p.reasoning && (
+                        <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
+                          <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">
+                            {p.reasoning}
+                          </p>
+                        </blockquote>
+                      )}
+
+                      {p.agent_weights && Object.keys(p.agent_weights).length > 0 && (
+                        <AgentWeightsBar weights={p.agent_weights} okCount={okAgents.length} />
+                      )}
+
+                      {p.agent_outputs && p.agent_outputs.length > 0 && (
+                        <ul className="space-y-1">
+                          {p.agent_outputs.map((a, i) => (
+                            <li key={i} className="flex items-baseline gap-2.5 text-xs">
+                              <span className={`inline-block h-1.5 w-1.5 flex-shrink-0 self-center ${a.status === 'ok' ? 'bg-ink-900' : 'bg-ink-300'}`} aria-hidden="true" />
+                              <span className="text-ink-800">{AGENT_LABELS[a.agent] ?? a.agent}</span>
+                              {a.probable_score && (
+                                <span className="font-serif font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-800">{a.probable_score}</span>
+                              )}
+                              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                                {a.status === 'ok' ? '' : a.status === 'no_data' ? '无数据' : '失败'}
+                              </span>
+                            </li>
+                          ))}
+                        </ul>
+                      )}
+
+                      {p.settled && (
+                        <p className="border-t border-ink-100 pt-2.5 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                          实际比分 {p.actual_home_goals ?? '-'} : {p.actual_away_goals ?? '-'}
+                        </p>
+                      )}
+                    </div>
+                  </details>
+                )
+              })}
+            </div>
+          )}
+        </CardBody>
+      </Card>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/pages/Settings.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,496 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 统一设置页(报刊风)
+ *
+ * 合并原「数据源」「LLM 配置」「系统配置」三页:
+ *   1. 数据源 — bzzoiro API Key + Key Ring 状态
+ *   2. LLM — 连接配置 + 使用统计 + 专家独立配置
+ *   3. 认证 — 修改密码
+ *   4. 系统 — 配置查看 + 修改指南
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
+import {
+  fetchSettings, updateSetting, clearSetting,
+  testLLMConnection, fetchLLMUsageStats, fetchLLMModels,
+  fetchKeyRingStatus, resetKeyRingCooldown,
+  fetchSchedules, createSchedule, updateSchedule, deleteSchedule, runScheduleNow,
+} from '../dal'
+import type { ScheduleItem } from '../dal'
+import { changePassword, fetchAuthState, UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT } from '../api'
+import type { LLMUsageStats, DataSourceSetting } from '../types'
+import type { KeyRingStatusResponse } from '../dal'
+import { Card, CardBody, CardHeader, Badge, SectionHeader, Alert, Spinner, SkeletonBlock } from '../components'
+import SettingRow from '../SettingRow'
+import AgentLLMCard from '../AgentLLMCard'
+
+const DATA_SOURCE_KEYS = ['BZZOIRO_KEY', 'BZZOIRO_BASE']
+const LLM_KEYS = ['LLM_API_KEY', 'LLM_BASE_URL', 'LLM_MODEL']
+
+export default function SettingsPage() {
+  const [allSettings, setAllSettings] = useState<DataSourceSetting[]>([])
+  const [settingsLoading, setSettingsLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [editingKey, setEditingKey] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [busyKey, setBusyKey] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [rowNotice, setRowNotice] = useState<{ key: string; ok: boolean; text: string } | null>(null)
+
+  // LLM
+  const [llmStats, setLlmStats] = useState<LLMUsageStats | null>(null)
+  const [llmLoading, setLlmLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [testing, setTesting] = useState(false)
+  const [testResult, setTestResult] = useState<{ success: boolean; message: string } | null>(null)
+
+  // Key Ring
+  const [keyRing, setKeyRing] = useState<KeyRingStatusResponse | null>(null)
+  const [ringLoading, setRingLoading] = useState(false)
+
+  // 密码
+  const [passwordOrigin, setPasswordOrigin] = useState<'db' | 'env' | 'none' | null>(null)
+  const [currentPwd, setCurrentPwd] = useState('')
+  const [newPwd, setNewPwd] = useState('')
+  const [confirmPwd, setConfirmPwd] = useState('')
+  const [pwdBusy, setPwdBusy] = useState(false)
+  const [pwdNotice, setPwdNotice] = useState<{ ok: boolean; text: string } | null>(null)
+
+  // 定时任务
+  const [schedules, setSchedules] = useState<ScheduleItem[]>([])
+  const [schedulesLoading, setSchedulesLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [scheduleNotice, setScheduleNotice] = useState<{ ok: boolean; text: string } | null>(null)
+  const [scheduleBusyId, setScheduleBusyId] = useState<string | null>(null)
+
+  // ── 数据加载 ──
+  const loadSettings = useCallback(async () => {
+    setSettingsLoading(true)
+    try {
+      const all = await fetchSettings()
+      setAllSettings(all)
+    } catch {
+      setAllSettings([])
+    } finally {
+      setSettingsLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  const loadLlmStats = useCallback(async () => {
+    setLlmLoading(true)
+    try {
+      setLlmStats(await fetchLLMUsageStats())
+    } catch {
+      setLlmStats(null)
+    } finally {
+      setLlmLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  const loadKeyRing = useCallback(async () => {
+    setRingLoading(true)
+    try {
+      setKeyRing(await fetchKeyRingStatus())
+    } catch {
+      setKeyRing(null)
+    } finally {
+      setRingLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    loadSettings()
+    loadLlmStats()
+    loadKeyRing()
+    fetchAuthState().then(s => setPasswordOrigin(s.password_origin ?? null)).catch(() => {})
+    fetchSchedules().then(setSchedules).catch(() => []).finally(() => setSchedulesLoading(false))
+  }, [loadSettings, loadLlmStats, loadKeyRing])
+
+  const dataSourceSettings = allSettings.filter(s => DATA_SOURCE_KEYS.includes(s.key))
+  const llmSettings = allSettings.filter(s => LLM_KEYS.includes(s.key))
+
+  // ── 操作 ──
+  const handleSave = async (key: string, value: string) => {
+    setBusyKey(key)
+    setRowNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await updateSetting(key, value)
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: true, text: '已保存,立即生效' })
+      setEditingKey(null)
+      await loadSettings()
+      if (key === 'BZZOIRO_KEY') await loadKeyRing()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '保存失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setBusyKey(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleClear = async (key: string) => {
+    setBusyKey(key)
+    setRowNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await clearSetting(key)
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: true, text: '已清除数据库覆盖,回落 .env 默认值' })
+      await loadSettings()
+    } catch (err) {
+      setRowNotice({ key, ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '清除失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setBusyKey(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  // ── 定时任务操作 ──
+  const handleToggleSchedule = async (s: ScheduleItem) => {
+    setScheduleBusyId(s.id)
+    setScheduleNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await updateSchedule(s.id, { enabled: !s.enabled })
+      setScheduleNotice({ ok: true, text: `已${!s.enabled ? '启用' : '禁用'}任务「${s.id}」` })
+      setSchedules(prev => prev.map(x => x.id === s.id ? { ...x, enabled: !x.enabled } : x))
+    } catch {
+      setScheduleNotice({ ok: false, text: '操作失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setScheduleBusyId(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleRunSchedule = async (s: ScheduleItem) => {
+    setScheduleBusyId(s.id)
+    setScheduleNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await runScheduleNow(s.id)
+      setScheduleNotice({ ok: true, text: `任务「${s.id}」已启动,请在日志页查看进度` })
+    } catch {
+      setScheduleNotice({ ok: false, text: '启动失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setScheduleBusyId(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleDeleteSchedule = async (s: ScheduleItem) => {
+    setScheduleBusyId(s.id)
+    setScheduleNotice(null)
+    try {
+      await deleteSchedule(s.id)
+      setScheduleNotice({ ok: true, text: `已删除任务「${s.id}」` })
+      setSchedules(prev => prev.filter(x => x.id !== s.id))
+    } catch {
+      setScheduleNotice({ ok: false, text: '删除失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setScheduleBusyId(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const detectLLMModels = useCallback(async (): Promise<string[]> => {
+    const r = await fetchLLMModels()
+    if (!r.ok) throw new Error(r.detail)
+    return r.models
+  }, [])
+
+  const handleTest = async () => {
+    setTesting(true)
+    setTestResult(null)
+    try {
+      await testLLMConnection()
+      setTestResult({ success: true, message: 'LLM 连接测试成功' })
+    } catch (err: unknown) {
+      setTestResult({ success: false, message: err instanceof Error ? err.message : 'LLM 连接测试失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setTesting(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleResetCooldown = async () => {
+    if (!window.confirm('确定重置所有 key 的冷却状态?这可能使被限流的 key 立即恢复请求。')) return
+    try {
+      const res = await resetKeyRingCooldown()
+      setKeyRing(res.stats)
+      setRowNotice({ key: "__ring", ok: true, text: res.message })
+    } catch (err) {
+      setRowNotice({ key: "__ring", ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '重置失败' })
+    }
+  }
+
+  const handleChangePassword = async (e: React.FormEvent) => {
+    e.preventDefault()
+    setPwdNotice(null)
+    if (newPwd !== confirmPwd) {
+      setPwdNotice({ ok: false, text: '两次输入的新密码不一致' })
+      return
+    }
+    setPwdBusy(true)
+    try {
+      const res = await changePassword(currentPwd, newPwd)
+      setPwdNotice({ ok: true, text: res.message })
+      setTimeout(() => window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT)), 1500)
+    } catch (err) {
+      setPwdNotice({ ok: false, text: err instanceof Error ? err.message.split('\n')[0] : '修改失败' })
+    } finally {
+      setPwdBusy(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-8">
+      <SectionHeader
+        title="系统设置"
+        description="数据源、LLM、认证等全部配置。保存到数据库并立即生效,优先于 .env。"
+      />
+
+      {/* ── 1. 数据源 ── */}
+      <section>
+        <h2 className="section-head mb-3">数据源</h2>
+        <div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader
+              title="Bzzoiro API"
+              description="赛程 / 比分 / 积分榜 / 比赛统计的唯一数据源"
+              action={<button onClick={loadSettings} disabled={settingsLoading} className="btn btn-sm">{settingsLoading ? <><Spinner /> 加载中</> : '刷新'}</button>}
+            />
+            <CardBody>
+              {settingsLoading ? (
+                <div className="space-3">{dataSourceSettings.map((_, i) => <SkeletonBlock key={i} className="h-9 w-full" />)}</div>
+              ) : (
+                dataSourceSettings.map(setting => (
+                  <SettingRow
+                    key={setting.key}
+                    setting={setting}
+                    editing={editingKey === setting.key}
+                    busy={busyKey === setting.key}
+                    onEdit={() => { setEditingKey(setting.key); setRowNotice(null) }}
+                    onCancel={() => setEditingKey(null)}
+                    onSave={v => handleSave(setting.key, v)}
+                    onClear={() => handleClear(setting.key)}
+                  />
+                ))
+              )}
+              {rowNotice && !rowNotice.key.startsWith('__') && dataSourceSettings.some(s => s.key === rowNotice.key) && (
+                <div className="mt-3"><Alert kind={rowNotice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={rowNotice.text} /></div>
+              )}
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+
+          {/* Key Ring */}
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader
+              title="API Key 轮换环"
+              description={keyRing?.has_multiple ? `已配置 ${keyRing.total} 个 key,遇限流自动切换` : '当前仅 1 个 key,无法轮换'}
+              action={<button onClick={handleResetCooldown} disabled={ringLoading} className="btn-sm btn-outline">重置冷却</button>}
+            />
+            <CardBody>
+              {keyRing && keyRing.total > 0 ? (
+                <div className="space-y-2">
+                  {keyRing.keys.map((k, i) => {
+                    const isBlocked = k.blocked_remaining > 0
+                    return (
+                      <div key={i} className={`flex items-center justify-between gap-3 border-b border-ink-100 py-2 last:border-b-0 ${isBlocked ? 'opacity-70' : ''}`}>
+                        <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                          <span className={`inline-block h-2 w-2 rounded-full ${isBlocked ? 'bg-amber-500' : 'bg-emerald-500'}`} />
+                          <span className="font-mono text-xs text-ink-700">{k.masked}</span>
+                          {i === keyRing.active_index && <span className="rounded bg-ink-900 px-1.5 py-0.5 text-2xs text-paper-500">当前</span>}
+                        </div>
+                        <span className={`text-2xs tabular-nums ${isBlocked ? 'text-amber-600' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
+                          {isBlocked ? `冷却中 ${k.blocked_remaining.toFixed(0)}s` : '可用'}
+                        </span>
+                      </div>
+                    )
+                  })}
+                </div>
+              ) : (
+                <p className="text-xs text-ink-400">暂无 key 配置</p>
+              )}
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+        </div>
+      </section>
+
+      {/* ── 2. LLM ── */}
+      <section>
+        <h2 className="section-head mb-3">大语言模型</h2>
+        <div className="grid gap-6 lg:grid-cols-2">
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader
+              title="连接配置"
+              description="OpenAI 兼容接口(DeepSeek / 智谱 / 通义等)"
+              action={<button onClick={loadSettings} disabled={settingsLoading} className="btn btn-sm">{settingsLoading ? <><Spinner /> 加载中</> : '刷新'}</button>}
+            />
+            <CardBody>
+              {settingsLoading ? (
+                <div className="space-y-3">{llmSettings.map((_, i) => <SkeletonBlock key={i} className="h-9 w-full" />)}</div>
+              ) : (
+                llmSettings.map(setting => (
+                  <SettingRow
+                    key={setting.key}
+                    setting={setting}
+                    editing={editingKey === setting.key}
+                    busy={busyKey === setting.key}
+                    onEdit={() => { setEditingKey(setting.key); setRowNotice(null) }}
+                    onCancel={() => setEditingKey(null)}
+                    onSave={v => handleSave(setting.key, v)}
+                    onClear={() => handleClear(setting.key)}
+                    detectModels={setting.key === 'LLM_MODEL' ? detectLLMModels : undefined}
+                  />
+                ))
+              )}
+              {rowNotice && !rowNotice.key.startsWith('__') && llmSettings.some(s => s.key === rowNotice.key) && (
+                <div className="mt-3"><Alert kind={rowNotice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={rowNotice.text} /></div>
+              )}
+              {testResult && (
+                <div className="mt-4">
+                  <Alert kind={testResult.success ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={testResult.success ? '连接正常' : '连接失败'} message={testResult.success ? undefined : testResult.message} />
+                </div>
+              )}
+              <button onClick={handleTest} disabled={testing} className="btn btn-sm mt-4 w-full">
+                {testing ? <><Spinner /> 测试中</> : '测试 LLM 连接'}
+              </button>
+              <p className="mt-2 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">测试会真实调用一次 LLM 预测,产生费用。</p>
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+
+          <Card>
+            <CardHeader title="使用统计" description="从最近预测记录聚合" action={<button onClick={loadLlmStats} disabled={llmLoading} className="btn btn-sm">{llmLoading ? <><Spinner /> 加载中</> : '刷新'}</button>} />
+            <CardBody>
+              {llmLoading ? (
+                <div className="space-y-3"><SkeletonBlock className="h-16 w-full" /><SkeletonBlock className="h-16 w-full" /></div>
+              ) : llmStats ? (
+                <div className="grid grid-cols-3 gap-4">
+                  <div className="border-t-2 border-ink-900 pt-3 text-center">
+                    <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{llmStats.total_predictions}</div>
+                    <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">总预测数</div>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="border-t-2 border-ink-900 pt-3 text-center">
+                    <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{llmStats.avg_latency_ms > 0 ? `${(llmStats.avg_latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s` : '—'}</div>
+                    <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">平均延迟</div>
+                  </div>
+                  <div className="border-t-2 border-press pt-3 text-center">
+                    <div className="font-serif text-2xl font-bold tabular-nums text-press">{llmStats.success_rate.toFixed(0)}%</div>
+                    <div className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-400">有效率</div>
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+              ) : (
+                <p className="py-6 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无使用统计数据</p>
+              )}
+            </CardBody>
+          </Card>
+        </div>
+        <div className="mt-6">
+          <AgentLLMCard />
+        </div>
+      </section>
+
+      {/* ── 3. 认证 ── */}
+      <section>
+        <h2 className="section-head mb-3">登录认证</h2>
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader title="修改密码" description="密码即会话签名密钥,修改后所有已登录会话失效,需重新登录" />
+          <CardBody>
+            {passwordOrigin && (
+              <p className="mb-3 flex items-center gap-2 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                当前密码来源:
+                {passwordOrigin === 'db' ? <Badge status="success">数据库(scrypt 哈希)</Badge>
+                  : passwordOrigin === 'env' ? <Badge status="info">.env 初始值</Badge>
+                  : <Badge status="error">未配置</Badge>}
+              </p>
+            )}
+            <form onSubmit={handleChangePassword} className="space-y-3">
+              <div className="grid gap-3 sm:grid-cols-3">
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1 block text-2xs text-ink-500">当前密码</label>
+                  <input type="password" value={currentPwd} onChange={e => setCurrentPwd(e.target.value)} autoComplete="current-password" className="field w-full" />
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1 block text-2xs text-ink-500">新密码(至少 8 位)</label>
+                  <input type="password" value={newPwd} onChange={e => setNewPwd(e.target.value)} autoComplete="new-password" className="field w-full" />
+                </div>
+                <div>
+                  <label className="mb-1 block text-2xs text-ink-500">确认新密码</label>
+                  <input type="password" value={confirmPwd} onChange={e => setConfirmPwd(e.target.value)} autoComplete="new-password" className="field w-full" />
+                </div>
+              </div>
+              {pwdNotice && <Alert kind={pwdNotice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={pwdNotice.text} />}
+              <div className="flex items-center justify-between gap-2">
+                <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">修改成功后会自动退出登录。</p>
+                <button type="submit" disabled={pwdBusy || !currentPwd || !newPwd || !confirmPwd} className="btn btn-solid btn-sm flex-shrink-0">
+                  {pwdBusy ? <><Spinner /> 修改中</> : '修改密码'}
+                </button>
+              </div>
+            </form>
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      </section>
+
+      {/* ── 4. 定时任务 ── */}
+      <section>
+        <h2 className="section-head mb-3">定时任务</h2>
+        <Card>
+          <CardHeader
+            title="采集调度"
+            description="配置 cron 表达式定时触发采集任务"
+            action={
+              <button
+                onClick={() => {
+                  createSchedule({ id: `schedule-${Date.now()}`, task: 'events', cron: '0 8 * * *', leagues: undefined, enabled: false })
+                    .then(() => fetchSchedules().then(setSchedules))
+                }}
+                className="btn btn-sm"
+              >
+                + 新建
+              </button>
+            }
+          />
+          <CardBody>
+            {scheduleNotice && (
+              <div className="mb-3">
+                <Alert kind={scheduleNotice.ok ? 'ok' : 'error'} title={scheduleNotice.text} onClose={() => setScheduleNotice(null)} />
+              </div>
+            )}
+            {schedulesLoading ? (
+              <SkeletonBlock className="h-10 w-full" />
+            ) : schedules.length === 0 ? (
+              <p className="py-6 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无定时任务,点击右上角「+ 新建」创建</p>
+            ) : (
+              <div className="space-y-2">
+                {schedules.map(s => (
+                  <div key={s.id} className="flex flex-col gap-2 border-b border-ink-100 py-3 last:border-b-0 sm:flex-row sm:items-center sm:justify-between">
+                    <div className="flex-1 space-y-1">
+                      <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                        <span className={`inline-block h-2 w-2 rounded-full ${s.enabled ? 'bg-emerald-500' : 'bg-ink-300'}`} />
+                        <span className="text-xs font-medium text-ink-800">{s.id}</span>
+                        <Badge status={s.enabled ? 'success' : 'muted'}>{s.task}</Badge>
+                      </div>
+                      <p className="font-mono text-2xs text-ink-500">{s.cron}</p>
+                      {s.last_run_at && (
+                        <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">
+                          上次: {new Date(s.last_run_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { hour12: false })}
+                          {s.last_status === 'success' ? ' ✓' : s.last_status === 'failed' ? ' ✗' : ''}
+                        </p>
+                      )}
+                    </div>
+                    <div className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                      <button
+                        onClick={() => handleRunSchedule(s)}
+                        disabled={scheduleBusyId === s.id}
+                        className="btn btn-sm"
+                      >
+                        {scheduleBusyId === s.id ? <Spinner /> : '立即执行'}
+                      </button>
+                      <button
+                        onClick={() => handleToggleSchedule(s)}
+                        disabled={scheduleBusyId === s.id}
+                        className={`btn btn-sm ${s.enabled ? '' : 'btn-solid'}`}
+                      >
+                        {scheduleBusyId === s.id ? <Spinner /> : (s.enabled ? '禁用' : '启用')}
+                      </button>
+                      <button
+                        onClick={() => handleDeleteSchedule(s)}
+                        disabled={scheduleBusyId === s.id}
+                        className="btn btn-sm btn-danger"
+                      >
+                        {scheduleBusyId === s.id ? <Spinner /> : '删除'}
+                      </button>
+                    </div>
+                  </div>
+                ))}
+              </div>
+            )}
+          </CardBody>
+        </Card>
+      </section>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/admin/routes.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,41 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 路由配置
+ *
+ * 所有 Admin 页面的路由定义,使用嵌套路由。
+ * 挂载路径: /admin/*
+ */
+
+import { Navigate } from 'react-router-dom'
+import AdminLayout from './AdminLayout'
+import Dashboard from './pages/Dashboard'
+import CollectionPage from './pages/Collection'
+import DataCompletenessPage from './pages/DataCompleteness'
+import PredictionsPage from './pages/PredictionHistory'
+import BacktestPage from './pages/Backtest'
+import MonitoringPage from './pages/Monitoring'
+import SettingsPage from './pages/Settings'
+import LogsPage from './pages/Logs'
+import EvalPage from './pages/EvalPage'
+import DataPipelinePage from './pages/DataPipeline'
+
+export const adminRoutes = [
+  {
+    path: '/admin',
+    element: <AdminLayout />,
+    children: [
+      { index: true, element: <Dashboard /> },
+      { path: 'collection', element: <CollectionPage /> },
+      { path: 'data-completeness', element: <DataCompletenessPage /> },
+      { path: 'data-pipeline', element: <DataPipelinePage /> },
+      { path: 'predictions', element: <PredictionsPage /> },
+      { path: 'backtest', element: <BacktestPage /> },
+      { path: 'monitoring', element: <MonitoringPage /> },
+      { path: 'settings', element: <SettingsPage /> },
+      { path: 'logs', element: <LogsPage /> },
+      { path: 'eval', element: <EvalPage /> },
+      { path: '*', element: <Navigate to="/admin" replace /> },
+    ],
+  },
+]
+
+export { adminRoutes as default }

frontend/src/admin/types.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,389 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - TypeScript 类型定义
+ *
+ * 与 FastAPI 后端 Pydantic 模型对齐
+ */
+
+// ── 系统健康 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface HealthStatus {
+  status: 'ok' | 'degraded' | 'error'
+  version?: string
+  uptime_seconds?: number
+  checks: Record<string, 'pass' | 'fail' | 'warn'>
+}
+
+// ── 仪表盘 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface DashboardStats {
+  leagues: League[]
+  // 比赛总量已移除: 用 fetchAdminStats()(/admin/stats)的精确 COUNT,
+  // 不要再用列表 items.length 近似(上限 100 会严重失真)
+  total_predictions: number
+  health: string
+  db_tables: { name: string; row_count: number; size_mb: number; last_updated: string | null }[]
+  last_collection: { source: string; league_code: string | null; started_at: string; finished_at: string | null; status: string; records_count: number | null; error_message: string | null }[]
+  recent_errors: { id: number; timestamp: string; source: string; message: string; level: string }[]
+}
+
+// ── 联赛 & 比赛 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface League {
+  id?: number
+  code: string
+  name: string
+  name_zh?: string
+  country?: string
+}
+
+export interface Match {
+  id: number
+  league_code?: string
+  season?: string | null
+  home_team: string
+  away_team: string
+  home_team_zh?: string | null
+  away_team_zh?: string | null
+  match_date: string
+  match_status: string
+  home_goals?: number | null
+  away_goals?: number | null
+  match_stage?: string | null
+}
+
+// ── 预测 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+/** 列表接口返回的单路专家摘要字段 */
+export interface PredictionAgentOutput {
+  agent: string
+  status: string
+  analysis?: string | null
+  probable_score?: string | null
+  subjective_confidence?: number | null
+}
+
+export interface Prediction {
+  id: number
+  match_id: number
+  provider: string
+  model: string
+  prompt_version?: string
+  mode?: string
+  pred_home_goals?: number | null
+  pred_away_goals?: number | null
+  pred_1x2?: string | null
+  subjective_confidence?: number | null
+  reasoning?: string | null
+  agent_outputs?: PredictionAgentOutput[] | null
+  agent_weights?: Record<string, number> | null
+  status?: 'success' | 'failed' | 'degraded'
+  created_at: string
+  actual_home_goals?: number | null
+  actual_away_goals?: number | null
+  settled?: boolean
+}
+
+export interface PredictRequest {
+  match_id: number
+  mode?: 'single' | 'multi'
+  provider?: string
+  model?: string
+}
+
+// ── 数据采集 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface CollectionRequest {
+  status?: string
+  source: 'bzzoiro'
+  leagues?: string[]
+  task?: 'events' | 'standings' | 'stats' | 'all'
+  limit?: number
+  season?: string
+  date_from?: string
+  date_to?: string
+}
+
+// ── 评估 & 回测 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface EvalCalibrationBucket {
+  total: number
+  /** 该桶命中率,百分数;样本不足为 null */
+  hit_rate: number | null
+}
+
+export interface EvalSummaryRow {
+  provider: string
+  model: string
+  prompt_version: string | null
+  total: number
+  /** 1X2 准确率,百分数 0-100 */
+  accuracy_1x2?: number
+  avg_score_rmse?: number | null
+  avg_subjective_confidence?: number | null
+  /** 置信度校准:按主观置信度分桶的命中率 */
+  calibration?: Record<string, EvalCalibrationBucket>
+}
+
+export interface EvalSummary {
+  summary: Array<EvalSummaryRow>
+  /** 全量已结算数 */
+  total_settled: number
+  /** 应用筛选后的已结算数 */
+  filtered_settled: number
+  /** 实际评估条数（status=success 且比分齐全） */
+  evaluated: number
+  /** 跳过的 degraded 条数 */
+  skipped_degraded: number
+  /** 跳过的比分不全条数 */
+  skipped_incomplete?: number
+}
+
+export interface BacktestRequest {
+  league_id?: number
+  date_from?: string
+  date_to?: string
+  mode?: 'single' | 'multi'
+  limit?: number
+  model?: string
+}
+
+export interface BacktestSummary {
+  total: number
+  scored: number
+  success: number
+  degraded: number
+  accuracy_1x2?: number
+  avg_score_rmse?: number
+  avg_subjective_confidence?: number
+}
+
+// ── 数据源配置 ──────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface DataSourceSetting {
+  key: string
+  label: string
+  description: string
+  sensitive: boolean
+  configured: boolean
+  masked: string
+  origin: 'db' | 'env' | 'none'
+}
+
+export interface DataSourceStatus {
+  name: string
+  label: string
+  description: string
+  key_configured: boolean
+  last_ingestion: string | null
+  settings: DataSourceSetting[]
+}
+
+export interface DataSourceTestResult {
+  ok: boolean
+  status: number | null
+  latency_ms: number
+  detail: string
+}
+
+export interface DataSourceTestRequest {
+  source: 'bzzoiro' | 'understat' | 'injuries'
+}
+
+export interface IngestionHistoryEntry {
+  id: string
+  source: string
+  started_at: string
+  finished_at: string | null
+  status: 'success' | 'running' | 'failed'
+  records_count: number | null
+  error_message: string | null
+}
+
+// ── LLM 配置 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface LLMConfig {
+  provider: string
+  model: string
+  base_url: string
+  api_key_configured: boolean
+  api_key_masked: string
+}
+
+export interface LLMUsageStats {
+  total_predictions: number
+  avg_latency_ms: number
+  success_rate: number
+  recent_predictions: Array<{
+    id: number
+    match_id: number
+    model: string
+    created_at: string
+    latency_ms?: number
+    status: 'success' | 'failed'
+  }>
+}
+
+// ── 系统配置 ────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface SystemConfigEntry {
+  key: string
+  value_masked: string
+  description: string
+  is_sensitive: boolean
+}
+
+// ── 专家/终裁独立 LLM 配置 ────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface LLMAgentFieldState {
+  configured: boolean
+  masked: string
+  origin: 'db' | 'env' | 'none'
+}
+
+export interface LLMAgentConfig {
+  id: string
+  label: string
+  effective_model: string
+  fields: {
+    model: LLMAgentFieldState
+    base_url: LLMAgentFieldState
+    api_key: LLMAgentFieldState
+  }
+}
+
+// ── 系统日志 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface LogEntry {
+  ts: number
+  level: string
+  logger: string
+  message: string
+}
+
+// ── 数据源健康/最近采集状态 ─────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface IngestLastFailure {
+  at: string
+  logger: string
+  detail: string
+  note: string
+}
+
+export interface IngestSourceStatus {
+  name: string
+  label: string
+  key_configured: boolean
+  base_url?: string
+  reachable: boolean | null
+  status?: 'key_not_configured' | 'no_data' | 'has_data'
+  last_success_at: string | null
+  latest_match_date?: string | null
+  recent_count: number
+  note: string
+  last_failure: IngestLastFailure | null
+}
+
+// ── 采集任务状态 ──────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface IngestJob {
+  id: string
+  task: string
+  params: Record<string, unknown>
+  status: 'pending' | 'running' | 'success' | 'failed'
+  result: Record<string, unknown> | null
+  error: string | null
+  created_at: string | null
+  started_at: string | null
+  finished_at: string | null
+}
+
+// ── 比赛详情 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface MatchRecentPrediction {
+  id: number
+  provider: string
+  model: string
+  mode: string
+  pred_home_goals: number | null
+  pred_away_goals: number | null
+  alt_pred_home_goals: number | null
+  alt_pred_away_goals: number | null
+  pred_1x2: string | null
+  subjective_confidence: number | null
+  reasoning: string | null
+  status: string
+  settled: boolean
+  correct_1x2?: boolean
+  created_at: string
+  actual_home_goals: number | null
+  actual_away_goals: number | null
+  agent_outputs?: Array<Record<string, any>> | null
+  agent_weights?: Record<string, number> | null
+}
+
+export interface MatchDetailOut {
+  id: number
+  league_code: string | null
+  season: string | null
+  home_team: string
+  away_team: string
+  home_team_zh: string | null
+  away_team_zh: string | null
+  match_date: string
+  match_status: string
+  home_goals: number | null
+  away_goals: number | null
+  match_stage: string | null
+  home_xg: number | null
+  away_xg: number | null
+  stats: MatchStatsDetail | null
+  recent_predictions: MatchRecentPrediction[]
+}
+
+/** bzzoiro /events/{id}/stats/ 返回的详细比赛统计 */
+export interface MatchStatsDetail {
+  home_xg: number | null
+  away_xg: number | null
+  home_shots: number | null
+  away_shots: number | null
+  home_shots_on_target: number | null
+  away_shots_on_target: number | null
+  home_corners: number | null
+  away_corners: number | null
+  home_possession: number | null
+  home_yellow_cards: number | null
+  away_yellow_cards: number | null
+  home_red_cards: number | null
+  away_red_cards: number | null
+  home_big_chances: number | null
+  away_big_chances: number | null
+  home_fouls: number | null
+  away_fouls: number | null
+}
+
+export interface TeamRecentMatch {
+  match_date: string | null
+  home_team: string | null
+  away_team: string | null
+  home_goals: number | null
+  away_goals: number | null
+}
+
+export interface MatchContextOut {
+  home_recent: TeamRecentMatch[]
+  away_recent: TeamRecentMatch[]
+  h2h: TeamRecentMatch[]
+}
+
+// ── 管理区统计 ─────────────────────────────────────────────────
+
+export interface AdminStats {
+  predictions: {
+    total: number
+    last_24h: number
+    last_7d: number
+  }
+  matches?: { total: number; finished: number }
+  stats?: { total: number }
+  standings?: { total: number }
+}

frontend/src/admin/useCommandPalette.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,155 @@
+/**
+ * Admin 后台 - 键盘快捷键: Cmd+K 命令面板
+ *
+ * 提供全局快捷键:
+ *   Cmd/Ctrl+K — 打开命令面板(页面跳转)
+ *   / — 聚焦搜索(日志页)
+ *   r — 刷新当前页面数据(通用)
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
+import { useNavigate } from 'react-router-dom'
+
+interface CommandItem {
+  id: string
+  label: string
+  group: string
+  action: () => void
+}
+
+export function useCommandPalette(pages: Array<{ to: string; label: string; group: string }>) {
+  const [open, setOpen] = useState(false)
+  const [query, setQuery] = useState('')
+  const navigate = useNavigate()
+
+  const items: CommandItem[] = pages.map(p => ({
+    id: p.to,
+    label: p.label,
+    group: p.group,
+    action: () => { navigate(p.to); setOpen(false) },
+  }))
+
+  const filtered = query
+    ? items.filter(i => i.label.toLowerCase().includes(query.toLowerCase()) || i.id.includes(query.toLowerCase()))
+    : items
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const handler = (e: KeyboardEvent) => {
+      // Cmd/Ctrl+K → 命令面板
+      if ((e.metaKey || e.ctrlKey) && e.key === 'k') {
+        e.preventDefault()
+        setOpen(o => !o)
+        setQuery('')
+      }
+      // Escape → 关闭
+      if (e.key === 'Escape' && open) {
+        setOpen(false)
+        setQuery('')
+      }
+    }
+    document.addEventListener('keydown', handler)
+    return () => document.removeEventListener('keydown', handler)
+  }, [open])
+
+  return { open, setOpen, query, setQuery, items: filtered }
+}
+
+/** 命令面板弹窗 */
+export function CommandPalette({
+  open,
+  query,
+  setQuery,
+  items,
+  onClose,
+}: {
+  open: boolean
+  query: string
+  setQuery: (q: string) => void
+  items: CommandItem[]
+  onClose: () => void
+}) {
+  const [selected, setSelected] = useState(0)
+
+  // 重置选中项当列表变化
+  useEffect(() => { setSelected(0) }, [items.length])
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    if (!open) return
+    const handler = (e: KeyboardEvent) => {
+      if (e.key === 'ArrowDown') { e.preventDefault(); setSelected(s => Math.min(s + 1, items.length - 1)) }
+      if (e.key === 'ArrowUp') { e.preventDefault(); setSelected(s => Math.max(s - 1, 0)) }
+      if (e.key === 'Enter' && items[selected]) { items[selected].action(); onClose() }
+    }
+    document.addEventListener('keydown', handler)
+    return () => document.removeEventListener('keydown', handler)
+  }, [open, items, selected, onClose])
+
+  if (!open) return null
+
+  // 按分组聚合
+  const grouped: Record<string, CommandItem[]> = {}
+  for (const item of items) {
+    grouped[item.group] = grouped[item.group] || []
+    grouped[item.group].push(item)
+  }
+
+  return (
+    <div
+      className="fixed inset-0 z-[60] flex items-start justify-center bg-ink-900/50 p-4 pt-[15vh]"
+      onClick={onClose}
+      role="dialog"
+      aria-modal="true"
+      aria-label="命令面板"
+    >
+      <div
+        className="w-full max-w-lg border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 shadow-2xl"
+        onClick={e => e.stopPropagation()}
+      >
+        {/* 搜索框 */}
+        <div className="flex items-center gap-2 border-b border-ink-200 px-3 py-2.5">
+          <span className="text-ink-400">⌘</span>
+          <input
+            value={query}
+            onChange={e => setQuery(e.target.value)}
+            placeholder="输入页面名或路径…"
+            autoFocus
+            className="flex-1 bg-transparent text-sm outline-none placeholder:text-ink-400"
+          />
+          <kbd className="border border-ink-200 px-1.5 py-0.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">ESC</kbd>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 结果列表 */}
+        <div className="max-h-[50vh] overflow-y-auto py-2">
+          {items.length === 0 ? (
+            <p className="py-6 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">无匹配页面</p>
+          ) : (
+            Object.entries(grouped).map(([group, groupItems]) => (
+              <div key={group}>
+                <p className="px-3 py-1 text-2xs font-medium uppercase tracking-widest text-ink-400">{group}</p>
+                {groupItems.map((item, i) => (
+                  <button
+                    key={item.id}
+                    onClick={() => { item.action(); onClose() }}
+                    className={`flex w-full items-center gap-2 px-3 py-2 text-left text-sm transition-colors ${
+                      selected === items.indexOf(item) ? 'bg-paper-100 text-press' : 'text-ink-700 hover:bg-paper-100'
+                    }`}
+                  >
+                    <span className="truncate">{item.label}</span>
+                    <span className="ml-auto text-2xs text-ink-400">{item.id}</span>
+                  </button>
+                ))}
+              </div>
+            ))
+          )}
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 底部提示 */}
+        <div className="flex items-center gap-3 border-t border-ink-200 px-3 py-1.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+          <span>↑↓ 导航</span>
+          <span>↵ 跳转</span>
+          <span>ESC 关闭</span>
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/components/ErrorBoundary.tsx

@@ -30,16 +30,16 @@ export class ErrorBoundary extends Component<Props, State> {
         return this.props.fallback
       }
       return (
-        <div className="min-h-screen flex items-center justify-center bg-gray-50 p-6">
-          <div className="bg-white rounded-lg border border-red-200 p-6 max-w-md text-center space-y-3">
-            <div className="text-4xl">⚠️</div>
-            <h2 className="text-lg font-semibold text-gray-800">页面出现错误</h2>
-            <p className="text-sm text-gray-500">
+        <div className="flex min-h-screen items-center justify-center bg-paper-50 p-6">
+          <div className="max-w-md space-y-3 border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50 p-6 text-center">
+            <p className="text-2xs tracking-[0.3em] text-ink-400">EXCEPTION</p>
+            <h2 className="font-serif text-lg font-bold text-ink-900">页面出现错误</h2>
+            <p className="text-sm leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
               {this.state.error?.message || '未知错误'}
             </p>
             <button
               onClick={() => this.setState({ hasError: false, error: null })}
-              className="bg-blue-600 text-white text-sm px-4 py-2 rounded hover:bg-blue-700"
+              className="btn btn-sm"
             >
               重试
             </button>

frontend/src/components/TeamSideTag.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
+/**
+ * 主客队标志:报刊风小方框字。
+ *
+ * 主队 = 反白实心块,客队 = 细线框,与整版纸色语言一致。
+ * 用法: <TeamSideTag side="home" /> 队名
+ */
+
+export default function TeamSideTag({ side }: { side: 'home' | 'away' }) {
+  return (
+    <span
+      aria-label={side === 'home' ? '主队' : '客队'}
+      className={`inline-block flex-shrink-0 border px-1 text-center font-sans text-2xs leading-4 ${
+        side === 'home'
+          ? 'border-ink-900 bg-ink-900 text-paper-50'
+          : 'border-ink-300 text-ink-400'
+      }`}
+    >
+      {side === 'home' ? '主' : '客'}
+    </span>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 纯文本场景(<option>、字符串拼接)的主客队前缀 */
+export function teamSidePrefix(side: 'home' | 'away'): string {
+  return side === 'home' ? '[主] ' : '[客] '
+}

frontend/src/index.css

@@ -1,3 +1,180 @@
 @tailwind base;
 @tailwind components;
 @tailwind utilities;
+
+/* 毛体草书(刘建毛草) - 国内 CDN,离线回退粗楷体 */
+@font-face {
+  font-family: 'Liu Jian Mao Cao';
+  src: url('https://cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/google/fonts@main/ofl/liujianmaocao/LiuJianMaoCao-Regular.ttf') format('truetype');
+  font-display: swap;
+}
+
+/* 粗毛笔字效果:笔触加粗 + 微描边 */
+.font-brush {
+  font-weight: 700;
+  -webkit-text-stroke: 0.3px currentColor;
+  text-shadow: 0.5px 0.5px 0 currentColor;
+}
+
+/* 页面内容横向轻扫+淡入 */
+.page-content-enter {
+  animation: pageSlideIn 0.3s ease-out;
+}
+@keyframes pageSlideIn {
+  from {
+    opacity: 0;
+    transform: translateX(20px);
+  }
+  to {
+    opacity: 1;
+    transform: translateX(0);
+  }
+}
+
+@layer base {
+  html {
+    -webkit-text-size-adjust: 100%;
+    text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;
+  }
+
+  body {
+    @apply bg-paper-50 text-ink-800 font-sans antialiased;
+    font-feature-settings: 'tnum' 1; /* 数字等宽:比分/百分比不跳动 */
+  }
+
+  ::selection {
+    @apply bg-press-wash text-press;
+  }
+
+  /* 统一焦点环:印报红细线,键盘可达 */
+  :focus-visible {
+    outline: 2px solid #9e1b1b;
+    outline-offset: 2px;
+  }
+
+  /* 细滚动条 */
+  ::-webkit-scrollbar {
+    width: 10px;
+    height: 10px;
+  }
+  ::-webkit-scrollbar-track {
+    background: transparent;
+  }
+  ::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb {
+    @apply rounded-full bg-ink-300;
+  }
+  ::-webkit-scrollbar-thumb:hover {
+    @apply bg-ink-400;
+  }
+
+  /* 尊重「减少动态效果」偏好 */
+  @media (prefers-reduced-motion: reduce) {
+    *,
+    *::before,
+    *::after {
+      animation-duration: 0.01ms !important;
+      animation-iteration-count: 1 !important;
+      transition-duration: 0.01ms !important;
+    }
+  }
+}
+
+@layer components {
+  /* ── 报头双线:粗线在上、细线在下 ── */
+  .masthead-rule {
+    border-top: 3px solid #17140f;
+  }
+
+  /* ── 按钮:方正边框式,悬停反白 ── */
+  .btn {
+    @apply inline-flex items-center justify-center gap-1.5 border border-ink-300 bg-transparent px-3
+           text-sm text-ink-700 transition-colors duration-150
+           hover:border-ink-900 hover:bg-ink-900 hover:text-paper-50
+           disabled:cursor-not-allowed disabled:opacity-40
+           disabled:hover:border-ink-300 disabled:hover:bg-transparent disabled:hover:text-ink-700
+           min-h-[44px] py-1.5;
+  }
+  .btn-sm {
+    @apply px-2.5 text-xs min-h-[36px];
+  }
+  .btn-solid {
+    @apply border-ink-900 bg-ink-900 text-paper-50 hover:border-press hover:bg-press;
+  }
+  .btn-danger {
+    @apply border-press bg-transparent text-press hover:bg-press hover:text-paper-50;
+  }
+
+  /* ── 统一空态 ── */
+  .empty-state {
+    @apply border-y border-ink-200 py-12 text-center;
+  }
+  .empty-state-title {
+    @apply font-serif text-sm text-ink-600;
+  }
+  .empty-state-sub {
+    @apply mt-1.5 text-xs text-ink-400;
+  }
+  .empty-state-action {
+    @apply mt-4 inline-flex items-center gap-2 text-2xs text-press hover:text-press-dark transition-colors;
+  }
+
+  /* ── 统一错误横幅(前台用,后台用 Alert) ── */
+  .error-banner {
+    @apply flex items-start justify-between gap-3 border border-press bg-press-wash px-4 py-3;
+  }
+  .error-banner-title {
+    @apply text-sm font-medium text-press;
+  }
+  .error-banner-detail {
+    @apply mt-0.5 text-xs text-ink-600;
+  }
+
+  /* ── 表单控件:方正、无圆角 ── */
+  .field {
+    @apply border border-ink-300 bg-transparent px-2.5 py-1.5 text-sm text-ink-800
+           transition-colors hover:border-ink-400
+           focus:border-press focus:outline-none;
+  }
+
+  /* ── 版面切换文字标签(联赛/状态/模式) ── */
+  .tab {
+    @apply relative whitespace-nowrap px-0.5 py-1 text-sm text-ink-500 transition-colors hover:text-ink-900;
+  }
+  .tab-on {
+    @apply font-medium text-press;
+  }
+  .tab-on::after {
+    content: '';
+    @apply absolute inset-x-0 bottom-0 h-0.5 bg-press;
+  }
+
+  /* ── 小节标题:宋体加粗 + 墨色底线 ── */
+  .section-head {
+    @apply border-b border-ink-900 pb-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900;
+  }
+
+  /* ── 骨架占位:低调脉动,不用渐变扫光 ── */
+  .skeleton {
+    @apply animate-pulse rounded-none bg-ink-200;
+  }
+
+  /* ── 侧边栏图标:统一样式 + hover过渡到品牌色 ── */
+  .nav-icon {
+    width: 1.125rem;
+    height: 1.125rem;
+    stroke-width: 1.5;
+    flex-shrink: 0;
+    opacity: 0.5;
+    transition: all 0.2s ease;
+  }
+  .nav-icon-wrap:hover .nav-icon,
+  .nav-icon-wrap.active .nav-icon {
+    opacity: 1;
+    color: #9E1B1B;
+    stroke-width: 2;
+  }
+}
+
+/* ── Admin 后台 ──
+   与前台共用同一套报刊风组件(.btn/.field/.tab/.section-head/.skeleton),
+   不再单独维护暗色主题。 */

frontend/src/lib/http.test.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,65 @@
+/**
+ * P0-00: HTTP client method/body/headers 可信度测试。
+ * 运行: node --experimental-strip-types frontend/src/lib/http.test.ts
+ *
+ * 最小环境 polyfill:Node 22 自带 fetch/AbortController,本测试不触发 401 路径,
+ * 故 window.dispatchEvent 不会被调用,无需完整 DOM。
+ */
+import { test } from 'node:test'
+import assert from 'node:assert/strict'
+
+// 最小浏览器环境 polyfill(仅覆盖 http.ts 在 happy path 用到的全局)
+const store: Record<string, string> = {}
+// @ts-expect-error 测试用最小 window stub
+globalThis.window = {
+  dispatchEvent: () => false,
+  localStorage: {
+    getItem: (k: string) => store[k] ?? null,
+    setItem: (k: string, v: string) => { store[k] = v },
+    removeItem: (k: string) => { delete store[k] },
+  },
+}
+
+// 捕获每次 fetch 的入参供断言
+let lastInit: RequestInit | undefined
+globalThis.fetch = async (_url: string, init?: RequestInit) => {
+  lastInit = init
+  return new Response(JSON.stringify({ ok: true }), { status: 200, headers: { 'content-type': 'application/json' } })
+}
+
+const { http } = await import('./http.ts')
+
+test('GET: method=GET, 无 body, 无 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.get('/api/v1/matches')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'GET')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, undefined)
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], undefined)
+})
+
+test('POST: method=POST, 序列化 body, 有 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.post('/api/v1/matches', { a: 1 })
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'POST')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, JSON.stringify({ a: 1 }))
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], 'application/json')
+})
+
+test('POST 空 body: 不设 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.post('/api/v1/matches', undefined)
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'POST')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, undefined)
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], undefined)
+})
+
+test('PUT: method=PUT, 有 body 与 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.put('/api/v1/x', { b: 2 })
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'PUT')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, JSON.stringify({ b: 2 }))
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], 'application/json')
+})
+
+test('DELETE: method=DELETE, 无 body, 无 Content-Type', async () => {
+  await http.delete('/api/v1/x/1')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.method, 'DELETE')
+  assert.equal(lastInit?.body, undefined)
+  assert.equal((lastInit?.headers as Record<string, string>)?.['Content-Type'], undefined)
+})

frontend/src/lib/http.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,104 @@
+/**
+ * 共享 HTTP 客户端(公开站 + Admin 统一)
+ *
+ * 特性:
+ *   - 统一超时(默认 30s,可覆盖)
+ *   - 统一错误处理(ApiError)
+ *   - 401 自动广播(Admin 场景)
+ *   - JSON/HTML 容错解析
+ *   - 请求竞态防护(可选 signal)
+ *
+ * 注: Admin 侧的 admin/api.ts 是本模块的薄门面,不再有第二套实现。
+ */
+
+/** 会话失效事件名,AdminLayout 监听后弹出登录页 */
+export const UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT = 'profeto:unauthorized'
+
+const API_BASE = '/api/v1'
+const DEFAULT_TIMEOUT = 30_000
+
+export class ApiError extends Error {
+  constructor(
+    message: string,
+    public status: number,
+    public data?: unknown,
+  ) {
+    super(message)
+    this.name = 'ApiError'
+  }
+}
+
+interface RequestOptions {
+  timeoutMs?: number
+  skipAuthHandling?: boolean
+  signal?: AbortSignal
+  method?: string
+  body?: string
+}
+
+async function request<T>(path: string, options: RequestOptions = {}): Promise<T> {
+  const url = path.startsWith('http') ? path : path.startsWith('/') ? path : `${API_BASE}${path}`
+  const { timeoutMs = DEFAULT_TIMEOUT, skipAuthHandling, signal } = options
+
+  const controller = new AbortController()
+  const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), timeoutMs)
+
+  // 如果外部传了 signal,也关联到内部 controller
+  if (signal) {
+    signal.addEventListener('abort', () => controller.abort(), { once: true })
+  }
+
+  try {
+    const method = (options.method ?? 'GET').toUpperCase()
+    const body = options.body
+    // 仅当有 body 时设置 Content-Type,避免 GET/DELETE 等无 body 请求被误标
+    const headers: Record<string, string> = body ? { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' } : {}
+    const res = await fetch(url, { signal: controller.signal, method, body, headers })
+
+    if (!res.ok) {
+      const rawText = await res.text()
+      let detail: unknown = rawText
+      try {
+        detail = JSON.parse(rawText)
+      } catch {
+        // 非 JSON(如 HTML 错误页),保留原始文本
+      }
+      let message =
+        detail && typeof detail === 'object' && detail !== null && 'detail' in detail
+          ? String((detail as { detail: unknown }).detail)
+          : `HTTP ${res.status}: ${res.statusText}`
+
+      if (res.status === 401 && !skipAuthHandling) {
+        message += '\n登录已过期,请重新登录。'
+        window.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(UNAUTHORIZED_EVENT))
+      }
+      throw new ApiError(message, res.status, detail)
+    }
+
+    if (res.status === 204) {
+      return undefined as T
+    }
+
+    return res.json() as Promise<T>
+  } catch (err) {
+    if (err instanceof ApiError) throw err
+    if (err instanceof DOMException && err.name === 'AbortError') {
+      throw new ApiError('请求超时,请稍后重试', 0)
+    }
+    throw new ApiError(
+      err instanceof Error ? err.message : '网络错误,请检查连接',
+      0,
+    )
+  } finally {
+    clearTimeout(timer)
+  }
+}
+
+export const http = {
+  get: <T>(path: string, opts?: RequestOptions) => request<T>(path, { ...opts }),
+  post: <T>(path: string, body?: unknown, opts?: RequestOptions) =>
+    request<T>(path, { ...opts, method: 'POST', body: body ? JSON.stringify(body) : undefined }),
+  put: <T>(path: string, body?: unknown, opts?: RequestOptions) =>
+    request<T>(path, { ...opts, method: 'PUT', body: body ? JSON.stringify(body) : undefined }),
+  delete: <T>(path: string, opts?: RequestOptions) => request<T>(path, { ...opts, method: 'DELETE' }),
+}

frontend/src/pages/Matches.tsx

@@ -1,315 +1,282 @@
-import { useCallback, useEffect, useState } from 'react'
-
-interface Match {
-  id: number
-  league_code: string | null
-  season: string | null
-  home_team: string
-  away_team: string
-  home_team_zh: string | null
-  away_team_zh: string | null
-  match_date: string
-  match_status: string
-  home_goals: number | null
-  away_goals: number | null
-  match_stage: string | null
-  home_xg: number | null
-  away_xg: number | null
-}
-
-interface Prediction {
-  prediction_id: number
-  provider: string
-  model: string
-  prompt_version: string | null
-  mode: string
-  pred_home_goals: number | null
-  pred_away_goals: number | null
-  pred_1x2: string | null
-  confidence: number | null
-  reasoning: string | null
-  agent_outputs: AgentReport[] | null
-  agent_weights: Record<string, number> | null
-  context: string
-  latency_ms: number | null
-}
-
-interface AgentReport {
-  agent: string
-  status: string
-  data_sufficiency: string
-  analysis: string
-  home_edge: number | null
-  confidence: number | null
-  key_evidence: string[]
-  exp_home_goals: number | null
-  exp_away_goals: number | null
-  probable_score: string | null
-  model: string
-  latency_ms: number | null
-}
-
-const AGENT_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
-  h2h: '历史交锋',
-  form: '近期状态',
-  stats: '攻防数据',
-  home_away: '主客因素',
-  injuries: '阵容完整性',
-}
-
-const LEAGUES = [
-  { code: 'E0', name: '英超' },
-  { code: 'SP1', name: '西甲' },
-  { code: 'D1', name: '德甲' },
-  { code: 'I1', name: '意甲' },
-  { code: 'F1', name: '法甲' },
-]
+/**
+ * 赛程页(组装层)。
+ *
+ * D3(工程债): 原文件 ~1400 行,已拆分为:
+ *   matches/types.ts                  — 类型与常量
+ *   matches/ui.tsx                    — 原子 UI 小件(Spinner/Skeleton/Switch/日期工具)
+ *   matches/hooks/useMatchesList.ts   — 列表/分页/进行中比赛加载
+ *   matches/hooks/useMatchPredict.ts  — 预测流程状态机
+ *   matches/components/MatchPredictPanel.tsx — 预测弹窗全套
+ *   matches/components/MatchDetailSection.tsx — 赛程行 + 展开详情
+ * 本文件只负责状态装配与版面组织,不含数据获取与展示细节。
+ */
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { fetchMatchDetail, fetchMatchContext } from '../admin/dal'
+import type { MatchDetailOut, MatchContextOut } from '../admin/types'
+import { useMatchesList } from './matches/hooks/useMatchesList'
+import { useMatchPredict } from './matches/hooks/useMatchPredict'
+import { useLeagues } from './matches/hooks/useLeagues'
+import { PredictModal } from './matches/components/MatchPredictPanel'
+import { MatchRow } from './matches/components/MatchDetailSection'
+import { Spinner, SkeletonRows, Switch, formatDateHeader, groupByDate, withinNext3Days } from './matches/ui'
+import { type Match } from './matches/types'
 
 export default function Matches() {
-  const [league, setLeague] = useState('E0')
-  const [status, setStatus] = useState('scheduled')
-  const [matches, setMatches] = useState<Match[]>([])
-  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
-  const [predictingId, setPredictingId] = useState<number | null>(null)
-  const [prediction, setPrediction] = useState<Prediction | null>(null)
-  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
-  const [mode, setMode] = useState<'single' | 'multi'>('multi')
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)  // 列表与预测共用(拆分前即如此)
+  // P1-3: 联赛列表优先请求 /api/v1/leagues,失败/空回退本地五大联赛常量
+  const leagues = useLeagues()
+  const {
+    league, setLeague,
+    status, setStatus,
+    matches,
+    nextCursor,
+    loading,
+    loadingMore,
+    showAllUpcoming, setShowAllUpcoming,
+    liveMatches,
+    load,
+    loadMore,
+  } = useMatchesList({ onError: setError })
 
-  const load = useCallback(async () => {
-    setLoading(true)
-    setError(null)
-    try {
-      const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status, limit: '50' })
-      const res = await fetch(`/api/v1/matches?${params}`)
-      if (!res.ok) throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}`)
-      const data = await res.json()
-      setMatches(data.items)
-    } catch (e) {
-      setError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
-    } finally {
-      setLoading(false)
-    }
-  }, [league, status])
+  const {
+    predictingId,
+    prediction,
+    predictionFor,
+    predict,
+    closePredict,
+  } = useMatchPredict({ onError: setError })
 
-  useEffect(() => { load() }, [load])
+  // ── 详情展开(懒加载,只读,不触发 LLM) ──
+  const [expandedId, setExpandedId] = useState<number | null>(null)
+  const [detailMap, setDetailMap] = useState<Record<number, MatchDetailOut>>({})
+  const [contextMap, setContextMap] = useState<Record<number, MatchContextOut>>({})
+  const [detailLoading, setDetailLoading] = useState<number | null>(null)
 
-  const predict = async (matchId: number) => {
-    setPredictingId(matchId)
-    setError(null)
-    setPrediction(null)
-    try {
-      const res = await fetch('/api/v1/predict', {
-        method: 'POST',
-        headers: { 'Content-Type': 'application/json' },
-        body: JSON.stringify({ match_id: matchId, mode }),
-      })
-      if (!res.ok) {
-        const t = await res.text()
-        throw new Error(`HTTP ${res.status}: ${t}`)
+  // 监听滚动,超过 300px 显示回到顶部按钮
+  const [showBackTop, setShowBackTop] = useState(false)
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const handleScroll = () => setShowBackTop(window.scrollY > 300)
+    window.addEventListener('scroll', handleScroll, { passive: true })
+    return () => window.removeEventListener('scroll', handleScroll)
+  }, [])
+  const scrollToTop = () => window.scrollTo({ top: 0, behavior: 'smooth' })
+
+  const leagueName = leagues.find(l => l.code === league)?.name ?? league
+
+  /** 未开赛默认仅展示未来 3 天;其余状态展示全部。showAllUpcoming=true 时展开全部。 */
+  const isScheduledView = status === 'scheduled'
+  const visibleMatches = (!isScheduledView || showAllUpcoming)
+    ? matches
+    : matches.filter(m => withinNext3Days(m.match_date))
+  // 是否有被折叠的未开赛比赛(用于显示「展开」按钮)
+  const hasHiddenUpcoming = isScheduledView && !showAllUpcoming && matches.length > visibleMatches.length
+
+  /** 展开时懒加载详情: 缓存命中则不再请求 */
+  async function toggleExpand(m: Match) {
+    if (expandedId === m.id) { setExpandedId(null); return }
+    setExpandedId(m.id)
+    if (!detailMap[m.id] || !contextMap[m.id]) {
+      setDetailLoading(m.id)
+      try {
+        const [d, c] = await Promise.all([
+          fetchMatchDetail(m.id).catch(() => null),
+          fetchMatchContext(m.id).catch(() => null),
+        ])
+        if (d) setDetailMap(prev => ({ ...prev, [m.id]: d }))
+        if (c) setContextMap(prev => ({ ...prev, [m.id]: c }))
+      } finally {
+        setDetailLoading(null)
       }
-      const data = await res.json()
-      setPrediction(data)
-    } catch (e) {
-      setError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
-    } finally {
-      setPredictingId(null)
     }
   }
 
-  const fmtDate = (s: string) => {
-    const d = new Date(s)
-    return d.toLocaleString('zh-CN', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit', hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit' })
-  }
-
   return (
-    <div className="space-y-4">
-      {/* 筛选 */}
-      <div className="flex gap-3 items-center flex-wrap">
-        <select value={league} onChange={e => setLeague(e.target.value)}
-          className="border rounded px-3 py-1.5 text-sm">
-          {LEAGUES.map(l => <option key={l.code} value={l.code}>{l.name}</option>)}
-        </select>
-        <select value={status} onChange={e => setStatus(e.target.value)}
-          className="border rounded px-3 py-1.5 text-sm">
-          <option value="scheduled">未开赛</option>
-          <option value="finished">已完赛</option>
-          <option value="">全部</option>
-        </select>
-        <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-sm">
-          <span className="text-gray-500">模式:</span>
+    <div className="space-y-5">
+      {/* ── 联赛版面切换 ── */}
+      <nav className="flex items-center gap-6 overflow-x-auto border-b border-ink-900" aria-label="联赛">
+        {leagues.map(l => (
           <button
-            onClick={() => setMode('single')}
-            className={`px-2 py-1 rounded text-xs ${mode === 'single' ? 'bg-blue-600 text-white' : 'bg-gray-100 text-gray-600'}`}
-          >单次</button>
-          <button
-            onClick={() => setMode('multi')}
-            className={`px-2 py-1 rounded text-xs ${mode === 'multi' ? 'bg-blue-600 text-white' : 'bg-gray-100 text-gray-600'}`}
-          >多 Agent</button>
-        </div>
-        <button onClick={load} disabled={loading}
-          className="bg-blue-600 text-white text-sm px-4 py-1.5 rounded hover:bg-blue-700 disabled:opacity-50">
-          {loading ? '加载中...' : '刷新'}
-        </button>
-        <span className="text-sm text-gray-500">共 {matches.length} 场</span>
+            key={l.code}
+            onClick={() => setLeague(l.code)}
+            className={`relative tab ${league === l.code ? 'tab-on' : ''} font-serif`}
+          >
+            {l.name}
+          </button>
+        ))}
+      </nav>
+
+      {/* ── 第二行:状态 / 模式 / 日期 / 计数 / 刷新(小屏 flex-wrap) ── */}
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-x-4 gap-y-2 text-xs text-ink-500 sm:gap-x-5">
+        <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2">
+          <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">状态</span>
+          <Switch
+            value={status}
+            onChange={setStatus}
+            items={[
+              { v: 'scheduled', label: '未开赛' },
+              { v: 'finished', label: '已完赛' },
+              { v: '', label: '全部' },
+            ]}
+          />
+        </span>
+
+        <span className="ml-auto inline-flex items-center gap-3">
+          <span className="tabular-nums">
+            {isScheduledView && !showAllUpcoming && hasHiddenUpcoming
+              ? `未来3天 ${visibleMatches.length} / 共 ${matches.length} 场`
+              : `共 ${visibleMatches.length} 场`}
+          </span>
+          <button onClick={load} disabled={loading} className="btn btn-sm">
+            {loading ? (<><Spinner /> 获取中</>) : '刷新'}
+          </button>
+        </span>
       </div>
 
+      {/* ── 错误提示(统一 error-banner 样式) ── */}
       {error && (
-        <div className="bg-red-50 border border-red-200 text-red-700 px-4 py-2 rounded text-sm flex items-center justify-between">
-          <span>❌ {error}</span>
-          <button onClick={() => setError(null)} className="text-red-500 hover:text-red-700 text-xs">✕</button>
+        <div className="error-banner">
+          <div>
+            <p className="error-banner-title">请求失败</p>
+            <p className="error-banner-detail">{error}</p>
+          </div>
+          <button onClick={() => setError(null)} className="text-ink-400 transition-colors hover:text-ink-900 text-lg leading-none p-1" aria-label="关闭">×</button>
         </div>
       )}
 
-      {/* 比赛表 */}
-      <div className="bg-white rounded border overflow-hidden">
-        <table className="w-full text-sm">
-          <thead className="bg-gray-100 text-gray-600">
-            <tr>
-              <th className="text-left px-4 py-2">日期</th>
-              <th className="text-left px-4 py-2">主队</th>
-              <th className="text-left px-4 py-2">客队</th>
-              <th className="text-center px-4 py-2">比分</th>
-              <th className="text-center px-4 py-2">状态</th>
-              <th className="text-center px-4 py-2">操作</th>
-            </tr>
-          </thead>
-          <tbody>
-            {loading && (
-              <tr><td colSpan={6} className="text-center text-gray-400 py-8">
-                <span className="inline-block animate-spin mr-2">⏳</span>加载中...
-              </td></tr>
-            )}
-            {!loading && matches.length === 0 && (
-              <tr><td colSpan={6} className="text-center text-gray-400 py-8">暂无数据,请先采集</td></tr>
-            )}
-            {matches.map(m => (
-              <tr key={m.id} className="border-t hover:bg-gray-50">
-                <td className="px-4 py-2 text-gray-600">{fmtDate(m.match_date)}</td>
-                <td className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">{m.home_team_zh || m.home_team}</td>
-                <td className="px-4 py-2 font-medium">{m.away_team_zh || m.away_team}</td>
-                <td className="px-4 py-2 text-center">
-                  {m.home_goals !== null ? `${m.home_goals} - ${m.away_goals}` : '-'}
-                </td>
-                <td className="px-4 py-2 text-center">
-                  <span className={`text-xs px-2 py-0.5 rounded ${
-                    m.match_status === 'finished' ? 'bg-green-100 text-green-700' :
-                    m.match_status === 'scheduled' ? 'bg-blue-100 text-blue-700' : 'bg-gray-100'
-                  }`}>
-                    {m.match_status === 'finished' ? '完赛' : m.match_status === 'scheduled' ? '未开赛' : m.match_status}
-                  </span>
-                </td>
-                <td className="px-4 py-2 text-center">
-                  <button onClick={() => predict(m.id)}
-                    disabled={predictingId === m.id}
-                    className="text-blue-600 hover:underline text-xs disabled:opacity-50">
-                    {predictingId === m.id ? '预测中...' : 'LLM 预测'}
-                  </button>
-                </td>
-              </tr>
-            ))}
-          </tbody>
-        </table>
-      </div>
-
-      {/* 预测中指示 */}
-      {predictingId && (
-        <div className="bg-blue-50 border border-blue-200 text-blue-700 px-4 py-3 rounded text-sm flex items-center gap-2">
-          <span className="inline-block animate-spin">⏳</span>
-          LLM 预测中,请稍候...
-        </div>
+      {/* ── 预测弹窗:进行中可视化 / 结果面板 ── */}
+      {predictionFor && (
+        <PredictModal
+          match={predictionFor}
+          predicting={predictingId === predictionFor.id}
+          prediction={predictingId === predictionFor.id ? null : prediction}
+          error={predictingId === predictionFor.id ? null : error}
+          onClose={closePredict}
+        />
       )}
 
-      {/* 预测结果 */}
-      {prediction && (
-        <div className="bg-white rounded border p-5 space-y-3">
-          <h3 className="font-bold text-lg">🤖 LLM 预测结果</h3>
-          <div className="grid grid-cols-2 md:grid-cols-4 gap-4 text-sm">
-            <div className="bg-blue-50 rounded p-3">
-              <div className="text-gray-500 text-xs">主进球</div>
-              <div className="text-xl font-bold">{prediction.pred_home_goals ?? '-'}</div>
-            </div>
-            <div className="bg-blue-50 rounded p-3">
-              <div className="text-gray-500 text-xs">客进球</div>
-              <div className="text-xl font-bold">{prediction.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}</div>
-            </div>
-            <div className="bg-amber-50 rounded p-3">
-              <div className="text-gray-500 text-xs">胜平负</div>
-              <div className="text-xl font-bold">{prediction.pred_1x2 ?? '-'}</div>
-            </div>
-            <div className="bg-green-50 rounded p-3">
-              <div className="text-gray-500 text-xs">置信度</div>
-              <div className="text-xl font-bold">
-                {prediction.confidence !== null ? `${(prediction.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}%` : '-'}
-              </div>
-            </div>
+      {/* ── 进行中比赛(顶部独立区块,仅未开赛视图展示) ── */}
+      {isScheduledView && liveMatches.length > 0 && (
+        <section aria-label="进行中" className="border border-ink-900 bg-paper-100">
+          <div className="flex items-center gap-2 border-b border-ink-900 px-3 py-2">
+            <span className="inline-block h-2 w-2 animate-pulse rounded-full bg-press" />
+            <span className="text-xs font-medium tracking-wide text-ink-700">进行中 · 实时比分</span>
+            <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">{liveMatches.length} 场</span>
           </div>
-          <div className="text-xs text-gray-400">
-            {prediction.provider} / {prediction.model} · 耗时 {prediction.latency_ms}ms
-            {prediction.mode === 'multi' && ' · 多 Agent 模式'}
-          </div>
-
-          {/* 各专家 agent 报告 */}
-          {prediction.agent_outputs && prediction.agent_outputs.length > 0 && (
-            <div className="space-y-2">
-              <div className="text-sm font-medium text-gray-700">专家 Agent 报告</div>
-              {prediction.agent_outputs.map((r) => (
-                <details key={r.agent} className="bg-white border rounded">
-                  <summary className="cursor-pointer px-3 py-2 text-sm flex items-center justify-between">
-                    <span className="font-medium">
-                      {AGENT_LABELS[r.agent] || r.agent}
-                      {r.status !== 'ok' && (
-                        <span className={`ml-2 text-xs px-1.5 py-0.5 rounded ${
-                          r.status === 'no_data' ? 'bg-gray-100 text-gray-500' : 'bg-red-100 text-red-600'
-                        }`}>
-                          {r.status === 'no_data' ? '无数据' : '失败'}
-                        </span>
-                      )}
+          <div className="divide-y divide-ink-200">
+            {liveMatches.map(m => {
+              const homeName = m.home_team_zh || m.home_team
+              const awayName = m.away_team_zh || m.away_team
+              return (
+                <div key={m.id} className="flex items-center justify-between gap-3 px-3 py-2.5">
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-2 min-w-0">
+                    <span className="w-12 shrink-0 text-center font-serif text-lg font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                      {m.home_goals ?? '-'}
                     </span>
-                    <span className="flex gap-3 text-xs text-gray-500">
-                      {r.home_edge !== null && (
-                        <span className={r.home_edge > 0 ? 'text-blue-600' : r.home_edge < 0 ? 'text-amber-600' : ''}>
-                          主队优势 {r.home_edge > 0 ? '+' : ''}{r.home_edge.toFixed(2)}
-                        </span>
-                      )}
-                      {r.confidence !== null && <span>信心 {(r.confidence * 100).toFixed(0)}%</span>}
-                      {r.probable_score && <span>比分 {r.probable_score}</span>}
-                    </span>
-                  </summary>
-                  <div className="px-3 pb-3 pt-1 space-y-2 text-sm">
-                    {r.analysis && <p className="text-gray-700">{r.analysis}</p>}
-                    {r.key_evidence.length > 0 && (
-                      <ul className="text-xs text-gray-500 list-disc pl-4">
-                        {r.key_evidence.map((e, i) => <li key={i}>{e}</li>)}
-                      </ul>
-                    )}
-                    {r.exp_home_goals !== null && r.exp_away_goals !== null && (
-                      <div className="text-xs text-gray-500">
-                        进球期望: {r.exp_home_goals.toFixed(1)} - {r.exp_away_goals.toFixed(1)}
-                      </div>
-                    )}
-                    <div className="text-xs text-gray-400">
-                      数据充分度 {r.data_sufficiency} · {r.model} · {r.latency_ms}ms
-                    </div>
+                    <span className="min-w-0 truncate text-xs text-ink-700">{homeName}</span>
                   </div>
-                </details>
-              ))}
-            </div>
-          )}
-
-          {prediction.reasoning && (
-            <div className="bg-gray-50 rounded p-3">
-              <div className="text-xs text-gray-500 mb-1">推理过程</div>
-              <div className="text-sm whitespace-pre-wrap">{prediction.reasoning}</div>
-            </div>
-          )}
-          <details className="text-xs">
-            <summary className="cursor-pointer text-gray-500 hover:text-gray-700">查看完整上下文</summary>
-            <pre className="mt-2 bg-gray-900 text-green-300 p-3 rounded overflow-x-auto text-xs">
-              {prediction.context}
-            </pre>
-          </details>
-        </div>
+                  <span className="shrink-0 text-2xs text-ink-400">vs</span>
+                  <div className="flex items-center gap-2 min-w-0">
+                    <span className="min-w-0 truncate text-right text-xs text-ink-700">{awayName}</span>
+                    <span className="w-12 shrink-0 text-center font-serif text-lg font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">
+                      {m.away_goals ?? '-'}
+                    </span>
+                  </div>
+                </div>
+              )
+            })}
+          </div>
+        </section>
       )}
+
+      {/* ── 赛程栏:表格化,行间细线,按日期分组 ── */}
+      <section aria-label="赛程">
+        {loading && <SkeletonRows n={4} />}
+
+        {!loading && visibleMatches.length === 0 && (
+          <div className="empty-state">
+            {matches.length > 0 ? (
+              <>
+                <p className="empty-state-title">未来 3 天暂无 {leagueName} 比赛</p>
+                <p className="empty-state-sub">已导入 {matches.length} 场未开赛,点击下方按钮查看</p>
+              </>
+            ) : (
+              <>
+                <p className="empty-state-title">本版暂无赛程</p>
+                <p className="empty-state-sub">请先通过「数据采集」导入 {leagueName} 的比赛数据</p>
+                <a href="/admin/collection" className="empty-state-action">
+                  前往数据采集 <span aria-hidden="true">→</span>
+                </a>
+              </>
+            )}
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {!loading && groupByDate(visibleMatches).map(([dateKey, group]) => (
+          <div key={dateKey}>
+            {/* 日期分组头:sticky 但 z 低于弹窗 z-50 */}
+            <div className="sticky top-0 z-20 border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-3 py-2 text-xs font-medium tracking-wide text-ink-600">
+              {formatDateHeader(dateKey)}
+              <span className="ml-2 text-2xs font-normal text-ink-400">{group.length} 场</span>
+            </div>
+            {group.map(m => (
+              <MatchRow
+                key={m.id}
+                m={m}
+                busy={predictingId === m.id}
+                expanded={expandedId === m.id}
+                detail={detailMap[m.id]}
+                ctx={contextMap[m.id]}
+                detailLoading={detailLoading === m.id}
+                onToggle={() => toggleExpand(m)}
+                onPredict={predict}
+              />
+            ))}
+          </div>
+        ))}
+
+        {/* 单一「加载更多」按钮:3 天视图时先展开,展开后从服务器拉取下一页 */}
+        {!loading && (hasHiddenUpcoming || nextCursor) && (
+          <div className="flex justify-center pt-4">
+            {hasHiddenUpcoming ? (
+              <button
+                onClick={() => setShowAllUpcoming(true)}
+                className="btn btn-outline min-h-[44px] w-full max-w-xs sm:w-auto"
+              >
+                显示后续 {matches.length - visibleMatches.length} 场未开赛
+              </button>
+            ) : (
+              <button onClick={loadMore} disabled={loadingMore} className="btn min-h-[44px] w-full max-w-xs sm:w-auto">
+                {loadingMore ? (<><Spinner /> 获取中</>) : '载入更多赛程'}
+              </button>
+            )}
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {/* 已展开全部但未开赛:提供「收起」回未来 3 天 */}
+        {!loading && isScheduledView && showAllUpcoming && matches.length > 0 && (
+          <div className="flex justify-center pt-2">
+            <button
+              onClick={() => setShowAllUpcoming(false)}
+              className="text-xs text-ink-400 hover:text-ink-700 transition-colors"
+            >
+              收起,仅显示未来 3 天
+            </button>
+          </div>
+        )}
+      </section>
+
+      {/* 回到顶部按钮 */}
+      <button
+        onClick={scrollToTop}
+        className={`fixed bottom-6 right-6 z-40 flex h-10 w-10 items-center justify-center rounded-full border border-ink-200 bg-paper-50 text-ink-600 shadow-lg transition-all duration-300 hover:border-ink-400 hover:text-ink-900 ${
+          showBackTop ? 'translate-y-0 opacity-100' : 'translate-y-4 opacity-0 pointer-events-none'
+        }`}
+        aria-label="回到顶部"
+      >
+        <svg className="h-4 w-4" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth={2}>
+          <path strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" d="M5 15l7-7 7 7" />
+        </svg>
+      </button>
     </div>
   )
 }

frontend/src/pages/Standings.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,238 @@
+/**
+ * 主站 - 联赛积分榜页
+ *
+ * 展示各联赛最新积分榜(位置/积分/净胜/xG差/近期走势/分区),
+ * 数据来自 bzzoiro /leagues/{id}/standings/ 管线采集。
+ */
+
+import { useEffect, useState, useCallback } from 'react'
+import { fetchStandings } from '../admin/dal'
+import type { StandingsLeague, StandingRow } from '../admin/dal'
+import { useLeagues } from './matches/hooks/useLeagues'
+import { Spinner } from '../admin/components'
+
+const ZONE_META: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
+  // 欧战资格
+  'Champions League': { label: '欧冠区', cls: 'bg-emerald-100 text-emerald-700' },
+  'Champions League Qualification': { label: '欧冠资格', cls: 'bg-emerald-100 text-emerald-700' },
+  'Europa League': { label: '欧联区', cls: 'bg-amber-100 text-amber-700' },
+  'Conference League': { label: '欧协杯', cls: 'bg-sky-100 text-sky-700' },
+  'Conference League Qualification': { label: '欧协杯', cls: 'bg-sky-100 text-sky-700' },
+  'Europa Conference League': { label: '欧协杯', cls: 'bg-sky-100 text-sky-700' },
+  'Europa Conference League Qualification': { label: '欧协杯', cls: 'bg-sky-100 text-sky-700' },
+  // 升级
+  'Championship': { label: '升级区', cls: 'bg-emerald-100 text-emerald-700' },
+  'Promotion': { label: '升级区', cls: 'bg-emerald-100 text-emerald-700' },
+  'Promotion Group': { label: '升级组', cls: 'bg-emerald-100 text-emerald-700' },
+  // 降级
+  'Relegation': { label: '降级区', cls: 'bg-rose-100 text-rose-700' },
+  'Relegation Playoffs': { label: '降级附加赛', cls: 'bg-orange-100 text-orange-700' },
+  'Relegation Group': { label: '降级组', cls: 'bg-rose-100 text-rose-700' },
+  // 附加赛
+  'Playoffs': { label: '附加赛', cls: 'bg-amber-100 text-amber-700' },
+  'Championship Playoffs': { label: '升级附加赛', cls: 'bg-amber-100 text-amber-700' },
+  'Qualification Playoffs': { label: '资格附加赛', cls: 'bg-sky-100 text-sky-700' },
+  'Qualification': { label: '资格赛', cls: 'bg-sky-100 text-sky-700' },
+}
+
+function zoneBadge(zone?: string | null) {
+  if (!zone) return null
+  const meta = ZONE_META[zone] ?? { label: zone, cls: 'bg-ink-100 text-ink-600' }
+  return <span className={`whitespace-nowrap rounded px-1.5 py-0.5 text-2xs font-medium ${meta.cls}`}>{meta.label}</span>
+}
+
+/** 近期走势串(W/D/L) → 彩色圆点 */
+function FormDots({ form }: { form?: string | null }) {
+  if (!form) return <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">—</span>
+  const colorMap: Record<string, string> = { W: 'bg-emerald-500', D: 'bg-ink-300', L: 'bg-rose-500' }
+  return (
+    <span className="inline-flex gap-0.5">
+      {form.slice(0, 5).split('').map((c, i) => (
+        <span key={i} className={`inline-block h-1.5 w-1.5 rounded-full ${colorMap[c] ?? 'bg-ink-200'}`} />
+      ))}
+    </span>
+  )
+}
+
+export default function StandingsPage() {
+  // 统一数据源:复用 useLeagues hook(优先 API,失败回退本地常量)
+  const leagues = useLeagues()
+  const [standings, setStandings] = useState<StandingsLeague[]>([])
+  const [activeLeague, setActiveLeague] = useState<string>('')
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(true)
+  const [switching, setSwitching] = useState(false)  // 切换联赛中
+  const [error, setError] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [showBackTop, setShowBackTop] = useState(false)  // 回到顶部按钮显示态
+
+  // 监听滚动,超过 300px 显示回到顶部按钮
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const handleScroll = () => setShowBackTop(window.scrollY > 300)
+    window.addEventListener('scroll', handleScroll, { passive: true })
+    return () => window.removeEventListener('scroll', handleScroll)
+  }, [])
+
+  const scrollToTop = () => window.scrollTo({ top: 0, behavior: 'smooth' })
+
+  const load = useCallback(async (code?: string) => {
+    setLoading(true)
+    setError(null)
+    try {
+      const data = await fetchStandings(code)
+      setStandings(data.leagues)
+      if (!activeLeague && data.leagues.length > 0) {
+        setActiveLeague(data.leagues[0].league_code)
+      }
+    } catch (err) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '加载失败')
+    } finally {
+      setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [activeLeague])
+
+  useEffect(() => { load() }, []) // eslint-disable-line react-hooks/exhaustive-deps
+
+  // 切换联赛(带加载态,禁用 tab 防重复点击)
+  const switchLeague = async (code: string) => {
+    if (code === activeLeague || switching) return
+    setSwitching(true)
+    setActiveLeague(code)
+    try {
+      await fetchStandings(code).then(data => setStandings(data.leagues))
+    } catch (err) {
+      setError(err instanceof Error ? err.message : '加载失败')
+    } finally {
+      setSwitching(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  const active = standings.find(l => l.league_code === activeLeague) ?? standings[0]
+
+  return (
+    <div className="space-y-6">
+      {/* 联赛切换 */}
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap gap-2">
+        {leagues.map(l => {
+          // 标记该联赛是否有积分榜数据:有数据可正常切换,无数据也可选中但显示空态
+          const hasData = standings.some(s => s.league_code === l.code)
+          const isEmpty = activeLeague === l.code && !hasData
+          return (
+            <button
+              key={l.code}
+              onClick={() => switchLeague(l.code)}
+              disabled={switching}
+              title={hasData ? undefined : '暂无积分榜数据'}
+              className={`rounded border px-3 py-1.5 text-xs transition-colors disabled:opacity-50 ${
+                activeLeague === l.code
+                  ? 'border-ink-900 bg-ink-900 text-paper-50'
+                  : 'border-ink-200 text-ink-500 hover:border-ink-300'
+              } ${!hasData ? 'border-dashed' : ''}`}
+            >
+              {l.name}
+            </button>
+          )
+        })}
+      </div>
+
+      {error && (
+        <div className="border border-rose-300 bg-rose-50 px-4 py-3 text-sm text-rose-700">
+          {error}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {loading && (
+        <div className="flex justify-center py-12 text-xs text-ink-400">加载中…</div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 切换联赛时的轻量加载指示 */}
+      {switching && !loading && (
+        <div className="flex items-center gap-2 border-b border-ink-200 px-1 py-2 text-xs text-ink-400">
+          <Spinner /> 切换联赛中…
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {!loading && !active && (
+        <div className="border-y border-ink-200 py-12 text-center">
+          <p className="font-serif text-sm text-ink-600">暂无积分榜数据</p>
+          <p className="mt-1.5 text-xs text-ink-400">
+            请先在管理后台「数据采集」页运行「积分榜」任务。
+          </p>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {active && (
+        <div>
+          <div className="mb-3 flex items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 pb-2">
+            <div>
+              <h2 className="font-serif text-lg font-bold text-ink-900">
+                {active.league_name}
+              </h2>
+              <p className="text-xs text-ink-400">
+                {active.season} 赛季 · {active.rows.length} 队
+                {active.retrieved_at && ` · 更新于 ${new Date(active.retrieved_at).toLocaleDateString('zh-CN')}`}
+              </p>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+
+          {/* 积分榜表格 */}
+          <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+            <table className="w-full min-w-[640px] text-xs">
+              <thead>
+                <tr className="border-b border-ink-200 text-left text-ink-400">
+                  <th className="w-8 py-2 font-medium">#</th>
+                  <th className="py-2 font-medium">球队</th>
+                  <th className="w-10 text-center py-2 font-medium">赛</th>
+                  <th className="w-10 text-center py-2 font-medium">胜</th>
+                  <th className="w-10 text-center py-2 font-medium">平</th>
+                  <th className="w-10 text-center py-2 font-medium">负</th>
+                  <th className="w-12 text-center py-2 font-medium">进/失</th>
+                  <th className="w-12 text-center py-2 font-medium">净</th>
+                  <th className="w-14 text-center py-2 font-medium">积分</th>
+                  <th className="w-16 text-center py-2 font-medium">xG±</th>
+                  <th className="w-20 text-center py-2 font-medium">走势</th>
+                  <th className="w-16 text-right py-2 font-medium">区</th>
+                </tr>
+              </thead>
+              <tbody>
+                {active.rows.map((r: StandingRow) => (
+                  <tr key={r.position} className="border-b border-ink-100 hover:bg-paper-100">
+                    <td className="py-2 font-medium text-ink-700">{r.position}</td>
+                    <td className="py-2 font-medium text-ink-900">{r.team}</td>
+                    <td className="text-center py-2 text-ink-500">{r.played}</td>
+                    <td className="text-center py-2 text-ink-500">{r.won}</td>
+                    <td className="text-center py-2 text-ink-500">{r.drawn}</td>
+                    <td className="text-center py-2 text-ink-500">{r.lost}</td>
+                    <td className="text-center py-2 text-ink-500">{r.goals_for}/{r.goals_against}</td>
+                    <td className={`text-center py-2 ${r.goal_diff > 0 ? 'text-emerald-600' : r.goal_diff < 0 ? 'text-rose-600' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
+                      {r.goal_diff > 0 ? `+${r.goal_diff}` : r.goal_diff}
+                    </td>
+                    <td className="text-center py-2 font-bold text-ink-900">{r.points}</td>
+                    <td className="text-center py-2 text-ink-500">
+                      {r.xg_for != null && r.xg_against != null
+                        ? `${(r.xg_for - r.xg_against).toFixed(1)}`
+                        : '—'}
+                    </td>
+                    <td className="py-2"><div className="flex justify-center"><FormDots form={r.form} /></div></td>
+                    <td className="py-2 text-right">{zoneBadge(r.zone)}</td>
+                  </tr>
+                ))}
+              </tbody>
+            </table>
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 回到顶部按钮 */}
+      <button
+        onClick={scrollToTop}
+        className={`fixed bottom-6 right-6 z-40 flex h-10 w-10 items-center justify-center rounded-full border border-ink-200 bg-paper-50 text-ink-600 shadow-lg transition-all duration-300 hover:border-ink-400 hover:text-ink-900 ${
+          showBackTop ? 'translate-y-0 opacity-100' : 'translate-y-4 opacity-0 pointer-events-none'
+        }`}
+        aria-label="回到顶部"
+      >
+        <svg className="h-4 w-4" fill="none" viewBox="0 0 24 24" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth={2}>
+          <path strokeLinecap="round" strokeLinejoin="round" d="M5 15l7-7 7 7" />
+        </svg>
+      </button>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/AgentsPanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,171 @@
+/**
+ * AgentsPanel: 五路专家意见 —— 可折叠 + 状态摘要 + 权重条形图 + 单路详情。
+ *
+ * P3-1: 从 MatchPredictPanel.PredictionPanel 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。
+ */
+import { useState } from 'react'
+import type { AgentReport, Prediction } from '../../types'
+import { AGENT_LABELS, CN_NUM } from '../../types'
+
+const STATUS_BADGE: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
+  ok: { label: '正常', cls: 'text-ink-500' },
+  no_data: { label: '无数据', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  error: { label: '调用失败', cls: 'text-press' },
+  parse_error: { label: '解析失败', cls: 'text-press' },
+}
+
+const SUFFICIENCY_LABEL: Record<string, string> = {
+  high: '充分',
+  medium: '一般',
+  low: '偏少',
+  none: '无',
+}
+
+/** home_edge(-1~1,正=利主队)的可视化:以中线为原点的双向细条 */
+function EdgeBar({ value }: { value: number }) {
+  const v = Math.max(-1, Math.min(1, value))
+  const half = Math.abs(v) * 50
+  return (
+    <div className="relative h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
+      <span className="absolute left-1/2 top-1/2 h-2 w-px -translate-x-1/2 -translate-y-1/2 bg-ink-400" />
+      <span
+        className={`absolute top-0 h-px transition-all duration-500 ${v >= 0 ? 'bg-press' : 'bg-ink-600'}`}
+        style={
+          v >= 0
+            ? { left: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
+            : { right: '50%', width: `${half}%` }
+        }
+      />
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 单路专家意见:汉字编号 + 细线行 */
+function AgentCard({ report: r, no }: { report: AgentReport; no: string }) {
+  const badge = STATUS_BADGE[r.status] ?? { label: r.status, cls: 'text-ink-400' }
+  const inactive = r.status !== 'ok'
+
+  return (
+    <details className="group border-b border-ink-200">
+      <summary className="flex cursor-pointer list-none items-baseline gap-2.5 px-1 py-3">
+        <span className="font-serif text-sm text-ink-400">{no}</span>
+        <span className="text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{AGENT_LABELS[r.agent] ?? r.agent}</span>
+        <span className={`text-2xs ${badge.cls}`}>{badge.label}</span>
+
+        <span className="ml-auto flex items-baseline gap-3 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+          {r.status === 'ok' && r.subjective_confidence !== null && (
+            <span>信心 {Math.round(r.subjective_confidence * 100)}%</span>
+          )}
+          {r.status === 'ok' && r.probable_score && (
+            <span className="font-serif font-bold text-ink-800">{r.probable_score}</span>
+          )}
+          <svg viewBox="0 0 20 20" className="h-3 w-3 self-center text-ink-300 transition-transform group-open:rotate-90" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true">
+            <path d="M7.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0l4 4a1 1 0 010 1.4l-4 4a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L10.6 10 7.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
+          </svg>
+        </span>
+      </summary>
+
+      <div className="space-y-3 px-1 pb-4 pl-7">
+        {inactive && (
+          <p className="text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">
+            {r.status === 'no_data' && '该维度没有可用数据,已跳过 LLM 分析以节省额度(不影响其他专家)。'}
+            {r.status === 'error' && '该专家调用失败,本次结论未纳入其视角(fail-open 设计,不阻断整体预测)。'}
+            {r.status === 'parse_error' && '模型输出未通过格式校验,该报告已丢弃。'}
+          </p>
+        )}
+
+        {!inactive && r.home_edge !== null && (
+          <div>
+            <div className="mb-1.5 flex items-baseline justify-between text-2xs">
+              <span className="text-ink-500">主队优势</span>
+              <span className={`font-semibold tabular-nums ${r.home_edge > 0 ? 'text-press' : r.home_edge < 0 ? 'text-ink-700' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
+                {r.home_edge > 0 ? '+' : ''}{r.home_edge.toFixed(2)}
+              </span>
+            </div>
+            <EdgeBar value={r.home_edge} />
+            <div className="mt-1 flex justify-between text-2xs text-ink-400">
+              <span>利客队</span>
+              <span>利主队</span>
+            </div>
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {r.analysis && (
+          <p className="font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{r.analysis}</p>
+        )}
+
+        {r.key_evidence.length > 0 && (
+          <ul className="space-y-1.5">
+            {r.key_evidence.map((e, i) => (
+              <li key={i} className="flex gap-2 text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+                <span className="flex-shrink-0 text-ink-300" aria-hidden="true">—</span>
+                <span>{e}</span>
+              </li>
+            ))}
+          </ul>
+        )}
+
+        {r.exp_home_goals !== null && r.exp_away_goals !== null && (
+          <p className="text-xs text-ink-500">
+            进球期望 <span className="font-serif font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-900">{r.exp_home_goals.toFixed(1)} - {r.exp_away_goals.toFixed(1)}</span>
+          </p>
+        )}
+
+        {!inactive && (
+          <p className="border-t border-ink-100 pt-2.5 text-2xs text-ink-400">
+            数据充分度 {SUFFICIENCY_LABEL[r.data_sufficiency] ?? r.data_sufficiency}
+            <span className="mx-2 text-ink-200">|</span>
+            <span className="font-mono">{r.model}</span>
+            {r.latency_ms !== null && <span className="ml-2 tabular-nums">{r.latency_ms}ms</span>}
+          </p>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </details>
+  )
+}
+
+export function AgentsPanel({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
+  const [expertsOpen, setExpertsOpen] = useState(false)
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+  const reports = prediction.agent_outputs ?? []
+  const okReports = reports.filter(r => r.status === 'ok')
+
+  if (reports.length === 0) return null
+
+  return (
+    <section>
+      <button
+        onClick={() => setExpertsOpen(o => !o)}
+        className="flex w-full items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 pb-2 text-left"
+      >
+        <span className="section-head mb-0">五路专家意见({okReports.length}/{reports.length} 路有效)</span>
+        <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">{expertsOpen ? '收起' : '展开'}</span>
+      </button>
+
+      {!degraded && prediction.agent_weights && Object.keys(prediction.agent_weights).length > 0 && (
+        <div className="mt-3 space-y-1.5">
+          <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">终裁权重分布</span>
+          {Object.entries(prediction.agent_weights)
+            .sort((a, b) => b[1] - a[1])
+            .map(([k, v]) => (
+              <div key={k} className="grid grid-cols-[96px_minmax(0,1fr)_40px] items-center gap-2">
+                <span className="truncate text-2xs text-ink-500">{AGENT_LABELS[k] ?? k}</span>
+                <div className="h-1.5 bg-paper-100">
+                  <div className="h-full bg-press" style={{ width: `${Math.round(v * 100)}%` }} />
+                </div>
+                <span className="text-right text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">{Math.round(v * 100)}%</span>
+              </div>
+            ))}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {expertsOpen && (
+        <div className="mt-2">
+          {reports.map((r, i) => (
+            <AgentCard key={r.agent} report={r} no={CN_NUM[i] ?? String(i + 1)} />
+          ))}
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </section>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/MatchDetailSection.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,369 @@
+/**
+ * MatchDetailSection: 赛程行(MatchRow)+ 展开详情面板(统计/近况/H2H/历史预测)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。MatchRow 原先是主组件内
+ * group.map 的内联 JSX,现接收回调(onToggle/onPredict)保持行为一致;
+ * 展开懒加载的 state 仍由页面持有。
+ */
+import TeamSideTag from '../../../components/TeamSideTag'
+import { fetchMatchDetail, fetchMatchContext } from '../../../admin/dal'
+import type { MatchDetailOut, MatchContextOut, MatchRecentPrediction, TeamRecentMatch } from '../../../admin/types'
+import type { MatchStatsDetail } from '../../../admin/types'
+import { STATUS_META } from '../types'
+import type { Match } from '../types'
+import { Spinner } from '../ui'
+
+/** 比赛详情面板:双方近况/H2H + 历史预测列表(只读) */
+function MatchDetailPanel({
+  match, detail, ctx, loading,
+}: {
+  match: Match
+  detail: MatchDetailOut | undefined
+  ctx: MatchContextOut | undefined
+  loading: boolean
+}) {
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+  const finished = match.match_status === 'finished'
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-b border-ink-200 bg-paper-100/50 px-3 py-4">
+      {loading && (
+        <div className="flex items-center gap-2 text-xs text-ink-500"><Spinner /> 加载详情中…</div>
+      )}
+
+      {!loading && !detail && !ctx && (
+        <p className="py-4 text-center text-xs text-ink-400">暂无详情数据</p>
+      )}
+
+      {!loading && (detail || ctx) && (
+        <div className="space-y-5">
+          {/* 比分区(终场/当前比分 + 状态 + 预测按钮) */}
+          <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-between gap-3">
+            <div className="text-center">
+              <p className="font-serif text-3xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900">
+                {match.home_goals ?? '-'}{' '}<span className="text-ink-300">:</span>{' '}{match.away_goals ?? '-'}
+              </p>
+              <p className="mt-1 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                {match.match_stage || ''} {match.match_status === 'finished' ? '· 已完赛' : match.match_status === 'scheduled' ? '· 未开赛' : `· ${match.match_status}`}
+              </p>
+              {match.home_xg != null && match.away_xg != null && (
+                <p className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">xG {match.home_xg.toFixed(1)}–{match.away_xg.toFixed(1)}</p>
+              )}
+            </div>
+            {!finished && (
+              <span className="text-2xs text-ink-500">
+                点击行首「预测」按钮发起多专家分析
+              </span>
+            )}
+          </div>
+
+          {/* 比赛详细统计(bzzoiro /events/{id}/stats/) */}
+          {detail?.stats && (
+            <MatchStatsPanel stats={detail.stats} homeName={homeName} awayName={awayName} />
+          )}
+
+          {/* 双方近况 + H2H */}
+          {(ctx?.home_recent?.length || ctx?.away_recent?.length || ctx?.h2h?.length) ? (
+            <div className="grid gap-4 sm:grid-cols-3">
+              <RecentBlock title={`${homeName} 近况`} rows={ctx?.home_recent} side="home" />
+              <RecentBlock title={`${awayName} 近况`} rows={ctx?.away_recent} side="away" />
+              <RecentBlock title="历史交锋(H2H)" rows={ctx?.h2h} side="h2h" />
+            </div>
+          ) : (
+            !loading && <p className="text-2xs text-ink-400">暂无近期对战数据</p>
+          )}
+
+          {/* 历史预测列表 */}
+          <div>
+            <h4 className="section-head mb-2">历史预测({detail?.recent_predictions?.length ?? 0})</h4>
+            {detail?.recent_predictions?.length ? (
+              <div className="space-y-2">
+                {detail.recent_predictions.map(p => (
+                  <PredictionHistoryRow key={p.id} p={p} />
+                ))}
+              </div>
+            ) : (
+              <p className="py-3 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">该场比赛暂无预测记录</p>
+            )}
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 赛程表一行:可点击展开详情;展开时懒加载详情(只读,不触发 LLM) */
+export function MatchRow({
+  m,
+  busy,
+  expanded,
+  detail,
+  ctx,
+  detailLoading,
+  onToggle,
+  onPredict,
+}: {
+  m: Match
+  busy: boolean
+  expanded: boolean
+  detail: MatchDetailOut | undefined
+  ctx: MatchContextOut | undefined
+  detailLoading: boolean
+  onToggle: () => void
+  onPredict: (m: Match) => void
+}) {
+  const st = STATUS_META[m.match_status] ?? { label: m.match_status, cls: 'text-ink-400' }
+  const homeName = m.home_team_zh || m.home_team
+  const awayName = m.away_team_zh || m.away_team
+  const finished = m.match_status === 'finished'
+
+  return (
+    <div>
+      {/* 行:可点击展开 */}
+      <div
+        className={`border-b border-ink-200 px-4 py-5 transition-colors hover:bg-paper-100/70 cursor-pointer sm:px-1 sm:py-4 ${
+          expanded ? 'bg-paper-100/60' : ''
+        }`}
+        onClick={onToggle}
+        role="button"
+        tabIndex={0}
+        onKeyDown={e => { if (e.key === 'Enter') onToggle() }}
+        aria-expanded={expanded}
+      >
+      {/* 桌面 grid: 日期 | 主队 | 比分 | 客队 | 状态 | 按钮 */}
+      <div className="flex flex-col gap-3 sm:grid sm:grid-cols-[96px_minmax(0,1fr)_72px_minmax(0,1fr)_64px_88px] sm:items-center sm:gap-x-4 sm:gap-y-0">
+        {/* 日期 + 状态:小屏同行;桌面 date 单独一列 */}
+        <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs sm:contents">
+          <span className="tabular-nums text-ink-500 sm:text-xs">{fmtTime(m.match_date)}</span>
+          <span className={`sm:hidden ${st.cls}`}>{st.label}</span>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 主队 + 比分 + 客队:移动端 grid 三列(严格居中),桌面端 grid 分列 */}
+        <div className="grid grid-cols-[1fr_auto_1fr] items-center gap-4 sm:contents">
+          {/* 主队(右对齐) */}
+          <span className="flex min-w-0 items-center justify-end gap-2">
+            <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+            <span className="truncate text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{homeName}</span>
+          </span>
+
+          {/* 比分 / VS(严格居中) */}
+          <span className="flex flex-col items-center justify-center">
+            {m.home_goals !== null && m.away_goals !== null ? (
+              <span className="font-serif text-xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900 sm:text-xl">
+                {m.home_goals}<span className="mx-1 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>{m.away_goals}
+              </span>
+            ) : (
+              <span className="text-sm tracking-[0.2em] text-ink-500">VS</span>
+            )}
+            {m.home_xg !== null && m.away_xg !== null && (
+              <span className="mt-0.5 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
+                xG {m.home_xg.toFixed(1)}–{m.away_xg.toFixed(1)}
+              </span>
+            )}
+          </span>
+
+          {/* 客队(左对齐) */}
+          <span className="flex min-w-0 items-center gap-2">
+            <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+            <span className="truncate text-sm font-medium text-ink-900">{awayName}</span>
+          </span>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 状态标签:小屏隐藏(已有);桌面用徽标样式 */}
+        <span className="hidden text-right sm:block">
+          <span className={`inline-block border px-1.5 py-0.5 text-2xs leading-tight ${st.cls} ${
+            m.match_status === 'finished'
+              ? 'border-ink-200 text-ink-500'
+              : m.match_status === 'scheduled'
+                ? 'border-ink-300 text-ink-600'
+                : 'border-press/30 text-press'
+          }`}>
+            {st.label}
+          </span>
+        </span>
+
+        {/* 预测按钮(统一,响应式尺寸) */}
+        {!finished && (
+          <div className="flex justify-end" onClick={e => e.stopPropagation()}>
+            <button
+              onClick={() => onPredict(m)}
+              disabled={busy}
+              className={`btn ${busy ? '' : 'btn-solid'} w-full min-h-[44px] sm:w-[84px] sm:min-h-0 sm:btn-sm`}
+              title="以多专家模式预测这场"
+            >
+              {busy ? (<><Spinner /> 预测中</>) : '预测'}
+            </button>
+          </div>
+        )}
+      </div>
+      </div>{/* 关闭可点击行 */}
+
+      {/* 展开详情面板 */}
+      {expanded && (
+        <MatchDetailPanel
+          match={m} detail={detail} ctx={ctx}
+          loading={detailLoading}
+        />
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 行内时间展示:只显示 HH:mm(日期由分组头承担) */
+function fmtTime(s: string): string {
+  const d = new Date(s)
+  return d.toLocaleTimeString('zh-CN', { hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', hour12: false })
+}
+
+/** 比赛详细统计面板(bzzoiro /events/{id}/stats/) */
+function MatchStatsPanel({
+  stats, homeName, awayName,
+}: { stats: MatchStatsDetail; homeName: string; awayName: string }) {
+  const rows: Array<{ label: string; home: number | null; away: number | null; highlight?: 'high' | 'low' }> = [
+    { label: '预期进球(xG)', home: stats.home_xg, away: stats.away_xg },
+    { label: '射门', home: stats.home_shots, away: stats.away_shots },
+    { label: '射正', home: stats.home_shots_on_target, away: stats.away_shots_on_target },
+    { label: '角球', home: stats.home_corners, away: stats.away_corners },
+    { label: '犯规', home: stats.home_fouls, away: stats.away_fouls },
+    { label: '绝佳机会', home: stats.home_big_chances, away: stats.away_big_chances },
+    { label: '黄牌', home: stats.home_yellow_cards, away: stats.away_yellow_cards },
+    { label: '红牌', home: stats.home_red_cards, away: stats.away_red_cards },
+  ]
+  const hasAny = rows.some(r => r.home != null || r.away != null)
+  if (!hasAny) return null
+
+  // 控球率用横条展示
+  const possHome = stats.home_possession
+  const possAway = possHome != null ? Math.max(0, 100 - possHome) : null
+
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <h4 className="section-head mb-2">比赛统计</h4>
+
+      {/* 控球率横条 */}
+      {possHome != null && possAway != null && (
+        <div className="mb-3">
+          <div className="mb-1 flex justify-between text-2xs text-ink-500">
+            <span>{possHome.toFixed(0)}%</span>
+            <span className="text-ink-400">控球率</span>
+            <span>{possAway.toFixed(0)}%</span>
+          </div>
+          <div className="flex h-1.5 overflow-hidden rounded-full bg-ink-200">
+            <div className="bg-ink-700 transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${possHome}%` }} />
+            <div className="bg-ink-300 transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${possAway}%` }} />
+          </div>
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {/* 主客对比表 */}
+      <div className="overflow-x-auto">
+        <table className="w-full text-xs">
+          <thead>
+            <tr className="border-b border-ink-200 text-ink-400">
+              <th className="py-1.5 text-left font-medium">{homeName}</th>
+              <th className="py-1.5 text-center font-medium text-ink-500">统计项</th>
+              <th className="py-1.5 text-right font-medium">{awayName}</th>
+            </tr>
+          </thead>
+          <tbody>
+            {rows.filter(r => r.home != null || r.away != null).map(r => {
+              const h = r.home ?? 0
+              const a = r.away ?? 0
+              const winner = h > a ? 'home' : h < a ? 'away' : 'tie'
+              return (
+                <tr key={r.label} className="border-b border-ink-100">
+                  <td className={`py-1.5 text-right tabular-nums ${winner === 'home' ? 'font-bold text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
+                    {r.home ?? '—'}
+                  </td>
+                  <td className="py-1.5 text-center text-ink-500">{r.label}</td>
+                  <td className={`py-1.5 text-left tabular-nums ${winner === 'away' ? 'font-bold text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-500'}`}>
+                    {r.away ?? '—'}
+                  </td>
+                </tr>
+              )
+            })}
+          </tbody>
+        </table>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 近况/H2H 单区块 */
+function RecentBlock({ title, rows, side }: { title: string; rows?: TeamRecentMatch[]; side: 'home' | 'away' | 'h2h' }) {
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <h5 className="mb-1.5 text-2xs font-medium text-ink-500">{title}</h5>
+      {rows && rows.length > 0 ? (
+        <ul className="space-y-1">
+          {rows.map((r, i) => {
+            const date = r.match_date ? new Date(r.match_date).toLocaleDateString('zh-CN', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit' }) : '—'
+            const score = (r.home_goals != null && r.away_goals != null) ? `${r.home_goals}-${r.away_goals}` : 'vs'
+            const label = side === 'h2h'
+              ? `${r.home_team ?? '?'} ${score} ${r.away_team ?? '?'}`
+              : `${score}`
+            return (
+              <li key={i} className="flex items-center justify-between text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-600">
+                <span className="text-ink-400">{date}</span>
+                <span className="truncate">{label}</span>
+              </li>
+            )
+          })}
+        </ul>
+      ) : (
+        <p className="text-2xs text-ink-300">暂无</p>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 历史预测单行(含专家报告入口) */
+function PredictionHistoryRow({ p }: { p: MatchRecentPrediction }) {
+  const badge = p.status === 'degraded'
+    ? { label: 'degraded', cls: 'text-press' }
+    : p.settled
+      ? { label: p.correct_1x2 === undefined ? '已结算' : p.correct_1x2 ? '命中' : '未中', cls: p.correct_1x2 ? 'text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-400' }
+      : { label: p.status === 'success' ? '成功' : p.status, cls: 'text-ink-600' }
+  const score = (p.pred_home_goals != null && p.pred_away_goals != null)
+    ? `${p.pred_home_goals.toFixed(1)}-${p.pred_away_goals.toFixed(1)}`
+    : '—'
+  const alt = (p.alt_pred_home_goals != null && p.alt_pred_away_goals != null)
+    ? `${p.alt_pred_home_goals.toFixed(1)}-${p.alt_pred_away_goals.toFixed(1)}` : null
+  const hasAgents = p.agent_outputs && p.agent_outputs.length > 0
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-b border-ink-200 pb-2 last:border-b-0">
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-between text-xs">
+        <span className="tabular-nums text-ink-600">
+          {score} {p.pred_1x2 ? `(${p.pred_1x2})` : ''}
+          {alt && <span className="ml-1 text-ink-400">备选 {alt}</span>}
+        </span>
+        <span className="flex items-center gap-2">
+          {p.subjective_confidence != null && (
+            <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">信心 {Math.round(p.subjective_confidence * 100)}%</span>
+          )}
+          <span className={`text-2xs ${badge.cls}`}>{badge.label}</span>
+        </span>
+      </div>
+      <div className="mt-0.5 flex items-center justify-between text-2xs text-ink-400">
+        <span className="truncate">{p.model} · {p.mode} · {p.created_at ? new Date(p.created_at).toLocaleString('zh-CN', { month: '2-digit', day: '2-digit', hour: '2-digit', minute: '2-digit', hour12: false }) : '—'}</span>
+        {hasAgents && <span className="text-press">{p.agent_outputs!.length} 路专家报告</span>}
+      </div>
+      {p.reasoning && (
+        <p className="mt-1 line-clamp-2 font-serif text-2xs leading-relaxed text-ink-500">{p.reasoning}</p>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+// 详情懒加载取数在此文件内聚:页面只需切换 expandedId 并缓存结果
+export async function loadMatchDetailBundle(
+  matchId: number,
+): Promise<{ detail: MatchDetailOut | null; ctx: MatchContextOut | null }> {
+  const [d, c] = await Promise.all([
+    fetchMatchDetail(matchId).catch(() => null),
+    fetchMatchContext(matchId).catch(() => null),
+  ])
+  return { detail: d, ctx: c }
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/MatchPredictPanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,247 @@
+/**
+ * MatchPredictPanel: 预测弹窗全套(过程可视化 / 结果版面 / 专家意见)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。对外只导出 PredictModal;
+ * PredictionPanel 复用 Prediction 的 embedded 模式由弹窗内渲染。
+ */
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import TeamSideTag from '../../../components/TeamSideTag'
+import type { Match, Prediction } from '../types'
+import { AGENT_LABELS } from '../types'
+import { AgentsPanel } from './AgentsPanel'
+import { OutcomePanel } from './OutcomePanel'
+import { ReasoningPanel } from './ReasoningPanel'
+
+function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
+  return (
+    <svg
+      viewBox="0 0 20 20"
+      className={`h-3.5 w-3.5 animate-spin ${className}`}
+      fill="none"
+      aria-hidden="true"
+    >
+      <circle cx="10" cy="10" r="7.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeOpacity="0.25" />
+      <path d="M17.5 10A7.5 7.5 0 0010 2.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeLinecap="round" />
+    </svg>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 胜平负一行文字:选中的红字加方块标记,未选中的退灰 */
+.**
+ * P3-1:PredictionPanel 不再自绘,改为组合三个子组件:
+ *   OutcomePanel(比分/胜平负/成本) / AgentsPanel(专家意见) / ReasoningPanel(终裁/降级)。
+ * 渲染输出与拆分前完全一致(仅降级警示 + 报头 + 元信息仍在此处)。
+ */
+function PredictionPanel({
+  prediction,
+  match,
+  embedded = false,
+}: {
+  prediction: Prediction
+  match: Match
+  /** 弹窗嵌入模式:弹窗已提供报头,这里省略自带版头 */
+  embedded?: boolean
+}) {
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+  const reports = prediction.agent_outputs ?? []
+  const okReports = reports.filter(r => r.status === 'ok')
+
+  return (
+    <article className={embedded ? 'bg-paper-50' : 'border border-ink-900 bg-paper-50'}>
+      {!embedded && (
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-baseline justify-between gap-2 border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
+        <h3 className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+          预测版 ·
+          <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+          {homeName}
+          <span>对</span>
+          <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+          {awayName}
+        </h3>
+        <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+          {prediction.provider} / {prediction.model}
+          {prediction.latency_ms !== null && ` · ${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s`}
+        </span>
+      </div>
+      )}
+
+      <div className="space-y-7 px-4 py-6 sm:px-5">
+        {degraded && (
+          <div className="border-l-2 border-press bg-press-wash/40 px-4 py-3">
+            <p className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-press-dark">
+              {prediction.status === 'failed' ? '预测失败' : '预测降级(degraded)'}
+            </p>
+            <p className="mt-1.5 whitespace-pre-wrap text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+              {prediction.reasoning || '所有专家均无有效数据或调用失败,无法生成可靠比分。'}
+            </p>
+          </div>
+        )}
+
+        {!degraded && <OutcomePanel prediction={prediction} match={match} />}
+
+        <p className="text-center text-2xs text-ink-500">
+          `多专家模式 · ${okReports.length}/${reports.length} 路有效`
+          {prediction.prompt_version && ` · prompt ${prediction.prompt_version}`}
+        </p>
+
+        <AgentsPanel prediction={prediction} />
+
+        <ReasoningPanel prediction={prediction} />
+      </div>
+    </article>
+  )
+}
+
+function PredictProgress() {
+  const [elapsed, setElapsed] = useState(0)
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const t = setInterval(() => setElapsed(e => e + 0.5), 500)
+    return () => clearInterval(t)
+  }, [])
+
+  // 阶段阈值(秒): 切片 → 专家(各路依次点亮) → 终裁
+  const SLICE_END = 3
+  const AGENT_START = 4
+  const AGENT_STEP = 8        // 每路专家约 8s 点亮一路
+  const AGG_START = AGENT_START + AGENT_STEP * 5
+  const agents = ['form', 'stats', 'home_away', 'standings', 'h2h']
+
+  const phase = elapsed < SLICE_END ? 'slice'
+    : elapsed < AGG_START ? 'agents' : 'agg'
+
+  const pct = Math.min(95, Math.round((elapsed / 70) * 100))
+
+  return (
+    <div className="px-5 py-8 sm:px-8">
+      {/* 阶段标题 */}
+      <div className="flex items-center justify-center gap-2">
+        <Spinner className="text-press" />
+        <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+          {phase === 'slice' && '正在组装比赛数据切片'}
+          {phase === 'agents' && '五路专家并行分析中'}
+          {phase === 'agg' && '终裁专家汇总裁定中'}
+        </span>
+        <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">{elapsed.toFixed(0)}s</span>
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 进度条:渐进式,不封顶到 100% */}
+      <div className="mx-auto mt-5 h-1 w-full max-w-md overflow-hidden bg-ink-100" role="progressbar" aria-valuenow={pct}>
+        <div
+          className={`h-full bg-press transition-all duration-500 ${phase === 'agg' ? 'animate-pulse' : ''}`}
+          style={{ width: `${pct}%` }}
+        />
+      </div>
+
+      {/* 专家灯序(多专家模式) */}
+      <ul className="mx-auto mt-6 max-w-md space-y-1.5">
+          {agents.map((a, i) => {
+            const lit = elapsed >= AGENT_START + AGENT_STEP * (i + 1)
+            const activeNow = !lit && elapsed >= AGENT_START + AGENT_STEP * i
+            return (
+              <li
+                key={a}
+                className={`flex items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-200 pb-1.5 text-xs transition-colors ${
+                  lit ? 'text-ink-800' : activeNow ? 'text-ink-900' : 'text-ink-300'
+                }`}
+              >
+                <span className="flex items-center gap-2">
+                  <span
+                    aria-hidden="true"
+                    className={`inline-block h-1.5 w-1.5 ${lit ? 'bg-ink-900' : activeNow ? 'bg-press animate-pulse' : 'bg-ink-200'}`}
+                  />
+                  {AGENT_LABELS[a] ?? a}
+                </span>
+                {lit && <span className="text-2xs text-ink-400">✓ 完成</span>}
+                {activeNow && <span className="text-2xs text-press">分析中…</span>}
+              </li>
+            )
+          })}
+        </ul>
+
+      <p className="mt-6 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">
+        五路专家并行分析后终裁,约需 30-90 秒;多专家调用消耗较多 token,请按需使用。关闭窗口即取消
+      </p>
+      <p className="mt-1 text-center text-2xs text-ink-300">
+        提示:每分钟限 10 次预测,耗尽后需等待下一分钟。
+      </p>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+export function PredictModal({
+  match,
+  predicting,
+  prediction,
+  error,
+  onClose,
+}: {
+  match: Match
+  predicting: boolean
+  prediction: Prediction | null
+  error: string | null
+  onClose: () => void
+}) {
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    const h = (e: KeyboardEvent) => {
+      if (e.key === 'Escape') onClose()
+    }
+    document.addEventListener('keydown', h)
+    return () => document.removeEventListener('keydown', h)
+  }, [onClose])
+
+  return (
+    <div
+      className="fixed inset-0 z-50 flex items-start justify-center overflow-y-auto bg-ink-900/50 p-4 sm:items-center"
+      role="dialog"
+      aria-modal="true"
+      aria-label={`预测 ${homeName} 对 ${awayName}`}
+      onClick={e => {
+        if (e.target === e.currentTarget) onClose()
+      }}
+    >
+      <div className="relative flex max-h-[92vh] w-full max-w-2xl flex-col overflow-hidden bg-paper-50 shadow-2xl">
+        {/* 弹窗报头 */}
+        <div className="flex flex-shrink-0 items-center justify-between border-b border-ink-900 bg-paper-100 px-4 py-2.5 sm:px-5">
+          <h3 className="flex flex-wrap items-center gap-1.5 font-serif text-sm font-bold text-ink-900">
+            预测版 ·
+            <TeamSideTag side="home" />
+            {homeName}
+            <span>对</span>
+            <TeamSideTag side="away" />
+            {awayName}
+          </h3>
+          <button
+            onClick={onClose}
+            className="flex h-11 w-11 flex-shrink-0 items-center justify-center text-ink-400 transition-colors hover:text-ink-900"
+            aria-label="关闭"
+          >
+            <svg className="h-4 w-4" viewBox="0 0 20 20" fill="currentColor" aria-hidden="true">
+              <path d="M6.3 5.3a1 1 0 011.4 0L10 7.6l2.3-2.3a1 1 0 111.4 1.4L11.4 9l2.3 2.3a1 1 0 01-1.4 1.4L10 10.4l-2.3 2.3a1 1 0 01-1.4-1.4L8.6 9 6.3 6.7a1 1 0 010-1.4z" />
+            </svg>
+          </button>
+        </div>
+
+        {/* 弹窗体(小屏可滚动) */}
+        <div className="flex-1 overflow-y-auto">
+        {predicting ? (
+          <PredictProgress />
+        ) : error ? (
+          <div className="px-5 py-10 text-center sm:px-8">
+            <p className="font-serif text-sm font-bold text-press">预测失败</p>
+            <p className="mx-auto mt-3 max-w-md whitespace-pre-wrap text-left text-xs leading-relaxed text-ink-600">
+              {error}
+            </p>
+            <button onClick={onClose} className="btn btn-sm mt-6">关闭</button>
+          </div>
+        ) : prediction ? (
+          <PredictionPanel prediction={prediction} match={match} embedded />
+        ) : null}
+        </div>
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/OutcomePanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,126 @@
+/**
+ * OutcomePanel: 预测主结论 —— 比分 / 胜平负 / 置信度 / 成本。
+ *
+ * P3-1: 从 MatchPredictPanel.PredictionPanel 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。
+ */
+import TeamSideTag from '../../../../components/TeamSideTag'
+import type { Match, Prediction } from '../../types'
+import { OUTCOME_LABEL } from '../../types'
+
+/** 置信度细线:0~1 数值的低调可视化 */
+function Meter({ value }: { value: number }) {
+  const pct = Math.max(0, Math.min(100, Math.round(value * 100)))
+  return (
+    <div className="h-px w-full bg-ink-200" role="presentation">
+      <div className="h-px bg-press transition-[width] duration-500" style={{ width: `${pct}%` }} />
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 胜平负一行文字:选中的红字加方块标记,未选中的退灰 */
+function OutcomeLine({
+  pick,
+  confidence,
+}: {
+  pick: string | null
+  confidence: number | null
+}) {
+  const options = ['1', 'X', '2'] as const
+  return (
+    <div>
+      <div className="flex items-baseline justify-center gap-6 sm:gap-10">
+        {options.map(o => {
+          const on = pick === o
+          return (
+            <div key={o} className="flex flex-col items-center gap-1">
+              <span className={`flex items-center gap-1.5 text-sm ${on ? 'font-semibold text-press' : 'text-ink-400'}`}>
+                {on && <span className="inline-block h-2 w-2 bg-press" aria-hidden="true" />}
+                {OUTCOME_LABEL[o]}
+              </span>
+              {on && confidence !== null && (
+                <span className="text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-500">
+                  置信 {Math.round(confidence * 100)}%
+                </span>
+              )}
+            </div>
+          )
+        })}
+      </div>
+      {pick && confidence !== null && (
+        <div className="mx-auto mt-3 max-w-xs">
+          <Meter value={confidence} />
+          <p className="mt-1 text-center text-2xs text-ink-400">主观置信度,非统计概率</p>
+        </div>
+      )}
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 预测成本展示:耗时 + token + 限流余量 */
+function PredictionCost({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
+  const latency = prediction.latency_ms != null ? `${(prediction.latency_ms / 1000).toFixed(1)}s` : null
+  const tokens = prediction.prompt_tokens != null || prediction.completion_tokens != null
+    ? `${prediction.prompt_tokens ?? '?'}/${prediction.completion_tokens ?? '?'}`
+    : null
+
+  if (!latency && !tokens && prediction.rate_limit_remaining == null) return null
+
+  return (
+    <div className="border-t border-ink-200 pt-3 text-2xs text-ink-500">
+      <div className="flex flex-wrap items-center justify-center gap-x-4 gap-y-1">
+        {latency && (
+          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
+            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">⏱</span>耗时 {latency}
+          </span>
+        )}
+        {tokens && (
+          <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-1">
+            <span aria-hidden="true" className="opacity-60">Tok</span>prompt/completion: {tokens}
+          </span>
+        )}
+        {prediction.rate_limit_remaining != null && prediction.rate_limit_remaining <= 3 && (
+          <span className="text-press" title="每分钟最多 10 次预测">
+            剩余配额: {prediction.rate_limit_remaining}/10(分钟)
+          </span>
+        )}
+      </div>
+    </div>
+  )
+}
+
+export function OutcomePanel({ prediction, match }: { prediction: Prediction; match: Match }) {
+  const homeName = match.home_team_zh || match.home_team
+  const awayName = match.away_team_zh || match.away_team
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+
+  return (
+    <>
+      {!degraded && (
+        <div className="text-center">
+          <p className="font-serif text-5xl font-bold tabular-nums leading-none text-ink-900 sm:text-6xl">
+            {prediction.pred_home_goals ?? '-'}
+            <span className="mx-3 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>
+            {prediction.pred_away_goals ?? '-'}
+          </p>
+          <p className="mt-3 text-2xs tracking-[0.5em] text-ink-400">预测比分</p>
+          {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals != null && prediction.alt_pred_away_goals != null && (
+            <p className="mt-2 text-2xs tabular-nums text-ink-400">
+              备选{' '}
+              <span className="font-serif text-sm font-bold tabular-nums text-ink-600">
+                {prediction.alt_pred_home_goals}<span className="mx-0.5 font-normal text-ink-300">:</span>{prediction.alt_pred_away_goals}
+              </span>
+            </p>
+          )}
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {!degraded && (
+        <div className="border-y border-ink-200 py-4">
+          <OutcomeLine pick={prediction.pred_1x2} confidence={prediction.subjective_confidence} />
+        </div>
+      )}
+
+      {!degraded && <PredictionCost prediction={prediction} />}
+    </>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/components/ReasoningPanel.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,34 @@
+/**
+ * ReasoningPanel: 终裁意见 / 降级原因 —— 预测的文本解释。
+ *
+ * P3-1: 从 MatchPredictPanel.PredictionPanel 拆出,渲染逻辑原样搬迁。
+ */
+import type { Prediction } from '../../types'
+
+export function ReasoningPanel({ prediction }: { prediction: Prediction }) {
+  const degraded = prediction.status === 'degraded' || prediction.status === 'failed'
+
+  if (!prediction.reasoning) return null
+
+  // 降级态:reasoning 展示为「降级原因」
+  if (degraded) {
+    return (
+      <section>
+        <h4 className="section-head mb-2">降级原因</h4>
+        <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
+          <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
+        </blockquote>
+      </section>
+    )
+  }
+
+  // 成功态:reasoning 展示为「终裁意见」
+  return (
+    <section>
+      <h4 className="section-head mb-3">终裁意见</h4>
+      <blockquote className="border-l-2 border-press pl-4">
+        <p className="whitespace-pre-wrap font-serif text-sm leading-loose text-ink-700">{prediction.reasoning}</p>
+      </blockquote>
+    </section>
+  )
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/hooks/useLeagues.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+/**
+ * 公开站联赛列表(P1-3):优先请求 GET /api/v1/leagues,
+ * 失败或返回空数组则回退本地五大联赛常量(LEAGUES)。
+ *
+ * 显示名规则:常量里已有的 code 沿用中文标签(保持现有 UI 语言不变),
+ * 新增联赛用 API 返回的 name;排序按常量顺序优先、新联赛按 API 返回序追加。
+ * API 仅返回 {id, code, name, country},无敏感配置字段。
+ */
+import { useEffect, useState } from 'react'
+import { fetchLeagues } from '../../../admin/dal'
+import { LEAGUES } from '../types'
+
+export function useLeagues(): { code: string; name: string }[] {
+  const [leagues, setLeagues] = useState(LEAGUES)
+
+  useEffect(() => {
+    let alive = true
+    ;(async () => {
+      // dal.fetchLeagues 已兜底:网络/权限异常时返回 []
+      const rows = await fetchLeagues()
+      if (!alive || rows.length === 0) return
+      const zhName = new Map(LEAGUES.map(l => [l.code, l.name] as const))
+      const rank = new Map(LEAGUES.map((l, i) => [l.code, i] as const))
+      const merged = rows
+        .slice()
+        .sort(
+          (a, b) => (rank.get(a.code) ?? LEAGUES.length) - (rank.get(b.code) ?? LEAGUES.length),
+        )
+        .map(l => ({ code: l.code, name: zhName.get(l.code) ?? l.name }))
+      setLeagues(merged)
+    })()
+    return () => {
+      alive = false
+    }
+  }, [])
+
+  return leagues
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/hooks/useMatchPredict.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,93 @@
+/**
+ * useMatchPredict: 预测流程状态机(发起/进行中/结果/失败/关闭中止)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 拆出。语义不变:
+ *  - 连点防护:同一场比赛预测中再次点击直接忽略
+ *  - 竞态防护:递增序号,过期响应丢弃
+ *  - 关闭弹窗 = 中止在途请求 + 序号失效(catch/then 不再写入)
+ *  - 5 分钟超时,与 nginx 代理 300s 对齐
+ */
+import { useRef, useState } from 'react'
+import { http } from '../../../lib/http'
+import type { Match, Prediction } from '../types'
+
+/** 把后端/网络错误翻译成用户可读文案 */
+function readablePredictError(e: unknown): string {
+  if (e instanceof Error) {
+    const m = e.message
+    if (/429/.test(m)) {
+      // 429 来自后端限流(每分钟 10 次),非上游 LLM
+      return '操作过于频繁:每分钟最多 10 次预测。为保护 LLM 额度,请稍后再试。'
+    }
+    if (/502/.test(m)) return 'LLM 服务暂时不可用(502),请稍后重试'
+    if (/402|Payment Required|额度|余额/.test(m)) return 'LLM 额度不足(402),请检查 API Key 余额'
+    if (/400|已完赛/.test(m)) return '该比赛已完赛,不再支持预测'
+    if (/409|已结算/.test(m)) return '该预测已结算,不能重新预测'
+    if (/timeout|超时|timed out/i.test(m)) return '请求超时,请稍后重试'
+    return m
+  }
+  return String(e)
+}
+
+interface UseMatchPredictOptions {
+  /** 共享 error state(拆分前列表与预测共用同一个 error,行为保持一致) */
+  onError: (msg: string | null) => void
+}
+
+export function useMatchPredict({ onError }: UseMatchPredictOptions) {
+  const [predictingId, setPredictingId] = useState<number | null>(null)
+  const [prediction, setPrediction] = useState<Prediction | null>(null)
+  const [predictionFor, setPredictionFor] = useState<Match | null>(null)
+  const predictSeq = useRef(0)
+  // 预测请求控制器:关闭弹窗时中止
+  const predictAbort = useRef<AbortController | null>(null)
+
+  function closePredict() {
+    predictAbort.current?.abort()
+    predictSeq.current++  // 令中止请求的 catch/then 全部失效,不再写入错误
+    setPredictingId(null)
+    setPrediction(null)
+    setPredictionFor(null)
+    onError(null)
+  }
+
+  const predict = async (m: Match) => {
+    // 防连点:若该场比赛已在预测中,直接忽略
+    if (predictingId === m.id) return
+    const seq = ++predictSeq.current
+    setPredictingId(m.id)
+    onError(null)
+    setPrediction(null)
+    setPredictionFor(m)
+    // LLM 多专家预测耗时可达数分钟,给足超时(与 nginx 代理 300s 对齐)
+    const controller = new AbortController()
+    predictAbort.current = controller
+    const timer = setTimeout(() => controller.abort(), 300_000)
+    try {
+      const data = await http.post<Prediction>('/predict', { match_id: m.id, mode: 'multi' }, {
+        timeoutMs: 300_000,
+        signal: controller.signal,
+      })
+      if (seq !== predictSeq.current) return
+      setPrediction(data)
+    } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== predictSeq.current) return
+      onError(
+        e instanceof DOMException && e.name === 'AbortError'
+          ? '预测超时(5 分钟),请稍后重试'
+          : readablePredictError(e),
+      )
+    } finally {
+      clearTimeout(timer)
+      if (seq === predictSeq.current) setPredictingId(null)
+    }
+  }
+
+  return {
+    predictingId,
+    prediction,
+    predictionFor,
+    predict,
+    closePredict,
+  }
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/hooks/useMatchesList.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,94 @@
+/**
+ * useMatchesList: 赛程列表数据获取(筛选/游标分页/进行中比赛)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 拆出。竞态防护语义不变 —— 递增序号只认最后一次请求;
+ * loadMore 不自增序号(切换筛选才自增,翻页跟随当前序列)。
+ */
+import { useCallback, useEffect, useRef, useState } from 'react'
+import { http } from '../../../lib/http'
+import type { Match } from '../types'
+
+interface UseMatchesListOptions {
+  /** 共享 error state(拆分前列表与预测共用同一个 error,行为保持一致) */
+  onError: (msg: string | null) => void
+}
+
+export function useMatchesList({ onError }: UseMatchesListOptions) {
+  const [league, setLeague] = useState('E0')
+  const [status, setStatus] = useState('scheduled')
+  const [matches, setMatches] = useState<Match[]>([])
+  const [nextCursor, setNextCursor] = useState<string | null>(null)
+  const [loadingMore, setLoadingMore] = useState(false)
+  const [loading, setLoading] = useState(false)
+  const [showAllUpcoming, setShowAllUpcoming] = useState(false)  // 默认仅展示未来 3 天;true 展开全部
+  const [liveMatches, setLiveMatches] = useState<Match[]>([])  // 进行中比赛(顶部独立区块)
+
+  // 请求竞态防护:切换联赛/状态很快时,先发的慢请求可能后返回,
+  // 把旧结果覆盖到新筛选上。用递增序号只认最后一次请求的响应。
+  const loadSeq = useRef(0)
+
+  const load = useCallback(async () => {
+    const seq = ++loadSeq.current
+    setLoading(true)
+    setLoadingMore(false)
+    setShowAllUpcoming(false)  // 切换筛选重置为「未来 3 天」视图
+    onError(null)
+    try {
+      const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status, limit: '50' })
+      const data = await http.get<{ items: Match[]; next_cursor: string | null }>(`/matches?${params}`)
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return // 已有更新的请求,丢弃本次结果
+      setMatches(data.items)
+      setNextCursor(data.next_cursor ?? null)
+    } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      onError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
+    } finally {
+      if (seq === loadSeq.current) setLoading(false)
+    }
+  }, [league, status, onError])
+
+  // 加载下一页(游标分页)
+  const loadMore = async () => {
+    if (!nextCursor || loadingMore) return
+    const seq = loadSeq.current // 不做自增:切换筛选会自增,这里只跟随当前序列
+    setLoadingMore(true)
+    try {
+      const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status, limit: '50', cursor: nextCursor })
+      const data = await http.get<{ items: Match[]; next_cursor: string | null }>(`/matches?${params}`)
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      setMatches(prev => [...prev, ...data.items])
+      setNextCursor(data.next_cursor ?? null)
+    } catch (e) {
+      if (seq !== loadSeq.current) return
+      onError(e instanceof Error ? e.message : String(e))
+    } finally {
+      if (seq === loadSeq.current) setLoadingMore(false)
+    }
+  }
+
+  // 加载进行中比赛(顶部独立区块)
+  const loadLive = useCallback(async () => {
+    try {
+      const params = new URLSearchParams({ league, status: 'in_play', limit: '20' })
+      const data = await http.get<{ items: Match[] }>(`/matches?${params}`)
+      setLiveMatches(data.items ?? [])
+    } catch {
+      /* ignore:进行中非核心功能 */
+    }
+  }, [league])
+
+  useEffect(() => { load(); loadLive() }, [load, loadLive])
+
+  return {
+    league, setLeague,
+    status, setStatus,
+    matches,
+    nextCursor,
+    loading,
+    loadingMore,
+    showAllUpcoming, setShowAllUpcoming,
+    liveMatches,
+    load,
+    loadMore,
+  }
+}

frontend/src/pages/matches/types.ts

@@ -0,0 +1,100 @@
+/**
+ * Matches 页面族共享类型与常量。
+ *
+ * D3(工程债): Matches.tsx 原本 ~1400 行,类型/常量/预测面板/详情面板/
+ * 列表逻辑全部内联。本文件是拆分后的共享层 —— 只放数据契约与纯常量,
+ * 不含 React 组件。
+ */
+
+/** /matches 列表项(公开接口) */
+export interface Match {
+  id: number
+  league_code: string | null
+  season: string | null
+  home_team: string
+  away_team: string
+  home_team_zh: string | null
+  away_team_zh: string | null
+  match_date: string
+  match_status: string
+  home_goals: number | null
+  away_goals: number | null
+  match_stage: string | null
+  home_xg: number | null
+  away_xg: number | null
+}
+
+/** POST /predict 响应 */
+export interface Prediction {
+  prediction_id: number
+  provider: string
+  model: string
+  prompt_version: string | null
+  mode: string
+  pred_home_goals: number | null
+  pred_away_goals: number | null
+  alt_pred_home_goals: number | null
+  alt_pred_away_goals: number | null
+  pred_1x2: string | null
+  subjective_confidence: number | null
+  reasoning: string | null
+  status: string
+  agent_outputs: AgentReport[] | null
+  agent_weights: Record<string, number> | null
+  context: string
+  latency_ms: number | null
+  prompt_tokens: number | null
+  completion_tokens: number | null
+  rate_limit_remaining: number | null
+}
+
+/** 多专家单路报告 */
+export interface AgentReport {
+  agent: string
+  status: string
+  data_sufficiency: string
+  analysis: string
+  home_edge: number | null
+  subjective_confidence: number | null
+  key_evidence: string[]
+  exp_home_goals: number | null
+  exp_away_goals: number | null
+  probable_score: string | null
+  model: string
+  latency_ms: number | null
+}
+
+export const AGENT_LABELS: Record<string, string> = {
+  h2h: '历史交锋分析专家',
+  form: '近期状态分析专家',
+  stats: '攻防数据分析专家',
+  home_away: '主客因素分析专家',
+  standings: '联赛排名分析专家',
+}
+
+export const LEAGUES = [
+  { code: 'E0', name: '英超' },
+  { code: 'SP1', name: '西甲' },
+  { code: 'D1', name: '德甲' },
+  { code: 'I1', name: '意甲' },
+  { code: 'F1', name: '法甲' },
+  { code: 'CL', name: '欧冠' },
+  { code: 'EL', name: '欧联' },
+]
+
+/** 汉字编号,给专家意见排版用 */
+export const CN_NUM = ['一', '二', '三', '四', '五', '六', '七', '八']
+
+export const STATUS_META: Record<string, { label: string; cls: string }> = {
+  finished: { label: '已完赛', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  scheduled: { label: '未开赛', cls: 'text-ink-600' },
+  // 键与 normalize.py 的 VALID_STATUS 对齐: 库里存的是 in_play(上游 live 被归一化),不存在 'live' 状态
+  in_play: { label: '进行中', cls: 'text-press font-medium' },
+  paused: { label: '暂停', cls: 'text-press font-medium' },
+  postponed: { label: '延期', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  cancelled: { label: '取消', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+  suspended: { label: '中止', cls: 'text-ink-400' },
+}
+
+/** 1x2 → 中文标签 */
+export const OUTCOME_LABEL: Record<string, string> = { '1': '主胜', X: '平局', '2': '客胜' }

frontend/src/pages/matches/ui.tsx

@@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
+/**
+ * Matches 页面族共享的原子 UI 小件(无业务状态)。
+ *
+ * D3: 从 Matches.tsx 内联定义上移到模块级 —— Switch 原先定义在组件函数
+ * 体内(每次渲染重建组件对象),它没有内部 state,提升后渲染结果一致。
+ */
+import type { Match } from './types'
+
+export function Spinner({ className = '' }: { className?: string }) {
+  return (
+    <svg
+      viewBox="0 0 20 20"
+      className={`h-3.5 w-3.5 animate-spin ${className}`}
+      fill="none"
+      aria-hidden="true"
+    >
+      <circle cx="10" cy="10" r="7.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeOpacity="0.25" />
+      <path d="M17.5 10A7.5 7.5 0 0010 2.5" stroke="currentColor" strokeWidth="1.5" strokeLinecap="round" />
+    </svg>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 骨架占位行:低调脉动灰块 */
+export function SkeletonRows({ n = 4 }: { n?: number }) {
+  return (
+    <>
+      {Array.from({ length: n }).map((_, i) => (
+        <div key={i} className="flex items-center gap-4 border-b border-ink-200 px-1 py-3.5">
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 w-16" />
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 flex-1" />
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 w-10" />
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 flex-1" />
+          <div className="skeleton h-3 w-16" />
+        </div>
+      ))}
+    </>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 状态/模式一组的文字切换 */
+export function Switch({ value, onChange, items }: {
+  value: string
+  onChange: (v: string) => void
+  items: { v: string; label: string; title?: string }[]
+}) {
+  return (
+    <span className="inline-flex items-center gap-2.5">
+      {items.map((it, i) => (
+        <span key={it.v} className="inline-flex items-center gap-2.5">
+          {i > 0 && <span className="text-ink-300" aria-hidden="true">/</span>}
+          <button
+            onClick={() => onChange(it.v)}
+            title={it.title}
+            className={`relative tab ${value === it.v ? 'tab-on' : ''} text-xs`}
+          >
+            {it.label}
+          </button>
+        </span>
+      ))}
+    </span>
+  )
+}
+
+/** 日期分组头显示:今日/明天/周几 · 年月日 */
+export function formatDateHeader(dateKey: string): string {
+  if (!dateKey) return '未开赛'
+  const d = new Date(dateKey + 'T00:00:00')
+  if (isNaN(d.getTime())) return dateKey
+  const today = new Date()
+  const todayKey = `${today.getFullYear()}-${String(today.getMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(today.getDate()).padStart(2, '0')}`
+  const tmr = new Date(today)
+  tmr.setDate(tmr.getDate() + 1)
+  const tmrKey = `${tmr.getFullYear()}-${String(tmr.getMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(tmr.getDate()).padStart(2, '0')}`
+  const weekday = ['周日', '周一', '周二', '周三', '周四', '周五', '周六'][d.getDay()]
+  if (dateKey === todayKey) return `今日 ${weekday}`
+  if (dateKey === tmrKey) return `明日 ${weekday}`
+  return `${d.getMonth() + 1}月${d.getDate()}日 ${weekday}`
+}
+
+/** UTC ISO → 本地日期 YYYY-MM-DD(用于分组) */
+export function toLocalDateKey(iso: string): string {
+  const d = new Date(iso)
+  return `${d.getFullYear()}-${String(d.getMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(d.getDate()).padStart(2, '0')}`
+}
+
+/** 按本地日期分组(非 UTC),保持时间序 */
+export function groupByDate(list: Match[]): Array<[string, Match[]]> {
+  const map = new Map<string, Match[]>()
+  for (const m of list) {
+    const key = toLocalDateKey(m.match_date)
+    const arr = map.get(key)
+    if (arr) arr.push(m)
+    else map.set(key, [m])
+  }
+  return [...map.entries()]
+}
+
+/** 日期 key 辅助:YYYY-MM-DD(本地时区) */
+function dateKey(d: Date): string {
+  return `${d.getFullYear()}-${String(d.getMonth() + 1).padStart(2, '0')}-${String(d.getDate()).padStart(2, '0')}`
+}
+
+/** 未来 3 天窗口:今天 00:00 → 第 3 天 00:00(即今天/明天/后天) */
+function addDays(d: Date, n: number): string {
+  const x = new Date(d)
+  x.setFullYear(x.getFullYear(), x.getMonth(), x.getDate() + n)
+  return dateKey(x)
+}
+
+/** 比赛是否在未来 3 天内(用于默认视图过滤) */
+export function withinNext3Days(matchDate: string): boolean {
+  const key = toLocalDateKey(matchDate)
+  return key >= dateKey(new Date()) && key < addDays(new Date(), 3)
+}

frontend/tailwind.config.js

@@ -1,6 +1,63 @@
 /** @type {import('tailwindcss').Config} */
 export default {
   content: ['./index.html', './src/**/*.{ts,tsx}'],
-  theme: { extend: {} },
+  theme: {
+    extend: {
+      colors: {
+        // 纸白:微暖底色,像新闻纸而不是纯白画布
+        paper: {
+          50: '#FDFCF8',
+          100: '#F7F4EC',
+          200: '#EDE9DE',
+          300: '#DDD7C7',
+        },
+        // 墨色:暖黑灰阶,替代冷调 slate
+        ink: {
+          50: '#FAF9F7',
+          100: '#F0EEE9',
+          200: '#E2DFD7',
+          300: '#C9C4B8',
+          400: '#9C9587',
+          500: '#6E675B',
+          600: '#524C42',
+          700: '#3B362E',
+          800: '#282420',
+          900: '#17140F',
+        },
+        // 印报红:全站唯一强调色,克制使用
+        press: {
+          DEFAULT: '#9E1B1B',
+          dark: '#7C1414',
+          wash: '#F7E9E4',
+        },
+      },
+      fontFamily: {
+        // 毛体草书(国内 CDN)+ 粗楷体回退
+        brush: ['"Liu Jian Mao Cao"', '"KaiTi"', '"STKaiti"', '"Kaiti SC"', '"楷体"', '"Songti SC"', 'serif'],
+        // 标题与比分:宋体血统,报纸版面的骨架
+        serif: [
+          'Georgia',
+          '"Times New Roman"',
+          '"Songti SC"',
+          'STSong',
+          'SimSun',
+          '"Noto Serif CJK SC"',
+          'serif',
+        ],
+        // 正文:中文黑体栈
+        sans: [
+          '"PingFang SC"',
+          '"Hiragino Sans GB"',
+          '"Microsoft YaHei"',
+          '"Noto Sans CJK SC"',
+          'sans-serif',
+        ],
+        mono: ['ui-monospace', 'SFMono-Regular', 'Menlo', 'Consolas', 'monospace'],
+      },
+      fontSize: {
+        '2xs': ['11px', { lineHeight: '16px' }],
+      },
+    },
+  },
   plugins: [],
 }

pyproject.toml

@@ -12,13 +12,17 @@ dependencies = [
     "asyncpg>=0.29",
     "psycopg2-binary>=2.9",
     "httpx>=0.27",
+    "alembic>=1.13",
+    "cryptography>=42.0",
+    "croniter>=2.0",
 ]
 
 [project.optional-dependencies]
+# 开发/CI 依赖:本地安装用 pip install -e ".[dev]",CI 用 pip-sync requirements-dev.txt
 dev = [
     "pytest>=8.0",
     "pytest-asyncio>=0.23",
-    "httpx>=0.27",
+    "pip-tools>=7.0",
 ]
 
 [build-system]